NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 16, 2021

NFL Picks (Preseason 2021): 6-5 (-$350)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2021): 7-9 (-$1,320)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2021): 7-9 (-$2,340)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2021): 8-8 (-$100)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2021): 12-4 (+$1,400)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2021): 5-10-1 (-$1,770)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2021): 7-7 (+$1,025)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2021): 6-7 (-$455)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2021): 5-10 (-$1,210)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2021): 8-6 (+$660)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2021): 9-5 (+$675)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2021): 7-8 (-$595)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2021): 7-7-1 (-$175)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2021): 7-7 (+$645)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2021): 5-9 (-$1,340)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2021): 10-6 (+$60)

2021 NFL Picks: 116-117-2 (-$5,190)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Dec. 26, 11:35 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 16 NFL Picks – Late Games

San Francisco 49ers (8-6) at Tennessee Titans (9-5)
Line: 49ers by 3.5. Total: 44.5.
Thursday, Dec. 23, 8:20 PM

The Matchup. Edge: None.

Week 15 Analysis: I was not in love with the Week 15 card. I didn’t have a single five-unit selection, and I posted just one four-unit pick. Nevertheless, we’re up nearly three units on the week, so I’ll take it.

I’ll break down all the multi-unit picks once again:

Dolphins, 3 units (loss): We probably would have covered or pushed this game if Tua Tagovailoa didn’t throw that stupid pick-six in the fourth quarter while up 24-17.

Cowboys, 4 units (win): The Cowboys have been a nice money-maker for us the past couple of weeks. That said, the Giants nearly got a back-door touchdown at the end via Jake Fromm.

Jaguars, 3 units (loss): I can’t believe I got duped into betting this stupid Jaguars team as a favorite. Never again.

Packers, 3 units (loss): It looked like the Packers were going to cover when they went up 31-17 in the fourth quarter, but Tyler Huntley went nuts on the final two drives and nearly won outright. It figures the Packers wouldn’t cover the one time I bet on them.

Vikings, 3 units (win): Wow, we got lucky with this one! The Bears were clearly the right side even though they were missing seven defensive backs. The Bears outgained the Vikings, 370-193!

We continued to have bad luck with the Dolphins and Packers, as both could have easily covered this past week, but we finally got the good end of the variance stick with our wrong side, right result on Minnesota.

A couple of things: First, I’m going to remind you every week that my wife is due around Christmas, so there will be a week in December when my picks and/or recaps could be released late. Second, I just published a book called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:

This book is not completely about football; it’s more political than anything, so some of you will hate it. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me if Amazon bans it at some point, so get it while you can. Nevertheless, if you want to support the site, please consider ordering a copy!

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: When discussing the 49ers’ offense and any matchup associated with it, one must delve into how the opponent defends the middle of the field because San Francisco attacks it so much with George Kittle and Deebo Samuel. The 49ers had a very easy matchup last week versus the Falcons, who are woeful when defending the middle of the field.

The Titans are 11th in middle-of-the-field defense DVOA, so they won’t get completely dissected by Jimmy Garoppolo. They have some issues in their secondary, but their talented pass rush will rattle Garoppolo a bit.

Tennessee will also be able to clamp down on Elijah Mitchell, as they’re solid when it comes to stopping the run. Mitchell may return this week, as he has finally been cleared.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: The Titans will also struggle to move the chains on the ground. The 49ers have one of the top run defenses in the NFL, so D’Onta Foreman won’t match his 100-yard total from last week.

This would normally be a crushing blow to the Titans’ chances of scoring, but this week is different. That’s because A.J. Brown is returning from injury. The Titans have struggled mightily without Brown, even when Julio Jones was available. Brown, unlike the current version of Jones, is a huge difference-maker. He’ll provide a big boost to the Titans’ offense.

RECAP: The advance spread on this game was pick’ em. Now, it’s -3.5! Not only did it jump to a key number, it moved past it! Now, I realize that the sharps have been betting the 49ers, but this line movement doesn’t seem justified when considering Brown’s return to action, as well as the Titans’ ability to defend the middle of the field.

This line is simply too high. I personally made it San Francisco -2.5. The computer model projects it to be San Francisco -1. Getting the +3 is huge.

I’m going to have a medium-sized selection on Tennessee, especially if this line keeps rising. There’s a lot of FOMO betting occurring with the 49ers right now, and that’s something I like to fade.

Our Week 16 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I like this game less because Taylor Lewan, Rodger Saffold and the backup swing tackle will be sidelined. Still, I like the Titans, as their talented receivers will be able to attack the 49ers’ weak cornerbacks. The sharps have brought this down to +3 in most sportsbooks, but the latest offensive line injury has brought the spread back up to +3.5.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As indicated earlier, the sharp money was on the Titans before Tennessee’s third offensive lineman was ruled out. I still like the Titans though. Their defense is built to take away the strengths of the 49ers’ offense, while their receivers will dominate San Francisco’s decimated cornerback group. The best line is +3.5 -110 at BetUS.

The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Titans.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -2.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Pick.
Computer Model: 49ers -1.
DVOA Spread: 49ers -4.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.

The public and sharps are on the 49ers.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 65% (51,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Titans.

49ers are 39-27 ATS as favorites in night games since 1989.

Titans are 27-18 ATS in non-conference home games.

Mike Vrabel is 17-6 ATS as an underdog of 3+ points.

Opening Line: 49ers -3.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: .

Week 16 NFL Pick: 49ers 26, Titans 24
Titans +3.5 (2 Units) – BetUS — Correct; +$200
Over 44.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Titans 20, 49ers 17

Cleveland Browns (7-7) at Green Bay Packers (11-3)
Line: Packers by 7.5. Total: 46.5.
Saturday, Dec. 25, 4:30 PM

The Matchup. Edge: None.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: It’s amazes me that Aaron Rodgers is getting no MVP talk right now. He’s the quarterback of the team with the best record in the NFL, and his team lost the one game in which he didn’t play. He has enjoyed a tremendous year despite dealing with a receiving corps his front office refuses to upgrade and missing numerous offensive linemen at most times. He was down three blockers last week, and yet he still managed to prevail. If he didn’t lie and hurt the media’s precious feelings, everyone would be nominating him as MVP. The media sucks.

We’ll have to see if Rodgers will continue to miss three blockers. David Bakhtiari is due back any week now, and he’ll be needed against a Cleveland pass rush that includes Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney. The Browns, provided they get back everyone from the virus list, have the personnel to pressure Rodgers and slow down his receiving corps.

The Browns are decent at stopping the run as well, so I wouldn’t expect much from Aaron Jones or A.J. Dillon either. It’ll be up to Rodgers, who will certainly put together numerous scoring drives, but may not do so enough to cover this large spread if Bakhtiari isn’t present.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: The Browns will have plenty of reinforcements back this week, as Baker Mayfield, Kareem Hunt, Jarvis Landry, Austin Hooper and two offensive tackles are set to come back from the virus list. They’ll be needed against the Packers.

With everyone back in action, it shouldn’t be difficult for the Browns to move the chains. The Packers have a bottom-10 run defense, so Cleveland will be able to establish Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Chubb even had success versus the Raiders’ 13th-ranked rush defense DVOA despite missing Jedrick Wills and James Hudson in front of him.

Mayfield, meanwhile, will have success attacking the middle of the field. The Packers are 23rd at defending that area; we just saw what Mark Andrews did to them. Green Bay also has trouble against slot receivers, so Hooper and Landry figure to thrive.

RECAP: Assuming all the Browns on the virus list are able to return, this spread is a bit too high. I made this line -7, which is what the advance spread was before it presumably moved because Cleveland would have two fewer days of rest than Green Bay rather than one more. The DVOA line is Green Bay -4.5. It’s not a surprise to see this because the Packers have gotten very lucky in their covers over the year. They’re not as good as their record says they are at the moment, though they will be once Bakhtiari and Jaire Alexander are available to play.

Assuming Bakhtiari doesn’t make it back for this game, the Packers will be down three offensive linemen, which will make them prone to the back-door cover. The Browns will be able to pressure Rodgers enough to allow them to cover this high line.

There’s a good chance I end up betting several units on this game, but I’d like to see who will be available for the Browns, given their predicament. Bakhtiari’s potential availability will also be important.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: David Bakhtairi hasn’t practiced yet, so the Browns would look better – except Myles Garrett hasn’t practiced yet because of a groin injury. I’ll be shocked if he doesn’t play with the playoffs on the line, but he may not be 100 percent. Also, I’m making this one leg of a teaser with Bills +8.5.

SATURDAY NOTES: I really wanted to bet on the Browns, but they’re going to be missing three offensive linemen (Jedrick Wills, Jack Conklin, JC Tretter), two safeties, two cornerbacks and perhaps Myles Garrett, though it sounds like Garrett will play. I’m not betting this game outside of the teaser.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Myles Garrett will play, which will give the Browns a decent chance at covering. I really wanted to bet the Browns, but they have too many injuries. Still, they’re the side because the Packers are overpriced. If you want to bet them, Bookmaker has the best line at +7.5 -109. The sharps haven’t touched this game.

The Motivation. Edge: Browns.

There’s a slight chance the Packers might look ahead to the Vikings.

The Spread. Edge: Browns.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -7.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Packers -7.
Computer Model: Packers -9.
DVOA Spread: Packers -4.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 77% (82,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

Aaron Rodgers is 119-77 ATS since 2009.

Packers are 37-21 ATS in December home games since 2000.

Opening Line: Packers -7.5.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: Possible light rain, 34 degrees. Light wind.

Week 16 NFL Pick: Packers 30, Browns 23
Browns +7.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Teaser: Packers -1.5, Bills +8.5 (2 Units) — So far, so good…
Over 46.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Packers 24, Browns 22

Indianapolis Colts (8-6) at Arizona Cardinals (10-4)
Line: Cardinals by 2.5. Total: 48.5.
Saturday, Dec. 25, 8:15 PM

The Matchup. Edge: Cardinals.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 42-32 so far this year. As you can tell, the sportsbooks have taken a beating.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Chiefs -3.5

Packers -6.5

Bengals +3

Bills -14

Eagles -6.5

Rams -7

The highest-bet teams were 3-1 so far this past week, so the sportsbooks lost money once again.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Packers -8

Jets -2.5

49ers -3.5

Colts +1.5

Buccaneers -11.5

Chargers -9

Lions +4

Some surprises here. I know the Jets are playing the Jaguars, but people sure have a lot of faith in them as favorites.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Kyler Murray looked incredibly frustrated against the Lions. Nothing seemed to go right for him and his team, as Arizona put forth a very low-effort performance in Detroit. Of course, it didn’t help that the Cardinals were missing both DeAndre Hopkins and Rodney Hudson. Their absences were significant when A.J. Green didn’t come back to the ball on Murray’s interception, or when Arizona’s backup center botched some snaps.

Hopkins won’t return until the playoffs, but Hudson figures to play if he can make it off the dreaded virus list. His presence will allow Murray to have ample time in the pocket. No team generates less pressure than the Colts, so Murray will be well protected as he attempts to locate his receivers against a secondary that is rather mediocre.

The Colts are at their best when defending the run, but they’re not very good at defending the middle of the field. We just saw Hunter Henry have a good game, as Indianapolis had issues stopping Mac Jones, save for the two picks that sandwiched halftime. Murray will obviously have more success attacking the Colts’ defense with Zach Ertz.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: One other key player the Cardinals are missing is J.J. Watt. Arizona is 7-0 with Watt this year, but just 3-4 without him. Watt’s absence has made the Cardinals way worse against the run.

That obviously does not bode well for this matchup. Arizona will be tasked with tackling Jonathan Taylor, who has been a freight train this year. Taylor figures to have a huge performance once again on a Saturday night.

That said, the Cardinals will have a chance at containing the Colts’ offense because Carson Wentz is really struggling right now. Wentz completed just five passes against New England, and he has a penchant of throwing games away with careless decision-making. If this game is close in the fourth quarter, it’s reasonable to expect Wentz to make a crucial mistake.

RECAP: There is an insane line overreaction to this game. The advance spread was Arizona -5. The line has since fallen 3.5 points, plummeting through the primary key number of three.

I guess that’s what happens when a team is blown out by the Lions. I understand that the loss should warrant a downgrade of sorts on Arizona, but the team didn’t put forth full effort into that contest. Also, the Lions have mostly played close games since coming off their bye. No one has paid attention to them, but it’s true. Their victory over Minnesota and near-win against the Browns weren’t flukes.

The Cardinals can definitely win this game because Indianapolis is a team that often beats itself. It didn’t do that last Saturday because the Patriots repeatedly shot themselves in the foot, but after being humiliated, the Cardinals will be trying their hardest. I love betting good teams coming off embarrassing defeats, and this certainly qualifies.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps brought this spread down to pick ’em, but other pro money came in on Arizona to bring the line back to -1. The latter move is likely because the Colts will be down multiple offensive linemen.

SATURDAY NOTES: The sharps have continued to bet the Cardinals, perhaps because of the Colts’ offensive line woes. Indianapolis will be missing every single starter in the interior. I already liked the Cardinals a lot because they’re a good team coming off an embarrassing loss, so I’m going to increase my unit count.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Though Darius Leonard and Khari Willis were declared out, I’m not happy about the line moving up to -3. I want to pay for the -2.5 (-123 at Bookmaker), so I’m going to drop this to three units. The sharps are on Arizona.

The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Cardinals.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cardinals -1.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Cardinals -5.
Computer Model: Cardinals -1.
DVOA Spread: Pick.

The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.

Decent action on the Colts.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 65% (67,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

Cardinals are 31-23 ATS in December home games since 2000.

Cardinals are 38-27 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 since 2007.

Opening Line: Cardinals -1.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 16 NFL Pick: Cardinals 27, Colts 21
Cardinals -2.5 -123 (3 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$370
Over 49 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Colts 22, Cardinals 16

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-4) at Carolina Panthers (5-10)
Line: Buccaneers by 11. Total: 44.
Sunday, Dec. 26, 1:00 PM

The Matchup. Edge: Buccaneers.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. We got just a bit this week:

This is from someone who has so much sand in his vag that he doesn’t appreciate a good troll.

I couldn’t imagine living such a horrible existence in which I couldn’t enjoy trolling. If I couldn’t enjoy trolling, I may have jumped off a building by now. I don’t know how this Thrillhouse person keeps it all together, honestly. You need some fun in life!

Here’s someone who replied to Thrillhouse about me:

I don’t know how Puddles comes back from that, honestly. His unborn grandkids will feel that burn.

I just discovered that at least one person doesn’t like me on Twitter:

Wow, this guy cares so much more about my one-unit pick than I do. He even posted a picture of himself taking the trash out for some reason. Kinda weird, but OK.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Sunday night’s loss to the Saints was devastating. Not only did the Buccaneers lose control of the No. 1 seed; they also saw Chris Godwin, Mike Evans and Leonard Fournette suffer injuries. Evans is fine, while Fournette will miss a game or two. Unfortunately, Godwin tore his ACL and will be out for the year.

Luckily for the Buccaneers, they’ll get Antonio Brown back from his unjust suspension this week. It’s not clear why Brown was forced to miss three games, but his presence will be a huge boon for Brady. Brown being available will be key in this game, as the Panthers have Stephon Gilmore to erase one of Brady’s receivers, presumably Evans. Carolina is also terrific at limiting tight ends. Thus, Brown will be Brady’s go-to threat in this contest.

The Panthers are at their weakest trying to defend the run. They just allowed Devin Singletary to have a positive performance, so the Buccaneers will have success moving the chains on the ground even though Fournette won’t be available. Ronald Jones figures to take advantage of this great matchup.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: It’s not yet clear who will start at quarterback for the Panthers. Cam Newton has been atrocious despite declaring “I’m back!” when he scored a touchdown on a gadget play versus the Cardinals. Newton is 0-4 straight up and against the spread as a starter, losing to three teams with sub-.500 records. Meanwhile, Sam Darnold’s availability is currently unknown, as the Panthers still need to evaluate his shoulder.

Regardless of which quarterback starts, either one will be tasked with moving the chains on their own because the Carolina running game won’t work. The Buccaneers are stout versus the rush – they just limited Alvin Kamara to 18 rushing yards on 11 carries – so neither Panther back will find any running room.

This obviously makes things problematic for the Panthers because neither of their quarterbacks is very good. Darnold is better than Newton right now, but if Darnold plays, he’ll have to deal with Tampa’s relentless pressure. The Buccaneers have the No. 8 pressure rate in the NFL, which doesn’t bode well for Darnold; he has one touchdown and six interceptions this year when under pressure.

RECAP: I love betting Brady off a loss when he’s not favored by tons of points. This is a large spread, but I still like the Buccaneers to cover. They should be able to dominate on the defensive side of the ball versus a Carolina offense that is a complete disaster. The Buccaneers just limited the Saints’ similar offense to nine points, so if the Buccaneers duplicate this feat, all Brady will need is 21 points to cover, which should be very feasible.

This spread is a bit too high for my liking when considering the Buccaneers’ injuries. However, I’m still going to be on Tampa. Every team that has battled the Panthers lately has blown them out, so I don’t see why this would be any different.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Lavonte David may not play in this game, but that wouldn’t take me off the Buccaneers. That said, I don’t really have any interest in betting Tampa.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Buccaneers will be missing a bunch of players, including Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Leonard Fournette, Lavonte David and Jason Pierre-Paul. This made me lean toward the Panthers a bit until I recalled that the Buccaneers still have their terrific offensive line, while the Panthers, who blitz frequently, will get torched by Tom Brady, who excels versus the blitz.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Sharp money has come in on the Buccaneers, believe it or not. The Panthers won’t have their left tackle, meaning they’re missing multiple offensive linemen. The best line is -11 -104 at Bookmaker.

The Motivation. Edge: Buccaneers.

Tom Brady is coming off his third-ever shutout loss.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Buccaneers -10.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Buccaneers -11.
Computer Model: Buccaneers -9.
DVOA Spread: Buccaneers -10.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.

Tons of money on the Buccaneers despite the injuries.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 65% (62,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.

History: Buccaneers have won 4 the last 5 meetings.

Road Team is 110-79 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Tom Brady is 271-86 as a starter (202-140 ATS).

Tom Brady is 187-126 against the spread since 2003.

Tom Brady is 48-23 ATS off a loss (10-13 ATS as -7 or more; 16-1 ATS as an underdog).

Opening Line: Buccaneers -14.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Cloudy, 58 degrees. Light wind.

Week 16 NFL Pick: Buccaneers 27, Panthers 10
Buccaneers -11 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 44 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Buccaneers 32, Panthers 6

New York Giants (4-10) at Philadelphia Eagles (7-7)
Line: Eagles by 11. Total: 41.
Sunday, Dec. 26, 1:00 PM

The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

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PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Eagles accumulated 517 rushing yards Tuesday night, as they did most of their damage on the ground with Miles Sanders, Jordan Howard and Jalen Hurts. The Redskins were depleted defensively, but the Giants won’t be much better versus the rush, given that they’re 28th in run defense DVOA.

Hurts was excellent as a passer as well, torching a Washington secondary that hasn’t been able to defend the middle of the field or deep passes even before losing William Jackson to injury Tuesday night. Hurts’ deep throwing won’t be as effective in this contest because the Giants have a strong defensive backfield, but they can’t defend the middle of the field well either. They also don’t pressure the quarterback frequently, so Hurts will have all day to locate his targets. Dallas Goedert figures to have a big game.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Giants have announced that they’ve shut down Daniel Jones for the rest of the season. Thus, it’ll be either Mike Glennon or Jake Fromm getting the nod. Glennon was atrocious against the Cowboys last week, getting pulled before the final drive. On that last possession, Fromm nearly accumulated the same number of passing yards that Glennon had for the rest of the game.

Fromm has no arm strength, but he’s accurate and will be able to move the chains occasionally. It’ll help if he has Kadarius Toney back from injury, given that Sterling Shepard was just lost for the season. Saquon Barkley and Evan Engram will be primary threats because the Eagles can’t defend the middle of the field.

That said, it’s difficult to envision Fromm having too much success, given that the Eagles have a top-12 pressure rate defense. Young quarterbacks fare far worse when seeing pressure, and this will likely be Fromm’s first start.

RECAP: The last time these teams met, the Giants prevailed 13-7. However, the Eagles outgained them, 332-264, and averaged 0.5 more yards per play. Philadelphia simply made too many mistakes, with Jalen Hurts throwing three interceptions (two in the red zone), Boston Scott fumbling, and Jalen Reagor and Greg Ward dropping touchdowns.

The Eagles will play a cleaner game this time by default, but I won’t be picking them because this spread is too high. Think about it this way: The Cowboys closed -11 at the Giants last week. If you move that line two points to account for home-field advantage, you’d get that Dallas would be -13 against the Giants at home. There’s no rational world in which Dallas is only three points better than Philadelphia. The Eagles were 15 or so yards away from not even covering the -10 versus the skeleton-crew Redskins!

My personal spread for this game is Philadelphia -5. Last week’s DVOA numbers have it at Philadelphia -6. There’s great value with the Giants. Unfortunately, there’s some quit factor in them as well, as they may not play hard for a lame-duck coach or a scrub quarterback. As a result, I’m going to limit this wager to a couple of units at the maximum.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Nick Sirianni tested positive for the cold, so he may not coach this game. That won’t affect my unit count at all unless other coaches are out as well.

SATURDAY NOTES: Jake Fromm will start this game, which is the preferred option over Mike Glennon. The Giants should be able to keep this contest close, especially if Kadarius Toney returns from injury. This is the Giants’ Super Bowl, while the Eagles are coming off two fewer days of rest. I still like the Giants a bit.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Toney is back, yet some sharp money has come in on the Eagles on Sunday morning. I still like the Giants for a couple of units. The best line is +11 -104 at Bookmaker.

The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Giants.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Eagles -9.
Computer Model: Eagles -9.
DVOA Spread: Eagles -6.

The Vegas. Edge: Giants.
Slight lean on the Eagles.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 63% (53,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

History: Eagles have won 22 the last 27 meetings.

Opening Line: Eagles -10.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Possible light rain, 36 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.

Week 16 NFL Pick: Eagles 20, Giants 13
Giants +11 -104 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$210
Under 41 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Eagles 34, Giants 10

Los Angeles Chargers (8-6) at Houston Texans (3-11)
Line: Chargers by 13. Total: 45.5.
Sunday, Dec. 26, 1:00 PM

The Matchup. Edge: Chargers.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Props page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: Despite battling an improved Chiefs defense last week, the Chargers posted 28 points and probably would have prevailed had they won the coin flip in overtime. Justin Herbert was terrific, showing an improved ability against the blitz, which was an issue for him earlier in the year.

Herbert has a much easier matchup this week. The Texans have a dreadful defense that can’t generate pressure on the quarterback (22nd in pressure rate) and happens to be short some starters in the secondary. With Herbert having plenty of time in the pocket, he’ll be able to locate Keenan Allen and Mike Williams.

Austin Ekeler is the Charger who has the best matchup in this contest. The Texans are even worse against the run than they are versus aerial attacks. There’s some question with Ekeler being on the virus list, but it sounds like he’ll be able to play.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: I wrote about this ahead of the Texans-Seahawks game a couple of weeks ago, but Davis Mills was unfairly judged by how he performed earlier in the year. Here are the defenses he battled in his early starts, as well as their respective pass defense DVOAs: Panthers (5th), Bills (1st), Patriots (2nd), Colts (15th), Cardinals (3rd), Rams (11th).

It’s no surprise that Mills’ play has improved exponentially lately. His previous two opponents, the Seahawks and Jaguars, are 29th and 31st in pass defense DVOA, respectively. Mills, however, will be back in a difficult matchup this week, with the Chargers being 13th in that category.

That said, there’s an outside chance that Mills will perform above expectations. That’s because Joey Bosa will be sidelined due to the ultra-deadly scourge that has taken the lives of so many NFL players. The Texans have a horrendous offensive line that normally wouldn’t be able to block the Chargers’ pass rush, but San Angeles’ ability to generate pressure on the quarterback will be diminished without Bosa.

RECAP: I was upset to see several Chargers land on the virus list this week because I wanted to bet them against the Texans. Houston is coming off a win, but there’s a huge step up between the Jaguars and Chargers, especially when considering the strength of their pass defenses.

However, it’s currently unclear whom the Chargers won’t have available beyond Bosa. I still think they could cover this spread just without Bosa, but if they’re beginning to miss numerous players, especially at specific positions, I may end up switching to Houston.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Austin Ekeler may miss this game as well because he just went on the virus list. I’m still no units on the Chargers, but if their virus list continues to expand, I may switch sides.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Chargers will be down Austin Ekeler and two starting offensive linemen, but that’s nothing compared to what Houston is enduring. Take a look at their depth chart, provided by Ourlads.com:

That’s insane. They’re also missing some key backups. This is Chargers or nothing for me. I hate backing huge favorites missing multiple players at a single position, but I don’t know how Houston will be competitive at all. I’m going to bet a couple of units on the Chargers.

SATURDAY NOTES II: We already knew Austin Ekeler would be sidelined. Mike Williams won’t play either. That’ll take me off betting the Chargers.

FINAL THOUGHTS: A ton of public and sharp money came in on the Chargers on Sunday morning, sending this spread soaring to nearly two touchdowns. The best line is -13 +100 at Bookmaker. If the Chargers had fewer injuries, I would be betting them.

The Motivation. Edge: Texans.

The Chargers battle the Broncos and Raiders after this game.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chargers -9.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chargers -10.5.
Computer Model: Chargers -6.
DVOA Spread: Chargers -7.

The Vegas. Edge: Texans.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on San Angeles: 70% (55,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Texans.

Justin Herbert is 4-7 ATS as a favorite of -3 or more.

Opening Line: Chargers -10.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 16 NFL Pick: Chargers 27, Texans 13
Chargers -13 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 45.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Texans 41, Chargers 29

Detroit Lions (2-11-1) at Atlanta Falcons (6-8)
Line: Falcons by 7.5. Total: 43.
Sunday, Dec. 26, 1:00 PM

The Matchup. Edge: Falcons.

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DETROIT OFFENSE: The sharps were betting the Lions down from +4.5 to +4 before this spread was taken off the board. The reason for this was Jared Goff landing on the virus list. I was hoping the NFL would stop testing by now, but Goff could miss this game. If so, it’ll be Tim Boyle once again.

It’s a shame for Goff that he may miss this matchup because it was a great one for him. The Falcons have the second-worst pressure rate in the NFL, and they can’t defend the middle of the field whatsoever. Goff loves attacking the middle of the field with his running backs, tight ends and Amon-Ra St. Brown. T.J. Hockenson won’t be available, but there’s a good chance Jamaal Williams will be around to join Craig Reynolds, who has impressed the past two weeks. D’Andre Swift may return to action as well, but that’s less likely.

Boyle’s presence will obviously limit the Lions’ offense. He won’t be completely inept because this is such an easy matchup, but Detroit’s scoring unit would definitely take a major hit.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: The Lions were able to harass Kyler Murray very effectively last week. Many were surprised, but perhaps we should have seen it coming. The Lions are 10th in pressure rate this season, which is very surprising, considering that Trey Flowers has played in just half the games this year.

Matt Ryan is not protected well, so the Lions will be able to rattle him and perhaps force some turnovers. Ryan, however, should be able to take advantage of some matchups when he has time in the pocket. Detroit struggles to defend the middle of the field, so that bodes well for Kyle Pitts and Russell Gage.

RECAP: No one has really noticed that the Lions have been playing much better since the bye. They nearly defeated the Steelers and Browns with Boyle playing quarterback. They defeated the Vikings and Cardinals. They were blown out once, losing 38-10 at Denver, but they nearly outgained the Broncos in that game, ultimately losing because of bad red zone play.

With that in mind, I really wanted to bet the Lions above a field goal against the Falcons, who don’t blow out anyone. Their wins this year have been by 3, 7, 2, 2, 7 and 8, and all of those victories were against bad teams. The Lions, despite their recent success, are still a bad team, but they haven’t been the worst team in the NFL since the bye.

Unfortunately, Goff landed on the virus list, so his status is unknown. I have no desire to bet on Boyle unless I’m getting a crap ton of points, so I’ll stay away from this game for now.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: With Goff landing on the virus list, this spread closed at +4 and reopened at +5.5 (+6 at Bovada). I had interest betting the Lions with Goff at +4, but not with Tim Boyle at +6. I’m not going to switch to the Falcons, however, because they don’t blow anyone out.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Lions will be missing Amani Oruwaryie, their top healthy cornerback, which makes me believe I would take Atlanta if this spread were still -5.5. However, the line has ballooned to -7. Remember, the Falcons haven’t won by more than eight this year, and they’ve battled some horrid teams.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Falcons earlier in the week when the quarterback switch was announced. This spread has been stuck at +7, but you can get +7.5 -120 at BetUS, which is worth it, given that Atlanta plays within 1-7 points. D’Andre Swift is out, but the Lions have other solid running backs.

The Motivation. Edge: Lions.

The Falcons have to battle the Bills next week.

The Spread. Edge: Lions.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Falcons -2.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Falcons -6.5.
Computer Model: Falcons -6.
DVOA Spread: Falcons -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 52% (53,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Falcons.

Falcons are 34-21 ATS following a loss of 6+ in the previous 54 instances.

Opening Line: Falcons -4.5.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Dome.

Week 16 NFL Pick: Falcons 23, Lions 17
Lions +7.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 43 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Falcons 20, Lions 16

Baltimore Ravens (8-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (8-6)
Line: Bengals by 3. Total: 43.
Sunday, Dec. 26, 1:00 PM

The Matchup. Edge: Bengals.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The Bengals scored 41 points against the Ravens when these teams met in Week 7. In that game, Joe Burrow threw all over Baltimore’s defense, connecting on numerous deep throws to Ja’Marr Chase and C.J. Uzomah.

The Ravens were missing only one defensive back in that game. Now, they’re without their top two cornerbacks and one of their safeties. They’ve been torched by everyone they’ve battled recently. Burrow and his weapons figure to be even better in the rematch.

The matchup for Baltimore versus Burrow is especially bad because the Ravens blitz so much. Burrow happens to be excellent versus the blitz, which is another reason why he was so lethal in the 41-17 victory.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Ravens have issues on this side of the ball as well. Their offensive line is in bad shape, thanks to numerous injuries. The blocking was an issue in the Week 7 blowout loss, and it’ll once again prove to be a huge liability against a Cincinnati defense that generates considerable pressure on opposing quarterbacks.

Even if Lamar Jackson returns, the Ravens will struggle to move the chains on a consistent basis. That will especially be true if Jackson is hindered by his ankle injury. Jackson may have to be a pocket passer this week, which is bad news considering that Jackson completed just 15-of-31 passes in the prior matchup.

It’s not all bleak for the Ravens, as Mark Andrews figures to have a strong performance against a Cincinnati defense that is vulnerable in the middle of the field. Andrews was a monster last week, and he figures to dominate once again.

RECAP: As discussed earlier, the Bengals’ demolition of the Ravens earlier in the season was no fluke. Cincinnati already matched up very well against Baltimore, and yet the Ravens’ roster is so much more decimated by injuries than it was back when these teams first met in late October.

I personally think this spread is way off the mark. I made this line Cincinnati -4, so we’re on the wrong side of three. If you don’t agree, think about it this way: The Ravens were +3 at Cleveland two weeks ago, and yet they’re only +2.5 now. How does that make sense, especially when factoring in that the Browns were destroying the Ravens before they completely took their foot off the gas in the second half?

The Bengals match up so much better against the Ravens than the Browns do, so I like them quite a bit in this contest. This will be one of my higher-end bets this week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No Lamar Jackson in practice yet. I’m locking in this pick because Jackson probably won’t play, plus the Baltimore virus list keeps expanding. This line is likely headed for -3.5 soon with the juice rising to -3 -115 in all sportsbooks. Bookmaker has -3 -113 available.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m glad we locked in this pick at -3 -113 because this line has risen to -4 or -4.5 in the wake of the news that Tyler Huntley will probably start. It would take a +6 to make me consider Baltimore with Huntley; the move to -4 is not nearly enough of an adjustment.

SATURDAY NOTES: Tyler Huntley has been ruled out, so Josh Johnson will start. I would not bet the Bengals at -7 because of a potential back-door cover, but it’s not like I would recommend Baltimore either.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m so glad I locked this in at -3. If you’re considering a middle, the +7.5 -119 at Bookmaker is interesting. You might be able to get a better line during the game. At any rate, the sharps were on the Bengals earlier in the week, but not at -7.

The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Bengals.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bengals -4.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bengals -2.5.
Computer Model: Bengals -3.
DVOA Spread: Bengals -2.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.

Public and sharps on the Bengals.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 73% (63,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Ravens.

History: Ravens have won 5 of the last 6 meetings.

Opening Line: Bengals -2.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 49 degrees. Light wind.

Week 16 NFL Pick: Bengals 34, Ravens 17
Bengals -3 -113 (5 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$500
Over 43 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Bengals 41, Ravens 21

Los Angeles Rams (10-4) at Minnesota Vikings (7-7)
Line: Rams by 3.5. Total: 48.5.
Sunday, Dec. 26, 1:00 PM

The Matchup. Edge: None.

I’ll post the Rams-Vikings pick on Wednesday afternoon because the Rams play Tuesday night. Video of the Week: Weeks ago, I showed you a Steamed Hams video. It’s time for another Steamed Hams clip! What would happen if the second half of each sentence in Steamed Hams were reversed? You can find out here:

Sea Mommies!!!

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: Many people didn’t see it because the NFL put the two Tuesday games on at the same time for some reason, but the Rams’ offense struggled against the Seahawks. They made some mistakes in field goal range, including a miscommunication on an interception and a bad sack to move out of kicking range. They were much sharper in the second half, but more was expected from them against a Seattle defense ranked 26th in defensive DVOA that happened to be missing its top two cornerbacks.

The Vikings’ defensive rankings are in the middle of the pack, but I expect the Rams to have more offensive success in this game. The Vikings’ primary defensive strength is applying pressure on the quarterback, but Matthew Stafford is protected well. He’s not like Justin Fields, who made mistakes when he had pressure in his face.

The Rams will be able to attack two areas of Minnesota’s defense. First, the Vikings’ cornerback situation is a mess, especially the slot cornerback. That’s where Cooper Kupp plays, so that’s an automatic advantage for the Rams. Second, Minnesota is weak to the run. Sony Michel was excellent as the new starting running back, so he’ll continue to play well.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The Vikings’ game plan against the Bears was asinine. Chicago was missing seven defensive backs, yet all the Bears tried to do was establish the run. It’s as if the coaching staff didn’t even look at the injury report.

Establishing Dalvin Cook won’t work very well in this matchup. The Rams have a top-five ground defense, so Kirk Cousins will have to throw in order to beat the Rams. The problem with that is that Justin Jefferson will see plenty of Jalen Ramsey’s coverage, so if Adam Thielen isn’t healthy yet, Cousins’ options will be rather limited.

However, if Thielen plays, the Vikings will suddenly look more appealing. This is because the Rams blitz often (9th), and Cousins is excellent against the blitz. He torched the healthy Ravens in a similar spot earlier in the year, and I suspect that he’ll have one of his better games this week, especially after the horrible dud in Chicago.

RECAP: The Rams are clearly the better team. Yet, they’re only -3 in Minnesota, and there is sharp action coming in on the Vikings. What gives?

The potential issue here for the Rams is that they’re coming off two big divisional wins, and following this contest, they’ll battle the Ravens. It’s possible that they could be in a flat spot.

Couple the motivational angle with Cousins’ ability against the blitz, and the Vikings look appealing to me. I’ll have some sort of wager on them, depending on the injuries.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps seemed to be on the Vikings until Dalvin Cook was declared out with a cold. There’s some speculation that Kirk Cousins was a close contact, which is why the spread has risen to -3.5.

SATURDAY NOTES: It’s unbelievable to me that this line would move up from +3 to +3.5 just because of Dalvin Cook. Alexander Mattison is one of the top backup running backs in the NFL, so there shouldn’t be any sort of line movement for Cook’s injury. I love this improved line value, especially with Andrew Whitworth sidelined.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m going to bet two units on the Vikings, who should be able to play yet another close game versus superior cometition. The best line is +3.5 -115 at Bovada. The sharps bet the Vikings at +3.5, but not at +3.

The Motivation. Edge: Vikings.

The Rams are coming off two divisional games, and they battle the Ravens next week.

The Spread. Edge: .

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Rams -5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Rams -3.5.
Computer Model: Rams -2.
DVOA Spread: Rams -3.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 52% (55,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Vikings.

Matthew Stafford is 21-26 ATS in December and January.

Mike Zimmer is 74-52 ATS as head coach of the Vikings.

Vikings are 36-24 ATS at home since 2014.

Mike Zimmer is 19-10 ATS as an underdog of 3.5+. ???

Opening Line: Rams -2.5.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 16 NFL Pick: Rams 28, Vikings 27
Vikings +3.5 -115 (2 Units) – Bovada — Incorrect; -$230
Over 48.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Rams 30, Vikings 23

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-12) at New York Jets (3-11)
Line: Jets by 2.5. Total: 42.5.
Sunday, Dec. 26, 1:00 PM

The Matchup. Edge: Jaguars.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are complete. They may return in the future, but I had to stop them for now.

By the way, my other book is still available as well:

In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: It was surprising to see the Jets score 10 points right away against the Dolphins last week. Zach Wilson struggles mightily against the blitz, and the Dolphins blitz more than any other team in the NFL not named the Buccaneers. Wilson drove down the field on his opening possession, leading his team into the end zone.

Wilson, however, scored just seven more points following the early 10-point outburst. He regressed to the mean in the second half, and I anticipate that he’ll have similiar struggles against the Jaguars. Jacksonville is known as having a bad defense, but the team is ninth in pressure rate and blitzes frequently. This does not bode well for Wilson.

The Jaguars are also fairly decent at stopping the run, so I wouldn’t expect much from Michael Carter once again. Jacksonville struggles the most in coverage, but it really won’t have anyone to cover with the Jets missing their top two receivers. Wilson will have some success connecting with his tight ends on occasion, but that’s about it.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Though the Jaguars lost to the Texans last week, they still performed better than they would have under Urban Meyer because they actually fed the ball to James Robinson. They didn’t have much of a choice with Carlos Hyde sidelined, but if Meyer had been in that position, he would have signed Tim Tebow to handle the workload, then kicked Robinson in the hamstring for underperforming, and then blamed everyone but himself for the team’s poor execution.

Robinson will continue to get the majority of the touches, which will allow Jacksonville to have plenty of offensive success. The Jets just allowed Duke Johnson to look like the second coming of Jim Brown, so Robinson could put together his best performance of the season.

Robinson’s strong running will take some pressure off Trevor Lawrence. The No. 1 overall pick has endured a rough rookie season, but this is a tremendous matchup for him. The Jets routinely leave players wide open, so Lawrence could also have his best game of the year.

RECAP: I know I wrote “never again” in regard to betting the Jaguars way earlier on the page, but I was referring to doing so when they’re big favorites. I have no problem backing them as underdogs against a dreadful opponent.

As miserable as the Jaguars have been, the Jets have been even worse. Wilson struggles against the blitz, which will give him big problems in this game. The Jets’ top two receivers being absent will continue to be a huge deal. Meanwhile, Robinson will run over New York’s pathetic defense.

Though I like the Jaguars, I’m still going to limit this wager to just a couple of units. It’s just too difficult to trust them, even against the hapless Jets.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps are betting the Jaguars. If you think about it, this line makes no sense. Jacksonville was considered 4.5 points better than Houston last week, yet now they’re even with the Jets?

SATURDAY NOTES: Sharp money was on the Jaguars earlier in the week, but some pro money has come in on the Jets because Jacksonville won’t have Josh Allen and several offensive linemen. This latest development is a bummer because the Jaguars looked appealing. I don’t want to bet either side now.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have taken both sides in this game, which isn’t a surprise. I have no interest in betting this game.

The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Jets -1.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Jets -1.5.
Computer Model: Jets -3.
DVOA Spread: Jets -2.

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.
Slight lean on the host.

Percentage of money on New York: 63% (35,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jets.

Jaguars are 49-92 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Opening Line: Jets -2.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Possible light rain, 35 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.

Week 16 NFL Pick: Jaguars 23, Jets 16
Jaguars +2.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 42.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Jets 26, Jaguars 21

Buffalo Bills (8-6) at New England Patriots (9-5)
Line: Patriots by 1. Total: 43.5.
Sunday, Dec. 26, 1:00 PM

The Matchup. Edge: Unknown.

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NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The first thing I did when beginning to dissect this matchup is look up the weather. It’s projected to be 39 degrees and cloudy with 11-mph winds. It’s safe to say that these conditions will be more favorable for the passing game than they were the first time these teams met.

This obviously means that Mac Jones will throw the ball more than three times in this rematch. However, the Patriots will still limit Jones’ passing because this is such a difficult matchup. Save for Tom Brady, no quarterback has played well versus Buffalo this year. The Bills have the No. 1 pressure rate in the league, and young quarterbacks are more vulnerable than veterans when being constantly harassed in the backfield.

Despite Jones barely throwing the first time, the Patriots were still able to prevail by ramming the ball down Buffalo’s throat. The Bills made an adjustment late in that contest to help limit the big runs, so it’ll be interesting to see if Bill Belichick and his staff find a way to counter this strategy.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Bills had a chance to win the first matchup against the Patriots, but they put together a horrible game plan in which they ran the ball too much. Josh Allen, unlike Jones, had the arm strength to cut through the wind, but Buffalo inexplicably failed to realize this.

The Bills won’t be afraid to utilize Allen more in these conditions, but there’s a new problem, and that would be Allen’s foot injury. Allen played last week, but seemed bothered by his foot. Belichick undoubtedly recognizes this, so unless Allen can revert back to 100 percent, the Patriots won’t need to worry about Allen’s scrambles at all.

Speaking of Belichick, he’s the master of erasing one aspect of an opposing offense. That’ll obviously be Stefon Diggs, so Allen will have to look elsewhere. Allen has lots of talented weapons at his disposal, including Gabriel Davis, who is finally emerging after being a preseason favorite of mine.

RECAP: If I knew Allen were healthy, I would definitely back the Bills and even bet them for a considerable amount. However, unless we see evidence that Allen is healthy, I just can’t do it in this matchup. Allen will need his mobility against the Patriots’ potent pass rush. If he’s stuck in the pocket, it’ll be difficult for the Bills to maximize their offensive success against Belichick.

Meanwhile, the Patriots will be able to trample Buffalo’s woeful run defense once more. That’s one of two major mismatches in this game, and the Patriots will definitely be able to exploit it. The other mismatch is Buffalo’s tremendous pass defense against Jones, but Belichick and his staff will put Jones in a position where he doesn’t have to throw very much. Belichick was fine with Jones throwing just three times in the Monday night victory, after all!

I’m not going to bet this game because we just don’t know about Allen’s status. If he emerges as 100 percent in this contest, I won’t want to be wagering against him. And if he’s still banged up, I don’t want to risk money on that.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Josh Allen practiced fully Wednesday. If I hadn’t been burned with these quarterback injuries so much this year, I’d believe that he has improved to 100 percent. It’s hard to buy that now.

SATURDAY NOTES: So much for Josh Allen having plenty of weapons at his disposal! Both Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis are out, so if Bill Belichick erases Stefon Diggs, all Allen will have at his disposal are Emmanuel Sanders and Dawson Knox. Making matters worse, Allen, who may not be completely mobile yet, will be missing several blockers. I’m going to switch to the Patriots.

SATURDAY NOTES: Dion Dawkins will play, so I’m switching back to the Bills. As you can see, I’m very torn on this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Sharp money has come in on the Bills. I wonder if they know anything about Josh Allen’s foot injury. If I knew he were healthy, I would be betting the Bills for a couple of units. I still think the teaser is the way to go. If you missed out on the Packers, I’d pair the Bills +7 with the Falcons -1.5.

The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Patriots -1.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Patriots -2.
Computer Model: Patriots -1.
DVOA Spread: Patriots -2.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on New England: 55% (63,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

History: Patriots have won 31 of the last 35 meetings.

Patriots are 43-23 ATS in December & January home games since 2000.

Bill Belichick is 21-12 ATS with extra time to prepare.

Opening Line: Patriots -2.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Cloudy, 40 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.

Week 16 NFL Pick: Bills 20, Patriots 17
Bills +1 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Teaser: Packers -1.5, Bills +8.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Under 43.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Bills 33, Patriots 21

Week 16 NFL Picks – Late Games
Bears at Seahawks, Steelers at Chiefs, Broncos at Raiders, Redskins at Cowboys, Dolphins at Saints

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 16 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Nov. 20

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)