NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 10, 2022

Indianapolis Colts (3-5-1) at Las Vegas Raiders (2-6)
Line: Raiders by 4. Total: 41.
Sunday, Nov. 13, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Both of these teams have internal coaching issues. Of course, the Colts already fired Frank Reich, which is a relief. If I had to watch another play where a quarterback lined up in shotgun at the 1-inch line, I’d lose my mind. Jeff Saturday, who has no coaching experience, will take Reich’s place, which I think is fine. Saturday was one of the leaders of the Colts teams, so he can be a rah-rah type of hype coach, as the assistants continue to do their job. The players know that Saturday is an arm of Irsay’s, so they will play hard for him.

The Colts have a favorable matchup against the Raiders’ defense, though every team could claim that. The Raiders had no answer for Trevor Lawrence last week, and they made Davis Mills look like the second coming of Deshaun Watson a few weeks ago. Despite Maxx Crosby’s presence, the Raiders produce the fifth-worst pressure rate in the NFL, so they won’t be able to take advantage of Indianapolis’ poor offensive line. The Raider secondary will have issues covering Michael Pittman Jr. as a consequence.

The Raiders are at least solid against the run – or at least they should be – so Jonathan Taylor won’t get much on the ground in a potential return. However, the Raider linebackers can be beaten in coverage, so getting Taylor or Deon Jackson in space could have a huge benefit.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: The Raiders have some serious issues as well. Charlie Campbell reported weeks ago in the NFL Hot Press that Mark Davis already regretted hiring Josh McDaniels. The players did not fight for McDaniels at all in the second half of last week’s game, as they blew a 20-7 lead. Following the game, Derek Carr told the media that he wanted to say something about the current conditions of the team, but couldn’t do it.

It was shocking to see Carr connecting to Davante Adams effortlessly in the first half of last week’s game, only for him to fail to complete passes to his superstar receiver in the second half. Indianapolis’ defense will prevent that from happening too often. Unlike the Raiders, the Colts can generate pressure on the quarterback, so they’ll be able to harass Carr.

The Colts also happen to be stout against the run. They just put the clamps on Rhamondre Stevenson, so they’ll be able to handle Josh Jacobs, who has cooled off considerably in the past two weeks.

RECAP: I don’t understand this spread at all. In what world do the dreadful Raiders deserve to be 6.5-point favorites over a competent opponent? The Raiders are the ninth-worst team in net adjusted EPA, with their defense ranking 28th. The Colts are actually three spots ahead of them in those rankings, thanks to their sixth-ranked defensive EPA.

I made this spread Raiders -1, but if you think I’m too off the wall with that projection, the advance line was Raiders -3.5. Why would this line move three points past the key number of six? The only thing I can think of is the Colts’ coaching change, but that’s probably a good thing. Teams playing their first game with a new head coach are 14-10 against the spread since the 2010 lockout. It’s not a great record, and it’s a small sample size, but it allows you to avoid fading a team simply because of a coaching change.

Instead, let’s focus on the Raiders’ coaching. It’s been dreadful, and based on Carr’s attitude, the players seem fed up. If any team isn’t going to be focused in this game, it’ll be the Raiders. The Colts look great at this spread, with there being five wins among the six key numbers.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Sharp money has come in on the Colts, moving this line from +6.5 to +6. I’m going to lock this in now at +6 because I’d hate to miss out on that key number. It’s already +5.5 at FanDuel.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m glad we locked in the Colts because they’ve dropped to +4.5. That said, as I mentioned in the Giants-Texans game, it’s unlikely that Vegas gets middled, so I’m not too worried about the line movement.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps continue to pound the Colts, bringing this spread down to +4.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Again, the sharps have been on the Colts, and I can’t see anything better than +4 available. The best line is +4 -105 at Bookmaker.

Arizona Cardinals (3-6) at Los Angeles Rams (3-5)
Line: Rams by 3. Total: 38.5.
Sunday, Nov. 13, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Rams.

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LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: A week ago, it was unclear if Cooper Kupp would be able to play against the Buccaneers. He was dealing with an ankle sprain, but turned out to be fine. Kupp exploded for a long touchdown, which gave the Rams a lead that they held for most of the game.

Kupp and Matthew Stafford will have a difficult matchup in this game. The Cardinals are 10th in adjusted defensive EPA. They tend to smother No. 1 receivers, and they generate good pressure on the quarterback. The Rams have well-publicized issues with their pass protection, thanks to retirements and injuries, so the Cardinals will be able to put consistent heat on Stafford.

The Cardinals are in the top 10 of both run and pass defense, so Los Angeles doesn’t have an edge in the ground game either. Not that it would matter, as the Rams haven’t been able to move the chains on the ground at all.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Kyler Murray has not done well against the Rams. He has won just one of eight matchups against them. The primary reason for this is that the Rams have always possessed a great pass rush, while Murray has never really been protected at a high level. The Cardinals’ pass protection issues continue, as the team missed four starting offensive linemen last week.

That said, there are a couple of reasons to think things will be different this time. First, the Rams don’t have a great pass rush anymore. They actually have the second-worst pressure rate in the NFL, as they’re ahead of only Atlanta. If the Cardinals will have some blockers back from injuries, I have faith that Murray will have better pass protection than usual.

Second, Murray hasn’t played with a healthy DeAndre Hopkins against the Rams. Hopkins was available for all three games last year, but he wasn’t healthy in the two losses. He’s been great since his return from suspension, so I like his chances of thriving in this matchup.

RECAP: The Rams have dominated the Cardinals in recent years, but that may not continue this time. I know the Cardinals have their problems, but those could be fixed with some linemen returning from injury. The Rams, however, have some serious concerns that cannot be fixed. Andrew Whitworth and Von Miller are long gone, so the Rams are not very good in the trenches. Meanwhile, no proven receiver can separate outside of Kupp.

The Rams are the fourth-worst team in the NFL in net adjusted EPA. Fourth worst! Their offense is dead last, while their defense is slightly above average. There’s no way a team like that should be favored by three or more against a competent opponent. The Cardinals qualify as such. I know they suffered a bad loss in Seattle, but the Seahawks are much better than the Rams this year.

Arizona is the superior team, and yet we’re getting four key numbers with them. The public refuses to believe that the Rams have regressed to being one of the worst teams in the NFL, so let’s take advantage of that.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This line dropped from -3 to -1.5 because Matthew Stafford was placed in concussion protocol. Call me crazy, but I like the Rams at -1.5 with John Wolford starting. Wolford is a premium backup and could force some of the Rams players to try harder. Plus, it sounds like the Cardinals may not have some key players, including Budda Baker and Rodney Hudson. The cherry on top is that if Wolflord starts, I can show you this graphic again:



Condolences if you had horrible RNG against a Wolflord as well.

SATURDAY NOTES: This line popped back from -1.5 to -3, so I assumed Matthew Stafford would play. Stafford, however, is a game-time decision. Perhaps the line move was for all of Arizona’s injuries. The Cardinals will be missing their top four offensive linemen, while Budda Baker was out of practice all week. Perhaps the most impactful, Kyler Murray went DNP-limited-limited with a hamstring in practice. If he can’t run around, the Cardinals won’t have a chance.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: It sounds like both starting quarterbacks will be sidelined. I still like the Rams regardless as long as the line is -3 or less.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Both quarterbacks are out, as expected. However, the Cardinals are also down D.J. Humphries and Byron Murphy. The best line is -3 -120 at BetUS, as the sharps bet the Rams up from -1.5.

Dallas Cowboys (6-2) at Green Bay Packers (3-6)
Line: Cowboys by 4. Total: 44.5.
Sunday, Nov. 13, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called the Nanny Hunt. Read about all the strange women we’ve interviewed to be our son’s nanny!

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Aaron Rodgers continued to struggle last week. This surprised many, despite Rodgers’ previous poor play, because he was battling the Lions. Detroit’s defense was famously putrid heading into Week 9, but limited the Packers to a single-digit output.

The Packers were able to move the ball effectively in between the 20s, but Rodgers repeatedly imploded in the red zone. Much of this seemed like bad luck, so I wouldn’t expect that to repeat in a normal matchup. This, however, is a far-from-normal battle for the Packers, given how monstrous Dallas’ pass rush happens to be. The Packers have talented blockers, but David Bakhtiari missed about half of last week’s loss to Detroit. If he’s out or limited, Rodgers won’t stand a chance.

Making matters worse for Rodgers, his supporting cast is even more depleted than usual. Aaron Jones, Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson left last week’s games with injuries. His only viable receiving threat is Allen Lazard, whom Dallas’ secondary can smother.

DALLAS OFFENSE: The Packers dealt with injuries on this side of the ball as well. Already down De’Vondre Campbell, the Packers watched Rashan Gary and Eric Stokes also leave with injuries. Gary has been ruled out for the year, and Stokes may have suffered a similar fate.

While the Packers are suffering more injuries, the Cowboys are getting healthier. Dak Prescott returned a bit early from a broken thumb and struggled versus Detroit, but was markedly better the following Sunday. With a week off, Prescott should be 100 percent. He’ll be able to connect frequently with CeeDee Lamb, as Green Bay has generally been poor versus No. 1 receivers this year.

The Packers, of course, are miserable when trying to stop the run. They’ll be hoping the Cowboys feed the ball to Ezekiel Elliott despite seeing how explosive Tony Pollard could be with a full workload. Pollard could still have a big game if he takes a back seat to Elliott again.

RECAP: I was talking to my friend Quacky Takes about this game prior to Week 9, and we were both surprised that the advance spread was Dallas -3. It was obvious that the public would slam the Cowboys at that price.

That spread is long gone. Thanks to Green Bay’s embarrassing loss at Detroit, the line has ballooned to -5.5, or even -6 in some sportsbooks. This would normally be quite the overreaction, but Green Bay’s new injuries cannot be ignored either. They have to be mentioned because we’re not getting true line value.

If the Packers were healthier, I’d love them at +6. However, we’re getting to the point where it’s going to be very difficult for Green Bay to be competitive. I’ll still back them, but could be swayed if the injury report looks worse than anticipated.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m changing my pick to the Cowboys. Green Bay’s injury report looks like my wife’s grocery list.

SATURDAY NOTES: Nothing has changed for me. The Packers will be missing a ton of players. I’d like them otherwise, but can’t back them as they currently stand.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps love the Packers. I don’t get it, but that’s what they are betting.

FINAL THOUGHTS: It’s insane how much sharp action there is on the Packers. The pros have driven this line down to +3.5. Bookmaker and FanDuel have -3.5 available.

Los Angeles Chargers (5-3) at San Francisco 49ers (4-4)
Line: 49ers by 8. Total: 45.
Sunday, Nov. 13, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: TBA.

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SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: It’s hard to fathom how great of a mismatch the 49ers have on this side of the ball, though we’ll actually get to see it in live action on Sunday night. I guess that’s one of the great things about sports.

The mismatch is the 49ers’ blocking unit versus the Chargers’ dreadful run defense. The Chargers can’t stop the rush at all, and San Francisco runs the ball extremely well. This was already the case prior to their big trade, but now the 49ers have Christian McCaffrey. The former Panther posted explosive numbers in his only full game with San Francisco prior to the bye, and now he has an even better matchup than he did versus the Rams.

McCaffrey’s presence will make things much easier for Jimmy Garoppolo, who will torch the Chargers with ease. San Angeles had issues stopping Marcus Mariota’s passing attack last week, so Garoppolo shouldn’t have any issues. He’ll also be able to connect with wide-open tight ends downfield, unlike Mariota.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The Chargers will need to score plenty of points to keep up with the 49ers. This will obviously involve passing effectively if the Chargers fall behind. For that to happen, Justin Herbert will need one of his dynamic receivers available.

The problem is that Mike Williams is already sidelined, while Keenan Allen’s hamstring somehow got worse during the bye. There’s a chance Allen could return this week, but there’s no guarantee he’ll be healthy. If he’s limited or sidelined, Herbert will have to rely on Joshua Palmer and some pedestrian receivers, which doesn’t seem like a winning strategy, especially with Herbert needing his Rashawn Slater-less offensive line to shield him from San Francisco’s pass rush. Jamaree Salyer has done a good job in place of Slater, but do you really trust him against Nick Bosa?

Of course, Herbert will get the ball to Austin Ekeler as much as possible. The 49ers are solid against the run, but Ekeler is a player who can break some big gains as a receiver out of the backfield.

RECAP: I would normally look to back a talented quarterback with lots of points. Herbert is someone who seldom loses by more than a touchdown, so the thinking is that he could keep this game close, especially if it involves a back-door cover.

However, the 49ers are a much better team, and they have so many mismatches in their favor. Thus, it’s tough to justify a bet on the Chargers, but I think there’s an argument to back them. Kyle Shanahan historically has done poorly as a big favorite (11-17 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 or more), and this spread is inflated. The advance line was San Francisco -3.5, and now it has moved across two key numbers. My personal numbers say that San Angeles -6 is correct, so we’re getting a bit of value in that regard.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No Keenan Allen or Mike Williams in Wednesday’s practice. Not good!

SATURDAY NOTES: Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are both out. Still, I’m tempted to make a small bet on the Chargers because I have a hard time seeing Justin Herbert getting blown out. That said, the Chargers’ offensive line injuries are a huge concern against the 49er front line. I probably won’t be betting this game because I may need a Chargers middle.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The squarest bettor I know LOVES the 49ers. This makes me want to bet the Chargers, but I’ll probably just be on the middle if the Steelers don’t disappoint me.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s a bit of sharp money on the 49ers. I’m not going to have an ordinary bet on this, but I will try to middle my teaser by betting 3.5 units on the Chargers +8. The best line is +8 -104 at Bookmaker.

Washington Redskins (4-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (8-0)
Line: Eagles by 11. Total: 43.5.
Monday, Nov. 14, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Philadelphia, the greatest city in the known universe and also the unknown universe! We have the Liberty Bell, which I visited on a school trip last year. We have cheesesteaks, which Mother used to let me eat if I did all my chores. And we have my Philadelphia Eagles, the team that is going to win the Super Game in Arizona! Guys, I’ve signed a petition to have Election Day moved because my Philadelphia Eagles are on national TV, and I’m going to be too drunk to vote after watching this game!

Emmitt: Michael Reilly, I very surprise that you drinking alcoholism. I only see soda, so I assume you mixing him with vodka, rum, or Jack uhh, Johnson. But I am very looking forward to vote on Election Day. I am voting for Donald Trunk to be presidence, and I am voting for Cameltoe Harris to be vice presidence. And I am voting for the Wizard of Oz to be the Supreme Court.

Reilly: Emmitt, you need to study up on your elections. Donald Trunk isn’t running this year, and Cameltoe Harris is Joe Biden’s vice president, so the two aren’t running together. And you shouldn’t vote for Oz, you should vote for Fenterman because he lived with his parents until he was 45. He’s like me. I wouldn’t be surprised if his mother makes him macaroni and cheese, and gives him school tests, and doesn’t allow him to talk to girls because they are the Devil.

Tollefson: You idiots, Election Day was six days ago. But I wasn’t with you on Fetterman until the very end. I agree that girls are the Devil and that you shouldn’t talk to them. But that’s exactly why you should kidnap them to cook and clean for you. No talking involved!

Reilly: Yeah, exactly, women can’t reject you if you ask them out if you don’t talk to them.

Jay Cutler: Wow, what a loser.

Reilly: I assume you’re talking about girls, New Daddy, and not me because I’ve never been rejected. The girls are the real losers because they are the Devil, and the Devil is a loser. Guys, Emmitt brought up that you need alcohol to get drunk. This is not true. I’ll be getting drunk on these orange sodas. I already had three, and if I have three more, I’ll be drunk!

Adam Schefter: Kevin, I have breaking news, and I just checked with Terry Fontenot, and after I called him four times, he finally answered and told me that I can report this. I asked him to wear a quadruple mask because I didn’t want to catch Covid through the phone. I probably caught it anyway, Kevin, because I have taken the Covid jab five times. But here’s the breaking news, Kevin. My sources tell me that you are a total wuss because you think you can get drunk off orange soda. Back to you, Kevin!

Reilly: Schefter, you’re an idiot. I happen to know for a fact that you can get drunk off orange soda. I even asked Roger Goodell.

Goodell: I can confirm this, fellow hu-man, and you can submit your hu-man election ballots to me. I will scan them with my hu-man retinas and electronically submit them to the hu-man government facility so the votes can be counted until the desired outcome is achieved.

Reilly: See, I told you that you should vote for Fenterman. We are like two peas in a pod.

Joe Biden: I once peed in a pod. I got excited because I saw a girl with hairy legs. I mean my legs. They were hairy. And the girl saw them. She saw the hairy legs, and I peed in a pod. I was a lifeguard, and she was an old woman at the pool. I mean, I was the old woman at the pool. The old man. I’m the old man. And who’s the woman? She looks like little Sally there, all grown up and her legs crossed with a bowtie in her hair. This was the woman at the pool. She made me excited, and I peed in a pod.

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe is wrong, wrong as usual, always wrong is Sleepy Joe, he didn’t pee in a pod, he definitely did not pee in a pod, believe me no one knows more than me about peeing in a pod, and there’s no way Sleepy Joe peed in a pod, there’s no way Sleepy Joe could pee in a pod, because he’s a total disgrace, and frankly, Sleepy Joe only pees in adult diapers, believe me, no one knows more about peeing in adult diapers more than I do, not even the person who invented adult diapers, at least that’s what I was told, but no one pees more in adult diapers more than Sleepy Joe, not even Old Man Tom Brady, and believe me, Old Man Tom Brady pees a lot in his adult diapers, Old Man Tom Brady always peeing in adult diapers, but not more than Sleepy Joe, who pees more in adult diapers than anyone has ever seen, no one has ever seen anything like it!

Wolfley: PRESIDENT TRUMP, I PEE IN ADULT DIAPERS MORE THAN JOE BIDEN AND TOM BRADY. MY FRIEND IS AN ADULT DIAPER WITH NOSTRILS AND FALSE TEETH, AND HE LIKES WHEN PEOPLE PEE IN HIM.

Reilly: Oh boy, guys, I’m like so drunk right now, I’ve had five orange sodas, weeee!

Jay Cutler: Cough, loser, cough!

Reilly: I assume you’re talking about everyone else and not me, New Daddy! It’s time for me to drink more soda to get even drunker! I’m going to have such a hangover tomorrow, weee!

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you think you’ll be getting drunk off soda, Kevin, which is the lamest thing ever, Kevin, but we’re talking about an adult who plays with bobbleheads and can’t talk to women, Kevin. But let’s give you more soda so you can get allegedly drunker, Kevin. How about a Pepsi, Kevin? What do you think about Sprite, Kevin? Let’s hear your thoughts on Canada Dry, Kevin. Please offer your notes on Sierra Mist, Kevin. Where do you stand on Mountain Dew, Kevin? A penny for your thoughts on Cherry Pepsi, Kevin?

Reilly: Wowwww I’m getting so drunk just hearing about these different sodas. No wonder Mother never let me drink any of them, hic! We’ll be back after this, hic!

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Eagles had their way with the Redskins earlier this year. Jalen Hurts posted incredible numbers, going 22-of-35 for 340 yards and three touchdowns. And yet, he barely did anything in the second half, as the Eagles took their foot off the gas once establishing a 24-0 lead.

The Redskins have the eighth-ranked defensive EPA, yet that didn’t provide much of a challenge for Hurts. That’s because the primary reason for Washington’s high defensive ranking is its pass rush. The Redskins rank eighth in pressure rate despite not blitzing very much. This means a lot against weaker competition, but not the Eagles and their elite offensive line.

With Hurts protected extremely well again, the Eagles will continue to torch the Redskins and their putrid secondary. I don’t see how Washington’s personnel can stop Hurts’ play-makers.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: As I just mentioned, the Eagles were up 24-0 in their first matchup against the Redskins. The zero is just as relevant as the 24, as Philadelphia’s dominant front overwhelmed the Redskins’ abysmal offensive line. And that was without Robert Quinn!

The Eagles are even better in pressure rate than the Redskins, so they’ll continue to put heat on Washington’s quarterback. Taylor Heinicke can elude pressure better than Carson Wentz, but Heinicke also offers less throwing upside. He also buried his team with a horrible interception while up 17-10 in the fourth quarter last week, so that’s something that could continue.

The Redskins won’t have much success running either. Dameon Pierce just trampled the Eagles, but Brian Robinson hasn’t been nearly as impressive as his fellow rookie.

RECAP: The Eagles figure to once again dominate in the trenches on both sides of the ball, so they appear to be the right side. They’ll dominate this game as long as they are motivated.

The motivation, however, is the only question mark. The Eagles are 8-0 and won’t be threatened by the Redskins. They already beat them, so they’ll likely believe that they’ll be able to coast to an easy victory. That might actually be true, but if the Eagles are sloppy with the ball, Washington will have a chance to cover. I’m more inclined to believe the Eagles will try hard because this is a national TV game, but I’m not going to bet this game heavily.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s a lot of public money coming in on the Redskins, which seems crazy to me!

SATURDAY NOTES: The Redskins could be down Andrew Norwell, who missed Saturday’s practice out of nowhere. Cole Holcomb will be out as well. The Eagles remain a two-unit play for me.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Nothing has changed since Saturday evening. The Eagles remain the play at anything under -14.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps haven’t taken a side here, and I don’t blame them. I like the Eagles enough to bet two units on them. The number sucks, but they match up so well against the Redskins. The best line is -11 -105 at Bookmaker and BetUS.