NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 17, 2022

New York Jets (7-8) at Seattle Seahawks (7-8)
Line: Jets by 1.5. Total: 43.5.
Sunday, Jan. 1, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Jets.

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NEW YORK OFFENSE: The big news ahead of this game is that Mike White has finally been cleared to play. I identify as doctor, so the Jets could have came to me all this time, and I would have cleared White in exchange for some merchandise, unless they offered a stupid keychain. I hate those things. Another doctor was cunning enough to clear White, so Jets fans no longer have to languish through miserable quarterbacking.

White should have a great performance, provided that he’s close to 100 percent. The key factor here is that the Seahawks won’t be able to rattle him at all. Seattle has a bottom-10 pass rush, which would explain the team’s issues with stopping aerial attacks despite having some talented defensive backs. Speaking of those defensive backs, Ryan Neal missed last week’s game. That was a big loss because Neal has been an excellent safety this year.

As bad as the Seahawks are versus the pass, they’re even worse against the run. No team is worse against the rush than Seattle this year, so this could be a big game for Zonovan Knight.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Seahawks have a miserable defense, but they’ve been able to win seven games via their passing attack, as D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett have been electric this year. Lockett is out, however, so the one strength has been diminished.

The Seahawks are much easier to defend with just Metcalf as the lone, potent receiver. Geno Smith had to target Laquon Treadwell last week, as Treadwell was used instead of promising rookie Dareke Young for some reason. Smith is not going to have much success throwing to the likes of Treadwell and Marquise Goodwin, especially against an elite defense like the Jets that will smother Metcalf with Sauce Gardner.

New York is worse against the run than the pass, so perhaps Kenneth Walker will have a decent performance. Then again, the Jets will be able to key in on him, given the issues Seattle has at receiver.

RECAP: I was shocked to see the Seahawks open as favorites. That didn’t last very long, unfortunately. The sharps bet the Jets aggressively Monday afternoon, and the Jets are now small favorites.

I love the Jets, if you couldn’t tell. I’ve been fading the Seahawks for weeks now, and I see no reason to stop. They have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, while their offense is now much worse with Lockett sidelined. Yet, people still don’t realize how bad they are. How bad are they, exactly? They’re 30th in net adjusted EPA. The only teams worse are the Cardinals and Bears!

The Jets are much better than the Seahawks. If you ignore the loss to the Jaguars because Zach Wilson capsized their potential victory, New York’s recent results haven’t been so bad. The Jets gave the Bills everything they could handle in Week 14, and this was one week prior to the Jets averaging more yards per play than the Lions, who only won because of a blocked punt. Prior to this, the Jets were inches away from beating the Vikings on the road.

With White back, I think the Jets should be able to win this game rather easily. This is one of my top bets of the week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It sounds like there’s a chance that Tyler Lockett will play, hence the line movement. I wouldn’t hold my breath though, as Pete Carroll is always Mr. Optimism in that regard.

SATURDAY NOTES: It looks like Tyler Lockett will play after practicing fully on Friday. Al Woods should be back as well for Seattle. I still like the Jets, but less so than I did earlier in the week.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: It looks like some -2 lines are popping up, so I wouldn’t blame anyone for locking this in early. I’d rather see the inactives.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Tyler Lockett will play, but the Seahawks will be missing their right tackle and top safety. There has been some sharp money on both sides, but a bit more on the Jets than the Seahawks. This line has risen to -2.5 at FanDuel, but you can still get -1.5 at Bookmaker and BetMGM.

San Francisco 49ers (11-4) at Las Vegas Raiders (6-9)
Line: 49ers by 9.5. Total: 41.
Sunday, Jan. 1, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: 49ers.

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SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Last week was a big test for Brock Purdy. He won his first two starts, but was battling two of the weaker defenses in the NFL, as the Buccaneers and Seahawks were 24th and 32nd in adjusted EPA a week ago. The Redskins ranked second, so it would have been understandable had Purdy taken a step backward.

Instead, Purdy put together a strong performance. He hit his targets for numerous big gains after his team sputtered a bit in the early stages of the afternoon. The result was a blowout victory, which bodes well for Purdy’s chances in this game. The Raiders have weaknesses in the secondary that can be abused if the pass rush doesn’t create pressure on the opposing quarterback. Considering how well protected Purdy is, he’s unlikely to be rattled.

The 49ers shouldn’t have any issues establishing Christian McCaffrey either. McCaffrey didn’t do much versus the Redskins because it was a rough matchup. The Raiders usually don’t present a great one either, but Denzel Perryman was knocked out of last week’s game. The Raiders have been terrible against the run when Perryman has been out of the lineup.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: There’s little doubt that the 49ers will have the better running game in this matchup. While McCaffrey projects to have a great performance if Perryman is out, Josh Jacobs will struggle despite his recent complaints to the media. No team is better at defending running backs than the 49ers.

The Raiders have issues establishing a consistent offensive output if they can’t get Jacobs going. We saw this Christmas Eve when the Steelers put the clamps on Jacobs, and that will be apparent once again.

Derek Carr will often be in unfavorable passing downs in this contest, which will have disastrous results. The Raiders don’t pass protect very well, and that doesn’t bode well against the 49ers and their elite pass rush.

RECAP: The Raiders are still technically alive for a playoff spot, but for all intents and purposes, they were eliminated with the loss to the Steelers. With that in mind, I can’t see them trying very hard in this game, even if it’s the fabled Battle of the Bay rivalry. The Raiders had huge aspirations this season, but they were a huge disappointment. Now practically eliminated, the Raiders may just mail in this game.

With that in mind, I’m on the 49ers. I think this spread is fair, so I don’t see a reason to bet them, aside from the potential lack of motivation for the Raiders.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Congrats if you bet 49ers -5.5 or -6 because this line is now -10 in the wake of Derek Carr being benched. Jarrett Stidham is a downgrade, but I think it’s fine to have Carr take a seat because the Raiders will want to trade him, and they want to avoid having him get injured. Still, this move signals the end of the season for the Raiders, so I’ll be shocked if they play with any sort of motivation.

SATURDAY NOTES: The more I think about it, the more I believe the Raiders will play with no motivation. Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams were angry about the Derek Carr decision, and I imagine the rest of the locker room isn’t in favor of it as well. Meanwhile, the Raiders are down three key defenders (Chandler Jones, Denzel Perryman, Rock Ya-Sin), so I’m going to jump on the 49ers for a couple of units.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m surprised this line hasn’t gone to -10 yet. The sharps haven’t touched this game at all since the line has risen.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread has moved to -10 in some books, but you can still get -9.5 at FanDuel and BetMGM. As mentioned, the sharps haven’t been on this game.

Minnesota Vikings (12-3) at Green Bay Packers (7-8)
Line: Packers by 3. Total: 47.5.
Sunday, Jan. 1, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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GREEN BAY OFFENSE: The Packers had some horrible offensive outputs during the middle of the season. It was perplexing at the time, but we eventually learned that Rodgers was nursing a broken thumb. Rodgers has since gotten healthier, which has coincided with his team’s recent three-game winning streak.

Rodgers had a great second half at Miami on Christmas, so he should continue to thrive in this matchup. The Vikings have one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL, ranking 28th in that regard. They’ve allowed pedestrian and mediocre quarterbacks like Mac Jones and Daniel Jones to torch them, so a healthier Rodgers shouldn’t have any problems moving the chains in this matchup, especially if Christian Watson is available. Rodgers’ top receiver got hurt versus the Dolphins, though his absence didn’t impact Rodgers’ great play in the second half.

Rodgers was able to lead his team to a victory without any sort of running game in Miami. Aaron Jones had a rough matchup against the Dolphins. This is an easier one, as Saquon Barkley learned last week.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The first thing I look at when breaking down a game featuring Kirk Cousins is the pressure rate of the opposing team. No NFL quarterback wants pressure in his face, but some handle it better than others. Cousins is one of the worst starters when dealing with pressure. His completion percentage falls from 72.3 when kept clean to 51.3 when under pressure.

The Packers are eighth in pressure rate, though they rely on a frequent blitz to get to the quarterback so early. Cousins isn’t great versus the blitz by any means, but he’s not terrible in that regard either, so there’s a good chance Cousins will be able to outscore the Packers. Cousins, of course, has so many talented weapons at his disposal. Justin Jefferson went off against the Packers back in Week 1, so he could have another stellar performance.

Dalvin Cook should be able to thrive as well. There are only two teams, the Seahawks and Giants, who have a worse adjusted rush defense EPA than the Packers. The Dolphins were gashing Green Bay on Christmas, but they stopped handing the ball off in the second half for some reason. I doubt the Vikings will cease utilizing Cook.

RECAP: People in Minnesota are known to be nice. I’ve had a different experience. I’ve gotten so much hate mail from Vikings fans this year because of how I’ve picked against them so often and placed their team low in my NFL Power Rankings. They’ve been ruthless.

I imagine all of them will be surprised upon reading this pick because I’m going to be on the Vikings for the first time since their Week 5 push versus the Bears. Yes, it’s true, and no, I have not been kidnapped and replaced by a doppelganger, though that’s what a doppelganger would say.

When it comes down to it, I don’t think the Packers should be surrendering any key numbers as favorites. Their defense is terrible, while their offense will take a hit if Watson is sidelined. I like how their offense matches up with Green Bay’s stop unit, so I wouldn’t count out a late score to push or cover the number, especially if we get +3.5.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Good news for the Packers: David Bakhtiari was limited in Wednesday’s practice. Bad news for the Packers: Christian Watson wasn’t able to practice.

SATURDAY NOTES: Christian Watson is still a question mark after going DNP-DNP-limited in practice. However, David Bakhtiari wasn’t on the final injury report, so I’m going to drop the unit count down to two.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: We’re still waiting on Christian Watson news, but I’m going to be on the Vikings regardless.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Christian Watson will play, but we don’t know how limited he’ll be in this game. I’m still on the Vikings, but I’ve decided not to bet this game because the Packers are healthier than anticipated. If you want to do so, you can get +3 +100 at Bookmaker.

Los Angeles Rams (5-10) at Los Angeles Chargers (9-6)
Line: Chargers by 6.5. Total: 41.
Sunday, Jan. 1, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called Going to See Santa. See what happened when my wife and I took our son to see Santa for the first time. I somehow traveled through a worm hole!

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The Rams just embarrassed their opponent so much on Christmas that they caused a head coach to be fired. Russell Wilson struggled mightily versus the Rams, as two early interceptions of his allowed Los Angeles to establish a quick 17-0 lead.

It’s safe to say that the Chargers will have much more success against the Rams. Justin Herbert shouldn’t have any trouble torching Los Angeles’ secondary, as most talented quarterbacks have done this year, despite Jalen Ramsey’s presence. This is because the Rams don’t get to the opposing signal-caller. Aside from the Falcons and Bears, no team gets less pressure on the quarterback.

Herbert will have all the time he needs to locate his talented weapons. There’s only one Ramsey on the opposite side, yet Herbert has so many lethal threats in his arsenal. And it’s not even like Ramsey is playing up to his usual level anyway.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: It’s safe to say that no one saw Baker Mayfield’s Christmas performance coming. I even have a Mayfield Reignmakers core NFT that I opened in a pack, yet I didn’t even put it into a lineup. It was projected to be a difficult matchup versus the Broncos, yet Mayfield was the top-scoring quarterback on the slate.

Mayfield took advantage of a lethargic Denver defense that gave zero effort. The Chargers will try harder, but this is an easier projected matchup. Like the Rams, the Chargers don’t produce much pressure on the opposing quarterback. That’ll change when Joey Bosa returns, but for now, the Chargers own the NFL’s 26th-ranked pressure rate.

Mayfield will also be able to capitalize off of Cam Akers’ excellent running. Akers looked like the running back of old on Christmas. Perhaps this was the byproduct of the Broncos mailing it in, but Akers has a terrific matchup here versus the Chargers, who are ranked 22nd in adjusted EPA run defense.

RECAP: This spread is way too high. I make my own lines prior to looking at the posted spreads, and I made this number Chargers -3. Imagine my shock when I saw that the Chargers, playing on a short week, were favored by 6.5!

Sean McVay has Mayfield playing well, and I don’t think it’s a fluke. Mayfield bombed in Carolina, but he received terrible coaching. It would make sense that McVay would get the most out of Mayfield. Meanwhile, Akers looks like he’s the running back of old, and you have to love this matchup for him.

As for the Chargers, they seldom win by large margins because they are overrated. I’ve talked about this before, but I view the Chargers as the Nikola EV company. Nikola is famous for its commercial that had one of their EV trucks impressively drive downhill, only for it to be later revealed that the truck had no engine; employees simply pushed it down the hill. The truck was all flash and no substance, and that’s exactly how I would describe the Chargers. They have issues stopping the run, defending the pass, getting to the quarterback, running the ball, and pass protecting for Herbert. They throw extremely well, especially when trailing, but that’s it. And outside of quarterback, running back and receiver, I challenge you to find an area where the Chargers are better than the Rams.

I love getting the Rams at +6.5. There’s no way a mediocre team like the Chargers should be surrendering all but one of the key numbers, especially on one fewer day of rest.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Derwin James missed Wednesday’s practice with a concussion, so there’s some karma. I still love the Rams.

SATURDAY NOTES: Derwin James is out, but it sounds like Joey Bosa will play his first game since September. He could be a bit rusty though. I still like the Rams, as the Chargers don’t really have much to play for in this game because they’re stuck in the No. 5 or 6 seed.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m hoping we get a +7 line. I don’t see a good +7 line anywhere.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The best +7 line I found is available for -125 vig at Bovada. The math says it’s not worth it, especially with -6.5 -106 available at FanDuel. The sharps haven’t taken a side.

Pittsburgh Steelers (7-8) at Baltimore Ravens (10-5)
Line: Ravens by 1. Total: 35.5.
Sunday, Jan. 1, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: We didn’t get to see how Kenny Pickett would perform against the Ravens in the first meeting between these teams because he was knocked out early with a concussion. He couldn’t have done worse than Mitchell Trubisky, who moved the chains well in between the 20s, but threw three interceptions in Baltimore territory.

Then again, it’s not like Pickett was able to torch a poor Raider secondary on Saturday night. Pickett struggled mightily and was constantly booed throughout the second half. Sure, he had to endure some harsh weather, but he should have enjoyed more success in a plus matchup regardless. It’ll be tougher for him to throw on the Ravens, though the weather will at least be more favorable. There might be some light rain, but it’s projected to be 47 degrees.

The Steelers were able to run well on the Raiders, but it remains to be seen if they’ll have the same success Sunday night. It comes down to Calais Campbell’s availability. Campbell missed last week’s matchup versus the Falcons. Atlanta ran well on Baltimore because of Campbell’s absence, so the Steelers will be hoping that he’s out again.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: It’s currently unclear if Lamar Jackson will play. When I wrote up the Baltimore-Atlanta pick preview last Tuesday, I assumed Jackson would be under center. I never even entertained the possibility that he’d be sidelined again, but he never even practiced.

There’s a chance Jackson will return, and if so, it’ll mark the first time he and Ronnie Stanley will be on the field for the first time since Week 9, which is the time when Baltimore was crushing the likes of the Saints and Buccaneers. Having Stanley available will be crucial for Jackson’s return, given how potent Pittsburgh’s pass rush is when T.J. Watt is on the field.

Regardless, the Steelers will at least be able to handle the Baltimore rushing attack. They are 12th in EPA run defense, so they’ll be able to do enough to slow down J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards.

RECAP: It’s hard to make a pick at the moment because we don’t have news on Jackson yet. If Jackson plays and is banged up, I’d have interest in the Steelers at a higher number. If it’s Tyler Huntley, Baltimore -3 will look appealing. If Jackson is healthy, we’ll have to see what the spread is, but he could still be rusty upon his return.

I’ve been on the Steelers ever since Watt returned from injury, and it’s worked all but once. Pittsburgh is 6-2 with Watt on the field this year. However, the Steelers lost twice since his return to the two upper-echelon teams they’ve battled: the Ravens and Bengals. I don’t need to tell you that the Ravens belong in the same tier as the Ravens and Bengals. It really doesn’t take a rocket scientists to figure that one out.

Check back later in the week when we have news on Jackson, or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Lamar Jackson didn’t practice Wednesday. It’s still early in the week, but we may not see him again.

SATURDAY NOTES: Lamar Jackson is out, yet the line barely moved at all. I’m still on the Steelers, but I don’t think I’ll be betting this game.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m too torn on this game to bet it right now, but I know Jacob Camenker really likes the Steelers if you want to tail him.

FINAL THOUGHTS: We’re coming off an afternoon where Mike White sucked against the worst defense in the NFL, while Jarrett Stidham torched the best defense in the NFL. I’m going to lay off this game, and the sharps are doing the same. I’m leaning toward the Steelers with Calais Campbell sidelined, but it’s not enough for me to bet the Steelers.

Buffalo Bills (12-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (11-4)
Line: Bills by 2.5. Total: 49.5.
Monday, Jan. 2, 8:30 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Buffalo, where tonight, the Cincinnati Bearcats take on the Buffalo Bulls! Guys, people are saying this is a big game, but forgive me if we don’t talk about it because we have a special guest here tonight. It’s the commissioner of the Ukranian Football League, the good old UFL, and he would like to address us because we are the best broadcasting team in the world. Commissioner Vladimir Goodellinsky, it’s a pleasure to have you here, and thank you for dressing up in your fancy green sweatshirt!

Vladimir Goodellinsky: Many sank yous, it is great be here vis you great football players, but I come to you today to ask to please NFL give to Ukranian Football League lots of money for good referees, equipments, and Gatorade borscht flavor. I promise I not going to use zis money for laundry for politician. Sank you for your great investments, here is flag for Ukranian Football League I give you for no reasons, it is worth 500,716,000,000 rubles in my country which vorse $1.50 in American, sank you, to please. Reilly: Well, I’m sold! The NFL can’t afford great referees, but we need to make sure we fund the Ukrainian Football League with great referees!

Emmitt: Doug Reilly, I cannot agreement with you, even if I wanted to. The NFL need to hire better official to make sure there are no missed steak in the game. Did you see how they screw over Terry McFlurry and the Redskin? I don’t even like the Redskin because he the bad guy when I play with the Dallas Texas, but the enemy of my enemy is also my enemy too.

Reilly: Emmitt, I never realized how evil you are. You must want the Russian Football League to win! You’re a puppet of Roger Putin!

Tollefson: Come on, Kevin, Vladimir Goodellinsky didn’t even give us any incentive to fund the Ukrainian Football League. Vlad, as someone who has conned a person or two in my day, can you tell us why we should support you? Surely you’ll gift us some female slaves that’ll cook and clean naked for us?

Reilly: Tolly, I thought you were my best friend! Now I see that you’re also a puppet of Roger Putin! John Festerman, our great Senator President, can you throw these people in jail for being puppets of Roger Putin!?

John Fetterman: Puppets haha! I like puppets. Puppies are … the puppies. Puppies belong in jail. Puppies don’t belong in jail. Do the puppets belong in jail? Who are the puppets and the puppies? Haha, I like puppies.

Reilly: Wow, I can see why people voted for you, John Festerman! Our country is better in your hands! Schefter, I never want to speak to you, but can you give us some breaking news about these a**holes being sent to jail for being puppets of Roger Putin?

Adam Schefter: Kevin, I have breaking news, and I just checked with Duke Tobin to make sure I could break the news. Last week, I told you that I cloned a microscopic version of myself, as well as a syringe with Covid-19 vaccine, so I could have the tiny clone climb into my anus and inject me with the syringe, but the clone died in a pooping accident. Kevin, this week, I cloned an 800-foot version of myself, so I went inside his anus with a Covid-19 syringe and injected him with the vaccine. I can report that the large clone is vaccinated, and there were no pooping deaths, Kevin. My big clone just caught Covid, but he’s happy that he had the vaccine injected in his anus, Kevin. Back to you, Kevin.

Reilly: Schefter, that was the most useless report you’ve ever given us! Roger Goodell, surely you can throw these Roger Putin puppets in jail!

Goodell: Fellow hu-man, I see you are talking about puppets. As a fellow hu-man, I also like puppets. My favorite puppet is – randomizing – Count von Count. I like Count von Count because he is my favorite puppet, which makes me a fellow hu-man because all hu-mans have a favorite puppet.

Reilly: I give up! All of you are useless idiots! Mr. President, can you do something about these traitor Roger Putin puppets?

Joe Biden: Not so fast, slick, we’ll do a pushup contest, and the first one to 20 answers correct gets the yellow-bellied barnacle. People are talking about Putin all the time. Putin stole the election in 2016 to make George the president. I didn’t like George since he stole stuff from the museum, but the man in the yellow hat made him give it back. Come on man, can’t you see that Putin’s controlling everything? He won’t even let me sniff his little granddaughters. I says, come on man, everyone lets me sniff their granddaughters, or better yet, great granddaughters, and then I can take them into the shower.

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe is wrong, wrong, excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe just said that the election was stolen in my favor, but that’s the furthest thing from the truth, in fact, it is such a lie, it’s the biggest lie anyone has ever heard of, and frankly, I’ve heard of some big lies, and no one has ever heard of bigger lies than me, but you know who is the biggest lie of them all is Sleepy Joe because he’s the one who stole the election, not me, I lost in the greatest election crime anyone has ever seen, but that’s what I was told, I don’t know if there was election crime or not, but people told me there was election crime, so it must be true, but what I do know is that there is no way Sleepy Joe is getting that yellow-bellied barnacle because that is my yellow-bellied barnacle, the best yellow-bellied barnacle anyone has ever seen because it is mine, and frankly, I have the best yellow-bellied barnacles because I know all the answers to the 20 questions, and no one is even close, frankly, everyone is so far away from me that they’re a total disaster and a total disgrace, including Sleepy Joe.

Wolfley: DONALD, YOU’RE MISTAKEN ONCE AGAIN. I HAVE THE BEST YELLOW-BELLIED BARNACLE IN MY COLLECTION, AND IT IS GUARDED BY MY SECURITY GUARD, AN ASTHMA INHALER WITH FOUR SETS OF LIPS.

Reilly: Guys, I’m afraid you’re not taking the Ukrainian Football League seriously! I bet New Daddy is though! Right, New Daddy!?

Jay Cutler: Nah, no one cares about that s**t.

Reilly: New Daddy! I can’t believe you’re a puppet of Roger Putin! Why are all of you puppets of Roger Putin!?!?!?

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you’re a puppet of Vladimir Goodellinsky, Kevin, which is really a puppet of the deep state, Kevin, but let’s get to other puppets, Kevin. Someone already mentioned Count Von Count, Kevin. He can really count, Kevin. Get it, Kevin? The Count can count, Kevin. What do you think about Bert, Kevin? He takes bubble baths with Ernie, Kevin. Not that there’s anything wrong with that, Kevin. How about we discuss Oscar the Grouch, Kevin? He lives in a trash can, Kevin, just like you, Kevin. Let’s get to Big Bird, Kevin. He’s big and a bird, Kevin, which is how we got the name, Kevin. Give me your thoughts on Elmo, Kevin. He likes to be tickled, Kevin, but no one will ever tickle you, Kevin, because no one likes you, Kevin. And then there’s Kevin Reilly, Kevin, who is a puppet of the deep state, Kevin.

Reilly: YOU’RE THE F**KING PUPPET! ALL OF YOU ARE PUPPETS OF ROGER PUTIN!!! I’M GOING TO PUT A UKRAINIAN FOOTBALL LEAGUE LOGO RIGHT NEXT TO MY TWITTER NAME SO PEOPLE KNOW HOW GOOD OF A PERSON I AM, AND IF YOU DON’T HAVE ONE, THEN YOU’RE A BAD PERSON BECAUSE YOU’RE A PUPPET OF ROGER PUTIN!!! We’ll be back after this!

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: If this matchup occurred a month-and-half ago, I would have written how the Bills had a big edge on this side of the ball. They had one of the top pass rushes in the NFL despite not blitzing very often, so they could have really bothered Joe Burrow. While Burrow is an elite quarterback, he can be slowed down by teams that generate lots of pressure and don’t blitz. That last bit is key because Burrow is the best quarterback in the NFL against the blitz. That’s why he’s blitzed less frequently than any other quarterback in the NFL this year.

The Bills can still get to the quarterback well, but their pass rush took a hit in the wake of Von Miller’s injury on Thanksgiving. They haven’t gotten to the quarterback as consistently since, though there’s a chance that could change in this game. That’s because the Bengals lost right tackle La’el Collins to a knee tear. The Collins injury will be an enormous loss for Cincinnati.

That said, I still expect the Bengals to have plenty of offense success. The Bills don’t have an elite pass rush anymore, and they have some issues in their secondary that can be exploited by Burrow’s many talented weapons.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Bengals may have lost Collins, but they welcomed back some injured players last week. That includes Trey Hendrickson, who bolstered a pass rush that wasn’t prevalent at all in a Week 15 matchup against the Buccaneers. Hendrickson made sure that the Bengals put plenty of pressure on Mac Jones this past Saturday.

Things could change this week – we’ll have updates once practice reports are released – but the Bills currently don’t have their entire offensive line intact. This could give the Bengals an opportunity to generate pressure on Josh Allen, who had some wonky throws against the Bears last week. Allen is obviously a great quarterback, but he tends to get into these multi-week funks where he makes bad decisions. His performance against Chicago might signify that he’s likely to continue to underachieve. That may sound odd, given that the Bills beat the Bears, 35-13, but Buffalo was down at halftime and led just 21-13 in the fourth quarter.

The Bills were able to get a good game out of James Cook last week, but they shouldn’t count on that happening again. The Bengals have been stout against the run since getting their two starting defensive tackles back from injury. They clamped down on Rhamondre Stevenson last week, so they should have similar success versus Cook and Devin Singletary.

RECAP: The Bengals continue to be disrespected by the oddsmakers. They have the spread record in the NFL this year, as the lines in their games haven’t been as high as they should be. This included a matchup against the Chiefs earlier in the season when Cincinnati was a home underdog. The Bengals have been treated similarly in this matchup.

The Bengals are too good to be home underdogs against anyone, even the Bills. Besides, it’s not like Buffalo is playing great football at the moment. The Bills have had trouble distancing themselves from everyone they’ve played recently, save for the Patriots. Chicago, as mentioned, led at halftime, while the Jets may have pulled the upset if Mike White didn’t suffer an injury.

This won’t be a big play for me because we’re not getting any key numbers, but I think the Bengals will win this statement game. The sharps appear to be on the other side, but the sharps are often wrong about the Bengals as long as Burrow is quarterbacking the team. When not favored by more than a touchdown, Burrow is a ridiculous 31-11 against the spread in his career.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m seeing lots of sharp money coming in on the Bills. The sharps also bet on another AFC East team versus the Bengals last week, and we saw how that turned out!

SATURDAY NOTES: Jordan Poyer was DNP-DNP-limited in practice this week. If he’s out, I’ll have interest in betting the Bengals.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’ve moved this to TBA units. Again, I’ll have interest in the Bengals if Poyer is out.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Jordan Poyer is in, and Sam Hubbard is out. I’m not sure if this is what the sharps see, but the sharps bet the Bills up to -2.5 today. I was trying to find a viable +3, but the best I could find is +3 -135 at Bovada and BetUS. I’m going with the +2.5 -105 at Bovada, but I’m betting the minimum to stay in the black this week.