NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 19, 2022

Seattle Seahawks (9-8) at San Francisco 49ers (13-4)
Line: 49ers by 9.5. Total: 42.
Saturday, Jan. 14, 4:40 PM


The Matchup. Edge: 49ers.

Week 18 Analysis: We had another winning week, but I have to say that I’m disappointed with the results. I will explain why as I’ll continue to break down all the 3+ unit picks each week:

Raiders, 4 units (loss): This was a five-figure loss for me. I didn’t actually lose five figures, but I would have won more than $10,000 in the Supercontest 6-week mini-contest had the Raiders covered. Instead, I walked away with $0 because the Chiefs decided to finally blow someone out. Sucks.

Jaguars, 3 units (win): It was nice to recover with a win on Saturday night, but I was still pretty upset.

Browns, 4 units (loss): This was the other game that really cost me in the mini-contest, though other people had the Browns, so I wouldn’t have won as much had Cleveland covered. Still, what the hell was that performance? I thought Myles Garrett said his team was going to play hard.

Bengals, 3 units (win): It looked like the Ravens might get in through the back door for a while, but the Bengals hung on and covered.

Rams, 5 units (win): What a win! It sucks the Rams didn’t prevail outright because I had a future on the Lions making the playoffs.

49ers, 3 units (win): The Cardinals provided a scare with a touchdown on a trick play early in the game, but the 49ers dominated the rest of the way.

Broncos, 3 units (loss): Ugh. The Broncos were up 11, but allowed a touchdown because of a muffed punt at the end. And of course, the Chargers were able to convert the two-point try to cover. Brandon Staley should be fired for playing his starters in such a meaningless game. He has stooped to Mike McCarthy’s low level of miserable coaching.

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SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: We saw Brock Purdy make his first national TV start four weeks ago against this Seattle team. Those expecting Purdy to be flustered were quickly proven wrong, as he completed his first 10 passes. He finished 17-of-26 for 217 yards and two touchdowns, both of which went to George Kittle. The Seahawks have been dreadful against tight ends all year, and that was certainly the case versus Kittle.

What’s remarkable is that Deebo Samuel didn’t even play in that San Francisco victory. Samuel returned last week and will continue to improve his health. He’ll give Purdy another dynamic threat to go along with Brandon Aiyuk.

Oh yeah, and then there’s Christian McCaffrey! The dynamic back had a huge performance versus Seattle four weeks ago, which was hardly a surprise, given how bad the Seahawks are versus the run. No team has a worse adjusted EPA ranking against the run than the Seahawks.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: While the Seahawks are the worst team when it comes to defending running backs, the 49ers are the best. They’re ranked at the top of adjusted EPA in ground defense, which would explain why Kenneth Walker struggled in this matchup four weeks ago.

With Walker unlikely to muster much in this third meeting between these teams, Geno Smith will be asked to do everything once again. This will be problematic for the Seahawks because Smith has been a turnover machine lately. He heaved two interceptions against the Rams last week, and he was fortunate that a potential pick-six of his was dropped. He was also lucky that he didn’t commit multiple turnovers against the 49ers back in Week 15.

Speaking of that matchup, Smith posted solid numbers – 31-of-44, 238 yards, one touchdown – but he got there in garbage time. His sole score was at the very end to trim the margin down to eight. Such a result would obviously be significant for this game, given how high the spread is.

RECAP: I would love to bet the 49ers, but this 10-point spread makes it difficult to do so. There’s been a huge adjustment in this line after just four weeks. The 49ers were -3 at Seattle in Week 15. Teams now get 1.5 points at most for being at home, so that would make that spread -6 in San Francisco (1.5 points to neutral, another 1.5 points to the different location). Obviously, there’s an adjustment because Purdy has been so good, so I made this -7.5 or -8. And yet, this line is -10!

This game has back-door cover written all over it. The Seahawks are built for such a thing with their two dynamic receivers. As mentioned, they trimmed the margin to eight at the very end the last time they played, and that could easily happen again.

It pains me to pick the Seahawks because I’ve been fading them since their bye. They’ve been incredibly overrated, but perhaps the market is finally catching up to that. You have to pay a premium to bet the 49ers in this spot, so I’ll just take the value with the Seahawks.

Our Week 19 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This line has dropped to +9.5, as there has been some sharp action on the Seahawks. Despite this, Shelby Harris has been missing practice. Harris is one of Seattle’s best defensive linemen, so he will be missed if he’s sidelined.

SATURDAY NOTES: The sharps bet the Seahawks at +10, but not at +9.5. I’m still leaning toward Seattle, but won’t be betting this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Shelby Harris will play, which was the only injury drama we had heading into this game. I still would lean toward the Seahawks, but I’m not betting this game. As mentioned earlier, the sharps bet on Seattle at +10, but not +9.5.

San Angeles Chargers (10-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8)
Line: Chargers by 2.5. Total: 47.5.
Saturday, Jan. 14, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Chargers.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides are now 30-33-1 this year.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Vikings -6

Panthers +3.5

Giants +16

Buccaneers +6

Texans +3

Week 18 was paradise for the public. The sportsbooks must have wanted to give them a late Christmas present so that they would bet more in the playoffs. The sportsbooks also got killed on the Chargers-Broncos middle.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Bengals -6.5

Chargers -1

49ers -10

I can’t say I’m surprised by any of these.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: As I wrote in the intro to the previous pick, Brandon Staley has stooped to Mike McCarthy’s dreadful level of coaching. McCarthy is a donkey who always foolishly uses his starters in meaningless games, and Staley did the same thing in the finale. He then claimed that he could only play so many players, but ignored the fact that Justin Herbert was on the field for nearly 90 percent of snaps when Chase Daniel was available. I would have fired Staley right on the spot if I owned the Chargers.

As a consequence of Staley’s asinine actions, Mike Williams injured his back and may not be available for this game. As someone who has a future on the Chargers to win the Super Bowl, this greatly upsets me. I also have a future on the Jaguars, but the Chargers have a more realistic chance to win it all because they can beat anyone while completely healthy. Williams’ absence changes that, though the Chargers should still be able to move the ball rather well on a poor Jacksonville pass defense. Joshua Palmer has proven that he can be a solid second fiddle in the event of an injury, and Keenan Allen is 100 percent at the moment.

There’s also Austin Ekeler, who will have a larger target share if Williams is sidelined. The Jaguars are solid against the run, but Ekeler should have an advantage as a receiver out of the backfield.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Trevor Lawrence was a huge disappointment in the finale. Despite having futures tied to the Jaguars winning both the Super Bowl and AFC South, I was upset when they scored a defensive touchdown in the fourth quarter of Saturday night’s game. I wanted to see Lawrence have a big moment after struggling the entire game.

If Lawrence had issues with the Titans, he may experience similar problems against San Angeles. The Chargers aren’t known for being a great defensive team, but they’re going to be much better on this side of the ball with Joey Bosa back from injury. Their pass rush will be elite with both Bosa and Khalil Mack getting after the quarterback, and Lawrence no longer has the services of Cam Robinson, who was placed on injured reserve.

While the Chargers are much better against the pass now, their run defense can still be leaky. Travis Etienne figures to rebound after a horrific showing versus the Titans.

RECAP: If you asked me to handicap this game a few weeks ago, I would have picked the Jaguars. Jacksonville was performing on a very high level, while the Chargers were constantly disappointing and playing down to their competition. They barely beat the Cardinals, lost to the Raiders, and won by just three over a Titans team that had a hobbled Ryan Tannehill playing at quarterback.

Things have changed, however. The Chargers are a much different team now that Bosa has returned from injury. Bettors love quarterbacks so much, and yet they undervalue what an elite pass rusher can do for a team. Just think about the Steelers, for example. They had the 30th-ranked pass defense when T.J. Watt was sidelined. With Watt, they were in the top six of pass defense. They also compiled an 8-2 record with him. Without Watt, they were just 1-6!

Bosa is the same sort of player, as his presence can fundamentally change a defense. The Chargers have surrendered 17.7 points per game when Bosa has played a full game this year. When he’s been out or hobbled, the Chargers have surrendered 23.4 points per game. That’s nearly a touchdown difference for one player! When are non-quarterbacks ever valued like this?

Furthermore, the Jaguars are now worse than they have been in recent weeks because they won’t have Robinson protecting Lawrence’s blind side. Robinson will sorely be missed against a defense featuring Bosa and Mack.

I wish we were getting better line value with the Chargers, but I like them regardless. They should be able to take care of business against Jacksonville.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Joey Bosa has practiced fully thus far, but Mike Williams hasn’t practiced at all. I think the Chargers will be fine without Williams, but they’d need Bosa to beat the Jaguars.

SATURDAY NOTES: Mike Williams is out because Brandon Staley is a donkey who plays his stars in meaningless games. As mentioned earlier, I don’t think the Chargers need Williams to win this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s no sharp money on either side. I still like the Chargers, as I think they’re underrated with Joey Bosa back in the lineup. The best spread is -1.5 -110 at Caesars.