NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 5, 2022

San Francisco 49ers (2-2) at Carolina Panthers (1-3)
Line: 49ers by 6.5. Total: 40.
Sunday, Oct. 9, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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CAROLINA OFFENSE: To say that the Panthers’ offense has struggled is a severe understatement. They have yet to generate more than 300 net yards of offense in any game this year, which includes last week’s 220-yard performance. They have the worst yards-per-drive average in the NFL, and they allow the sixth-highest sack rate. Their offensive line is horrendous.

Given the issues the Panthers have with their offensive line, I have to wonder how Carolina will protect Baker Mayfield in this matchup. The answer is that it won’t. Mayfield will continue to struggle mightily, though the coaching staff finally figured out that Christian McCaffrey can catch passes. Still, Nick Bosa versus Ikem Ekwonu is so lopsided.

McCaffrey will have to do all of his damage as a receiver out of the backfield. The 49ers happen to be stout against the run, so he won’t do anything on the ground.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The only way the Panthers can avoid getting blown out is by playing stellar defense and limiting the 49ers’ scoring unit. That might seem like a daunting task until you remember that the 49ers’ offense has scored a grand total of 27 points in the past two games. Granted, Denver was one of the opponents, but the Rams were missing several players in their secondary.

Jimmy Garoppolo handles non-blitz pressure much worse than most starting quarterbacks, and Carolina has the personnel to rattle him without blitzing. This is important because Garoppolo happens to be extremely good against the blitz. The Panthers’ talented secondary can do a good job of limiting Garoppolo’s weapons.

The 49ers, however, can have some success in the running game, which will open up easier opportunities for Garoppolo. Carolina is just average when it comes to stopping the rush, so San Francisco might be able to establish Jeff Wilson Jr., which will be key in having Garoppolo avoid turnovers while facing immense pressure.

RECAP: The advance line on this game was San Francisco -3. Even though the line has risen a whopping three-and-a-half points to -6.5, the public is still pounding the 49ers like crazy, thanks to what everyone witnessed Monday night. Talk about buying at the very top!

I almost talked myself into betting the Panthers. Not only are we getting great line value with them; their defense has the tools to limit an offense that hasn’t been very explosive this year. The 49ers’ offense has scored 10, 10, and 17 points this year, with the lone exception being a 28-point output against Seattle’s dreadful defense.

Sadly for the Panthers, 10 might actually be enough for the 49ers to cover, given how sorry their scoring unit is, but I don’t think we’ll see the 49ers at their best following their national TV victory. Still, it’s possible that the Panthers’ offense may score nothing against the 49ers’ defense because it’s such a severe mismatch.

Despite my argument for the Panthers, I can’t pull the trigger. They’re just too terrible, and their offense will be helpless versus San Francisco. A 10-3 result could be in the cards, which would be frustrating if I picked Carolina.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It seems as though this spread is trending toward -7, so if you like the 49ers, I would bet them now.

SATURDAY NOTES: The 49ers are dealing with a ton of injuries. They’re down seven starters, as well as their top backup tackle, who was playing for Trent Williams. A team as banged up as the 49ers shouldn’t be favored by a touchdown on the road against anyone. I know the Panthers offense is terrible, but the defense is solid and should restrict a San Francisco offense that has scored 10, 10, and 17 in the three games this year that weren’t against the Seahawks’ miserable defense.

Also, this is a tough scheduling spot for the 49ers. After losing to the Broncos – the same Denver team that lost to Indianapolis at home – the 49ers beat the Rams, but I think we can all agree that the 2022 Rams are not nearly as good as the 2021 version. They prevailed 24-9 on national TV, so I think that made them better than the public thinks they are. We see that with the spread moving from the advance line of -3 to -6.5. There’s a ton of action on the 49ers, and yet the line hasn’t moved to -7. I think this is because the sportsbooks know the sharps want to bet Carolina.

As you can see, I thought a lot about this game. I like the Panthers and will be betting them for four units. I know the 49ers defense versus the Panthers offense is a severe mismatch on paper, but these sorts of situations tend to go the other way. The 49ers will not be focused for Carolina on a short work week with cross-country travel, and Kyle Shanahan has a poor track record as a large favorite.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This is probably stupid, but the Giants’ win over the Packers makes Carolina look better because the Panthers outplayed the Giants in Week 2.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps jumped on the Panthers on Sunday afternoon, dropping the line down from +6.5 to +6. The best +6 I see is for -105 vig at Bovada.

Philadelphia Eagles (4-0) at Arizona Cardinals (2-2)
Line: Eagles by 5.5. Total: 49.
Sunday, Oct. 9, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

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PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: There were some major misconceptions about Arizona’s defense last week. Listening to random DFS shows on YouTube, all I heard was that the Cardinals were atrocious against the pass, and while that was true based on the seasonal data, it wasn’t if the first game of the season was ignored. That was when Arizona was missing half of its roster versus Kansas City, so that result can be discarded. Thus, it was no surprise that the Cardinals’ defense put the clamps on Baker Mayfield.

Trying to stop this Eagles offense is a different animal, however, especially given that Philadelphia can attack Arizona where it is weakest. The Cardinals have issues in the middle of their defense, as tight ends have eaten them alive every week. That should continue in this contest, given that Dallas Goedert will be lining up on the other side of the ball. Pass-catching running backs have also given the Cardinals fits, so this bodes well for Miles Sanders and Kenneth Gainwell.

The Cardinals will have to neutralize Jalen Hurts by placing lots of pressure on him. Arizona has a potent pass rush, but Hurts is usually protected extremely well. However, the Eagles suffered some offensive line injuries versus Jacksonville, so if some blockers are out, the Cardinals might be able to win in the trenches. It’s also worth noting that the Cardinals blitz very often, and Hurts hasn’t been great versus the blitz this year. He’s just 17-of-34 for 184 yards, no touchdowns and an interception.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Of course, when discussing pressure, it’s difficult to ignore the Eagles’ defensive front. Philadelphia is fifth in pressure rate, which doesn’t bode well for an Arizona offense that doesn’t block well.

Kyler Murray is substantially worse when pressured, and while all quarterbacks obviously hate having pass rushers in their face, it’s extremely polarizing for Murray. When dealing with no pressure this year, Murray has zero turnover-worthy plays. While dealing with pass rushers, Murray’s turnover-worthy play percentage soars to 9.1 percent. That’s fourth-worst amongst all starters. Even Justin Fields has a lower turnover-worthy percentage!

I don’t see the Cardinals running on the Eagles to avoid this, but Murray could target Zach Ertz frequently. The Eagles have a tight end-funnel pass defense, and Ertz has performed very well in favorable matchups this year.

RECAP: This is not a great spot for the Eagles. They’ve just improved to 4-0, and they have to battle the Cowboys on national TV next week following this cross-country game.

It wouldn’t surprise me at all if the Eagles took this game for granted and ended up losing, especially if they end up missing some offensive linemen. Furthermore, we’re getting a bit of line value, as the advance spread on this game was Philadelphia -4. Four is a minor key number, but it’s still at least something, especially if Philadelphia is flat.

I’m not sure if I’m going to bet this game – I have found that playing NFL team psychologist tends to backfire more often than not – but I will be on Arizona as a side for office pools, at the very least. I’ll bet them if the Eagles have some offensive line injuries.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’ll let e-mailer Martin G. from Germany handle this one:

I have my concerns with your Cardinals vs. Eagles Pick this week. Justin Pugh and Rodney Hudson are dealing with health issues whereas Will Hernandez could possible be suspended for hitting an official in the back. This would completely wipe out the interior line of the Cardinals. So the backups would be: Sean Harlow, Billy Price (just signed) and Max Garcia. Harlow has a 0.0 PFF grade this season already and Price has multiple 0.0 PFF grades last year. Max Garcia is arguable the worst guard ever to play in the NFL and is just a very bad football player. In Germany we call player like Max Garcia a “revolving door.” So the Cardinals could be starting week 5 with arguable the worst interior offensive line line ever to step on the gridiron in NFL history with Harlow/Price/Garcia. I think you should factor in their backup line as a result of the many many many question marks in the Cardinals line heading into week 5.

I haven’t seen the full injury report yet, but this would definitely keep me off Arizona, and perhaps make me switch my pick to the Eagles.

SATURDAY NOTES: I considered this to be the most important injury report of the week because both teams had major injury question marks for their offensive line. The Eagles will be missing Jordan Mailata, but they’ll have Isaac Seumalo, so they’ll be fine. The Cardinals, conversely, will be without Max Garcia and Rodney Hudson for sure, and Justin Pugh was DNP-DNP-limited in practice this week, so even if he suits up, he probably won’t be 100 percent. D.J. Humphries is banged up as well, but he’ll probably play. Elsewhere, Trayvon Mullen missed Friday’s practice, which is not a good indicator for his availability.

I don’t know how the Cardinals are going to block the Eagles at all. Philadelphia already had a big edge in the trenches, and now that advantage is monstrous. The Cardinals were blown out at home in Week 1 versus the Chiefs because they were severely banged up, and this is looking a repeat of that game. My only concern with the Eagles is that they may look ahead to the Dallas game next week, but I’m going to switch my pick to them and bet three units.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I was told that this was a major Call of Duty weekend, which means Kyler Murray have been distracted. We’ll see if that holds up.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Justin Pugh will play, but the Cardinals won’t have their other two interior linemen, as well as cornerback Trayvon Mullen. I haven’t seen any indication of sharp action on either side. I’m not seeing anything better than -5.5 -110 across the board.

Dallas Cowboys (3-1) at Los Angeles Rams (2-2)
Line: Rams by 5.5. Total: 42.
Sunday, Oct. 9, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: TBA.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called a Very Crappy Day. Read about how my son s**t all over me one afternoon!

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: The Rams have endured issues scoring in two games this year. See if you can spot the trend. They’ve been limited by the 49ers and Bills, and they’ve beaten the Falcons and Cardinals.

Do you have the answer? Do you give up? I can’t tell because I can’t see your expression, but the answer is that the 49ers and Bills have an elite edge rush. Andrew Whitworth is no longer on the team, so Nick Bosa and Von Miller both generated lots of heat on Matthew Stafford, causing major problems for him. The Cowboys don’t have an elite defense overall, but between Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence, they’ll be able to bother Stafford, whose offensive line is dealing with some injuries.

Stafford should still have some success targeting Cooper Kupp and Tyler Higbee, but the successful offensive drives will be inconsistent until the Rams fix their offensive line issues. It’ll help if they get one of their two injured linemen back this week, but that might not be possible on a short work week.

DALLAS OFFENSE: It’s difficult to analyze the Cowboys at the moment because it’s unclear if Dak Prescott will return. Prescott says he wants to play, but we’ll have to see what the medical staff has to say.

If Prescott returns, he could be doing so way too early. Russell Wilson did this last year with the same injury, and his team was severely punished for it. It’s nice that players want to give it their all by joining their team prematurely following an injury, but it backfires more often than not. It would be in the Cowboys’ best interest if Prescott continued to rest because Cooper Rush has been doing a solid job in his place.

If forced to start again, Rush should do well against a Rams defense that has some issues. Their pass rush isn’t as good with Von Miller gone, while the secondary is dealing with multiple injuries. With Michael Gallup and Dalton Schultz back into the lineup, Rush has a plethora of capable weapons of exposing the Rams’ defensive backfield.

RECAP: I’ll have to re-visit this game later in the week once we know Prescott’s status. If Prescott starts, I want nothing to do with the Cowboys because he could play like Wilson did last year upon his return. That’ll make it unlikely that the Cowboys will cover because the spread will be reduced.

Conversely, if Rush starts, we’ll have a nice betting opportunity with the Cowboys with I assume with be an expanded spread. Dallas will continue to be priced down because they’re starting a backup quarterback, which is great because the Cowboys defense will cause problems for Stafford like in the blowout losses to the 49ers and Bills. Perhaps the Rams will be healthier this Sunday, but they’ll be operating on a short work week, which will make it difficult for them to fix their issues.

For the official pick and unit count, check back later or follow @walterfootball for updates. I honestly don’t know which side I’m taking yet, as it’ll be dictated by Prescott’s status and the rest of the injury report.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Dak Prescott is likely out for another week. This news caused the line to rise by a point. I’m a bit disappointed we’re not seeing six, but that’s likely for a reason.

SATURDAY NOTES: This wasn’t a kind injury report for the Cowboys. Jason Peters is out, while Tony Pollard missed Friday’s practice with an illness. More importantly, the Rams will be getting David Edwards back from injury, and cornerback David Long could be back as well. Jordan Fuller won’t play, but the Rams will be looking better this week overall than they did Monday night against a worse opponent. I don’t see the justification for this line dropping through two key numbers, from -7 to -5.5. I like the Rams and will be betting them.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This line dropped from +5.5 to +5 on Sunday morning. I wonder if that’s because Tony Pollard is expected to be active. I still like the Rams.

FINAL THOUGHTS: While the Rams’ offensive line is healthier, the secondary is worse off than I thought because both Taylor Rapp and David Long will be out today. I’m a bit less confident in the Rams, but I still like them as a nice value side. I’m on them for two units. The best line is -5 -110 across the board. The sharps have taken both sides of this game.

Cincinnati Bengals (2-2) at Baltimore Ravens (2-2)
Line: Ravens by 3. Total: 47.5.
Sunday, Oct. 9, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Bengals.

Here’s the Top Stocks to Buy page, where I told you about GameStop two years ago and then AMC. It will be updated once per week, or sooner if there is any emergency news.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Joe Burrow destroyed the Ravens last year, and that is an understatement. In two games versus Baltimore, Burrow was a combined 60-of-84 for 941 yards, seven touchdowns and an interception. That’s disgusting. It’s hard to believe those numbers were generated in two games, but that’s exactly what happened.

Burrow told the media that he likes playing against the Ravens because they “talk,” it’s more that they blitz very frequently. Despite his young age, Burrow is incredible versus the blitz. Baltimore’s secondary is having some issues as well, so this just bodes incredibly well for Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.

The Ravens are better against the run than the pass, so Joe Mixon won’t run nearly as well. However, the Ravens can be beaten with pass-catching backs, and Mixon is certainly capable of generating yardage in that regard. I also expect Hayden Hurst to have a nice performance.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Ravens figure to thrive against the Bengals as well. They scored just 38 points against Cincinnati in two matchups last year, but they had offensive line issues weighing down their offense. That’s not really a huge factor anymore, especially if Ronnie Stanley makes his return this week. It seems as though Stanley has been close to suiting up, so perhaps this will be the week he’s finally able to take the field.

Stanley will be needed against a Cincinnati defensive line that generates a good pass rush. If Stanley can’t play, Jackson will deal with plenty of pressure, but at least he won’t see much of the blitz, which is always a problem for him. Jackson will obviously be able to escape pressure and beat Cincinnati with his legs.

Jackson will be the only one running successfully, given that Cincinnati happens to be seventh versus the rush. J.K. Dobbins looked better last week than he did in his debut the prior Sunday, but he won’t find much running room in this contest.

RECAP: Given that the Ravens continue to deploy a blitz-heavy defense, I’ll be backing the Bengals in this matchup. It’s just way too much of an advantage for Burrow. Furthermore, the Bengals are coming off extra time to prepare, which is a nice bonus.

I’ll be betting several units on the Bengals as long as this line is +3. The most likely results between two close teams is three both ways, and we get the win or the push with Cincinnati. That said, I’m not sure these teams are very close if Burrow’s blitz advantage is taken into account.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Ronnie Stanley practiced fully on Wednesday, so perhaps he’ll return for this extremely important divisional game. Either way, I still like the Bengals.

SATURDAY NOTES: Two injuries of note for the Ravens: Rashod Bateman is out, so Lamar Jackson has no viable downfield threats. Also, Marcus Peters missed Friday’s practice with a quad. The Bengals are looking even better. I’m bumping up the units to four.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps took the Bengals at +3.5. I’m not seeing that line anymore.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Ugh, what a horrible day. Let’s hope the bleeding continues with the Bengals covering tonight. I like them, though the Ravens will be getting Ronnie Stanley back from injury. Marcus Peters will play as well. The sharps were on Cincinnati at +3.5, as mentioned earlier, but not at +3. The best line is +3 -105 at BetUS and Bovada.

Las Vegas Raiders (1-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (3-1)
Line: Chiefs by 7. Total: 51.5.
Monday, Oct. 10, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to Kansas City, the capital of Kansas! Tonight, we have a matchup between the Oakland Raiders and Kansas City Chiefs. Guys, Andy Reid is a total fraud. He sucked on purpose at the end when he was with the Eagles, and now he’s coaching good because he’s with the Chiefs. He did this because I’m an Eagles fan and he hates me! Well, I hate him! The producers told to me to be more unbiased, and I’m trying my hardest, what do you think!?

Emmitt: Nick Reilly, I wish I could telled you if you’re being underbiased, but I do not know the definitions of this word. It probably the opposite of overbiased, which also do not knowed the defintion. Maybe if I have the dictionarysaurus rex, the book that telled you definition of all word, I can telled you if you underbiased or overbiased, but right now I blabbergasted.

Reilly: Emmitt, I’d like to thank you for calling me Nick Reilly because Nick Foles is my superhero. I have his poster over my bed in my bedroom. I wish I could see it, but Mother kicked me out of the house ever since my brother Jay Reilly Jr. was born. I’ve been dreaming of that Nick Foles poster while I’ve been sleeping under the producer’s desk at the broadcasting headquarters. The one time I didn’t was when the secretary was sleeping under the producer’s desk. She was making some sucking sound while the producer was sitting in his chair, and I almost wanted to tell her how stupid she was for making sounds, but the producer didn’t seem to notice.

Tollefson: Kevin, you fool, she was giving the producer some head! Look, I’d invite you to sleep on the couch in my apartment, but what’s going to happen when one of my naked female slaves is asked to clean the couch? You understand the conflict, I bet.

Reilly: Tolly, I understand, Mother says I’ll go to Hell if I talk to ladies, especially naked ones. But what you’re saying doesn’t make any sense. How can the secretary give the producer head? Is she like Mr. Potato Man, and her head pops off? I can’t think how she could possibly give it to him otherwise. You must be playing some kind of joke on me, but I’m going to ask the secretary if she can give me her head too.

Adam Schefter: Kevin, I have breaking news for you, straight from Stpehen Jones’ desk, Kevin. Our producer, who is now under investigation for inappropriate conduct in the work place, has been asked to take a leave of absence, Kevin. Remember, Kevin, I broke this news, Kevin, and not you, and if you claim that you broke this news, Kevin, I’ll send some muscle to your house because no one is allowed to break news except me, OK, bub?

Reilly: Whoa, calm down, I don’t even know what news you’re talking about. What’s this big deal about the secretary giving her head to the boss? Would I get into trouble if I gave my head to the boss? What about if I gave my head to Roger Goodell?

Goodell: Greetings, fellow hu-man announcer. I see you are discussing giving specific body parts, fellow hu-man. As a fellow hu-man, I, too, like giving hu-man body parts. My favorite hu-man body part to give to people is – randomizing – buttocks. I am hu-man because I love to give my buttocks to other hu-man.

Joe Biden: You know what, fat, when it comes to giving body parts to other people, I’m your guy. Do you know how many lockets of hair I have that I sell to people? I sell them when I listen to the walkman at night, I mean record player. I have so many lockets of hair, that, you know, when the kids come to touch my hairy legs, I take some hair from my hairy legs and mix it with the hair from the kids, and then I take some hair from my daughter Ashley, when I shower, and she says, “No, daddy, don’t touch me like that,” and I say, “Listen here, Esther, I’m gonna put y’all in chains if you don’t let the kids at the pool touch my hairy legs,” and then we met in the parking lot and I sold him some lockets of hair, and he became my best customer.

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, did anyone hear what Sleepy Joe just said? Excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe has been selling lockets of hair, and he hasn’t been paying taxes, which is a total disgrace, I always pay my taxes, in fact, no one has ever paid more taxes me than me, not even Elon Musk, I call him Little Elon Musk because he’s very little, like the size of a pocket square, has anyone ever seen this, “Little Elon,” I call him, Little Elon said he paid the most taxes ever last year, but that’s a total lie, total disgrace, I paid more taxes, more than anyone has ever seen or can ever imagine, that’s what I was told anyway, but the corrupt mainstream media, they want to see my taxes, but where are the taxes of Rachel Maddow, Little Rachel, I call her, what a great nickname, Little Rachel Maddow because she’s so little that Little Rachel Maddow.

Wolfley: DONALD, EXCUSE ME, BUT I WOULD LIKE TO PURCHASE A LOCKET OF HAIR FROM JOE BIDEN. IF I COLLECT LOCKETS OF HAIR FROM SIX DIFFERENT PRESIDENTS, I WIN A COUPON FOR A FREE ICE CREAM TRUCK WITH LIPS.

Reilly: Guys, shut up with your nonsense, I still don’t know why the producer got into trouble because the secretary gave him her head. I still don’t get it. Can I give people my head? Do you want my head, New Daddy?

Jay Cutler: Haha, this is the best moment of my life.

Reilly: Even better than the birth of your new son, New Daddy? I’m honored! I’m going to give my head to everyone!

Charles Davis: Kevin, I have different things you can give in addition to head, Kevin. How about you give some brain, Kevin? What do you think about giving some dome, Kevin? Let’s debate giving some hat, Kevin. Why not give some top, Kevin?

Reilly: Wow, thanks, Charles Davis! You’re often a jerk to me, so I’m surprised that you’re being so nice now. Maybe I’ll give you some brain and dome and hat after the game! We’ll be back after this!

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Patrick Mahomes was unstoppable against the Buccaneers. He scored on almost every possession, with the two exceptions being on drives that ended in drops. He was battling the NFL’s No. 1 statistical defense, so the Chiefs’ 41-point output Sunday night was incredibly impressive.

Mahomes has routinely demolished the Raiders, but there’s a chance things could be different in this matchup. Mahomes’ success versus the Raiders stemmed from Las Vegas’ habit of blitzing frequently. Mahomes is incredible versus the blitz, so it’s no wonder that he thrived against the Raiders. However, Las Vegas has a new defensive coordinator who doesn’t blitz nearly as often. The Raiders can get to the quarterback with just four players, so there’s no need to do this.

Furthermore, the Raiders, who struggled versus the run heading into Week 4, improved in that regard because of Denzel Perryman’s return. Perryman missed Weeks 2 and 3, but his return was welcome, at least until he suffered a concussion. His availability will be important because he’ll help prevent the Kansas City backs from establishing control.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: The Raiders also received some help on this side of the ball last week, with Andre James returning from a two-game absence as well. The Raider offensive line was atrocious in the two games James missed, but his presence made things so much better in the trenches.

James’ presence will be key in this contest, as Derek Carr will need all the protection he can get against Kansas City’s defense, which is fifth in pressure rate. If Carr gets time, he’ll be able to connect with Davante Adams and Darren Waller. The latter figures to do well because the Chiefs struggle to cover tight ends.

Something the Chiefs don’t struggle to do is stop the run. I wouldn’t expect Josh Jacobs to do much against the Chiefs, who have been stellar versus the rush all year.

RECAP: If the Raiders were coached like they were in the past, I’d be on the Chiefs because Las Vegas’ tendency to blitz often would backfire. As mentioned, however, the Raiders have a new defensive coordinator who doesn’t blitz. The new defensive coordinator is Patrick Graham, whose defense greatly frustrated Mahomes in a Monday night affair when he was with the Giants last year.

I expect the Raiders to keep this close, especially with the Chiefs coming off such an emotional victory. Mahomes had the Tampa game circled for nearly two years. He achieved revenge, and now what? I don’t think the Raiders, a 1-3 squad he routinely defeats, will be on his radar, especially with the Bills on the schedule next week.

It’s always scary to go against Mahomes, but perhaps less so now that he doesn’t have Tyreek Hill. I’ll be betting a couple of units on the Raiders.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I had some Chiefs fans on Facebook tell me that their team wouldn’t look past the Raiders. I don’t think it’s definite that they would, but I believe it’s a slight possibility. But even if the Chiefs are focused, I still like the Raiders because of the matchup and inflated spread.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Raiders are even healthier this week, as Hunter Renfrow and Rock Ya-Sin will be back from injury. This should be a close game, so I like them to cover for two units.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Nothing new since Saturday evening. I still like the Raiders. It sucks the teaser is dead because of the dumb Packers.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Chiefs will be missing Trey Smith tonight, which only helps the Raiders bet. I still like the Raiders for a couple of units, though I’m not in love with the wager. The sharps haven’t taken a side. The best line is +7 -105 at Bovada.