NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 10, 2022

Atlanta Falcons (4-5) at Carolina Panthers (2-7)
Line: Falcons by 3. Total: 41.5.
Thursday, Nov. 10, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

Week 9 Analysis: We finally had a rebound week. Granted, it wasn’t a great one, but it’s nice to be out of the red for the first time since Week 4. I’ll continue to break down all the 3+ unit picks each week:

Redskins, 4 units (win): Phew! When the Redskins were whistled for a penalty on the Vikings’ field goal attempt, I thought they would blow the cover for sure.

Lions, 5 units (win): We had the moneyline as well, so that was nice.

Falcons, 4 units (push): The Falcons, as three-point underdogs, were winning most of the game. If the Atlanta defender didn’t fumble Austin Ekeler’s fumble, the Falcons likely would have won. This push was unfortunate.

Panthers, 5 units (loss): No effort at all. Pathetic.

Raiders, 4 units (loss): The Raiders were up 17-0 and 20-7, so I don’t know why they didn’t score at all in the second half.

Before I begin, I should note that we have some new features, including WalterFootball Premium. We’ve gotten lots of complaints about the ads over the years, but there hasn’t been anything I can do about them because I’ve needed the ad revenue to pay my employees and the hosting. This is an alternative way to view the site. For $7.99 per month, you won’t get any ads. You’ll also have access to a premium chat where I’ll be every day to answer any questions. The chat will be available soon. If you want to support the site, besides telling others about it, signing up for WalterFootball Premium would be a great way to do so!

CAROLINA OFFENSE: We know exactly how this matchup will go because we just saw it two weeks ago. Nothing has changed since then. Well, nothing except for Carolina looking like complete dog s**t in Cincinnati this past Sunday.

I believe that disappointing result was a byproduct of the Panthers being exhausted following their disappointing overtime loss to the Falcons. They’ll try harder off an embarrassing defeat, so we’ll see more of the same from them in this game. Phillip Walker played well against the Falcons two weeks ago, and he’ll once again throw into their putrid secondary with not much resistance. The Falcons have no pass rush, so Walker will have all the time he needs to locate D.J. Moore and Terrace Marshall.

The Falcons are better against the run than the pass, but only by default. This didn’t mean very much in the Week 8 matchup, as D’Onta Foreman trampled them with ease. Foreman should be able to do so again.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: The Falcons didn’t do much offensively in the previous matchup until the fourth quarter and overtime. However, there’s reason to believe they’ll be more successful this time. I wrote earlier that nothing has changed since Week 8, but that’s not entirely true. The biggest difference is that Cordarrelle Patterson has returned from injury.

The Panthers are usually stout against the run, so it was odd to see them get trampled by Joe Mixon, who previously resembled someone running in quicksand. Again, they may have just been exhaustion, so the Panthers will do a better job versus Patterson. That said, Patterson is someone who can go the distance whenever he touches the ball, so he could be stopped until he breaks a big gain.

Carolina’s pass rush has been disappointing this year, so if the Falcons are brazen enough to throw the ball frequently this week, they’ll do well, at least until Marcus Mariota misses a wide-open receiver downfield. Kyle Pitts had a solid outing in Week 8, so he could duplicate that performance unless Mariota fails to connect with him on a deep bomb again.

RECAP: This spread is not correct, as it’s an overreaction to what happened last week. Everyone watched the Panthers get obliterated in Cincinnati, and they expect the same thing to happen in this game even though the Bengals are a much better team than the Falcons. Casual bettors are also not factoring in that Carolina was exhausted and demoralized.

Teams off losses of 21-plus cover at a 52-percent rate, so the blowout defeat should be viewed as a positive, if anything. Of course, there’s nuance to it, and I think that nuance makes Carolina look more favorable because of the spread mispricing. I made this line Atlanta -1, while the advance spread was Atlanta -1.5. These teams are just five spots apart in net adjusted EPA, so a visitor line of -3 makes no sense.

I’m betting the Panthers for a few units. I love getting wins with three key numbers and a push with the fourth, and we get to fade the public as a cherry on top.

Our Week 10 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps have brought this line down to +2.5 in some sportsbooks. You can still get a reasonable +3 for -115 vig at FanDuel, so I’ll lock that in now before it disappears. I’m also including this as part of a teaser that I intend to middle on the final leg if the first two are correct.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m glad I locked this in Wednesday evening because the sharps have bet the Panthers down to +2.5. I’m no longer seeing any viable +3s. The best +2.5 is for -105 vig at FanDuel.

Seattle Seahawks (6-3) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5)
Line: Buccaneers by 3. Total: 44.5.
Sunday, Nov. 13, 9:30 AM
at Germany


The Matchup. Edge: Seahawks.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: “That was awesome. That was f**king awesome.” This is what Tom Brady told the media after his last-second victory over the Rams. Brady had a terrific final drive, but when considering the level of opponent he barely defeated, he shouldn’t have been that ecstatic.

Would it surprise you if I said that Brady will be battling a tougher defense this week? It’s true. The Rams are 12th in net adjusted EPA, while the Seahawks are ninth. The Rams have the second-worst pass rush in the NFL, while Seattle has a solid pressure rate. More importantly, it gets to the quarterback without blitzing at all, which is an easy way to bother Brady, especially considering that he has a pedestrian offensive line in front of him.

The Seahawks have some talented cornerbacks who can slow down Mike Evans and Chris Godwin a bit, and they’re also 10th versus the run. Leonard Fournette will once again struggle to find running room, forcing Brady into unfavorable situations.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: There’s no question that the Buccaneers have the worst defense in this matchup. We didn’t see it last week because the Rams have a pitiful offense that can’t block at all, but it wasn’t too long ago that the Ravens gashed Tampa Bay mercilessly on the ground with backup running backs.

If Kenyan Drake could have major success against the Buccaneers, what’s going to happen when Tampa attempts to tackle Kenneth Walker? The second-round rookie was excellent last week and should continue to dominate versus a defense ranked 28th in run defense EPA.

The Buccaneers are a bit better against the pass, but only by default. They can’t get to the quarterback without blitzing, especially now that Shaq Barrett is out for the year. This is music to Geno Smith’s ears, as Smith is completing 72 percent of his passes against the blitz this year.

RECAP: I don’t know what to make of this game. In a vacuum, this spread is incorrect. The Seahawks are better than the Buccaneers. The record says so. The eyeball test says so. And the metrics say so as well. The Seahawks are nine spots better than the Buccaneers in net adjusted EPA.

So, why is Tampa Bay favored? There are two answers I came up with, and both are radically different. The first is the simplest solution, which would be that the public still thinks the Buccaneers are a good team. People just saw Tampa Bay beat the Rams in a national TV game. What they may not realize is that the Rams are dreadful this year, so a victory over Los Angeles at the very last second was far from impressive.

The second reason is that this is an absurd start time for the Seahawks. Not only do they have to fly halfway around the world to play this game; they’ll have to play at a 6:30 a.m. local start time. This has to be a huge disadvantage against the Buccaneers, who are playing an early European game at 9:30 a.m. local, which is far more reasonable.

There has been only one instance of a West Coast team battling an East Coast team in a 9:30 a.m. European game. This occurred in 2016, with the Giants beating the Rams, 17-10. There was one game between a West Coast team and a Central Time Zone team in a 9:30 a.m. start. That West Coast team, the Chargers, prevailed over the Titans, but failed to cover the 6.5-point spread in a 20-19 victory.

I don’t know why Roger Goodell would screw over the Seahawks like this, but he has demonstrated that he doesn’t care about the players or fans at all by scheduling these ridiculous early games. They screw over people playing fantasy football on the West Coast, but Goodell doesn’t care. He’d have two teams play on Pluto at 3 a.m. if it could make him a quick buck.

At any rate, I don’t want to bet on a team playing a 6:30 a.m. local start, even if they’re the superior team. I’m sitting this one out. I’ll just be happy to say good riddance to these dumb early games for 2022 after this is over.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s a Seattle +3 -115 line available at Bovada. If I were betting the Seahawks, I’d consider locking them in at that price.

SATURDAY NOTES: Still no bet for me, as there haven’t been any surprise injuries. The only note in that regard is that Antoine Winfield will be returning from his concussion. Once again, I worry about the Seahawks with this ridiculous start time. I should also note that some people have mentioned that Brady could be distracted from all the money he lost from the FTX disaster, but perhaps that’ll make him motivated because he’ll be seeking a huge contract after this season.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still have no interest in betting this god-forsaken 6:30 a.m. local start time for the Seahawks. If I had to place a wager, I would still be on Seattle, and I would go with the +3 -128 at Bookmaker. The sharps had some interest very early in the week on Tampa Bay -1, but haven’t touched this -2.5.

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-2)
Line: Chiefs by 9.5. Total: 51.
Sunday, Nov. 13, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides are now 16-15 this year.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Eagles -13

Seahawks +2

There wasn’t much last week.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Cowboys -6

Bears -3

Chiefs -9.5

Titans -3

Raiders -6.5

It should surprise no one that the Cowboys, Bears and Chiefs are getting the most interest. People want to bet on Justin Fields now.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: I spoke of Tom Brady’s great final drive versus the Rams in the previous game capsule. That was nothing compared to what Patrick Mahomes did later that night. Battling a top-five defense, Mahomes crawled back from an eight-point deficit and beat the Titans in overtime after throwing for 400-plus yards on 68 attempts. This fell just two passes shy of Drew Brees’ all-time attempts record.

Mahomes will have a much easier matchup in this game. The Jaguars just allowed Derek Carr to relentlessly hit Davante Adams with passes in the opening half. I don’t know what happened after halftime in regard to the Raiders getting shut out, but it wasn’t too long ago that they didn’t have an answer for Matt Ryan.

Making matters worse, Jacksonville is mediocre when it comes to generating a pass rush. That will put them behind the eight ball when dealing with Mahomes, who can only be contained when battling a devastating pass rush that doesn’t rely on the blitz.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: I recently saw a debate on Twitter involving a known writer about whether or not the Jaguars would prefer Trevor Lawrence or Justin Fields right now. Lawrence has better passing upside, but it’s difficult to ignore Fields’ ridiculous rushing ability. Also, Lawrence hasn’t been all that great as a passer. He thrived versus the Raiders last week, but struggled in London the prior Sunday. He’s just 19th in adjusted EPA among quarterbacks, putting him behind Matt Ryan. Yikes.

Lawrence has a much more difficult matchup this week, as he’ll be battling a Chiefs team that is strong against the pass. This is because Kansas City is great at generating pressure on the quarterback, ranking seventh in that regard. Lawrence doesn’t have great protection in front of him, so he’ll struggle versus the Chiefs’ pass rush.

However, the Jaguars still stand a good chance of moving the chains because of Travis Etienne. The excellent running back is now getting all the touches in the wake of the James Robinson trade, and he has looked terrific since taking on the full-time role. The Chiefs have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, so the Jaguars can establish Etienne and drain time off the clock as a helpless Mahomes stands on the sidelines.

RECAP: The Chiefs have been a massive money pit for bettors. Since Week 2, they are just 2-5 against the spread. Everyone remembers their big victories because both were marquee games (Buccaneers, 49ers), but they have failed to cover every other game since the opener.

Why is this? It definitely has something to do with the defense, which ranks 22nd in EPA. The Chiefs score lots of points, but they allow a ton as well. They gave up at least 20 to every opponent they’ve played until last week when the Malik Willis-led Titans scored 17. If the Chiefs are to cover this 10-point spread, they’ll need to score at least 30, which has happened for them just four times this year as a result of their offense being less explosive without Tyreek Hill.

Lawrence has had his struggles since beating the Chargers in Week 3, but he’ll be able to utilize Etienne against a horrible run defense. The Jaguars should be able to score plenty of points, especially in garbage time if they need to, as they’ll be battling a team that is exhausted following a grueling overtime victory against Tennessee.

We’re not getting crazy line value here, but I like the Jaguars enough to bet a couple of units.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The more I think about it, the more I like the Jaguars. Kansas City’s defense is so bad that the team shouldn’t be favored by this many points over a competent opponent. Plus, they’re going to be exhausted off their overtime game versus the Titans. I’m bumping this up to three units.

SATURDAY NOTES: As the week has progressed, I’ve found myself loving the Jaguars more and more. The Chiefs have a miserable defense and will be exhausted, while Jacksonville hasn’t lost a game by more than eight all year. If the Chiefs had a good defense, I wouldn’t be considering the Jaguars, but Kansas City’s “stop” unit is 27th in EPA. It’s no wonder they’ve covered the spread just twice since Week 2. I’m moving this to four units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There are no surprise injuries, and there’s no sharp action to speak of, but I love the Jaguars. The best line is +9.5 -108 at FanDuel.

Houston Texans (1-6-1) at New York Giants (6-2)
Line: Giants by 4.5. Total: 41.
Sunday, Nov. 13, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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HOUSTON OFFENSE: The Texans don’t have the best passing talent on this side of the ball. Poor Davis Mills had to rely on the likes of Phillip Dorsett and Chris Moore in a Thursday night affair against the Eagles. Despite this, Mills had a half-decent game, as he kept Houston competitive for nearly 60 minutes.

Of course, the reason Mills had success was Philadelphia’s struggles when it came to tackling Dameon Pierce. The rookie running back has enjoyed a great campaign thus far, and he figures to thrive once again in this matchup. The Giants are mediocre when it comes to stopping the run, so Pierce should be able to trample another NFC East opponent.

Pierce’s great running will once again make things easier for Mills, who will be battling a defense that blitzes more than any other team in the NFL. I’m sure Mills is happy about this because he has thrown five touchdowns and no interceptions, all while completing 66 percent of his passes this year while being blitzed.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Like the Giants, the Texans cannot stop the run. They are dead last in that regard. They were allowing Derrick Henry to rip off huge gains when they knew the Titans were going to run, so that does not bode well for them in this matchup, as Saquon Barkley figures to have a great performance.

The Giants will need Barkley to thrive because they have a couple of injuries on the offensive line, which will hurt Daniel Jones’ pass protection. The Texans are much better against the pass than the run, and that’s not by default. They have a solid pass rush that could give Jones some issues, especially when considering that Jones doesn’t have much receiving talent at his disposal.

Of course, Jones could bail out the team with some key scrambles. Jones is no Justin Fields, but he has a 100-yard rushing performance this year, so he could have a big running game against a defense that struggles to tackle.

RECAP: I pounded my desk and yelled “F**k!” on Monday afternoon. My wife heard me from downstairs and asked if everything was OK. I told her that everything was fine, but I was pissed because the Giants-Texans line moved. I planned on writing up the game on Monday afternoon when the spread was +7, but just missed it by about an hour.

In case you can’t tell, I love the Texans just as much as the sharps do. This is an inflated spread because the Giants as a whole are overrated. They’ve achieved a 6-2 record, but have many sketchy wins. They easily could’ve lost to the Titans and Panthers to start the year. They beat the Packers in London, but that victory looks extremely unimpressive now. They beat the Ravens, but Baltimore was coming off a series of tough games and didn’t seem to be giving its A+ effort. In hindsight, it’s no surprise that the Seahawks dominated the Giants in Week 8.

I don’t think the Giants are a bad team, by any means, but they easily could be 4-4 or even 3-5 right now, and if that were the case, they would not be touchdown favorites over anyone. The Giants also haven’t been greater than field goal favorites over anyone this year. That’s exactly what they are now, and yet they are a bit shorthanded on the offensive line.

The Texans, meanwhile, have been competitive in almost every game. They’ve stayed within 10 of every team they’ve played this year except for the Raiders and Eagles. And if you recall, they were beating the Raiders heading into the fourth quarter, and they gave the Eagles everything they could handle. They have a terrible record, but I don’t see why they would suddenly be blown out.

Given that we’re getting wins with five key numbers, I’m inclined to make the Texans one of my top bets of the week. I wish we were getting +7 – thanks, stupid sharps – but +6.5 should still be good enough.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No Evan Neal in practice on Wednesday. The sharps continue to bet Houston.

SATURDAY NOTES: It sucks to have missed the +7, +6.5 and +6, but I’m not too concerned. If this game lands on five or six, Vegas will be middled, which almost never happens.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are all over the Texans. The public likes the Giants. It sucks that we’re not getting the best numbers, but I don’t think Vegas is getting middled. Houston +4.5 +100 at BetUS is the best number.

New Orleans Saints (3-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-6)
Line: Pick. Total: 39.
Sunday, Nov. 13, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Steelers.

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NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Saints failed to do much of anything offensively Monday night, scoring just six points before garbage time. It was a pathetic display by Andy Dalton, who suffered yet another embarrassing defeat in a primetime game.

To be fair to Dalton, he was battling a Baltimore defense obtained some reinforcements. Dalton would normally be primed to bounce back against a woeful Pittsburgh pass defense, but the Steelers will be getting some help themselves. That “help” is just one of the two best defensive players in the NFL, as Pittsburgh is optimistic that T.J. Watt will play this week. I shouldn’t have to tell you that Watt will have a profound impact on Pittsburgh’s defense. Throughout Watt’s career, when he’s been on the field, the Steelers have generally maintained a top-eight pass defense. When he has missed time, Pittsburgh aerial defense drops into the bottom 10. That’s how important Watt is to this team.

Dalton had severe problems with Baltimore’s pass rush last week, and he’ll have similar issues versus a Watt-led pass rush. The Steelers should also be able to put the clamps on Alvin Kamara, as they’ve been average against the run this year without their best player.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: I imagine Kenny Pickett needed the bye week to become acclimated to his teammates. The Steelers have a much more consolidated receiving corps now with Chase Claypool gone, but that could be addition by subtraction. Claypool was an inefficient receiver, whereas Diontae Johnson and George Pickens project to be better over the long term. Pickens is an incredible athlete, so giving him more targets will only help Pickett.

Something else that will help Pickett is this matchup. Thanks to injuries in the secondary and a diminished pass rush, the Saints struggle to stop the pass. They’re 22nd in aerial defense EPA, and they have the sixth-worst pressure rate in the NFL. Pickett could have his best game yet.

The Pittsburgh running game could improve as well. As we saw Monday night, the Saints couldn’t stop the run. They had issues dealing with Kenyan Drake. Najee Harris has been dreadful this year, but it sounds like the Steelers want to give Jaylen Warren more touches.

RECAP: If we could get Pittsburgh +3, I’d lock this bet in right away for a huge play. These teams are right next to each other in net adjusted EPA when factoring in Watt’s return. The fact that the Steelers would be getting a field goal while at home versus a Saints team playing on a short week would be a tremendous gift from the betting gods.

Still, +2.5 sounds good to me if Watt can make his return. I suppose it’s not guaranteed, but Watt was practicing in full pads on Monday. All signs seem to indicate that he’ll be back on the field, which makes Pittsburgh very attractive as any sort of underdog.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: All reports indicate T.J. Watt is due back on Sunday, and the spread moving in Pittsburgh’s direction is reflecting that.

SATURDAY NOTES: This is my November NFL Pick of the Month. I was waiting on T.J. Watt news, and Watt will offically play Sunday. The Saints, meanwhile, will be down three offensive linemen, as well as Michael Thomas, Pete Werner, Marshon Lattimore, and perhaps Marcus Maye. The Saints, who were just trashed by a Ravens team missing Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman, will likely be missing seven starters against a Steeler team that has endured a brutal schedule this year. With the exception of the Browns and Buccaneers, every single team Pittsburgh has played this year currently has a winning record. For their home games, the Steelers lost to the Patriots by three, lost to the Jets by four when New York still had Breece Hall and Alijah Vera-Tucker, and beat the Buccaneers by two. And all of this was without Watt! In short, this is the Steelers’ easiest home game to date.

And if you’re not convinced yet, here’s another major element to consider: Dalton will be playing against Mike Tomlin, who is 11-4 straight up off a bye. This used to happen quite often when Dalton was quarterback of the Bengals. Being a great defensive coach, Tomlin has a book on Dalton, and it’s quite a good one. Dalton is just 3-13 against Tomlin!

The only area of concern is the amount of money coming in on the Steelers, but it appears as though a decent chunk of it is sharp action. With that in mind, I love the Steelers this week, and I doubt I’ll be higher on any other team this month.

SATURDAY NOTES II: T.J. Watt has been activated, but Minkah Fitzpatrick is out. That’s a bummer, but I’m not concerned. The Steelers beat the Buccaneers without Fitzpatrick.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Some sharp money is coming in on the Steelers, despite the Minkah Fitzpatrick absence. The Steelers are now favored in most sportsbooks, but they’re still pick ’em at Bookmaker.

Detroit Lions (1-6) at Chicago Bears (3-5)
Line: Bears by 3. Total: 48.5.
Sunday, Nov. 13, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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CHICAGO OFFENSE: Justin Fields … wow! He was magnificent as a runner against the Dolphins, but he also threw some dimes that showcased his overall potential. Just wait until the front office surrounds him with some talent.

As it stands now, however, Fields doesn’t have much help. This includes his offensive line, which is one of the worst pass-blocking units in the NFL. I imagine most people wouldn’t think this would be a problem against the Lions, but Detroit just welcomed back Charles Harris, one of three previously injured Lions players who made his return in Week 9. The Lions have a much better with Harris joining Aidan Hutchinson. Detroit also blitzes frequently, which doesn’t bode well for Fields, whose YPA drops below seven and turnover-worthy play percentage rises.

The Bears will obviously look to run the ball to take pressure off Fields, but I don’t know if this will be possible. As mentioned, the Lions are healthier now, so it’s not a surprise that they were able to contain Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon last week. The Dolphins didn’t have much success running with Raheem Mostert either the prior Sunday.

DETROIT OFFENSE: People recognize the Lions as having an anemic defense, but you could say the same thing of the Bears, especially now that Roquan Smith and Robert Quinn are gone. In fact, Chicago is seven spots worse than the Lions in adjusted defensive EPA. They are dead last.

Chicago is especially terrible when it comes to stopping the run, which bodes poorly against the Lions, who love to rush the ball. Jamaal Williams should have a big game, unless D’Andre Swift is healthier and can handle more of a workload.

The Lions will also have success passing against the Bears. Chicago has possessed one of the worst pressure rates in the NFL since trading Quinn. Tua Tagovailoa did anything he wanted against the Bears, and Jared Goff will have plenty of success as well.

RECAP: Everyone is so excited to bet the Bears. Can you blame casual bettors? Fields looked incredible against the Dolphins. He broke the single-game quarterback rushing record. How can he possibly be stopped!?

There’s a disconnect here, and it’s that the Lions played just as impressively versus the Dolphins; perhaps even more so, given that they had a two-touchdown lead versus Miami at one point, while the Bears trailed for most of the game. The Lions have actually kept most of their games close versus tough competition. They’ve faced a murderer’s row of ridiculous opponents, including the Eagles, Cowboys, Vikings, Seahawks, and Dolphins. And yet, all of those contests were tight. That includes the Dallas game, which was a 10-6 score with three minutes remaining in regulation.

The Lions are not as bad as people think they are. Their offense is solid, while the defense has improved with three starters returning from injury. As mentioned earlier, Detroit’s defense is ranked higher than Chicago’s defense in net adjusted EPA!

With Harris back from injury, the Lions will be able to apply pressure on Fields. I’m sure Fields will have some great scrambles, but Fields has gotten lucky in two of his previous wins by not battling teams with a heavy pass rush. That’ll change this week.

Furthermore, I love the spread value we’re getting with the Lions. The advance number was Chicago -1.5, but the Bears are now -3. This means we’re getting wins with three key numbers and a push with the fourth despite betting on the better squad.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The vig is rising in Detroit’s favor, so there might be a move to +2.5 soon. I may lock this in soon.

SATURDAY NOTES: I can’t believe how many people I’ve heard opine that the Bears should be favored by way more, with some suggesting that this line should be -6! If you like fading overreactions, the Lions must be on your card this week.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m surprised the sharps haven’t been on the Lions, but they haven’t taken a side. I was hoping for a +3 -110 somewhere, and we can get that at Bovada.

Cleveland Browns (3-5) at Miami Dolphins (6-3)
Line: Dolphins by 3. Total: 49.5.
Sunday, Nov. 13, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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MIAMI OFFENSE: Tua Tagovailoa has been incredible the past two weeks. He rebounded from a sluggish game against the Steelers and then proceeded to torch the Lions and Bears mercilessly. Granted, Detroit and Chicago have two of the worst pass defenses in the NFL, but it still has been impressive. Tagovailoa has helped Tyreek Hill become the fastest receiver to 1,000 yards in a single season.

While the Dolphins have been at their best when throwing the ball in recent games, they could change tactics this week. The Browns are much better versus the pass, ranking 14th in that department. They recently stymied Joe Burrow, frustrating him so much that he didn’t score a single point until garbage time.

By changing tactics, the Dolphins could deploy a heavy rushing attack. Jeff Wilson Jr. has joined Raheem Mostert in the backfield, and the two figure to trample Cleveland’s rush defense, which ranks dead last in the NFL.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: If I were writing this analysis two weeks ago, I would be talking about how I believe Jacoby Brissett would have a big advantage against his former team. The Dolphins are ranked as one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL, after all, thanks to a pathetic pressure rate. Brissett would have all the time in the world to locate Amari Cooper, Donovan Peoples-Jones and perhaps David Njoku, who could return from injury this week.

However, things have changed. The Dolphins made a blockbuster trade, acquiring Bradley Chubb from the Broncos. Chubb is an excellent pass rusher, and his mere presence will help transform Miami’s defense. Chubb being able to generate heat on opposing passers will provide a huge boon for the secondary, which needs all the help it can get against Brissett’s weapons.

It’ll certainly help the Dolphins that they’ll be able to deal with Cleveland’s powerful rushing attack. Miami has been stout against ground games, so Nick Chubb won’t completely dominate like he usually does.

RECAP: I thought this spread was mispriced before I looked at my calculated line. My personal number is Miami -4.5, which is not too far off from what it really is.

Frankly, I’m surprised by both this spread and the lack of enthusiasm from the public to bet the Dolphins at what I perceived to be a low spread. I thought the public would be all over the Dolphins at -4, but apparently not.

I’ll take it. It’s a shame we’re getting only two key numbers with the Dolphins, but I think they’re the right side.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Sharp money on the Browns brought this line down to +3.5. I guess they disagree with my assessment that the Dolphins’ defense will be much better with Bradley Chubb.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Browns will be getting Wyatt Teller back, while Miami’s starting tackles are both questionable after missing practice this week. I still can’t say I have a good feel for this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still have no feel for this game, though the sharps have been on the Browns all week. You can now get a viable -3 at Bookmaker and FanDuel for -118 vig.

Minnesota Vikings (7-1) at Buffalo Bills (6-2)
Line: Bills by 7. Total: 46.5.
Sunday, Nov. 13, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Vikings.

Video of the Week: If you’re a fan of MTG, you’ll like this video. MTG can be either Magic the Gathering or Majorie Taylor Green.



I don’t blame Ian at all. Urza is an a**hole card and should have never been printed.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: As of Tuesday afternoon, we have no idea if Josh Allen will play in this game. Allen suffered an elbow injury toward the end of the Jets game. It was damage to his ulnar collateral ligament and related nerves. I identify as doctor, but even I cannot predict if Allen will be able to play this Sunday. He’s expected to be limited in practice, but he may sit out this game.

If Allen plays, he may not fully be able to exploit the issues the Vikings have in their secondary. Minnesota has struggled against talented receivers this year, and under normal circumstances, Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis would be no exception. However, if Allen can’t put everything he has into his throws, it may not matter. Allen will still have success as a scrambler, but Buffalo’s offense as a whole will be limited.

If Allen sits, Case Keenum will draw the start. That could mean more success for Diggs and Davis if Allen’s elbow is a huge problem, but Keenum obviously doesn’t have Allen’s rushing upside.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Even if Keenum starts, the Vikings aren’t home free to achieve an easy victory. They still have to deal with Buffalo’s defense, which, when healthy, is one of the best stop units in the NFL.

The Bills put great pressure on the quarterback with Von Miller, which bodes poorly for Kirk Cousins. Few quarterbacks are worse at dealing with pressure than Cousins. While under duress, Cousins completes just 38.9 percent of his passes. Compare this with another mediocre quarterback, Derek Carr, for instance. Carr has a 49.4-percent completion rate while under pressure. Matt Ryan completed 51.2 percent of his passes when pressured, and he was benched!

The Vikings can’t count on Cousins to succeed in this matchup, but perhaps they won’t need to do so. Dalvin Cook has a great edge on paper, given that the Bills were poor against the run last week. This was because they were missing their top linebacker, Matt Milano. It remains to be seen if Milano will be able to return from injury.

RECAP: This game is impossible to handicap at the moment because it’s unclear what Allen’s status will be. Allen may miss this game, or he may play injured. In the latter case, I would have interest in the Vikings, as fading injured starting quarterbacks is often a lucrative tactic because the oddsmakers don’t make enough of an adjustment. Conversely, if Case Keenum starts in favor of Allen, the Bills would look appealing because I love betting on good teams playing their backup quarterbacks.

For the official pick, check back later or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This line keeps falling in Minnesota’s favor because of increased concern about Josh Allen’s availability. Allen missed Wednesday’s practice, but he could still play.

SATURDAY NOTES: It’s official. The Bills will have him. Matt Milano will return! This is actually a big deal for Buffalo. As for Josh Allen’s status, he missed Wednesday and Thursday’s practice before returning to a limited practice Friday. It’s unclear if he’ll play, but someone is betting big on that not happening because the line has dropped to Minnesota -3.

SATURDAY NOTES II: The Bills didn’t call up a third quarterback, so Josh Allen will start. This spread has risen to -6.5. I like the Vikings at that number because Allen may not be 100 percent. Given the uncertainty, I don’t want to bet this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Josh Allen will play, but the Bills are down plenty of defensive starters. Tre’Davious White, Gregory Rousseau, Jordan Poyer and Kaiir Elam are all out, which would explain why the sharps are on Minnesota. I would be on the Vikings as well because it’s not clear if Allen is healthy. I can’t find a better line than +5 -110 at Bookmaker.

Denver Broncos (3-5) at Tennessee Titans (5-3)
Line: Titans by 2.5. Total: 39.
Sunday, Nov. 13, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are complete. They may return in the future, but I had to stop them for now. Besides, I wrote a similar-type book is called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:



Oh, and my other book is still available as well:



In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: As with the previous game, the starting quarterback on one side has yet to be determined. Ryan Tannehill traveled with the team to Kansas City last week, but sat out in favor of Malik Willis. The Liberty quarterback threw two pretty passes in the opening half, but proceeded to have a meltdown as the evening progressed. His inability to move the chains allowed Patrick Mahomes to generate a comeback.

Tannehill might have a decent chance of playing because it seemed like he was close last week. However, he may not be 100 percent upon his return. Tannehill’s mobility is a key part of his play, and if he can’t move well on his bum ankle, it’ll give Denver a big edge. The Broncos already projected to generate a heavy pass rush against a Tennessee offensive line missing its left tackle.

Of course, the Broncos will have to stop Derrick Henry to get the Tennessee offense off the field. This could be a big problem for the Broncos, who are worse against the run than the pass. We’ve seen them struggle against Travis Etienne and Breece Hall recently, so stopping Henry will be an issue.

DENVER OFFENSE: Russell Wilson dealt with his own injury prior to the bye. He had a bum hamstring that kept him out of the Jets game. He returned versus Jacksonville the following week and was surprisingly effective. Granted, he was battling a pedestrian Jaguar defense, but he still performed above expectations.

This is a much more difficult matchup for Wilson. The Titans are eighth in pass defense EPA, and they generate a solid pass rush. The Broncos have some problems on the offensive line that the Titans can exploit, particularly with Jeffery Simmons dominating the interior.

The Broncos won’t be able to rely on their rushing attack either. Javonte Williams is long gone, and the trio of Melvin Gordon, Latavius Murray and Chase Edmonds won’t have any success against Tennessee’s No. 1 ground defense.

RECAP: Here’s another game where we don’t know who the starting quarterback will be. Is it Tannehill or Willis? Tannehill is obviously more trustworthy, especially against a highly ranked defense. However, we don’t know if he’ll be healthy. Willis, meanwhile, did a fine job versus the Chiefs in the first half, but there’s a huge difference between the Denver and Kansas City defenses.

This will be another game that I’ll have to decide on later in the week once we have better information on the quarterback injury. I’ll have further updates once we have a better idea about Tennessee’s quarterback situation. I’m penciling in Tennessee for now.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Ryan Tannehill was limited in Wednesday’s practice, and yet this spread dropped in Denver’s favor. I deifnitely like Tennessee a lot more at -2.5 than -3, as 14 percent of all NFL games land on three. However, I worry about Tennessee’s mindset after an overtime game and before a Thursday night affair.

SATURDAY NOTES: Holy crap, Tennessee’s injury report is brutal. Jeffery Simmons, Bud Dupree, Zach Cunningham and Amani Hooker have all been ruled out. Ryan Tannehill could play, but was downgraded from full to limited in Friday’s practice. Normally, this would make me love the Broncos, but Denver has tons of injury question marks as well, and I don’t like backing Nathaniel Hackett versus Mike Vrabel without a ton of points. I’m going to switch to the Broncos, but I’m not sure if I’ll be betting this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Everyone knows the Titans are down lots of players, but the Broncos will be missing some key talents as well, including Justin Simmons. I have no interest here, though the sharps liked Denver at +3. That line is long gone.