NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 3, 2013

NFL Picks (Preseason 2013): 10-6 (+$720)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2013): 4-11-1 (-$1,290)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2013): 6-10 (+$130)

NFL Picks (2013): 20-27-1 (-$440)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Sept. 23, 4:59 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 3 NFL Picks – Early Games

Atlanta Falcons (1-1) at Miami Dolphins (2-0)
Line: Dolphins by 2.5. Total: 45.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Pick.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 2): Falcons -1.
Sunday, Sept. 22, 4:05 ET
Discuss Week 3 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Dolphins.

This summer, I ran a Mafia game on the Web site called Penn State Sex Scandal Mafia. You can click the link to read the introduction and see the list of players. I’ll add to this page throughout the season, listing roles and talking about funny things that happened during the game.

Why am I doing this? Well, I wanted to post this on the main section of this Web site so that the mainstream media people who have sand in their vages will pick up on this and complain that I’m being insensitive.

Oh, and by the way, we have other Mafia games going on right now in the Mafia Forum. Mafia is a blast, so come and join the fun.

MIAMI OFFENSE: It’s unbelievable how many injuries the Falcons have sustained recently. Stud linebacker Sean Weatherspoon is out indefinitely with a Lisfranc injury. Kroy Biermann is done for the year with an Achilles. Asante Samuel, who has been in and out of the lineup, tweaked his thigh last week. If Samuel is out or limited, the Falcons will have to rely on two rookie corners on top of the pedestrian Akeem Dent and unknown Joplo Bartu playing tons of snaps at linebacker. That doesn’t sound like a promising situation.

On top of this mess, the Falcons maintain a front seven that can’t put any pressure on the quarterback. They have just two sacks on the year, as Osi Umenyiora has been predictably disappointing. This has to be a relief for Ryan Tannehill, who is protected by a shoddy offensive line. Tannehill received time in the pocket last week against the inept Colts, and the results were tremendous; he went 23-of-34 for 319 yards and a touchdown. I don’t see why he can’t have similar results.

I also expect a decent game from Lamar Miller. The second-year back struggled in the opener versus Cleveland’s vaunted defense, but bounced back nicely. The Falcons currently rank ninth against the run (2.93 YPC), but that figure will worsen quickly without Weatherspoon and Biermann.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: The Falcons also have injury problems on this side of the football. The most prominent player to get hurt recently was Steven Jackson, who has already been ruled out for this contest. There’s a huge drop-off between Jackson and Jacquizz Rodgers, as Atlanta discovered in the final three quarters of the St. Louis contest. Rodgers won’t scare the Dolphins at all.

Meanwhile, Roddy White has barely been practicing and consequently has functioned as nothing more than a decoy. Matt Ryan was still able to have a big game last week by continuously hooking up with Julio Jones. If Ryan is protected well, I don’t see why he can’t match those results.

Of course, protection is a big issue when going up against Cameron Wake. The Falcons are weak at tackle – both sides; Sam Baker has struggled this season – so I have no idea how they’re going to contain Wake while worrying about Randy Starks applying pressure in the interior.

RECAP: This game really reminds me of last week’s Dallas-Kansas City tilt. The Chiefs were the right side at first, but it wasn’t smart to bet them because the sharps drove up the spread in that contest. As with Kansas City, I wanted Miami in a home underdog role for this matchup. Unfortunately, that’s not available.

I don’t really have an opinion about this contest. If I were to lean one way, I’d take the Falcons because Ryan is good enough to will his team to victory despite all of these injury hurdles.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Falcons have so many injuries, so I can’t back them for any units. I don’t think there’s any value with the Dolphins though.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
This is Miami’s chance to prove that it’s legitimate. However, the Falcons will be playing extra hard because they know they’re shorthanded.

The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.

The Falcons are the most highly bet side of the week.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 78% (50,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Falcons.

Underdog is 41-18 ATS in the Dolphins’ last 59 games.

Dolphins are 7-13 ATS vs. NFC teams since 2008.

Dolphins are 1-9 ATS as a favorite coming off a SU win as an underdog since 2007.

Dolphins are 1-10 ATS in September home games since 2006.

Opening Line: Dolphins -1.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: .

Week 3 NFL Pick: Falcons 24, Dolphins 23
Falcons +2.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 45 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Dolphins 27, Falcons 23

Indianapolis Colts (1-1) at San Francisco 49ers (1-1)
Line: 49ers by 10. Total: 46.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: 49ers -9.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 2): 49ers -10.
Sunday, Sept. 22, 4:25 ET
Discuss Week 3 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: 49ers.

If you haven’t made your Week 3 selection in the WalterFootball.com 2013 NFL Survivor Pool, make sure you do so. There are 1,694 players still remaining out of the original 2,580. Those who took the Chiefs and Packers are in the lead because of margin of victory. The Eagles knocked the most people out.

To see a report of how many teams are being picked for survivor this week, click here.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Jim Irsay took to Twitter a week ago and demanded protection for his franchise quarterback. He didn’t get it. Instead, he lost starting guard Donald Thomas to a season-ending torn quad.

I have no idea how the Colts are going to shield Andrew Luck from San Francisco’s ferocious front seven. The 49ers sacked the elusive Russell Wilson four times last week, and they trailed throughout. If they jump out to a lead, Luck doesn’t stand a chance in the pocket.

Also concerning Luck, head coach Jim Harbaugh knows his tendencies better than anyone, having coached him at Stanford. He’ll undoubtedly help his coaches build a great blueprint for stopping him. Of course, it makes it easy that Harbaugh has one of the most dynamic defenses in the NFL on his side.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: As bad as this matchup is for the Colts’ offense, it’s even worse for the defense. Indianapolis’ stop unit is probably the worst the league has to offer. They were completely inept versus Terrelle Pryor (who was limited versus Jacksonville) and then couldn’t get past Miami’s patchwork offensive line. How the hell are they going to handle Colin Kaepernick?

I feel like the 49ers will be able to do whatever they please in this contest. Their offensive line will push the Colts around in the trenches, opening up holes for Frank Gore, who will rebound. Kaepernick will use this to his advantage, as he’ll convert short-yardage situations into big gains. Indianapolis’ secondary and linebackers can’t cover Anquan Boldin and Vernon Davis like the Seahawks just did.

RECAP: I’m not going to bet this game because there are some great trends going against San Francisco, but I do think the host is the right side. I suppose there’s some backdoor potential here – especially if Harbaugh chooses not to run up the score on his former quarterback and offensive coordinator – but there’s no doubt that the 49ers should be able to win in a blowout.

TRENT RICHARDSON UPDATE: The Colts traded for Trent Richardson – click for my grades for the Colts and Browns. I don’t think this number will change very much. Richardson won’t have a great impact this week because he won’t be able to practice with his new team very much. The difference will be seen two, three, four weeks from now – and especially after the bye.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This is a tough game to handicap. Will the 49ers have one eye on the Rams, whom they battle on Thursday following a short work week? Then again, I’m sure Harbaugh will have a great game plan in store against Luck.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 58% (41,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

Andrew Luck is 5-0 ATS off a loss.

49ers are 10-4 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5+ under Jim Harbaugh.

Jim Harbaugh is 4-2 ATS following a loss.

Opening Line: 49ers -10.5.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: .

Week 3 NFL Pick: 49ers 41, Colts 27
49ers -10 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 46.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Colts 27, 49ers 7

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2) at Seattle Seahawks (2-0)
Line: Seahawks by 19. Total: 40.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -16.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 2): Seahawks -18.
Sunday, Sept. 22, 4:25 ET
Discuss Week 3 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Seahawks.

If you didn’t catch it, Emmitt on the Brink is back! Season 6, Episode 2 has been posted – Will Riley Cooper and Chris Culliver receive further punishment for their most recent controversial statements?

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: OK, so rather delving into this matchup and convincing you that the Seahawks own every edge in this contest, I’m just going to bunch everything together into two paragraphs. The Jaguars are the worst team in the NFL, and it isn’t even close. Chad Henne’s not a functional quarterback without former offensive coordinator Greg Olson coaching him up. Thanks to Henne’s ineptitude, the Jaguars went 35 minutes without a first down at Oakland. The Seahawks have a defense that is infinitely superior to Oakland’s, so Jacksonville may not achieve a first down in this entire contest – especially if Maurice Jones-Drew is limited. Jones-Drew did not practice Wednesday because of a foot injury.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: Despite playing two teams – the Chiefs and Raiders – who aren’t very offensively efficient, the Jaguars currently rank dead last versus the run (5.81 YPC). It’s not like they had to worry about Alex Smith and Terrelle Pryor consistently torching them downfield, so the fact that they couldn’t wrap up the opposing backs while concentrating on them is disconcerting. They’ll have to be worried about Russell Wilson. The Seahawks can move the chains much more effectively than Kansas City and Oakland, so the Jaguars, who don’t have much of a pass rush, won’t be able to stop them.

RECAP: You may have seen some dubious trends going around that say to fade giant favorites. Since 1989, teams laying 19 points or more are just 4-11 against the spread. That means the Jaguars are the play, right?

Not so fast. Looking at this closer, four of the spread losses belonged to the 2007 Patriots, who had an awful defense that kept the opposition in the game. Two other spread losses came in December, where the big favorite wasn’t trying as hard because it has already wrapped up a playoff spot. So, suddenly, 4-5 ATS doesn’t seem so bad.

I’m not going to bet on this, but I like the Seahawks. I just feel like there’s just too much of a talent disparity for Jacksonville to stay competitive.

SURVIVOR PICK: Go here for my Survivor Pick Advice later tonight for some analysis. I’m taking Seattle this week.

FINAL THOUGHTS: For those who think Pete Carroll will run up the score, he may not do so against his former defensive coordinator, Gus Bradley. Then again, the Jaguars will have difficulty scoring more than three points.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 56% (39,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

Jaguars are 9-15 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2007.

Jaguars are 16-34 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Seahawks are 19-4 ATS in September home games since 2000.

Seahawks are 20-6 ATS as home favorites since 2007.

Opening Line: Seahawks -16.5.

Opening Total: 40.

Weather: .

Week 3 NFL Pick: Seahawks 27, Jaguars 0
Seahawks -19 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 40 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Survivor Pick (2-0)
Seahawks 45, Jaguars 17

Buffalo Bills (1-1) at New York Jets (1-1)
Line: Jets by 2.5. Total: 41.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Jets -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 2): Jets -2.5.
Sunday, Sept. 22, 4:25 ET
Discuss Week 3 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: None.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for Sept. 16, 2013 is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is the second part of the Best Buy Trilogy: Confrontation Friday.

Also, you may have noticed that I haven’t posted a pick in a while. That’s because of the Trent Richardson trade. Click the link for grades for the Browns and Colts, as well as reactions from pissed-off Cleveland fans.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: E.J. Manuel put together a great, game-winning drive against the Panthers to claim his first NFL victory. However, he did this versus a banged-up secondary that lost four key members to injury during the contest. Manuel also was responsible for two turnovers that very half. Now, he has to play on the road for the first time against a tough stop unit that is actually healthy.

I expect Rex Ryan to have some tricks up his sleeve for the rookie signal-caller. The Jets are fourth versus the pass; they did a great job against Tom Brady last Thursday night. Granted, it was a short week and the rookie wideouts screwed up a ton, but Brady was still rattled at times. If Ryan could get to Brady, I’m sure he’ll screw up Manuel’s rhythm.

The Jets also happen to be fourth versus the run, which is key because the Bills have a dynamic duo at running back in C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson. Spiller wasn’t much of a factor in Week 1 because of an early fumble, but he rebounded nicely versus a stout Carolina front seven. Having said that, Spiller has his work cut out for him, as the Jets limited Doug Martin and the Buccaneers to 65 rushing yards on 24 carries in the opener.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: There’s some talk this week that the Jets are thinking about starting Matt Simms. As if they haven’t bungled the quarterback situation enough in recent years. Geno Smith needs confidence, so sitting him after one bad game against the Patriots on a short work week would be a disaster.

I like Smith’s chances in this game. He’s at home, and the Bills have a banged-up secondary. Santonio Holmes is getting healthier each week, so he should be a bigger factor in this contest than he’s been the past two weeks – especially after having nine days off.

The Bills have shown that they’re susceptible to the run. They’ve allowed 4.69 YPC, which makes them 27th versus the rush. Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell aren’t the most glamorous backs around, but they combined for 100 rushing yards on 25 attempts on Thursday. If they did that against the Patriots, I’m sure they can exceed that total when battling Buffalo.

RECAP: The Bills are in a tough spot, as they happen to be divisional underdogs following a close victory as a home underdog. However, the books may have that in mind because this line is exactly where I think it should be. I favor the Jets just a bit. I’ll take them for one unit.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Still going with the Jets for a unit.

FINAL THOUGHTS II: I want to drop this to zero units. I don’t want to lay points with Geno Smith.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.

The public loves E.J. Manuel in this matchup.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 69% (11,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Jets have won 8 of the last 10 meetings.

Jets are 8-12 ATS in September home games since 2000 (4-2 since in 2009).

Opening Line: Jets -2.

Opening Total: 39.

Weather: .

Week 3 NFL Pick: Jets 19, Bills 13
Jets -2.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 41 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Jets 27, Bills 20

Chicago Bears (2-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (0-2)
Line: Bears by 1.5. Total: 40.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Bears -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 2): Bears -1.
Sunday, Sept. 22, 8:30 ET
Discuss Week 3 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Bears.

I used to love making fun of GameCenter comments. The people on there were such idiots. There were even perverts like Aaron3619, who always asked chicks for their pictures so that he could carry them around. I actually met my ex-girlfriend, Awesome Girl Who Loves Football, this way. We exchanged e-mails about Aaron3619 and then hit it off, ultimately meeting in July 2012.

I planned to mess with Aaron3619 as a fake user named TexasGirl1234, but NFL.com shut down its GameCenter and implemented Facebook comments instead. This enraged me, so get revenge, I made a fake Facebook account named Mario Migelini to troll people. Other readers followed suit and made fake accounts of their own.

I’ve added a second fake account this year – Vivian Williamson. This is based off of Miss Vivian, a security guard at the Philadelphia International Airport, whom I’ve written about in Jerks of the Week (click the link to read about her).

Go here to see all of the NFL.com Troll Posts from myself and other trollers.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Steelers’ offense is so dreadful. Their pass protection is incredibly suspect, and even on the rare occasions when Ben Roethlisberger gets time in the pocket, he has no one to throw to because no one outside of Antonio Brown can get any separation. Pittsburgh struggled to move the chains at Cincinnati – the team had minus-2 yards in the third quarter – and should have similar problems against a stingy Chicago defense.

Here are some issues for the Steelers: Left tackle Mike Adams is going to have a very difficult time trying to block Julius Peppers. The same goes for the interior of the offensive line with Henry Melton. And how are Emmanuel Sanders and Jerricho Cotchery supposed to get open versus Peanut Tillman and Tim Jennings? I’m not sure why the Steelers aren’t utilizing rookie wideout Markus Wheaton more often. How is having Cotchery on the field more beneficial?

I can say the same thing concerning Isaac Redman with Jonathan Dwyer and/or Felix Jones. Redman might be one of the worst running backs in the entire NFL, yet the Steelers keep using him as their prominent rusher. Both Dwyer and Jones are better options than Redman, yet offensive coordinator Todd Haley is too stupid and stubborn to see things differently. Why did they fire Bruce Arians for this guy again?

CHICAGO OFFENSE: The Steelers’ defense is not what it used to be. The team used to always be among the league leaders in terms of getting to the quarterback. They have just one sack this season, which ties the Vikings for last place in that department. Considering the Bears have improved their front line – the unit has permitted just one sack through two contests – they definitely have the advantage in the trenches.

The Bears’ line will clear open holes for Matt Forte. This will help the well-protected Jay Cutler, who has more weapons than ever in Chicago. Cutler should have tons of success in this matchup, as the Steelers’ defense is an aging unit that has multiple liabilities. Safety Ryan Clark, 35 in October, is not nearly the player he used to be. Inside linebacker Larry Foote is out with an injury, and his replacement, Vince Williams, hasn’t done a good job. Brett Keisel was pushed around in run support. These are just some examples of how Pittsburgh’s defense has regressed.

RECAP: The Steelers are terrible, but I have no desire to back an inconsistent Chicago team as a road favorite, especially when Pittsburgh is going to be completely desperate for a victory. I’d take the Bears with a gun to my head, but I don’t want to bet this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I don’t know how anyone can bet on the Steelers right now. The Bears aren’t appealing as a road favorite either.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Steelers.

Why would anyone bet on Pittsburgh?

Percentage of money on Chicago: 78% (30,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

Jay Cutler is 29-51 ATS if you exclude Monday Night Football.

Bears are 4-17 ATS after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games.

Ben Roethlisberger is 17-12 ATS as an underdog.

Mike Tomlin is 19-14 ATS after a loss.

Opening Line: Bears -1.5.

Opening Total: 38.5.

Weather: .

Week 3 NFL Pick: Bears 17, Steelers 13
Bears -1.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 40.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Bears 40, Steelers 23

Oakland Raiders (1-1) at Denver Broncos (2-0)
Line: Broncos by 15. Total: 49.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Broncos -16.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 2): Broncos -13.5.
Monday, Sept. 23, 8:30 ET
Discuss Week 3 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Broncos.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have Mike Tirico and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, annoying guys like Charles Davis and senile guys like Bob Greise. Here’s what it would sound like if those six clowns (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Denver, home of the Broncos. Tonight, the evil Raiders who beat my Eagles in the 1980 Super Bowl take on the Broncos. Guys, we normally go into great detail about the game we broadcast, but I’d like to welcome in a special guest. Tim Tebow has joined us in the booth!

Tebow: I’d like to thank my lord and savior Jesus Christ for giving me the opportunity to be in this booth with you guys tonight.

Reilly: Tim, I’ll have to admit, I have five posters of you in my bedroom. My mom told me to take them down because she says I’m too old to have posters of NFL players in my bedroom, but I always say, “Ma, Tim Tebow is my hero, so screw you.” I also have 25 posters of Michael Vick, 20 of LeSean McCoy and 15 of DeSean Jackson. I just ordered some posters of Chip Kelly. Tim, are you pissed that every NFL coach is stupid by not giving you a chance?

Tebow: You know, I don’t even try to think about that. I just spend my time thanking my lord and savior Jesus Christ for the opporunity to be able to thank my lord and savior Jesus Christ.

Emmitt: Tim Tebone, you also from the University of the Gata, like myselves. Do you feel like you disgracin’ the Gata Nation by not bein’ on a roster in the National Football of Conferences?

Tebow: Whether I’m disgracing the University of Florida or not, I’m happy to thank my lord and savior Jesus Christ for the opportunity to disgrace the University of Florida.

Tollefson: All right, enough with the pleasantries. Tim, we need to know: Are you a virgin?

Tebow: Yes, sir.

Tollefson: Tim, let me help you out here. To be an NFL quarterback, you need to forget all of that mechanics and football bulls*** they try teaching you. What you really need to do is kidnap some women, take off their clothes and force them to cook and clean your house. You’ll be an All Pro in no time.

Tebow: Thank you so much for your advice, sir.

Millen: Tim, don’t listen to that hooligan. You’re a good guy, Tim. Almost as good as everyone who has ever graced the Penn State football program. I admire you, Tim. Being a virgin is tough nowadays. Boy, if I were a virgin, I don’t think I could handle it. All of these 100-Percent USDA Men and kielbasas everywhere. Say, Tim, if you ever want to lose your virginity, why don’t you give me a call and we can set something up?

Tebow: Thank you so much, that would be an honor, sir.

Edwards: No need to thank! No need to be nice! That guy’s up to no good! He wants you Tim! Wants you bad! Wants you real bad! Wants you real real bad! Wants you real real real bad! Wants you real real real real bad! Wants you real real real real real bad! Wants you real real real real real real bad! Wants you real real… uhh… real… bad… real real… uhh…

Reilly: Shut up, you idiot! What is it, Bob, you look like you want to ask Tim a question?

Griese: Hey Tim, do you think you’re going to win a championship for the University of Florida this season?

Davis: Bob, Tim used to play for the University of Florida. Before that, he played at Nease High School. He was drafted in the first round by the Denver Broncos in 2010. He then spent two seasons with the Broncos before getting traded to the Jets. He then went to the Patriots, where he was cut in September. Tim also happens to be a Leo.

Reilly: Thank you, Captain Obvious, but I’m not sure why that last part was necessary. Last question, Tim. Do you hate Peyton Manning for stealing your job?

Tebow: I don’t hate anyone. I’m just grateful that my lord and savior Jesus Christ gave me the opportunity to meet a great man like Peyton.

Reilly: You don’t have to lie to me, Tim. I can tell you want to kill him just as much as I do because he plays my Eagles in a couple of weeks. We’ll strangle him in his sleep tonight, OK Tim? We’ll be back after a word from our local sponsors!

DENVER OFFENSE: Peyton Manning is unstoppable right now. He’s not throwing the football as well as he did earlier in the career – many NFL analysts have noted that his passes lack zip – but he’s never had this type of supporting cast. What are defenses supposed to do with Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, Eric Decker and Julius Thomas on the field?

Some defensive coordinator will have to figure this out, but it won’t be Oakland’s. The Raiders, who already had a dubious defensive situation to begin with, lost one of their top players, safety Tyvon Branch, to an ankle injury. Oakland needed all hands on deck to even have a shot versus Denver, but that is not the case.

The one hole in Denver’s scoring attack right now is at left tackle. Ryan Clady, one of the better blind-side protectors in this league, is out with a sprained foot. Oakland’s top defender, Lamarr Houston, has a big advantage over backup tackle Chris Clark. However, Manning releases the ball so quickly that it might not even matter.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: Terrelle Pryor was great in the opener, but looks can be deceiving. He simply took advantage of a clueless Indianapolis defense devoid of talent that never heard of setting the edge. He battled the Jaguars last week – a defense that made the Chiefs seem like they were the Greatest Show on Turf. However, Jacksonville did a better job of bottling up Pryor, limiting him to 15-of-24 passing for 126 passing yards and 50 more yards on the ground.

Now, Pryor goes up against a legitimate NFL defense for the first time in his career – and I expect the results to be disastrous for him. If the Broncos could force Eli Manning into four interceptions, what’s going to happen with Pryor, who has trouble reading defenses?

The Raiders were able to move the chains on the Jaguars thanks to Darren McFadden. The injury-prone back won’t have as much luck Monday night; the Broncos actually rank first versus the rush. They’ve limited the Baltimore and New York running backs – which includes Ray Rice and David Wilson – to a combined 81 rushing yards.

RECAP: All of the numbers and trends say to take the Raiders. For instance, road underdogs of 14.5-plus are 60-40 against the spread since 1989. Also, quarterbacks at home in September coming off two wins in which they threw zero interceptions are 0-20 versus the number since 1999.

That’s good stuff, but I’m not taking Oakland. This is just too big of a mismatch. The numerous trends will keep me from betting the Broncos, but Denver should be able to cover.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I don’t plan on betting this game, but if you do, put money down on the Broncos immediately because the public is going to push this number up to -17 or maybe even -18. Conversely, be patient if you like Oakland.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

No surprise that bettors are backing the Broncos.

Percentage of money on Denver: 75% (78,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

History: Road Team has won 8 of the last 10 meetings (Broncos last 3).

Raiders are 12-5 ATS as double-digit underdogs since 2008.

Peyton Manning is 11-5 ATS on Monday Night Football.

Opening Line: Broncos -14.5.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: .

Week 3 NFL Pick: Broncos 38, Raiders 19
Broncos -15 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 49 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Broncos 37, Raiders 21

Week 3 NFL Picks – Early Games
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Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Moneyline: Rams +165 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$50

Teaser: Ravens +7.5, Bills +8.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200

NFL Picks - Nov. 20

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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2024 Season Over-Under: 82-82-2, 50.0% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$740

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)