NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 19, 2022

NFL Picks (Preseason 2022): 7-5 (+$645)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2022): 10-6 (+$1,165)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2022): 7-8-1 (+$1,050)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2022): 11-4-1 (+$2,825)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2022): 10-5-1 (+$1,305)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2022): 6-10 (-$2,625)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2022): 7-7 (-$1,620)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2022): 4-10 (-$2,255)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2022): 7-8 (-$640)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2022): 7-4-2 (+$170)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2022): 7-7 (+$1,460)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2022): 5-7-2 (-$350)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2022): 12-4 (+$2,005)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2022): 6-9 (+$75)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2022): 8-5 (+$1,075)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2022): 10-5-1 (+$675)
NFL Picks (Week 16, 2022): 7-9 (+$220)
NFL Picks (Week 17, 2022): 7-8 (+$80)
NFL Picks (Week 18, 2022): 10-6 (+$460)

2022 NFL Picks: 148-127-8 (+$5,720)
2021 NFL Picks: 153-141-2 (+$210)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Jan. 15, 12:00 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 19 NFL Picks – Early Games







Miami Dolphins (9-8) at Buffalo Bills (13-3)
Line: Bills by 14. Total: 44.

Sunday, Jan. 15, 1:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. I don’t know if I’d necessarily call this hate mail, but this back-and-forth was ridiculous:



Seriously, there’s a freaking date on the article! The order was correct as of that date!

I have good news – Matt Gregory is back!



Matt indirectly complimented me by listing me second. I really appreciate it, Matt!

I didn’t even have to reply to this one because others did it for me:



I don’t even think Matt Gregory responded to it because he was so ashamed. Instead, he gave me more hate for a correct pick:



This is yet another time he’s trolling me for a pick I got right. I honestly don’t think he understands how gambling works. If someone asked him, “Matt Gregory, do you know what the spread is?” I don’t think he could answer.

On the bright side, Matt Gregory will be able to outsource this to his 4-year-old niece because she knows more about football than he does. How do I know that? Here’s Matt embarrassing himself some more:



Imagine having a 4-year-old niece who knows more about football than you. Ouch.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Bills needed their special teams to carry them last week. Perhaps fatigued from dealing with the Damar Hamlin situation, Buffalo’s offense wasn’t very efficient against the Patriots. Josh Allen hit some big throws at the end, but the unit as a whole sputtered for most of the afternoon.

With Hamlin being released from the hospital, the Bills can fully focus on the Dolphins. Their offense exploded when these teams met in Week 15. Allen went 25-of-40 for 304 yards and four touchdowns in that game, which was hardly a surprise, given that Miami has some major problems in their secondary. Their pass rush has also been lackluster, despite the Bradley Chubb acquisition.

One thing to note is that the Bills won’t run the ball very well unless Allen is picking up first downs with his legs. The Dolphins are stellar against the run – Devin Singletary rushed for 42 yards on 13 carries in Week 15 – so this could be significant when Buffalo is trying to run out the clock at the end of the game.

MIAMI OFFENSE: As of this writing, it’s unclear which quarterback will start for the Dolphins. Tua Tagovailoa still hasn’t been cleared for football activities, so Teddy Bridgewater or Skylar Thompson could get the nod instead. If Bridgewater does, it’s unclear if he’ll be 100 percent. It’s unknown if his injured finger is fully healed.

With that in mind, it’s difficult to handicap this game at the moment. Tagovailoa would be able to use his receivers to beat the Bills’ lackluster secondary. We know this because it happened in Week 15. Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle were tremendous in a shootout. However, an injured Bridgewater or an inexperienced Thompson wouldn’t be able to duplicate Tagovailoa’s production.

The Dolphins also ran extremely well against the Bills in that matchup; Raheem Mostert looked like a Pro Bowl back as he dashed for 136 yards on just 17 carries. This will be significant, only if Miami isn’t getting blown out. Buffalo could easily explode offensively, forcing the Dolphins to abandon the run.

RECAP: My pick will obviously depend on Tagovailoa’s status, so we’ll have to wait on that. If Tagovailoa plays, I like the Dolphins to cover this high number. Tagovailoa will be able to successfully engage the Bills in a shootout, and if anything, he’ll have a good chance to cover the spread via the back door with one of his terrific receivers.

Things will look much different with Bridgewater or Thompson. I wouldn’t mind a fully healthy Bridgewater, but his finger could hinder his throwing ability, making it difficult for Miami to compete with Buffalo. Thompson is pretty much the same as an injured Bridgewater, so the Bills would be the play if he were given the nod.

Check back later for my official play once we have Miami quarterback news, or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Tua Tagovailoa has been ruled out, and Skylar Thompson will play. This reminds me of some other instances where crap quarterbacks have started. Joe Webb, Matt Moore, Connor Cook, Ryan Lindley and Chris Simms were other terrible quarterbacks who have started playoff games, and none of them have covered the spread. This is a high line, but it’s high for a reason. The sportsbooks don’t want people betting the Bills, but I will.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Dolphins might be in even worse shape than we thought. Not only could Terron Armstead miss this game in addition to Tua Tagovailoa; top backup tackle Brandon Shell could be out as well after missing practice all week. I’m going to lock in two units on the Bills before this line gets to -14, but I may add to this wager once the inactives are revealed.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Terron Armstead will play, so I’m not expanding this bet. I still like the Bills though, as Shell is out, so Miami still has issues with its offensive line protecting Skylar Thompson. The sharps have stayed away from this game. The best line is -13.5 -116 at Bookmaker.




The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -9.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.
Computer Model: Bills -10.5.
DVOA Spread: .




The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.
Tons of money on the Bills.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 84% (201,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Bills are 24-16 ATS after playing the New England Patriots since 1999.
  • Bills are 27-41 ATS in their last 68 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Opening Line: Bills -11.
  • Opening Total: 44.
  • Weather: Sunny, 25 degrees. Light wind.



  • Week 19 NFL Pick: Bills 27, Dolphins 13
    Bills -13.5 (2 Units) – BetMGM/Caesars — Incorrect; -$220
    Under 44 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Bills 34, Dolphins 31




    New York Giants (9-7-1) at Minnesota Vikings (13-4)
    Line: Vikings by 3. Total: 48.

    Sunday, Jan. 15, 4:40 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: None.

    If you’d like to support this site outside of buying my books or referring people to it, you can check out the WalterFootball Merch Store as well! I can design shirts rather easily, so if you have any new ideas, let me know in the comments below. In addition to WalterFootball t-shirts, you can also buy AMC and GameStop stock gear as well!

    If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

    I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

    MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The Vikings’ defense has been dreadful all year, but the offense has been able to carry it in many close wins. That may not be possible anymore, however, and not just because the playoffs have begun. The primary issue is a major injury that will derail the Vikings’ scoring unit.

    That injury is to right tackle Brian O’Neill. He and the team’s backup center got hurt in the Week 17 loss to the Packers, and Minnesota scored only 10 points until garbage time as a consequence. It’s possible that starting center Garrett Bradbury will return, but he may not be completely healthy because of a back injury. Meanwhile, O’Neill is done for the year. This will be problematic for Kirk Cousins, who has a huge disparity in how he performs when under pressure versus kept clean. Cousins has a 72.4 completion percentage when seeing no pressure in the pocket as a opposed to a 51.5 completion rate when facing pressure. The Giants rank fifth in pressure rate, which is bad news for Cousins and the rest of the offense.

    That said, I still expect the Vikings to have some offensive success. The Giants have some major problems in the linebacking corps and secondary that Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson will be able to exploit. The Giants also happen to be weak versus the run, so Dalvin Cook should have a solid performance.

    NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Giants had their way with Minnesota’s dreadful defense in the Week 16 shootout. Daniel Jones went 30-of-42 for 334 yards, one touchdown and an interception, while three of the Giants’ primary receivers torched the Vikings. Richie James (8-90), Isaiah Hodgins (8-89) and Darius Slayton (4-79) were all too much for Minnesota to handle.

    This was no fluke, as Minnesota’s pass defense has been terrible all year. The Vikings are ranked in the bottom 10 of pressure rate, which hasn’t done any favors for their poor secondary.

    The Vikings have been better against the run, but only by default, as they rank 22nd in adjusted run defense EPA. Saquon Barkley wasn’t even fully healthy in Week 16, and yet he dashed for 84 yards and a touchdown on just 14 carries.

    RECAP: If you’ve been following my picks or NFL Power Rankings at all, you know where I’m going with this. I’ve been fading the Vikings all year, and I don’t see a reason to stop now.

    The Vikings have been so incredibly lucky this season. I can go through their cupcake schedule and point out all the times they easily could have been defeated. They were down 10 to the Lions in the fourth quarter of their initial meeting, and only came back because Amon-Ra St. Brown and D’Andre Swift suffered injuries. They needed a missed field goal to beat an Alvin Kamara-less Saints team in London. They were outgained by 224 net yards against Miami’s third-string quarterback. The Redskins were up seven in the middle of the fourth quarter when Taylor Heinicke gave away the game with a horrible interception. On Thanksgiving, the Vikings were outgained by the Patriots in terms of total yards and yards per play, yet prevailed because the Patriots screwed up twice on special teams. And the coup de grace, the so-called “greatest comeback in NFL history,” saw the Vikings trail 33-0 to a 4-9-1 team that was missing its best offensive and defensive players and being coached by an ESPN analyst.

    The Vikings went on to barely defeat the Giants in Week 16, then get blown out by the Packers, who couldn’t even beat the Lions in the finale. As a result of this, Minnesota has a negative point differential this year. That’s insane for a 13-4 team. In fact, the Vikings have the lowest point differential of any team with 13 or more wins in NFL history!

    And yes, the Vikings were able to beat the Giants, but that was with O’Neill on the offensive line. Minnesota will be far worse without its elite right tackle, so the Giants should be able to pull the upset this time.

    I made this line Minnesota -1.5, so I love the value we’re getting with the Giants. The two most likely results of this game are Vikings by three and Giants by three, so we’re getting a win and a push with the +3.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I thought about locking in the Giants, but I’m holding out hope for a +3.5 line. If you want to lock this in, the best line is +3 -106 at FanDuel.

    SATURDAY NOTES: I’m going to lock in the Giants. The sharps are betting them, and so this line could move to +2.5. The best +3 is -114 at FanDuel.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: Both the public and sharps are on the Giants. This has caused the line to drop to +2.5 in some sportsbooks, though you can still get +3 -115 at BetMGM.



    The Motivation. Edge: None.
    No edge found.


    The Spread. Edge: .

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Vikings -1.5.
    Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.
    Computer Model: Vikings -3.
    DVOA Spread: .




    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action.

    Percentage of money on New York: 58% (149,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Vikings are 41-30 ATS at home since 2014 (10-15 ATS since 2020).
  • Opening Line: Vikings -3.
  • Opening Total: 47.5.
  • Weather: Dome.



  • Week 19 NFL Pick: Giants 24, Vikings 23
    Giants +3 -114 (4 Units) – FanDuel — Correct; +$400
    Under 48 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Giants 31, Vikings 24



    Baltimore Ravens (10-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (12-4)
    Line: Bengals by 8.5. Total: 40.

    Sunday, Jan. 15, 8:15 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: TBA.

    A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called Life in the British Empire. See why my new life as a British person is going swimmingly.

    BALTIMORE OFFENSE: As of this writing, we don’t know who will play quarterback for the Ravens. We all expected Lamar Jackson back three weeks ago, yet he hasn’t even been able to practice. Tyler Huntley would presumably start if Jackson weren’t able to go, but he’s experiencing shoulder tendinitis. It’s unclear how much this would hinder him.

    Whether it’s Jackson or Huntley, they’ll be tasked with a difficult matchup against a Cincinnati pass rush that puts lots of heat on the quarterback as long as the two starting edge rushers are on the field. Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard both missed some time, but they could be healthy now. The question mark is Hubbard, who might be able to return for this game. If he can, the Bengals will be able to swarm the backfield.

    The Bengals are also stout versus the run, so J.K. Dobbins won’t be able to accomplish much. That’s why it’s so important for Jackson to play, as his scrambling ability would be the ultimate wild card in this game.

    CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The Bengals scored 27 points against the Ravens last week, but they weren’t nearly as impressive on this side of the ball as that figure would indicate. Twenty-one points came off turnovers, as their offense sputtered otherwise. Joe Burrow was shockingly inaccurate, missing receivers for multiple touchdowns. Tee Higgins also had a brutal drop on a deep ball that may have gone for a score as well.

    Perhaps the Bengals were utilizing a vanilla offense, but there are some concerns stemming from the offensive line. Right tackle La’el Collins is out, which allowed the Ravens to put plenty of pressure on Burrow. The Ravens made some adjustments to their defense during the middle of the season to allow their pass rush to be better than the season-long stats indicate.

    Burrow will have to perform better in this game because he won’t be able to count on Joe Mixon being a big producer. The Ravens are even better against the run than the pass, ranking fifth in adjusted EPA ground defense.

    RECAP: This is another game in which we’re waiting for quarterback news. It’s unclear if Jackson will play. If he’s out, will Huntley be 100 percent? It’s amazing how similar the Dolphins and Ravens situations are right now.

    I’d like Baltimore if it had a healthy quarterback under center. This is a fierce rivalry where most of the games should be close. The first meeting was a 19-17 Baltimore victory. Last week’s contest saw the Bengals score 21 points off Anthony Brown turnovers, so if you exclude those, the Bengals would have lost 16-10. The offense sputtered against a unit that can get after the quarterback without blitzing, which is crucial versus Burrow.

    I’m going to be on the Ravens at this line if they have a healthy quarterback. They were able to rest their starters last week, so they were able to collect data on the Bengals, who were on the field to win. Conversely, the Bengals will be the play if Baltimore is starting Brown or a hobbled Huntley.

    Check back later for my official pick, or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Lamar Jackson is facing an uphill battle to play in this game, so we’ll have to see if Tyler Huntley can go. Huntley was limited in Wednesday’s practice, so it sounds like he’ll be able to play. I think I would be on Baltimore if Huntley starts, but I’d switch to Cincinnati in the event that Anthony Brown would get the nod.

    SATURDAY NOTES: Lamar Jackson is out, but Tyler Huntley was limited-limited-full in practice. I’m fine with betting Baltimore with Huntley set to start.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: There was some chatter about Tyler Huntley and Anthony Brown both playing in this game, but this may have just been a smoke screen. Huntley being able to play makes the Ravens appealing for reasons I stated above. The sharps agree, as they have been betting the Ravens heavily. The best line is +8.5 -110 at FanDuel.



    The Motivation. Edge: None.
    No edge found.


    The Spread. Edge: Ravens.

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bengals -5.
    Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.
    Computer Model: Bengals -6.
    DVOA Spread: .




    The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.
    Everyone is on the Bengals.

    Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 70% (149,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • John Harbaugh is 14-7 ATS following a loss of 10+.
  • Joe Burrow is 31-11 ATS when not favored by more than a touchdown (3-4 ATS otherwise).
  • Opening Line: Bengals -6.5.
  • Opening Total: 43.5.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 34 degrees. Light wind.



  • Week 19 NFL Pick: Bengals 23, Ravens 17
    Ravens +8.5 (2 Units) – FanDuel — Correct; +$200
    Under 40.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Bengals 24, Ravens 17


    Dallas Cowboys (12-5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9)
    Line: Cowboys by 2.5. Total: 45.5.

    Monday, Jan. 16, 8:15 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: None.

    This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

    Reilly: Welcome to the city of Tampa Bay, where tonight, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays take on the Dallas Cowgirls! Guys, I’d like to discuss this game because the Cowgirls are the devil and deserve to die, but we have something more pressing to get to. We need to vote for the 511th time to determine who will be Speaker of the Broadcast! This role is very important because if the president and vice president of the broadcasting company die, the Speaker of the Broadcast will become the acting president, which means I’ll finally be able to implement my law to have me paid in lots of Nick Foles bobbleheads! Guys, will you please vote for me!? Please!?

    Emmitt: Bobby Reilly, I sorry, but I am not going to votes. A lot of people been saying that election get stolened, so I do not want to be an accomplish to a crime. If the police find the stolened election in the garage of some guy, and it link to me because I vote on this election, then they going to rest me and I going to go to prism.

    Reilly: Emmitt, don’t be a fool, you can’t steal an election. That’s what the news told me, and the news never lies! Come on guys, vote for me, please!? I failed to win the vote the first 510 times we did this, but maybe I’ll win the 511th time!

    Tollefson: Kevin, you have my vote for sure. I know I wasn’t with you at first, but ever since you told me that I could get away with smuggling new female employees into my cellar, I’ve been totally on board with you.

    Reilly: Tolly, Mother said that you need to make concessions in life. That’s what I did by swearing off speaking to women to please Mother, but then she disowned me. But maybe I can get back in her good graces by winning Speaker of the Broadcast! Isn’t that enough to vote for me, Senator President John Festerman?

    John Fetterman: The owls are not what they seem. Without chemicals, he points. There’s a man in a smiling bag. The question is, where have you gone?

    Reilly: Wow, I can see why people voted for you, John Festerman! Our country is better in your hands! Hopefully we get a ballot harvester to come around and vote for you because you can’t seem to press the button correctly. I don’t know why. Hey, Schefter, will you vote for me?

    Adam Schefter: Kevin, I have breaking news, and I just checked with Trent Baalke to make sure I could break the news. I told Trent Baalke the truth – that I had been kidnapped and anally probed by aliens. When I woke up on their operating table, I told them to inject the Covid-19 vaccine directly into my anus, Kevin. And then to do so 718 more times just so I would be extra safe, Kevin. I just got tested for Covid-19 and can confirm that I am positive, but I am thankful that the alien-probing aliens shot more Covid-19 vaccine into my anus, Kevin. The news, Kevin, is that you won’t be winning the 511th vote, Kevin. Back to you, Kevin.

    Reilly: Schefter, you are the f**king worst! I’m going to win this time. I even moved into the Speaker of the Broadcaster’s suite. That’s right – Kevin Reilly is no longer sleeping in the dumpster, baby! Roger Goodell, can I count on your vote?

    Goodell: Fellow hu-man, I see you are discussing the word vote. I, too, as a fellow hu-man, like to discuss the word vote. The definition of vote is a formal indication of a choice between two or more candidates or courses of action, expressed typically through a ballot or a show of hands or by voice. Fellow hu-man, that is why I like to discuss the word vote.

    Reilly: Thanks for not answering my question at all! How about you, President Biden? Will you vote for me? You sure know a lot about voting, seeing as how you absolutely legitimately received 81 million votes despite never leaving your basement and failing to fill high school gymnasiums for your rallies. The 81 million votes are totally legitimate, so maybe you can lend me one of yours?

    Joe Biden: Come on man, you leaping lasagna with cornflakes, I challenge you to a pushup competition at the high school gymnasium where the girls there are a little bit too old. When my sister Jill Biden told me to go to the high school gymnasium, it reminded me of my glory days when I broke the 40-yard dash record time at the NFL Combine and then ran out of the stadium. They says, George, “Will you go shower with me?” and I says, “Let me see your passport, or your driver’s license, and if it says you’re older than 14, then hit the damn showers by yourself, but if you’re under 14, come join me after I make the water nice and steamy like the steamed hams video this WalterFoosball fella has been playing all of these times on the DVR, I mean record player gizmo.”

    Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe is wrong, wrong, excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe didn’t say if he’d vote for Kevin Reilly, in fact Sleepy Joe didn’t even say a single person he’d vote for, and that’s because Sleepy Joe is a loser, and not just any old loser, the biggest loser of them all, the losingest loser who ever lost anything, and the opposite of me, the winningest winner who have ever won, because I’m a winner, and you know who else is a winner is Kevin Reilly, he would make the best Speaker of the Broadcaster, frankly, and possibly the best Speaker of the Broadcaster who ever lived and could have ever lived, except for me, of course, I would make the greatest Speaker of the Broadcaster, or at least that’s what I was told by the people around me, and believe me, I have the best people around me, and no one would ever backstab me or leak info about me to anyone because everyone around me is totally the best, and someone else who is also the best is Kevin Reilly, so please vote for Kevin Reilly so that he wins bigly.

    Wolfley: DONALD, YOU ARE MISTAKEN. KEVIN REILLY WOULD BE THE WORST SPEAKER OF THE BROADCAST, EVEN WORSE THAN A REMOTE CONTROL WITH THREE LEGS AND FIVE NOSES.

    Reilly: What!? There’s no way I’d be worse than that. Looks like I need just one more vote now that I have President Trump’s! New Daddy, can you please vote for me!?

    Jay Cutler: Yeah, why not?

    Reilly: YAY YAY YAY YAY YAY I WON, MUHAHAHAHAA TIME TO UNLEASH MY AGENDA AND DESTROY ALL NFL TEAMS NOT NAMED MY PHILADELPHIA EAGLES!!!

    Jay Cutler: Wait, I thought you asked if I would not vote for you. I vote present.

    Reilly: NOOOOO, THAT’S SO LAZY, NEW DADDY! It all comes down to Charles Davis! Charles Davis, I’m sorry for everything I’ve said about you over the years.

    Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you’re discussing candidates for Speaker of the President, Kevin. Let’s discuss the candidates, Kevin, and then I’ll give my vote, Kevin. The first candidate is Emmitt Smith, Kevin. Great guy, bad grammar, Kevin. Let’s get to Don Tollefson, Kevin. Let’s hope pizza boxes don’t cause him to get arrested for human trafficking, Kevin. What are your thoughts on John Fetterman, Kevin? It doesn’t sound like his brain works, Kevin. Then there’s Adam Schefter, Kevin. His heart will explode soon, Kevin. How about we chat about Roger Goodell Bot 2.0, Kevin? Sure seems to be malfunctioning lately, Kevin. What about President Biden, Kevin? Sure seems into young women, Kevin. Let’s go to President Trump, Kevin. He seems to think he’s the best at everything, Kevin. Why not touch on Ron Wolfley, Kevin? Maybe because every inanimate object has human body parts, Kevin. Next, we have Jay Cutler, Kevin, except Jay Cutler is now asleep, Kevin. Finally, there’s me and you, Kevin, and I think I will vote for you, Kevin. Just kidding, Kevin, I vote for myself, Kevin.

    Reilly: HEY, F**K YOU, A**HOLE, I THOUGHT FOR A SECOND YOU’D VOTE FOR ME, BUT MAYBE YOU WILL NEXT TIME! ON TO THE 512TH VOTE FOR SPEAKER OF THE BROADCAST!!! We’ll be back after this!

    TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: If you ask the average fan what they think of the Buccaneer offense this year, you’ll probably hear about how Tom Brady sucks now. However, if you’re not some ESPN viewer, perhaps you may have noticed that the scoring unit had a bit more pep in its step against the Panthers in Week 17. Brady hit Mike Evans for three touchdowns in a convincing victory over Carolna to win the NFC South.

    So, what changed? Quite simply, the play of the offensive line. The Buccaneers had been missing offensive linemen for a while, but Tristan Wirfs and Donovan Smith were able to return from injury. They helped give Brady enough time to find Evans for those big gains. Things only will improve, as center Ryan Jensen is set to return from injured reserve as well. The Buccaneers have been without Jensen all year, so he’ll be a welcome addition to the blocking unit, which had struggled so much previously.

    I don’t need to tell you how crucial it’ll be to have a healthier offensive line versus Dallas’ dynamic pass rush. As it so happens, the Cowboys are one of the worst teams at defending outside receivers, so the added time in the pocket will allow Brady to deliver deep throws to Evans again.

    DALLAS OFFENSE: The offensive line isn’t the only area on the Buccaneers’ roster that is getting healthier. The secondary has gotten pieces back from injury as well. Since the bye, the Buccaneers have always been missing at least one cornerback, but they all figure to be back for this game. Tampa Bay will also have its safeties on the field after missing them for several games.

    A healthy secondary will allow the Buccaneers to slow down Dallas’ passing attack, which looked dreadful versus the Redskins last week. Dak Prescott had one of the worst games of his life, which can’t have been a surprise because he’s been an interception machine this year. He’s also missing several offensive linemen, including his center, which will be problematic against a Tampa front that can get after the quarterback a fair amount.

    The Buccaneers are also stellar against the run, so Prescott won’t be able to lean as much on Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott. The latter looked like he was running in quicksand last week, yet the Cowboys will continue to give him carries because they are very poorly coached.

    RECAP: This is my January NFL Pick of the Month. I love the Buccaneers to cover the +3, as I believe they will win outright.

    Something that immediately sticks out to me is that this spread is mispriced. I made this line pick ’em, so we’re getting three points of value, including both key numbers of three. With the two most likely results of this game being the Buccaneers and Cowboys by three in some order, we’re receiving a great number.

    Some may question my personal spread of pick ’em, but I have these teams just six spots apart in my NFL Power Rankings. Now, you could easily question the power rankings, so allow me to explain why I believe Dallas and Tampa Bay are so close.

    I’m very much pro-Buccaneers because they’re so much healthier than they were in Week 16 and beforehand. They were down numerous offensive linemen and defensive backs, but the Buccaneers are getting almost everyone back from injury, including their center. Brady having added protection makes him so much more lethal, especially against a defense that can’t defend outside receivers.

    I’m also anti-Cowboys because they’re more injured now than they have been. Their 26-6 loss to the Redskins was no fluke. They’re down multiple offensive linemen and will have trouble blocking. There’s a chance center Tyler Biadasz could return for this game, but it sounds like Dallas is rushing a lineman back from a high ankle sprain, which can’t end well.

    Also, look at what the Cowboys have done since their bye, aside from crushing the overrated Vikings. They lost to the Packers and Jaguars. They were down at halftime to the Giants on Thanksgiving. They were up only 21-19 versus the Colts entering the fourth quarter before a slew of weird turnovers happened. They nearly lost to the Texans and got crushed against the Redskins.

    Oh, and the Buccaneers already beat the Cowboys this year! They actually manhandled Dallas in the season opener, 19-3, and that game was in Dallas! The Buccaneers outgained the Cowboys in that game, 347-244, despite losing Chris Godwin to injury in the second quarter.

    With all that in mind, I don’t see why the Cowboys would suddenly win by four or more against a team that is similar to them in overall talent.

    The sharps have dropped this line from +3 to +2.5 in most sportsbooks, but you can still get +3 -124 at Bookmaker. I’m going to lock that in now before this spread moves any further.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I bet the Buccaneers to win the Super Bowl at 31.5/1 odds at Bookmaker. Tampa’s offensive line and secondary are now at full strength, so the team has a good chance to make a deep run into the playoffs.

    SATURDAY NOTES: It’s looking like Tyler Biadasz is somehow going to play off his high-ankle sprain. Ryan Jensen may not play either. I still love the Buccaneers, but these two developments are disappointing.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: I still love the Buccaneers, though I’m salty I didn’t get the best number. You can get +3 -118 at FanDuel. It’s not a huge difference from -124, but still. At any rate, the sharps were on Tampa Bay at +3, but not at +2.5, so it’s important to pay up for three. Good luck tonight!



    The Motivation. Edge: None.
    No edge found.


    The Spread. Edge: Buccaneers.

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Pick.
    Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.
    Computer Model: Cowboys -3.
    DVOA Spread: .




    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action.

    Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 59% (90,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.
  • The underdog is 116-87 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.
  • Road Team is 121-86 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.
  • Tom Brady is 283-95 as a starter (209-153 ATS).
  • Tom Brady is 195-138 against the spread since 2003.
  • Tom Brady is 129-89 ATS in non-divisional games.
  • Tom Brady is 24-14 ATS as an underdog since 2003.
  • Tom Brady is 10-3 ATS as a home underdog.
  • Buccaneers are 37-65 ATS at home in the previous 102 instances.
  • Buccaneers are 10-28 ATS as a home underdog since 2009.
  • Opening Line: Cowboys -3.
  • Opening Total: 45.
  • Weather: Clear, 57 degrees. Light wind.



  • Week 19 NFL Pick: Buccaneers 27, Cowboys 24
    Buccaneers +3 -124 (8 Units – January NFL Pick of the Month) — Incorrect; -$990
    Over 45.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Cowboys 31, Buccaneers 14






    Week 19 NFL Picks – Saturday Games
    Seahawks at 49ers, Chargers at Jaguars




    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.






    2024 NFL Mock Draft - April 16


    NFL Power Rankings - Feb. 22


    Fantasy Football Rankings - Feb. 19


    NFL Picks - Feb. 12




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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 8-9
    Bears: 11-4
    Bucs: 6-11
    49ers: 10-7
    Eagles: 7-7
    Lions: 9-8
    Falcons: 8-9
    Cardinals: 8-9
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 5-12
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 8-9
    Redskins: 14-3
    Vikings: 6-9
    Saints: 10-7
    Seahawks: 7-9
    Bills: 9-7
    Bengals: 12-5
    Colts: 7-10
    Broncos: 9-6
    Dolphins: 6-11
    Browns: 11-5
    Jaguars: 13-4
    Chargers: 8-9
    Jets: 8-9
    Ravens: 11-6
    Texans: 5-12
    Chiefs: 5-10
    Patriots: 7-9
    Steelers: 11-6
    Titans: 9-8
    Raiders: 6-9
    Divisional: 50-35 (2011-22: 558-526)
    2x Game Edge: 36-24 (2011-22: 363-361)
    2x Motivation Edge: 32-36 (2011-22: 478-405)
    2x Spread Edge: 41-40 (2011-22: 197-168)
    2x Vegas Edge: 41-38 (2011-22: 407-406)
    2x Trend Edge: 15-13 (2011-22: 306-279)
    Double Edge: 17-13 (2011-22: 190-172)
    Triple Edge: 1-1 (2011-22: 32-36)

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