NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 3, 2022

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1) at Los Angeles Chargers (1-1)
Line: Chargers by 3.5. Total: 42.5.
Sunday, Sept. 25, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Jaguars.

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SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: Justin Herbert’s status is imperative when handicapping this game. Herbert took a crushing shot to the ribs in Thursday night’s game against the Chiefs. This hindered him the rest of the way, save for a pair of throws that miraculously covered the spread.

It’s fair to be skeptical of the Chargers’ medical staff’s ability to heal Herbert, especially after what transpired with Tyrod Taylor. Brandon Staley called Herbert “day to day,” so it sounds like he’ll take the field versus the Jaguars. The question is whether Herbert will be 100 percent, which is something we may not know until this game begins.

The Jaguars apply a fair amount of pressure on the quarterback, so the Charger offensive line will need to come up big to protect their quarterback. Fortunately for Herbert, he’s protected well, so he’ll be able to find his weapons. Mike Williams, Keenan Allen and Gerald Everett figure to get open against a Jaguar back seven that has plenty of holes.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Trevor Lawrence put together a terrific performance against the Colts in Week 2. He made only one mistake, as he torched Indianapolis en route to a 24-0 blowout victory. He showed major strides compared to last week, when he missed two easy touchdowns.

Lawrence will have his work cut out for him in this game, however. Lawrence hasn’t battled a defense with a tremendous pass rush yet this year. The Redskins are just mediocre when it comes to getting to the quarterback because of Chase Young’s absence, while the Colts have one of the NFL’s worst pressure rates. The Chargers, conversely, have Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack to rattle Lawrence, so Jacksonville’s offensive line will truly be tested.

Lawrence will still have some success targeting Christian Kirk, but he’ll need James Robinson to ease pressure off of him. Robinson has looked much better than expected coming off an Achilles tear, and he could get going against a Charger defense that isn’t very good versus the run.

RECAP: Thanks to Jacksonville’s 24-0 victory over the Colts, the advance spread moved from -9 to -7. This is nice value on the Chargers because seven is the No. 2 key number.

That said, I also have to wonder if this spread movement is a byproduct of Herbert’s injury status. We don’t know if he’s 100 percent, so betting the Chargers is a scary proposition because their quarterback may not be completely healthy. If I knew that Herbert would be completely fine for this game, I’d have interest in betting the Chargers at -7. However, we’ll have to wait and see if we get any updates about Herbert’s status. I don’t suspect that we will, but you never know.

I’m going to pencil in the Chargers for no units at the moment, but check back later or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m waiting on any Justin Herbert news, though I’m not sure we’ll get anything concrete.

SATURDAY NOTES: Here’s the big news. Justin Herbert was downgraded Friday to missing practice. The sportsbooks moved the line from -7 to -3, dropping the total five points in the process. It would be shocking if Herbert played at this point. Furthermore, Corey Linsley and J.C. Jackson will miss this game, and Keenan Allen likely will as well. The Jaguars look appealing at the moment, but if they end up being favored, I’ll have some interest in betting the Chargers.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: We’re still waiting on Justin Herbert news. Herbert will try to play, but the coaching staff is asking him to sit. Check back around 3:15-3:30 Eastern for my final thoughts.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I can’t believe Justin Herbert is playing. I wanted to bet the Chargers as a potential underdog with Chase Daniel starting, but there’s no telling how healthy Herbert will be. Also, the Chargers won’t have Keenan Allen, Corey Linsely or J.C. Jackson. With that in mind, I have interest in a small bet on Jacksonville. I like fading injured quarterbacks, and the Chargers are not nearly at full strength otherwise. The best line is +6.5 -105 at Bovada. The sharps are split on this game.

Green Bay Packers (1-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-0)
Line: Buccaneers by 1. Total: 42.
Sunday, Sept. 25, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: TBA.

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TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The big news concerning this game is that Mike Evans has been suspended for shoving Marshon Lattimore in Sunday’s on-field brawl. Evans has appealed his suspension, but it’s unlikely that it’ll be overturned.

If Evans is out, one has to wonder whom Tom Brady will have at his disposal. Chris Godwin is unlikely to play, and Julio Jones missed Week 2. Jones could return, but he’s an underwhelming No. 1 option at this stage of his career, especially against Jaire Alexander. The Packers have the cornerback talent elsewhere to limit Brady’s receivers, and they also have the pass rush to overwhelm Brady’s injury-ravaged offensive line.

The Buccaneers’ best chance of moving the chains will be via Leonard Fournette. The Packers continue to struggle to defend the run, so Fournette has a nice matchup, provided he doesn’t have too many backup linemen in front of him.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: The Packers got back to basics in the wake of their embarrassing loss to the Vikings. They rammed the ball down Chicago’s throat with Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. This was an effective strategy as a result of Elgton Jenkins and Jon Runyan Jr. returning to the lineup. David Bakhtiari didn’t make it back, but it seemed like he was close to playing in Wee 2. Perhaps he’ll be available this Sunday.

The Packers will need all hands on deck to run against the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay is always stout against the run, so all the offensive linemen will be required to give Jones and Dillon some room. They’ll have some success as receivers out of the backfield, but there’s no guarantee they’ll establish anything on the ground.

Bakhtiari’s presence will also help Aaron Rodgers have more time in the pocket, which is more essential than ever, given his lackluster receiving corps. It might be just a matter of time before either Christian Watson or Romeo Doubs emerges as a dynamic threat, but until then, the Packer passing attack will be inconsistent.

RECAP: This is another case where we lost some line value from the advance spread off the ultimate key number of three. The Buccaneers were -3 prior to the Week 2 games, and they’re -2 now.

However, there’s reason for this, and that would be Evans’ suspension. If Godwin and Julio Jones are also sidelined, Brady’s weapons will be extremely limited. Making matters worse, the offensive line is projected to miss numerous starters. All of this wasn’t an issue against the Saints as far as the result was concerned, but that’s only because the Saints couldn’t score as a result of Jameis Winston’s back injury.

Rodgers won’t have as much of an issue. Granted, Rodgers isn’t at his best right now because of a limited receiving corps, but it’ll be a huge upset if he can’t get his team to the 20-point range.

I like the Packers to pull the minor upset. This isn’t one of my favorite picks because we’re no longer getting any key numbers, but I’m willing to bet a couple of units on this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This line keeps getting dragged down as the result of sharp movement. I may add a third unit based on the injury report.

SATURDAY NOTES: Who is Tom Brady going to throw to? Mike Evans is suspended. Chris Godwin is out. Julio Jones was D-D-L in practice this week. Russell Gage was downgraded on Friday. Even Breshad Perriman is banged up! Meanwhile, Donovan Smith is out again. The Buccaneers also won’t have Akiem Hicks on the other side of the ball. Conversely, the Packers could get David Bakhtiari back. I’m moving this to three units, and I may add a fourth if Bakhtiari plays.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I was hoping for all the Buccaneer receivers to be out, but it sounds like Russell Gage will play. I’ll have a bit less interest in the Packers if that’s the case.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Russell Gage will play, which is a bit disappointing. However, David Bakhtiari will be making his return for the Packers. I like Green Bay for two units, with the best line being +1 -105 at Bookmaker and Bovada. The sharps are on the Packers.

Atlanta Falcons (0-2) at Seattle Seahawks (1-1)
Line: Seahawks by 1. Total: 43.5.
Sunday, Sept. 25, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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ATLANTA OFFENSE: The Falcons received a ton of praise for nearly defeating the Rams, but most of their offensive production came when they were trailing 28-3. Marcus Mariota had no chance in the pocket before the Rams took their foot off the gas. The Seahawks have done a good job of pressuring the quarterback thus far, so Mariota could have similar issues.

Mariota may not have tons of time to throw, but he will be able to utilize Kyle Pitts, who finally gets an easy matchup after two difficult ones. The Seahawks have some sketchy linebacker and safety play with Jamal Adams gone, so Pitts will thrive. Drake London also figures to have a better game now that he won’t see Jalen Ramsey.

I wouldn’t count on the Falcons establishing the run, however. The Seahawks are much better versus the rush than the pass, and it’s not like Atlanta has a bellcow threat out of the backfield.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Seahawks, of course, will attempt to run the ball because that’s all Pete Carroll wants to do. Carroll has a pair of talented backs, but neither may have much success in this matchup, given that the Falcons are two weeks removed from limiting Alvin Kamara.

Geno Smith will once again have to move the chains with his arm, which proved to be very difficult last week. Smith led the offense to zero points, as the seven Seattle scored came via a blocked field goal. Smith could have issues connecting with his primary receivers, given that the Falcons have a pair of talented cornerbacks on their roster.

Smith, however, won’t deal with much pressure, as the Falcons don’t have the personnel to get to the quarterback. Atlanta has the fourth-worst pressure rate in the NFL, so Smith will have time to locate his other targets, namely his tight ends; the Falcons’ linebacking corps can easily be abused.

RECAP: I sound like a broken record at this point, but this is yet another case where we’re getting a key number as a result of the advance line moving. The Seahawks were -3 prior to Week 2, but they’re -2 now. This is likely the result of the Falcons keeping their game “close” against the Rams, while Seattle was blown out in San Francisco. However, anyone who paid attention to last week’s games can tell you that this is nonsense. The Falcons were trailing 28-3 in Los Angeles prior to some garbage-time touchdowns, one of which came via a blocked punt.

The most likely result of this game is the Seahawks winning by three, which is now a win because of the line movement. I’ll be on Seattle for this reason, but I’m not crazy about it. Both of these teams are dreadful, so I have no desire to bet this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: A ton of sharp money came in on the Falcons. I’m not sure why, but this line is now a pick ’em. I’m considering a pick change.

SATURDAY NOTES: Shelby Harris is another injury for the Seahawks, but he wasn’t playing very well this year. I don’t have a different opinion about this game right now, though the sharps love Atlanta. I know the sharps are impressed with how the Falcon coaching staff has handled Marcus Mariota, but I think the Falcons have had some misleading results, and I don’t think they can handle Seattle’s pass rush.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I still have no interest here, but it’s worth noting that the sharps jumped in on the Seahawks at PK.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Sidney Jones is a surprise inactive for the Seahawks, who are down so many defensive backs. If the Falcons had a good quarterback, I’d fade Seattle. As it stands, I’m just picking the Seahawks, but I have no interest in betting this game. The sharps are split.

Los Angeles Rams (1-1) at Arizona Cardinals (1-1)
Line: Rams by 3.5. Total: 48.5.
Sunday, Sept. 25, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Rams.

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ARIZONA OFFENSE: What an amazing comeback by Kyler Murray! I had the Cardinals for a huge bet last week, and I counted them out when they were trailing 23-7 in the fourth quarter. Murray needed some luck, but he defeated the Raiders after looking so dreadful in the first half.

Murray will have his work cut out for him in this game, as the Rams have owned him throughout his young career. He’s 1-6 against them, including his playoff loss last year in which he scored just 11 points. Murray has never possessed an elite offensive line in front of him, so Aaron Donald and company have done a great job of harassing him. The Cardinals have done nothing to improve their blocking, so Murray will be running for his life once again.

Of course, this occurred last week as well. The difference is that, unlike the Raiders, the Rams have the personnel in the secondary and linebacking corps to cover his diminished receiving corps. Murray’s best matchup last week was Zach Ertz against the Raider linebacking corps. Ertz had a big game, but things won’t go as well for him this time, given that the Rams have shut down Kyle Pitts and Dawson Knox in consecutive weeks.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: The Cardinals didn’t just have trouble scoring through three quarters last week. They also had no answer for what the Raiders were doing offensively. The Raiders seemingly scored at will through three quarters even though Arizona did a good job of limiting Davante Adams. Darren Waller and Mack Hollins had big performances instead.

The Cardinals haven’t been able to deal with Cooper Kupp very well, but even if they restrict him, they’ll still have to contend with Allen Robinson and Tyler Higbee. Arizona has limited talent in its secondary, so both players should perform on a high level.

There are some obvious differences between the Rams and Raiders offense, with one being the offensive line. Matthew Stafford is protected well, unlike Derek Carr, so the J.J. Watt-led pass rush won’t be able to rattle him very frequently.

RECAP: Murray has covered the spread only once against the Rams in his career. That occurred early last year when the Rams were coming off a huge victory over the Buccaneers and weren’t very focused. Los Angeles went on to crush Arizona in its next two meetings by a combined score of 64-34.

I don’t see why anything would change this time. The Rams don’t have Andrew Whitworth or Von Miller anymore, but the Cardinals won’t have a number of talented players from last year, including Chandler Jones and DeAndre Hopkins. I wish we were getting a better number – my personal line is Rams -4 – but I’m still willing to place a small bet on the road favorite.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I don’t know why the sharps bet the Cardinals at +4, but they didn’t touch +3.5 yet. I’m still on the Rams.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m not going to bet the Rams. They’re going to be missing their Nos. 2, 3, and 4 cornerbacks, as well as one of their safeties. I wouldn’t jump ship to Arizona though.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’ve flip-flopped on this game on many occasions, so I guess I shouldn’t bet this one, right?

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Rams will officially be down their second, third, and fourth corners, as well as a starting safety. This bodes very well for the Cardinals, which is probably why the sharps are betting them. I almost made the switch to Arizona, but I’ll stick with the Rams. If you want to be the Rams at -3 -125 at Bookmaker, which I would do rather than bet the -3.5.

San Francisco 49ers (1-1) at Denver Broncos (1-1)
Line: 49ers by 1.5. Total: 44.5.
Sunday, Sept. 25, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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DENVER OFFENSE: The Broncos’ offense has underperformed more than any other unit in the NFL this year. They scored just 16 points against the Seahawks despite averaging more yards per drive than any team in the NFL in Week 1. They posted the same point total versus the Texans, but outgained Houston, 350-234, and averaged 1.4 more yards per play. The receivers dropped five passes, and three potential catches near the sideline were out of bounds. Even worse, Nathaniel Hackett’s play-calling and game management were horrific.

Of course, it didn’t help that Jerry Jeudy left the game with an early injury. Jeudy is day-to-day, so there’s a good chance he’ll return Sunday night. If so, Denver’s aerial offense has a nice outlook against a San Francisco cornerback group that isn’t very strong. The 49ers can make up for this with relentless pressure, but Russell Wilson is protected well.

The 49ers will at least be able to handle the Broncos’ rushing attack. They’ve been stout versus the rush so far, so Javonte Williams will have to do his damage as a receiver out of the backfield.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Trey Lance is out for the year, so John Lynch has to be thanking his lucky stars that no team was willing to trade for Jimmy Garoppolo’s contract this offseason. Garoppolo stepped in for the injured Lance and managed the game well last week. Granted, this was against the horrible Seahawks, but he refrained from making any critical errors.

Garoppolo will have a tougher time in this game, assuming the Broncos get some players back from injury. Linebacker Josey Jewell has been a key absence over the past couple of weeks. Jewell could return this Sunday, and if so, Denver will be much better against the run. Shutting down San Francisco’s rushing attack is the key to limiting this offense, and Denver has the personnel to do that if everyone is on the field.

Cornerback Patrick Surtain Jr. was another key absence this past week. Surtain got hurt early, and like Jeudy, is considered day-to-day. His presence will allow the Broncos to limit Garoppolo’s receivers, all while Garoppolo is dealing with a potent Broncos pass rush.

RECAP: Consider the change in opinion of the Broncos in a span of just seven days. The Broncos were -3 in this game on the advance line. Now, they’re 1.5-point home underdogs! Even better, the public is betting the 49ers as if they are easy money. As of this writing, 90 percent of the money is on San Francisco.

Given how bad Hackett has been, I can’t exactly blame casual bettors for placing tons of cash on the 49ers. However, I think they are wrong to do so. Hackett is an abysmal coach, but the Broncos should not be home underdogs against any team not named the Buffalo Bills. It’s only a matter of time before Wilson and the rest of the offense begins clicking, and I like how Denver matches up with San Francisco.

I love the value we’re getting with the Broncos, and I’m all for buying low on a very talented team. I’m going to bet four or five units on Denver, depending on the injury report. Hopefully I’m not too mad at Hackett after this game!

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I saw some advanced stats in favor of the Broncos, namely that they’ve averaged the second-most yards per drive in the NFL thus far. They’ve been very unlucky, so things should turn around for them. There’s no reason to lock this in yet.

SATURDAY NOTES: Much was made of Denver’s injuries during the week, but Jerry Jeudy might be the only player sidelined in addition to Justin Simmons, who is on IR. Patrick Surtain practiced fully Friday, while KJ Hamler and Josey Jewell could return. Meanwhile, the 49ers might miss Arik Armstead, which is a huge deal. They’ll get George Kittle back, but Armstead is a big loss.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: We’re still waiting on the injuries for the Broncos, but it sounds like Jerry Jeudy and Patrick Surtain will play. I’m hoping there’s some sort of avenue to pay up for a reasonable +3.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s great injury news for the Broncos, who will have Jerry Jeudy, Patrick Surtain Jr. and Josey Jewell back on the field. Despite this, the sharps haven’t played the Broncos (or the 49ers), which is surprising. The best line is +1.5 -105 at Bovada.

Dallas Cowboys (1-1) at New York Giants (2-0)
Line: Giants by 1. Total: 38.5.
Monday, Sept. 26, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Giants.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the worst city in the United States, no, the world, no the galaxy, no the universe! Dallas is where Satan comes from, and by Satan, I mean Jerry Jones. I can laugh though because the Cowboys’ season is in ruin because Dak Prescott broke his hand. Little do the Cowboys know that I paid that guy on the Bucs to break Dak’s hand! Hahahahaha!

Emmitt: Carson Reilly, if you loving the pain and mystery of other, this is call snot en fraud. It also give you bad carvana. This a word from the Native American, who belief that all tree, rock and everything that have a life have carvana, and if he do good thing or bad thing, then have plus or minus carvana.

Reilly: First of all, Emmitt, my name is not Carson Reilly. I hate Carson Wentz because he’s no longer on the Eagles, so he’s dead to me. Second, I think the word you’re looking for is karma.

Tollefson: Kevin, you’re totally right about karma. No one has better karma than I do. The gods love it when I kidnap and enslave women, so I’m definitely going to heaven.

Reilly: I don’t know, Tolly, Mother, before she disowned me, said that if I talk to women, I’ll be buying a one-way ticket to hell because all women are demons, except for Mother, that is.

Adam Schefter: Kevin, I have breaking news for you, straight from Jerry Reese’s approval desk. I can confirm that women, are in fact, demons. Wait, let me check the calendar. Yes, I can confirm that, Kevin. It’s not October yet, so the NFL is not pretending to care about women at the moment.

Goodell: Excuse me, fellow hu-man NFL reporter, we at the NFL care about women. We care about women in October. This month is September. This means the NFL cares about – randomizing – half-Vietnamese transsexuals. We here at the NFL care about half-Vietnamese transsexuals because it is September.

Reilly: I don’t know why the NFL has to pretend that women are not demons. What do you think, Mr. President? Are women demons?

Joe Biden: Now listen here, fat, I’ll challenge you to a pushup contest, and I’m going to win by 500 points, and then I’m going to beat George while I’m running for the Senate. Everyone says I suck the blood out of women, but this is not true! I was telling Ashley, my daughter, this while I was in the shower with her. She didn’t want to be there, but I needed to ice my hand after punching Hunter in the face. I says, “Ashley, are all women demons?” And she says, “Dad, can you please not shower with me?” But she was just kidding because I’m the winner of all pushup contests. I’ll beat anyone here, and then I’ll be listening to the CD player, I mean walkman, with my girlfriend who just got an A+ on her arts and crafts project. If you think she’s a demon, then you got something else coming to ya.

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, wrong, wrong, Sleepy Joe just said he can beat anyone in a pushup contest, but he’s wrong, as usual, the most wrong anyone has ever been, believe me, no one knows how wrong Sleepy Joe is more than I do because no one knows about wrong things more than I do, anyone who tells you otherwise is a total disaster, total disgrace, and believe me, who can do more pushups than me? I was told that I can do the most pushups anyone has ever of, but that’s just what I was told, that’s what everyone says, look, I can do a lot of pushups – more pushups than most people – and believe me, I’m an expert when it comes to pushups, and I can do more pushups than Sleepy Joe, let me tell you, a lot more pushups, more pushups than anyone could ever have imagined, and more pushups than Sleepy Joe can imagine because he’s a total disgrace.

Wolfley: DONALD, YOU SOUND LIKE A GREAT EXPERT AT PUSHUPS BUT NO ONE DOES MORE PUSHUPS THAN MY FRIEND GOHMA. SHE’S AN EIGHT-LEGGED SPIDER WHO IS SHAPED LIKE A FIRE HYDRANT WITH LIPS AND SNOW SHOES.

Reilly: I’m confused. So do you guys think women are demons, or not? New Daddy, please educate me!

Jay Cutler: Ugh, the old lady I live with is a total demon. She makes me do chores like clean up my dinner plate and cover myself when I go to bed. What a c*nt.

Reilly: New Daddy, that is Mother you are talking about! Former Mother, but still! I would gladly do chores if I got to move back in and reclaim my Eagles bobblehead collection.

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you’re talking about chores, Kevin. Let’s discuss other chores, Kevin. How about making the bed, Kevin? What do you think about cleaning the dishes, Kevin? Speaking of cleaning, Kevin, we can clean our bedroom, Kevin. Bet there were no sexual ventures in your bedroom, Kevin. Let’s discuss washing the windows, Kevin. Try your best to talk about cleaning the gutters, Kevin. There’s a tad to chat about mowing the lawn, Kevin. Why don’t we get into our jammies and talk about vacuuming the house, Kevin? And let’s not forget, Kevin, the greatest chore of all, Kevin, is listening to you drone on about your bobbleheads and mother, Kevin.

Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS! EVERYONE LOVES TALKING TO ME, AT LEAST THAT’S WHAT MOTHER USED TO SAY BEFORE SHE DISOWNED ME! We’ll be back after this!

DALLAS OFFENSE: I faded the Cowboys last week for one unit because I like betting against bad teams starting horrible quarterbacks. I assumed Dallas wouldn’t be able to do anything with Cooper Rush playing with a limited receiving corps and an injury-ravaged offensive line. To my surprise, Rush performed well. He made a number of quality throws, leading Dallas to a huge upset victory over Cincinnati.

I remain skeptical, however. I’m willing to concede that Rush may not be a horrible quarterback, but Dallas is still a bad team. The Cowboys’ offensive line is dreadful, and I don’t give them much of a chance to block the Giants. New York will probably have at least one of Kayvon Thibodeaux or Azeez Ojulari back from injury, but it was able to put heavy pressure on Baker Mayfield last week even without those guys.

The Giants also did a good job of putting the clamps on Christian McCaffrey, so they should be able to limit Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard. This will force Rush to do more on his own, which will eventually backfire.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Speaking of potentially turnover-prone quarterbacks, Daniel Jones was begging to give the game away last week. The Panthers couldn’t capitalize, but Jones is always good for at least one turnover.

Dallas figures to create some turnovers from Jones by pressuring him. The one good thing the Cowboys can still do is apply heavy pressure on opposing signal-callers. This happened when they sacked Joe Burrow on six occasions. Micah Parsons and company have the edge in the trenches versus New York’s offensive line.

Jones will be able to limit the sacks and give-aways by feeding the ball to Saquon Barkley. Dallas struggled to stop Leonard Fournette in Week 1, so perhaps Barkley will have a great performance Monday night.

RECAP: We’re getting some nice line value with the Giants. The advance spread was -4.5, yet it’s now just -2.5. This is a reaction to only one game, which was Dallas’ victory over Cincinnati. It was completely unexpected, but in hindsight, it should have been predictable. The Bengals were not focused at all because they took the Rush-led Cowboys lightly, so they didn’t bring their “A” game and lost as a consequence. If the two teams were to play again this Sunday, Cincinnati would clobber Dallas. And then, this spread would be back closer to the -4.5 range.

I don’t love the Giants, or anything, but I’m willing to bet two or three units on them because of the line value and the ability to fade an overreaction by the public. I worry that Jones will throw this game away, but as long as the line is under -3, we should be OK.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I can’t believe that Cooper Rush is two points away from being a road favorite. That’s insane.

SATURDAY NOTES: We have the final injury report, but there isn’t any clarity regarding the unknown players. Micah Parsons and Dalton Schultz had a limited practice to close out the week, so it’s not clear if they’ll be available. I’ll have an update Monday evening.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Again, it’s a shame that Micah Parsons may play, but I’ll still have interest in the Giants.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Micah Parsons is in, but Dalton Schultz and Michael Gallup will be sidelined. Meanwhile, the Giants will have Kayvon Thibodeaux and Azeez Ojulari available. I’d say this is a win for the Giants, though not a huge victory because of Parsons’ availability. The sharps haven’t taken a side here, but I will continue to be on the Giants for two units. The best line is -1 -110 at BetUS and Bovada.