NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 4, 2022

Miami Dolphins (3-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-2)
Line: Bengals by 3.5. Total: 47.
Thursday, Sept. 29, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Bengals.

Week 3 Analysis: This was the best week I’ve ever had on the site. The picks were 11-4-1 for +$2,825. I was hoping to finish above $3,000 for the first time during a single week, but the stupid Giants couldn’t cooperate on Monday night. I’ll continue to break down all the 3+ unit picks each week:

Bengals, 5 units (win): This one was never in doubt. I still can’t believe the line was so low.

Lions, 4 units (win): The only bet I lost on Sunday was the Lions moneyline, which easily could’ve hit, and probably should have. Still, this cover was never in doubt either.

Colts, 4 units (win): Wow, we got lucky with this one. So many things had to happen for the Colts to cover, and they all did.

Broncos, 5 units (win): I didn’t think we’d get this one, but thanks to some unexpected Russell Wilson magic, and some 49ers turnovers, the five-unit bet on Denver cashed.

Before I begin, I should note that we have some new features, including WalterFootball Premium. We’ve gotten lots of complaints about the ads over the years, but there hasn’t been anything I can do about them because I’ve needed the ad revenue to pay my employees and the hosting. This is an alternative way to view the site. For $7.99 per month, you won’t get any ads. You’ll also have access to a premium chat where I’ll be every day to answer any questions. The chat will be available soon. If you want to support the site, besides telling others about it, signing up for WalterFootball Premium would be a great way to do so!

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Both teams are dealing with injury issues entering this game. For the Bengals, Tee Higgins will likely be sidelined with a concussion he suffered in the second quarter of Sunday’s game. Higgins is very talented, but he won’t be missed all that much because Cincinnati still has plenty of weapons. Tyler Boyd stepped in and had a big game against the Jets, so he, Ja’Marr Chase, and Hayden Hurst will provide Joe Burrow with plenty of firepower.

Speaking of Burrow, he’ll need time in the pocket to thrive, as he has been pressured very frequently this season. He’s in luck concerning this matchup because no team has a worse pressure rate than the Dolphins this year. Miami is getting to the quarterback on just eight percent of snaps, so Burrow will have more time than usual in the pocket.

Perhaps Burrow will utilize Joe Mixon like the Bills did with Devin Singletary this past Sunday. Singletary had a career receiving day, and Mixon is more talented than the Buffalo back.

MIAMI OFFENSE: The injury concerning the Dolphins is to Tua Tagovailoa. The Dolphin quarterback appeared to suffer a concussion against the Bills, but he is now dealing with back and ankle issues. He could play, but he may not be 100 percent.

The Bengals are better at getting to the quarterback than the Dolphins, by default of course, but they’ll still be able to generate pressure on Tagovailoa. They’ll need to because Miami’s dynamic receivers have matchup edges against the Cincinnati corners.

Cincinnati won’t have to worry about the rushing attack, which will be a huge boon to its chances of containing Miami. The Dolphins have no running game to speak of, which may explain why they have 307 net yards or fewer in two of their three contests this year.

RECAP: I did not expect this sort of spread. The advance line was Cincinnati -2. The Dolphins beat the Bills, so I expected this spread to shrink, perhaps enough to see Miami as a road favorite. Instead, this spread opened at -3 and has since moved to -3.5!

I love fading overreactions, but we won’t be able to do that in this instance because we’re not getting any value. I imagine this is the case because Tagovailoa is a question mark to play. If he suits up, we may see this line shrink back to -3, and if so, I may have a small wager on the Bengals. At -3.5, I’ll still be on Cincinnati, but I don’t think I’ll be betting that.

Our Week 4 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps are split on this one, betting the Bengals at -3.5 and Dolphins at +4. I’ll likely be on the Bengals for two units. Tee Higgins will play, while the Dolphins are going to be exhausted because their defense was on the field for 90 snaps in 90-degree heat.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m going to be on the Bengals for two units. They’re completely healthy, save for D.J. Reader, while the Dolphins will be exhausted from the Bills game. The sharps agree, as most of their wagers are on Cincinnati -3.5 or lower. The best line is currently -4 at most sportsbooks, including Bookmaker and Bovada.

Minnesota Vikings (2-1) vs. New Orleans Saints (1-2)
Line: Vikings by 3. Total: 41.5.
Sunday, Oct. 2, 9:30 AM
at London


The Matchup. Edge: None.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The Vikings struggled offensively for most of last week’s game, but were able to put together a final drive to prevail over the Lions. Still, if they had issues scoring against Detroit, they’ll have their work cut out for them versus the Saints.

New Orleans is great at stopping the run, so the Vikings won’t have an opportunity to establish either Dalvin Cook or Alexander Mattison. The Saints also have Marshon Lattimore, who can slow down Justin Jefferson. The elite receiver had a huge Week 1, but hasn’t done much since. That could continue to be the case in this game, given that Lattimore shut down Mike Evans and D.J. Moore in consecutive weeks, so Kirk Cousins will have to target Adam Thielen and K.J. Osborn more than usual.

Cousins should at least have time in the pocket to locate his secondary and tertiary weapons. The Saints don’t have a high pressure rate, and Cousins has taken only four sacks this year.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Jameis Winston had major problems with his back in Week 2, as he struggled to put everything into his throws. The result was a meager three-point performance versus the Buccaneers in a game the Saints could have won if he were healthy. Winston wasn’t quite himself this past week either, but he looked much better than he did against Tampa Bay.

Assuming Winston continues to trend positively, he should have a strong performance in this game. The Vikings have big problems in their secondary, so they don’t match up well with all the firepower New Orleans possesses at receiver. Michael Thomas is banged up, but even if he sits, the Saints still have Jarvis Landry and Chris Olave, who is making lots of big plays.

The Vikings also have to deal with Alvin Kamara in the backfield. The Vikings are only mediocre versus the run, and Kamara, like Winston, will be healthier this week because he’ll be further removed from the injury that caused him to miss that Tampa game. He’ll also be looking to redeem himself for the lost fumble returned for a touchdown at Carolina.

RECAP: Everyone is betting the Vikings as if this is easy money. The Saints haven’t covered the spread this year, after all, so they’re absolutely toxic for casual bettors. Minnesota, bringing a 2-1 record into this game, is seemingly the superior team.

I don’t think I agree with that. The Saints were the better team in the past two weeks, but they lost to the Buccaneers because Winston was extremely limited with his back injury. They then were defeated in Carolina because of numerous miscues, including a fumble returned for a touchdown, a blocked field goal, a missed field goal, and an interception that was tipped at the line of scrimmage.

Winston performed better in Week 3, so there is no reason to fade the Saints. They’re undervalued, and they’re also the more desperate team because they’re entering with a 1-2 record. I plan on betting heavily on them.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There was some chatter that Jameis Winston might miss this game, but that is likely not true. Even if he does, it wouldn’t be the worst thing because the Saints would have a healthier quarterback under center.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Saints have some significant injuries. Jameis Winston, Michael Thomas and Andrus Peat are ruled out, while Alvin Kamara and Jarvis Landry were both limited in practice. Kamara will probably play, but everyone is focusing on Winston being sidelined. I actually think that’s the least significant of the injuries because I’d rather have a healthy Andy Dalton on the field than an injured Winston. I like backing good teams with backup quarterbacks, and as long as Kamara and most of the defensive players on the field, I’d say the Saints qualify as a good team. We’re also getting +3 -105 right now, and we might see +3.5 by Sunday.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Alvin Kamara is out, which is a huge deal. Kamara was set to be the centerpiece of the Saints offense today with Andy Dalton starting at quarterback. I envisioned Dalton checking the ball down to Kamara frequently, much like Drew Brees used to do, but now that’ll be Mark Ingram, who is just blegh. I still like the Saints a little bit, but not nearly as much. I’m betting one unit on the +4 -105 at Bovada. There was sharp money on the Vikings at -2.5, but not so much since.

Tennessee Titans (1-2) at Indianapolis Colts (1-1-1)
Line: Colts by 4. Total: 43.
Sunday, Oct. 2, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides are now 4-6 this year.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Ravens -2.5

Bengals -6.5

Chiefs -5.5

49ers PK

Falcons +1

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Vikings -3

Chiefs -3

Raiders -2.5

Cowboys -3

The Raiders are surprising. The Vikings and Chiefs are not, as the Saints and Buccaneers are a bit toxic right now after being a combined 2-4 against the spread this year. Dallas especially is not after its big win on Monday night.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: I sent the following text to @QuackyTakes during the Colts-Chiefs game: “Matt Ryan sucks!” We had the Colts in our joint Supercontest entry, and Ryan was fumbling the game away, as two of his lost fumbles on strip-sacks turned into 14 Kansas City points. Ryan also struggled to move the chains until a miraculous final drive that was aided by a foolish Chris Jones personal foul penalty.

Ryan should perform better in this game. His interior offensive line should be able to keep Jeffery Simmons from completely dominating the game, while Tennessee’s cornerbacks will have issues dealing with Michael Pittman Jr.

Of course, Ryan may not have to do very much if he just hands the ball off to Jonathan Taylor. The Titans are very weak to the run, which is something the Raiders couldn’t fully expose last week because of the early deficit and the weakness of their offensive line. Taylor had a huge performance in Week 1, and he could replicate that this Sunday.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: The Colts have the opposite problem defensively. The Titans can generate pressure but struggle to stop the run, while Indianapolis is great at clamping down on the rush, but gets no heat on opposing quarterbacks. The Colts actually have the No. 1 rush defense in the NFL, which obviously bodes well in a matchup versus Derrick Henry.

That said, the Titans can still get a productive game out of Henry by continuing to utilize him as a receiver out of the backfield. They did this masterfully last week versus the Raiders. The Colts will be equipped to deal with this if Shaq Leonard finally makes his 2022 debut, but it’s unclear if that’ll happen.

As mentioned, Indianapolis doesn’t get to the quarterback at all, so Ryan Tannehill will have a chance to thrive. He doesn’t have the best receivers at his disposal, but each week, Robert Woods is getting healthier, and Treylon Burks is gaining more experience. Tannehill should have another decent performance.

RECAP: Both teams prevailed last week, but one victory was far more impressive than the other. The Titans had an easier opponent in the Raiders, but they absolutely dismantled Las Vegas. They only won by two, but they were way ahead for most of the afternoon prior to garbage time. Meanwhile, the Colts upset the Chiefs, but needed a myriad of unbelievable lucky plays to prevail.

Thus, I believe that if there is some value in this matchup, it’s with the Titans. Tennessee tends to play better as an underdog anyhow, and it has dominated this rivalry in recent years, winning four of the previous five matchups. I think the most likely results of this game are either team winning by three, so that means we’re getting the win and the push by selecting the Titans. I’ll pick Tennessee for that reason, though I don’t really see a reason to bet this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I haven’t come up with any new angles regarding this game. I’m likely staying away.

SATURDAY NOTES: Both teams will be missing key defenders, with Zach Cunningham and Julian Blackmon out for the Titans and Colts, respectively. This line has risen to -3.5, thanks to sharp money on Indianapolis. I still hate this game and don’t plan on betting it.

FINAL THOUGHTS: If you like the Titans, they’re +4 at Bookmaker. If you want to bet the Colts, they’re -3.5 -112 at FanDuel. I am not touching this game. The sharps liked the Colts at the opening number.

Chicago Bears (2-1) at New York Giants (2-1)
Line: Giants by 3. Total: 38.5.
Sunday, Oct. 2, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. This is from our resident conquistador:



Well, well, well, what a surprise that Puddles is a supporter of Kim Jung Un. I should have known.

Here’s a reply I made to a dumb blue check on Twitter:



Wow, what a self burn. This guy outed himself as having an STD, so I doubt he’ll be laid any time soon.

Here’s another Twitter reply from the spring:



Well, it’s been 22 years of running the site, and this SznLindor guy finally figured out my strategy!

CHICAGO OFFENSE: The Bears need to be able to run the ball to generate any sort of offense. This is because the coaching staff doesn’t trust Justin Fields at all. There were two occasions last week when Chicago was in a third-and-9ish situation in the opening half, and the coaching staff called for a run. At the end of the first half, the Bears had 40 seconds on the clock and all three timeouts at their own 29, but the coaches were content to go to halftime.

This is a horrible attitude for any coaching staff to have, but I can at least understand why the Bears are acting this way. They have zero faith in the offensive line protecting Justin Fields. Their blocking unit is a mess, and it will continue to be so throughout the duration of this season. The Giants don’t normally generate lots of pressure, but when they do, it’s via the blitz. Against the blitz this year, Fields is 1-of-9 for 18 yards, one touchdown and an interception. Ouch.

So, the question is: Will the Bears be able to run on the Giants? The Cowboys were certainly able to do so, as was Christian McCaffrey in Week 1. The Giants are 28th in rush defense, so this bodes well for either David Montgomery or Khalil Herbert.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The same question can be asked of the Giants’ rushing attack in this game. Like the Bears, New York has severe issues with protection. Daniel Jones had no chance in the pocket during the Monday night loss to Dallas.

The Cowboys have an elite pass rush, so you’d think Jones would have a reprieve in this contest. That, however, is not the case because the Bears are third in pressure rate, and unlike the Giants, they don’t blitz often. Jones has to be disappointed by this because he’s actually better when blitzed.

So, the question is: Will the Giants be able to run on the Bears? The answer is yes, as Chicago has allowed big performances to Aaron Jones and Dameon Pierce in consecutive weeks. Saquon Barkley is back to his former self, so he’ll have a huge game.

RECAP: I have no interest in this matchup. I think the Bears are probably the right side because the Giants are playing on a short work week, which means they won’t have enough time to make adjustments from their initial loss. Also, the most likely result of this game is likely Giants by three.

However, I also have no desire to bet this dreadful Chicago team. I’ll just move on because I have nothing else to say about this contest.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Some sharp money on the Bears has dropped this line down to +3. Good luck, sharps, I’m not betting this one.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Giants will be missing some key players like Leonard Williams, Sterling Shepard and Kadarius Toney. It makes sense that the sharps are betting the Bears, but that’s not a wager I’d like to make.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Bears at +3.5, but not so much at +3. I’m still not touching this game, but if you’re looking to join in on the sharp movement, the best Chicago line is +3 -115 at FanDuel.

Buffalo Bills (2-1) at Baltimore Ravens (2-1)
Line: Bills by 3. Total: 50.5.
Sunday, Oct. 2, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Bills had so many opportunities to beat the Dolphins, but they constantly shot themselves in the foot. Gabe Davis dropped a touchdown. Matt Milano dropped an easy pick-six. Tyler Bass missed a field goal from 38. A Buffalo personal foul penalty gave the Dolphins a free first-and-goal on the Buffalo 5-yard line, which the Dolphins were able to transform into a Chase Edmonds touchdown to take the lead, 21-17. Josh Allen then didn’t see Devin Singletary open for a touchdown, and he skipped a pass to Isaiah McKenzie on the ensuing fourth down.

The Bills were playing in unberable heat on a short week, and they were also missing seven starters. They won’t have to deal with the heat this week, and they should have some starters back injury. This includes center Mitch Morse. This doesn’t really include Davis, who wasn’t quite himself in the loss to Miami.

Allen will have most of his supporting cast available, which obviously bodes poorly for the Ravens. Baltimore doesn’t get much pressure on the quarterback, and when it does, it has to blitz frequently. This is music to Allen’s ears because against the blitz this year, Allen is 30-of-41 for 382 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Unlike the Ravens, the Bills can apply tons of pressure on the quarterback with their Von Miller-led front. It seemed like they might have a huge advantage in Miami when Terron Armstead was very questionable heading into the game, but Armstead ended up playing.

It seems unlikely that the Ravens will have Ronnie Stanley available, so this favors Buffalo greatly. The Bills will need to generate lots of heat on Lamar Jackson because of the issues they have in their secondary. They’re missing Micah Hyde, Tre’Davious White and Dane Jackson. Jordan Poyer was out as well last week, but there’s a chance he’ll return to action this Sunday.

The Bills will need Poyer and also Ed Oliver back to help deal with Jackson, who is playing out of his mind right now. Jackson is the front-runner for MVP right now, and it seems impossible to contain him as a runner.

RECAP: As mentioned, the Bills were down seven starters against the Dolphins. They weren’t quite themselves, and yet they doubled up the Dolphins in yardage and dominated the time of possession. They got in their own way as far as winning the game at the very end, crushing themselves with stupid mistakes.

I suspect the Bills will have some of their seven starters back in the lineup, so they’ll be a better team this week. Furthermore, they’ll be very focused coming off a loss. I love betting on elite quarterbacks coming off defeats, and Josh Allen qualifies in that category. I’d say Allen became an elite signal-caller in his third season. Since then, he’s 5-3-1 against the spread after losing, and he’s currently on a 5-1-1 ATS run in that regard. The lone loss was in the overtime affair against the Buccaneers last year.

Allen will be at his best in this game, and I expect the defense to perform well, too. Jackson is on fire right now, but the Bills have a fierce pass rush that will make things difficult for him. Unless Stanley overcomes injury and suddenly races onto the field, Jackson could be forced into some mistakes by Buffalo’s elite pressure rate.

I hate -3.5 lines, as they are the least-profitable number in the NFL, but I’m still going to be on the Bills. This will be a two- or three-unit wager, depending on the injury report.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I am removing my units from this game. I still like the Bills a bit, but some of the players were talking about how they were never so exhausted after a game, and that they needed IVs during the early stages of the week. This might be why the sharps have jumped on the Ravens.

SATURDAY NOTES: Both teams seem to have injury concerns. The Bills are down a bunch of cornerbacks, and possibly Jordan Poyer, Mitch Morse, Gabe Davis, and Ed Oliver. The Ravens, meanwhile, will be missing their first, third and fourth tackles against Buffalo’s amazing pass rush. I think this benefits Buffalo, but not enough to overcome the possible fatigue from the Miami game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I worry about the Bills being fatigued, and I think the sharps have the same concern because they bet the Ravens at +3.5. However, Buffalo will have Mitch Morse, Jordan Poyer and Dane Jackson back from injury, so I still like the Bills a bit.

Los Angeles Chargers (1-2) at Houston Texans (0-2-1)
Line: Chargers by 5.5. Total: 45.
Sunday, Oct. 2, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Props page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: I can’t believe Justin Herbert played last week. When the spread and total moved four and five points, respectively, on Friday, I assumed Herbert would be sidelined. He showed great fortitude to play, but it was a foolish decision because he wasn’t nearly himself. He also could have re-injured himself, which would have been a complete disaster for the rest of the season.

However, it’s a new week, and Herbert is receiving great medical treatment. It seems likely that he’ll be healthier in this game, and the same can be said of his supporting cast, save for left tackle Rashawn Slater, who is out for the year. Herbert missed Keenan Allen and center Corey Linsley last week, and both could return this Sunday. He’ll need Linsley back on the field with Slater sidelined, especially against a Houston defense that has the fifth-highest pressure rate in the NFL. That number is a bit inflated by the matchup against the Bears, so I like Herbert’s chances of being protected as long as he’s not missing multiple offensive linemen.

Of course, the Chargers can relieve pressure from Herbert by establishing the run. The Texans are dreadful when it comes to stopping opposing rushers, as they just allowed Khalil Herbert to have a monstrous performance. Perhaps the Chargers will finally unleash Austin Ekeler, who has disappointed thus far.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: The Chargers could have some key players returning to this side of the ball as well. They were missing J.C. Jackson to begin last week’s game, and they lost Joey Bosa to a groin injury during the contest. Bosa’s status is unclear, but Jackson seemed close to playing last week, so he could be back to help limit Brandin Cooks.

Bosa’s status will be important because the Texans have two strong tackles. Bosa and Khalil Mack will be needed to help rattle Davis Mills, who cost his team with a horrible interception at the end of last week’s game.

The Texans would love to limit Mills’ mistakes by running heavily, which is what they did in last year’s matchup. Rex Burkhead looked like the second coming of Earl Campbell in that game, but I wouldn’t expect Dameon Pierce to have a similar result. The Chargers have improved against the run this year, so they’ll limit Pierce. They’re not stout versus the rush, but being in the middle of the pack is a big jump from last season.

RECAP: What casual bettor wants to wager on the Chargers right now? People just saw the Chargers get demolished by the Jaguars, and as far as everyone knows, Herbert is not healthy.

Well, a week can be an eternity for professional athletes and their access to elite medical care. Herbert is likely going to be much better in this game than he was in the previous one, which obviously bodes extremely well for his outlook. There’s also a good chance that Herbert will have many of his injured starters back in the lineup. Slater is obviously not one of them, but players like Keenan Allen, J.C. Jackson and Linsley could all return.

With that in mind, I expect the Chargers to be so much better than they were last week. Given that they’re coming off a defeat, and their loss in Houston late last year, they’ll be fully focused to avoid moving to 1-3. We’ll get their “A” effort, which should be more than enough to cover a spread that has shrunk since it was released prior to the Week 3 games. The advance line was Chargers -7, and now it’s -5. We’re getting two key numbers, which is incredible value.

Assuming I’m right about the injury report, the Chargers will be one of my top bets of the week. This reminds me of last Sunday’s Bengals-Jets affair. One of the better teams in the NFL was looking to redeem itself versus a dreadful opponent on a reduced point spread. This almost seems too easy.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’s early, but Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, Corey Linsley and J.C. Jackson were all limited Wednesday, which is a good sign for their availability.

SATURDAY NOTES: Keenan Allen is sidelined, but J.C. Jackson will return to the lineup. Corey Linsley seems to have a good shot as well; he was diagnosed as “rest” on Friday, so that tells me that he’ll suit up. Also, Justin Herbert put together two full practices on Thursday and Friday, and he wasn’t on the injury report. The sharps have moved this line to -6 -105 in most sportsbooks, but you can still get -5.5 at FanDuel, which I’ll lock in now.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Corey Linsley is back, which is a big deal. The sharps bet the Chargers at -5 and -5.5. This line is -6 in most places, but you can get -5.5 -115 at FanDuel, which is worth it because six is a big key number.

Seattle Seahawks (1-2) at Detroit Lions (1-2)
Line: Lions by 3.5. Total: 48.5.
Sunday, Oct. 2, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Seahawks.

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DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions looked great last week until they suffered some injuries. Both D’Andre Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown got hurt, which really limited the offense toward the end of the game. Both remained on the field, but both players were clearly limited. The result was the Vikings mounting a comeback and prevailing at the very end.

Swift will miss this game, while St. Brown’s status is unknown. He’ll probably play, but will he be 100 percent? If not, it could be difficult for the Lions to move the chains consistently, as St. Brown is the focal point of their passing offense. The Seahawks don’t do much well on this side of the ball, but they can generate a heavy pass rush, which might rattle Jared Goff if he can’t consistently pepper his No. 1 receiver with targets.

The Lions can avoid all of this, however, by constantly feeding the ball to Jamaal Williams. It’s a good thing that they still have a capable running back because the Seahawks are dreadful versus the rush. Williams will be able to exploit this liability.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Seahawks also have problems on this side of the ball. Geno Smith isn’t even that much of an issue compared to everything else, as he has played well in two of the three games this year. He’s completing a high number of his passes, and he’s not making mistakes.

The Lions, however, have a top-10 pass rush, thanks to Aidan Hutchinson’s presence. Smith doesn’t receive quality blocking from his offensive line, so Detroit will be able to flood the backfield. That said, this could backfire if they blitz, which they do frequently. Smith has been masterful against the blitz this year, going 22-of-25 for 204 yards and two touchdowns this year. Only the Cardinals and Broncos blitz more often than the Lions.

The Seahawks should have success establishing Rashaad Penny and perhaps Kenneth Walker as well. The Lions have a poor run defense, and Pete Carroll loves feeding the ball to his backs.

RECAP: I’m very curious about Detroit’s injury report. We know the Lions will be missing Swift and Walker. St. Brown could be out, and the same might be said of some offensive linemen. If Detroit is missing a couple of other players in addition to Swift and Walker, I am probably going to be backing Seattle.

I know, I know, I just puked a bit in my mouth, but I have no interest in backing an injury-ravaged team favored by nearly a touchdown. The Lions being shorthanded will open up a back-door opportunity for the Seahawks. Just look at what happened in Week 2. The Redskins trimmed a 25-point deficit against Detroit to nine, and that was with the Lions being mostly healthy. The Lions have defensive weaknesses that will make it for the opposition to mount a comeback. That’ll be even easier if they’re missing numerous starters.

Check back later in the week to see what the injury report looks like. If the Lions have everyone, minus Swift and Walker, I’ll have no issues backing them. However, the Seahawks will be appealing otherwise.

Note: As I was writing this, the spread dropped to +4.5. The sharps took out big bets on the Seahawks, perhaps anticipating more injuries for Detroit.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Ten Lions players missed Wednesday’s practice. It’s no wonder the sharps bet the Seahawks down to +4.

SATURDAY NOTES: The sharps have pounded the Seahawks down to +3.5 because the Lions have so many injuries. They’re down at least five starters, including Amon-Ra St. Brown, the centerpiece of their offense. D.J. Chark and Josh Reynolds may miss this game as well. If they’re out or limited, who will Jared Goff be throwing to? With Geno Smith expected to do well against the blitz, I’m increasing my unit count on Seattle.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have been betting the Seahawks at every number. The Lions are so banged up, so that’s not a surprise. I can’t even find a +3.5 -110 anymore. The best vig for the +3.5 is -115 at Bookmaker, Bovada and FanDuel.

New York Jets (1-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2)
Line: Steelers by 3. Total: 41.
Sunday, Oct. 2, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Steelers had a golden opportunity to make a quarterback change during their mini-bye, but they refused to do so for some reason. Mitchell Trubisky played well in the first half against the Browns, but he cost his team with some dreadful throws during numerous three-and-outs following intermission. He’s obviously not the answer, while Pickett has more upside. This also isn’t the most difficult matchup for Pickett – as opposed to next week versus Buffalo, for example – so this would have been a perfect time to make the switch.

Instead, Trubisky will continue to quarterback the Steelers. He doesn’t have a favorable matchup as some might suspect because the Jets have two terrific cornerbacks in Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed. They’ll be able to limit his receivers. That said, Pat Freiermuth could have a big game, due to the Jets’ issues covering the middle of the field.

The Steelers won’t be able to establish Najee Harris either. Harris had some nice runs versus the Browns, but the Jets have been stout against the rush this year. They just put the clamps on Joe Mixon, so they shouldn’t have any problems with Harris.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: It sounds like one of these teams will be changing their quarterbacks. Zach Wilson has a shot to return this week, and the Jets won’t hesitate to get the dreadful Joe Flacco out of the lineup. Wilson isn’t great either, but he possesses a higher ceiling than Flacco in all regards.

Wilson also has plenty of dynamic threats at his disposal. Garrett Wilson has emerged as the Jets’ premier receiver, and the Steelers don’t have anyone to deal with him, as Amari Cooper discovered Thursday night. Pittsburgh is not generating any pressure on the quarterback with T.J. Watt out of the lineup, so Wilson should thrive.

The Steelers aren’t very good against the run either, so perhaps we’ll see the Jets’ other talented offensive rookie have a nice performance. Breece Hall has been better than Michael Carter, so it’s only a matter of time before the coaching staff unleashes him.

RECAP: I’ve been more than happy to fade the Jets these first three weeks. I’m a big proponent of betting against horrible teams starting terrible backup quarterbacks. The Jets qualified as such. They would have been 0-3 against the spread had Nick Chubb not scored his infamous third touchdown in Week 2.

Some might describe Wilson as “terrible,” and they’re probably not wrong. However, Wilson is better than Flacco because he can currently do things the veteran cannot. He at least gives the Jets a higher offensive upside.

Assuming Wilson is ready, I’ll be on the Jets. Trubisky should not be favored by more than a field goal over anyone unless he has one of the top defenses in the NFL supporting him. That’s obviously not the case with Watt sidelined. I think the most likely result of this game is either team prevailing by a field goal, and we get the win both ways with the Jets. I’ll have interest in betting them lightly as long as Wilson starts.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: George Fant was placed on injured reserve, which would be a huge deal if the Steelers had an edge rush. If T.J. Watt were healthy, I’d be all over the Steelers, but Pittsburgh is having issues getting to the quarterback.

SATURDAY NOTES: It seems like the Steelers were bet up at -3 to -3.5 by the sharps, perhaps because the Jets are missing their top three offensive tackles. I’m going to switch to the Steelers, but I’m not betting this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Different sharps came in on the Jets at +3.5, so the pros are split on this game, as am I. I’m nowhere close to betting this game.

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-0)
Line: Eagles by 6.5. Total: 48.5.
Sunday, Oct. 2, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

Video of the Week: My son was born on New Year’s Eve of 2021, so I’ve been watching some cartoons with him. I recalled a Russian cartoon I used to watch as a toddler called Nu Pogodi. I still think the show is hilarious. It’s about a chain-smoking wolf wearing bell bottoms who wants to eat a rabbit because the rabbit accidentally put out his cigarette with a droplet of water one afternoon. It’s like an uncensored version of Road Runner and Wile E. Coyote.



I love how the rabbit just cut a rope on a whim, without any thought of the repercussions. What a jerk!

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: I listed Jalen Hurts as No. 2 in the MVP race behind Lamar Jackson on my NFL Power Rankings page. And really, he could be No. 1 if the Eagles would let him throw in the second half. Philadelphia has established big leads in all three of its games thus far and has gone into a shell as a result. Hurts has made some amazing strides in play, so allowing him to air it out would prevent teams from establishing potential comebacks.

I see no reason why Hurts would slow down this week. The Jaguars don’t place much pressure on the quarterback, and Hurts is protected extremely well by his elite offensive line. He also has so many dynamic weapons at his disposal. Jacksonville was able to bracket Mike Williams last week, but if it does that to A.J. Brown, that’ll mean DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert will be huge producers.

The Jaguars are at their best on this side of the ball when it comes to stopping the run. This would have been a problem for the Eagles’ run-heavy attack last year, but now it’s just a minor inconvenience. That said, it could prevent the Eagles from putting this game away in the second half, allowing Jacksonville to draw to within single digits.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Trevor Lawrence has improved exponentially from last year. It really has been night and day. He’s no longer making killer mistakes. We saw a bit of this in Week 1, but he has been flawless the past two weeks. Thanks to his brilliant play, the Jaguars are 10th in average yards per drive this season.

However, it must be noted that the Jaguars haven’t faced elite competition yet. They battled the miserable Redskins and Shaq Leonard-less Colts in the first two weeks. They then beat up on the injury-ravaged Chargers. Battling the Eagles and their elite pass rush will be a different animal. Philadelphia produced nine sacks on Carson Wentz this past Sunday, so they’ll be hounding Lawrence all afternoon. Philadelphia’s terrific cornerbacks will thwart Lawrence’s weapons as well.

If there’s a weakness to Philadelphia’s defense, it’s the middle of the field, where tight ends have been productive against them. However, the Jaguars are not particularly strong in this area, as Evan Engram is someone who has often disappointed throughout his career.

RECAP: The Jaguars have been impressive these past two weeks, but before we crown them as a Super Bowl dark horse, let’s consider whom they’ve defeated. They crushed the Colts and Chargers, two teams perceived as being good prior to the season. However, both squads were down numerous starters. The Chargers didn’t have a healthy quarterback at the helm either. And prior to those victories, the Jaguars struggled versus the sorry Redskins, whom the Eagles just destroyed.

I’m rooting for the Jaguars overall because I have numerous futures bets on them, but playing against the Eagles, the best team in the NFC, will be a huge test. I don’t think casual fans realize how good the Eagles are yet, so it seems as though we’re getting decent line value with them. The advance spread was -7, while the computer projection is -8. It’s not like there’s an unbelievable bargain at -8, but it’s good enough for me to side with Philadelphia. If this line falls below -6, I’d have interest in betting the Eagles, but this will be a zero-unit pick for now because I fear a potential back-door cover, thanks to Jacksonville’s great run defense.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I forgot to mention that this is a revenge game for Doug Pederson, who coached against many of the players on the Eagles roster. I still like Philadelphia, but I’m pretty far away from betting this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: These are the two healthiest teams in the NFL. The Jaguars missed one starter through three games (Shaq Griffin), and he’s due back this week. The Eagles missed no starters heading into this contest, but will finally be without one. Avonte Maddox will be sidelined, which is significant because Christian Kirk’s matchup will be easier.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Zay Jones is out, which is a minor injury for the Jaguars. Either way, I’m not betting this game. The sharps haven’t shown any interest.

Washington Redskins (1-2) at Dallas Cowboys (2-1)
Line: Cowboys by 3. Total: 41.5.
Sunday, Oct. 2, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Cowboys.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are complete. They may return in the future, but I had to stop them for now. Besides, I wrote a similar-type book is called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:



Oh, and my other book is still available as well:



In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

DALLAS OFFENSE: I had major concerns about Dallas’ offensive line once Tyron Smith was lost for a major chunk of the season. Things only got worse when Connor McGovern got hurt. With so many offensive line issues, I didn’t think the Cowboys would be able to protect well for Cooper Rush, but things have changed. Jason Peters’ presence on the offensive line is a huge boon for Rush’s protection.

Rush will have plenty of success in this game because of the added protection, as well as the Redskins’ tendency to blitz frequently. Rush has been tremendous against the blitz this year. Check out his numbers when blitzed: 20-of-27, 244 yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions. Amazing!

Meanwhile, Peters will also aid the rushing attack, which is why Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard performed so well Monday night. The Redskins can’t stop the run at all, so both backs figure to thrive.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The Redskins have gotten blown out twice since their fluky victory over the Jaguars to begin the year. Their offensive line has given Carson Wentz no chance, and it’s difficult to imagine things improving this week. Wentz was sacked nine times against the Eagles, and now he’ll be staring down one of the top pass rushes in the NFL.

Wentz will have no time in the pocket, so I don’t expect him to connect with his receivers until garbage time. At the very least, he’ll have some connections to Antonio Gibson and Logan Thomas, as Dallas has a weakness over the middle of the field.

Speaking of Gibson, he won’t have a chance to rush very much if the Cowboys establish a big lead. However, if things go awry for Dallas, Gibson might be able to replicate what Saquon Barkley did Monday night.

RECAP: I can’t believe I’m making this pick, but I’m on the Cowboys. This seems so square after they beat the terrible Giants on national TV, especially with about 70 percent of the bets coming in on them. Despite that win, this line hasn’t moved, though there’s a chance it could trend to -3.5.

However, I believe the Cowboys are the right side. I like betting on good teams playing their backup quarterbacks, and Dallas, now with an improved offensive line, might qualify as such. Rush has proven himself to be very capable, and as mentioned earlier, he matches up very well against a defense that blitzes frequently. Also, I have no idea how the Redskins are going to block Dallas. Washington really misses Pro Bowl center Chase Roullier.

It’s worth noting that we’re getting good line value with the Cowboys. I made this line Dallas -4.5, while the computer model has it projected at -8. Yet, the spread is -3 for some reason. It seems as though there’s some sharp consideration holding this spread back, but it’s not like the sharps are infallible; they were on the Redskins last week as well.

My only concern here, besides the public betting action, is that the Cowboys could be in a bit of a sandwich game; they won on Monday night, and they’ll be playing against the Rams next week. However, they’re small favorites over a divisional rival, so I don’t think they’ll overlook the Redskins. I just thought it was worth mentioning.

Regardless, I’ll be on the Cowboys for a few units. Again, I feel like a major square with this pick, but I think Dallas is heavily underpriced in a terrific matchup.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s even more action on the Cowboys now, which is annoying. We are beginning to see some -3.5 lines pop up, so at least the sharps aren’t on the Redskins.

SATURDAY NOTES: I was confused as to why this line is still -3 in most sportsbooks, and then it hit me. I’ve done a complete 180 on this game. I’m switching to the Redskins and betting three units on them. Every DFS video I’ve listened to this week had people commenting, “I guess the Cowboys are good with Cooper Rush!” Rush has played well, but he has beaten a drained Cincinnati team by three and the terrible Giants. He hasn’t exactly proven himself against good competition, so asking him to win a game by more than three might be too much, especially on a short work week with the Super Bowl champion Rams on the horizon. People will see the Redskins as a complete joke after they were throttled in consecutive weeks, but they’ve endured a very difficult schedule. The Eagles are the best team in the NFC, while the Lions are a top-15 team when mostly healthy. Their easiest game was against the suddenly 2-1 Jaguars, who have obliterated their two opponents since losing to Washington.

But what about the Redskins’ blocking issues? Glad you asked! Most of the Redskins’ problems last week when they allowed nine sacks came via interior pressure as a result of their center being sidelined. They block well on the edges because they have two quality tackles in Sam Cosmi and Charles Leno, so I think Carson Wentz’s pass protection will be better this week. It won’t be perfect, but the Redskin offense will be much better this week, and unlike the Philadelphia battle, Wentz will have receivers open because Dallas’ corners aren’t nearly as good as Philadelphia’s.

I love betting against overreactions, and no one wants to touch the Redskins because of their brutal loss to the No. 2 or 3 team in the NFL, as well as the Cowboys’ win on national TV. Yet, this spread has barely moved. The sharps love the Redskins, and I couldn’t quite figure out why until now. The Redskins are what I call the “Toxic Team” of the week, and betting on such a squad usually ends up being right more often than wrong.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have removed all the +3.5 lines. The best spread I see now is +3 +100 at BetUS. The Cowboys won’t have Jayron Kearse, so the Redskins will have an opportunity to beat Dallas’ secondary.

Cleveland Browns (2-1) at Atlanta Falcons (1-2)
Line: Browns by 1. Total: 47.
Sunday, Oct. 2, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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ATLANTA OFFENSE: Let’s get to the breaking news concerning this game, which is Myles Garrett’s car accident. Garrett was sent to the hospital, but the good news is that none of the injuries he sustained were life-threatening. He was discharged from the hospital Monday night.

While it’s a relief that Garrett will be fine, there are questions about his availability for this game. It’s unclear if he’ll be hindered by anything he suffered in the car accident. The injury report will be key, especially in this matchup. The Falcons don’t have a very good offensive line, but if Garrett is sidelined, the Browns won’t be able to take advantage of that liability.

Garrett isn’t the only injured player on Cleveland’s defense either. The Browns lost two linebackers during the Thursday night affair versus the Steelers. Anthony Walker is done for the year, so if Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah is out as well, that’ll give Kyle Pitts a great matchup. Pitts disappointed in his first two games this year, but finally rebounded last week. There’s a chance this could be his best game yet.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: If Garrett and Owusu-Koramoah are sidelined, Jacoby Brissett will need to carry this team. That may sound like a joke, but would it surprise you if I told you that the Browns average fourth in yards per drive this year? Granted, they’ve played some shoddy defenses, but it’s not like the Falcons are the ’85 Bears.

The Falcons are quite the opposite of the ’85 Bears. They produce no pressure on opposing quarterbacks, so they have to blitz more often than they should to get home. This will be music to Jacoby Brissett’s ears. Check out his numbers versus the blitz this year: 21-of-28, 229 yards, one touchdown, no interceptions. Remember when everyone thought the Browns couldn’t win with him?

Of course, the Browns will feed the ball to Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt frequently. The Falcons are a bit better against the run than the pass, but only really by default. They just had issues with Rashaad Penny, so both Chubb and Hunt figure to thrive.

RECAP: This is a difficult pick to make at the moment because there’s uncertainty regarding Garrett’s health and status for this game. I haven’t heard anything regarding his availability for this contest, so his absence would be enormous for Atlanta’s chances of pulling the upset. Also, there’s a chance the Cleveland players could be distracted.

I’m going to pencil in the Browns for now because of the value we’re getting with them – the advance spread was Cleveland -3, and my projected line is -3.5 – but check back later in the week or follow @walterfootball for updates. I may bet heavily on the Browns if Garrett can play.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Myles Garrett wasn’t present at Wednesday’s practice. His status is up in the air, and I’ll be far less enthusiastic about the Browns if he’s sidelined.

SATURDAY NOTES: We’re still waiting on news for Myles Garrett and also Jadeveon Clowney, both of whom failed to practice all week. The only piece of good news so far for the Browns is that Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah will play. We’ll have to wait until Sunday for this official unit count.

SATURDAY NOTES II: Myles Garrett is out, so I don’t like the Browns nearly as much as I did earlier in the week.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Both Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney are out, which is problematic for the Browns. However, I still like how their offense matches up with Atlanta’s defense. The sharps haven’t really touched this game.