NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 13, 2022

Buffalo Bills (8-3) at New England Patriots (6-5)
Line: Bills by 4. Total: 43.5.
Thursday, Dec. 1, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

Week 12 Analysis: We had a monster weekend (+20.05 units) after a devastating Sunday night loss with the Patriots. I’ll continue to break down all the 3+ unit picks each week:

Patriots, 5 units (loss): Ugh. The Patriots outgained the Vikings in total yards and yards per play, but lost because of two plays on special teams and Hunter Henry’s dropped touchdown.

Bengals, 4 units (win): It didn’t look good for a while, but Joe Burrow had an amazing fourth quarter.

Jets, 4 units (win): It was tilting when Trevor Siemian started over Nathan Peterman, but the Jets still came through for us.

Cardinals, 3 units (win): I’m still confused as to why the Chargers were favored by more than a field goal in Arizona. I would have bet more on the Cardinals if they had D.J. Humphries or Byron Murphy available.

Saints, 3 units (loss): What a disgusting loss. Alvin Kamara lost two fumbles, including one at the 1-yard line! If Kamara scores, the Saints probably cover.

Steelers, 5 units (win): We hit our teaser (with Patriots), too!

Before I begin, I should note that we have some new features, including WalterFootball Premium. We’ve gotten lots of complaints about the ads over the years, but there hasn’t been anything I can do about them because I’ve needed the ad revenue to pay my employees and the hosting. This is an alternative way to view the site. For $7.99 per month, you won’t get any ads. You’ll also have access to a premium chat where I’ll be every day to answer any questions. The chat will be available soon. If you want to support the site, besides telling others about it, signing up for WalterFootball Premium would be a great way to do so!

BUFFALO OFFENSE: I’m not giving you any insightful NFL analysis by stating that Bill Belichick is one of the best coaches in the history of the sport. However, some may not know that Belichick’s terrific defenses have had a flaw over the years. That flaw concerns New England’s inability to defend mobile quarterbacks.

Think back on how mobile quarterbacks have enjoyed success against Belichick. Even Justin Fields won in a blowout victory several Mondays ago. Josh Allen’s main trait isn’t his mobility, but he can obviously pick up huge chunks of yardage on the ground at a time. Allen has rushed for at least 32 yards in all but two games this year. The two exceptions were Week 2 against the Titans, which was a blowout victory, and Week 11 against the Browns when he was playing hurt. Allen was back to his mobile ways against the Lions on Thanksgiving.

Allen may not have been completely healthy on Thanksgiving, but having a whole week of practice for the first time in three weeks should help him. He torched the Patriots in the second and third matchups last year, and I don’t see why this would be any different.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Mac Jones did well to move the ball against the Vikings on Thanksgiving. He has looked like a different quarterback than the one who struggled mightily several weeks ago, particularly in that aforementioned blowout loss to the Bears.

However, Jones will be facing Buffalo’s fierce pass rush in this contest, so he could revert back to his previous state. The Patriots have some issues with their offensive line, so Jones will definitely see pressure. This is not good news. While under pressure this year, Jones is completing 45 percent of his passes with one touchdown and five interceptions.

The one way where the Patriots can maintain some semblance of offense is by establishing Rhamondre Stevenson. The Bills aren’t that strong against the run, so Stevenson could do well as both a rusher and a receiver out of the backfield.

RECAP: This spread fell short of my expectations. I made this line Buffalo -7, yet it’s only -5. We’re getting two points of value, which includes the key numbers of six and seven.

I love the matchup the Bills have on both sides of the ball. Allen will create huge problems for Belichick’s defense, while the pass rush will bother Jones. Under normal circumstances, I’d be surprised if Buffalo didn’t win easily, so this was going to be a considerable wager.

Unfortunately, there was some bad news affecting the Bills. The flu is making its way through their locker room, and we know how that can impact a team based on the Saints’ shutout loss to the Saints a few weeks ago. Given this situation, I can’t bet on Buffalo. In fact, I’m going to be on New England.

Our Week 13 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: A couple of problems for the Bills: First, they’ll be missing Dion Dawkins and Ambassador Von Miller. Second, they’re being wrecked by the flu right now. There are five people tagged with illnesses on the injury report. I like the Patriots, but worry about New England’s ability to defend Josh Allen’s mobility.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I would like the Bills if they weren’t dealing with the flu. This might be overblown on my part, but I’m still scarred by that Raiders-Saints game. The best line for the Bills is -3.5 at Bookmaker and BetMGM, but you can get New England +4 at BetUS and Bovada. The sharps are on the Patriots.

New York Jets (7-4) at Minnesota Vikings (9-2)
Line: Vikings by 3. Total: 44.
Sunday, Dec. 4, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Jets actually have a real offense worth discussing for the first time since the Breece Hall injury. Mike White took over for Zach Wilson last week and was brilliant. Wilson had been a turnover machine, especially when under pressure, while White ripped through Chicago’s defense with ease despite playing in a downpour.

Granted, Chicago’s defense is a joke, so White will face a tougher test in this game. I think he’ll succeed, as Minnesota’s aerial defense isn’t some juggernaut that will give him problems. The Vikings are just 22nd in adjusted pass defense EPA because they don’t get to the quarterback very often. They have the 12th-worst pressure rate in the NFL, so White should enjoy a clean pocket for most of the afternoon. If Mac Jones could thrive versus Minnesota, White should be able to do so as well.

The Vikings are much better against the run than the pass, so I wouldn’t expect anything from Michael Carter or this Zonovan Knight guy. There’s a chance one of them has a decent game as a receiver out of the backfield, but that’s about it.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: I mentioned how bad Wilson was when dealing with pressure. Kirk Cousins is even worse when dealing with pressure in the pocket. Going into Thanksgiving, Cousins had completed just 42 percent of his passes when harassed, whereas Wilson’s completion percentage was 45. We saw Cousins self-destruct in some high-pressure games, such as the blowout losses to the Eagles and Cowboys.

I was expecting the Patriots to rattle Cousins, but that didn’t happen. Despite Christian Darrisaw’s absence, Minnesota’s offensive line held up surprisingly well. Despite this, I’m not counting on that happening again. The Jets have the No. 5 pressure rate in the NFL, which is remarkable because they blitz less often than any other team in the NFL with the exception of the Falcons.

The Jets also do a great job of clamping down against the run, so don’t expect anything from Dalvin Cook on the ground. However, Cook, as well as T.J. Hockenson, could have success targeting the Jets’ linebacking corps, which is the weakness of the defense.

RECAP: The Vikings continue to be the most overrated team in the NFL. They’ve been so incredibly lucky this year. I can go through their cupcake schedule and point out all the times they easily could have lost. They were down 10 to the Lions in the fourth quarter, and only came back because Amon-Ra St. Brown and D’Andre Swift got hurt. They needed a missed field goal to beat an Alvin Kamara-less Saints team. They were outgained by 224 net yards against Miami’s third-string quarterback. The Redskins were up seven in the middle of the fourth quarter when Taylor Heinicke gave away the game with a horrible floater interception. And just this past Thursday, the Vikings were outgained by the Patriots in terms of total yards and yards per play, yet prevailed because the Patriots screwed up twice on special teams.

The Vikings could easily be 6-5 right now, and if they were, they would not be field goal favorites over the Jets, who are now a better team with a major upgrade at quarterback. Having White under center makes the Jets a legitimate deep playoff threat.

I think this spread is incorrect. Even when giving the Vikings a bonus for their extra rest, I believe this line should be pick ’em. Yet, we’re getting a win and a push on both threes, which is a huge deal. I’m going to bet New York accordingly.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Christian Darrisaw continued to miss practice time with his concussion. Not having him available will be a huge blow against the Jets’ great pass rush.

SATURDAY NOTES: Christian Darrisaw is out. Some sharp action is coming in on the Jets, so I’m going to lock in the +3 -110 available at BetUS/BetMGM before that’s gone.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As mentioned Saturday, the sharps are on the Jets, so I locked in the +3 on Saturday morning. You can still get +3 -115 at Bovada.

Denver Broncos (3-8) at Baltimore Ravens (7-4)
Line: Ravens by 9.5. Total: 40.5.
Sunday, Dec. 4, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Ravens.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides are now 18-18-1 this year.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Seahawks -3.5

Chargers -3.5

Dolphins -12

Buccaneers -3.5

A rough day for the public, which would have been a disaster had the Dolphins not covered at the end.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Dolphins +3.5

Browns -7

Titans +6

Seahawks -5

I can’t say I’m shocked that the Dolphins are getting all of this money.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Ravens can’t stop shooting themselves in the foot. It’s rather ridiculous. Two weeks ago, Baltimore had seven trips inside Carolina territory, excluding its one touchdown drive. They scored six total points on those seven possessions, thanks to penalties, drops, and bad sacks. The same occurred last week versus Jacksonville, with some lost fumbles added to the mix.

It remains to be seen if the Ravens will finally get their act together. It’ll help that they’ll be facing a Denver defense that has been weakened a bit by the departure of Bradley Chubb. The Broncos don’t apply the same pressure they used to, as they are now out of the top 10 in pressure rate. They also struggle to defend tight ends, so that should obviously benefit Mark Andrews, who will look to redeem himself after dropping a touchdown last week.

The Broncos are especially weak to the run. The Ravens should be able to establish the rush, whether it’s with Gus Edwards or Lamar Jackson’s scrambles.

DENVER OFFENSE: It’s difficult to imagine Denver’s offense accomplishing anything. The Broncos scored just 16 points against the Raiders, for crying out loud. How can they possibly produce anything against a Baltimore defense that had been greatly improved heading into Week 12?

Russell Wilson has been abysmal this year, but it’s not completely his fault. The Broncos can’t block whatsoever, thanks to numerous injuries to the offensive line. Baltimore’s yearlong pressure rate isn’t great, but the pass rush has improved in recent weeks, thanks to some players returning from injury.

The Broncos would love to run, but they can’t bet on that happening. The Ravens are third versus the rush, and it’s not like Latavius Murray and his blocking are great enough to overcome this lopsided matchup.

RECAP: When the Ravens lost to the Jaguars, I was hoping we’d get some nice line value with Baltimore. The advance line was Ravens -6.5, so I was eager to see a -6 or even a -5.5.

And then I remembered that the Broncos were playing on the other side, and that they had just been blown out by the lowly Panthers. This has prompted the sportsbooks to move this spread up to -8, and to be frank, I’m not sure if enough of an adjustment was made. The Broncos are not a functional football team right now because they can’t block whatsoever. Their defense is very good, but not as great as it was in the first half of the year because of the Chubb departure.

I’m going to be on the Ravens, but this is a tough number to lay, considering how sloppy Baltimore has been in recent weeks. I think the Ravens will eventually snap out of it, but it may not happen this week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I just noticed that three Ravens are tagged with an illness designation on the injury report. Baltimore will be a fade if the flu is going through its locker room as well.

SATURDAY NOTES: This line rose to -9.5 in the wake of Courtland Sutton’s questionable designation on Friday. Sutton missed practice with an illness, so it’s unclear if he’ll be ready to go. As for the Baltimore illness I mentioned on Thursday, every player who was tagged with an illness returned to a full practice on Friday. They could still be sick, so I’m not betting this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Jerry Jeudy is back, so with Baltimore struggling against deep passes, I’m tempted to make a late switch to the Broncos. I’m sticking with the Ravens, but I’m not betting this game. The sharps are on Denver.

Pittsburgh Steelers (4-7) at Atlanta Falcons (5-7)
Line: Steelers by 1. Total: 42.5.
Sunday, Dec. 4, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Steelers.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. I got some from some clown named Matt Gregory this week. Here, he thinks I’d be a great weatherman:



Honestly, I have no interest in being a weatherman. I’ve hated the profession ever since Eric Matthews got robbed of his weatherman job.

Here’s another compliment from Matt Gregory:



How can I possibly compete with a trained monkey? It’s trained!!!

This is from Matt Gregory following the Bills-Lions game:



Imagine wasting your time talking trying to harass someone about something they don’t give two f**ks about. Sad.

Anyway, we had this one that wasn’t from Matt Gregory:



I know I joke around being a doctor sometimes, but I actually am a PoC, and my being so usually shuts up virtue-signaling douche bags. Ah, the power of manufactured victimhood!

ATLANTA OFFENSE: I’ve talked about how important T.J. Watt is to Pittsburgh so many times that it feels like my fingers are beginning to bleed. The Steelers have a top-six pass defense when Watt is on the field, yet were 30th in that regard without him this year. That’s how great of a player Watt happens to be.

Marcus Mariota will see plenty of pressure in the pocket when asked to throw. Mariota can neutralize some of it with his rushing ability, but he’s still completing just 48.7 percent of his passes while under pressure, so it’s not like Mariota will have great success against Pittsburgh.

The Falcons, of course, will attempt to run the ball with Cordarrelle Patterson and Tyler Allgeier in addition to Mariota. This won’t work very well because the Steelers rank fourth in adjusted rush defense EPA.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Kenny Pickett has been improving each week. He had a rough second half against the Bengals, but rebounded with a strong performance against the Colts. Pickett had one bad throw when he missed an open George Pickens in the end zone, but was otherwise sharp against a strong Indianapolis defense.

Pickett should be even better in this matchup. No team produces less pressure on the quarterback than the Falcons. Atlanta, consequently, has not been able to cover anyone this year. Pickens, Diontae Johnson and Pat Freiermuth should feast on Atlanta’s back seven.

The Falcons are better against the run than the pass, but only by default. They’re 27th in rush defense EPA, so the Steelers will have success pounding the ball once they establish a lead.

RECAP: I’ve been betting the Steelers heavily recently, and it’s worked out extremely well for the most part. The only loss Pittsburgh has suffered lately was a defeat to the vastly superior Bengals, which was a four-point game with five minutes remaining. Otherwise, the Steelers have pulled off upsets against the Saints and Colts.

It should not be a surprise that I’m betting Pittsburgh heavily again. The Steelers should be favored because they’re the better team. They have an elite pass rush and aerial defense now that Watt is back on the field. Their quarterback is getting better all the time. And Pittsburgh has endured the toughest schedule in the NFL thus far. Just look at whom they battled prior to the Saints game: Bengals, Patriots, Browns, Jets, Bills, Buccaneers, Dolphins, and Eagles. That is ridiculous, and Atlanta is worse than all of those teams.

With that in mind, the wrong team is favored (at the open), even when taking Pittsburgh’s shorter rest into account. I made this line Steelers -3, so we’re getting tremendous value with them if I am correct. This is going to be one of my top wagers of the week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s a ton of sharp money coming in on the Steelers, which is great to see because they’re my top play this week.

SATURDAY NOTES: Uh oh. T.J. Watt is questionable with a rib injury. He was limited in practice all week. Watt didn’t quite look like himself Monday night. This is a major bummer because I loved the Steelers. I’m not going to bet this game heavily, or even at all, if Watt is ruled out.

FINAL THOUGHTS: T.J. Watt is in, which is obviously great news. The only problem is that we don’t know if he’s 100 percent, but I love Pittsburgh. The best line is -1 -110 at BetUS. The sharps are on Pittsburgh.

Tennessee Titans (7-4) at Philadelphia Eagles (10-1)
Line: Eagles by 4.5. Total: 44.5.
Sunday, Dec. 4, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

Contest Announcement time!

Our weekly fantasy football contest has returned. It’s like DFS, but weekly and free, and there are cash prizes! There’s no reason not to enter, and you can submit up to five lineups per week! Click the link here for our new Weekly Fantasy Football Contest!

Also, our Survivor Contest has returned as well. It’s free to enter, and you can win $350!

If you’re looking for the best DFS content on the Web, sign up for Stokastic for the greatest projections and ownership data. Sign up with this link or use promo code WALTERFOOTBALL for 25% off!

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: It seemed as though the Eagles improved their run defense heading into the Green Bay game because they were able to limit Jonathan Taylor fairly well in their victory over Indianapolis. That turned out to be a red herring because Green Bay dominated on the ground. A.J. Dillon was so unstoppable that he was the winning captain in the DraftKings showdown slate.

Jordan Davis won’t be back yet, so how will the Eagles tackle Derrick Henry? Even if they stack the box, it seems likely that Henry will be able to bulldoze forward for significant yardage. Tackling Dillon was a huge issue, so bringing down Henry will be a huge problem.

If the Eagles end up stacking the box, Ryan Tannehill will enjoy some nice passing opportunities. The Eagles suddenly have two injured players in their secondary – C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Avonte Maddox – so there will be some areas Tannehill will be able to exploit, especially if Philadelphia isn’t paying attention to him.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Titans have been tremendous defensively since getting smoked by the Bills in Week 2. However, that was the last time they battled a quarterback who will look to run very frequently. Mike Vrabel learned under Bill Belichick during his playing days, and Belichick’s defenses tend to struggle against mobile quarterbacks. Could Vrabel’s defense have the same flaw?

Jalen Hurts’ mobility will be clutch in this matchup because the Titans generate a heavy pass rush without blitzing very often. In fact, only the Jets and Falcons blitz less frequently than Tennessee. Luckily for Hurts, he’s well shielded behind an elite offensive line.

Hurts, of course, will be looking to get the ball to A.J. Brown, who will want revenge against his former team. There’s good reason to expect Brown to thrive, and it’s not because of that narrative. Brown just saw Tee Higgins torch Tennessee’s secondary, so there’s good reason to expect a similar outcome from him.

RECAP: This line opened +6.5 and it was quickly bet down to +5.5, or even +5 in some places. The sharps are all over the Titans, and it’s easy to understand why.

This is a great spot for the Titans. First of all, they’re tremendous as underdogs – Mike Vrabel is 21-7 against the spread getting three or more points – and they match up well against the Eagles with their power running game. Second, I’m not sure if we’ll get Philadelphia’s best effort. The Eagles are coming off a big win on national TV, and they have to battle the Giants after this non-conference affair. I think the Titans are better than the Giants, but Philadelphia and New York have a huge rivalry, so it’s no surprise that the Eagles are 6-15 against the spread prior to battling the Giants since 2010.

I also think this spread is still a bit inflated. I liked the value a lot more at +6.5, obviously, but I made this line +4.5, and I think there could be an argument for +4. With that in mind, I’ll be betting a few units on Tennessee.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s a chance Jordan Davis will return this week, though he may not play his usual number of snaps. I’m going to drop the unit count to two.

SATURDAY NOTES: We still don’t know if Jordan Davis will play, and we also don’t know if Jeffery Simmons will be able to take the field after he was listed as questionable. Simmons was DNP-DNP-limited in practice this week. With Denico Autry out, the Titans would be short-handed on the defensive line if Simmons were to miss this game. I still would like Mike Vrabel and the points, however.

SATURDAY NOTES II: Both the Circa and Westgate have dropped this line to +4, so I suspect most other sportsbooks will follow suit. I’m going to lock in the +4.5 -106 at FanDuel.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Jordan Davis is active, yet so is Jeffery Simmons. The sharps bet the Titans at every number above +4. The best line is still +4.5 -106 at FanDuel.

Jacksonville Jaguars (4-8) at Detroit Lions (4-7)
Line: Lions by 1. Total: 51.5.
Sunday, Dec. 4, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Props page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Trevor Lawrence’s second season has largely been underwhelming. He’s had some bright moments, but they’ve been overshadowed by his failures in crucial spots. Given his struggles at times, I expected the Ravens to prevail last week, but Lawrence came through in the clutch with a great drive at the very end to beat Baltimore.

There’s a chance Lawrence will regress, but he could also parlay that decisive possession into a big performance against the Lions. Detroit has improved defensively in recent weeks, but it still tends to struggle against the pass. Lawrence has the talent to exploit these flaws, but it remains to be seen if he’ll actually do it.

Many will expect Travis Etienne to enjoy great success as well. Etienne barely played last week, but seems fine to take the field this Sunday. However, Detroit’s defense has improved tremendously, as it has been able to clamp down on the likes of Saquon Barkley and Aaron Jones.

DETROIT OFFENSE: If you were to ask most fans which team has the worst defense in this matchup, I imagine most would say the Lions because of some of their miserable early-season performances. However, the Jaguars are way worse. While Detroit is 19th in adjusted EPA defense, Jacksonville is 31st. Only the Bears are worse.

The Jaguars have some major problems in their secondary, which is why they rank 31st against the pass. This does not bode well for them in this matchup against Amon-Ra St. Brown and D.J. Chark. There’s a chance Jameson Williams will play as well, but Detroit can’t count on that.

Jacksonville is better versus the run than the pass, so perhaps the Lions will blow another lead like they did versus Miami. I still think Detroit will have some success with Jamaal Williams and D’Andre Swift. Perhaps Swift will see more action after the team’s mini-bye.

RECAP: It took quite some time, but people have caught on to the Lions. Jacob Camenker and I were constantly yelled at for picking the Lions each week, but they’ve finally been recognized as a solid team. They nearly defeated the Bills on Thanksgiving after they had prevailed in three consecutive games.

We didn’t bet on the Lions on Thanksgiving because of the bad matchup, but I’m willing to jump back on the train. I consider the Lions considerably better than the Jaguars, if only because of their defense. Detroit’s stop unit has improved ever since it got players back from injury and some young players have improved. Conversely, Jacksonville has the 31st-ranked defense according to adjusted EPA.

With the extra rest factored in, the Lions are -4 according to my numbers. If my spread is correct, we’re getting incredible line value with Detroit, as we’re going across the key number of three. I’m going to bet this game accordingly, though some recent sharp action gives me some pause. A ton of pro money came in on the Jaguars on Tuesday afternoon, so I’m not sure if there’s an injury we don’t know about yet.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I wondered why there was so much sharp money coming in on the Jaguars. I thought there was a chance the pros knew about some sort of injury. Well, Penei Sewell missed Wednesday’s practice with an ankle injury. Guard Evan Brown was also out of practice. If the Lions are down multiple offensive linemen, I won’t be betting Detroit heavily, so hopefully we get better news later in the week.

SATURDAY NOTES: I was worried about Penei Sewell and Evan Brown in my Thursday update. Brown is out, but Sewell doesn’t even have an injury designation. Jonah Jackson will be returning, so he can easily take Brown’s spot in the lineup. Jeff Okudah will play as well. I now no longer have any concerns about the Lions, so this will be a big wager.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Jaguars won’t have Andre Cisco, who has been one of the few positive players in their secondary this year. His absence will hurt versus a Detroit offense that will welcome Jameson Williams for the first time. The sharp action from earlier in the week has evened out, so there’s no concern there either. The best line is -1 -110 at Bookmaker and Bovada.

Washington Redskins (7-5) at New York Giants (7-4)
Line: Redskins by 2.5. Total: 40.5.
Sunday, Dec. 4, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Redskins.

If you’d like to support this site outside of buying my books or referring people to it, you can check out the WalterFootball Merch Store as well! I can design shirts rather easily, so if you have any new ideas, let me know in the comments below. In addition to WalterFootball t-shirts, you can also buy AMC and GameStop stock gear as well!

NEW YORK OFFENSE: It’ll be interesting to see what the Giants’ practice report looks like because they had severe offensive line issues against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. They were missing three starting blockers, as well as a key backup. This didn’t pan out well against Dallas’ No. 1 pass rush.

The Giants have another rough matchup in the trenches this week, as the Redskins are ranked third in pressure rate, a figure that could be enhanced by Chase Young’s potential return. Washington will swarm Daniel Jones, who could be forced into some more turnovers, especially when considering that he has a diminished receiving corps at his disposal.

Jones would love to hand the ball off to Saquon Barkley for some relief, but doing so will not have great benefits. The Redskins are tremendous at stuffing the run, also ranking in the top 10 in that regard. Barkley could have a nice day as a receiver out of the backfield, but that’s New York’s best chance of moving the ball.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: No team in the NFL blitzes more than the Giants. They blitz nearly 40 percent of the time, so it’s important to analyze how good the opposing quarterback is when handling extra pass rushers.

Taylor Heinicke has been guilty of some ugly floaters that are begging to be intercepted in recent weeks, but most of them have come when he’s under pressure and not blitzed. When blitzed, Heinicke is quite excellent. He’s 27-of-40 for 286 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. He has a big-time throw percentage of 4.8 (compared to 0.7% when not blitzed), and he’s had zero turnover-worthy plays.

This obviously bodes poorly for the Giants, who have some issues in their secondary. Heinicke will expose those. Meanwhile, the two Washington backs will have decent success against a rush defense ranked in the middle of the pack.

RECAP: I talked about how people are finally seeing the light with the Lions in the previous game capsule. The opposite is true of the Giants. I’ve been writing about how misleading the Giants’ record is for several weeks. They had numerous flimsy wins. They’re known best for upsetting the Packers in London, but we now understand how bad Green Bay is. The Giants were also outplayed by the Panthers and Jaguars in victories against those teams. The Giants are 7-4 right now, but they realistically could be 4-7.

If the Giants had a 4-7 record, the Redskins would be -3.5 at the very least. Thus, I believe we’re getting good value with Washington, which legitimately is a quality team because of its dominant defense. The public is catching on to the Giants, but there’s still some belief that New York is a good team. As I always say, team records are the siren song of the uninformed ESPN viewer. Don’t be an uninformed ESPN viewer.

The Redskins’ pass rush should control this game against the Giants’ poor offensive line, so I really like their chances of winning this game and covering this spread. I’ll be betting a few units on them. The exact amount will depend on the status of the Giants’ blocking unit.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It looks like the Redskins will be getting back Evan Neal this week because he was full in Wednesday’s practice. That removes an edge for Washington’s pass rush. I still like the Redskins, but a little less so.

SATURDAY NOTES: Evan Neal doesn’t have an injury designation, while Jon Feliciano, who also missed Week 12, looks like he’ll play as well. I still like the Redskins, but have less interest in them.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Giants are getting back two of their offensive linemen, and Chase Young won’t play, so I’m off this game. The sharps bet the Redskins earlier in the week, but they stopped doing so at -2.5.

Cleveland Browns (4-7) at Houston Texans (1-9-1)
Line: Browns by 7.5. Total: 46.5.
Sunday, Dec. 4, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Let’s talk about the big quarterback news in this game. Kyle Allen versus Davis Mills. Who do you have after that dreadful performance from Allen? Just kidding! Deshaun Watson will be making his return to the field for the first time since 2020. Obviously, Watson is a supremely talented quarterback, or at least he was. It’s unclear how he’ll play after accumulating so much rust. He looked terrible during the preseason, but that could easily be a misleading result.

Watson may be matched up against a Houston defense that could be down its top cornerback again, as Derek Stingley has missed some action lately. If so, Watson shouldn’t have any sort of problem connecting with Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones, assuming that he’s not completely out of sorts.

Luckily for Watson, he can just hand the ball off to Nick Chubb and expect great results. The Texans have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, so Chubb could have an explosive performance.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: OK, now back to the huge question: Allen or Mills? Mills played like crap against the Redskins two weeks ago, yet Allen was even worse versus the Dolphins. There may not be a correct solution.

That said, the starting quarterback may not be as much of a liability in this game because the Browns are mediocre versus the pass and apply an average amount of pressure on the quarterback. Mills and Allen are coming off two matchups in which they had to deal with severe pressure. This is a step down in competition.

Houston’s previous two matchups were especially bad because it couldn’t run the ball. Dameon Pierce battled two fierce run defenses, but he won’t have as much of a challenge this week. That’s because the Browns are dead last against the rush. I expect Pierce to have snap out of his slump as a result.

RECAP: I like to play NFL player psychologist sometimes, particularly when trying to gauge if a team will be focused or relaxed for a certain game. This situation, however, is a complete wild card. How will the Browns react to Watson returning from his suspension? How will Watson perform in his first game back, especially in his old stomping grounds? And will the Texans put forth some effort after mailing it in the past two weeks?

Of the questions I asked, I’m most confident in my answer to the last one. This has to be Houston’s Super Bowl. Watson quit on the Texans and put them in this situation. I have to believe that they’ll do everything in their power to make him suffer.

The only question is whether the Texans have the talent to do it. Against most teams, I’d say no, but Cleveland’s horrible run defense will give Pierce some opportunities that he did not enjoy versus the Redskins and Dolphins the past two weeks. We’ve seen the Texans be competitive when they can get Pierce going.

With that in mind, I want to bet the Texans heavily, but I don’t think I can pull the trigger. I have no answers to the other questions I asked, and I don’t trust Houston at all. For all I know, the Texans could put forth another lackadaisical performance and lose by double digits again. Jacob Camenker called the Texans the “Toxins,” which was a perfect moniker for this stupid team. I don’t have an overwhelming desire to heavily bet a team that is so toxic.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Man, I’m so tempted to bet the Texans heavily. This is their Super Bowl, and Deshaun Watson is likely to be rusty in his return. We’re also getting good line value per the advance spread, which was Cleveland -5.5. It has risen because the Browns beat the overrated Buccaneers and the Texans looked terrible against the terrific Dolphins. This is a much easier matchup for the Texans because they’ll actually be able to run the ball against a weak run defense.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Texans ruled out Brandin Cooks, but that could really end up being addition by subtraction because he has been guilty of a glaring lack of effort. Remember, the Texans battled the Eagles fiercely without Cooks in a Thursday night affair several weeks ago. I still can’t believe the Browns are favored by this many points.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I was thrown off by some sharp money coming in on Cleveland on Saturday morning because there was other pro money coming in on Houston earlier in the week. Perhaps this was a reaction to the Brandin Cooks news, but Cooks has been a low-effort player. The best line is +7.5 -106 at FanDuel.

Green Bay Packers (4-8) at Chicago Bears (3-9)
Line: Packers by 4. Total: 45.
Sunday, Dec. 4, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Bears.

Video of the Week: I’m all for a great love story, and I’ve enjoyed seeing the AOC-Elon Musk saga unfold. Elon once told AOC to not flirt with him because he’s shy, but it’s so heart-warming to see that their relationship has blossomed:



This video makes me realize that if these two could get together, anything is possible.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: We have no idea who is going to start at quarterback for either team. Justin Fields is a complete question mark right now. Will he play? Will he be healthy if he plays? All of that is unknown, so I’m looking forward to seeing the practice report.

Green Bay’s defense will be praying that Fields doesn’t play because they have to be exhausted after chasing Jalen Hurts all over the field on Sunday night. Hurts compiled 100 rushing yards in the first quarter alone, as Green Bay’s De’Vondre Campbell-less defense looked bewildered to sotp him. If Fields can run, he’ll blaze past the Packer defenders.

The Packers will obviously be much better off if Trevor Siemian starts. Siemian had some nice throws to start the game against the Jets last week. This changed when Darnell Mooney was lost with a season-ending injury. Siemian will be in a rough spot behind his offensive line, though David Montgomery will provide some support against a leaky run defense.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Aaron Rodgers’ status is also up in the air. Rodgers looked like he was in severe pain whenever he threw a pass in the third quarter against the Eagles. It seemed like a certainty that he would be sidelined for this game, but Rodgers revealed that he received good news after being scanned.

Still, the Packers may deem Rodgers too injured to play. Unlike the Bears, the Packers have a viable quarterback in “No Cookie” Jordan Love, who looked sharp in relief of Rodgers on Sunday night.

Whether it’s Rodgers or Love, the Packers will have success beating a horrible Chicago defense that can’t stop anything. The Bears’ last-ranked defense is woeful at containing both the run and the pass, so I expect big games from Aaron Jones, Christian Watson, and Allen Lazard.

RECAP: There are three scenarios regarding Fields. The first is that he misses this game, forcing Siemian into action again. The second is that Fields plays hurt. If Fields is active after being limited in practice all week, I want nothing to do with the Bears. The third is Fields is completely healthy after being full in practice all week. It’s currently unclear which scenario we’ll see, but the practice reports will give us the information we need.

Here’s how I plan on handling this game:

If Fields is ruled out, I will bet several units on the Packers as a pure fade of a bad quarterback playing on a terrible team.

If Fields is limited in practice and ruled in, I will bet slightly less on Green Bay because Fields could be a liability if he’s not completely healthy.

If Fields is full in practice, I will be on Chicago for a couple of units because of the discounted price.

Check back later in the week, or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Justin Fields practiced Wednesday, albeit on a limited basis. It’s too early to say if he’ll play, and whether or not he’ll be 100 percent if he does.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m doing a complete 180 on this game. I’m now planning to bet the Bears. Justin Fields was full in practice on Thursday and Friday, so he should be good to go against a defense that had no answer for Jalen Hurts’ running Sunday night. Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers was DNP-limited-limited in practice, so he’s not healthy, and what’s worse is that David Bakhtiari has been ruled out. Depending on De’Vondre Campbell’s status, this will be a three- or four-unit wager on Chicago.

FINAL THOUGHTS: De’Vondre Campbell is back, which might explain there was some sharp money coming in on the Packers on Saturday evening. There was earlier sharp money on the Bears, so the pros are split on this one. I still like the Bears for a medium-sized bet. The best line is +3.5 -108 at FanDuel.