NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 19, 2020

Los Angeles Rams (11-6) at Green Bay Packers (13-3)
Line: Packers by 6.5. Total: 45.5.
Saturday, Jan. 16, 4:35 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

WEEK 18 RECAP: The first round of the playoffs was a disaster, and it was also the strangest set of results I’ve ever seen. We were hurt by a Colts back-door cover, which was fine until we were somehow beaten by a quarterback with a broken thumb. The following day, the Titans blew a 10-0 lead and failed to cover despite the game being horribly mispriced. And finally, the Steelers decided that they could easily beat the coach-less Browns, so they didn’t bother to try hard. The Browns, missing a coach and many starters, won in a blowout. The result of this was 1-5 (-$1,430).

My Week 18 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

By the way, if you want to support this site, check out my new book!



In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: The Packers were by far my favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl ahead of Week 17. That was because they were able to get Corey Linsley back from injury. We saw Green Bay dominate the Titans with a mostly intact offensive line. I expected this sort of play to continue for them heading into the playoffs.

Unfortunately, David Bakhtiari was lost for the year with a torn ACL. This was a horrendous turn of events, as Green Bay will now have to traverse the playoffs without two offensive linemen. The Packers could still win the Super Bowl, but it’ll be much more difficult for them to do so, especially in matchups like this one. The Rams, of course, have the best defensive line in the NFL. Assuming Aaron Donald plays, Los Angeles will dominate in the trenches and make things very difficult for Aaron Rodgers.

Meanwhile, the Rams have some elite defensive backs to shut down Rodgers’ weapons. Jalen Ramsey being on Davante Adams will be an intriguing matchup. Adams, like D.K. Metcalf last week, will win some of the battles, but he won’t be open on most occasions, so Rodgers will have to look elsewhere. This is where the Packers will regret not spending their first-round pick on a receiver like Chase Claypool, Michael Pittman or Tee Higgins.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: If the Rams had a healthy quarterback, they’d have a good chance to win this game. However, it’s unclear if either quarterback will be able to play. John Wolford – or Wolflord, if you prefer – suffered a neck injury in the opening quarter last week, while Jared Goff is still dealing with his broken thumb. Goff, continuing to be the luckiest quarterback in the NFL, was very fortunate to beat the Seahawks.

Either quarterback will have his work cut out for him in this matchup, especially if the injured Cooper Kupp isn’t available. Kupp’s potential absence will make things difficult for the Rams to move the chains because Jaire Alexander will erase Robert Woods. Green Bay has an excellent pass defense that will limit Los Angeles’ aerial attack.

That said, Cam Akers could have success on the ground. The Packers have been vulnerable to rushing attacks, and Akers was terrific in last week’s victory over the Seahawks.

RECAP: This is a difficult game to handicap. This is a high spread, so with the Packers being down two offensive linemen, they’re definitely vulnerable to a back-door cover because they won’t be able to score as much as they normally would. If the Rams were healthier, I’d pick them to cover.

However, there are two major things going against the visitor. First, the Rams have a pair of injured quarterbacks, and backing an injured signal-caller is seldom a profitable idea, despite what happened last week. Second, it’s going to be windy and in the mid-20s in Lambeau this Saturday evening. The Rams, of course, are a warm-weather dome team, so these conditions will be very difficult for them.

Our Week 19 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Packers picked up Jared Veldheer to replace David Bakhtiari, but he won’t be eligible to play until the NFC Championship. That’s some bad news for the Packers. Here’s some good news for the Rams: Not only did Aaron Donald say that he feels great; Jared Goff practiced fully on Wednesday. Cooper Kupp missed practice, but I’m a bit more optimistic about the Rams today. I’m still no units on the Packers though.

SATURDAY NOTES: More good news for the Rams: This game won’t be as cold as initially anticipated. It’ll be in the low-to-mid 30s instead of the mid 20s, which is important for a warm-weather dome team. More bad news for the Rams: Cooper Kupp and David Edwards failed to practice all week, so they both could be out. I’m still very torn on this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps were silent on this game all week, but they pounced on the Packers at the very end. I think this is because of all the Rams’ injuries. The Rams won’t have Cooper Kupp, David Edwards and some role players on defense. Plus, don’t forget about Jared Goff’s potentially problematic thumb. This line has risen to -7 everywhere. I’m still not interested in betting this game because of the Packers’ offensive line issues, but if you want to bet Green Bay, -6.5 -120 at Bookmaker is the best line.

Baltimore Ravens (12-5) at Buffalo Bills (14-3)
Line: Bills by 2.5. Total: 50.
Saturday, Jan. 16, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 44-40-2 last season and 33-39 heading into Week 17.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Buccaneers -8.5

Bills -6.5

Saints -10

Steelers -6

The heaviest-bet sides were 1-3 last week, so it was yet another winning week for the books.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

None

There are no heavily bet sides this week! Everything is less than 65-percent action. Perhaps that’ll change later in the week.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. We got a bit this week:



Ah, the obligatory ZOMG COROONAVIRUS comment. I don’t understand why people are making such a big deal about it. Then again, at least he’s not the Most Cowardly Man on the Planet.

Here’s an actual e-mail I found:



This guy always shows up when I’m doing poorly. Unsurprisingly, he didn’t even congratulate me on my Supercontest finish. What a dick!

BUFFALO OFFENSE: Josh Allen has shown incredible development from his second to his third year, but this will be the ultimate test. If he can defeat the Ravens with a strong performance, we’ll know for sure that he has entered the top tier of quarterbacks.

I say this because Allen struggled in this matchup last year. In a 24-17 loss to the Ravens at home, Allen was just 17-of-39 for 146 yards and a touchdown. Here’s how I described his performance:

Allen simply had no hope with all of the pressure he was constantly seeing, and on the occasions in which he had time in the pocket, he developed a habit of overthrowing his intended receivers deep downfield. Allen had three deep overthrows in the first quarter alone, though it’s worth noting that the heavy winds may have had something to do with it because one of Allen’s attempted bombs going the other way in the second quarter was woefully underthrown.



Assuming there aren’t heavy winds in the forecast, I expect Allen to have a stronger performance. Not only has he gotten better; his supporting cast has improved as well. He didn’t have Stefon Diggs at his disposal last year. Diggs should have a solid performance, as he might mirror what A.J. Brown accomplished last week. The Ravens have some terrific defensive backs, but Allen has so many weapons at his disposal. Rather than heaving balls to a falling Khalif Raymond like Ryan Tannehill was doing, Allen will be targeting Diggs, John Brown, Cole Beasley, Gabriel Davis, Devin Singeltary and Dawson Knox.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Lamar Jackson didn’t play well in that matchup either. He completed 16-of-25 passes and threw for three touchdowns, but he accumulated 145 passing yards and 40 rushing yards, and he threw an interception. Most of his production came on a 61-yard touchdown to Hayden Hurst in busted coverage. Jackson was pedestrian otherwise.

The Bills had a great game plan for Jackson, and I don’t see why that would change this time. If they can limit Jackson to 40 rushing yards again, they should be able to clamp down on Baltimore’s offense. Remember, the Ravens had a much better offensive line last year when Ronnie Stanley was healthy and Marshal Yanda was still on the roster. Buffalo should be able to win in the trenches.

There is one weakness Jackson should be able to exploit, however. The Bills have been weak to tight ends all year, so Mark Andrews figures to have a big game. I wouldn’t count on Marquise Brown replicating what he did last week though.

RECAP: I don’t agree with the pricing on this game. The Bills are the better team, yet they’re not even -3 at home. My personal line says Buffalo should be -4.5, so we’re getting a ton of value with the host.

The question is, why is this line so incorrect? Well, all I’ve heard from pundits is, “The Ravens are on fire” and “the Ravens have gotten their act together.” Have they? All they did late in the year was clobber terrible teams like the Jaguars, Giants and Bengals. They also snuck by the Browns on Monday night and beat the Titans last week, but those teams are just above average. The last time the Ravens played a team of Buffalo’s caliber, they lost to a much healthier Steeler squad in Week 8. Before that, they got blown out against the Chiefs at home.

Line value is my only angle for betting this game, but I think it’s a good one. I’ll likely have two units on the Bills.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s some sharp money coming in on the Bills now, which doesn’t surprise me. They seem like the right side. The one injury of note is that Matthew Judon missed both days of practice thus far with an illness. He could still play, but his absence would be a nice boost for Josh Allen.

SATURDAY NOTES: Matthew Judon will play. In fact, there are no injury question marks for either side. I still like the Bills for a couple of units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps were mixed on this game. They were betting the Ravens early in the week, and there was other pro money on Buffalo leading up to today. I still think this line is mispriced and that the Bills should be favored by -4.5. Luckily, we’re still getting a number less than a field goal. The best spread is -2.5 -113 at Bookmaker. This remains a two-unit play for me.