NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 19, 2020

Cleveland Browns (12-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (14-2)
Line: Chiefs by 10. Total: 56.
Sunday, Jan. 17, 3:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Browns.

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If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started seven years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Tom Brady, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I had plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

Emmitt on the Brink Season 13 is complete! Emmitt and his bastard son, Emmitt Snow Jr., battle the Giant Bear in an attempt to put an end to the pandemic.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called the Return of No Space Man.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: I was hopeful to get some news on Mitchell Schwartz pertaining to his availability for this game. I’ve found nothing, so it’s difficult to handicap this matchup until we know if he’s going to play or not. Schwartz has been absent since Week 7, which is when Kansas City’s “troubles” began. I put that word in quotations because the Chiefs have won every single game their starters have played.

Winning and covering are different matters, however. Patrick Mahomes has won 10 straight games, but he has failed to cover most of them. In fact, the Chiefs have barely squeaked by the Panthers, Raiders, Broncos, Dolphins and Falcons – five teams that all missed the playoffs. All of those victories were by one score. That won’t cut it in this game with this being a double-digit line.

The “trouble” for the Chiefs has been their pass protection. Mahomes doesn’t have as much time in the pocket as he’s accustom to, which is causing enough drives to stall to allow the opposition to hang around. Mahomes will be able to take advantage of some nice matchups, particularly with Travis Kelce, but the Browns will put lots of pressure on him if Schartz isn’t available.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: The Browns should be able to keep up on the scoreboard if Schwartz is sidelined again. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt will be able to run on the Chiefs. Cleveland has one of the top offensive lines in the NFL, and it’ll welcome back Joel Bitonio from a minor illness. He and the rest of the front will blast open huge lanes for the two talented backs.

The strong rushing attack will give Baker Mayfield plenty of time in the pocket. The Chiefs have some excellent defensive linemen, including Chris Jones and Frank Clark, but with the Browns’ offensive line fully intact, the Kansas City pass rush shouldn’t be much of an issue.

Mayfield will be able to exploit a liability versus the linebackers by connecting to Austin Hooper. Kansas City has some talented cornerbacks, so the Browns don’t have positive matchups everywhere on this side of the ball.

RECAP: I hate to do it, but I’m slapping on a TBA tag on this pick. I think this game is extremely difficult to handicap without knowing Schwartz’s status. If Schwartz returns, I think the Chiefs will cover. There won’t be any stopping Mahomes, especially with Andy Reid having an extra week to prepare.

Conversely, if Schwartz is sidelined again, enough Kansas City drives will stall, allowing the Browns to sneak within this large spread. I don’t think Cleveland will win, but this game will be decided by 3-7 points if the Chiefs are missing multiple offensive linemen.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Jack Conklin missed Wednesday’s practice, but the rest of Cleveland’s offensive line, as well as two of their top cornerbacks, will be back on the field. The big injury question mark is Mitchell Schwartz. Sorry, Chiefs fans, but he has been ruled out for Sunday’s game. That will definitely put me on the Browns for a few units.

SATURDAY NOTES: Jack Conklin and B.J. Goodson both practiced just one time all week, so they both could be sidelined. I don’t think I’d move off three units if they were both out, as long as this line remained at +10 or higher.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s some major sharp money on the Browns, perhaps because Conklin and Goodson will both play. This line has dropped to +8 in most sportsbooks. Given the injury news and sharp betting, I’d bet the Browns for four units if you can still get them at +10 somewhere. At this new number, this is still a three-unit play. The best line is +8 -105 at Bovada.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (12-5) at New Orleans Saints (13-4)
Line: Saints by 2.5. Total: 52.
Sunday, Jan. 17, 6:40 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Dan Fouts and Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Louisiana, where tonight, the New Orleans Saints take on the New Orleans Buccaneers. Guys, the NFL is trying something new this week. They saw they had success on Nickelodeon last week, so they’re doing the primetime game in Nickelodeon! So, instead of the normal group of guys I talk to, some of them have been replaced with the Nickelodeon crew! Guys, it’s great that you’re with me, especially with Charles Davis not being here!

Nate Burleson: You saying Charles Davis is not here is like when your teacher does roll call, and that one kid in class is absent. That’s what Charles Davis not being here is like.

Reilly: Wow, thanks for the analogy! I had no idea what that was like until you explained it to me. Now, let’s hear from our award-winning female football analyst!

Tara Muller: I love football! Football is so much fun! It’s great that we’re being televised on Nickelodeon tonight! Being on Nickelodeon makes it so much more fun than it already was!

Reilly: Wow, that was great announcing, you guys! But we also have another female football analyst here tonight, too! Gabrielle, what do you think about football?

Gabrielle Nevaeh Green: My favorite part about football is when they kick the ball into the air! Like wow, it goes so high!

Reilly: Yes, so smart! Such smart football analysts! Psst, hey Tolly, I think I found another woman for you to kidnap and enslave.

Tollefson: Shut up, Kevin, I don’t kidnap and enslave women under the age of 18. I have standards, you know!

Reilly: Sorry about that, Tolly. I forgot that you’re a good guy because you only kidnap and enslave women over 18.

Nate Burleson: What you just heard, kids, is a guy making sure he doesn’t go to prison. And going to prison is like going to detention in school. If you do something wrong, you go to detention. But if you do something wrong outside of school, you go to prison.

Reilly: Thanks for explaining everything, Nate. I really appreciate it because I would’ve been confused otherwise. Your usual anchor is so lucky.

Noah Eagle: Lucky? I had my daddy Ian Eagle pay for Nate Burleson to be my sidekick and friend!

Reilly: Really? Maybe my New Daddy will pay for Nate Burleson, too! New Daddy, can you buy me Nate Burleson to be my friend for my birthday?

Cutler: Nah, I don’t like you that much.

Reilly: NEWW DAAAADDDYYYY!!!!!

Noah Eagle: While the other anchor cries, let’s hear from sideline reporter Lex Lumpkin! Lex, what do you think of Kevin Reilly?

Lex Lumpkin: Kev-oon Ray-uh-lay???

Noah Eagle: It looks like Lex Lumpkin is confused. Gabrielle, what do you think of Kevin Reilly?

Gabrielle Nevaeh Green: It’s like so crazy in here! The atmosphere is so crazy! And Kevin Reilly is so crazy!

Reilly: Crazy!? I’m not crazy! You’re crazy, a**hole!

Nate Burleson: You see what Kevin Reilly did there, kids? What he did was like when you’re at recess, and you say something mean to another kid, and then that kid goes, “I know you are, but what am I?” That was the same lame response you heard from Kevin Reilly.

Reilly: What!? New Daddy, I don’t want a Nate Burleson anymore!!!

Noah Eagle: Hey, I’m the only one with a rich daddy here, pal. Your daddy doesn’t like you like mine does. Mine got me this job. What has your daddy done for you?

Reilly: New Daddy, tell them! Tell them that you love me!

Cutler: Meh.

Noah Eagle: Now, it’s time to give out the NVA Award. That stands for Nickelodeon Valuable Analyst! Let’s see whom everyone voted for. It’s- I can’t believe it. It’s Kevin Reilly! He was voted as NVA!

Nate Burleson: Kids, this is like when you get a participation trophy at a game. Everyone’s feeling sorry for you, so they give you an award to make you feel better. Do you feel better, Kevin?

Reilly: F**K YOU! EVERYONE VOTED FOR ME TO BE NVA BECAUSE THEY KNOW I’M THE BEST ANALYST THERE IS, AND YOU’RE ALL A BUNCH OF LOSERS! I CAN’T WAIT TO BE BACK WITH MY REGUALR CREW NEXT WEEK! F**K ALL OF YOU, INCLUDING YOU, LEX LUMPKIN! IT’S PRONOUNCED KEH-VIN RI-UH-LEE, YOU DOUCHE!!! We’ll be back after this!

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Tom Brady has lost twice to the Saints this year. In those games, Brady threw five interceptions compared to just two touchdowns. In the Week 9 battle, he was just 22-of-38 for 209 yards and three picks. It was a truly abysmal performance.

There’s one reason why Brady might be better this time: Antonio Brown. The talented receiver wasn’t available in the first matchup, and he played his initial game with the Buccaneers in that second loss to New Orleans. He wasn’t fully integrated into the offense then, so having him play a larger role will be imperative because Marshon Lattimore routinely locks down Mike Evans. Thus, it’ll be up to Brown and Chris Godwin to help Brady prevail.

Still, this will be a difficult task for Brady. The Saints have a terrific defense. They’re able to generate great pressure with their defensive line, which will make Brady uncomfortable in the pocket.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: It wasn’t clear how the returning Saints would perform last week, especially against a talented Chicago defense. Michael Thomas didn’t show much rust, though Alvin Kamara wasn’t fully involved in the passing game like I thought he would be. Nevertheless, it was nice for New Orleans to have a bye week against the Bears ahead of this matchup.

Drew Brees and his weapons will be much better against the Buccaneers. Tampa’s secondary has some major problems, as it couldn’t even contain Taylor Heinicke last week. If the Buccaneers couldn’t cover Cam Sims, how will they deal with Michael Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders and the emerging Deonte Harris?

Kamara will at least be stymied on the ground. The Buccaneers have the top ground defense in the NFL, and they’ve been able to limit Kamara to a grand total 56 rushing yards on 21 carries in two games. However, he was able to catch 10 passes in those contests, so he’ll be able to do some damage as a receiver out of the backfield.

RECAP: You’re going to hear people say, “It’s difficult to beat a team three times in a season.” I already heard Tony Dungy state this during an NBC telecast last weekend. This, however, is incorrect. Since 2002, teams are 5-2 in a third matchup against an opponent they swept during the regular season. The spread record is 3-4, but this line is close enough to a pick ’em that the number shouldn’t play a factor unless the Saints win by a field goal.

I expect New Orleans to prevail. This is a rough matchup for the Buccaneers because the Saints can pressure Brady with just four players, while their offense can score easily against Tampa’s troubled secondary.

Despite this, there’s lots of public action on the Buccaneers. I like fading publicly backed underdogs, so I may have a small wager on the Saints.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Alex Cappa missed Wednesday’s practice, which is bad news for the Buccaneers. The Saints already had a major advantage in the trenches, so Cappa’s absence would be huge. The public doesn’t care, as they’ve been betting the Buccaneers.

SATURDAY NOTES: Alex Cappa has been ruled out for the rest of the playoffs, so that is definitely a blow for Tampa’s chances. The Saints will have a nice advantage in the trenches.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m shocked about this, but the sharps are betting the Buccaneers heavily. They moved the line across three, which is a huge deal. I’m not quite sure why they like Tampa Bay, but I’m still on the Saints for two units. The best line is -2.5 -108 at Bookmaker.