NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 8, 2023: Late Games

Amon-Ra St. Brown
NFL Picks (Preseason 2023): 4-7 (-$905)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2023): 10-6 (+$760)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2023): 8-7-1 (-$435)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2023): 12-4 (-$995)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2023): 6-8-2 (+$440)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2023): 5-9 (-$2,110)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2023): 6-8-1 (-$2,230)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2023): 7-6 (+$30)
2023 NFL Picks: 58-55-4 (-$5,445)

NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Oct. 29, 11:30 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 8 NFL Picks – Early Games






NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 8 Late Games


Cleveland Browns (4-2) at Seattle Seahawks (4-2)
Line: Seahawks by 3. Total: 38.

Sunday, Oct. 29, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Seahawks.

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CLEVELAND OFFENSE: It’s currently unclear what the Browns plan on doing at quarterback. Deshaun Watson began 1-of-5 for five yards and an interception last week before seemingly firing another interception and then leaving the game with a potential concussion. Watson cleared protocol, but the Browns left him on the bench for reasons unknown. If they were concerned about his shoulder health, why did he even start the game? Nothing Kevin Stefanski said or did made any sense.

If Watson is still hurt, then we’ll have an injured quarterback or a reserve signal-caller against Seattle’s defense, which has improved by leaps and bounds this season. The Seahawks couldn’t stop the run at all last year, and yet they now have a top-five ground defense. They’ll limit Kareem Hunt, forcing one of the Cleveland quarterbacks to beat them through the air.

Watson or Phillip Walker being in unfavorable situations doesn’t bode well against a vastly improved Seattle secondary. Ranking third against the pass, the Seahawks have gotten so much better on the back end with Devon Witherspoon potentially being the favorite to win Defensive Rookie of the Year.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: Despite the putrid quarterbacking, the Browns were able to prevail last week because Myles Garrett made so many big plays in the backfield. The Seahawks have a solid offensive line, but there’s no keeping Garrett out of any backfield. He’s a legitimate MVP candidate at the moment.

Then again, despite Garrett’s heroics last week, the Browns allowed too many big plays in the passing game. We saw this occur against the Steelers as well when George Pickens scored a touchdown on a deep pass. This issue could emerge again with Geno Smith possessing so many talented weapons in the passing game. D.K. Metcalf is expected back, while Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Jake Bobo are emerging as viable threats.

The Browns won’t be able to fully focus on stopping Smith and his receivers because Kenneth Walker is such a threat in the backfield. Cleveland is ninth against the run, however, so I wouldn’t expect Walker to have a huge performance, or anything.

RECAP: I made a major adjustment to the Seahawks in my NFL Power Rankings this week. This is not a reaction to their 10-point win over the Cardinals, but rather an admission that I was wrong about them. I underestimated their defense, which currently ranks No. 1 in EPA. Some of the additions they made this past offseason have been terrific.

With that in mind, the Seahawks appear to have a great matchup edge in this game because their terrific defense will be battling either an injured quarterback or a backup. Either way, Cleveland has a dreadful offense that ranks 31st. It’s hard to imagine the Browns having any offensive success in this contest.

I don’t often do this, but I’m going to lock in Seattle now for a couple of units. I wish I could see an injury report first, but I want to get this number because it will move drastically in the event that Watson is ruled out.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I don’t always make the right choices when locking in a spread, but I was correct in doing so in this instance because the Seahawks have risen to -3.5.

SATURDAY NOTES: Deshaun Watson was ruled out, yet this line moved to only -4. I thought we’d see -5.5, though it’s not like there’s an enormous difference between those lines. Still, we’re getting Phillip Walker versus the No. 1 defense in the NFL. Good luck!

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: There’s been some sharp action on the Browns at +4. I’m glad to have locked this in already!

FINAL THOUGHTS: As stated earlier, there was some sharp money coming in on Cleveland at +4. If you still like the Seahawks, you can get -4 -110 at PointsBet or Bovada.





The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: Seahawks.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Seahawks -4.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -1.5.
Computer Model: Seahawks -6.






The Vegas. Edge: Browns.
Money on the Seahawks.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 61% (103,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.
  • Seahawks are 57-44 ATS as home favorites since 2007.
  • Opening Line: Seahawks -2.
  • Opening Total: 41.5.
  • Weather: Sunny, 49 degrees. Light wind.



  • Week 8 NFL Pick: Seahawks 23, Browns 16
    Seahawks -3 -108 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$200
    Under 38 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Seahawks 24, Browns 20




    Kansas City Chiefs (6-1) at Denver Broncos (2-5)
    Line: Chiefs by 6.5. Total: 47.

    Sunday, Oct. 29, 4:25 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

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    The Broncos have been better defensively because they’ve gotten some reinforcements back from injury, including Josey Jewell, Justin Simmons, and Brandon Browning. Still, it seems rather far-fetched that Denver will be able to limit the Chiefs at all. They have problems versus tight ends, which doesn’t bode well at all versus Kelce.
    Denver is at its worst on this side of the ball trying to stop the run. A.J. Dillon bulldozed through this defense last week, and Isiah Pacheco figures to do the same. We know this because Pacheco just had a successful performance against the Broncos two weeks ago.

    DENVER OFFENSE: Some thought that Russell Wilson would be able to hang with the Chiefs two weeks ago, just as he did in matchups in 2022. Wilson, however, did nothing of the sort. He didn’t even reach 100 passing yards in what was a truly embarrassing performance.

    I can’t imagine things changing just two weeks after that defeat. Wilson was able to throw on the Chiefs last year because Kansas City’s defense was mediocre at best then. Things have certainly changed, as the Chiefs now have the sixth-ranked EPA defense. They’re at their best when rushing the passer, ranking second in pressure rate. Wilson is not well protected, so that would explain why Wilson struggled so much in the Week 6 affair.

    One area in which the Broncos could succeed is running the ball. We saw signs of that in the Week 6 matchup, but Denver stopped operating on the ground for some reason after a successful opening drive. Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin could perform well, but keep in mind that the Broncos may have to legitimately abandon this offensive approach if they fall way behind early, which is a possibility.

    RECAP: I bet the Chiefs two weeks ago against the Broncos, but I will not be doing so this time. They’re in such a terrible spot. They’re coming off a big statement win against their toughest divisional competition, and now they’re big favorites against a team they just beat by double digits a couple of weeks ago. Following this “easy” game, they have to travel to Germany to battle the Dolphins. This is another example of a bloated favorite that probably won’t be very focused. The sharps agree, as they’ve been betting the Broncos heavily once again.

    So, why am I not betting the Broncos? Quite simply, I don’t want to stand in front of the Kansas City freight train. The Chiefs are the best team in the NFL, ranking in the top six of both offense and defense. I can’t imagine how the Broncos will be able to stop Kansas City at all, barring a bizarre sequence of turnovers and other mistakes.

    I’m actually going to side with the Chiefs because I can’t bring myself to back this stupid Denver squad. But like I said, I have no interest in betting either side.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps have dragged this spread to +7. I understand the case to be made against the Chiefs, but I’m going with them anyhow.

    SATURDAY NOTES: This is still Chiefs or nothing for me. I get the sharps are on the Broncos, but I’ll take my chances with the best team in the NFL.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Patrick Mahomes has the flu, but will reportedly play. That still won’t put me on Denver.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s so much sharp money on the Broncos that a viable -6.5 has appeared at Bookmaker at -116 vig. I imagine this movement is the result of the Mahomes flu news. I wouldn’t read too much into it.





    The Motivation. Edge: Broncos.
    The Chiefs just had a big statement win. Now, after this game against a team they’ve already beaten, they have to fly to Germany to battle the Dolphins.


    The Spread. Edge: None.

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -9.5.
    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -8.5.
    Computer Model: Chiefs -11.






    The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.
    Slight lean on the Chiefs.

    Percentage of money on Kansas City: 63% (163,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Broncos.
  • History: Chiefs have won the last 16 meetings.
  • Patrick Mahomes is 77-19 SU, 52-43 ATS (39-31 ATS when not favored by double digits.)
  • Patrick Mahomes is 5-9 ATS as a road favorite of 7+.
  • Sean Payton is 13-4 ATS in same-season revenge games.
  • Broncos are 33-17 ATS as home underdogs since 1991.
  • Russell Wilson is 32-15 ATS as an underdog.
  • Opening Line: Chiefs -8.5.
  • Opening Total: 44.5.
  • Weather: Sunny, 28 degrees. Light wind.



  • Week 8 NFL Pick: Chiefs 27, Broncos 13
    Chiefs -6.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Under 47 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Broncos 24, Chiefs 9




    Cincinnati Bengals (3-3) at San Francisco 49ers (5-2)
    Line: 49ers by 4.5. Total: 43.5.

    Sunday, Oct. 29, 4:25 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: None.

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    CINCINNATI OFFENSE: What happened to the 49ers’ defense on Monday night? Perhaps it was an instance of an uninterested big favorite being lethargic, but Kirk Cousins beat the San Francisco secondary so easily despite Justin Jefferson being sidelined.

    Whatever’s wrong with the 49ers may not be fixed in such a limited time span, given that they’ll be playing on such a short work week. Besides, they’ll have their work cut out for them with Joe Burrow likely being healthy. We saw hints of Burrow being 100 percent prior to the bye, and he’ll just be even better with another week off. The offensive line will continue to be a work in progress, but with such dynamic weapons at his disposal, Burrow will be extremely difficult to stop if he’s back to his former self.

    One thing the Bengals won’t be able to do well on this side of the ball is establish the run. The 49ers continue to be excellent versus the rush, and Mixon just isn’t the same back he once was.

    SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: It was shocking to see the 49ers struggle so much defensively. Their inability to perform up to par offensively was expected, however, given their two major absences. With no Deebo Samuel or Trent Williams, a downgrade in offensive production was inevitable.

    Samuel is expected to be sidelined once again, while Williams’ status is up in the air. Williams’ availability will be important against Trey Hendrickson and Cincinnati’s pass rush. The Bengals rank seventh in the NFL in pressure rate, so Purdy won’t do very well if he’s constantly hounded with Williams unable to shield his blind side. The pressure will obviously hinder the offense that will be down a major weapon.

    Of course, Christian McCaffrey could end up saving Purdy and the rest of the offense. The Bengals are substantially weaker versus the run than the pass, ranking 24th versus ground attacks. McCaffrey showed that he could still make big plays Monday night despite not having Williams blocking for him, so he shouldn’t have any issues picking up chunks of yardage versus Cincinnati.

    RECAP: I mentioned in the Packers-Vikings write-up that teams haven’t done very well when coming off big upset victories on Monday Night Football. But what about the favorites who lost those games? They haven’t performed well either, going 18-23 against the spread in those situations. That’s not a great percentage or a big sample size, but I wanted to demonstrate that these teams shouldn’t automatically be expected to rebound.

    Another reason why the 49ers may not bounce back this week is the tough travel schedule. They played an early game on the East Coast a couple of weeks ago, then played Monday night. Now, they’re traveling back to the East Coast on short rest. They could be fatigued in this spot, while the Bengals are well rested off a bye.

    The bye, by the way, had to do wonders for Burrow, who should be 100 percent by now. If so, he can pick up where Kirk Cousins left off on Monday night. It’s great to get Burrow as a huge underdog like this, by the way. Burrow is 17-6 against the spread when getting points. Burrow tends to keep games close, so it makes sense that he’d have such a great spread record as a dog. Here are his margin of losses since his second season: 3, 3, 3, 25, 19, 3, 5, 3, 3, 3, 2, 19, 3, 21, 3, 24. Three of the blowout losses, by the way, have been to the Browns, who have had Burrow’s number for some reason.

    With all of this in mind, I have interest in the Bengals. This won’t be a big bet, but I’ll be wagering at least a couple of units on Cincinnati.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Brock Purdy is in concussion protocol, which is why this spread has fallen to -3.5. I’m still going to be on the Bengals at this number, but I’m not going to bet them because we could see a spirited performance from the 49ers as a result of their backup starting.

    SATURDAY NOTES: We all assumed Brock Purdy would miss this game, but he was full in Friday’s practice. I’m going to move this to “TBA Units” once again until we learn of Purdy’s status. It’s worth noting that Deebo Samuel is still out, and Trent Williams is almost certain to miss this game as well after being DNP in practice all week.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps bet the 49ers on Friday and then came in on the Bengals on Sunday morning. We’re still waiting on the injury report, but I’m going to pencil in Cincinnati for three units right now.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel are confirmed out, so I will be betting on the Bengals. The best line is +4.5 -110 at BetMGM and Caesars. The sharps have taken both sides of this game.





    The Motivation. Edge: None.
    No edge found.


    The Spread. Edge: None.

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -4.5.
    Westgate Advance Point Spread: 49ers -6.
    Computer Model: 49ers -4.5.






    The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.
    People bet the Bengals because of the Brock Purdy news.

    Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 72% (126,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Joe Burrow is 34-16 ATS when not favored by more than a touchdown (3-5 ATS otherwise).
  • Brock Purdy is 12-2 SU, 10-4 ATS.
  • Opening Line: 49ers -6.
  • Opening Total: 45.5.
  • Weather: Sunny, 64 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.



  • Week 8 NFL Pick: 49ers 28, Bengals 27
    Bengals +4.5 (3 Units) – Caesars/PointsBet — Correct; +$300
    Over 43.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Bengals 31, 49ers 17




    Baltimore Ravens (5-2) at Arizona Cardinals (1-6)
    Line: Ravens by 9.5. Total: 45.

    Sunday, Oct. 29, 4:25 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: Ravens.

    A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called Bensalem Booty Call.

    BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Ravens were able to score on nearly every possession last week against the Lions. They had issues in the red zone the prior week versus Tennessee, they but they seemed to remedy their problems in just seven days.

    If the Ravens were able to move the ball so easily against the Lions, many will probably believe that they wouldn’t have any issues against Arizona. The Cardinals have issues in their secondary, though those aren’t as dire as they were a couple of weeks ago with Budda Baker and Garrett Williams back from injury. Having Baker and Williams back for another week will help, as will Arizona’s ability to generate pressure. The Cardinals have a decent pass rush, and Lamar Jackson’s pass protection has some flaws.

    The Cardinals are at their weakest on this side of the ball when trying to stop the run. Luckily for them, the Cardinals don’t do much on the ground unless Jackson is scrambling. Stopping Jackson in that regard will be a problem, but that can be said of most teams.

    ARIZONA OFFENSE: Joshua Dobbs has looked good at times in relief of Kyler Murray and Colt McCoy, but there’s only been so much he could have done in some matchups. He scored just 10 points against the Seahawks, and I have to wonder how he’ll exceed that total in this matchup.

    The Ravens have the No. 2 defense in the NFL. They are at their best stopping the pass. It’ll be difficult for Dobbs to move the ball under these conditions, though the Ravens don’t have the best pressure rate.

    Dobbs, however, will have to do it all himself. He hasn’t been as good since losing James Conner, and it seems unlikely that the Cardinals will find any sort of offensive rhythm in this game, given that Baltimore is the No. 1 team when it comes to defending the run.

    RECAP: I’ve discussed numerous huge favorites this week that could be flat and uninterested. You can put the Ravens in that pantheon as well. Baltimore is coming off a big statement win versus Detroit. Now, everyone is calling them Super Bowl contenders. What do they have to gain from trying hard against the terrible Cardinals, who have lost by double digits in their previous four games?

    I’m going to be on the Cardinals, but I won’t be betting them. If I’m wrong about Baltimore overlooking Arizona, this game could get very ugly, given that we have a backup quarterback against the NFL’s No. 2 defense.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No Roquan Smith or Marcus Williams in Wednesday’s practice. It would take multiple injuries for me to bet on the Ravens…

    SATURDAY NOTES: Kyler Murray practiced fully this week, but is listed as doubtful. I still like the Cardinals, and I think I will be betting them on the first-half line because they always find a way to melt down in the second half.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Kyler Murray will be out, which is not much of a surprise. As mentioned earlier, I plan on betting the first-half line.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: I don’t think I’m betting the first-half line with all the BS happening today. If you still want the Cardinals, +9.5 -104 is available at FanDuel. There’s a slight sharp lean on the Ravens.





    The Motivation. Edge: Cardinals.
    The Ravens are off a big statement game victory. It seems unlikely that they’ll take the Cardinals seriously.


    The Spread. Edge: Ravens.

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Ravens -11.5.
    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -7.5.
    Computer Model: Ravens -10.






    The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.
    Easy money.

    Percentage of money on Baltimore: 74% (138,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.
  • Lamar Jackson is 9-3 ATS as a favorite of 10+. ???
  • Cardinals are 44-31 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 since 2007.
  • Opening Line: Ravens -7.5.
  • Opening Total: 43.5.
  • Weather: Dome.



  • Week 8 NFL Pick: Ravens 23, Cardinals 16
    Cardinals +9.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Under 45 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Ravens 31, Cardinals 24




    Chicago Bears (2-5) at Los Angeles Chargers (2-4)
    Line: Chargers by 9.5. Total: 46.5.

    Sunday, Oct. 29, 8:20 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: None.

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    SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: Justin Herbert is coming off a down game in which he threw an interception late in the contest to seal the victory for Kansas City. However, he was battling an elite defense, so I wouldn’t expect him to continue to perform this way against Chicago under normal circumstances. Then again, these aren’t normal circumstances for Herbert, who is dealing with a fractured finger on his non-throwing hand. It’s fair to wonder if this is impacting Herbert, who has missed Keenan Allen for touchdowns in each of the past two weeks.

    This is obviously an easier matchup for Herbert, though it’s not as great as it may have seemed several weeks ago. The Bears have improved defensively in the past few weeks, stemming from some players returning from injury. This includes top cornerback Jaylon Johnson, who has been terrific upon his return. Johnson should be able to continue to shut down one side of the field, which will make things more difficult for a hobbled Herbert.

    There’s no guarantee the Chargers will be able to run the ball either. In the past three weeks, none of Josh Jacobs, Alexander Mattison or Brian Robinson have been able to exceed 35 rushing yards. Austin Ekeler may have to do his damage as a receiver out of the backfield.

    CHICAGO OFFENSE: I can’t say I was surprised by Tyson Bagent’s performance against the Raiders in his first start. Bagent had tons of success at Division II, and the tape checked out. Bagent releases the ball quickly and possesses mobility. It helped, of course, that he had a very easy matchup last week.

    Then again, Bagent has a similar matchup this week. The Chargers have severe problems stopping the pass, as we just saw in the two games since the Chargers came off their Week 5 bye. Granted, Bagent is no Patrick Mahomes or Dak Prescott, but the opposition will have issues dealing with his play-makers. D.J. Moore and Cole Kmet figure to do well.

    Bagent won’t get as great of a performance from D’Onta Foreman this week. Foreman was tremendous versus the Raiders, but the Chargers have improved against the run in recent weeks. They even held Tony Pollard in check two weeks ago.

    RECAP: I like to make my own lines and then compare them to what Vegas releases. Of all 16 games on this week’s slate, this is the largest disparity between my number and the actual spread. While the Chargers are favored by 8.5, my line has this at Chargers -2.5. and if you think that’s crazy, consider that the EPA metrics say that the Chargers should be favored by only one point!

    This all may seem confusing, but the Chargers and Bears are not that far apart. The Chargers have the better offense, but Chicago has improved as a whole in recent weeks. They had a big lead against the Broncos, and even though they lost, they bounced back and pummeled the Redskins. They then limited the Vikings to just 12 offensive points, and they most recently demolished the Raiders. They beat the Raiders by a larger margin than the Chargers did, and before you point out that they did so with the Raiders playing their backup quarterback, remember that the Chargers faced the Raiders’ backup quarterback as well.

    Additionally, there’s reason to believe that the Bears will be more invested into this game. The Chargers are coming off a crushing defeat as underdogs in which they fought the Chiefs very hard. Now, they have to get up for an inferior, non-conference opponent as a huge favorite. This could resemble Jaguars vs. Texans in Week 3 or Redskins vs. Bears in Week 5.

    Along with the Rams, this is the second of my two favorite bets of the week. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Bears won outright.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Nate Davis and Darnell Wright missed practice on Wednesday. That’s a bit worrisome, but it’s still early in the week.

    SATURDAY NOTES: Nate Davis is out, but Darnell Wright isn’t on the injury report. The Bears are still a top play, as a bad team like the Chargers should never be relinquishing all six key numbers.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This line has risen to +9.5, but that may be because of teaser considerations. The sharps are on Chicago.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m not a fan of Nate Davis missing this game, and the sharps don’t appear to be so either. They bet Chicago earlier, but the pro money has evened out. I still love the Bears, however, because the Chargers are not good enough to be giving this many points. I don’t see anything better than +9.5 -110, which is available at almost every sportsbook.





    The Motivation. Edge: Bears.
    The Chargers put everything they had into the Chiefs game. Now, they’re big favorites over a non-conference opponent.


    The Spread. Edge: Bears.

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chargers -2.5.
    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chargers -9.5.
    Computer Model: Chargers -1.






    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action.

    Percentage of money on San Angeles: 53% (316,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Bears.
  • Chargers are 18-26 ATS in San Angeles.
  • Justin Herbert is 9-15 ATS as a favorite of -3 or more.
  • Opening Line: Chargers -8.5.
  • Opening Total: 44.5.
  • Weather: Dome.



  • Week 8 NFL Pick: Chargers 23, Bears 20
    Bears +9.5 (5 Units) – any sportsbook — Incorrect; -$550
    Under 46.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Chargers 30, Bears 13




    Las Vegas Raiders (3-4) at Detroit Lions (5-2)
    Line: Lions by 7.5. Total: 46.

    Monday, Oct. 30, 8:15 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: Lions.

    This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

    Reilly: Welcome to the city of Detroit, the Windy City, where tonight, we have the LA Raiders taking on the Detroit Tigers. Guys, my Philadelphia Eagles lost to the Jets, and I would normally cry myself to sleep for five nights, but I only cried myself to sleep four nights for two reasons. One, the Jets clearly cheated by injuring Lane Johnson on purpose. And two, the producers have a beautiful singer girl lined up for me tonight so she can be my girlfriend as I fulfill Mother’s goal of upstaging Travis Kelce and his Taylor Swift girlfriend whore.

    Emmitt: Thanks, Cyan. Be careful when you accusation someone of cheating. Somebody once accusation me of cheating on a test when I was in the college of Florida University of State Florida City. We has to read the book called Of Mice and Cat. The test guy ask what the book was about, but I watch the movie so I knowed that the cat chase Jerry the mouse and he never catched him. The professor guy gived me an A+ for the test and wrote “great touchdowns vs. Georgia” on the test. Somebody say I cheat to getted this A+ but I score those touchdown fair and circle.

    Reilly: Emmitt, I wish you could take my tests when Mother gives me them from home schooling. My last test was analyzing the odds of Bingo so that Mother can get the winning card and win the best foot cream for me to rub her feet. Anyway, let’s see who the famous singer from Detroit is. The paper here says Emily M. Who is that?

    Eminem: That’s Eminem, not Emily M. Hi, my name is what? My name is who? My name doesn’t matter because I hate Donald Trump and all other white people.

    Tollefson: Buhahaha, Reilly got set up with a man! Imagine having a man cook and clean for you naked instead of kidnapped women! How embarrassing would that be? Everyone knows that men can’t cook or clean, buhahahaha!

    Reilly: Whoa, whoa, whoa, why’d I get set up with Eminem? Mother won’t even let me have his CDs and posters because she said he’s the Devil! Governor John Festerman, please do something about this!

    John Fetterman: The eye, the rib, the ring, the nail, and the heart! Kneel by the lake. Kneel by the mountain. Go to the mansions. Get the whips. Avoid the invisible floors. If I ever become senator, I’ll erase the hidden floors. If I become senator, I won’t erase the hidden floors. Next up, Dracula’s Curse!

    Reilly: Wow, I can see why people voted for you, John Festerman! Our country is better in your hands! Eminem, do you have a sister or a daughter for me to date instead? Why else are you here?

    Eminem: Yo man, why you clownin’ me? I ain’t givin’ you Hallie’s number unless you are a guy who hates Trump and has taken the Covid shot 12 times, then maybe we can talk, fool.

    Reilly: Eminem, I don’t like Trump either because Mother says he’s the Devil, but Mother also says big pharma is also the Devil, so she won’t sign my permission slip to take the Covid shot.

    Adam Schefter: Kevin, if you’ll excuse me, I must tell Eminem that I, Adam Schefter, have injected myself in the anus 716 times with the Covid vaccine, so I am ready to be deflowered with Hallie. Also, breaking news here, Kevin. The producers are saying this has nothing to do with Emimen’s daughter, but with Eminem himself. They say he has become so woke that he has grown a vagina, Kevin. Back to you, Kevin.

    Reilly: No, this is ridiculous. Men can’t grow vaginas. Mother says trains people are the Devil. Tell Eminem he is going to hell for becoming a trains woman, Joe Biden!

    Joe Biden: Now look here, you peach-swimming pulled pork tang soda. I know about trains people better than anyone because I grew up on trains. My train was an African American train so I grew up in the African American train, and I also grew up in the Israeli train. Star of David Biden is what they called me, especially when I saved Mother Teresa’s life. I went to Mother Teresa and said, here’s the deal: Schroeder is stacking the spaghetti sauce cans on the shelf, but the roach came in and said hi with a razor blade. He said, George, why don’t you go into the shower with that young girl, and I says, Mother Teresa is at last 716 years old, but then somebody grabbed a calculator and divided by 100 to get 7.16, so I said, hey Mother Teresa meet me in the shower, so I saved the day because she could have been eaten by those damn roaches. Now if you’ll excuse me, I have to go to the situation room because there is wet stuff in my pants. Thank you, thank you, thank you.

    Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe is wrong, wrong, excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe just said that the spaghetti sauce was stacked, which is completely wrong and only something someone who was a total disgrace and a total failure would say, and that’s exactly Sleepy Joe in a nut shell, which frankly, is a good way to describe Sleepy Joe’s brain, which is a nut shell, which is very small like a nut shell, one of the smallest things you’ll ever see and also hollow like Sleepy Joe’s head, and it’s completely different than my head, which is giant, like a giant nut shell, one of the biggest nut shells you’ll ever see, I’ve been asked, “Mr. President, how did you get such a big nut shell of a brain?” And I told them I didn’t know my brain was that big, but only somewhat big, but not as big as you’re saying it is, but maybe it’s as big as you’re saying because everyone says I did such a great job as president, the best job any president has ever done, frankly, much better than Sleepy Joe, who has done the worst job anyone has ever done, because he’s a total failure and a total disgrace.

    Wolfley: PLEASE DON’T SPEAK POORLY OF NUT SHELLS. MY THIRD COUSIN’S FIANCEE IS A NUT SHELL WITH 56K CABLE MODEMS FOR ARMS.

    Reilly: Shut up, idiots! I need to make it known once and for all. I don’t like trains people like Eminem!

    Eminem: Yo, that hurts, dogg. I was proud of my vagina that I grew from becoming real woke, but now I’m gonna drink a fifth of vodka and drive 90 on the freeway. Won’t be too long until I’m at the bridge now.

    Reilly: No one cares, loser! New Daddy, tell Eminem that I don’t care because I deserve a hot girlfriend singer who is a girl!

    Jay Cutler: You sure, Mr. Nick Foles Bikini Picture Guy?

    Reilly: What’s wrong with Nick Foles bikini pictures!? Are you saying I’m trains!?

    Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you’re discussing things the letters stand for in LGBTAQLMNOP++*^ acronym, Kevin. Let’s begin with lesbian, Kevin. How about gay, Kevin? You might know a thing about that, Kevin. Then there’s-

    Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS, I AM NOT GAY OR TRAINS OR LESBIAN, I JUST LOVE MY NICK FOLES BIKINI PICTURES, AND I DESERVE A HOT GIRLFRIEND SINGER, AND WHEN I FORCE ONE TO BE MY GIRLFRIEND, YOU’LL FEEL REAL DUMB! We’ll be back after this!

    DETROIT OFFENSE: I hated the spot the Lions were in last week. Jared Goff often plays much worse outdoors, especially when conditions aren’t favorable. There were heavy winds in Baltimore, so that undoubtedly affected Goff, as did the fact that Baltimore’s stellar defense forced the Lions to be one-dimensional. Goff has been able to win outdoors if he can lean on the running game, which he wasn’t able to do this past week.

    Things will be much different in this game. First of all, Goff will be indoors again, where he’s most comfortable. Second, Detroit will be battling the Raiders, who have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. We just saw D’Onta Foreman trample Las Vegas, so this looks like an incredible spot for Jahmyr Gibbs, assuming David Montgomery is sidelined again.

    The Lions’ ability to run well in this matchup will open up great passing opportunities for Goff. The Raiders have a weak secondary and no pass rush outside of Maxx Crosby, so Goff will be able to do anything he pleases in this favorable spot.

    LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: Jimmy Garoppolo is expected to play this week after being sidelined against Chicago. Garoppolo isn’t a great quarterback by any means, but he’ll be welcomed back after Brian Hoyer had such a dreadful performance against Chicago.

    Garoppolo will be able to connect with Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers for some consistent drives, but he’ll be put in bad passing situations because Josh Jacobs won’t be able to get much on the ground. The Lions are stout versus the run, so they’ll limit Jacobs.

    With Garoppolo operating in obvious passing downs, the Lions’ defense should be able to tee off on him. The Raiders pass protect poorly, while the Lions are fully capable of placing decent pressure on the quarterback.

    RECAP: I’ve been talking about bloated, uninterested favorites throughout this week’s slate. The Eagles, Cowboys, Dolphins, Chiefs, Ravens and Chargers are all teams favored considerably who could be no-shows.

    The Lions are not part of that group. This is because they were thoroughly embarrassed last week. I expect them to bounce back for that reason. I love betting on good teams that were humiliated, and Detroit certainly qualifies.

    Besides, the Lions are so much better than the Raiders. They’re only two games apart, but there’s a vast difference between them as far as the metrics are concerned. Detroit is fifth in net EPA, while the Raiders are 26th.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The spread continues to rise in Detroit’s favor. I don’t think we’ll see a -10, but I don’t think -9.5 is out of the realm of possibility.

    SATURDAY NOTES: It concerns me that the Lions won’t have Frank Ragnow in addition to Jonah Jackson. They may also be missing Halapouli Vaitai, who was limited in practice all week. The Lions being down three offensive linemen would make me decrease my unit count.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Everyone and their mom is betting the Lions, yet this line has dropped to -7.5. I think this might be because of Detroit’s offensive line injuries.

    MONDAY AFTERNOON NOTES: The sharps are coming in on the Raiders, dragging this line to +7 across the board. I loved the Lions earlier in the week, but I now agree with the sharps. What’s caught my attention is Detroit’s injuries. The Lions will be missing at least two starting offensive linemen, while Amon-Ra St. Brown is banged up. St. Brown may play, but what if he’s not 100 percent? I may bet on the Raiders tonight.

    PLAYER PROPS: I was looking to bet against Amon-Ra St. Brown, but his props aren’t posted. In the meantime, I’ll bet Jakobi Meyers to score the first touchdown. BetMGM has a great price at 16/1 when considering he’s as low as 10/1 at Caesars. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: As mentioned earlier, the sharps bet the Raiders down to +7. I assume this is because of the Detroit offensive line injuries. Plus, Amon-Ra St. Brown may not be 100 percent. The best line is +7 -108 at Bookmaker.

    PLAYER PROPS II: I wrote earlier that I had interest in Amon-Ra St. Brown’s unders. This isn’t just because he’s not 100 percent; the Raiders are also No. 8 when it comes to defending slot receivers. The best line for this is under 85.5 -115 at PointsBet. You can Get up to $1,000 in second-chance bets at PointsBet by clicking the link.





    The Motivation. Edge: None.
    No edge found.


    The Spread. Edge: None.

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Lions -7.5.
    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Lions -7.5.
    Computer Model: Lions -9.5.






    The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.
    Why would anyone bet the Raiders?

    Percentage of money on Detroit: 88% (668,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Lions.
  • Lions are 20-8 ATS after losing by 20+ points since 2007.
  • Opening Line: Lions -7.5.
  • Opening Total: 44.5.
  • Weather: Dome.



  • Week 8 NFL Pick: Lions 20, Raiders 17
    Raiders +7 -108 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$215
    Under 46 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Player Prop: Jakobi Meyers to score first touchdown +1600 (0.25 Units) – BetMGM — Incorrect; -$25
    Player Prop: Amon-Ra St. Brown under 85.5 receiving yards -115 (1 Unit) – PointsBet — Incorrect; -$115
    Lions 26, Raiders 14







    week 8 NFL Picks – Early Games
    Buccaneers at Bills, Rams at Cowboys, Vikings at Packers, Falcons at Titans, Saints at Colts, Patriots at Dolphins, Jets at Giants, Jaguars at Steelers, Eagles at Redskins, Texans at Panthers



    LOADING COMMENTS…

    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.


    Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 8 NFL Picks – Early Games



    NFL Power Rankings - Feb. 22


    2024 NFL Mock Draft - Feb. 21


    Fantasy Football Rankings - Feb. 19


    NFL Picks - Feb. 12




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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 8-9
    Bears: 11-4
    Bucs: 6-11
    49ers: 10-7
    Eagles: 7-7
    Lions: 9-8
    Falcons: 8-9
    Cardinals: 8-9
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 5-12
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 8-9
    Redskins: 14-3
    Vikings: 6-9
    Saints: 10-7
    Seahawks: 7-9
    Bills: 9-7
    Bengals: 12-5
    Colts: 7-10
    Broncos: 9-6
    Dolphins: 6-11
    Browns: 11-5
    Jaguars: 13-4
    Chargers: 8-9
    Jets: 8-9
    Ravens: 11-6
    Texans: 5-12
    Chiefs: 5-10
    Patriots: 7-9
    Steelers: 11-6
    Titans: 9-8
    Raiders: 6-9
    Divisional: 50-35 (2011-22: 558-526)
    2x Game Edge: 36-24 (2011-22: 363-361)
    2x Motivation Edge: 32-36 (2011-22: 478-405)
    2x Spread Edge: 41-40 (2011-22: 197-168)
    2x Vegas Edge: 41-38 (2011-22: 407-406)
    2x Trend Edge: 15-13 (2011-22: 306-279)
    Double Edge: 17-13 (2011-22: 190-172)
    Triple Edge: 1-1 (2011-22: 32-36)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
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    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
    2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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