NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 11, 2021

NFL Picks (Preseason 2021): 6-5 (-$350)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2021): 7-9 (-$1,320)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2021): 7-9 (-$2,340)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2021): 8-8 (-$100)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2021): 12-4 (+$1,400)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2021): 5-10-1 (-$1,770)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2021): 7-7 (+$1,025)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2021): 6-7 (-$455)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2021): 5-10 (-$1,210)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2021): 8-6 (+$660)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2021): 9-5 (+$675)

2021 NFL Picks: 80-80-1 (-$3,785)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 21, 11:35 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 11 NFL Picks – Late Games

New England Patriots (6-4) at Atlanta Falcons (4-5)
Line: Patriots by 7. Total: 48.
Thursday, Nov. 18, 8:20 PM

The Matchup. Edge: None.

Week 10 Analysis: We hit our top two picks this week, but the three-unit selections lost. I’ll break down all the multi-unit picks once again:

Colts, 3 units (loss): I really hate this Colts team. They were up 14-0 against the Titans and they failed to cover that eight-unit wager, and this Sunday, they were up 17-0 and just scored six points in the final three quarters. I don’t understand why they can’t hold these big leads.

Steelers, 3 units (loss): I love betting teams missing their starting quarterbacks. This was a rare loss using that strategy. Mason Rudolph was terrible, and I don’t know why Pittsburgh’s defense allowed those long runs.

Panthers, 5 units (win): Never in doubt. There never should be a reality in which Colt McCoy is favored by a touchdown over anyone.

Eagles, 5 units (win): This would have been my November NFL Pick of the Month had a +3.5 been available. Unfortunately, the sharps made sure that wouldn’t happen.

Raiders, 3 units (loss): I’m so mad at myself about this one. I knew it was a matter of time before Patrick Mahomes would snap out of his funk, and it happened the one time I bet against the Chiefs.

Despite these losses, we still had a winning week, so let’s keep it going!

A couple of things: First, I’m going to remind you every week that my wife is due around Christmas, so there will be a week in December when my picks and/or recaps could be released late. Second, I just published a book called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:

This book is not completely about football; it’s more political than anything, so some of you will hate it. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me if Amazon bans it at some point, so get it while you can. Nevertheless, if you want to support the site, please consider ordering a copy!

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Mac Jones has been the best rookie quarterback throughout the season. He sputtered a big in Weeks 8 and 9 against strong pass defenses, but he was terrific this past Sunday versus the Browns. Only four of his passes hit the ground, as Jones sliced through Cleveland’s defense with ease. His great offensive line, which welcomed Trent Brown back from injury, protected him incredibly well.

Jones will have even better protection in this matchup. The Falcons don’t generate pressure on the quarterback well at all. Dante Fowler’s return will help, but Atlanta would need more versus New England’s elite blocking unit.

Jones will need the protection because he’ll have more responsibilities in this game. He was able to lean on Rhamondre Stevenson this past week, but the Falcons are surprisingly stout against the run.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: There’s good news and bad news for the Patriots’ defense regarding this matchup. The bad news is that Bill Belichick won’t be able to dominate another young quarterback this week. Belichick has had fun against Zach Wilson, Justin Herbert, Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield in recent weeks. Matt Ryan has been around much longer, so he won’t be fooled by anything Belichick throws at him.

The good news is that the Falcons don’t really have any weapons for the Patriots to defend. There’s Kyle Pitts, but Belichick can erase one element of an opposing offense. Removing Pitts won’t be tough with Calvin Ridley still MIA.

Cordarrelle Patterson would be the only other option, but it sounds like he’ll miss this game. Mike Davis could have a solid performance in his place – the Patriots tend to be weak against pass-catching running backs – but Ryan will have to deal with immense pressure, so there won’t be constant scoring drives.

RECAP: It’s amazing how much action the Patriots are getting. They were -4 on the advance line. Now, they’re -7 in some sportsbooks, and yet the public is pounding New England like crazy. This is the definition of FOMO, and it’s not surprising either because the national media is hyping up the Patriots to no end even though New England is just a couple of weeks removed from being outgained by the Chargers.

I like the value we’re getting with the Falcons. Outside of last week’s debacle, Atlanta has kept most of its games close this year. The only other exception was the Week 2 defeat against the Buccaneers, which was only a byproduct of two pick-sixes in the second half. I don’t consider the Patriots to be in the same pantheon as the Buccaneers or Cowboys anyway, so I don’t see why this has to be a blowout, especially when Ryan is more than capable of engineering a back-door drive, even without Patterson.

Our Week 11 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It sounds like Cordarrelle Patterson will miss this game. If he’s ruled out, this spread will rise. I may bet a third unit on the Falcons.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread is absurd. The Patriots were -7 against the Jets at home a couple of weeks ago, and now they’re -7 in Atlanta. This line should be closer to -4, which is what the advance number was. I get that Cordarrelle Patterson is sidelined, but what the Falcons should be able to keep this close, even if it’s via a Matt Ryan back-door cover. The best line is +7 -110 at Bovada. This will be a three-unit pick. The sharps have not played a side, but the sharper sportsbooks have +6.5 posted, indicating that they’re asking for Atlanta money.

The Motivation. Edge: Falcons.

The Patriots are coming off a statement win versus the Browns. They play the Titans next week.

The Spread. Edge: Falcons.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Patriots -5.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Patriots -4.
Computer Model: Patriots -7.
DVOA Spread: .

The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on New England: 70% (72,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Falcons.

Patriots are 27-13 ATS on the road vs. NFC opponents since 2001.

Falcons are 33-20 ATS following a loss of 6+ in the previous 52 instances.

Matt Ryan is 15-10 ATS as an underdog of 6+ since his second season.

Opening Line: Patriots -6.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Patriots 24, Falcons 20
Falcons +7 (3 Units) – Bovada — Incorrect; -$330
Under 48 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Patriots 25, Falcons 0

Detroit Lions (0-8-1) at Cleveland Browns (5-5)
Line: Browns by 13. Total: 42.5.
Sunday, Nov. 21, 1:00 PM

The Matchup. Edge: Browns.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Baker Mayfield was horrendous in last week’s blowout loss at New England. Looking like his ghost-seeing draft classmate Sam Darnold, Mayfield transformed into the kid from the Sixth Sense versus Bill Belichick. Mayfield was 11-of-21 for 73 yards, a touchdown and an interception, and yet it could’ve been much worse because he threw three potential picks that were dropped.

Mayfield will perform better this week because it’s a much easier matchup. The Lions have a horrific defense that can’t stop anyone, save for Mason Rudolph, apparently. Mayfield will once again have Jarvis Landry at his disposal after Belichick erased Landry from the game plan. The only concern with Mayfield is that he suffered a knee injury that knocked him out of the New England game, but it sounds like he could have reentered the contest had it not been a blowout.

Nick Chubb will also be available to the Browns once again. Chubb will be back from his 1-week hiatus, returning to find that he’ll be able to trample all over the Lions’ horrendous ground defense.

DETROIT OFFENSE: Mayfield won’t be the only banged-up quarterback in this game, as Jared Goff also got hurt last week. Goff played through the injury, but it’s not like he was going to have a strong performance anyway. Goff often struggles in cold/rainy weather, and he was battling one of the top defenses in the NFL. As a result, Goff had just 54 passing yards in regulation.

Goff is in for another difficult afternoon. It’ll be another cold day for him – weather.com currently projects it to be 41 degrees – and the Browns’ defense will be pissed after being embarrassed in New England. Myles Garrett and company will hound Goff, forcing him into some bad throws.

The one concern for the Browns’ defense is trying to stop D’Andre Swift. Cleveland just surrendered a big game to Rhamondre Stevenson, but the supporting cast around Swift is a lot worse, so the Browns can focus on containing him.

RECAP: I love betting good teams coming off embarrassing losses, and what the Browns went through in New England certainly qualifies. The Patriots clobbered them in a one-sided blowout, so I suspect Cleveland will perform much better this week. The public does not believe this will happen – most of the betting action is on Detroit, inexplicably – so this is an opportunity to buy low on the Browns, who, as many have forgotten, destroyed the Bengals two weeks ago.

Meanwhile, the Lions have been on-off-on-off-on-off all year. They were off in their pre-bye blowout loss versus the Eagles, and they were on at Pittsburgh. I suspect they’ll be off this week, especially given that they’re coming off a grueling, five-quarter tie. Making matters worse for them, Goff will have to deal with a bad-weather situation. He was anemic last week, and I suspect he’ll have a similar performance against an angry Cleveland squad.

The one concern I have with the Browns is the health of Mayfield. His status will determine my unit count, so check back later or follow me @walterfootball.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Jared Goff has been sidelined during practice on Wednesday and Thursday with an injury. Tim Boyle, one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL, took the reps instead. I don’t know what this number will be if Goff is ruled out. I was hoping to lock in the Browns at -10 yesterday, but those lines were gone by the time I saw the Goff news.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Lions will be starting Tim Boyle, who has never done a single thing to impress me during preseason action. They’ll also be missing Trey Flowers, meaning they’ll be down their top two edge rushers. The Browns, meanwhile, are coming off an embarrassing loss and will be looking to rebound. However, Baker Mayfield had just one full practice this week, so his limitations could hurt Cleveland as it attempts to cover this high spread. I still like the Browns a lot, but I’m reducing the unit count to three because of the line movement up to -13.

FOR-FUN PARLAY: This is a for-fun five-team parlay where I’m including moneylines or alternative bets for my top picks. The Ravens are not included because that game is off the board at Bookmaker at the moment. The picks in this parlay are the Browns moneyline, Jaguars +7.5, Redskins +3.5, Eagles -2.5 and Seahawks +3.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Jared Goff is officially out. This line should be higher than -13, as Tim Boyle is not an NFL-caliber quarterback. I’m on Cleveland for three units at -13 -103 (Bookmaker). The sharps haven’t really touched this game.

The Motivation. Edge: Browns.

The Browns are coming off an embarrassing loss.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Browns -10.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Browns -10.
Computer Model: Browns -10.
DVOA Spread: .

The Vegas. Edge: None.
The public is on the Lions.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 59% (55,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Browns.

Lions are 14-22 ATS on the road vs. teams with winning records since 2011.

Lions are 12-20 ATS as underdogs of 6 or more since 2011.

Lions are 5-11 ATS before their Thanksgiving game since 2005.

Opening Line: Browns -10.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: Possible light rain, 49 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Browns 27, Lions 6
Browns -13 -103 (3 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$310
Parlay: Browns ML, Jaguars +7.5, Redskins +3.5, Eagles -2.5, Seahawks +3 (0.5 Units to win 5.4) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$50
Under 42.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Browns 13, Lions 10

San Francisco 49ers (4-5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-7)
Line: 49ers by 7. Total: 45.5.
Sunday, Nov. 21, 1:00 PM

The Matchup. Edge: 49ers.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 28-21 so far this year. As you can tell, the sportsbooks have taken a beating.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Buccaneers -9.5

Rams -3.5

Ravens -7.5

Chiefs -2.5

Titans -3

Bills -13

The highest-bet teams were 2-4 this past week. It was a great week for the sportsbooks, especially when factoring in the Ravens teasers failing.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Packers -2.5

Patriots -7

Chargers -4.5

Panthers -3.5

Titans -10

Bengals -1

Once again, mostly road favorites. I’d chide the public for not learning their lesson, but they’ve won with these all year (prior to Week 9, that is).

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Including Jimmy Garoppolo’s scrambles, the 49ers ran the ball 44 times against the Rams on Monday night. They had success doing so, controlling the clock for 39 minutes in what turned out to be a huge statement win.

The 49ers will once again look to pound the ball with Elijah Mitchell and their other running backs. Jonathan Taylor just eclipsed the century mark against the Jaguars, so it would be logical to conclude that San Francisco will have similar success moving the chains on the ground. However, Jacksonville’s defense bottled up Taylor in the second half, limiting him to just nine rushing yards, which was a reason why the team nearly made a comeback from down 17-0. I’m not sure if this was a fluke or not, but it’s worth considering.

The Jaguar pass rush has improved lately as well. They’ve hounded Josh Allen and Carson Wentz the past two weeks, and they’ll figure to do the same to Garoppolo, especially with right tackle Mike McGlinchey out of the lineup. That said, if Garoppolo has time, he’ll be able to exploit the liabilities in the Jaguar back seven. Deebo Samuel and George Kittle both have plus matchups.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The Jaguars actually outgained the Colts last week, only losing because of a blocked punt returned for a touchdown. Trevor Lawrence was dreadful in the opening half because of an ankle injury, but improved following intermission. If he didn’t fumble at midfield in the final minutes, he may have pulled the upset.

This is not an overly difficult matchup for Lawrence, despite what we saw from Matthew Stafford on Monday night. Prior to the hobbled Stafford struggling, we saw Colt McCoy and Justin Fields have plenty of success against San Francisco’s injury-ravaged defense. If a Fields-led offense could generate 324 net yards versus the 49ers, a Lawrence-led Jacksonville attack should be able to do so as well.

James Robinson wasn’t even fully healthy last week, so his upgraded status will be a nice boon for the Jaguars. The 49ers are just two weeks removed from allowing James Conner to have one of the best performances of his career, and Robinson is even better. The Rams couldn’t take advantage of this soft run defense because they were in a 14-0 hole right away. If the Jaguars can find a way to keep this game close, Robinson will likely have a monster performance.

RECAP: I’m sure everyone will want to bet the 49ers now after they thrashed the Rams on national TV. This is in stark contrast to the week before, when everyone wanted to fade the 49ers following their embarrassing loss to the Cardinals.

This is a major letdown spot for San Francisco. The team is a large road favorite following a big victory as an underdog against its arch rival. The 49ers likely believe they’ll be able to walk all over the Jaguars, so I don’t think they’ll bring their A+ effort to this game. If not, they’ll have trouble covering this large spread, which is all too common for them; Kyle Shanahan is 6-14 against the spread as a favorite of 3.5 or more.

The Jaguars, meanwhile, have been surprisingly competitive lately. They outgained the Colts last week, only losing because of that blocked punt. The week before, they defeated Buffalo. Two games prior to that, they beat the Dolphins. They had a stinker at Seattle in between, but that was just a bad circumstance with a first-year head coach coming off a bye.

I think there’s value with the Jaguars, especially with this spread rising. The advance line was -5.5, and yet now it’s -7 in some sportsbooks. I think Jacksonville is worth a wager, though they’re a difficult team to trust.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s been a ton of action on the 49ers, as expected, and yet this line dropped down to the +6.5/+6 range from +7. The sharps bet the Jaguars.

SATURDAY NOTES: Despite this line moving through six from the advance line of 49ers -5.5, the public is betting the 49ers like they think this is free money. The 49ers, however, will be down their top three running backs, so they won’t have much of a ground attack. The 49ers will also be flat off their big win as an underdog, while Jacksonville has performed above expectations lately. I’m bumping this up to four units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m surprised the sharps haven’t jumped on the Jaguars. The public has taken this line to +7, which is music to my ears because I still really like the Jaguars at this inflated number. The best line is +7 -110 at FanDuel.

The Motivation. Edge: Jaguars.

The 49ers are big favorites after winning a big game as an underdog.

The Spread. Edge: Jaguars.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -4.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: 49ers -5.5.
Computer Model: 49ers -9.
DVOA Spread: .

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.

Tons of money on the 49ers.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 73% (46,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Kyle Shanahan is 6-14 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 or more.

Jaguars are 49-90 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Jaguars are 15-43 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2007.

Opening Line: 49ers -5.5.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 67 degrees. Light wind.

Week 11 NFL Pick: 49ers 23, Jaguars 20
Jaguars +7 (4 Units) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$440
Under 45 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
49ers 30, Jaguars 10

Indianapolis Colts (5-5) at Buffalo Bills (6-3)
Line: Bills by 7. Total: 49.5.
Sunday, Nov. 21, 1:00 PM

The Matchup. Edge: Colts.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. We got just a bit this week:

Just heard from the infamous Frank Sebastiano, one of our better hate mailers:

What a classy guy. He didn’t respond, likely because, for the first time in his life, he had to come to terms that he is the bad guy despite his virtue signaling.

Here’s someone who hates my for-fun parlay:

How many times do I have to say that I expect the parlay to lose? It’s for fun! Why do so many people hate fun?

Here’s a common misunderstanding:

I’ve gotten so many comments like this over the years, and I’m always proven right in the end. Professional athletes slack off sometimes. People may not like it, but it happens frequently.

Here’s a guy who doesn’t understand how seriously I’ve been about the minor illness:

BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Bills certainly snapped out of their funk last week. They somehow scored six points on the Jaguars, but with right tackle Spencer Brown and tight end Dawson Knox returning to the field, they were able to generate way more points in Week 10.

Of course, it helped that the Bills were battling the Jets. This matchup won’t be so easy, provided that the Colts don’t have too many missing players. Indianapolis lost a couple of cornerbacks to injury in the second half versus Jacksonville, which was problematic because Xavier Rhodes was already out of the lineup. A healthy cornerback group could help limit the Bills’ many weapons.

Then again, Allen will figure to have plenty of time in the pocket. The Colts have not pressured opposing quarterbacks well this year, so with the added protection, Allen will have the time he needs to dissect the opposing secondary.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: While the Colts haven’t pressured quarterbacks well, the Bills have been the best team in that regard. Their No. 1 pressure rate crushed Mike White, ruining the hopes and dreams of his entire fan base last week. Buffalo’s front will attempt to rattle Carson Wentz as well.

I wouldn’t normally say that Wentz could be rattled because he’s protected by a talented offensive line. However, Wentz has self-destructed lately. He threw two horrendous interceptions late against the Titans, and he was lucky to get away with not throwing a pick versus the Jaguars, as he attempted his patented left-handed throw while getting hit. He also added an underhanded heave as a bonus. If he tries this nonsense against the Bills, he will be punished.

That said, Wentz will have some success if he utilizes Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines as receivers out of the backfield. We saw White move the chains with tosses to Michael Carter and Ty Johnson last week, and that was with Buffalo aiming to take away the short passing game.

RECAP: This spread feels high for an Indianapolis team that has been competitive in games versus the Rams, Ravens and Titans. They easily could have beaten all three of those teams, and if they had, they would be 8-2 right now. If that were the case, this spread would obviously be much lower, perhaps closer to -3 or -3.5.

The reality is that the Colts are 5-5 instead of 8-2, so this spread is -7. This is even higher than the advance spread of -6.5, so we’re getting even more value. No one has interest in the Colts, however, because they barely beat the Jaguars last week, while Buffalo thrashed the Jets. I’m not convinced that the Bills solved all of their problems, so I’m going with the underdog. That said, I have some concern for the health of the Indianapolis defenders, as mentioned, so if too many players are out, I may switch to Buffalo.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I thought about switching my pick to the Bills. However, I’m keeping this selection right where it is because it sounds like Bills right tackle Spencer Brown will be missing this game with a minor illness. This means Buffalo will be down two offensive linemen again. This will obviously help the Colts, who need all the assistance they can get with their lackluster pass rush.

SATURDAY NOTES: The weather doesn’t appear to be too bad, but Xavier Rhodes will play. I’m still very torn on this game. I’m actually going to switch to the Bills if Spencer Brown can play. If not, I’ll have high interest in the Colts.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Spencer Brown is out, so I like the Colts. I’m going to bet two units on them. The Bills could have problem blocking without two of their offensive linemen, and the sharps are betting on the Colts. The best line is +7 -110, which is available at most sportsbooks.

The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -8.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bills -6.5.
Computer Model: Bills -10.
DVOA Spread: .

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 59% (59,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Bills -7.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 48 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Bills 27, Colts 21
Colts +7 (2 Units) – most sportsbooks — Correct; +$200
Under 49.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Colts 41, Bills 15

Miami Dolphins (3-7) at New York Jets (1-8)
Line: Dolphins by 4. Total: 44.5.
Sunday, Nov. 21, 1:00 PM

The Matchup. Edge: Dolphins.

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NEW YORK OFFENSE: I’m beginning with the Jets because they have the fluid quarterback situation. Zach Wilson wasn’t active last week because the team clearly wanted to see what it had in Mike White. Following White’s severe struggles against the Bills, I imagine Wilson is miraculously feeling so much better. I’ll be surprised if he’s not the starter in this game.

This is not a good spot for Wilson. He’ll be battling a great defensive-minded coach in Brian Flores, and we’ve seen Wilson have some horrendous showings against other sharp defensive coaches. Furthermore, the Dolphins blitz at the highest rate in the NFL. Wilson, predictably, has been horrendous against the blitz this season. When not blitzed, Wilson has completed 62.7 percent of his passes on a 7.3 YPA with four touchdowns and seven interceptions. That’s bad, but not abysmal. When blitzed, Wilson has a 42.6 completion rate, a 4.2 YPA, no touchdowns and two picks. Yikes!

The Jets can shield Wilson from this by running the ball frequently. Michael Carter has looked good since emerging as the primary ball-carrier, so he could exploit Miami’s poor ground defense.

MIAMI OFFENSE: We already know Tua Tagovailoa will start this game. Tagovailoa saved the Dolphins last week when Jacoby Brissett suffered an injury. He threw some shaky passes to begin the second half, but he hit some big plays as well to help Miami pull the upset.

This is an easy matchup for Tagovailoa as long as his pass protection holds. The Jets are missing their two starting safeties, including Marcus Maye, so they’ll be threatened by some deep passes. Of course, Tagovailoa will need time in the pocket, and he may not get any because his offensive line is poor.

Unlike Wilson, Tagovailoa won’t be able to rely on the rushing attack as much. Myles Gaskin is a nifty receiver out of the backfield, but he’s not a very good runner. I don’t think he’ll be able to fully take advantage of the Jets’ rush defense.

RECAP: This is a tough game to handicap because there are conflicting elements. I want to fade the Dolphins because this could be a flat spot for them. They’re coming off a huge upset victory over the Ravens on national TV. They’re now favored, so I don’t think we’ll see the same level of effort from them in this contest. Furthermore, we lost value with the Dolphins, as the advance spread was -2.5. It’s now -3, which is the primary key number. Based on the increased vig, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see some -3.5s soon.

The Jets sound great until you consider that Wilson is going to be destroyed by the Dolphins’ blitz. Great defensive-minded coaches like Flores tend to sit on rookie quarterbacks, especially bad ones like Wilson.

With that in mind, I’m nowhere near betting this game. For office pool purposes, I’m going to take the value and fade the team that may not try its hardest.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Joe Flacco will start. While this is stupid for the long term, Flacco gives the Jets the best chance of winning this game because he’s neutral to the blitz, unlike Mike White and Zach Wilson, both of whom are miserable against the blitz. I may decide to bet the Jets.

SATURDAY NOTES: Given the amount of action on this game, most people can’t stomach a bet on Joe Flacco even though he gives the Jets the best chance to win among the three quarterbacks. I still like the Jets enough to bet a couple of units on them.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This is another dog the sharps aren’t touching, which is a surprise to me. Tons of public action has moved this line to -4. The best line for the Jets is +4 -105 at Bovada.

The Motivation. Edge: Jets.

The Dolphins just had a victory as a big underdog and are now favored.

The Spread. Edge: Jets.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Dolphins -1.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Jets -2.
Computer Model: Dolphins -6.
DVOA Spread: .

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.

Tons of action on the Dolphins.

Percentage of money on Miami: 72% (42,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Dolphins have won 6 of the last 7 meetings.

Opening Line: Dolphins -3.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: Cloudy, 53 degrees. Light wind.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Dolphins 17, Jets 16
Jets +4 -105 (2 Units) – Bovada — Incorrect; -$210
Under 44.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Dolphins 24, Jets 17

Washington Redskins (3-6) at Carolina Panthers (5-5)
Line: Panthers by 3.5. Total: 43.
Sunday, Nov. 21, 1:00 PM

The Matchup. Edge: Redskins.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Props page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

CAROLINA OFFENSE: The Panthers are preparing for this game as if Cam Newton will start. Newton drew lots of acclaim from the media this past week despite playing only nine snaps. You have to feel for Phillip Walker, who actually beat the Cardinals to improve to 7-0 as a starter in professional football.

There’s no telling how rusty Newton will be as a full-time passer. Newton may also be shocked to learn that he won’t have a good offensive line protecting him. Pass blocking was already a concern for Carolina to begin with, but the team has two starting offensive linemen on injured reserve. Luckily, Newton will be able to pick up some first downs with his legs. Then again, his former head coach, Ron Rivera, will know how to handle his former quarterback.

Newton will also want to rely on Christian McCaffrey, just as Walker did this past week. McCaffrey had a huge game for Arizona, but missed the end of it with some sort of a hamstring injury. We’ll see if that ends up mattering at all because his absence would really bog down this offense.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: While the Panthers are missing two offensive linemen, the Redskins obtained two back from injury this past week, as Brandon Scherff and Sam Cosmi returned from extended hiatuses. The result was a 29-point onslaught by the Redskins versus the Buccaneers, as they held the ball for 39 minutes and generated 320 net yards of offense in the process.

I expect another positive performance from the Redskins because they match up well versus the Panthers. Carolina blitzes at the sixth-highest rate in the NFL, which is bullish for Taylor Heinicke because he tends to do well versus the blitz. Heinicke has thrown four touchdowns and no interceptions on a 7.4 YPA when blitzed this year, compared to eight touchdowns and nine picks on a 7.1 YPA when not blitzed. The Buccaneers blitz frequently as well, and we saw what Heinicke did to them.

Furthermore, the Panthers are very weak to the run. Antonio Gibson was bottled up against Tampa’s terrific ground defense, but he’ll have a much easier matchup this time, especially behind his healthy offensive line.

RECAP: I never would have imagined that we’d gain value with a team that beat Tom Brady by double digits. The Redskins impressively handled the Buccaneers, 29-19, and yet they’ve moved from +2 on the advance spread to +3.5. That’s insane, and that’s not even factoring in all the public money coming in on Carolina!

The reason for this, of course, is the return of Newton. I’ve heard so many people say, “The Panthers are so great with Newton now!” and “Newton was great in his first game back!” He played nine snaps! He scored on some gadget plays. Whoop-dee-freaking-doo.

The Redskins match up well versus the Panthers. As mentioned, Heinicke excels versus the blitz, and Gibson will rip right through Carolina’s poor run defense. Meanwhile, the Panthers are 2-5 in their previous seven games, and yet people are betting them to win by more than a field goal with a new starting quarterback who could be rusty while battling his former coach.

The Redskins at +3.5 or higher seem like such an obvious play to me. I’m considering them as my November NFL Pick of the Month. They have the edges in the matchup, motivation, spread and Vegas. I discussed the matchup, spread and Vegas already. As for motivation, the Panthers are coming off a huge blowout victory as a big underdog, and now they’re a healthy favorite. I don’t think we’ll see the same A+ effort this week.

Assuming there are no injury surprises, I will pull the trigger on the eight units.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There are no surprises on the injury report, so I’m going to lock this in because there’s sharp action on the Redskins that will drag this spread down to +3. It’s already moving. The best +3.5 line available is at Bookmaker for -119 vig.

SATURDAY NOTES: Nothing has changed at all regarding this pick. I still love the Redskins.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Redskins at +3.5, but not at +3, which is disappointing. You can still get a viable +3.5 for -120 vig at square books like Bovada or BetUS.

The Motivation. Edge: Redskins.

The Panthers are coming off a huge win as an underdog and are now favored.

The Spread. Edge: Redskins.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Panthers -2.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Panthers -2.
Computer Model: Panthers -7.
DVOA Spread: .

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action after early Panthers money.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 59% (50,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Panthers -3.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 60 degrees. Light wind.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Redskins 23, Panthers 17
Redskins +3.5 -119 (8 Units – November NFL Pick of the Month) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$800
Under 43 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Redskins 27, Panthers 21

Baltimore Ravens (6-3) at Chicago Bears (3-6)
Line: Ravens by 3. Total: 43.
Sunday, Nov. 21, 1:00 PM

The Matchup. Edge: Ravens.

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BALTIMORE OFFENSE: One of the reasons why I liked the Dolphins on Thursday night was that they blitz at a high rate. Lamar Jackson is one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL against the blitz, and it showed in that contest. Jackson struggled to do anything throughout the evening despite being a heavy favorite.

Jackson will be glad to know that the Bears blitz at one of the lowest rates in the NFL. Furthermore, the Ravens might be getting one of their injured offensive linemen, Patrick Mekari, back from injury after a long rest period. The Ravens were down multiple offensive linemen at Miami, which made life even more difficult for Jackson.

Assuming Mekari returns, Jackson will have plenty of time to locate his weapons for big gains. Marquise Brown has a positive matchup versus Chicago’s poor cornerbacks, while Mark Andrews will look to pick up where Pat Freiermuth left off against this Bears defense.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Unlike Jackson, Justin Fields will be seeing plenty of blitz pressure in this game, as the Ravens blitz at the third-highest rate in the NFL. The last time Fields battled a defense that blitzes as often as the Ravens, he self-destructed versus Tampa Bay.

The Bears’ offensive line stinks, so I expect the Ravens to put lots of pressure on Fields. That said, Fields will be able to escape the pocket and make some plays. The Ravens have struggled to tackle, so Darnell Mooney and Allen Robinson could have some long gains.

I wouldn’t expect much out of David Montgomery, however. The Ravens are much better against the run, and they figure to have Brandon Williams back after the big nose tackle missed two games.

RECAP: I always mention this, but I love betting good teams coming off embarrassing losses. Baltimore’s ugly defeat against the Dolphins obviously applies. The Ravens have had extra time to stew about this defeat, which has an added bonus of John Harbaugh having more time to prepare. Great coaches often excel with this extra preparation time, and Harbaugh obviously qualifies as a great coach.

Harbaugh and his staff will likely recognize how to beat Fields, which, as mentioned, would be blitzing him often. Meanwhile, Baltimore’s offense will rebound from such an ugly performance in this better matchup. I like the Ravens quite a bit in this spot, especially if Mekari returns from injury.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread has plummeted because Lamar Jackson was sent home with some sort of illness. This isn’t the virus that’s killing 80-year-old people, so Jackson seems very likely to play Sunday. Thus, I’m going to lock in the Ravens at this reduced price. If Jackson doesn’t play, so be it, but if he does, we’re getting an amazing discount. The best line is at Bookmaker (-4 -113).

SATURDAY NOTES: Lamar Jackson returned to practice Friday. He’s listed as questionable, but should play. I’m glad I locked this in at -4 because the line has soared to -6. Not only is Jackson back; the Bears will be missing Allen Robinson, Khalil Mack and Akiem Hicks! Knowing these injuries, I’m upset that I didn’t put more units on the -4 line. I’d bet three units at -6.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Lamar Jackson was not on the injury report on Friday, yet he’s out with an illness. As a doctor, I would recommend that he adds lots of Vitamin C and D to his diet because he shouldn’t be sick this often. Tyler Huntley will start, which is exciting because he’s never started before, meaning Chicago’s skeleton-crew defense has no film on him. I love playing good teams with their backup quarterbacks, so I think Baltimore could still cover the previous spreads, including the -4 I bet. In fact, I’m going to add two units to this game because I think the Ravens will win this game. The best current line is -1 -108 at Bookmaker.

The Motivation. Edge: Bears.

The Ravens are coming off an embarrassing loss.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Ravens -6.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -6.
Computer Model: Ravens -6.
DVOA Spread: .

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.
Slight lean on the Ravens early, but lots of late money arrived before the Lamar Jackson news.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 56% (52,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Ravens -6.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 47 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Ravens 23, Bears 16
Ravens -4 -113 (3 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$340
Ravens -1 -108 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$200
Under 43 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Ravens 16, Bears 13

New Orleans Saints (5-4) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-6)
Line: Eagles by 3. Total: 42.
Sunday, Nov. 21, 1:00 PM

The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Eagles looked great against the Broncos last week. They ran the ball with ease, while Jalen Hurts was precise on most of his throws despite losing Dallas Goedert to a concussion. Of course, it should be considered that they were battling a Denver defense missing six starters.

This is going to be a much more difficult matchup for the Eagles. They’ve been running the ball extremely well since being embarrassed in Las Vegas, but the Saints have one of the toughest ground defenses in the NFL. Jordan Howard and Boston Scott won’t be picking up big chunks of yardage like they have against three of the softer rush defenses in the NFL (Lions, Chargers, Broncos).

Furthermore, the Saints are terrific at taking away the opposing No. 1 receiver. They recently erased Mike Evans and A.J. Brown. DeVonta Smith is next. This is problematic for the Eagles because Smith is the only consistent threat at wide receiver. It gets even worse when considering Goedert may miss this game with a concussion.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Eagles don’t match up so well against the Saints on this side of the ball either. That may sound odd because Trevor Siemian is currently quarterbacking the Saints, but New Orleans will have positive edges when possessing the football.

Primarily, the Saints will be able to attack Philadelphia’s anemic linebacking corps if Alvin Kamara is back from injury. The Eagles don’t defend running backs well as receivers out of the backfield, and Kamara specializes in this area. The Eagles are also woeful against tight ends, so the emerging Adam Trautman figures to thrive.

The one hope Philadelphia has is if Terron Armstead is sidelined once again. The terrific left tackle missed last week’s game, but he may return to help protect against a potent defensive front. If not, the Saints will be down two starting offensive linemen, though backup James Hurst has done a decent job filling in for him.

RECAP: Again, this seems like a great matchup for the Saints. They’ll be able to stop the Eagles’ running game and limit DeVonta Smith. Philadelphia, meanwhile, has gotten some hype lately, which has caused this spread to jump to -1.5 from the advance line of pick ’em. However, Philadelphia’s two recent wins have come against the Lions and injury-ravaged Broncos. Before each of those victories, they were clobbered by the Raiders and beaten by the Chargers. Those teams are of the same caliber as the Saints.

I understand that it may seem uneasy betting on Siemian to effectively win outright, but I like betting good teams with their backup quarterbacks. Siemian just nearly defeated Tennessee on the road despite the Titans getting two lucky touchdowns on the roughing-the-passer call and the fumbled kickoff return, so I think he’ll be able to defeat the Eagles as long as he has all of his personnel.

Speaking of that personnel, I won’t have as much interest in the Saints if Kamara and Armstead are sidelined, so I’ll be looking forward to checking out the injury report. For a more definitive pick, check back later or follow me @walterfootball.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The good news for the Saints is that Alvin Kamara was limited in Wednesday’s practice. The bad news is that Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramczyk were both sidelined Wednesday. This has caused the spread to move in Philadelphia’s favor, but then it dropped in the Saints’ direction after that. It seems as though the sharps are mixed on this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: The injury report looks terrible for the Saints. Not only will Alvin Kamara be out, but the Saints will also be missing three offensive linemen, including their starting tackles, Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramczyk. They could survive without Armstead, but Ramczyk being out complicates matters greatly. Thus, I’m switching to the Eagles and betting them, which is what the sharps have done.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m kicking myself for not locking this in yesterday because this line has moved to -3, thanks to sharp action on the Eagles. The best current line is -3 -105 at Bovada.

The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -1.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Pick.
Computer Model: Saints -2.
DVOA Spread: .

The Vegas. Edge: None.
The Saints are a public dog.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 58% (46,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

Eagles are 4-15 ATS before playing the Giants since December 2010.

Opening Line: Eagles -1.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Cloudy, 54 degrees. Light wind.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Eagles 17, Saints 10
Eagles -3 -105 (3 Units) – Bovada — Correct; +$300
Under 42 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Eagles 40, Saints 29

Houston Texans (1-8) at Tennessee Titans (8-2)
Line: Titans by 10. Total: 44.5.
Sunday, Nov. 21, 1:00 PM

The Matchup. Edge: Titans.

Video of the Week: Let me warn you, this video has some not-safe-for-work language, so keep that in mind before you hit the play button and listen to this amazing anti-authoritarian song (thanks, Patrick P.):

I think the only way to defeat these establishment, authoritarian creeps is through music and movies. This was great, though I imagine YouTube will find a way to delete this soon.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: I just saw that a Web site that focuses a bit too much on Aaron Rodgers has placed the Titans atop their power rankings. This is laughable because Tennessee has produced nothing on this side of the ball the past two weeks. Sure, they’ve won, but they’ve tallied just 194 and 264 net yards in their first two games without Derrick Henry. That doesn’t sound like the No. 1 team in the league to me!

Having said that, they were matched up against two of the better defenses in the NFL (Rams, Saints). The Texans, by contrast, are miserable on this side of the ball. Their secondary is a mess, so A.J. Brown will thrive after being locked down by Jalen Ramsey and Marshon Lattimore in consecutive weeks. There’s no cornerback remotely of that caliber on Houston’s offense, so Brown will have a huge performance. Ryan Tannehill will make good use of his tight ends as well, given the Texans’ inability to cover that position.

I also expect the Titans to run the ball well. D’Onta Foreman is no Henry, obviously, but he looked good in a very difficult matchup versus New Orleans. He’ll thrive against the woeful Texans.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: I expected more out of Tyrod Taylor upon his return to action in his previous game. Yet, all he could muster was nine points against the Dolphins. The Texans had many miscues in the red zone, but it’s not like their offense was very functional; it averaged just 4.1 yards per play.

Taylor was rusty, but he’s not completely to blame. His offensive line is terrible. It wasn’t too bad to start the year, but Houston is currently missing Laremy Tunsil and center Justin Britt. That bodes very poorly in this matchup, considering how much pressure the Titans bring. They have have the 11th-best pressure rate in the NFL, a figure that’s growing each week because of improvements made following a slow start to the season. Tennessee will harass Taylor all afternoon.

The Texans have no running game, so their one hope is that Taylor can use his legs to buy time in order to connect with Brandin Cooks. Tennessee’s cornerbacks can be torched, and Cooks is talented enough to exploit this matchup.

RECAP: I don’t see how the Texans keep this game close. They’re coming off a bye, but this will actually hurt them. First-year head coaches have covered the spread just once coming off byes in the past two years. They’re at just such a big disadvantage because of their inexperience.

I thought there might be some hesitancy to betting the Titans without Henry and Julio Jones, as they haven’t accumulated much yardage without them in the past two games. As mentioned, however, they’ve battled the Rams and Saints, two of the best defenses in the NFL. The Texans can’t stop anyone, so I expect Tennessee to score plenty of points. That said, there’s a ton of public money on Tennessee, which is surprising and disappointing.

I’m going to pick the Titans to cover, but I’m likely not going to pull the trigger on a wager. I’m just not convinced we’ll get Tennessee’s A+ effort. The Titans are coming off some very tough games in so many consecutive weeks. This is the first time they’ll be a huge favorite over a weak opponent, so it’s an obvious letdown spot.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This is still a game I don’t plan on betting. I’d actually like the Texans if they weren’t coming off a bye.

SATURDAY NOTES: Never mind about liking the Texans if they weren’t coming off a bye. I can’t bet on a team with such a bad offensive line. I’m sticking with the Titans, though I’m not sure if they will bring their A+ effort this week.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still have no feel for this game. The sharps bet the Texans at +10.5, but not at +10. The best line for Tennessee is -10 -108 at Bookmaker. FanDuel has +10.5 -115 available for the Texans if you like them.

The Motivation. Edge: Texans.

The Titans are coming off some big wins and could be flat as a huge favorite.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Titans -10.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Titans -10.
Computer Model: Titans -15.
DVOA Spread: .

The Vegas. Edge: Texans.

I’m surprised there’s not more money on the Titans.

Percentage of money on Tennessee: 65% (63,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Texans.

History: Titans have won the last 3 meetings.

Texans are 48-38 ATS after two or more consecutive losses (8-11 ATS as favorites).

Opening Line: Titans -10.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: Rain, 57 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Titans 24, Texans 10
Titans -10 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 44.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Texans 22, Titans 13

Green Bay Packers (8-2) at Minnesota Vikings (4-5)
Line: Packers by 1.5. Total: 47.5.
Sunday, Nov. 21, 1:00 PM

The Matchup. Edge: Vikings.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are complete. They may return in the future, but I had to stop them for now.

By the way, my other book is still available as well:

In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: I had a bet on the Packers planned last week, but I removed it when Rodgers was diagnosed with some sort of toe injury. I missed out on some units as a result, though I was right about Rodgers not having a great game. He ended up winning, but scoring just 17 points on the Seahawks was not an impressive feat.

Rodgers will be healthier this week, so I’m expecting a better performance. It’ll help Rodgers if he has David Bakhtiari in the lineup, as the Vikings have the second-best pressure rate in the NFL. Bakhtiari seemed like he would play versus Seattle, but he decided to wait one more week, likely for this matchup. Having him protecting Rodgers’ blind side once more would be a huge boon to the Green Bay passing attack.

The Packers will be missing Aaron Jones, who suffered an MCL injury against the Seahawks. I heard various NFL analysts say this was a big deal, but it might be a blessing in disguise because it’ll only allow A.J. Dillon to handle most of the workload. Vikings nose tackle Michael Pierce has been missing for a while, so if he can’t return, Dillon will have a big game on the ground.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Speaking of talented running backs, you better believe that the Vikings will get the ball into Dalvin Cook’s hands early and often. Cook has a dream matchup against a Packer defense that has been weak to the run for quite some time.

Cook’s excellent running will allow better passing opportunities for Kirk Cousins, who won’t see much pressure because of a couple of Packer injuries. Green Bay lost Whitney Mercilus and Rashan Gary last week. Mercilus is done for the season, while Gary could miss some time with a hyperextended elbow. These two players being out of the lineup will certainly make Cousins’ life easier.

Cousins will make good use of this extra time in the pocket by connecting to his talented receivers. Until the Packers get Jaire Alexander back from injury, they can be beaten downfield. Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen will certainly exploit that liability.

RECAP: The Vikings are one of the most underrated teams in the NFL. They’re 4-5, but they lost in overtime to the Bengals and Ravens, and they were a missed chip-shot field goal away from beating the Cardinals in Week 2. They could easily be 7-2 right now.

That said, I’m not going to pick them this week. I’ve realized that the Vikings are easy to diagnose. They’re a solid team that will always play close games, so they should be the side when underdogs of three or more, and they should be faded when favored by a substantial amount. They can also be faded in tight affairs like this one. It’s rare that Cousins has a huge win when there are some expectations. His signature victories come when no one expects it, like beating the Saints as a touchdown underdog in the playoffs. Here, he’s just a 2.5-point dog, so some people expect him to win. This is when he typically falls short.

That’s all I have for this game. I don’t know if that was the most convincing argument, but I expect Rodgers to find a way to win this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Vikings are getting some players back from injury, so they continue to look like the right side – until you factor in that Kirk Cousins will probably find some way to lose a big game to Aaron Rodgers. The sharps disagree.

SATURDAY NOTES: This entire week, I’ve been declaring that I like the Packers because Aaron Rodgers will find some way to lead them to victory. However, Rodgers is injured. He was DDL in practice this week with a toe issue. Rodgers will need his legs to evade the No. 2 pressure defense in the NFL, especially with David Bakhtiari still sidelined. With the Vikings getting back players from injury, I’m going to switch to them, though I wouldn’t bet them.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Rashan Gary is out for the Packers, which is a big deal because they have other injury issues at the position. With Aaron Rodgers banged up, the Vikings seem like the right side. The best line is +1.5 -105 at Bovada and DraftKings. The sharps are on Minnesota.

The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -1.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Packers -2.
Computer Model: Packers -1.
DVOA Spread: .

The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.

The public doesn’t think Minnesota has a chance.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 71% (62,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Packers have won 14 of the last 19 meetings Aaron Rodgers has played fully, excluding a 2018 tie.

Packers are 56-33 ATS in divisional games since 2006.

Aaron Rodgers is 117-75 ATS since 2009.

Mike Zimmer is 71-50 ATS as head coach of the Vikings.

Vikings are 34-24 ATS at home since 2014.

Opening Line: Packers -2.5.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Vikings 23, Packers 20
Vikings +1.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 47.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Vikings 34, Packers 31

Week 11 NFL Picks – Late Games
Bengals at Raiders, Cowboys at Chiefs, Cardinals at Seahawks, Steelers at Chargers, Giants at Buccaneers

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 11 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Dec. 11

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)