San Francisco 49ers (4-0) at Los Angeles Rams (3-2) Line: Rams by 3. Total: 50.5. Sunday, Oct. 13, 4:05 PM
The Matchup. Edge: None.
Video of the Week: I don't like late-night talk shows, but this interview with Dennis Rodman is a must-see:
I almost died at the host's expression when Rodman said he wasn't sure if there was a North Korea.
LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: There's so much attention on Jared Goff pertaining to the Rams' struggles this year. Goff has not played nearly as well in previous years, but it's more important to determine why this is happening. ESPN and the NFL Network will never delve into it, but those of you who have been reading this Web site know exactly why Goff has been a big disappointment.
The answer to all of you new readers is the Rams' offensive line. It's been an absolute mess this year. The Rams lost two starting offensive linemen in free agency, while long-time left tackle Andrew Whitworth is finally beginning to show his age. The Rams didn't have a huge challenge versus Seattle's middling pass rush, but the 49ers can certainly bring the heat. Nick Bosa, Dee Ford and DeForest Buckner are all tremendous, and they're going to create some major havoc for Goff, who could be forced into several turnovers like Baker Mayfield was Monday night.
The 49ers also thrive at stopping the run and covering opposing receivers. They're a bit weak to the slot, so Cooper Kupp could have a big game, but the rest of the Rams' receiving corps should be shut down, especially if Brandin Cooks is out with a concussion.
SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The 49ers have overtaken the Rams as the best team in the NFC West for a couple of reasons, one of which is the play of their own offensive line. They block extremely well despite Joe Staley being injured. The Rams, of course, have their stalwart front, but I trust San Francisco's front to open running lanes for Matt Breida and Tevin Coleman, and to give Jimmy Garoppolo enough time to find his targets.
Speaking of Garoppolo's targets, the Rams have a huge liability on one side of the field, as Aqib Talib looks like he's 45 years old all of a sudden. Meanwhile, the Rams are not very good at defending tight ends, so George Kittle could have his ceiling game.
The one question mark regarding the 49ers is Garoppolo himself. He has great talent, but his mechanics are not very good right now. He threw off his back foot on too many occasions Monday night, so that could get him into trouble.
RECAP: I love the 49ers in this game, save for one major caveat. Let's discuss why I love them first.
The 49ers are one of the best teams in the NFL because of their great offensive line and defense. The Rams, conversely, don't block well and have major problems defensively. The 49ers are unquestionably better than the Rams, so this spread shouldn't be above -3. I made this line Los Angeles -1. The fact that this line is -3.5/-4 is absurd.
The reason why this spread is so high is because the public doesn't understand how good the 49ers are and how very fortunate the Rams are to even be 3-2 right now. They had some extremely lucky wins to start the year; had they battled a healthy Cam Newton and Drew Brees, they'd be 2-3 or maybe even 1-4 right now. If that were the case, what would this spread be? The 49ers might even be favored!
Also, there are likely to be way more 49er fans than Ram supporters in the stadium. The rich celebrities in Los Angeles don't really care about football, while all of the countless homeless they have in that garbage dump of a second-world city can't afford tickets. San Francisco fans, eager to cheer on their undefeated team, will flock down to Los Angeles and invade the Coliseum. What's nice is that they are used to all of the poop and needles from their own city, so they won't be surprised by what they see in Los Angeles.
All of this makes me want to bet very heavily on the 49ers. However, here's what I'm worried about: Sean McVay. The Rams' head coach is one of the best in the business, and he's getting extra time to prepare for this game. It's quite possible that he and Wade Phillips make some great adjustments to improve. I don't know what they can possibly do to fix the horrible blocking and poor coverage, but these are two of the smartest coaches in the NFL, so they'll have the best game plan possible for the 49ers, who will be operating on a short work week.
Still, despite this, I like the 49ers enough to bet one or two units on them.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I'm moving off the 49ers completely because right tackle Mike McGlinchey is out. San Francisco will be missing both tackles, which is a huge deal against the Rams' front.
SATURDAY NOTES: It still sucks that the 49ers will be missing both of their tackles. Now, George Kittle may not play either. What first seemed like a promising play on the 49ers now looks like a possible switch to the Rams.
SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: There's some concern that George Kittle won't be able to finish this game. I'm not betting this game regardless.
FINAL THOUGHTS: I'm still not betting this game. The sharps haven't touched this number either.
The Motivation. Edge: 49ers.
The Rams will be playing a "road game" at home.
ARIZONA OFFENSE: The Falcons' defense is so bad that the Texans scored 53 points against them last week, but that's not all. Even the Titans went up and down the field against them with ease the prior Sunday. Atlanta's stop unit is a mess without Keanu Neal. It can't cover anyone, surrendering huge games to Will Fuller and A.J. Brown the previous two weeks.
Kyler Murray shouldn't have an issue throwing on the Falcons. Murray's primary problem in his losses has been poor pass protection from his pedestrian offensive line, but the Falcons have no pass rush to speak of. Like last week, Murray will have time in the pocket to dissect a horrid secondary.
The Falcons are also very weak to the run, so David Johnson figures to have a nice performance as both a rusher and a receiver out of the backfield.
ATLANTA OFFENSE: Matt Ryan has thrown for at least 300 yards in every game this year, and he's on pace to accumulate about 5,300 yards this season. It's an absurd number, yet Ryan isn't playing very well; he has nearly as many turnovers (8) as touchdowns (11).
Ryan is simply registering these great numbers as a byproduct of garbage time. The Falcons have fallen far behind in all but one game this year, resulting in Ryan's massive passing totals. Ryan hasn't been as effective when games are close in the opening half because he's not getting any protection from his poor offensive line. The Cardinals have a putrid defense, but the one thing they do well is generate pressure via Chandler Jones and Terrell Suggs. Jones and Suggs will be able to place heavy heat on Ryan.
Another issue for the Falcons is that they can't establish the run at all. The Cardinals actually did a good job on Joe Mixon last week after a poor first drive, so Devonta Freeman will be limited on the ground.
RECAP: When I first saw this spread, I thought there would be major action on the Cardinals. How could the truly abysmal Falcons possibly be favored by slightly less than a field goal on the road? It made no sense.
And yet, the public is all over Atlanta! What!? Has everyone been drugged? Has no one watched a single football game this year? The Falcons are an abomination. They suck at blocking, getting to the quarterback, stopping the run and defending mediocre receivers. The only thing they do well is accumulate passing yards when they're down double digits!
Murray has played well this year when battling a team with no pass rush. The Falcons have none, so I expect Arizona to jump out to a sizable lead in this game, followed by the usual Ryan garbage-time fantasy points.
I'm going to be on the Cardinals, who should be favored, for three or four units. I'll increase my wager if we get a +3 for some reason.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There's still no +3, but there's an obscene amount of money on the Falcons for some strange reason.
SATURDAY NOTES: So many people love the Falcons this week, yet I don't understand why. They can't block or play defense, and now they'll be without two of their top three outside cornerbacks, as Desmond Trufant has been ruled out. David Johnson may miss this game, but that doesn't bother me one bit as long as Chase Edmonds is healthy. I'm bumping this up to five units. I'm holding out hope for +3. If an opportunity to buy up doesn't present itself, I may sell a point on Bookmaker or 5Dimes.
SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This line has jumped up to +3!!! Thanks, stupid public! I'm locking this in now.
FINAL THOUGHTS: Christian Kirk has been ruled out, but that doesn't matter to me. I can't believe we were able to get a clean +3.
Dallas Cowboys (3-2) at New York Jets (0-4) Line: Cowboys by 8. Total: 43.5. Sunday, Oct. 13, 4:25 PM
The Matchup. Edge: TBA.
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NEW YORK OFFENSE: Sam Darnold has been cleared to play in Week 6. This is a week earlier than I thought he would return, but as a fellow mono survivor, I'm glad to hear that his enlarged spleen has shrunk back to normal.
Darnold gives the Jets a chance to win this game. Luke Falk has no business being in the NFL, but Darnold is a promising, young quarterback who finished on a strong note last year. He struggled in the opener, but probably felt like absolute crap as a result of his mono and had no idea why he was so groggy and sluggish. Now that he's healthy, he'll be able to torch a Dallas defense that hasn't battled a quality quarterback all year outside of Aaron Rodgers last week, and we know how that went.
The Packers moved the chains primarily through Aaron Jones, which sounds problematic for the Cowboys because Le'Veon Bell is a far superior player. Bell has been producing somewhat well since Darnold's mono diagnosis; now, opposing defenses won't be able to stack the box against him without repercussions, so Bell will be even better going forward.
DALLAS OFFENSE: Darnold's return is just one half of a winning formula for the Jets. The other would be C.J. Mosley playing again. Mosley hasn't seen the field since exiting the season opener at the end of the third quarter. The Jets put the clamps on the Bills beforehand, yet surrendered a 17-point fourth quarter with Mosley off the field. Mosley was flying around everywhere when he was playing, so his return would be almost as impactful as Darnold's.
If Mosley plays, I'll like the Jets' chances of slowing down Ezekiel Elliott. The Cowboys might be missing two tackles, so the holes might not even be there against a strong defensive line anyway.
Tyron Smith and La'el Collins being out or limited will hinder Dallas' ability to throw the ball as well. Dak Prescott has shown that he can make mistakes versus defenses that aren't absolutely atrocious, and you can't call the Jets that if Mosley is on the field.
RECAP: This might be my top play of the week if Mosley returns. If not, I still like Jets quite a bit.
First of all, it's absurd how incorrect this spread is. I understand this line if Falk is the starting quarterback, but the Cowboys are nowhere near 11 points better than the Jets if Darnold is under center. That's absolutely ridiculous. My line is Dallas -3, while DVOA says this should be Dallas -3.5.
Second, I don't expect the Cowboys to be fully focused for this game because they have to battle the Eagles next week for first place in the division. They've seen how bad the Jets are (or were), and so they'll believe they can just walk all over them.
And finally, look at all of that public action on Dallas! More than 80 percent of the money is on the Cowboys. The sharps are betting the Jets, so I'm going to lock in three units at the moment before this spread drops even further. If Mosley ends up being active, I'm going to throw at least two more units on New York later in the week. If Mosley is set to return, and this spread remains above +7, we might be entering NFL Pick of the Month territory.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There's sad news, as C.J. Mosley will be out yet again. What's this guy's groin made out of, Scotch tape? This is ridiculous. At any rate, I'm going to stay with three units on the Jets.
SATURDAY NOTES: C.J. Mosley is out, but there's good news for the Jets in regard to the injury report. Both Cowboy tackles - Tyron Smith and La'el Collins - missed practice all week. They're both listed as questionable, but there's a good chance they'll both miss this game. If the Cowboys are dumb enough to play them with a game against the Eagles coming up, coaches should be fired. They may not be 100 percent and could be forced out of action like Collins was last week. If they're both out prior to kickoff, I'll increase my unit count to four or five.
SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: It doesn't look like the two Dallas tackles will play. I'm going to add a fourth unit right now. The best line I see is +7 -105 at Bovada.
FINAL THOUGHTS: Both Dallas tackles have, in fact, been ruled out. I love the Jets. I'm going to put a fifth unit on the Jets at the same line as above.
The Motivation. Edge: Jets.
The Cowboys play the Eagles next and probably won't take the Jets seriously.
The Spread. Edge: Jets.
WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cowboys -3.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: No Line (Darnold).
Computer Model: Cowboys -8.
DVOA Spread: Cowboys -3.5.
The Vegas. Edge: Jets.
This is free money, apparently.
Percentage of money on Dallas: 75% (18,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Jets.
The underdog is 86-58 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.
Tennessee Titans (2-3) at Denver Broncos (1-4) Line: Broncos by 1.5. Total: 41. Sunday, Oct. 13, 4:25 PM
The Matchup. Edge: None.
Emmitt on the Brink Season 12 is underway! Emmitt's Patriots prepare for Antonio Brown's undefeated Steelers. Meanwhile, some Emmitt fans are accosted while waiting for a bus.
A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week's jerks entry is called Dumb Parents, Irrelevant Pregnancy and MeUndies.
DENVER OFFENSE: I discussed how important C.J. Mosley's availability was in the previous game capsule. There's also a talented linebacker whose status is unknown entering this contest. I wouldn't say he will have as much of an impact as Mosley, but his presence will still be important for Tennessee's chances of prevailing.
That player is Cameron Wake, who was sorely missed against the Bills. The Titans didn't have as great of a pass rush without Wake, allowing Josh Allen to be very accurate. If Wake can return for this game, he'll be able to take advantage of a big liability the Broncos have at right tackle. Denver has been abysmal at that position ever since Ja'Wuan James was knocked out with an injury.
Having Wake on the field will really help the Titans, given that they're much weaker against the pass than the run. They're strong versus opposing ground attacks, so they should be able to limit Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman. Stopping Joe Flacco will depend on Wake's ability to apply pressure, given how much Malcolm Butler has struggled this season.
TENNESSEE OFFENSE: The Titans also have an issue at right tackle. Jack Conklin is a decent player, but there's no way in hell he's blocking Von Miller effectively. Marcus Mariota will surely see pressure on that side, but he at least won't have to deal with Bradley Chubb attacking from the left. Taylor Lewan is back to neutralize Chubb's backup anyhow.
Mariota should have enough time in the pocket to attack Denver's secondary. The Broncos have some stellar defensive backs like Chris Harris and Kareem Jackson, but they also have some liabilities, namely Isaac Yiadom, who is abysmal. Meanwhile, Denver's linebacking corps hasn't been the same ever since it lost Danny Trevathan years ago. The Broncos can't defend in space, which bodes well for Delanie Walker. The only other talented tight end the Broncos have battled this year was Darren Waller in Week 1, and we all saw what he accomplished.
The Titans figure to establish Derrick Henry as well. The Broncos aren't completely healthy up front, so I don't trust their ability to stop the rush. Leonard Fournette rumbled for 225 yards against Denver two weeks ago, so Henry could have similar success.
RECAP: I was hoping we'd see a Tenenssee +3 line because I'd be very interested in that. Still, +2.5 seems a tad high, as the advance spread on this game was a pick 'em. Has anything occurred in the past week that should move this line 2.5 points? I really don't think so.
Also, the Broncos will be looking ahead to battling the Chiefs in four days. They have to prepare for that game, so they could look past a Tennessee squad that would have prevailed last week if it wasn't for some major kicking woes.
I'm putting two units on the Titans, but this wager will increase if +3 appears.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread is trending down toward the Titans, which sucks because I wanted +3. Still, the Titans seem like the right side.
SATURDAY NOTES: Eww... the public is betting the Titans heavily. Yuck. Also, the Broncos might have Ja'Wuan James back... Yeah, I'm completely off this.
SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I still can't believe there's so much public money on the Titans. That made this unappealing, though I have the Titans in a teaser (see below.)
FINAL THOUGHTS: Ja'Wuan James is out, which makes me feel better about the Titans. I'm going to put a unit back on the Titans. Rather than taking the point, I'll bet the +105 moneyline at Bookmaker.
The Motivation. Edge: None.
The Broncos have to battle the Chiefs in four days. However, the Broncos are suddenly going up against public dogs.
The Spread. Edge: Titans.
WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Broncos -3.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Pick.
Computer Model: Titans -2.
DVOA Spread: Broncos -1.
The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.
Wow, there's been a ton of public money flowing in on the Titans!
Percentage of money on Tennessee: 70% (15,000 bets)
Pittsburgh Steelers (1-4) at Los Angeles Chargers (2-2) Line: Chargers by 7. Total: 42. Sunday, Oct. 13, 8:20 PM
The Matchup. Edge: Steelers.
I'm going to devote this section to promoting things from myself, my friends and my readers. I wrote earlier that I'm in the process of writing my book. It's complete, and I'm having the cover designed now.
This week, I'd like to promote BughouseMaster. Long-time reader Neph Diaz offers chess and trumpet lessons on this Web site, so check that out if you have any interest in improving in those areas!
If you want me to promote something of yours, send me an e-mail, so I can take a look at it!
PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: I watched every snap Devlin Hodges took last week twice. My impression of him was that he was just OK. Hodges showed some nice accuracy, but he had a tendency of drifting back too deep in the pocket. He also got away with one absolutely horrid throw. He went back about 10 yards for some reason, then floated a weak pass late across his body. The pass was picked by Earl Thomas, but a penalty negated the turnover. However, Hodges was accurate on other occasions and did a good job of moving the chains once he replaced Mason Rudolph.
If Hodges were surrounded by mediocre talent, he would be major fade material. However, the Steelers have a stellar offensive line that will protect Hodges well. Hodges, with a full week of preparation, will have opportunities to find his receivers against an injury-ravaged secondary.
The Steelers will be able to take advantage of the Chargers' other problems as well. The Chargers struggle against the run, so James Conner will have a strong outing. Meanwhile, the Charger linebackers are also slow, which means getting Conner and Jaylen Samuels into space will result in some nice gains.
SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: Hodges will also be able to rely on a strong defense to keep him in the game. I especially like T.J. Watt and Bud Dupree against the Chargers' abysmal tackles. They should be able to put heavy heat on Philip Rivers, who will once again have to resort to throwing shorter routes.
The Steelers' secondary has improved markedly ever since they traded for Minkah Fitzpatrick, so these shorter routes won't really go anywhere. Perhaps the Chargers' best chance of moving the chains will be via Austin Ekeler, who continues to be a dynamic threat as a pass-catcher out of the backfield.
Ekler has ceded the rushing workload to Melvin Gordon, but the talented back doesn't appear to be fully in shape yet. Either way, I can't see him finding much running room against a stellar Pittsburgh front.
RECAP: This spread makes absolutely no sense to me. The Chargers are favored by nearly a touchdown, yet I think this spread should be a pick 'em. If that sounds wrong to you, allow me to defer to the DVOA, which says this line should be San Angeles -1.5.
Excluding quarterback, can you name one position in which the Chargers are definitively better than the Steelers? Maybe running back, but Gordon's not in shape. Maybe edge rusher, but Melvin Ingram isn't healthy. Maybe wide receiver, but JuJu Smith-Schuster, while inferior to Keenan Allen, is an excellent player. There are so many areas in which Pittsburgh is overwhelmingly superior compared to the Chargers. The teams' offensive lines, defensive lines, linebacking corps and safeties (with Derwin James out) aren't even close.
Also factoring into my spread calculation is that the Chargers only get one point for their home-field "advantage." This "advantage" might actually be a disadvantage in this instance because Steeler fans are going to invade this stadium. My estimation is that the crowd will be 80-percent full of Steeler fans, so this will be like a road game for the Chargers. They'll once again have to use silent counts and whatnot. It's going to be horrible for them.
Oh, and by the way, the public is betting the Chargers! Nearly 70 percent of the action is on the host. I guess that's a blind fade of Hodges, but that just seems stupid to me.
I'm betting five units on the Steelers, and I may lock this in if we get a clean +7.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps are betting the Steelers, so most +7s are gone. However, Bovada has +7 -120 available. There's also a +7 -125 at 5Dimes. I'm going to lock in the former for four units. The Steelers are the better team - especially in the wake of the Mike Pouncey loss - and we're getting a touchdown, which seems insane. However, five units would mean that I'd be risking six units (at -120 juice), so I'm going to wager four units on Pittsburgh.
SATURDAY NOTES: I still don't believe this spread. The public has eased off the Chargers a bit, but the sharps still bet the Steelers at +7. The line is down to +6.5, which isn't appealing, but is still worth a high play.
SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This spread has fallen to +6, as the sharps continue to pound the Steelers.
FINAL THOUGHTS: Let's hope a great day ends well! I still love the Steelers. I bet them for four units at +7 -120, but I'd still like considerably (3 units) at +6 even though the sharps haven't bet them at that number. If you have access to Bovada, you can get +6.5 -115. It's worth paying an extra five cents on the dollar for six.
The Motivation. Edge: Steelers.
The Chargers will have to play in front of mostly Steeler fans at home.
The Spread. Edge: Steelers.
WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Pick.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Chargers -5.5.
Computer Model: Chargers -7.
DVOA Spread: Chargers -1.5.
The Vegas. Edge: Steelers.
Lots of money on the Chargers.
Percentage of money on San Angeles: 65% (10,000 bets)
Detroit Lions (2-1-1) at Green Bay Packers (4-1) Line: Packers by 4. Total: 45. Monday, Oct. 14, 8:15 PM
The Matchup. Edge: None.
This week on ESPN, we're going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Dan Fouts and Jay Cutler. Here's what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:
Reilly: Welcome to the city of Green Bay, home of the Green Bay Packers! Tonight, the Detroit Tigers play the Green Bay Packers. Guys, I have finally figured out a way to destroy Herm Edwards and Charles Davis. I created my plan when I was writing in my diary last night.
Emmitt: Benny, I real allergic to diary. I go to doctor because every time I eat milk or other diary food, my stomach get debacled. My doctor telled me that I am lacrosse intolaggle. This real upset myselves.
Reilly: No, Emmitt, I'm talking about my diary; not dairy. Mother makes me keep a diary for one of my home school classes.
Tollefson: Kevin, you're a f***ing sissy. I said this last week, and now I'm saying it again. What kind of man keeps a diary? You know who keeps a diary? The women I kidnap and store in my basement. I make them keep a diary so I can rip out the pages and use them as toilet paper when I take a poop. And guess who wipes my butt with those pages? The women who write them! Buhahahaha!
Reilly: Tolly, I would like another girl except for Mother to wipe my butt after I poop, but Mother says I can't talk to girls yet, so she wipes my butt. I'm trying to convince New Daddy to change her mind. New Daddy, how is that going?
Cutler: Change My Mind? Those are funny videos.
Reilly: No, New Daddy, change HER mind! HER mind! Someone please tell New Daddy to listen to me for once!
Jason Witten: Hello, my name is Jason Witten and I just came out of retirement. When you're talking about changing minds, I think of a mind. And then I think of a brain. And a brain is like a mind. Because a mind is like a brain. And a brain is like a mind. So, when you have a mind, you have a brain. And when you have a brain, you have a mind. And then you change it. And sometimes, changing it is real good. Because you're changing the mind. And that means you're changing the brain.
Reilly: Looks like you don't have a brain! Anyway, my plan is to spread a rumor that Herm and Charles Davis have asked Ukraine to investigate me for stealing money from their government. I even placed fake phone calls from them to the FBI!
Fouts: And here's what Kevin means by FBI. When you put FBI together, you get the letters, "F", "B" and "I." That's strange because the letter "F" is between the letters "B" and "I." You would think that the FBI would rename itself BFI to follow the order of words in the dictionary!
Wolfley: DAN, WHEN I WAS IN AN ALTERNATE UNIVERSE, THE BFI WERE THE PEOPLE WHO INVESTIGATED PEOPLE WHO BROKE THE LAW. AND WHEN I SAY PEOPLE, I MEAN FOUR-TOED REMOTE CONTROLS WITH EYELIDS.
Reilly: No one cares about the stupid BFI or FBI! Mother said if the government ever comes to our house, she'll chase them away with her broom. Hear that Herm!?
Reilly: Shut up, Herm! You're in trouble, and you're going to be arrested for stealing money from Ukraine!
Charles Davis: Kevin, it's interesting that you're discussing former republics of the USSR, Kevin. Let's discuss other former republics of the USSR, Kevin. Let's begin with Armenia, Kevin. How about Azerbaijan, Kevin? What about Belarus, Kevin? What do you think about Estonia, Kevin? Let's discuss Georgia, Kevin. And not the state, Georgia, Kevin! I mean the country, Georgia, Kevin! How about it, Kevin? Can you name another former USSR republic, Kevin?
Reilly: No, f**k off!
Charles Davis: You could have named Ukraine, Kevin! Never said you couldn't name Ukraine, Kevin! You lose 50 points, Kevin!
Reilly: NO REGRETS, CHARLES DAVIS! I HAVE NO REGRETS ABOUT REPORTING YOU TO THE FBI, CHARLES DAVIS! YOU'LL BE ROTTING IN PRISON SOON, CHARLES DAVIS! We'll be back after this!
GREEN BAY OFFENSE: No Davante Adams? No problem! The Packers were missing their top receiver against the Cowboys, yet still scored 31 points on Dallas before taking their foot off the gas. They did this via Aaron Jones tough runs mixed in with effective Aaron Rodgers passes. It wasn't perfect, as Geronimo Allison dropped a couple of balls, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling screwed up some routes, but the Packers couldn't be stopped for the most part.
This will be a tougher matchup, however. The Lions have a stellar defensive line that can clamp down on the run pretty well. I still like Jones' ability to catch passes if he gets in space, given Detroit's linebacking situation, but he won't find much room on the ground.
Thus, Rodgers will need Adams to return from injury for this contest. The Lions have a stellar cornerback in Darius Slay to take one side of the field away. It'll still be a viable situation with Adams, but if Rodgers can't throw to that side at all because Slay has removed either Valdes-Scantling or Jake Kumerow from the game, it'll make things easier for the Lions' defense.
DETROIT OFFENSE: The Packers' run defense didn't get a chance to be tested in Dallas last week, as the big lead limited Ezekiel Elliott to 12 carries. If the Lions' defense can prevent the Packers from lighting up the scoreboard, they'll have a chance to expose Green Bay's greatest liability.
Kerryon Johnson may not seem like a running back who could have a huge game on the ground, but his snaps and touches have increased ever since the team correctly dumped C.J. Anderson. Johnson tallied 125 yards on 26 carries versus the Chiefs prior to the bye, so I imagine that the Lions will try their hardest to get Johnson to emulate his own Week 4 performance.
Meanwhile, Matthew Stafford has been taking more shots downfield with a new offensive coordinator. The Packers have some stellar personnel on their defense, but cornerback Kevin King is banged up, so that might be a matchup Stafford could exploit with Marvin Jones.
RECAP: I had some interest in this game when the spread was Detroit +6.5. I didn't think the line would plummet so quickly, but it did before I was able to crunch all of my numbers. This line is now in the 4.5 range, so we missed out on the key number of six, which is important. It sucks that the sharps have to ruin things for us normal folk!
I still like the Lions at +4.5, but I'm not crazy about it. DVOA says this line should be +4, while the computer model thinks +3 is the correct number. That's not much line value, but it is something at least.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread has fallen to +4, thanks to more sharp action on Detroit. I still don't plan on betting this game.
SATURDAY NOTES: Aaron Rodgers has been limited in practice with a knee. There's no way in hell he's missing this game, but it's possible he may not be 100 percent. If so, that makes the Lions appealing.
SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps continue to pound the Lions, as this line is +3.5 in several places. You can get +4 -115 at Bovada. I'm actually going to bite for a unit because there's a chance Rodgers may not be 100 percent.
FINAL THOUGHTS: I was curious to see if the sharps would continue to bet the Lions at +3.5, and the answer is yes. This spread has fallen to +3 +100 in some books, and even the +3.5s are priced up at -115 and -120. I still like the Lions for a unit at +4. I don't think I'd bet this at +3.5, but if you want to, +3.5 -110 is available at Bovada.
week 6 NFL Picks - Early Games
Giants at Patriots, Panthers at Buccaneers, Seahawks at Browns, Texans at Chiefs, Redskins at Dolphins, Eagles at Vikings, Saints at Jaguars, Bengals at Ravens
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted
whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.
Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.
Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 18, 2020): 1-5 (-$1,430)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 18, 2020): 0-2 (-$575)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 18, 2020): 0-2 (-$855)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 18, 2020): 2-3-1 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 18, 2020): $0
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-2, 50.0% (-$135)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 132-123-6, 52.6% (+$3,280) 2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 43-42-3, 50.6% (-$2,650) 2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515) 2020 Season Over-Under: 137-119-6, 53.5% ($0) 2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$375
1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%) 2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%) 2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%) 2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%) 2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%) 2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%) 2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%) 2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%) 2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585) 2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105) 2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235) 2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880) 2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335) 2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445) 2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825) 2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885) 2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215) 2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780) 2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300) 2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845) 2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%) 2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%) 2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%) 2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%) 2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%) 2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110) 2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510) 2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260) 2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180) 2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715) 2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130) 2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890) 2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820) 2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475) 2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395) 2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670) 2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%) 2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%) 2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%) 2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%) 2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%) 2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420) 2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055) 2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330) 2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790) 2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260) 2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650) 2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970) 2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120) 2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465) 2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595) 2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735) 2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%) 2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%) 2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%) 2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%) 2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%) 2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%) 2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900) 2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860) 2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195) 2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5) 2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135) 2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30) 2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340) 2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0) 2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95) 2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640) 2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225) 2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035 2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775 2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865 2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200 2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590 2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685 2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245 2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855 2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275 2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510 2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495 2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%) 2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400) 2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720) 2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640) 2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810) 2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870) 2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560) 2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900) 2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350) 2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100) 2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780) 2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040) 2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640) 2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,989-2,760-179, 52.0% (+$13,585) Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 953-858-49 (52.6%) Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 452-396-23 (53.3%) Career Over-Under: 2,459-2,413-66 (50.5%) Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-15-1 (61.1%) Career NFL Picks of the Month: 44-29-1 (60.3%)
My Team-by-Team ATS Record This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not
displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.