NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 4, 2022

Arizona Cardinals (1-2) at Carolina Panthers (1-2)
Line: Pick. Total: 44.5.
Sunday, Oct. 2, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Cardinals.

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CAROLINA OFFENSE: To say that the Panthers’ offense has struggled is an understatement. They have yet to generate more than 300 net yards of offense in any game this year. They average the fifth-fewest yards per drive, and they allow the fifth-highest sack rate. Their offensive line is horrendous, and the coaching staff doesn’t seem to understand that Christian McCaffrey is capable of catching passes.

The Cardinals are fully capable of taking advantage of this. That may sound surprising to those who only remember them from the Week 1 blowout loss to the Chiefs, but they were missing half their roster in that affair. In the two games since, they’ve limited the Raiders and Rams to 43 total points. With J.J. Watt returning in Week 2, they’ve established the No. 3 pressure rate in the NFL, so they’ll be able to smother Baker Mayfield. Arizona blitzes frequently, which doesn’t bode well for Mayfield. Against the blitz this year, Mayfield is just 16-of-35, 208 yards, one touchdown and an interception.

It would help Mayfield immensely if the coaching staff set up some screens to ease the blitz pressure off him. If only they had a talented, pass-catching back capable of taking advantage of such situations…

ARIZONA OFFENSE: If the Panthers had a functional offense, they would be 3-0 right now because the defense has been tremendous. That said, it’s not like they’ve been challenged yet. The three quarterbacks they’ve battled thus far are Jacoby Brissett, Daniel Jones, and a hobbled Jameis Winston.

Kyler Murray is definitely a step up in competition, though he doesn’t have his full complement of weapons. That’ll change in a few weeks when DeAndre Hopkins returns, but Murray has been relying on Marquise Brown, Greg Dortch and Zach Ertz. Carolina has some incredible talent in the secondary to limit those players.

What the Panthers may not be able to account for is Murray’s scrambling ability. Jones had some key rushes versus the Panthers in Week 2, so Murray could be difficult to stop. Also, the Panthers aren’t as good against the run compared to the pass, so James Conner could also have some significant runs.

RECAP: What’s up with this line movement? The advance spread was Arizona -2.5. Now, the Panthers are favored by two. I know we’re not moving across key numbers, but why did the spread shift 4.5 points? People weren’t that impressed with Carolina’s victory over New Orleans, were they?

The Panthers’ win versus the Saints was a complete farce, as they were vastly outgained, but prevailed because of numerous New Orleans mistakes. Had the Saints triumphed, this line could be completely different. Sure, the Cardinals aren’t a good team either, but they have a major advantage in the trenches in this game. They’re going to make Mayfield’s life miserable.

My only concern regarding this pick is that it seems like a trap; the Cardinals are a publicly backed underdog on a suspicious line. I’m a bit cautious, but I like Arizona for a moderately sized play at the moment. I think their edges in the trenches will be the deciding factor in this game.

TEASER: I’m betting this teaser before the lines move. I’m taking Cardinals +8 and Broncos +8.5. I don’t see Baker Mayfield beating anyone by nine or more, while Russell Wilson always keeps games close.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s so much money on the Cardinals, but at least the spread is moving in their direction. I’m still confused as to why Carolina is favored.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m glad this game is a pick ’em now because it seemed very shady that the Panthers were favored. That said, I don’t like that Marquise Brown and Zaven Collins were limited on Friday.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: It sounds like both Marquise Brown and Christian McCaffrey will play. Both the public and sharps are on Arizona.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Both McCaffrey and Brown will play. There was some pushback from other sharps on the Panthers at +1. I still like the Cardinals a good deal. I’m not seeing anything better than +1 -110 across the board.

Denver Broncos (2-1) at Las Vegas Raiders (0-3)
Line: Raiders by 3. Total: 45.5.
Sunday, Oct. 2, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Broncos.

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DENVER OFFENSE: It was so incredibly frustrating to watch the Broncos try to score Sunday night. We needed the win to go 5-0 in the Supercontest/Circa Million, yet it seemed like Denver would never quite get it together. Thankfully, there was finally some Russell Wilson magic at the very end.

While it seems like the Broncos will never be able to score consistently – they have yet to top 16 points in any game this year – they’ll have a great chance to do so against the Raiders, who have many defensive holes. Their secondary was just exposed by Ryan Tannehill, which definitely bodes well for Wilson because he’s the superior quarterback with much better receiving talent around him. He’ll have to deal with the Raiders’ pass rush, but that’s all Las Vegas has going for it on this side of the ball.

The Raiders also struggle to stop running backs, both as rushers and receivers out of the backfield. Both Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon are equipped to take advantage of this liability, so I suspect one of them will have a big performance.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: The Raiders also have some major problems on this side of the ball that the Broncos can expose. Namely, their offensive line is horrendous. Derek Carr has great talent around him, but he doesn’t have enough protection to take advantage of them.

The Broncos, as demonstrated Sunday night, have a terrific pass rush. They have a top-10 pressure rate, so they’ll be able to disrupt the Raiders’ offense. Davante Adams and Darren Waller will still make some plays, but it won’t be a consistent attack.

The Raiders won’t be able to lean on Josh Jacobs either. Denver showed some weakness to the run to begin the year, but that changed Sunday when linebacker Josey Jewell returned to the lineup. Jacobs won’t threaten Denver with Jewell on the field.

RECAP: When I first saw this spread, I thought it might be a trap. I was shocked that the Raiders were favored by two. That’s what the advance spread was, but people just saw them lose to the Titans. How could this not move the other way? My projected line was Denver -3, so I thought we’d see something closer to that.

As it turns out, the public is actually backing the Raiders at -2, which seems insane to me. The Raiders are a miserable team with huge offensive line issues and many holes in the defense. I know the Broncos have their problems, but they have much higher upside than Las Vegas. Their defense is also vastly superior. Yet, no one likes them in their matchup because they struggled to defeat the 49ers on Sunday Night Football. I know their offense was painful to watch, but the 49ers are a top-10 team with an elite defense. There’s no shame in engaging in a defensive brawl with them on national TV.

I’ll be more than happy to take this amazing value with the Broncos. We’re getting the team with the superior quarterback, offensive line, and defense as underdogs, which is extremely rare.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The spread in the Supercontest is Denver +3, so perhaps we’ll get that number in the coming days. The Westgate currently has Denver +3 -120 listed. I may lock in a reasonable +3 spread soon.

SATURDAY NOTES: It’s a bummer that the Raiders are getting some reinforcements back into the lineup, as Andre James, Denzel Perryman and Trevon Moehrig are all set to return. Hunter Renfrow is out again, but that’s it. I like the Broncos much less than I did earlier in the week. In fact, I’m not betting this game because the suddenly healthier Raiders will be completely desperate to avoid an 0-4 start.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I wouldn’t be surprised if this line rises to -3, as there is sharp money on the Raiders. I was close to changing my pick.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Raiders won’t have Rock Ya-Sin, but they’re healthier than they were the past two weeks. This line has remained -2.5 with sharp action on the Raiders, but if you want +3, you can pay -122 at Bookmaker, which is worth it.

New England Patriots (1-2) at Green Bay Packers (2-1)
Line: Packers by 9.5. Total: 40.
Sunday, Oct. 2, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Packers.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called Walt Goes to Vegas 2022, Part 6.: People Who Wear Masks in Las Vegas. Come laugh with me at losers who still wear masks!

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The big news concerning this game is that Mac Jones suffered a high ankle sprain at the very end of the Baltimore affair. He’ll be sidelined for several weeks, which will force Brian Hoyer into the lineup.

This is obviously not ideal. It’s not like Jones was setting the world on fire, but he made some nice throws and moved around very well in a tight game against Baltimore. I don’t see Hoyer doing that at this stage of his career, or really any stage of his career. It’d be one thing if the Patriots still had an elite offensive line from a year ago, but that’s no longer the case.

If you’re wondering how in the world the Patriots will move the chains in this contest, consider that Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris have nice matchups against Green Bay’s run defense. We’re just two weeks removed from David Montgomery having a huge performance against the Packers, so Stevenson and Harris could combine for a similar output.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: The Packers have done well to rebound from their hideous opening-week defeat in Minnesota, which shouldn’t have been unexpected. The Packers were missing countless offensive linemen and receivers in that affair, so Aaron Rodgers had no chance.

Rodgers has prevailed in the two weeks since, but it’s not like he has posted monstrous stats in blowouts, or anything. While his offensive line is fully healthy, Rodgers is still limited by his lackluster receiving corps. Romeo Doubs had a breakout performance last week, but Bill Belichick will recognize this and limit Rodgers’ only real downfield threat.

That said, I don’t want it to sound like Rodgers will be shut out, or anything. Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon will continue to serve as quality weapons out of the backfield. The Patriots are strong against the run – as long as they don’t have to stop Lamar Jackson – but Jones and Dillon will be productive as receivers in the intermediate game.

RECAP: I love betting good teams playing their backup quarterbacks because sportsbooks overcompensate too much for one player. The Patriots are now double-digit underdogs, so the question is: Is New England a good team? Considering that the Patriots dominated the Steelers in yardage and had a legitimate chance to prevail against the Ravens before Nelson Agholor’s fumble, I’d say yes. Belichick is still the best coach in the NFL, and he has a defense that put the clamps on the Dolphins in Week 1. The Patriots can also run well and keep the ball away from Rodgers.

The Patriots will be playing their hardest because the backup quarterback will be on the field, while the same may not be the case for Green Bay. The Packers are coming off a tough battle against the Tom Brady-led Buccaneers in a heated revenge game. Following this affair, they’ll be flying out to London. I don’t think the Patriots are going to be on their radar at all, so I’d expect a classic Packers clunker that occurs two or three times per year.

I won’t go super heavy on this because there’s a chance Hoyer could just be dreadful and give the Patriots no chance to be competitive, but I think there’s a greater possibility that New England will be able to keep this game within single digits. Also, keep in mind that this is the same spread we saw in the Bears at Packers Week 2 affair. I know Hoyer sucks more than Justin Fields, but the rest of New England’s roster is much better than Chicago’s, and yet the Bears almost covered that spread at the end via a Fields sneak.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The spread has shiften below +10 because the sharps are betting on the Patriots. I’m not surprised by this because the line was way too high, and the Packers are in a terrible motivational spot.

SATURDAY NOTES: Sharp money on the Patriots has moved this line across 10. That’s not a surprise, especially given that Jaire Alexander may not play.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: As mentioned on Saturday, the sharps have moved this line below 10. I’m curious to see if Alexander will play.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps bet this at +10.5 and +10, but not +9.5. I still like the Patriots at this number, especially with Jaire Alexander out. The best line is +9.5 -108 at FanDuel. You can find +10 -120 at BetUS, but I’m not paying -120 vig for 10.

Kansas City Chiefs (2-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1)
Line: Buccaneers by 2. Total: 47.
Sunday, Oct. 2, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: It’s ridiculous how many mistakes the Chiefs made last week to allow the Colts to win. From Travis Kelce’s drop touchdown, to the failed fake field goal, to Skyy Moore’s muffed punt, Kansas City made so many errors that allowed Indianapolis to hang around and eventually steal a victory.

I would not expect the Chiefs to be so mistake-prone for the second week in a row. If so, Mahomes figures to have success battling a Tampa defense that has been performing on an elite level this year. The Buccaneers are getting tons of pressure on the quarterback, but they’re doing so via the blitz. Only seven teams have blitzed more frequently than the Buccaneers this year, which doesn’t bode well in a matchup against Mahomes, who eats up the blitz.

Then again, Mahomes hasn’t been quite up to his terrific level after the Week 1 onslaught against a skeleton-crew Arizona defense. Mahomes will be fine without Tyreek Hill, but there’s no doubt that the Chiefs are missing an explosive element of their offense. The Buccaneers’ cornerbacks figure to do well against Mahomes’ other receivers.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Tom Brady probably wishes he had Patrick Mahomes’ supporting cast. Aside from Mike Evans, Brady can’t count on anyone, as both Chris Godwin and Julio Jones continue to be injured. There’s Russell Gage, but he’s just a mediocre intermediate option.

This is why Evans’ return is so huge. Evans doesn’t have the easiest matchup against an underrated Chiefs secondary, but he should do somewhat well in this game. It’s also worth noting that Brady has been terrific historically against the blitz, and like the Buccaneers, the Chiefs send extra pass rushers frequently.

While Brady could certainly come alive versus the constant blitz, especially now that Evans has returned, it’s unlikely that Leonard Fournette will do much on the ground. Kansas City’s rush defense just put the clamps on Jonathan Taylor.

RECAP: There’s a chance this game won’t be played because of an impending hurricane. In fact, the Buccaneers have evacuated the Tampa Bay area because of it. At the very least, there’s a possibility that this matchup will be played elsewhere, which is what happened to the Packers-Saints Week 1 affair in 2021.

With the Buccaneers preoccupied with leaving Tampa, I have to wonder how they’ll be able to focus on this game. The players are likely more worried about their families and homes, so are they really focusing on battling the Chiefs? It’s not like the Buccaneers need to win this game anyway, as they’re alone in first place in their terrible division.

The Chiefs, meanwhile, will be focused. They’re coming off a loss, which likely occurred because they were looking to achieving revenge for their Super Bowl loss. We’ll see what happens with the potential postponement or relocation, but I imagine I’ll have some sort of bet on the Chiefs.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There still haven’t been any updates regarding where or when this game will be played, but there is sharp money coming in on the Buccaneers.

SATURDAY NOTES: Hurricane Ian was bad, but not nearly as terrible as the media made it out to be, so I don’t think the Buccaneer players will be very distracted. However, there are a number of injured Tampa wideouts. Mike Evans will be back, but everyone else seems to be hurt. I’ll be on the lower end of the projected 0-4 unit count.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The Buccaneers are now favored! The sharps love Tampa for some reason.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have been pounding the Buccaneers like crazy, and now it’s evident why. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Julio Jones, Russell Gage, and Donovan Smith are all returning. There also won’t be too much of a hurricane distraction. I’m tempted to switch to Tampa, but it’s too late. If you still like the Chiefs, Bovada has the best line (+2 -105).

Los Angeles Rams (2-1) at San Francisco 49ers (1-2)
Line: 49ers by 2. Total: 42.
Monday, Oct. 3, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: 49ers.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the most LGBST city in the United States, home of the San Francisco 49ers. Guys, Mother would never allow me to come to San Francisco because she said the city would make me fall in love with men, and I would always tell her that I’m already in love with Nick Foles. But now that I’ve been disowned, I can come here without a permission slip!

Emmitt: Nate Reilly, there nothing wrong with loving a football player, and it do not make you a homonym. I love some of my teammate when I play with the Cowboy. Guy like Michael Irving, Tony Aikman, Deion Slanders, and Wayne Newton all guy I love but do not want to have sexuals with thems, which make me unhomonym.

Reilly: First of all, Emmitt, my name is not Nate Reilly. That’s Nate Seinfeld, who was the quarterback of the Eagles. Second, if you love any Cowboys, that definitely makes you a homonym because the Cowboys are stupid and disgusting like Charles Davis’ face.

Tollefson: Kevin, you’re totally right on the money. Guys can’t love any other guys. Guys can love girls. I love girls. I love kidnapping them, chaining them in my cellar, and making them cook and clean for me naked. I couldn’t do that with any men!

Reilly: Tolly, now that Mother has disowned me, maybe I’ll take you up on your offer to kidnap women with you. But first I have to learn how to say hi to them. When I try, I get a lump in my throat and I begin peeing a little bit.

Adam Schefter: Kevin, I have breaking news for you, straight from Daniel Snyder’s approval desk. I can confirm, Kevin, that Kevin likes men because he’s in San Francisco and doesn’t talk to women. But it’s almost that time of year when we begin pretending to care about men who like men, Kevin, so maybe we’ll come up with an award and give it to you.

Goodell: This is completely true, fellow hu-man NFL reporter, we at the NFL care about men who like men in a span of 31 consecutive days. Roger Goodell Bot, beep, excuse me, this humanoid likes the number 31 because it is a prime number.

Reilly: No, not prime numbers again! Oh wait, Mother is not going to make me take a math pop quiz because she has disowned me! Ha! Being disowned is great. But I still need advice with talking to women before Adam Schefter comes out with more reports of me liking men. Mr. President, you are very popular after getting all of those votes, which were totally legit, what advice would you give me to talk to women?

Joe Biden: I’ll tell you what, Jack! You like a woman, you go shower with her, especially if she’s your young daughter. If she goes to protest, just tell her that you’ll kick her out on the street and get another daughter from the local kindergarten. I’ve been through five sons this way, I mean daughters, and they all touched my hairy legs after I gave them ice cream. I like choco choco chip. The ice cream stole the jukebox from the garbage can. Ice cream is good, Jack. I like choco choco chip. And then my nemesis Frosted Flake comes to me and says, look here, Jack, you better stop forcing the kids to touch your hairy legs, and I says, Ester, you better be careful or I’ll put y’all in chains. He says look here, fat, I like choco choco chip.

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, wrong, wrong, Sleepy Joe just said he likes choco choco chip ice cream, this is wrong, totally wrong, no one knows more about ice cream than me, believe it, I am the greatest ice cream expert anyone has ever seen, I’ve correctly tasted 100 percent of ice cream correctly, which no one has ever done, ever, in the history of this great and beautiful country, even though fat pig Rosie O’Donnell is here, what a total disgrace, a total fat pig, no one wants to grab her by the special woman place, believe me, no one would ever want to do that, except for Obama, maybe Obama, who is totally not from this country, but no one has better ice cream tasting than me, no one except for the guy who invented ice cream, but I’m probably a better ice cream taster than that guy, what do you think, am I a better taster of ice cream than that guy, I’d say so, but what do I know, I’m only telling you what I’ve been told which is that I’m the best at it.

Wolfley: DONALD, DID YOU KNOW THAT IF YOU TAKE VANILLA ICE CREAM, MIX IT WITH CHOCOLATE ICE CREAM, AND ADD A TELEPHONE WIRE WITH LIPS AND A SERPENT TONGUE, YOU GET AN ALTERNATE UNIVERSE WHERE PIGS WEAR CLOWN SUITS?

Reilly: All this talk about ice cream is making me hungry. New Daddy, can we go get ice cream?

Jay Cutler: Meh, if I felt like moving, maybe, but I’m not going to move for the next four days.

Reilly: Ugh, New Daddy, if you don’t take me for ice cream, I’m going to have to ask one of the strange men in leather pants outside to take me for ice cream.

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like Adam Schefter’s report about you is correct, Kevin, so maybe you’ll be the one wearing leather pants, Kevin. Let’s talk about some of your other outfits, Kevin. I’m sure you’ll wear a Sebastian Top, Kevin. How about some fishnet stockings, Kevin? I bet you won’t resist a motorcycle rider outfit, Kevin. What do you think of Assless Chaps, Kevin? You can go with a fishnet tee, Kevin. I bet you’ll like the lace-up back tee, Kevin. I bet you have all of these clothes, Kevin.

Reilly: WRONG, CHARLES DAVIS, WRONG! MOTHER BOUGHT ALL MY CLOTHES, AND SHE WOULD NEVER LET ME WEAR ANY OF THOSE, YOU A**HOLE! We’ll be back after this!

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: The Rams have played two games against teams ranked in the top 10 of pressure this year, and one team in the bottom of that category. The latter contest was a blowout victory against the Falcons – the Rams were up 28-3 before taking their foot off the gas – while the former two games were the horrible defeat to Buffalo and the defensive grinder in Arizona.

This is worth noting because the 49ers have a ferocious pass rush, which Russell Wilson learned Sunday night. Matthew Stafford will be facing plenty of heat, especially now that he’s without Andrew Whitworth. We saw what Von Miller did to the Whitworth-less Rams offensive line, and Nick Bosa could treat the unit similarly.

I would still expect the Rams to have some success offensively, as it’s extremely difficult to deal with Cooper Kupp, but the offensive drives will be inconsistent. Perhaps I’ll be wrong if Allen Robinson stops disappointing, but he has struggled in two of the three games thus far.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The 49ers have a big advantage on this side of the ball as well. The Rams have some serious injury concerns in their secondary, as they were missing their Nos. 2, 3, and 4 cornerbacks against the Cardinals. One of their starting safeties was out as well. The Cardinals had a great chance to expose this major liability, but Kyler Murray’s receivers dropped five passes in the first half alone.

Kyle Shanahan will undoubtedly recognize these injuries and will put his talented weapons in a great position to take advantage. Jimmy Garoppolo isn’t a great quarterback, by any means, but he has shown that he can operate Shanahan’s offense well when battling a team with obvious weaknesses.

One area of concern for the 49ers is that Trent Williams will be sidelined for 4-6 weeks. This will be a big problem in some matchups, but the Rams don’t have the great edge rush to capitalize on this injury.

RECAP: The 49ers have dominated the Rams in recent years, and I don’t expect that to change. The Rams have some big problems at left tackle and the secondary, which San Francisco will be able to expose. Everyone is used to the Rams being one of the best teams in the NFC, but they’ve been shaky this year. They were destroyed by the Bills and had trouble putting away the Cardinals, despite all of Arizona’s mistakes. The 49ers are closer to the Bills’ level than that of the Cardinals and Falcons.

I’ll probably be betting a couple of units on the 49ers at the very least. My unit count will be determined by how injured the Los Angeles secondary will be by the end of the week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The public appears to love the Rams, which isn’t a surprise because everyone watched the 49ers lose what they deemed to be a dreadful game on Sunday night.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Rams are pretty banged up. They’ll be missing two offensive linemen (Brian Allen, David Edwards), as well as three cornerbacks. The 49ers should be able to take advantage of these absences, so I’m going to mark this down as a three-unit wager.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Nothing new since last night. I still really like the 49ers.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Arik Armstead is active, which is a nice boost for the 49ers. I like San Francisco with the Rams missing multiple starters at two positions. The 49ers should continue to dominate the Rams, all while avenging the loss in the NFC Championship. I’m bumping this up to four units, with the best line (-1.5) being at FanDuel. The sharps are on San Francisco.