NFL Picks Against the Spread: Super Bowl LV

Kansas City Chiefs (16-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (14-5)
Line: Chiefs by 3.5. Total: 56.5.
Sunday, Feb. 7, 6:30 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Buccaneers.

WEEK 20 RECAP: The first round of the playoffs was a disaster, but the second and third rounds were much better. We hit both of our Week 20 selections, making us 5-1 in the past two NFL weeks. It’s definitely nice to rebound from that dreadful 1-5 outcome in Week 18. By the way, if you want to support this site, check out my new book!



In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

If you’re unaware of this, you can publish your own articles on this Web site and have them promoted via Twitter, Facebook and this page! Check out our Open Rant feature, where articles get promoted all the time. Some readers’ articles have gotten more than 3,000 views (one even had 100,000!), so if you want to get your opinion heard, here’s a great way for you to do so!

Some recent Open Rant articles:

Coaches on the Hot Seat Heading into 2021

Every 2021 Starting Quarterback That Isn’t Obvious

Sam Darnold and the Sunk Cost Theory

If you want to create NFL Mock Drafts and NBA Mock Drafts, we have you covered as well. Check out the Mock Draft Builder. Some mocks on here have gotten more than 6,000 views!

Some featured NFL Mock Drafts in the MDB:

NoHeroes94 NFL Mock Draft

Unimaginative NFL Mock Draft

KKunert327 NFL Mock Draft

Brock16 NFL Mock Draft

TonyR1124 NFL Mock Draft

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started seven years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Tom Brady, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I had plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

Emmitt on the Brink Season 13 is complete! Emmitt and his bastard son, Emmitt Snow Jr., battle the Giant Bear in an attempt to put an end to the pandemic.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called Melvin Capital, Citadel and Other Billionaire Hedge Funds. I discuss all the nonsense surrounding GameStop stock!

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Dan Fouts and Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Tampa Bay, where the Chiefs will battle my Philadelphia Eagles. Everyone is saying the Buccaneers are in the Super Game, but it’s clearly the Eagles because I said so. The 30,000 soldiers surrounding the locker rooms say so as well, so you want to fight me about it? I’m a billionaire, after all. That’s because I was able to sell all my Nick Foles bobbleheads for $325,000 apiece. I had 4,000 Nick Foles bobbleheads in my storage unit, and I sold them all when the price of them went from 2 cents to $325,000!

Emmitt: Reilly, I cannot belief the price of Nick Folds bubble head went from 2 cent to $325,000. I cannot even count how high $325,000 happen to be. It probably greater than a million dollar!

Reilly: Emmitt, I’m going to spend some of my billions on grammar and math lessons for you. But you’re right, the price spike caught me by surprise. Apparently, 140 percent of Nick Foles bobbleheads were shorted. Who would do this?

Tollefson: Don’t look at me, Reilly. The only shorting I do is getting rid of kidnapped women who are unwilling to cook and clean naked for me. And by shorting, let’s just say that I tie them up in bags and dump them into the Delaware River!

Reilly: You’re so cool, Tolly. Now that I have lots of money, I can buy lots of women and have them cook and clean for me. Except, not naked because Mother says my virgin eyes will bleed if I look at a naked woman other than herself. Anyway, let’s hear from our award-winning female football analyst, Tara Muller!

Tara Muller: I love football! Football is so much fun! This Chiefs vs. Eagles game will be great! Buying bobbleheads sounds cool! I sold my Nick Foles bobbleheads, too! What a profit!

Reilly: Wow, I think I found my dream girl! I’m going to ask Tara out on a date if Mother says it’s OK. Maybe she’ll drive us to the movies. I’m sure she’ll want to sit in between us, but that’s OK!

Jason Witten: Hello, my name is Jason Witten and I just came out of retirement. Guys, I heard some talk about dates. Dates are like days, except they have numbers instead of words to describe those days. Because if they had words, they would be days, but they’re numbers, so they’re dates. Dates are numbers, because if you have dates, you have numbers, and if you have days, you have letters, even though there are seven days, which is a number, but that doesn’t mean that days are suddenly numbers. Days are words even though I just said numbers, just like dates are numbers, but also words if you spell them out.

Reilly: Jason Whitlock, I can see you’re as clueless as ever, so I’m going to spend some of my billions on logic lessons for you. Because you’re an idiot! Guys, will you also help me figure out who shorted the Nick Foles bobbleheads? I’d like to shove my money in their face!

Fouts: And here’s what he means by shorting. When you’re shorting bobbleheads, you’re doing the opposite of longing bobbleheads. Shorting is shorter than longing, so if you’re longing, you’re buying for the long haul, but if you’re shorting, you’re selling for the short haul.

Wolfley: DAN, BE CAREFUL. IF YOU DON’T MENTION THAT YOU’RE NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR ON EARTH, YOU’LL GET INTO TROUBLE. IF YOU DON’T MENTION THAT YOU’RE NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR ON MY HOME PLANET, YOU’LL BE TURNED INTO A TOASTER WITH THREE EYEBALLS AND FOUR BALLS IN THE LOWER REGION, IF YOU KNOW WHAT I MEAN. AND I CANNOT ENVISION A WORSE FATE.

Reilly: No one cares about your home planet, you idiot. If you won’t help me figure out who shorted the Nick Foles bobbleheads, maybe New Daddy will help me figure it out. Right, New Daddy? Now that I’m rich, you’ll have to pay attention to me!

Cutler: Wait, who are you again?

Reilly: NEW DADDY, I’LL SPEND BILLIONS TO BUY YOUR LOVE!!!

Alyssa Milano: WHHHAAATTTT!?!?!?!?!?!? Ex-ca-use me! Why is it that when we talk about love on here, it has to do with a son and his father!? That’s glorifying the patriarchy, which needs no glorification! The patriarchy is evil, and it must be stopped at all cost! If I hear anything else about the patriarchy, I’m calling 9-1-1 even though all cops are evil!

Reilly: I’m going to spend my billions on helping Alyssa through her troubled times. Speaking of troubled times, Charles Davis, you’re not looking too good.

Charles Davis: Kevin, looks like we’re talking about troubled times, Kevin. I’m having troubles, Kevin. I shorted Nick Foles bobbleheads at 2 cents, Kevin. Then, the price rose, and I shorted at 5 cents, Kevin. Then, the price rose, and I shorted at 10 cents, Kevin. Then, the price rose, and I shorted at 50 cents, Kevin. Then, the price rose, and I shorted at $1, Kevin. Then, the price rose, and I shorted at $5, Kevin. Then, the price rose, and I shorted at $15, Kevin. Then, the price rose, and I shorted at $50, Kevin. Then, the price rose, and I shorted at $100, Kevin. Then, the price rose, and I shorted at $250, Kevin. Then, the price rose, and I shorted at $1,000, Kevin. Then, the price rose, and I shorted at $5,000, Kevin. Then, the price rose, and I shorted at $10,000, Kevin. Then, the price rose, and I shorted at $50,000, Kevin. Then, the price rose, and I shorted at $100,000, Kevin. Now, I’m living in a cardboard box, Kevin. Because the brokerage took everything, Kevin. Everything, Kevin. Do you have a dollar to spare, Kevin? I’d like to buy some food, Kevin.

Reilly: BUHAHAHAAHAHAHA! I HAVE NO MONEY TO SPARE, SCUMBAG! THIS IS WHAT YOU GET FOR ANNOYING ME ALL THESE YEARS! NOW, I’M A BILLIONAIRE, AND I FINALLY HAVE MY REVENGE!!! We’ll be back after this!

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Both Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill were on pace for 800 yards each after the first quarter of the Week 12 matchup against the Buccaneers. They were unstoppable to open the game, with Mahomes hitting Hill for numerous big plays. Kansas City opened the game with a 17-0 lead after the first frame. It appeared as though the Chiefs would run away with an easy victory.

Despite this, the Chiefs scored just 10 points the rest of the way, and only seven in the second half. Their offense bogged down once they crossed midfield. Mahomes saw tons of pressure and had to throw lots of passes away. Those big plays to Hill were suddenly a thing of the past.

The offensive line is imperative in this rematch, especially in the wake of Eric Fisher’s injury. The Kansas City left tackle got hurt in the AFC Championship and won’t be available for the Super Bowl. That means the Chiefs will be without three offensive linemen, in all likelihood: Fisher, Mitchell Schwartz and Kelechi Osemele. There’s a chance Schwartz could return, but Andy Reid said he’s not optimistic about his availability for this game.

If Schwartz is sidelined, it’s going to be difficult for the Chiefs to consistently maintain drives. That may sound silly to say because Mahomes has been unstoppable in the playoffs thus far, but the Buccaneers’ elite defensive line, which didn’t have Vita Vea in the Week 12 matchup, will be able to dominate in the trenches, causing Mahomes to take lots of sacks and hits when he’s not forced into heaving the ball out of bounds as a result of pressure. Mahomes will still do some damage because he, Hill and Travis Kelce are so great, but there will definitely not be an offensive explosion.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Tom Brady didn’t have the early success Mahomes enjoyed in the aforementioned Week 12 affair. Some of that was bad luck. Brady had two interceptions that were tipped at the line of scrimmage, and Mike Evans dropped a deep pass in the opening half. Some of that was also missing personnel. The Buccaneers didn’t have Donovan Smith available for the game, so Brady saw more pressure than normal.

Smith will be available to play this game, so the Buccaneers should do a fine job of blocking the Chiefs’ defensive line. Having more time at his disposal, Brady will have more success connecting with his two elite receivers. Cameron Brate and Rob Gronkowski will also have success versus a dubious Kansas City linebacking corps.

The Buccaneers will have plenty of success rushing the ball as well. Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones were able to combine for just 12 carries in Week 12 because of the early deficit, but with the Chiefs unlikely to jump out to a big lead again, Tampa will be able to run more frequently. Fournette and Jones will have more success in their rushes in the rematch because of Smith’s presence.

RECAP: Every opinion I’ve heard on this game says that the Chiefs will win easily. Nearly two-thirds of the betting action is on Kansas City -3. This seems like the easiest bet in the world to people.

I don’t get it. This is a true coin flip as far as I’m concerned. I think this will be a very tight game, and either team has an equal chance of winning. If the Chiefs had a healthy offensive line, things would be different. However, that’s not the case. They’re likely to miss three blockers versus one of the top defensive fronts in the NFL. I can’t emphasize how much of an advantage this is for the Buccaneers. If the Chiefs had just a good quarterback, they’d stand no chance in this matchup.

Mahomes, however, is the X-factor, so he could find a way to pull out a victory. Remember, he did this in last year’s Super Bowl versus San Francisco. He was under siege the entire game, allowing the 49ers to hold a lead for most of the evening. Mahomes succeeded in the end, but only because San Francisco couldn’t score any points in the fourth quarter as a result of Jimmy Garoppolo’s incompetence. Brady will be able to put up points, unlike Garoppolo.

I think this will be a very close game, with the winner likely prevailing by three points. With that in mind, I LOVE the +3.5 we can get at BetUS right now, or even the +3.5 -124 at Bookmaker. At that number, this will be a huge play on the Buccaneers. In fact, it’s my January NFL Pick of the Month.

Now, I know you’re concerned about betting against Mahomes. It’s terrifying, believe me. But with all the hype the Chiefs are getting, as well as the insane number of injuries on Kansas City’s offensive line, the Buccaneers seem like a great play to me. Besides, the better quarterback usually doesn’t cover in the Super Bowl. Take a look:

2000 – Kerry Collins over Trent Dilfer: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2001 – Kurt Warner over Tom Brady: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2002 – Rich Gannon over Brad Johnson: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2003 – Tom Brady over Jake Delhomme: Win SU, Loss ATS
2004 – Tom Brady over Donovan McNabb: Win SU, Loss ATS
2005 – (Ben Roethlisberger in second year and Matt Hasselbeck considered even)
2006 – Peyton Manning over Rex Grossman: Win SU, Win ATS
2007 – Tom Brady over Eli Manning: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2008 – (Ben Roethlisberger and Kurt Warner considered even)
2009 – Peyton Manning over Drew Brees: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2010 – Aaron Rodgers over Ben Roethlisberger: Win SU, Win ATS
2011 – Tom Brady over Eli Manning: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2012 – Colin Kaepernick over Joe Flacco: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2013 – Peyton Manning over Russell Wilson: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2014 – Tom Brady over Russell Wilson: Win SU, Win ATS
2015 – Cam Newton over Peyton Manning: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2016 – (Tom Brady and Matt Ryan considered even)
2017 – Tom Brady over Nick Foles: Loss SU, Loss ATS

2018 – Tom Brady over Jared Goff: Win SU, Win ATS

2019 – Patrick Mahomes over Jimmy Garoppolo: Win SU, Win ATS

2020 – Patrick Mahomes over Tom Brady: ?? SU, ?? ATS

That’s 5-12 against the spread for the superior quarterback. Maybe fading Mahomes isn’t so terrifying.

I’m going to wager eight units on the Buccaneers at +3.5. I’ll lock the pick in as soon as we get confirmation about Schwartz being sidelined.

SUPER BOWL LV PROPS: I’m not a big fan of prop betting, but occasionally I’ll come across a few things I’ll like. For example, I found the best prop of all time 12 years ago:

Will Matt Millen pick the correct team to win Super Bowl XLIII during the Pre-Game Show? Yes -225; No +185.

This was brilliant – if I do say so myself – because if you bet no and he picked the Cardinals, you were basically getting the Steelers moneyline at +185. And if he picked the Steelers, you were essentially getting a solid wager with Arizona moneyline. I ended up making $90 on the prop. There was nothing like capitalizing on Millen’s incompetence.

Hopefully we can find a sure winner again. In the meantime, here are some props I like:

1. Will both teams make a field goal of 33 yards or more in the game – No -111 (Bookmaker): Believe it or not, both participants have made a field goal of 33-plus in only 14 of the 54 Super Bowls.

2. Points Scored in 2nd Half over 1st Half -135 (BetUS): In the previous 34 Super Bowls, the second half is 23-10-1 versus the first half in terms of more points scored. So, in a sense, we’re getting a prop that hits about two out of three times at -130.

3. Will Doja Cat Be On Stage During the Halftime Show – Who Cares -10000 (Bovada): Who the f**k is Doja Cat, and why would anyone care if he/she/it would be on stage?

3. MVPs: Mike Evans – 32:1 (Bookmaker); Chris Godwin – 37:1 (Bookmaker): These are my two favorite MVP values. If the Buccaneers win the Super Bowl, the media might be reluctant to give Brady the MVP award because they don’t like him very much. Either of his primary receivers could be named the most valuable player.

4. Total Quarterback Sacks – Over 3.5 -173 (Bookmaker): Four of the 10 starting offensive linemen are missing in this game. Both defensive lines should control the trenches, so I think we’ll see four-plus sacks in this game.



THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s no huge pro movement yet, but the sharpest books – Pinnacle, CRIS – have the cheapest prices on the Chiefs, which is an indication that they want Buccaneers money. There’s nothing to note in the injury reports thus far, outside of Jason Pierre-Paul missing Wednesday’s practice. There’s no update on Mitchell Schwartz either. On the off chance that he’s cleared, I imagine he’ll be activated on Saturday. I’ll be back on Saturday with another update and perhaps more props!

SATURDAY NOTES: Lots of sharp money has dropped this line to +3 in most books, though +3.5 -120 is still available at BetUS. I imagine the three offensive linemen definitely being out is the greatest factor in this decision-making, but something else that might be considered is the Britt Reid incident. Britt, the son of Andy Reid, is the linebackers coach for the Chiefs. He was involved in a car crash Thursday night, sending two children to the hospital. Britt Reid admitted to having alcohol in his system. This could be a huge distraction for the Chiefs, and Andy Reid in particular.

I have a couple more props:

5. Antonio Brown Receptions – Over 3.5 -138 (Bookmaker): Since his second game with the team, Brown has caught four or more passes in six of the eight full games he has played. He was upgraded to a full practice during the week, so he should catch at least four balls in the Super Bowl.

6. Buccaneers Score in Every Quarter – No -216 (Bookmaker): Brady has played in nine Super Bowls. His team was held scoreless in a quarter in EIGHT of those Super Bowls. Nine obviously is a small sample size, but we’re getting a -216 prop on something that has hit on eight of nine occasions.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Chiefs are starting two backup guards at tackle in this game, and yet they’re favored against a great opponent. Think about that for a second if you plan on wagering on the Chiefs. The Buccaneers are the clear play, especially at +3.5 -115, which is available at BetUS. The sharps are on Tampa as well. Good luck to everyone betting this game!