NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 8, 2023

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-3) at Buffalo Bills (4-3)
Line: Bills by 10. Total: 43.
Thursday, Oct. 26, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

Week 7 Analysis: I shouldn’t complain about a winning week, but there was one game that crushed us. We would have won close to 10 units had the stupid Cardinals covered. Instead, they whiffed on a 34-yard field goal and then did a stupid fake punt from midfield to blow the cover in the final minute. We’ve had the worst luck this year. I’ll once again break down all the 3+ unit picks each week:

Falcons, 3 units (win): The Falcons nearly blew this one, too, with three turnovers in the red zone. Two of the turnovers were at the Tampa 1-yard line! This game should not have come down to a game-winning field goal.

Ravens, 3 units (win): Loved this spot for the Ravens. If only handicapping were always this easy.

Giants, 3 units (win): Another easy game. The Redskins’ only points came off a Giants muffed punt.

Cardinals, 4 units (loss): This wasn’t as bad as the Patriots safety last week, but it still hurt. We would have won about nine units had the Cardinals just stayed within nine. Instead, they lost by 10 via a front-door field goal at the very end.

I want to include a new segment here, where I list “obvious” picks in hindsight that I did not bet:

Patriots +7.5 vs. Bills: I bet the Patriots heavily against the Cowboys. Loss. I bet the Patriots heavily against the Saints. Loss. I bet the Patriots very, very heavily against the Raiders. Loss. But of course they beat the Bills! This was the most obvious side of the week, but I talked myself out of it. I can only blame myself.

Chiefs -5.5 vs. Chargers: I thought there might be a back-door cover, but why would there be against a top-five defense? I liked the Chiefs, so I don’t know why I didn’t bet them.

If you haven’t visited the site in a while, you may have noticed the new look. Yes, after nearly two decades, we’ve finally re-designed our site to be more modern. This was not done on a whim, but rather out of necessity because of what occurred during the 2023 NFL Draft. Our site crashed during the entire first day of the draft, which was disastrous for our revenue stream because we make more money during the draft than any other time. The site crashed because a line of code conflicted with the old format of the site, so we had to transition to this new look.

Because we lost so much money during the draft, I want to point out that you can really help support the site by paying for the ad-free version of it at the top. It’s $7.99 per month, but you’ll get a super-fast site with no ads. If you don’t want to pay, please spread the word about the site through word of mouth. That would also be a big help!

BUFFALO OFFENSE: Following a loss in an emotional Monday night game to start the season, the Bills were an offensive buzzsaw. They tore through the Raiders and Redskins before absolutely thrashing the Dolphins. Everyone marveled at Miami’s 70-point output, yet the Bills outscored them by a wide margin just seven days later.

Things have certainly changed in the past few weeks. The Bills had trouble scoring against the Giants and the Patriots, nearly losing to the former and suffering a defeat to the latter. Josh Allen does not appear to be himself, which is the primary issue. Like in the second half of last year, Allen appears to be performing at a lesser level because he’s playing with an injury.

One piece of good news for the Bills is that the Buccaneers struggle to get to the quarterback, which would explain why they have the third-highest blitz rate in the NFL. Allen is great against the blitz, as he’s thrown six touchdowns to only one interception against it this year. He’s also completed 67.1 percent of his passes on a 7.4 YPA. Perhaps he’ll be able to connect frequently with Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis often unless he’s really banged up.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: It’s hard to say whether the Buffalo offense or defense is in worse shape right now. The Bills’ stop unit was once dominant as well, but that has also changed because of injury. In this case, it all started with Tre’Davious White getting hurt. Matt Milano then suffered an injury in London. DaQuan Jones and Ed Oliver have missed action since.

There are few defenses that could survive injuries to nearly half of their starters, including the top-level talent missing for Buffalo. Stopping the run has been a problem, but this isn’t necessarily something the Buccaneers can take advantage of, given how pedestrian their running game is. Rachaad White is one of the worst rushers among starting backs in the NFL.

Something the Bills still do well is rush the passer. They remain in the top five of pressure rate, which does not bode well for Baker Mayfield. The Buccaneers have a poor offensive line, so Mayfield will have trouble sustaining consistent drives, though Mike Evans and Chris Godwin will make some big plays against a depleted secondary.

RECAP: If you haven’t noticed, I like backing the better team in Thursday night games. This is because the weaker opponent doesn’t have enough time to construct an appropriate game plan to pull the upset. The numbers back that up. Double-digit favorites are 25-10 against the spread on Thursday. I know the Bills aren’t a double-digit favorite, but teams lined -7.5 to -9.5 are 25-20 ATS on Thursday for a cool 55.6 percent.

The question is, do the Bills deserve to be favored by this many points, given their recent struggles? It could be argued for that not to be the case, especially given all the injuries. Allen could be healthier this week, but then again, will that much change on just three days of rest? If the Bills had a regular week to make amends for what transpired last week, I’d be way more confident in them, but at this point, I just don’t know what to make of them.

I’m still going to side with the Bills here because we are getting a bit of a suppressed number – the advance spread was -9 – and I’m no fan of the Buccaneers, who would have been blown out last week had the Falcons not fumbled at their 1-yard line twice. However, I fear a potential back-door cover from the Buccaneers, given all of the holes on Buffalo’s defense. In short, I am not betting this game.

Our Week 8 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Buccaneers may not have Vita Vea, who is questionable after missing practice all three days. I’m still on Tampa for no units. The sharps haven’t taken a side yet.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s been some late, sharp money coming in on the Bills. I assume this is because of the Vita Vea absence. I still have concerns about Josh Allen’s health, so I can’t bring myself to bet the Bills, especially now that the line has risen to -10. The best line is -10 -103 at Bookmaker.

PLAYER PROP: I asked people on Twitter whom they thought would score the first touchdown, excluding Stefon Diggs. Most people said Dalton Kincaid, but Mike Evans somehow has better odds. Evans is 14/1 at DraftKings despite being 12/1 or worse elsewhere. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

New Orleans Saints (3-4) at Indianapolis Colts (3-4)
Line: Saints by 2.5. Total: 43.5.
Sunday, Oct. 29, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Saints.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Gardner Minshew was supposed to be the safe backup. When he took over for an injured Anthony Richardson, the Colts weren’t expected to skip a beat. Instead, they’ve debacled themselves with horrible turnovers. Minshew threw three interceptions against the Jaguars, then committed three more turnovers versus the Browns, including a strip-sack fumble in the end zone that resulted in a Cleveland defensive touchdown.

Minshew’s two opponents since the Richardson injury have possessed top-10 defenses, but that also applies to New Orleans. The Saints have been able to place lots of pressure on the opposition this year, so that will obviously hinder Minshew, who had immense difficulty dealing with Cleveland’s pass rush last week. Another problem for Minshew is that Marshon Lattimore will blanket Michael Pittman Jr. Minshew will have to rely on Josh Downs, who has a much more favorable matchup.

Jonathan Taylor doesn’t have a very good matchup either. However, he’s talented enough where he can break through a tough run defense and generate decent yardage. Taylor wasn’t quite himself upon returning from his holdout, but he’s gotten better each week.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: There’s been some turmoil amongst the Saints lately, with Derek Carr blaming teammates for horrible passes thrown out of play, and Chris Olave being arrested for driving 35 mph over the speed limit. As my friend Alex put it, Olave missed a golden opportunity to blame Carr for this arrest.

Assuming the Saints don’t suspend their top receiver or anything, Olave should be able to take advantage of a great matchup. The Colts struggle against No. 1 receivers, so Olave figures to thrive. Amari Cooper just struggled, but that was more of Phillip Walker being too incompetent to get the ball to him. I’m sure Carr and Olave will figure out a way to correct matters with extra time off from the last game.

Alvin Kamara also figures to perform at a high level. The Colts used to be stout versus the run, but they lost mammoth defensive tackle Grover Stewart to a suspension. They’re now just 17th against the rush. Kamara who looks like his pre-2022 self, will pick up where he left off Thursday night.

RECAP: There’s a negative sentiment regarding the Saints right now even though they rank highly in the metrics. They’re 10th in net EPA, thanks to their fifth-ranked defense. They aren’t regarded highly because of two consecutive defeats to the Texans and Jaguars, but those were understandable losses. The Saints actually outgained the Texans in net yardage and yards per play. And losing to the Jaguars is nothing to be ashamed of because they’re a top 10 team.

The Colts are not in the top 10, so this is automatically an easier matchup. In fact, it’s quite favorable because Minshew is a backup quarterback going against an elite defense. I did the research last week, but backup signal-callers are just 12-20 against the spread versus top-12 defenses. Minshew has had two losses in such matchups, imploding versus the Jaguars and Browns with numerous turnovers in each game.

I’ll be backing the Saints here for a few units. I love the matchup, and I believe the wrong team is favored. I have the Saints projected to be -2, while the EPA metrics say New Olreans should be -3!

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m not sure why, but the sharps have jumped on the Colts. Maybe it’s because of Alvin Kamara’s illness (he missed Wednesday’s practice), or perhaps it’s Chris Olave’s arrest for reckless driving. Either way, I still like the Saints at the moment, but I’ll have no interest if Kamara is sidelined.

SATURDAY NOTES: Not only am I switching my pick, I’m also betting heavily on the Colts. Two reasons: First, the Saints have been hit hard by an illness. Even Dennis Allen is sick. We’ve seen teams really struggle when there’s an illness circulating the locker room; the Saints were even able to benefit from this last year versus the Raiders. Second, the Colts have been stricken with misleading results; they’ve outgained their previous two opponents in total yards and yards per play. I would ordinarily be concerned about Gardner Minshew versus a top defense, but the Saints won’t have a great defense if some players ar

PLAYER PROPS: I’m targeting Josh Downs in this game. The Saints have a great defense, but they’re very weak against slot receivers. We won with Christian Kirk props last week, so let’s keep it going with Downs. I like Downs to go over 47.5 receiving yards, with the best number being at -115 vig on DraftKings. I also bet Downs to score the first touchdown at 15/1, also found at DraftKings. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I was hoping to get a viable +3, but I can’t find one. The best line is +2.5 -108 at Bookmaker. The illness-stricken Saints will all play, but that doesn’t mean they’re healthy; it’s difficult to recover from the flu so quickly. The Colts could win easily if the Saints are so sluggish. The sharps are on Indianapolis.

Jacksonville Jaguars (5-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2)
Line: Jaguars by 2.5. Total: 41.
Sunday, Oct. 29, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides were 32-35-1 last year, and they are now 12-13 ATS.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

49ers -7

Bills -7.5

Chargers +5.5

The public lost both Sunday games and then got crushed Monday night. The sportsbooks are back in control.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Lions -7.5

Bills -8.5

Seahawks -3

Vikings +1.5

There are two high favorites, but at least there’s an underdog in the mix!

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Don’t look now, but the Steelers have climbed to being ranked 16th in the offensive metrics! It almost seems hard to believe, but a Kenny Pickett-led offense isn’t terrible, at least according to the numbers. Pickett began poorly last week, but improved as the afternoon progressed. It certainly helped that Diontae Johnson was back from injury. Johnson gave Pickett two viable downfield threats for the first time in a while.

It also helped the Steelers that they were going against the Rams defense. Battling the Jaguars will be a different animal. Jacksonville is ranked in the top 10 of defensive EPA. The Jaguars are at their best stopping the run, however, so that won’t impact the Steelers very much because Pittsburgh’s running game is abysmal no matter who the opponent is.

The Jaguars also generate decent pressure and blitz at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL. This doesn’t bode well for Pickett, whose turnover-worthy play percentage rises from 1.9 when not blitzed to 5.4 when blitzed this year. Perhaps Johnson will help in this regard.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Like the Jaguars, the Steelers are also top five in blitz rate. And like Pickett, Trevor Lawrence doesn’t like when extra pass rushers are sent his way. Lawrence is pristine when not blitzed, possessing a 71.9 completion rate, a 7.1 YPA, and a 6:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. When blitzed, Lawrence is completing just 54.1 percent of his passes on a 6.4 YPA and a 2:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. His turnover-worthy play percentage when blitzed is 4.0 compared to 3.2 when not blitzed.

Lawrence isn’t shielded incredibly well, so the Steelers will be able to get to him, whether they blitz or not. This will undoubtedly create a turnover or two, which could mean that this becomes one of those odd games where the Steelers inexplicably win at home despite being outgained in every facet.

One area where the Jaguars can have success is establishing Travis Etienne. Pittsburgh is just mediocre when it comes to stopping the rush. Etienne just abused a strong run defense last week in a victory over the Saints, so perhaps he’ll have a similar or better output in this matchup.

RECAP: I don’t know how the Steelers do it, but they find ways to win games they probably should lose. They did this twice at home earlier in the year versus the Browns and Ravens, and it could be argued that they did the same last week after trailing the Rams 9-3 and 17-10.

Mike Tomlin is a terrific coach, so it’s easy to trust him in these games. Tomlin is a terrific record as an underdog, owning a 56-30 against the spread record, so I’m inclined to trust him in this situation yet again. It’s early in the week, but the sharps have the same sentiment, betting Pittsburgh at a decent clip.

I’m going to trust Tomlin and the sharps and bet the Steelers for a unit or two. I’ll obviously feel much better about this if we can get a viable +3.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps were on the Steelers earlier in the week, but the pro money has evened out. I think I’m going to cut this bet down to one unit.

SATURDAY NOTES: As with the previous game, I’m switching sides and betting on the other team. I fear that the Jaguars are out of Pittsburgh’s weight class, and the Steelers’ voodoo of winning games out of thin air is not sustainable.

PLAYER PROPS: Calvin Ridley is the target in this game. Everyone is so down on Ridley that he’s even cheaper than Christian Kirk on DraftKings. Ridley, however, has had a couple of tough matchups. This one is much easier, as the Steelers are top five in fantasy points allowed to outside receivers. The best receiving yards number is over 49.5 -115 on BetMGM. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The best line is -2.5 -110 in many sportsbooks, but if you still like the Steelers, you can find +3 -126 at Bookmaker, which is worth it. There’s no sharp action on this game.

Houston Texans (3-3) at Carolina Panthers (0-6)
Line: Texans by 3.5. Total: 43.5.
Sunday, Oct. 29, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Texans.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s something from a guy who made an appearance last week:



I would have responded, but Desmond Hume had the best reply imaginable. Seriously, can you imagine thinking that someone runs a business solely off gambling profits?

I’m not sure if this is hate mail or not. It doesn’t sound like it at first, but I think it might be:



I think this person might be on drugs.

One more:











This boot-licking idiot ended up blocking me, though I’m sure it was by accident. That bottomless pit meme is perfect for this guy, by the way, as he clearly believes everything the fake news machine is telling him, licking the establishment boot in the process. It takes someone extremely dumb and ignorant to think like this bozo.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: C.J. Stroud has been fantastic thus far. He’s posted numerous 300-yard performances and set the record for most passes without an interception to begin a career. This would have been a tough matchup for him to begin the year back when the Panthers had their full defense together and the Texans were missing multiple offensive linemen. The one thing the Panthers do well on this side of the ball is rush the passer, but the Texans will be able to protect Stroud with their currently healthy blocking unit.

The Panthers have been missing key players in their linebacking corps and secondary, with Shaq Thompson and Xavier Woods sidelined since September. Losing both of those players has made Carolina’s pass defense substantially worse, so Stroud figures to perform well once again.

What’s astonishing about Stroud’s start to his career is that he hasn’t had any sort of help from his running game. The Texans have battled so many tough ground defenses, but that’ll change this week. The Texans are miserable versus the run, so Dameon Pierce and Devin Singletary could perform well a change.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: The Panthers had a chance to draft Stroud. In fact, the coaches wanted Stroud after the trade was made with Chicago. Management and ownership inexplicably overruled the coaches, however, which probably goes to show that the non-football people should listen to those who know more than they do.

Bryce Young has been miserable thus far, and it’s hard to imagine things changing in this game. The Texans get decent pressure on the quarterback, which doesn’t bode well for Young. As bad as Young’s been – and he reminds me of a thrift-store version of Kyler Murray – he hasn’t had much help from his putrid offensive line. Those issues will persist in this game.

Carolina’s best chance of moving the chains will be on the ground. The Texans have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, so either Miles Sanders or Chuba Hubbard figure to thrive in this matchup.

RECAP: I can’t back the Panthers at the moment. They are arguably the worst team in the NFL, and they haven’t even covered the spread yet this year. Betting Carolina seems incredibly unappealing.

Then again, betting the Texans as road favorites doesn’t seem incredible either. I’m going to pick them here for office pool purposes, but this doesn’t seem like a great betting opportunity. The sharps, by the way, disagree, as they’ve been betting the Texans. It’s still early, so this could change, but Houston is currently being backed by the professionals at a decent clip.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I said on the After Dark show that I was considering changing my pick to the Panthers, but I’ve decided against it. I still think the Texans are overrated, but I don’t want to back Carolina at all.

SATURDAY NOTES: Any consideration for the Panthers fell off when Brian Burns missed Friday’s practice. Carolina is going to be a shell of its former self without Burns. That said, the Panthers are getting some positive injury news with Xavier Woods and Austin Corbett due back from their lengthy absences.

PLAYER PROPS: I love Adam Thielen in this matchup. He’s resurrected his career since being moved back into the slot, and Bryce Young only knows to target him. The Texans have the seventh-worst defense when it comes to slot receivers. The yardage total (63.5) may seem high, but Thielen has gone over that total in every game since Week 3. I’m also betting Thielen at 13/1 to score the first touchdown. I signed up at PointsBet to get that. You can Get up to $1,000 in second-chance bets at PointsBet by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: In a shocking turn of events, Brian Burns is active for the Panthers. Considering the Panthers will have him, as well as Austin Corbett and Xavier Woods returning from injury, I like the Panthers. It’s too late to change my pick for those who already entered in office pools, but if I had to redo this, I’d pick Carolina at +3.5. The best line is +3.5 -115 at BetMGM or PointsBet. You can Get up to $1,000 in second-chance bets at PointsBet by clicking the link. Anyway, the sharps haven’t bet this game.

Philadelphia Eagles (6-1) at Washington Redskins (3-4)
Line: Eagles by 6.5. Total: 43.5.
Sunday, Oct. 29, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

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WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Let’s begin with this side of the ball because the Eagles made a significant trade Monday to help shore up their poor secondary. They acquired Kevin Byard from the Titans, which will really help with their biggest weakness. The Eagles have allowed plenty of big passing performances this season, including one to Sam Howell back in Week 4. Byard won’t fix all the problems, but he’ll definitely help.

Given that Howell will have to deal with an improved secondary, he won’t repeat his success from the previous matchup. In fact, he could be substantially worse, given his propensity for taking sacks. Howell holds on to the ball too long, which could cause lots of problems against a Philadelphia defense ranked fourth in pressure rate.

The Eagles are also extremely stout when it comes to defending the run. Brian Robinson won’t get much on the ground, which will undoubtedly cause Howell to struggle in unfavorable passing situations.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Redskins have the same problems the Eagles possessed in their secondary, but the difference is that they didn’t make a trade for a Byard-caliber player. Washington has surrendered the most receptions of 50-plus yards in the NFL this season – a number that figures to rise in this matchup.

I don’t see how the Redskins’ horrific defense will stop Jalen Hurts and his receivers at all. Their pass rush won’t impact Hurts because the Eagles have an excellent offensive line, so Hurts will have all the time he needs to locate A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert.

Washington isn’t very good versus the run either. The Eagles will be able to run all over the Redskins, especially if/when they’re up big in the second half and attempting to nurse a lead.

RECAP: You probably know what I’m going to say. The Eagles are overrated, they’re favored by too many points, they can’t cover wide receivers, yadda yadda yadda, I like the other side.

Believe it or not, that’s not the case. I’m actually backing the Eagles here, and I’m doing so for a couple of reasons. First, they made a great trade to acquire Byard, who will shore up their biggest weakness. Second, I think the Redskins are more overrated than the Eagles are, or at least were prior to the Byard trade. Washington is 3-4, but is easily one of the worst teams in the NFL. The Redskins can’t do anything well. They can’t block whatsoever, while the secondary is an abomination. Philadelphia’s offense will do whatever it wants in this matchup, while the defense will hound Howell all afternoon.

If the Eagles are fully focused, they’ll almost be able to name the score of this game. However, I am not going to bet them because this is such a rough spot. They’re coming off a big win on national TV and will be playing this contest against a team they’ve already beaten prior to taking on Dallas. It wouldn’t shock me at all if the Eagles were flat, but perhaps almost losing to Washington in the first meeting will keep them alert enough to cover.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No Curtis Samuel in Wednesday’s practice. Samuel’s absence would be huge for Washington’s bid to get a back-door cover because he has played such a big role for them.

SATURDAY NOTES: Jordan Davis doesn’t look like he’s going to play after being downgraded each day in practice. This could make the Eagles weaker to the run, but I don’t plan on switching to Washington.

PLAYER PROPS: I’d love to bet A.J. Brown props, but the over-unders are all bloated. DeVonta Smith, conversely, is available at a discount versus a defense that is second in fantasy points allowed to outside receivers. The best over number is 48.5 -120 at Bet MGM. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Jordan Davis will play, so that’s one concern for the Eagles that I don’t have anymore. The best line is -6.5 -115 at Bookmaker. The sharps love the Redskins.

Los Angeles Rams (3-4) at Dallas Cowboys (4-2)
Line: Cowboys by 7. Total: 45.5.
Sunday, Oct. 29, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Props page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: Matthew Stafford is unstoppable when he has all the time he needs in the pocket. However, things break down for him very quickly when he’s pressured at a high rate. We’ve seen this in the Rams’ results this year. The Rams have battled four teams that have top-10 pressure rates. They’ve lost to all four of those teams. They’re 3-0 when battling teams that have a mediocre or worse pass rush.

This obviously bodes poorly for Stafford in this matchup, right? One would think so, but that apparently is not the case. Despite Micah Parsons’ presence, the Cowboys are just 18th in pressure rate this year. Outside of Parsons, no one on Dallas’ front is generating consistent pressure on the quarterback, and that includes DeMarcus Lawrence. Unless something changed during the bye, Stafford will have more time than expected.

Stafford, armed with time in the pocket, will be able to shred the middle of the field with his PPR monster receivers. The Cowboys are ranked in the bottom five of defending the middle of the field.

DALLAS OFFENSE: The Cowboys should have success moving the chains as well. The Rams aren’t poor in any area defensively except when it comes to defending tight ends. Perhaps Jake Ferguson will have a solid performance.

The Rams are mediocre versus the pass overall. They also have just one player who can get consistent quarterback pressure – Aaron Donald, obviously – so Dak Prescott will have plenty of time to locate CeeDee Lamb and his other receivers.

Tony Pollard should have a strong outing, too. The Rams are only slightly above average when it comes to stopping the run, but even they allowed touchdowns to Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren last week.

RECAP: The Rams are one of my favorite plays this week for several reasons:

1. I believe they are underrated. They’ve gotten so much flak for losing to the Steelers at home, but they outgained Pittsburgh in total yards and yards per play. Based on the negative public sentiment, most people would be shocked that the Rams are 11th in net EPA. They have an explosive offense and an average defense. Despite the defeat to Pittsburgh, they’re a very solid team.

2. With that in mind, this line is way too high. I don’t know if there’s much of a difference between the Cowboys and Rams. I have them five spots apart in my NFL Power Rankings, so there’s no way that warrants a 6.5-point spread. According to EPA metrics, the teams are even closer, with the Cowboys being eighth. This spread should be closer to -3, so we’re getting great line value.

3. The way to beat the Rams is to rattle Stafford. As mentioned, the four teams that have beaten the Rams all have top-10 pressure rates. The Cowboys, shockingly, do not. Dallas, in fact, is 18th in that category!

4. The Cowboys may not be focused. Like the Eagles, they could be looking past an opponent with a 3-4 record with a battle against their arch rival on the horizon.

Hopefully we get a +7, but I love the Rams. Unless there are any surprise injuries, I’ll be betting five units on them.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I still love the Rams, but we haven’t gotten a +7 yet.

SATURDAY NOTES: Rob Havenstein potentially being out after missing practice Thursday and Friday is not ideal, but he’s only one blocker. I still love the Rams.

SATURDAY NOTES II: As stated on the Saturday night After Dark Show (please like and subscribe)…



…I want to lock in the Rams at +7 because this line could move if the sharps jump on the +7 on Sunday morning. The best line is +7 -110 at Caesars or BetMGM. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Both teams are missing tackles, with Tyron Smith and Rob Havenstein sidelined. I’m glad I locked in +7 -110 on Saturday night because the sharps took the Rams at +7. The best line remaining is +7 -115 at BetMGM. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

New England Patriots (2-5) at Miami Dolphins (5-2)
Line: Dolphins by 8.5. Total: 47.
Sunday, Oct. 29, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Dolphins.

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MIAMI OFFENSE: Tua Tagovailoa has been terrific in most games this year, but his two worst performances have come against two teams that possess top-five pressure rates: Buffalo and Philadelphia. Tagovailoa has torched everyone else, as he releases passes quickly and can get the ball to his talented receivers, who are usually schemed open.

The Patriots were able to rattle Josh Allen last week, but I wouldn’t trust them to consistently pressure Tagovailoa without Matthew Judon. New England is in the bottom 10 of pressure rate, so Tagovailoa will have all the time he needs to locate Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

New England will at least be able to stop something on this side of the ball, and that something is the run. The Patriots are 10th versus the rush, so Raheem Mostert probably won’t have any big plays this week.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Mac Jones sucks. I will never forgive him for the safety he took against the Raiders. However, Jones sucked a little less hard against the injury-ravaged Bills, and perhaps he won’t suck as hard against Miami either.

The Dolphins have a poor defense, and it doesn’t help that they were missing both starting cornerbacks last week. Xavien Howard might be able to return to action, but his presence won’t matter as much versus the Patriots. Kendrick Bourne has been excellent this year, but it’s not like Miami has to cover anyone as gifted as A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith in this game.

However, Miami’s weakness versus the run will be significant in this matchup. The Dolphins are a couple of weeks removed from surrendering a big game to Chuba Hubbard, so the Patriots will be able to establish Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott to keep Jones in favorable passing situations.

RECAP: Ugh, I can’t believe I’m doing this, but I’m going to be betting the Patriots.

I know, I know. I’m ready to lose money. It’s inevitable. But I have to do it.

If you’re not following, I bet the Patriots heavily versus the Cowboys, Saints, and Raiders. I lost all three times for a combined 18 units plus the vig. The latter defeat was especially heartbreaking because we lost our Pick of the Month on a safety at the very end, thanks to Jones’ idiotic safety. Adding insult to injury, I finally backed off New England, only to see them win outright versus Buffalo.

I like the Patriots to continue to bounce back. They seem to have found their rhythm, especially offensively, and they shouldn’t have any issues moving the chains against the Dolphins’ pedestrian defense. They did so in the first meeting, losing by only seven points. They should be able to repeat that and keep this game close.

Also, it’s hard to imagine the Dolphins being very focused. Following this game against a team they’ve already beaten, they have to fly to Germany to battle the Chiefs. If there was ever a disinterested heavy favorite, Miami is it.

Having said that, I don’t think I could go too heavy on the Patriots. I should have bet them for two or three units last week, so I’ll be doing the same thing in this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Miami’s Wednesday practice report is rather worrisome. Tyreek Hill, Raheem Mostert, Jevon Holland all missed practice. Xavien Howard was limited, as were a bunch of other players, ranging from Jaylen Waddle to Connor Williams.

SATURDAY NOTES: Tyreek Hill is off the injury report, while Jalen Ramsey might be able to make his 2023 debut. I’ve been thinking about this game a lot, and I think it would be a mistake for me to bet on the Dolphins. This is not like last week where the Bills were an obvious fade because of their injuries. Miami has had New England’s number recently, so if the Dolphins are focused, this could be a lopsided game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Some sharp money has come in on the Patriots with the Dolphins missing Xavien Howard and Jevon Holland. I’ll probably regret removing my New England units, but I think I just need a clean break from this team. The best line is +8.5 at FanDuel.

New York Jets (3-3) at New York Giants (2-5)
Line: Jets by 3. Total: 35.5.
Sunday, Oct. 29, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Jets.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

NY GIANTS OFFENSE: Another week, another game in which we’re wondering if Andrew Thomas is going to return. Daniel Jones’ status is in question as well, so we have to worry about him, too. Given how relatively well Tyrod Taylor has played in relief of Jones, however, there’s no guarantee that the Giants would go back to Jones anyway. Still, Thomas’ availability is massive, especially given the matchup.

The Giants will unquestionably need Thomas on the field. This isn’t like last week when everyone irrationally feared Washington’s defensive line even though the Redskins are about league average in pressure rate. The Jets are No. 1 in pressure rate. If Thomas isn’t available, it’s highly unlikely that the Giants will be able to consistently move the chains.

There will at least be some hope with Saquon Barkley. The Jets are a run-funnel defense, so Barkley will have some opportunities. That said, the Jets aren’t that bad when defending the rush, ranking 13th against it, so I wouldn’t expect Barkley to have a massive game or anything.

NY JETS OFFENSE: When analyzing anyone playing against the Giants, it’s important to note how the opposing quarterback handles the blitz, given that the Giants blitz at one of the highest clips in the NFL. Last week, we had a nice advantage with New York because Sam Howell handles the blitz horribly.

One would expect Zach Wilson to be terrible versus the blitz, but he actually performs better when there are extra pass rushers sent his way. Wilson’s completion percentage rises three points; his YPA is 2.5 yards higher; and his turnover-worthy play percentage is about the same. Thus, it’s reasonable to expect Wilson to perform well against the Giants and their poor secondary.

The Jets, however, will get most of their positive plays from Breece Hall. The Giants are far worse versus the run than the pass, ranking a meager 29th versus the rush. Hall, who no longer has a pitch count, figures to thrive versus the Giants.

RECAP: I’ll have a better idea of what I’ll be doing in this game later in the week. The reason I’m not unsure now is because we’re waiting on significant injuries from the Giants. Both Thomas and Jones missed last week’s victory over the Redskins. They weren’t needed in that win, but the Giants will need all hands on deck to deal with the Jets’ ferocious defense this week.

If Thomas isn’t available, it’s hard to imagine the Giants having success moving the chains against the team with the top pressure rate in the NFL. That would make things even harder for Taylor, a backup who isn’t equipped to battle a top-end defense.

Should the Giants have their entire starting offense available, a case could be made to pick them. However, it’s more likely that some of their key pieces will continue to miss time, and if that’s the case, I’ll probably have a light wager on the Jets.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread seems like it’s trending toward -2.5. I don’t know why, but there’s been a big shift in public action on the Giants. Andrew Thomas being limited in Wednesday’s practice may have had something to do with that.

SATURDAY NOTES: So much for trending toward -2.5. The Jets are -3 across the board with Daniel Jones and Andrew Thomas sidelined. I’m on the Jets for at least three units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s been some good news for the Giants with John Michael Schmitz and Adoree Jackson returning, but they’re still down Andrew Thomas, Evan Neal, and Daniel Jones. The sharps were on the Jets at -2.5, but not at -3. I still like the Jets at -3, and the best vig is -110 at PointsBet, followed by -111 at Bookmaker. You can Get up to $1,000 in second-chance bets at PointsBet by clicking the link.

Atlanta Falcons (4-3) at Tennessee Titans (2-4)
Line: Falcons by 2.5. Total: 35.
Sunday, Oct. 29, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Falcons.

Video of the Week: I may have posted this before, but someone animated Joe Biden’s famous Corn Pop speech:



My conspiracy theory is that Corn Pop saw Biden being weird with kids – Biden talked about them touching his hairy legs – and wanted to put a stop to it. That’s right – Corn Pop was the good guy all along!

ATLANTA OFFENSE: I bet the Falcons to win the division, but it’s hard to root for them right now after the stunt they pulled last week. They gave Bijan Robinson only one touch during the game, opting to use Tyler Allgeier, Cordarrelle Smith, and even Keith Smith over him. It was eventually reported that Robinson was dealing with an illness, but the Falcons should have revealed this on the injury report if they knew anything about it.

One would assume that Robinson will play more in this game, but there’s no telling what Arthur Smith is going to do. Robinson doesn’t even have a great matchup anyway. The Titans are decent at stopping the run, so the Falcons will have to do most of their damage aerially.

This shouldn’t be a problem, given the matchup. The Titans have been atrocious against the pass this year, and they’re only going to be worse with Kevin Byard traded to the Eagles. I have little doubt that the Falcons will move the chains in between the 20s, but the red zone will continue to be the issue. Atlanta had three turnovers in the red zone last week, including two at Tampa Bay’s 1-yard line.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: One of the first things I look at when dissecting a Titans game is if Tennessee’s opponent can defend the run. What the Titans do on this side of the ball is predicated on establishing the rush because of Derrick Henry.

With that in mind, this matchup looks dreadful for the Titans because the Falcons are second versus the run. Only the Saints are better. So, it would be shocking if Henry were able to do anything of significance in this contest.

Making matters worse for Henry and the rest of the Titans, there’s a chance Ryan Tannehill will be sidelined with the ankle injury he suffered in London. If he’s out, it’ll be up to either Will Levis or Malik Willis to throw into a talented secondary. Good luck with that!

RECAP: Man, it’s hard to trust the Falcons. Atlanta is atop the division after defeating the Buccaneers, but they should have crushed Tampa. As mentioned earlier, they turned the ball over three times in the red zone, including twice at the Tampa 1-yard line!

However, Atlanta’s defense bailed out the offense last week, and the same could happen again. It seems likely that Tannehill will be sidelined, which will make things difficult for the Titans, given that the Falcons have a top-12 defense. I’d be interested in backing Tennessee with a reserve quarterback against a softer defense.

The one thing that gives me pause about betting the Falcons has to do with Mike Vrabel. If you’re wondering if it’s the “Vrabel has a great track record as an underdog” thing, then that wouldn’t be correct because Vrabel is about .500 as a dog under three. The best stat for Vrabel in this game is that he’s undefeated against the spread following a bye. He’s 5-0 in this situation. Granted, five games is not a large sample size, but the logic is there. If you give a great coach extra time to prepare, then he’ll be able to take advantage of that.

With all that said, I’m not betting this game. If the Titans weren’t coming off a bye, I’d have interest in wagering on the Falcons, but it’s hard to go against Vrabel when he has such a favorable situation.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It sounds like Will Levis is going to start this game. I wasn’t a fan of him coming out of Kentucky, but that doesn’t mean that he can’t succeed in the NFL. The unknown factor gives me some pause, but I’m stil on the Falcons.

SATURDAY NOTES: I think I may bet the Falcons, but if I do, it’ll be on the moneyline. They’re the kings of winning but not covering as a result of all their kicking.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Like I said, I have slight interest in the Falcons moneyline, with the best vig being -134 at FanDuel, followed by -135 at BetMGM. The sharps haven’t touched this game.

Minnesota Vikings (3-4) at Green Bay Packers (2-4)
Line: Vikings by 1. Total: 42.
Sunday, Oct. 29, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are complete. They may return in the future, but I had to stop them for now. Besides, I wrote a similar-type book is called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:



Oh, and my other book is still available as well:



In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: I was unsure if Minnesota would be able to score many points on Monday night, and I can’t imagine that I was alone. The Vikings produced just 12 offensive points against the Bears the prior week, after all. Yet, despite missing Justin Jefferson once again, Kirk Cousins lit up the 49ers with ease.

Cousins’ ability to repeat this output will depend on the availability of a couple of key Packer defenders. Green Bay sorely missed Jaire Alexander and De’Vondre Campbell last week, as Denver moved the chains easily and pulled the upset. If both players are out again, Cousins will be able to pick up where he left off Monday night by connecting early and often to Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson.

Conversely, even one of those defenders being available will make a huge difference. Alexander being on the field will allow the Packers to use him to shadow Addison, forcing Cousins to look elsewhere. Campbell would help versus Hockenson. The Vikings may have to turn to the run in that scenario, which could work because the Packers are poor versus ground attacks.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: It goes without saying that “No Cookie” Jordan Love has been a colossal disappointment. Love had some good performances to begin the season, but he has been dreadful in recent games. I understood the poor performance against the Lions, but what was up with his outputs against the dreadful Raiders and Broncos defenses?

The Vikings don’t have a great stop unit by any means, but this is a group that has improved since the beginning of the season, thanks to Brian Flores’ excellent coaching. The Vikings even have a top-10 pressure rate, though a big part of that is because they blitz at the highest rate in the NFL. One would think that Love struggles against the blitz because he’s been so dreadful in many games this year, but he has shockingly handled the blitz well. Love has seven touchdowns and seven interceptions in normal situations, but he has thrown three touchdowns to no picks when blitzed. His big-time throw percentage rises from 2.1 when not blitzed to 6.6 when blitzed, while his turnover-worthy play percentage drops from 3.1 to 2.9.

It won’t all be fruitful for the Packers’ offense because it doesn’t seem like Love will have much help from the rushing attack. Minnesota has actually been excellent versus the run, ranking fourth against it.

RECAP: The Packers have been so disappointing in recent games. They lost to both the Raiders and Broncos recently. Granted, both games were on the road, but the Raiders and Broncos are easily two bottom-10 NFL teams. The Packers should have prevailed in at least one of those matchups.

The Packers will be at home in this game, however, and they will benefit from having more rest than the Vikings, who just pulled a major upset on Monday Night Football. If you’re wondering if this is something that could potentially carry over into the following week, here’s the data: Underdogs of six or more coming off upset Monday night wins are 16-23 against the spread the following week. It’s not a big sample size, but it at least confirms that there doesn’t need to be an overadjustment made to the these teams after their surprising victories.

I imagine the public will be lining up to bet the Vikings after seeing them upset the 49ers, but those same people will quickly forget that Minnesota had just 12 offensive points versus the Bears the prior week. I’m going to take the value and side with the Packers with the hope that Love continues to handle the blitz well

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Aaron Jones missed Wednesday’s practice, which is really frustrating as someone who is backing Green Bay. Jaire Alexander and De’Vondre Campbell were at least questionable.

SATURDAY NOTES: Everyone has made a big deal about Darnell Savage going on injured reserve, but he sucks, so who cares? The key injuries are to Jaire Alexander and De’Vondre Campbell, both of whom are questionable. Campbell was limited all week, so perhaps he’ll be able to return. I still like the Packers, who could easily be 4-2 or 5-1 right now if some of their one-score games went their way.

PLAYER PROPS: The Vikings are known to have a bad secondary. They’re especially poor against slot receivers, ranking fifth in fantasy points allowed to them. I’m going to bet Jayden Reed over 30.5 receiving yards -110, which is found at PointsBet. You can Get up to $1,000 in second-chance bets at PointsBet by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Jaire Alexander, De’Vondre Campbell, Luke Musgrave and Josh Myers were all questionable for the Packers. All are active, so I’m going to increase my unit count to three. The sharps are betting Green Bay. The best line is +1 -110 at Caesars and DraftKings.