NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 2, 2014

NFL Picks (Preseason 2014): 8-7-1 (-$20)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2014): 8-8 (+$110)

NFL Picks (2014): 16-15-1 (+$90)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Sept. 15, 5:30 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 2 NFL Picks – Early Games

St. Louis Rams (0-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-1)
Line: Buccaneers by 5. Total: 37.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Buccaneers -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Rams -2 (if Hill plays).
Sunday, Sept. 14, 4:05 ET
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The Game. Edge: Rams.

THE ADVENTURES OF TOM BRADY’S HAIRCUTS

Remember when Tom Brady used to be the most clutch quarterback in the NFL? He had that epic drive against the Rams in the Super Bowl. He then engineered numerous other fourth-quarter comebacks, including one to defeat the Panthers two years later to claim his second Lombardi trophy. After he earned his third, there was a wide-spread belief that he would pass both Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw and eventually earn five or more total rings.

Well, Brady’s been stuck on three. He’s no longer clutch; in fact, he often melts down in the fourth quarters of big matchups. He seems to really care about some games – especially those involving Tim Tebow – but then he’s so lackadaisical in others.

So, what happened? The obvious answer is his wife. But more specifically, it’s the haircuts that his wife forces him into getting. It’s unknown to the media, but Brady’s haircuts are much more than just silly fashion statements; each haircut gives Brady a new persona. Including these two…

Oh, and this guy is making a guest appearance with his new Justin Bieber lesbian haircut:

Check out the newest chapter of the Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts.

ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: I think Week 1 overreactions are amusing. Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal have already eliminated the Rams from the playoffs. Squareish Rotoworld wrote a blurb saying that the Buccaneers were going to “tee” off on whichever quarterback started for the Rams. Remember long ago – I think it was five days – when St. Louis was considered a sleeper?

The Buccaneers couldn’t contain Derek Anderson, so people shouldn’t be so confident that they’ll be able to handle Shaun Hill or Austin Davis. Hill, despite playing poorly in the first half last week, is the better option. The Buccaneers have absolutely no pass rush outside of Gerald McCoy; former Bengal Michael Johnson was awful in his debut with Tampa. I don’t see why the defensive line would suddenly improve.

Tampa Bay did at least contain the run for the most part, limiting Carolina to 3.4 yards per carry. Zac Stacy is better than DeAngelo Williams, but not by a wide margin.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Josh McCown was almost as bad as both St. Louis quarterbacks in the opener, so why can’t the Rams “tee” off on him? Chris Long is out, but the Rams still have an exceptional pass-rushers. Tampa Bay’s offensive line, which features an injured Logan Mankins, probably won’t be able to handle Robert Quinn, Kendall Langford and Michael Brockers. They will make life difficult for McCown.

McCown, who will definitely face pressure, needs to focus on not throwing the ball as he’s getting tackled. It worked once against Carolina, but it hurt him miserably on a couple of occasions. The good news for McCown is that the Rams don’t have the greatest secondary, so Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans figure to get open.

Meanwhile, I wouldn’t expect much out of Doug Martin again. Martin, who is hobbled, has to battle a defensive front that limited Adrian Peterson and the Vikings to 3.6 yards per carry.

RECAP: The Rams are the obvious side for several reasons:

1. I mentioned this last week: Favorites playing prior to Thursday night have an awful track record of covering. Both the Steelers and Ravens failed to do so last week. Tampa battles Atlanta in four days.

2. Teams that lose the spread by 25-plus points usually cover. That applies to St. Louis. In non-divisional matchups, teams that lost the spread by 25-plus are a solid 56-23 ATS since 2002, provided they aren’t huge underdogs.

3. The Rams are just as good, if not better, than the Buccaneers. Had Tampa hosted Minnesota last week, it would’ve gotten blown out as well. The Buccaneers simply had the luxury of battling a Carolina team with a backup quarterback, a scrub offensive line and only one talented receiver. Everyone is overreacting to the St. Louis loss, so let’s take advantage of that.

4. The Six and Six Rule that I referenced in the Redskins-Jaguars write-up probably applies.

I’m going to bet three units on the Rams if Hill is available. I don’t trust Davis enough to go more than a unit, so stay tuned.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Hopefully there will be news about Hill on Sunday morning. Stay tuned.

SUNDAY ADJUSTMENTS: Austin Davis is starting. It seems like everyone is on the Buccaneers, but they are all completely ignoring the fact that Tampa plays in four days. The Buccaneers will not be focused for this matchup. I’m going with two units on St. Louis.

The Psychology. Edge: Rams.

The Buccaneers have a game on Thursday and may not be focused as a consequence.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.
This line isn’t posted yet in most places.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 62% (6,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Rams.

Jeff Fisher is 40-27 ATS as an underdog since 2006.

Rams are 24-38 ATS on grass since 2001.

Buccaneers are 11-27 ATS at home in the previous 38 instances.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -3.5.

Opening Total: 38.

Weather: .

Week 2 NFL Pick: Rams 16, Buccaneers 13
Rams +5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Under 37.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Rams 19, Buccaneers 17

Seattle Seahawks (1-0) at San Diego Chargers (0-1)
Line: Seahawks by 4.5. Total: 45.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Seahawks -3.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Seahawks -4.
Sunday, Sept. 14, 4:05 ET
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The Game. Edge: Seahawks.

I mentioned last week that I was going to save the feature on the worst announcers during the preseason for this week. These announcers are dreadful, yet so entertaining that they make preseason games watchable. I already discussed Ron Zappolo last week:

Ladies and gentlemen, I think I may have found the worst announcer in NFL history. His name Ron Zappolo, and he’s an old, mustachioed man who serves as the Broncos’ play-by-play guy. Zappolo seemed oblivious as to what was going on at times, saying things like, “There’s a timeout on the field; we’ll be back” when the first quarter concluded. And when John Lynch, the color analyst, called Montee Ball and Ronnie Hillman “thunder and lightning,” Zappolo responded with something along the lines of, “Oh, that’s a neat nickname!”

What made Zappolo really stand out was his pronunciation of Jadeveon Clowney. He called him “Jadaevius Clowney,” and he didn’t do it once. He said “Jadaevius Clowney” a whopping three times, even after Lynch said his name correctly, so it wasn’t even a slip of the tongue.

Zappolo then provided this tidbit: “The Texans could have went with a quarterback with the first pick in the draft. But they went with Jadaevius Clowney, which turned out to be a great pick.”

It turned out to be a great pick? How does he know what? “Jadaveius” Clowney hasn’t even played a regular season game yet! My theory is that Zappolo is from the future. He’s seen Clowney dominate, and he also knows that Clowney will eventually change his first name to Jadaevius.

Excluding Zappolo, here are the five worst preseason broadcasting gaffes:

5. The inept Lions’ announcers had issues saying Will Ta’ufo’ou’s name. Not that I completely blame them, but they came up with “Will Tialui” and “Will Tialuaya.” I’d like to know where the hell they got that “L” from because there’s no “L” in that name. They could at least put some effort into it.

Speaking of the Detroit analysts, here’s what a typical exchange sounded like:

“Here are tonight’s stats, brought to you by Wallside Windows, We can do that; we are the factory.”

“A good throw by Bortles. Allen Hurns advances past the first-down line. The first-down line is brought to you by Wallside Windows, We can do that; we are the factory.”

“This play is going to be under review, and the replay timeout is brought to you by Wallside Windows, We can do that; we are the factory.”

“That was a nice block by Will… Will… Tialauanalalala, who is brought to you by Wallside Windows, We can do that; we are the factory.”

I am not exaggerating. They literally said “brought to you by Wallside Windows, We can do that; we are the factory” a thousand times in this game. Wallside Windows can rot in hell as far as I’m concerned.

4. Here’s something strange from the Eagles’ sideline reporter. He had this to say before the game:

“All of the women saw these big men in the hotel, and they were thinking, ‘Who are these men?’ That’s what makes it great to be on the road for the first time in a season.”

Couldn’t agree more. Banging random groupies in hotels is what football is all about.

3. Football fans can be nerds. Here’s proof:

I don’t know who’s more pathetic: The one dork trying to high-five the cheerleaders, or the other, who is creepily filming them on his phone. At least the second nerd was able to have some “fun” with “himself” later that night.

2. I don’t know where they found the Vikings’ play-by-play guy, but if I had to guess, I’d say they borrowed him from the WWE. He sounded like a wrestling announcer, and he nearly gave me a heart attack when he shouted this at the top of his lungs as the teams kicked off:

“BOOM!!!!!! THE PRESEASON IS UNDERWAY!!!”

Here were some other things this man yelled incoherently throughout the telecast:

“LISTEN TO THE CROWD LETTING THE REFS HAVE IT!!!”

“WHAT’S THE OFFENSIVE LINE DOING!? IT’S TEDDY!”

“PASS INTERFERENCE RAAAIDDAASS!!!”

“IF THIS AUTUMN WIND IS A RAIDER, THIS SUMMER NIGHT IS A BRIDGEWATER!!!”

1. Check out what Cleveland’s broadcast came up with:

Lolwut. I’d like to replace those items with the following to make it more accurate:

– Win one of the first four games.
– Win one of the next four games.
– Win one of the next four games after that.
– Win one of the last four games.
– Depress the fan base every single year.

Now you’re playing like a Brown.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Seahawks are scary. They reached the Super Bowl last year without Russell Wilson even having Percy Harvin at his disposal. We saw how potent this offense can be with Harvin on the field when it sliced through Green Bay in the NFL season opener. The Packers were helpless to do anything to stop the Seattle scoring attack.

Do the Chargers have a chance of containing Seattle? Well, the betting public wouldn’t have you believe so, but San Diego has a better shot than Green Bay did because it has a better defense. The Chargers, as the awake people saw late Monday night, can get to the quarterback. Melvin Ingram and Dwight Freeney were already mainstays, while rookie Jeremiah Attaochu was very impressive. Seattle doesn’t have the best offensive line in the world, so there could be some opportunities here for the Chargers.

Of course, San Diego will have to worry about actually wrapping up Wilson, who is so incredibly elusive. Wilson will undoubtedly escape the pocket and make some plays. The Chargers also have to focus on Marshawn Lynch, though I trust their run defense a lot more than Green Bay’s.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: Arizona’s defense made life extremely difficult for Philip Rivers on Monday night. Rivers was constantly under siege, while his receivers were taken away by the team’s two excellent cornerbacks.

The Seahawks should be able to completely mimic the Cardinals’ game plan. Their secondary will eliminate Rivers’ downfield options, while their excellent pass rush will accumulate several sacks. It’s going to be a rough afternoon for Rivers. I wouldn’t count on the Chargers running the ball well either with Ryan Mathews and the other backs. They struggled to do so Monday night, averaging 2.2 yards per carry at Arizona. Seattle just put the clamps on Eddie Lacy, so it’ll treat Mathews and company similarly.

RECAP: This game will be great to watch, but I don’t want anything to do with it, betting-wise. The numbers say to take the Chargers, but I just can’t do that. The Seahawks just look so strong, and they’ve had extra time to prepare for this contest.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Matvei, my Las Vegas Hilton Supercontest partner, called this the “sharp-square” pick of the week. It’s obvious that all of the public is on Seattle, so the sharp-squares are automatically taking San Diego (as evidenced by what’s going on in the Supercontest). I wouldn’t bet either side.

SUNDAY ADJUSTMENTS: Nothing here has changed for me. The sharps are on the Chargers, which was expected. I’m not betting against the best team in football. Good luck if you do.

The Psychology. Edge: Chargers.
The Seahawks have the Broncos the following week, so they could be looking ahead.

The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.

So much money is on the Seahawks.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 76% (43,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

Seahawks are 21-32 ATS on the road since 2006 if they’re not coming off an away loss.

Opening Line: Seahawks -5.5.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: .

Week 2 NFL Pick: Seahawks 24, Chargers 17
Seahawks -4.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 45.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Chargers 30, Seahawks 21

Houston Texans (1-0) at Oakland Raiders (0-1)
Line: Texans by 3. Total: 40.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Texans -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Texans -1.5.
Sunday, Sept. 14, 4:25 ET
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The Game. Edge: Texans.

This is a reminder to get your pick in for the Survivor Pool. Of the 3,289 entries that began the year, only 1,960 remain because the Bears knocked a crap ton of people out. Ugh.

Also, check out our Fantasy Football Who to Start Weekly Rankings for weekly fantasy start-sit advice.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: No one’s talking about it, but this is a big revenge game for both Oakland quarterbacks. Matt Schaub wants to win because he was exiled from Houston after giving them the best years of his career. Derek Carr, meanwhile, will undoubtedly want to win because of how poorly his brother was treated when he was with the Texans.

The problem is that neither signal-caller is any good. Carr could be in the future, but he was atrocious in the opener. He refused to go downfield at all, settling for Matt Leinat- and Robert Griffin-esque checkdowns. Perhaps he can be Colonel Checkdown.

To be somewhat fair, the Jets’ offensive line made things difficult for Carr, as he barely had any time to throw. But with that in mind, how will this game be any different? Jadeveon Clowney is out, but J.J. Watt dominated Washington’s front last week. Whitney Mercilus and Brooks Reed also played well, while Clowney didn’t have much of an impact when he was in the game. Thus, Carr will have issues in the pocket once again, though Maurice Jones-Drew will actually have a bit of running room this week.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: Ryan Fitzpatrick is as mediocre as they come, but he was good enough last week. He should have a decent outing against the Raiders, who allowed Geno Smith to play well. If Smith can go 23-of-28 for 221 yards with a poor supporting cast against this dreadful defense, Fitzpatrick can post similar numbers with Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins at his disposal.

Arian Foster will be the most prominent player for the Texans in this game. The Raiders surrendered a ridiculous 7.3 yards per carry to the Jets in the opener, thanks to defenders inexplicably colliding with each other and filling the wrong gaps. If mediocre players like Chris Johnson and Chris Ivroy can succeed, I imagine Foster will approach the 200-yard barrier.

RECAP: I have zero interest in betting this game. I don’t want to lay points with the Texans on the road, and I definitely don’t want wager on the Raiders when they’re not playing another incompetent team. Gun to my head, Houston, but I’m not confident in that pick at all.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s some sharp action on the Texans, believe it or not. The Raiders are atrocious.

SUNDAY ADJUSTMENTS: Everyone is betting up Houston, but the books don’t want to move off -3. Don’t get involved in this one.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

No surprise the money is coming in on the Texans.

Percentage of money on Houston: 67% (20,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Texans -3.

Opening Total: 39.5.

Weather: .

Week 2 NFL Pick: Texans 20, Raiders 13
Texans -3 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 40 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Texans 30, Raiders 14

New York Jets (1-0) at Green Bay Packers (0-1)
Line: Packers by 7.5. Total: 46.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Packers -8.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Packers -12.
Sunday, Sept. 14, 4:25 ET
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The Game. Edge: Packers.

Emmitt on the Brink is back for Season 7! Emmitt is saved by two new friends in a zombie infestation. Stay tuned for next week’s episode on Friday.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Aaron Rodgers probably had the worst game he’ll have all year in the opener. He completed 23-of-33 passes, but for only 189 yards, one touchdown and an interception. Many things contributed to this. Two of his offensive linemen being hurt – center J.C. Tretter before the game and tackle Bryan Bulaga during it – didn’t help matters, and neither did the crazy crowd noise, but the biggest factor was Seattle’s defense, which made things very difficult for Rodgers.

I’d say one-and-a-half of those issues will be resolved in this contest. The crowd noise obviously won’t be there, but the two linemen are still hurt. As for the half, the Jets have a ferocious defensive line that will put pressure on Rodgers. The thing is, their secondary is nothing compared to Seattle’s. It couldn’t prove itself against the Raiders because Derek Carr was throwing nothing but checkdowns, but Rodgers will be able to expose those liabilities.

The Jets will at least keep Eddie Lacy in check. Lacy had a terrific preseason, but he’s had the misfortune of opening his 2014 campaign against two stalwart run defenses. The Seahawks are awesome, while New York didn’t allow Maurice Jones-Drew to do anything last week. Lacy is the better runner right now, but I don’t see the Packers blasting open big holes for him against the Jets’ front.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: As mentioned in the previous write-up, Geno Smith torched Oakland’s defense this past Sunday. The Raiders have a terrible stop unit, but Green Bay’s isn’t any better. Thus, Smith should have a similar performance, right?

I’m not so sure. A couple of things: First, Smith had major issues maintaining success last year. He’d play well one week and then he would be awful the next. Until I see otherwise, I’m going to assume this trend will continue. And second, Smith had the luxury of being ahead or just a bit behind against the Raiders. What’ll happen if the Packers go up two touchdowns, and Smith can no longer rely on his rushing attack?

Speaking of the ground game, Chris Johnson and Chris Ivory could run well if given the chance. I normally wouldn’t say that about two mediocre players, but the Packers looked so helpless trying to stop Marshawn Lynch last week.

RECAP: Packers, fairly big. Here’s why:

1. I wrote this on the other page, but Rodgers is 6-2 against the spread as a home favorite of 7.5 points or more following a loss. I trust elite quarterbacks coming off a defeat.

2. Good teams like the Packers tend to rebound with a victory following a loss in Week 1. They’ll be extremely focused for the Jets, and they’ve had more time to prepare.

3. I don’t think this spread is high enough. I have the Packers at -12 as my calculated line, so we’re getting four points of value according to my numbers.

4. The Packers are usually an automatic bet at home. They’re 22-11 at Lambeau since 2010. I don’t trust Geno Smith to play well here.

5. Speaking of Smith, he had a crazy on-off dichotomy last year. I don’t see why that would suddenly change.

I’m not a fan of the public being on the same side as me, but I still think the Packers are a good bet. I’m taking them for three units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: A bit of sharp play on the Jets. It’s a good thing Vegas won a ton of money last week; otherwise I’d be a slight bit concerned. The Packers should win easily.

SUNDAY ADJUSTMENTS: If you want to bet the Packers, wait until a few minutes before kickoff. You might be able to get -7.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.

The public expects the Packers to rebound.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 73% (34,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

Packers are 22-11 ATS at home since 2010.

Aaron Rodgers is 48-28 ATS since 2009 (8-4 ATS as a favorite of 12+).

Aaron Rodgers is 14-4 ATS after a loss (7-3 ATS as a favorite of 7.5+).

Opening Line: Packers -8.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: .

Week 2 NFL Pick: Packers 34, Jets 20
Packers -7.5 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Over 46 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Survivor Pick (0-1)
Packers 31, Jets 24

Kansas City Chiefs (0-1) at Denver Broncos (1-0)
Line: Broncos by 12.5. Total: 50.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Broncos -10.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Broncos -9.
Sunday, Sept. 14, 4:25 ET
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The Game. Edge: Broncos.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is Befriending Those Who Want to Kill Me.

DENVER OFFENSE: What the hell happened to Peyton Manning in the second half of that Sunday night game? He was on fire prior to intermission, but was just 6-of-14 for 70 yards after it. I don’t want to hear that the Colts made great adjustments or anything because they don’t have a good defense, and Manning missed simple throws anyway. Some believe that Manning and the Broncos point shaved, and I could see it. Denver fans better hope that’s the case because the alternative was that Manning was showing signs of decline at 38.

Manning had to be happy when he saw that the Chiefs lost two starting defenders to torn Achilles. Mike DeVito and Derrick Johnson are both done for the year, meaning Kansas City’s run defense will be pretty soft. Montee Ball looked like a typical Big Ten plodder last week, but he should be able to pick up big chunks of yardage in this contest.

Having Ball be successful on the ground will be key for Manning, as Kansas City’s pass rush is still prevalent. Tamba Hali and Justin Houston form one of the top pass-rushing tandems in the NFL, but they’ll be partly nullified if Manning is constantly operating in short-yardage situations.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Dwayne Bowe and Jamaal Charles were both out last week, so having them back will be a huge boost for Alex Smith. Wait, hold on. I thought I was Andy Reid for a second. That would explain why I’m holding three cheeseburgers in my hand. Reid, for whatever reason, gave Charles only 11 touches in the opener. His creative game plan of not giving the ball to his best player backfired quite epically.

Charles will get more carries and catches in this contest, while Bowe will actually be a receiving threat that Smith lacked against the Titans. Smith had success versus Denver’s defense last year, but the problem is that the Broncos greatly bolstered their stop unit with some great signings like DeMarcus Ware and T.J. Ward.

I wouldn’t expect much out of the Chiefs’ scoring attack. We’ll see the same B.S. – short passes to Charles, Bowe, Donnie Avery, etc., and some Smith scrambles – but I don’t think Kansas City will be able to sustain many drives.

RECAP: The public pounded the Broncos up to -13. I wouldn’t bet that way. I’m not going to have a wager on this game, but if I did, I would take the Chiefs. Thirteen is just too many points for Denver to be laying versus a competent, albeit hobbled divisional opponent. Denver’s offense will not be the same this year, as evidenced in the opener, so I have a feeling that I’ll be going against them quite often when they’re favored by a ridiculous amount.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The public bet this up, and then the sharps pounded it back down. The Chiefs have so many injuries; I just don’t see how they can be very functional.

SUNDAY ADJUSTMENTS: I have no interest in this game. The Chiefs are probably the right side, but they’re a mess.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.

Who is betting the Chiefs in this matchup?

Percentage of money on Denver: 68% (32,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: .

History: Home Team has won 18 of the last 26 meetings (Broncos have won the last 5).

Chiefs are 14-6 ATS as a double-digit underdog since 2006.

Andy Reid is 11-5 ATS as an underdog of 6.5 or more since 2000.

Opening Line: Broncos -12.5.

Opening Total: 52.

Weather: .

Week 2 NFL Pick: Broncos 27, Chiefs 17
Chiefs +12.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 50 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Broncos 24, Chiefs 17

Chicago Bears (0-1) at San Francisco 49ers (1-0)
Line: 49ers by 7. Total: 47.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : 49ers -6.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: 49ers -10.5.
Sunday, Sept. 14, 8:30 ET
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The Game. Edge: 49ers.

I used to love making fun of GameCenter comments. The people on there were such idiots. There were even perverts like Aaron3619, who always asked chicks for their pictures so that he could carry them around.

I planned to mess with Aaron3619 as a fake user named TexasGirl1234, but NFL.com shut down its GameCenter and implemented Facebook comments instead. This enraged me, so get revenge, I made a fake Facebook account named Mario Migelini to troll people. Other readers followed suit and made fake accounts of their own.

Go here to see all of the NFL.com Troll Posts from myself and other trollers.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Wow, Bears. I understand not being able to stop Buffalo’s offense, but scoring just 20 points on a defense missing Kiko Alonso, Stephon Gimore and Jairus Byrd is just pathetic.

Jay Cutler was terrible against the Bills. He made some great throws, but also had one too many trademark Cutler #yolo throws – across his body, into double coverage, late over the middle, etc. – that almost never go well. The 49ers’ defense, which is very opportunistic – as Tony Romo discovered last Sunday – will be ready to snag more interceptions.

The 49ers do have some defensive issues though. Thanks to some missing personnel, they’re not very good against the run, so the Bears should try to keep the ball in Matt Forte’s hands as much as possible. Forte will have success, and more importantly, Cutler won’t be able to hurl dumb picks if he’s not attempting many passes.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The problem for Cutler is that his defense can’t get off the field, so he’s antsy on the sideline. His stop unit is an abomination and will struggle in every single game this year. Save for Lamarr Houston, and Jay Ratliff, not one player on the defense performed well against the Bills, who own one of the worst offenses in the NFL.

If the Bills were able to tally close to 200 rushing yards versus Chicago, imagine what Frank Gore and Carlos Hyde will do. The two runners averaged 4.5 yards per carry at Dallas last week, and the Bears are somehow even worse against the run.

Perhaps the biggest surprise for the 49ers last week was how Colin Kaepernick performed. Kaepernick struggled mightily in the preseason, but didn’t show any signs of regression in the opener, as he cut through Dallas with ease. Granted, the Cowboys have an anemic secondary, but it’s not like Chicago’s defensive backfield is any better. If the Bears couldn’t contain E.J. Manuel, imagine what a quarterback who’s actually talented will do.

RECAP: The 49ers are unveiling their new stadium in this game. I hate that. Teams opening up new stadiums have struggled in the past, but I think the 49ers are somewhat safe. They’re the far superior team, and they’ll have Circadian rhythms aiding them as the night goes on. San Francisco, who should be favored by 10.5 instead of seven, is worth a small wager.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I wouldn’t bet heavily on the 49ers because people will be pounding them to either win back their winnings or double up. I still think they’re the right side though.

SUNDAY NOTES: Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery are “75 percent” likely to miss this game, according to Adam Schefter. If you like the 49ers, bet this spread now before it rises once the public wakes up and catches on.

SUNDAY NIGHT: This spread didn’t rise in most places. It’s -7 almost everywhere, though if you like the Bears, you can get them at +8 on Bovada. I still like San Francisco, but keep in mind that the public is pounding the host right now.

The Psychology. Edge: Bears.

The 49ers could be distracted with everything surrounding the opening of their new stadium.

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.

Two-thirds action on the host.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 69% (32,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

Jay Cutler is 31-58 ATS if you exclude Monday Night Football.

49ers are 13-7 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5+ under Jim Harbaugh.

49ers are 36-17 ATS as favorites in night games since 1989.

Opening Line: 49ers -7.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: .

Week 2 NFL Pick: 49ers 34, Bears 23
49ers -7 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Over 47 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Bears 28, 49ers 20

Philadelphia Eagles (1-0) at Indianapolis Colts (0-1)
Line: Colts by 3. Total: 53.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Colts -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Colts -6.5.
Monday, Sept. 15, 8:30 ET
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The Game. Edge: Colts.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have Mike Tirico and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, complete morons like Ron Zappolo, and mindless automatons like Dan Fouts. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven clowns (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the state of Indianapolis where my beloved Eagles will crush the stupid Colts like tissue paper. I know that my producers told me to stop being a homer, but f*** them! My Eagles are playing right now, and if my Eagles don’t win, I’m going to take a gun and shoot someone right in the face! You hear that!? Someone’s going to die tonight if my Eagles don’t win!

Emmitt: Mark, I do not think it is good ideas to stab someone in the back with the gun. First of all, if you kill somebody, he gonna die. Third of all, if you kill someone, you gonna go to jail when some guy gonna stick his manhood into your backside.

Millen: Did you just say sticking manhoods into backsides? What is this place again? How do I get in?

Edwards: YOU DON’T WANT TO GO TO THAT PLACE! YOU DON’T WANT TO GO! OH NO, YOU DON’T WANT TO GO! GOING’S NOT GOOD! THAT’S A BAD IDEA! NOT A GOOD IDEA! NOT A GREAT IDEA! NOT A TERRIFIC IDEA! THE OTHER WAY! WHY AM I GOING MORE POSITIVE!? SHOULD BE GOING MORE NEGATIVE! LOTS MORE NEGATIVE! IT’S NOT AN ABOVE-AVERAGE PLACE! NOT AN AVERAGE PLACE EITHER! NOW HERM’S GOING THE RIGHT WAY! HE’S GOING THE RIGHT DIRECTION! GOING THE RIGHT WAY! IT’S NOT A SUB-PAR PLACE! NOT A PAR PLACE EITHER! UH OH, NOW HERM’S GOING THE WRONG DIRECTION AGAIN! HERM’S GOING THE WRONG DIRECTION! HERM’S GOING THE WRONG WAY! SOMEBODY STOP HERM BEFORE HE GOES TOO FAR! SOMEONE STOP HIM! SOMEONE STOP HIM NOW! IT’S NOT A GREAT PLACE! NOW HERM’S GONE TOO FAR! Herm… uhh…

Reilly: Herm, you f***ing c**k-sucker, shut the f*** up, I’m trying to watch a game here!

Millen: Sorry to interject here, but can someone provide me with more info on where I can go to get manhoods into my backside? I had this happen to me in last night’s kielbasa session at the hotel, but finding men to come back to the hotel with me is a challenge, only because 100-percent USDA men are very rare.

Tollefson: I, for one, wouldn’t want to go to prison. Did you know there are no naked women who cook and clean for you there? What kind of place is that?

Fouts: I’ll tell you what kind of place it is. It’s a building. A very large building. And there are bars. Lots of bars. There are men there. Lots of men. And they are behind bars. Lots of men behind bars. So, there are lots of bars and lets of men. You put them together, and you have lots of men behind lots of bars. And they’re all in this very large building. But that’s not all. There are lots of guards there, too. And they’re not behind bars. So, you have lots of guards not behind bars, and you have lots of men, who are not guards, behind these bars, and they are all in this very large building, all at the same time.

Reilly: What are you, a f***ing retard, Fouts? Ugh, I think it’s time for Zappolo to be the play-by-play guy. F***ing producer idiots not realizing how great my Eagles are.

Zappolo: Thanks, Mike! Today’s game has Nick Perez and the Philadelphia Warriors taking on Eli Manning and the Indianapolis Firedragons. Guys, the Warriors are making a playoff push behind Perez, so how will the Firedragons stop him?

Edwards: WHAT THE HELL ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT!? HERM DOESN’T UNDERSTAND WHAT YOU’RE TALKING ABOUT! HERM DOESN’T UNDERSTAND! HERM DOESN’T COMPUTE!

Zappolo: Thanks, Jeff! The Warriors certainly have their hands full with their defense, led by Eduardo James. Will the Firedragons be able to rally behind James and shut the Warriors down?

Edwards: HERM DOESN’T KNOW WHAT’S GOING ON! HERM IS AT A LOSS! HERM IS LOST! HELP HERM! HERM NEEDS HELP!

Reilly: I never thought I’d say this because Herm is a f***tard, but what the f*** are you talking about Zappolo? Who the f*** is Eduardo James?

Zappolo: Thanks, guys! We’ll be back after halftime!

Reilly: Halftime!? This game hasn’t even started yet! You f***ing piece of s***, shut the f*** up! We’ll be back after this!

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: It was strange to see Andrew Luck fall short of a comeback Sunday night. Once the Broncos stopped scoring and Luck got into a rhythm, I thought it was all but certain that Luck was at least going to tie the game. Then again, Luck was battling a very potent defensive unit that was injected with several upgrades this offseason.

Philadelphia’s defense isn’t nearly as good. The unit couldn’t stop Chad Henne and Allen Hurns, for crying out loud. There are holes in the secondary, particularly cornerback Cary Williams and new safety Malcolm Jenkins, who will turn out to be a bust signing. DeMeco Ryans can’t cover either. The Eagles got their act together versus Jacksonville in the second half, but containing Andrew Luck and his three skilled receivers is a completely different animal.

The Eagles will have to rattle Luck in the pocket. Indianapolis’ offensive line isn’t very good, so there’s a good chance that Fletcher Cox and Trent Cole will play well once again. However, the Eagles will have to account for Luck’s mobility. They didn’t have to worry about Henne running around at all, but Luck is obviously capable of picking up big gains with his feet.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: As poorly as the Eagles’ defense played, the scoring unit was in much worse shape. The offense put a doughnut on the scoreboard in the first half. Sure, it posted 27 points in the second half, but it needed skilled safety John Cyprien to get injured. Once Cyprien went out, there were breakdowns in coverage, which would explain why Jeremy Maclin was so wide open for that one long touchdown.

Fortunately for Nick Foles and his supporting cast, the Colts don’t have as talented of a stop unit as Jacksonville does. The Jaguars get great pressure on the quarterback – Philadelphia’s offensive line struggled in the opener – but the Colts are incapable of doing that because Robert Mathis is out. Indianapolis is also mediocre when it comes to stopping the run, which could spell big trouble against LeSean McCoy and Darren Sproles.

The Colts are strong in one area though. They cover pretty well on one side, thanks to Vontae Davis, who performed well in the opener. Davis should be able to take Maclin away, which is significant this year because Foles doesn’t have many other downfield options. He’ll have to work the middle with his tight ends again, though he missed Zach Ertz and Brent Celek on numerous occasions when playing Jacksonville.

RECAP: The Colts are one of my top two plays of the week. Several reasons:

1. Indianapolis is the better team, and it’s not favored by nearly enough. I have the Colts at -6.5 as my projected number, so we’re getting great value.

2. Back on the early games page, I mentioned that Luck is 10-0 against the spread following a loss, including 6-0 ATS as a favorite.

3. Luck also maintains a terrific home record; he’s 13-4 against the spread at the Drum.

4. Speaking of the Drum, it’ll be rocking. This is Indianapolis’ first Monday night game in the Luck era. Luck and his teammates will be out to prove themselves.

5. As crazy as it sounds to say it this early, the Colts need this game much more than the Eagles do. With a loss, they’ll fall two games back behind the Titans and Texans (both teams are favored on Sunday). The Eagles, meanwhile, could probably win the sorry NFC East with a 7-9 record.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’ve seen nothing that changes my mind about this game. I still like the Colts a lot. They have to avoid an 0-2 start to avoid going down two in the division. There’s a bit of sharp action on the Eagles and slight public money on Indianapolis, but none of that is drastic enough to affect the result.

The Psychology. Edge: Colts.

This is Indianapolis’ first Monday night home game in the Andrew Luck era. The Colts and their fans will be pumped.

The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.
Slight lean on the Colts.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 62% (70,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts.

Andrew Luck is 9-0 ATS off a loss.

Andrew Luck is 13-4 ATS at home.

Opening Line: Colts -2.5.

Opening Total: 52.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 2 NFL Pick: Colts 34, Eagles 27
Colts -3 (4 Units) — Incorrect; -$440
Over 53 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
~~Officials~~ Eagles 30, Colts 27

Week 2 NFL Picks – Early Games
Pittsburgh�at�Baltimore, Miami�at�Buffalo, Atlanta�at�Cincinnati, New Orleans�at�Cleveland, Dallas�at�Tennessee, New England�at�Minnesota, Arizona�at�NY Giants, Jacksonville�at�Washington, Detroit�at�Carolina

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser: Lions +8.5, Packers -1.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110

Moneyline Underdog: Jaguars +225 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$50

Moneyline Underdog: Falcons +205 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$50

Moneyline Underdog: Rams +205 (0.5 Units) — Correct; +$100

NFL Picks - Nov. 23

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

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2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
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2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
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2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
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2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

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2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
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2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
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2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
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2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
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2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)