NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 17, 2022

Dallas Cowboys (11-4) at Tennessee Titans (7-8)
Line: Cowboys by 12. Total: 39.5.
Thursday, Dec. 29, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Cowboys.

Week 16 Analysis: We had another winning week, but we would have been up nearly 20 units had Miles Sanders not fumbled at the end of the Eagles-Cowboys game. I’ll continue to break down all the 3+ unit picks each week:

Giants, 3 units (win): The Vikings fail to cover again. What a great final offensive drive by Daniel Jones to get the cover!

Patriots, 3 units (loss): The Patriots could have pushed if they hit the extra point following the Hail Mary. I laughed when that missed. Despite the bad luck there, I will say that this was definitely the wrong side. The Bengals dominated the Patriots until they took their foot off the gas.

Chiefs, 4 units (win): It felt like we were going to get back doored for a while. Why can’t the Chiefs put a full game together?

Eagles, 8 units (loss): F**k you, Miles Sanders. The fumble cost me a 5-0 in the Supercontest.

Steelers, 4 units (win): What a great finish to an otherwise frustrating game.

Packers, 4 units (win): This looked like a loss before Tua Tagovailoa’s meltdown in the fourth quarter.

Before I begin, I should note that we have some new features, including WalterFootball Premium. We’ve gotten lots of complaints about the ads over the years, but there hasn’t been anything I can do about them because I’ve needed the ad revenue to pay my employees and the hosting. This is an alternative way to view the site. For $7.99 per month, you won’t get any ads. You’ll also have access to a premium chat where I’ll be every day to answer any questions. The chat will be available soon. If you want to support the site, besides telling others about it, signing up for WalterFootball Premium would be a great way to do so!

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Ryan Tannehill’s absence was felt last week, as Malik Willis struggled in his place. Excluding an early, long touchdown run by Derrick Henry, the Titans scored just seven points against the Texans. Willis couldn’t even reach 100 passing yards despite throwing the ball 23 times.

A huge problem for Willis was his poor pass protection. The Titans were down their top three offensive linemen, as Nate Davis and Ben Jones joined Taylor Lewan on the injury report. Willis was constantly under siege as a result. Things won’t get better for Willis because Davis and Jones were placed on injured reserve, so they’re not coming back. This obviously bodes very poorly for Willis, who will have to battle Micah Parsons and the rest of the defensive front with no pass protection.

Under normal circumstances, Willis could hand the ball off to Henry and expect a dominant performance. However, Henry’s potential is ruined by the injuries to Davis and Jones.

DALLAS OFFENSE: If the Titans somehow pull the upset, it’ll have to occur on this side of the ball. Tennessee has some talented defensive stars, and they’ve recently welcomed back some injured players like Denico Autry and Zach Cunningham. Their defense was shredded in some games a few weeks ago, but this is a different stop unit now.

The way to slow down Dak Prescott is to make him feel uncomfortable. That can be via pressuring him or taking away the running game. Tennessee can certainly do the latter with its top-10 rush defense. Tony Pollard can always break a long gain on any snap, but most of his touches will be limited, while Ezekiel Elliott will likely have even less success.

The Titans also can get to the quarterback consistently now that they’ve gotten Autry back on the defensive line. The Cowboys are missing their right tackle, so there’s an opportunity for Tennessee to generate pressure on Prescott and perhaps force a turnover or two.

RECAP: Because the Cowboys won last week, they’re very much in contention for the NFC East crown and the No. 1 seed. This would require the Eagles losing to both the Giants and Saints, but that could happen if Jalen Hurts is out or injured. I bring up motivation because the Titans don’t really have any. The AFC South comes down to next week’s battle against the Jaguars. Nothing else matters, as the Titans cannot claim a wild-card spot.

With that in mind, there’s a chance the Titans rest some of their players. They may not sit everyone, but they could allow some of their banged-up players to take a break in anticipation of next week’s AFC South title game.

Given that the Titans don’t gain anything from winning this contest, it’s impossible to pick them, even if their defense has the personnel to slow down the Cowboys a bit. I’ll be on Dallas for a small or medium wager as a result.

Our Week 17 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It seems as though the Titans are going to mail in this one. They’re going to be sitting Derrick Henry (listed as doubtful), Ryan Tannehill, Jeffery Simmons, Nick Petit-Frere, Denico Autry, Zach Cunningham, Bud Dupree, Kristian Fulton, Amani Hooker and some other role players. This spread has been rising slowly, and I think it’s going to hit -14 by kickoff, so I’m going to lock in the Cowboys for two units now at -12.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Tony Pollard is out, but so is Derrick Henry. The Titans are sitting most of their primary starters, so the Cowboys are the play. This line has risen to -14 in most sportsbooks, but it’s still -13.5 at Bookmaker. The sharps haven’t taken a side.

Carolina Panthers (6-9) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-8)
Line: Buccaneers by 3.5. Total: 40.5.
Sunday, Jan. 1, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: What an embarrassing performance. The Buccaneers were absolutely dreadful on Christmas night, failing to score more than three points against the Cardinals until late in the fourth quarter. Arizona had been shredded by Brett Rypien the prior week, so it was ridiculous that Tampa Bay couldn’t enjoy more offensive success.

The Buccaneers will have their hands full versus the Panthers. Carolina has the personnel to generate pressure on the quarterback, which doesn’t bode well for the Buccaneers, given their severe offensive line woes. Tom Brady has struggled this year because of poor pass protection, and that will continue in this contest, despite the injury to Panthers cornerback Jaycee Horn. Mike Evans will have easier coverage, but that won’t matter if Brady doesn’t have the time to deliver passes to him.

The Panthers are at their weakest on this side of the ball when it comes to stopping the run. Leonard Fournette and Rachaad White could possibly take advantage of this if they had adequate blocking, but the Buccaneers have struggled to run the ball consistently this year for a reason.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: The Panthers have not struggled to run the ball whatsoever, despite trading Christian McCaffrey back in October. This was very apparent last week when they trampled Detroit’s defense. They seemingly ripped off 20-yard gains on every other play, as D’Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard both exceeded the century mark.

The Buccaneers are in the middle of the pack when it comes to stopping the run, so Foreman and Hubbard should continue to have success. This is crucial for Sam Darnold, who needs all the help he can get.

If Darnold has to throw in unfavorable down-and-distance situations, he could be in trouble. The Buccaneers have a healthy secondary now, and they just erased DeAndre Hopkins and Marquise Brown for the most part. They should have no issues smothering D.J. Moore and Terrace Marshall Jr.

RECAP: It’s amazing how much of an overreaction there was to this game. The advance spread for this matchup was Tampa Bay -7. The line has fallen through three key numbers to land on -3!

Then again, you could argue that the spread should have been -3 in the first place. Or, here’s a crazy idea: This line is still too high! Before seeing this spread, I made this line pick ’em. I believe this is a true coin flip game, so could the perceived value from the line move be a mirage?

In an attempt to answer my own question to make myself seem smart, I’m not completely sure. I love taking line values, but it’s also true that the Buccaneers are terrible. They easily could have lost to the Saints and Cardinals in two of the past three weeks. Had they done so, and their record was 5-10 instead of 7-8, the Panthers might even be favored.

At any rate, I had major interest in betting the Panthers at +7. I don’t feel that way about this new number. I’ll side with the Panthers for office pool purposes, but I’m not putting any money on them.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Ryan Jensen has been designated for return from injured reserve. It’s unclear if he’ll play this week, but he has a chance, as does left tackle Donovan Smith. These are two huge developments that could allow the Buccaneers to win and cover this short spread.

SATURDAY NOTES: Ryan Jensen won’t be back this week, but it sounds like Donovan Smith has a good chance to play. With Jaycee Horn out, the Buccaneers have moved to -4. This gives me more interest in the Panthers, but it worries me that sharp money has come in on the Buccaneers and moved the line to -4.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still have no interest in betting this game, and the sharps are mixed. Some pro money came in on the Buccaneers -3, and some came in on Panthers +4.

Cleveland Browns (6-9) at Washington Redskins (7-7-1)
Line: Redskins by 2. Total: 40.5.
Sunday, Jan. 1, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides are now 23-30-1 this year.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Lions -2.5

Bengals -3.5

Titans -3

A losing week for the public once again.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Giants -5

Steelers +3

Cowboys -9.5

Falcons -3.5

Eagles -6.5

No surprise that everyone wants to fade the Colts!

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: It remains to be seen who will start at quarterback for the Redskins in this game. Taylor Heinicke had a pedestrian performance against the 49ers and was ultimately benched for Carson Wentz. The Redskins had more success moving the chains with Wentz, but only because the 49ers were utilizing a prevent defense as a result of having a big lead.

Wentz will probably be the starter for the next two games, which would ordinarily be disastrous for the Redskins, given how bad he is when pressured. However, the Browns don’t put much pressure on the quarterback. They have the eighth-worst pressure rate in the NFL, so Wentz will have plenty of time to find all three of his talented receivers.

Wentz may not have to do much anyway, as the Washington running backs could gash Cleveland’s defense. The Browns are miserable when it comes to stopping the run, so Brian Robinson Jr. figures to have a big performance.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: The Browns will obviously attempt to establish their ground attack as well. Nick Chubb saw more success than he had in prior games entering Week 16 because of the return of center Ethan Pocic. Then again, he was battling a Saints defense that had just been gashed by Tyler Allgeier.

The Redskins are much better against the run. They have a stalwart front line that just put the clamps on Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley in consecutive weeks, so they should be able to handle Chubb.

This will obviously put more pressure on Deshaun Watson than the Browns would like. Watson has gotten off to a horrible start in Cleveland, and he’ll eventually revert back to pre-2021 form, but we haven’t seen any signs of that. Watson will see plenty of pressure from the Redskins, so this may not be the matchup where he looks like the Pro Bowl quarterback of old.

RECAP: I think this spread is about a point too short. The Redskins are a bit better than the Browns, thanks to their vastly superior defense, so I made this line Washington -3. At -2, we’re getting a bit of value because the most likely result of this game is Washington winning by three.

This spread is probably short because the Redskins have lost two in a row to drop to 7-7-1. However, the Redskins outgained the Giants and probably would’ve won that game had they not been screwed by the officials on a pair of instances late in regulation. They were blown out by the 49ers, but there’s no shame in suffering a defeat against one of the best teams in the NFL. The Browns are obviously a major step down from the 49ers, and the Redskins match up well against them.

Under normal circumstances, I would have interest in the Redskins. However, this is where the Aurora Snowmo Effect becomes prevalent. The Aurora Snowmo Effect is a dynamic where teams that are favored and need to win often find a way to choke. All of the pressure is on this Redskins regime that doesn’t have much of a track record of success. It’s likely that they’ll choke under pressure as a result.

Furthermore, if the Redskins end up starting Wentz, he’s an easy fade. I have interest in Cleveland and will bet them if we can get a viable +3 line.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Carson Wentz will start, as it took the Redskins just two months to forget how bad he is. I have interest in the Browns at the moment, but their left tackle, Jedrick Wills, missed practice with a back injury. Still, they will be part of my teaser. I’m still deciding on a second leg.

SATURDAY NOTES: I still have no interest in this game. I don’t want to bet Carson Wentz as a favorite, and it sucks we’re not getting +3 with the Browns. I like Cleveland in a teaser more than anything.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have come in on the Browns on Sunday morning, likely because the Redskins are down a couple of defensive backs (Ben St-Juste, Kamren Curl). I’m going to put a unit on the Browns, with the best line being +1 +105 at BetUS.

New Orleans Saints (6-9) at Philadelphia Eagles (13-2)
Line: Eagles by 5.5. Total: 42.
Sunday, Jan. 1, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. Here’s something from our NFL Power Rankings:



I feel sorry for this John T. Hale character because he has a horrible disease where he writes “worst” instead of “best.” Let’s pray for his quick recovery.

Speaking of odd characters, Matt Gregory is back!



I’m beginning to think that Matt has never placed a bet in his life. And if my response seems out of left field, it’s in conjuction with this exchange:



Thanks, Matt, for pointing out a correct pick of mine! Unfortunately, in the process, he exposed himself as not knowing anything about betting. This, of course, should not be a surprise because his 4-year-old niece knows more about football than he does:



Imagine having a 4-year-old niece who knows more about football than you. Ouch.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: It’s unclear if Jalen Hurts will be able to play in this game. Hurts will attempt to return from his shoulder injury, but we’ve seen that the Eagles are in good hands with Gardner Minshew. It certainly wasn’t Minshew’s fault that Philadelphia lost to the Cowboys, as Miles Sanders, Boston Scott, and Quez Watkins all had fumbles that gave the Cowboys free possessions. The Eagles were up 34-27 with eight minutes remaining, and their defense had Dallas in a third-and-30. They should have won, or at least covered.

Minshew will have an easier matchup than he did in his first start. This is because the Saints don’t apply pressure on the quarterback. Cameron Jordan is showing major signs of decline, which would explain why the Saints have the fourth-worst pressure rate in the NFL. This is good news for Minshew, who won’t have Lane Johnson protecting him this week.

Philadelphia’s receivers figure to thrive in this matchup as well. The Saints’ defensive backfield has been ravaged by injury all year, as Marshon Lattimore has been sidelined since Week 6. He’s been limited in practice the past couple of weeks, so perhaps he’ll return this Sunday. He’ll sorely be needed against A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: It took the Saints a while, but they finally utilized Taysom Hill in last week’s game. Running Hill seemed like the obvious strategy in such a poor-weather game, yet Hill didn’t receive his first carry until late in the second quarter. The Saints kept feeding Hill and Alvin Kamara after that, and they were able to erase a 10-0 deficit as a consequence.

The Saints might have success pounding the ball with Hill and Kamara once again if Jordan Davis is sidelined. Davis’ return has been huge for the Eagles’ run defense, but he suffered a concussion and may not be available this Sunday.

Then again, the Eagles may realize that they can stack the box and force Andy Dalton to throw. It’s hard to imagine Dalton having much success against a fierce pass rush and two elite outside cornerbacks.

RECAP: The Eagles would have been able to rest their starters had they beaten the Cowboys. They’ll need to win this game to be able to rest in Week 18. Rest is a huge motivational factor for players who are fatigued from a very long season.

I have to think that the Eagles will take care of business as a result. They’ll want to rebound off a loss, and they’ll be able to do so versus an outmatched team like the Saints.

The only question is whether Hurts plays. If Hurts takes the field and isn’t deemed to be 100 percent, I think I’d consider switching sides to the Saints. However, if Minshew starts, or Hurts is 100 percent and ready to go, I’ll be on Philadelphia for a small-to-medium bet.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread is dropping because it doesn’t sound as though Jalen Hurts will play. Lane Johnson will likely be sidelined as well. The sharps believe this spread is too high, and I’m beginning to come to that conclusion as well. I’m going to switch my pick to New Orleans.

SATURDAY NOTES: There was some drama regarding Alvin Kamara during the week, but he returned to practice Friday and will play. The big news is that both Jalen Hurts and Lane Johnson are out. Johnson’s absence is huge, as the Eagles historically have been much worse without him. The sharps are on the Saints, and I will bet them as well for a couple of units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Saints are getting the sharp action, as all the +6 -110s are off the board. You can get +6 -115 at BetUS or +6 -122 at Bookmaker.

Arizona Cardinals (4-11) at Atlanta Falcons (5-10)
Line: Falcons by 6.5. Total: 40.5.
Sunday, Jan. 1, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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ARIZONA OFFENSE: We’re currently waiting on Colt McCoy’s status. Kliff Kingsbury said he wants to see McCoy start the next two games, but it’s unclear if McCoy will be able to clear concussion protocol. He’ll be needed to give the Cardinals a legitimate chance to win this game, as Trace McSorley is a total disaster.

That said, even if McSorley has to start again, the Cardinals will have a chance to score points because Atlanta’s defense is so bad. The Falcons generate less quarterback pressure than any other team in the NFL, and it’s not even close. The Cardinals have a poor offensive line, but McSorley will receive much better protection than he did last week.

The Cardinals should be able to run the ball well, too. The Falcons are better against the run than the pass, but only by default. They’re 20th in EPA rush defense, so James Conner will be able to put McSorley or McCoy in favorable passing situations.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: Desmond Ridder was almost as bad as McSorley in his debut, but he played better last week versus the Falcons. It remains to be seen if that will continue, as he’ll be matched up against a secondary that limited Tom Brady to just three points for most of regulation last week.

This result may have been surprising to many because Arizona was coming off a game in which it couldn’t stop Brett Rypien, but the team was able to get some injured cornerbacks returning from injury. Budda Baker will be sidelined for this contest, but it’s not like the Cardinals have a lethal aerial attack to stop. They’ll be able to handle just Drake London.

The Falcons, of course, will attempt to establish Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson because they’ll run the ball in any situation, even if they’re trailing by three touchdowns. Allgeier should have a strong performance, given that Arizona has the sixth-worst run defense in the NFL.

RECAP: You don’t know how frustrating it was to watch Buccaneers-Cardinals on Christmas night. I’m not referring to the bad coaching or miserable offensive play, but rather the fact that I wrote that I’d love the Cardinals if McCoy were starting. I thought the line was way too high, even at the +4 opener, but had no faith in McSorley not completely s**ting the bed and ruining a bet on Arizona. McSorley was terrible, and yet the Cardinals still covered!

We’re now stuck in the same dilemma. I like the Cardinals if McCoy starts because there’s no way a miserable team like the Falcons deserves to be surrendering key numbers of any sort. I’m quite aware that Arizona is also bad, but the Cardinals have a solid pass defense now that they’ve gotten some players back from injury. They can slow down Atlanta enough to steal a victory with McCoy. With McSorley? I’m not so sure.

I’ll have a definitive pick posted once the Arizona quarterback situation is resolved. Check back later, or follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: J.J. Watt announced that he’s retiring at the end of the year, so Arizona should play with more energy than the Falcons, who were just eliminated from the playoffs. Colt McCoy was also announced as the starter, so I love Arizona. I’m going to lock in the +3.5 -110 available at BetMGM because this spread has dropped to +3 in most sportsbooks.

SATURDAY NOTES: Ugh. I thought I locked in a good number, and then it was announced that Colt McCoy’s concussion symptoms re-surfaced. He’s out, so David Blough will start. Furthermore, DeAndre Hopkins missed Friday’s practice with a knee injury, so he could be out as well. Given the new injuries, I’d go with a two-unit bet on Arizona at +5.5.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps were on the Cardinals earlier in the week when Colt McCoy was expected to play, but that’s not the case anymore. If I hadn’t bet Arizona already, I’d have interest in +6.5 for two units. Unfortunately, I got screwed by locking this in early!

Jacksonville Jaguars (7-8) at Houston Texans (2-12-1)
Line: Jaguars by 3.5. Total: 43.
Sunday, Jan. 1, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Jaguars.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Props page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Trevor Lawrence had quite a few rocky moments in his rookie year, but he has transformed into a tremendous quarterback over the past few weeks. He led an incredible comeback over the Cowboys, then torched an elite Jets defense in poor weather conditions.

This battle against the Texans won’t be any easier, as Houston has had his number thus far. The Texans are 3-0 versus Lawrence, who threw no touchdowns and two interceptions against Houston in a 13-6 loss on Oct. 9. Lovie Smith may not be a very good head coach, but he’s a defensive mastermind who has been able to rattle the young quarterback thus far. Perhaps that’ll change this Sunday.

The Jaguars could ease any pressure off Lawrence by establishing Travis Etienne. The second-year back had a strong performance versus the Jets, and he should continue to run well against a porous Houston run defense.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: The Texans would love to rush the ball as well, but that may be easier said than done, given the matchup. It’s shocking, but the Jaguars have possessed a top-10 ground defense in recent weeks. They completely clamped down on Zonovan Knight last week, and they should have similar success against Royce Freeman.

This is crucial because the Texans have major problems scoring if they can’t run the ball. They’ve been destroyed by teams with good run defenses like the Redskins and Dolphins, and Jacksonville might treat them similarly. The Jaguars have a potent pass rush, after all, ranking fourth in pressure rate.

On the rare occasions in which Davis Mills has time in the pocket, he’ll be able to connect Brandin Cooks and Chris Moore. Cooks showed no effort earlier in the season, but that has changed, likely because he realized that he needs someone to pay him well on a new contract in the near future.

RECAP: This game means very little to the Jaguars. It’s not identical to the Tennessee situation because there’s still an outside chance Jacksonville can claim the No. 7 seed if it wins this game and loses next week to the Titans. A lot would need to happen, however, so the Jaguars’ main concern should be beating Tennessee next week. For those curious, here’s the road to the Jaguars possessing the No. 7 seed if they lose to the Titans:

Jaguars win at Texans in Week 17
Patriots win vs. Dolphins in Week 17
Seahawks win vs. Jets in Week 17
Bills win vs. Patriots in Week 18
Jets win at Dolphins in Week 18
Steelers lose one of final two games (at Ravens, vs. Browns)

All that could happen, but here’s what the Jaguars need to win the AFC South:

Jaguars win vs. Titans in Week 18

That’s it. Thus, I think there’s a chance Jacksonville will rest some of its starters this week. There’s a chance they may play only a half. It’s possible that Doug Pederson will use his starters, but opt to be overly cautious with anyone nursing a minor injury.

What matters most is that the Jaguar players know they don’t need to win this game. There’s no way I can bet on them.

Conversely, what’s the motivation for the Texans? They just got their big win over hated Tennessee. They don’t care about the Jaguars as much. Plus, if they win, they’ll move out of the No. 1 spot in the 2023 NFL Draft, assuming the Bears lose again. I don’t want to bet on the Texans either, so we’re at an impasse.

What I’m going to do is pick the Texans to cover the spread, but lose outright. That seems like the most likely scenario, but I don’t really know.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps are all over the Texans, and I get why. The Jaguars won’t be motivated, Trevor Lawrence sucks against Houston, and Jacksonville has some significant injuries. I get it. My worry is that the Texans may not try hard either because they’re a terrible team that just won a game. There could be pressure from ownership to lose so the No. 1 pick isn’t lost. If the Texans hadn’t won last week, I’d love them in this spot.

SATURDAY NOTES: The sharps continued to come in on the Texans, as they crashed this spread down to +3. The Jaguars may not play their starters the entire game, and they’ve had issues with Houston anyway. I’m going to jump on the Jaguars for two units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Travon Walker is back for the Jaguars, which indicates that they may not sit their starters in the second half. However, they could if the other results aren’t going their way. It’s not something I want to touch, but I’m less bullish on the Texans. I’m not going to bet on Houston. The sharps bet the Texans earlier in the week, but some pro money came in on Jacksonville at -3.

Chicago Bears (3-12) at Detroit Lions (7-8)
Line: Lions by 5.5. Total: 52.5.
Sunday, Jan. 1, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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CHICAGO OFFENSE: It was amazing how bad Detroit’s run defense was last week. The Panthers ripped off 30- and 20-yard runs on every other play. It was embarrassing to watch. There’s a chance it was a fluke, but the Lions are missing personnel defensively, including their excellent safety, DeShon Elliott. There’s a chance this could be a harbinger of things to come.

If it is, the Lions are in deep trouble against the Bears, who can pound the ball extremely effectively in positive matchups. David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert can trample bad run defenses, while Justin Fields will be able to dance circles around Detroit’s defense. We know this because Fields did exactly that in the prior meeting between these teams. Fields scrambled for 147 yards and two rushing touchdowns in that November contest.

Another Bear who had a strong performance in that game was Cole Kmet, who caught four passes for 74 yards and two touchdowns. The Lions have a very weak linebacking corps, so this was not a surprise. Elliott’s potential absence won’t help matters against the gifted tight end.

DETROIT OFFENSE: It should come as no surprise that the Lions also match up well against the opposing defense in this battle. Then again, who doesn’t match up well against Chicago’s abysmal defense?

The Bears, specifically, are atrocious when it comes to defending slot receivers. As it so happens, Detroit has one of the best slot receivers in the NFL, as Amon-Ra St. Brown caught 10 balls for 119 yards in the first meeting. Jared Goff misfired on just seven occasions in that contest.

Chicago is better against the run than the pass, but only by default. D’Andre Swift was limited to just six carries in that first meeting because he was still nursing an injury, but perhaps he’ll be a bigger factor in this rematch, given that this is a must-win game.

RECAP: Emmitt Smith once described backstabbing as “taking a gun, and stabbing someone in the back.” That is the sensation I am inflicting upon my victim right now.

Anyone who has read this site this entire season knows how bullish I’ve been on the Lions. I’ve picked them almost ever single week. The rare occasions were Week 4 versus the Seahawks when they were missing half of their starters. I was also against them last week. I will once again be fading them this Sunday.

I don’t think the Lions are great enough to be surrendering multiple key numbers as favorites. The Bears stink, but they’ve shown that they can move the ball well versus Detroit’s defense. The two teams engaged in a 31-30 shootout back in Week 10, with the Bears outgaining the Lions, 408-323, and averaging 1.5 more yards per play. Sure, that game was in Chicago, and Goff plays much better at home, but the conditions weren’t bad in that game. If they were, I wouldn’t have bet the Lions to cover the +2.5.

This line has moved way too many points. Teams get one point for being at home these days, so a Detroit -6 line here would mean that the Lions would be -4 at Chicago. Yet, they were +2.5. There’s been a 6.5-point swing because of Detroit’s recent success. Perhaps you can argue that it’s warranted, but what have the Lions done lately? They were just dominated versus the Panthers, who may have exposed a huge weakness that Fields and Montgomery can exploit. Before that, they beat the Jets, but only because of a punt block returned for a touchdown. The Jets, quarterbacked by Zach Wilson, averaged more yards per play in that game.

The Lions suddenly aren’t playing well, so I don’t think they deserve to be laying more than a field goal, even against Chicago. And as for the Bears, this is their last chance to make an impact in the playoffs this year. They battle the Vikings next week, but Minnesota is locked into the Nos. 2 or 3 seeds unless the Eagles suffer a major collapse. That Week 18 game may be so meaningless for the Vikings that they could rest their starters, so this is Chicago’s final chance to do something meaningful. The Bears players would love nothing more than to knock their divisional rival out of the playoffs, especially after losing to them at home.

As long as this line stays above +3, I love the Bears, and I will be betting them accordingly.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Lions didn’t have DeShon Elliott in practice Wednesday, which is a bad sign for their defense. I still like the Bears quite a bit at +6.

SATURDAY NOTES: There’s good injury news for the Bears, as two of their starting offensive linemen, Cody Whitehair and Teven Jenkins, will be back from injury. Chicago seems great at +6.

SATURDAY NOTES II: A couple of sportsbooks have dropped this line to +5.5, so I’m going to lock in the +6, which is still available at Bovada and BetUS.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I got burned by locking in the Cardinals, but this was the right call because all of the sharp action on Chicago has brought this line down to +5.5. You can get +6 -120 at Bookmaker.

Miami Dolphins (8-7) at New England Patriots (7-8)
Line: Patriots by 3. Total: 41.
Sunday, Jan. 1, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

MIAMI OFFENSE: Tua Tagovailoa was incredibly sharp in the first half against the Packers, so no one saw his fourth-quarter meltdown coming. It made no sense until we learned that he was playing with a concussion for the final frame after banging his head on the ground in the third quarter.

This is Tagovailoa’s third concussion this year, so it’ll be difficult for him to play in this game. Teddy Bridgewater is expected to start, so the Dolphins aren’t exactly in poor hands with him. Bridgewater has looked good in brief action this year, and he doesn’t have the most difficult matchup either. The Patriots have struggled to stop talented receivers all year, which obviously bodes poorly for them versus Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

The Dolphins, however, won’t be able to lean on their running game. They did so versus Buffalo and Green Bay, but it’ll be much more difficult to pound the rock against the Patriots, who are ranked ninth in EPA rush defense.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The Dolphins also have one of the better run defenses in the NFL, so Rhamondre Stevenson won’t be able to redeem himself from two horrible finishes. Stevenson began the lateral party during the Meyers Mishap, and he fumbled on first-and-goal while down 22-18 last week, though it could be argued that his forward progress was stopped. Still, Stevenson needs to bounce back, but he won’t have much of an opportunity to do so in this spot.

It’ll be up to Mac Jones to move the chains, which sounds horrible. Jones has enjoyed some strong performances this year, but he has disappointed overall with bad turnovers and untimely taken sacks, all while screaming at the coaching staff. It hasn’t all been his fault, as the offensive line definitely deserves some blame, but Jones has definitely disappointed. I still have no idea why Bill Belichick hasn’t made the change to Bailey Zappe.

Jones should have plenty of time in the pocket in this game, as Bradley Chubb has been a big disappointment for the Dolphins. Chubb was supposed to strengthen the pass rush, but the Dolphins still aren’t getting to the quarterback, which is putting lots of pressure on their secondary.

RECAP: As you may know, I love betting good or well-coached teams using their backup quarterbacks. The thinking behind this is that the supporting cast rises up to the occasion and gives 110 percent to rally behind the backup. It doesn’t always work – the Eagles fumbled their way into a non-cover last week – but this is a dynamic that hits at a high frequency.

The Dolphins could fall under this category if Tagovailoa is sidelined with his concussion. I imagine he will be, so it’ll likely be Bridgewater under center for the Dolphins. I’m not sure there’s a huge downgrade from Tagovailoa to Bridgewater, yet the Dolphins moved from a 1.5-point favorite to a 2.5-point underdog. We didn’t cross any key numbers, but NFL games land on margins of one or two a combined nine percent of the time. If you don’t think that’s significant, imagine handicapping games at a 50-percent clip, and then imagine doing so at a 59-percent rate!

Miami has owned New England in recent years anyway, winning its previous four matchups, so I like them to cover. I’ll love them even more if we can get +3.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: When I posted my pick on Tuesday, I said I liked the Dolphins because they were a good team starting their backup quarterback. Well, it sounds like the Patriots might be doing so as well. Bill Belichick hinted that Mac Jones could be benched, which is bullish for New England’s outlook because Bailey Zappe is better. I’m not going to bet this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: So much for Mac Jones not starting. He’ll be under center again, which makes me like the Dolphins for a couple of units. I just want to make sure Terron Armstead and Xavien Howard are playing after missing practice on Friday.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s no Terron Armstead or Bradley Chubb, so I have no interest in betting the Dolphins. Sharp action has come in on the Patriots on Sunday morning, likely because of the Armstead news.

Denver Broncos (4-11) at Kansas City Chiefs (12-3)
Line: Chiefs by 13. Total: 45.
Sunday, Jan. 1, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

Video of the Week: Another week, another Steamed Hams clip! In this one, everyone is Homer Simpson!



I didn’t think this one would have me dying, but it did. How great was that voice actor?

DENVER OFFENSE: It’s easy to forget how great Russell Wilson has been in the past. I’m not even referring to his Seattle days. Wilson was incredible in a second-half comeback against the Chiefs in Week 14. Wilson went 23-of-36 for 247 yards, three touchdowns and an interception to go along with 57 rushing yards. Unfortunately for Wilson, he couldn’t complete the comeback because he suffered a concussion.

Wilson looked like he was playing with a concussion on Christmas, throwing two early interceptions to give the Rams a 17-0 lead. Then again, the entire Denver team was a complete no-show, so singling out Wilson would be a mistake. Coming off such an embarrassing loss, I expect the Broncos to perform better, and that includes Wilson. The Chiefs have a poor defense, so they could struggle to stop him again.

The Broncos should be able to run the ball effectively as well. They didn’t get a chance to do this versus the Chiefs in the prior matchup because they fell into an early hole, but I expect Latavius Murray to shine.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Denver defense looked like they were all drunk off eggnog during their loss to the Rams, but I expect a more spirited performance from them as well. Unfortunately for them, they don’t particularly match up well against Patrick Mahomes. I know that usually goes without saying for almost every team, but Denver blitzes at a high rate. Mahomes is deadly versus the blitz.

The Broncos also aren’t very good at defending tight ends, as we witnessed on Christmas when Tyler Higbee broke DFS slates with multiple touchdowns. I don’t need to tell you that Travis Kelce projects well in this matchup.

Another area in which Denver struggles is defending the running game. If Higbee broke the slate, Cam Akers shattered it into a million pieces. Both Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon had strong performances at Denver, so they should once again thrive in the rematch.

RECAP: Who in their right mind would place a wager on the Broncos right now? Denver just lost to the Rams, 51-14. It was a complete embarrassment. However, I don’t think the loss should preclude people from betting on them. The Broncos didn’t put forth any effort, but that doesn’t mean that’ll happen again. NFL players are prideful, and such a humiliating loss will motivate them.

Speaking of motivation, Nathaniel Hackett’s firing should spark the Broncos as well. Teams playing in their first game after firing their their coach are 15-10 against the spread since 2010, with 10 outright wins in 18 opportunities as underdogs. I don’t think the Broncos will win this game outright, but it just goes to show that these teams in this situation beat expectations more often than not.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs don’t exactly resemble a team that should be favored by double digits. They’ve put together just two complete victories this year; otherwise, they’ve either sputtered in the first or second halves of their games. They’ve nearly lost to the Raiders, Malik Willis-led Titans, and even this very Broncos team a few weeks ago. Denver, on the other hand, has kept most of its games close, despite what happened on Christmas.

I like the Broncos to cover this spread. The line is just way too high for a Chiefs team that hasn’t been able to blow out most of their opponents this year.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It looks like there’s sharp money coming in on the Broncos, which is nice to see. I said it before, but this line is way too high. Denver hasn’t lost by more than 13 all year, excluding the Christmas game.

SATURDAY NOTES: Greg Dulcich is out, but I still love the Broncos as long as they have their two talented receivers.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Sharp money has been on the Broncos, which is nice to see. I can’t find a sportsbook with a clean +13, as you have to go with either +13 -115 or +12.5 -110. I’d rather go with the former.

Indianapolis Colts (4-10-1) at New York Giants (8-6-1)
Line: Giants by 6. Total: 38.5.
Sunday, Jan. 1, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are complete. They may return in the future, but I had to stop them for now. Besides, I wrote a similar-type book is called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:



Oh, and my other book is still available as well:



In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Wow, that was something else. The Colts decided to start Nick Foles over Matt Ryan for some reason on Monday night, and that either backfired or worked brilliantly, depending on whether you’re discussing winning games or maintaining positive draft positioning. Foles was dreadful, throwing horrible interceptions and showing no feel in the pocket. He was so bad, only an ESPN analyst serving as a coach would opt to have him as the starter.

Foles will give the Colts no chance to move the chains against anyone. He had an easy matchup versus the Chargers, yet couldn’t deliver. While pressured, he was 2-of-7 for 14 yards and two interceptions! I can’t trust him versus the Giants and their blitz-heavy defense. Sam Ehlinger doesn’t seem to be a much better option. Ehlinger can at least run, so that’s at least something. Thus, Matt Ryan is Indianapolis’ best option, but it seems as though Jeff Saturday is done with him.

With that in mind, it’s difficult to imagine the Colts having any success moving the chains unless Ryan makes a surprise start. They can’t even lean on their running game because Saturday is too stupid to use Deon Jackson in the wake of Jonathan Taylor’s injury. Zack Moss gives the Colts no explosive ability, so he won’t be able to take advantage against the Giants’ poor run defense.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Despite Foles’ miserable play Monday night, the Colts’ defense did a great job of keeping the game close. Indianapolis was down just 10-3 at halftime and 13-3 after three quarters. It wasn’t until Kwity Paye was knocked out of the game that the Chargers scored a touchdown to make it a three-possession affair.

We’ll see what happens with Paye this week. His presence will be crucial for Indianapolis’ chances of slowing down the Giants. This is particularly true for tackling Saquon Barkley, who finally looked healthy against the Vikings. Paye is an excellent run defender, so Barkley’s chances of having a great game in his absence are high.

Paye’s availability will also determine how well the Colts can pressure Daniel Jones. Indianapolis hounded Justin Herbert until Paye was knocked out. The pass rush was severely diminished after that, forcing Indianapolis to blitz. This did not work very well.

RECAP: If you give me a good opportunity to fade the Giants, I’ll take it. If the Vikings didn’t exist, they would be the most overrated team in the NFL. New York was outgained by the Panthers in Week 2, then barely beat an injured Aaron Rodgers a few weeks later. It defeated the Redskins a couple of weeks ago, but it was outgained in total yards and yards per play. The Giants are 26th in adjusted net EPA, and they could easily be 6-9 right now. If they were, they wouldn’t be favored by five.

That said, I cannot back Foles again. If he were a horse, he’d be on his way to the glue factory right now. I can’t get over how bad he was when pressured. He threw off his back foot as if he were some fan in the stands thrust into action. If the Colts do the right thing and bench Foles, I’ll have interest in betting them, especially if Paye can play. We’ll just have to wait on updates for the time being.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: We’re still waiting on an announcement of who is starting for the Colts. I’ll have a better update on Saturday.

SATURDAY NOTES: Nick Foles is starting. Why!? I wanted to bet the Colts, but I can’t do it with Foles starting again.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I have no interest in betting Nick Foles. I have no interest in laying 5.5 with a crap team like the Giants. There’s some sharp money on Indianapolis, but not a lot. You can get +6 -115 at Bookmaker if you want to bet the Colts.