NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 14, 2018

NFL Picks (Preseason 2018): 11-10 (+$445)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2018): 8-7-1 (+$150)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2018): 8-7-1 (-$80)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2018): 8-8 (-$730)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2018): 8-6-1 (+$280)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2018): 10-4-1 (+$1,415)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2018): 6-7-2 (-$1,115)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2018): 7-7 (+$430)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2018): 6-8 (+$510)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2018): 5-8 (-$1,445)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2018): 5-8-1 (-$735)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2018): 5-5-3 (+$950)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2018): 7-8 (+$215)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2018): 7-9 (-$630)

NFL Picks (2018): 101-102-10 (-$340)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$3,790)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$1,055)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Dec. 9, 11:40 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 14 NFL Picks – Early Games

Denver Broncos (6-6) at San Francisco 49ers (2-10)
Line: Broncos by 3. Total: 45.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Broncos -4.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Broncos -6.
Sunday, Dec 9, 4:05 PM

The Game. Edge: Broncos.

Two years ago, on the Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts, Tom Brady was elected as the President of the United States, as it was revealed that he was the only candidate running because both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton were figments of his imagination. He followed that up by stopping Vladimir Putin from hacking the NFL. In doing so, however, Tom Brady was stuck in an evil dimension, and his evil counterpart has come into our world. No one is aware that Tom Brady is now Evil Tom Brady, which is great for Evil Tom Brady because he can begin devastating the world…

To see the story behind this one, check out the new Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts!

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: I wrote in the Giants-Redskins capsule that the gambling gods have been benevolent this year for giving us Mark Sanchez. Nick Mullens has also been a great gift. Mullens had a nice showing against the Raiders in his debut, but he has yet to cover the spread since. As I pointed out last week, Mullens had battled three of the six worst DVOA defenses in the NFL (Raiders, Giants, Buccaneers) before taking on the Seahawks, who were 11th heading into last week.

The Broncos are third. They just stomped all over Jeff Driskel, and they won’t have a problem with Mullens and his extremely limited arm strength. Mullens has some advantages – Denver’s linebackers can be beaten by tight ends and pass-catching running backs – so George Kittle and Jeff Wilson should have solid performances. However, it’ll be difficult for the 49ers to sustain consistent drives.

It’s worth noting that the Broncos lost a couple of key players to injury last week. Top cornerback Chris Harris is out, while Derek Wolfe is “day to day.” Harris’ absence will be painful in the future, but I don’t think it’ll matter much in this matchup.

DENVER OFFENSE: The 49ers’ defense isn’t as bad as its offense, but it’s still in poor shape. Losing top linebacker Reuben Foster has hurt a back seven that’s devoid of talent outside of Richard Sherman.

Case Keenum isn’t throwing the ball very often, but he could have success doing so against the 49ers. Sherman will take one of his receivers away, but Keenum will be able to connect with the other – presumably, Emmanuel Sanders – with a good amount of success, given that San Francisco has a very difficult time covering.

The 49ers are marginally better against the run, but we just saw Rashaad Penny break free for a long burst against them last week. Penny and Chris Carson combined for 134 yards on 20 carries, thanks to Foster’s absence. Phillip Lindsay is better than both backs, as he’s looking like the next Warrick Dunn. Lindsay should have a big game as Denver rolls easily.

RECAP: I bet four units against Sanchez, so let’s go with four units against Mullens! I hate that there’s so much money on the Broncos, but the fact of the matter is that crappy quarterbacks have a difficult time covering the spread in today’s NFL, due to a lack of practice time. This is the toughest defense Mullens will have battled thus far in his career, and it’s not going to end well for him.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Emmanuel Sanders is out for the year with a torn Achilles, and that sucks. However, the spread has fallen, falling past a third-tier key number of -3.5. I still love Denver, given the reduced number. Things may look bleak for them until you recall that the Cardinals won in San Francisco by double digits. The Broncos will be fine, at least in this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: Emmanuel Sanders’ injury not only dropped the spread; it took the public off betting Denver heavily. That’s music to my ears, as the Broncos’ defense should have its way against Nick Mullens. You can get Denver at -3 -125 at 5Dimes. It’s worth buying three at that juice.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The juice has gone down to -3 -115 at BetUS. I’m going to lock it in now because I don’t want to risk losing it.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I didn’t need to lock -3 -115 in because this spread is -3 -110 everywhere now. I still love the Broncos despite the sharp action on the 49ers, as this game might just look like the Giants-Redskins blowout (horrible home team playing with terrible quarterback.)

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.

A good chunk of the action is on the Broncos.

Percentage of money on Denver: 65% (21,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Broncos -6.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 63 degrees. Light wind.

Week 14 NFL Pick: Broncos 24, 49ers 10
Broncos -3 -115 (4 Units) – BetUS — Incorrect; -$460
Under 45 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
49ers 20, Broncos 14

Cincinnati Bengals (5-7) at Los Angeles Chargers (9-3)
Line: Chargers by 16. Total: 48.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chargers -15.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Chargers -12.
Sunday, Dec 9, 4:05 PM

The Game. Edge: Chargers.

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CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Mark Sanchez, Nick Mullens AND Jeff Driskel? Whatever did we do to deserve this? Can someone begin construction of a statue right now to appease the gambling gods because this harvest is plentiful.

Driskel is terrible. He has a nice arm and plus mobility, but he doesn’t know how to play quarterback in the NFL. His accuracy sucks and he has zero field vision. He just throws passes up for grabs, hoping that one of his teammates will come down with it. One of his teammates, by the way, will not be A.J. Green, who is out for the season.

Making matters worse for Driskel is the status of the offensive line. We’ll see if Cordy Glenn returns this week, but if not, Cincinnati will be using its second and fifth tackles to block Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa. That’s not good. Meanwhile, the Bengals might be able to run the ball against the Chargers’ middling ground defense, but that won’t happen if they’re way behind.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: So, that begs the question: Will the Chargers score enough points to keep Mixon off the field? That depends on one thing, which I’ll get to in a bit, but this matchup certainly seems to favor the Chargers on paper.

The Bengals have an atrocious defense that sucks against both the run and the pass. I expect them to be better against the latter, thanks to Nick Vigil’s return from injury. The Bengals haven’t been able to cover the middle of the field since losing Vigil early against the Steelers, so I’m not sure this is an area Philip Rivers will be able to attack successfully. Fortunately for Rivers, he’ll be able to beat Cincinnati’s poor cornerbacks with his talented group of receivers.

Meanwhile, the Chargers figure to run the ball successfully down Cincinnati’s throat. The Bengals are even worse against the rush than they are versus the pass, as Vontaze Burfict is either injured or lethargic right now. Melvin Gordon will have a big game if he plays, but I suspect he’ll be rested with a game coming up against the Chiefs in four days. If so, rookie Justin Jackson could be a viable replacement. Jackson looked good against the Steelers and drew the praise from Rivers during a post-game interview.

RECAP: I mentioned earlier that there’s one thing that could derail the Chargers’ efforts in this contest. That would be the next game, which is against the Chiefs in just four days. With barely any time to prepare after that affair, I imagine that the Charger coaches are already getting ready for Kansas City. I highly doubt there’s much game planning involved for Cincinnati.

This is extremely unfortunate. I’d love to bet heavily against Driskel again, but I just can’t do it. The Chargers will likely be sleepwalking through this game, much like they did versus the C.J. Beathard-led 49ers earlier in the season. They barely won that game, and I think there’s a chance this contest could follow a similar trajectory. Both the 49ers with Beathard and Bengals with Driskel are equally terrible, and yet the Chargers almost lost to San Francisco.

I imagine this will be a 10-point game where the Chargers could cover at the end, but may not because of some sloppiness. I’m still going to pick them because I don’t want to side with Driskel, but I will not be betting this game. Sorry, gambling gods!

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Chargers probably won’t have Melvin Gordon, but the Bengals have a bunch of important players on the injury report right now, including Vontaze Burfict (concussion), Cordy Glenn (back) and Dre Kirkpatrick (ankle). Oh, and A.J. Green is out, too. The Chargers will be flat, but I don’t see how the Bengals can function at the moment.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Chargers won’t have Melvin Gordon available, but that’s nothing compared to the injuries the Bengals are facing. In addition to the obvious – Andy Dalton, A.J. Green – Cincinnati won’t have left tackle Cordy Glenn, linebacker Vontaze Burfict and cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick. The Bengals won’t pass protect well for horrible quarterback Jeff Driskel, and they won’t be able to stop the run without Burfict. I’m now considering a wager on the Chargers despite the fact that they have to play Thursday.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The public continues to pound the Chargers with no wagers on the Bengals from the sharps. This spread could approach -17 by kickoff if the pros don’t bet Cincinnati at all.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread has risen to -16 or -16.5, depending on where you’re looking. As expected, the pros have not bet the Bengals. I’ve decided not to bet this game.

The Psychology. Edge: Bengals.

The Chargers, coming off a big win against the Steelers on national TV, have to prepare for the Chiefs in four days.

The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.

A good chunk on the host.

Percentage of money on San Angeles: 65% (11,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bengals.

Bengals are 43-27 ATS as underdogs since 2009.

Opening Line: Chargers -14.5.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Cloudy, 68 degrees. Light wind.

Week 14 NFL Pick: Chargers 30, Bengals 13
Chargers -16 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 48.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Chargers 26, Bengals 21

Detroit Lions (4-8) at Arizona Cardinals (3-9)
Line: Lions by 3. Total: 40.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Lions -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Lions -3.
Sunday, Dec 9, 4:25 PM

The Game. Edge: Lions.

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ARIZONA OFFENSE: Josh Rosen has had ups and downs this year, though defintiely more downs than ups. That was not the case this past Sunday. He was fortunate that a potential interception of his was dropped late in the fourth quarter. On the very next play, he converted a third-and-long to Larry Fitzgerald to help set up the game-winning field goal. Rosen had solid success against a sub-par pass defense in Lambeau, which is saying something, given that he’s dealing with offensive line issues.

Unfortunately for Rosen, it’s just going to keep getting worse. He lost guard Mike Iupati, creating another hole up front. Meanwhile, Christian Kirk is out for the year as well. Kirk has been a potent downfield threat for Rosen, but he’s gone. As a result, Rosen has just one viable receiver in Larry Fitzgerald, and he’ll have to get open against Darius Slay, one of the better cornerbacks in the NFL.

If the Cardinals were smart, they’d use David Johnson more as a receiving threat, but they refuse to do so for some mysterious reason. Johnson will need to get yardage aerially because he has a tough matchup against a Detroit run defense that has improved since acquiring Snacks Harrison.

DETROIT OFFENSE: Like the Cardinals, the Lions have issues on their offensive line and in their receiving corps. Thanks to the Golden Tate trade and Marvin Jones’ injury, they, too, have just one potent receiving threat. And similarly to Fitzgerald, Kenny Golladay may have trouble getting open against Patrick Peterson’s elite coverage.

Matthew Stafford will have to look elsewhere, all while dealing with his pass protection problems up front. Stafford’s offensive line has been exposed ever since the Tate deal, as Stafford can’t release the ball as quickly. Arizona’s pass rush put heat on Aaron Rodgers, so it should do the same to Stafford.

The Cardinals are far worse against the run and can’t cover the middle of the field because of top linebacker Josh Bynes’ absence. Thus, it’ll be important for the Lions to have Kerryon Johnson available for the first time since Week 11. He and Theo Riddick should have solid performances.

RECAP: I don’t have a great read on every NFL team, but I definitely do for the Lions. I’m 8-4 against the spread picking their games this year following a simple rule: If they’re playing a good team, go against them. If they’re playing a bad team, pick them.

The Lions don’t play up to their competition, but they don’t play down to it either. They won’t play down to the Cardinals. They’ll take care of business against an Arizona team that just won its Super Bowl. I can’t imagine the Cardinals playing as well as they did in Lambeau this past Sunday, especially after losing a starting guard and one of the top two receivers. I’m on Detroit for a couple of units.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’ve realized that I like the Lions more than initially anticipated. The Cardinals just lost two offensive linemen – D.J. Humphries, Mike Iupati – to season-ending injuries, while Detroit is the better team. This spread should be Detroit -3 at the very least, which is what the advance line was. This spread fell half a point off a key number because of Arizona’s win in Lambeau, but let’s not forget that the Cardinals are two weeks removed from losing to the Raiders at home.

SATURDAY NOTES: It’d be nice if the Lions didn’t list every single player on their roster as questionable, but it sounds like they’ll all play because they’ve been limited in practice.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m curious to see if the sharps come in on the Cardinals. If so, we could get good value with the Lions. Detroit is listed at -3 +100 right now, but I’d love to get -2.5 -105, or something like that.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I was hoping to get a good number on -2.5, but that didn’t happen. Instead, I’ll take the -3 +105 available at Bookmaker.

The Psychology. Edge: Lions.

The Cardinals just won their Super Bowl. Letdown incoming.

The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.
A slight lean on the visitor.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 63% (7,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Lions are 19-7 ATS on the road after a home loss of 10+.

Matthew Stafford is 12-24 ATS in December and January.

Cardinals are 29-16 ATS in December home games since 2000.

Cardinals are 34-17 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 since 2007.

Opening Line: Lions -1.5.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 14 NFL Pick: Lions 26, Cardinals 20
Lions -3 +105 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$210
Over 40.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Lions 17, Cardinals 3

Philadelphia Eagles (6-6) at Dallas Cowboys (7-5)
Line: Cowboys by 3.5. Total: 45.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -3.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Cowboys -3.5.
Sunday, Dec 9, 4:25 PM

The Game. Edge: Cowboys.

Emmitt on the Brink Season 11 is underway! In Episode 13, with the statues prepared to attack, Roger Goodell makes an important announcement about the Thanksgiving games. Meanwhile, Eric Mangini saves the day.

DALLAS OFFENSE: Ezekiel Elliott had a string of consecutive 100-yard rushing games broken this past week against the Saints’ stellar ground defense. That string began against Philadelphia on Week 10. Elliott rushed for 151 yards and a touchdown on just 19 carries, and he also caught six passes for 36 receiving yards. What’s crazy about that is the Eagles had their best linebacker, Jordan Hicks, on the field in that game. Hicks got hurt the following week in New Orleans and hasn’t played since.

Everyone looks at the Eagles’ secondary for being atrocious, but their run defense has been horrible as well. They surrendered a 90-yard touchdown run to Adrian Peterson on Monday night. They limited him otherwise, but that’s because they didn’t have to respect the pass with Mark Sanchez on the field. Things will be different in Dallas.

The Cowboys still gave up too much in the Amari Cooper trade, but there’s no doubt that Cooper has changed the way opposing defenses play against the Cowboys. Teams can no longer play close to the line of scrimmage, which has opened things up for Elliott. Dak Prescott’s play has improved as well, and he should be able to perform well against Philadelphia’s putrid defense.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Eagles have a big advantage on this side of the ball as well. The Cowboys tend to struggle versus tight ends, and this was apparent in the first meeting between the two teams. Zach Ertz went nuts, catching 14 passes for 145 yards and two touchdowns. That was his best performance of the year.

That game against Dallas marked the first time Golden Tate wore an Eagles jersey (unless he happened to own one as a kid.) Philadelphia tried to get Tate involved, but it didn’t work very well. Tate struggled for the next couple of games, but it looked like he and Carson Wentz finally clicked against the Redskins. Tate caught all seven of his targets for 85 yards and a touchdown Monday night. If this continues, that’ll be huge for the Eagles because the Cowboys won’t be able to take away both Tate and Alshon Jeffery. They have one terrific cornerback in Byron Jones, but the rest of the secondary is pretty lackluster.

One thing the Eagles will not be able to do is run the ball. Dallas has an excellent ground defense, so Josh Adams and company will be limited. That’s another reason why it’s imperative for Wentz and Tate to continue to show a great connection.

RECAP: I think this spread is right where it should be. I made it -3.5, and while the line opened -4, it quickly dropped to -3.5 with sharp action on Philadelphia.

I’m still going to take the Eagles at +3.5. The Cowboys are coming off a couple of misleading victories. They struggled to put away Colt McCoy, trailing 13-10 against him on Thanksgiving before some fluky plays, and then they caught a sleepwalking Saints team off-guard. The Eagles are better now than they were back in Week 10, as their secondary is healthier and Wentz has a better rapport with Tate.

This should be a close game, so I’m going to take the points. Betting this game, however, seems unappealing because I don’t see any line value or any other miscellaneous factors.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This has nothing to do with my pick, but I wanted to see how moderately sized favorites (3.5-5.5 points) have done after wins as big underdogs (6-10 points). It’s not pretty; those teams are 14-27 against the spread (excluding Week 17 because that’s not real football.) If that sounds like data mining, it might just be that, but again, that has nothing to do with this zero-unit pick. Just thought it was interesting. I still like the Eagles for a non-wager.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Eagles are missing some key players in Jordan Hicks and Jalen Mills. Meanwhile, Dallas will have Tyron Smith back fromhis two-game absence. The injuries favor the Cowboys, but I’m with the sharps in thinking that Philadelphia covers. That said, I was very close to changing my pick. This was the hardest game of the slate to handicap for me.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m still torn on this game, though the sharps have taken this down to Dallas -3 -120. The pros love the Eagles, but I’m not sure if they’re right.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps were on the Eagles for most of the week. Other pro money came in on Dallas today, moving this line to -3.5. I actually wish I could change my pick right now, but it’s too late for that.

The Psychology. Edge: Eagles.

The Cowboys are coming off a big upset, while the Eagles will be seeking revenge.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 57% (22,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

History: Road Team has won 13 of the last 17 meetings.

Eagles are 29-18 ATS as road underdogs since 2005.

The underdog is 83-54 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.

Carson Wentz is 23-16 SU, 21-18 ATS as a starter.

Cowboys are 19-31 ATS as home favorites in Cowboys Stadium (excluding Thanksgiving).

Cowboys are 16-27 ATS when favored after a win since 2010.

Opening Line: Cowboys -4.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Dome.

Week 14 NFL Pick: Cowboys 26, Eagles 23
Eagles +3.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 45.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Cowboys 29, Eagles 23

Pittsburgh Steelers (7-4-1) at Oakland Raiders (2-10)
Line: Steelers by 10. Total: 51.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Steelers -12.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Steelers -7.5.
Sunday, Dec 9, 8:20 PM

The Game. Edge: Steelers.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is Slow and Sucky Subway.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: James Conner suffered a leg injury on the final offensive drive of the Sunday night game. It initially sounded like he’d be able to suit up for this contest, as it was just a contusion. However, that’s not the case. Conner is out, so the Steelers will have to use a committee to replace him.

It’s a shame for Conner that he’s out, as he had a golden opportunity to post some big-time numbers. The Raiders have one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL, and their linebackers struggle to cover pass-catching running backs. Replacement Jaylen Samuels stands to have a big performance in all aspects.

Of course, the weakness of Oakland’s defense is its non-existent pass rush. Khalil Mack’s absence has had a profound impact on the defense, so the Raiders’ inability to generate consistent heat on the quarterback will make things very easy for Ben Roethlisberger. The Raiders have a couple of talented players in the secondary, but if Roethlisberger has all the time in the world to locate Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster, he’ll be able to deliver the ball to them. Vance McDonald should also have a big game, as Oakland’s linebackers won’t be able to deal with him.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: The Steelers have some glaring defensive issues that have been exposed in recent weeks. Their linebacking corps has trouble covering, while Terrell Edmunds is a liability in the secondary. Meanwhile, Joe Haden is the only talented cornerback Pittsburgh possesses, so opposing quarterbacks can have success throwing into Pittsburgh’s defense.

Most quarterbacks, that is. I’m not sure if Derek Carr qualifies. It’s not really Carr so much as it is his supporting cast. His top receivers are the decrepit Jordy Nelson and the inexperienced Marcell Ateman. I’m sure Haden will smother Nelson, while Ateman will continue to be inefficient.

The Raiders do have a ray of hope in being ability to expose Pittsburgh’s linebackers. Jared Cook has enjoyed some huge performances this season, and this could be yet another one. Meanwhile, the Steelers have issues defending pass-catching running backs, so Jalen Richard, whom Jon Gruden compared to Charlie Garner, could have a nice outing against the Steelers.

RECAP: This has the makings of a classic Steelers sluggish letdown against a bad team on the road. Pittsburgh constantly sleepwalks through these games, and the records show that to be the case. The Steelers are an uncanny 4-17 against the spread on the road as favorites of eight or more since 1990. It’s unbelievable how bad they are in these situations. Now, you might say, “But the Raiders are horrible!” Well, don’t you think they were playing other horrible teams when they were favored by eight or more in those other instances?

I can’t see the Steelers being remotely focused in this game, especially considering that they have to play the Patriots next week. Meanwhile, the Raiders were able to stay within a touchdown of the Chiefs last week, so I don’t see why they couldn’t cover this colossal spread, especially when considering that Pittsburgh won’t have Conner available. I like Oakland here for three units. I’d be even heavier on them if the Steelers were coming off a win.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The unfocused Steelers won’t run the ball nearly as well in this game, while the Raiders will be able to throw on Pittsburgh’s secondary. The Raiders should cover this insanely large number. The sharps agree, as they’ve been betting Oakland.

SATURDAY NOTES: Kelechi Osemele is questionable heading into this game after missing Friday’s practice. That’s a slight concern, but Osemele hasn’t played well this year. I still like the Raiders considerably.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The Raiders are still my top play of the late afternoon, save for Denver. This spread is just way too high, as the Raiders have played a number of close games this season when they’ve tried. This seems like a high-effort game from them because of the spread and rivalry.

FINAL THOUGHTS: TopBet currently has the Raiders available at +10 -110, whereas most other books have -115 listed. This line and juice have moved because of some professional money on Oakland.

The Psychology. Edge: Raiders.

The Steelers figure to be half-asleep in this game with the Patriots coming up.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
I imagine public money will come in on the Steelers later in the week. The sharps are betting on Oakland.

Percentage of money on Oakland: 55% (7,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Raiders.

Ben Roethlisberger is 46-33 ATS in December and January.

Mike Tomlin is 22-13 ATS after losing as a favorite.

Steelers are 24-39 ATS as road favorites since 2007.

Steelers are 4-17 ATS on the road as favorites of -8 or more since 1990.

Raiders are 17-11 ATS as double-digit underdogs since 2008.

Opening Line: Steelers -11.5.

Opening Total: 52.

Weather: Cloudy, 58 degrees. Light wind.

Week 14 NFL Pick: Steelers 27, Raiders 20
Raiders +10 (3 Units) – Top Bet — Correct; +$300
Under 51.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Raiders 24, Steelers 21

Los Angeles Rams (11-1) at Chicago Bears (8-4)
Line: Rams by 3. Total: 51.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Rams -3.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Bears -1.
Sunday, Dec 9, 1:00 PM

The Game. Edge: None.

I’m going to devote this section to Ross Avila. If this is your first time reading this, and you don’t know who Ross is, he’s a douche who harassed me on Facebook about my picks all last year. Here are some of the things he said:

He wrote this to me during the Patriots-Falcons Super Bowl, where he bragged about being right about Atlanta. Oops.

Ross constantly embarrassed himself throughout the year, including when he posted this, suggesting that he sold picks to people:

I eventually unfriended Ross. He started going after women on my Facebook page, including my then-fiancee. I warned him, and he didn’t listen, so I unfriended him.

Because I was a big part of Ross’ life, he sent me countless messages. I’ve shown you some already. Check this one out:

“I check you’re pics again and your an idiot bigger then ever.” There’s something ironic about this sentence, and I’d point it out to Ross, but I don’t think he’d understand.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: It’s looking like Mitchell Trubisky will return from his two-game absence. He’s back at just the right time, too, as Chase Daniel would’ve been a sitting duck in the backfield with Aaron Donald rushing in the interior. Donald has been a monster this season, logging 16.5 sacks. He single-handedly disrupted some drives against the Lions, and he’ll win in the interior in this contest. The Bears have a good offensive line, but no one can block Donald right now.

That’s why it’s important for the Bears to have Trubisky available. Trubisky is an inconsistent passer, but his scrambling ability will be enormous in this contest. He’ll be able to escape from some Donald sacks. If you look at some of the offenses that have had success against the Rams’ defense, they’ve had quarterbacks who can move around. Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers have all generated a healthy point total against the Rams. Drew Brees did as well, but he’s obviously on another plane of existence as far as NFL quarterbacks are concerned.

Trubisky should be able to buy himself some time to expose Marcus Peters or simply scramble for some nice gains. I also like Tarik Cohen’s chances of having a big game, as the Rams’ linebackers really struggle to cover. The Rams aren’t great against the run either, so Cohen and Jordan Howard will help Trubisky stay out of long-yardage situations.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: With apologies to the Ravens, the Bears have the best defense in the NFL. As with Donald, they have a tremendous interior presence in Akiem Hicks, who will make life difficult for Jared Goff. And then there’s Khalil Mack, who will be able to win matchups against Andrew Whitworth. Goff is normally extremely well protected, so it’ll be interesting to see what happens if he has defenders in his face for most of the evening.

We also haven’t seen the Rams play a full game without Cooper Kupp against a good defense yet. They were able to light up the Chiefs’ poor stop unit, and they slogged through a sleepy game against the Lions’ horrible defense, but the Bears will provide a completely different challenge. Chicago’s secondary is excellent and will be able to slow down two dynamic threats. It’d be different if Goff had three potent receivers at his disposal, but that’s no longer the case.

Todd Gurley, of course, will be a tremendous threat out of the backfield, but the Bears have one of the best run defenses in the NFL. I think Gurley will have more success as a receiver out of the backfield, but he’ll have trouble finding holes to move through on the ground.

RECAP: The Rams should not be three-point road favorites in this matchup. They haven’t had a tough battle as visitors yet except for the New Orleans and Seattle games. They lost to the Saints and eked out a two-point victory against the Seahawks. Their next-toughest road tilt was at Denver, which was decided by three points. The Bears are much better than the Seahawks and Broncos.

I’d be higher on the Bears than I am now if I were completely sure that Trubisky were 100 percent. I think he will be, and that’s automatically putting me on Chicago for two units. I may increase my wager depending on what I hear about Trubisky as the week progresses, but all indications thus far are that he’s fine.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Mitchell Trubisky is practicing fully, so it looks like we’re going to go with a big play on the Bears! Trubisky’s return gives the Bears a big edge on the ground versus the Rams’ 25th-ranked DVOA rush defense.

SATURDAY NOTES: Mitchell Trubisky will start Sunday night. The sharps are betting down the Bears, predictably. Remarkably, the best Bears +3 line is now -120 at Bovada and Top Bet. Hopefully, that changes.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Some +3 -115s appeared (Bovada, Top Bet.) I’m going to lock that in. It’s possible we could see +3 -110, but I think there’s more of a chance we’ll continue to see sharp action on the Bears. This is going to be a three-unit wager.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The public’s taking the Rams. The sharps are on the Bears. You can get +3 -110 at Bovada, though this line is +3 -115 or +3 -120 elsewhere. I still like the Bears quite a bit. I’m on them for three units, but I thought about adding a fourth unit.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.

A good chunk of the action is on the Rams.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 66% (22,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Rams -3.5.

Opening Total: 54.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 26 degrees. Light wind.

Week 14 NFL Pick: Bears 30, Rams 27
Bears +3 -115 (3 Units) – Bovada — Correct; +$300
Over 51 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Bears 15, Rams 6

Minnesota Vikings (6-5-1) at Seattle Seahawks (7-5)
Line: Seahawks by 3. Total: 45.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Seahawks -6.
Monday, Dec 10, 8:15 PM

The Game. Edge: Seahawks.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have two people I don’t know calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Dan Fouts and Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Seattle, located in the heart of the state of Washington D.C., home of the Seattle Seahawks. Guys, I usually like to stick to football talk, but the producers are making me apologize. Last week, I said that I was going to put Emmitt on my “to kill” list because last week, he called me bulls**t.

Emmitt: Bulls**t, I do not remembering callin’ you bulls**t. Your name clearly not bulls**t because bulls**t the thing that come from butt of animal who name I do not remember, but he probably have something to do with the name bulls**t.

Reilly: Did you just call me bulls**t again, Emmitt? My “to kill” list still stands. F**k you, producers! Emmitt will be added to join every other member of the Cowboys, Giants and Redskins, as well the janitor, who laughed when I slipped and fell on the wet floor, and Bobby from the playground who wouldn’t let me on the spinning turtle. That still hurts me like it was yesterday. It was two weeks ago!

Herm: YOU’RE CRAZY! YOU’RE SICK! YOU’RE DEMENTED! YOU NEED HELP! YOU NEED ASSISTANCE! YOU NEED THERAPY! YOU NEED TO BE LOCKED UP! YOU’RE DANGEROUS! YOU’RE PERILOUS! YOU’RE SCARY! YOU’RE DANGEROUS! HERM SAID THAT ALREADY, BUT HE WANTED TO EMPHASIZE IT! DANGEROUS! THIRD TIME! DANGEROUS! FOURTH TIME! DANGEROUS! FIFTH TIME! DANGEROUS! SIXTH TIME! DANGEROUS! EIGHTH TIME! DANGEROUS! SEVENTH TIME! DANGEROUS! SIXTH TIME! NOW, HERM’S COUNTING BACKWARDS! WHY’S HE COUNTING BACKWARDS!? HERM DOESN’T KNOW! MAYBE HERM’S THE ONE WHO’S CRAZY! MAYBE HERM’S THE ONE WHO’S SICK! MAYBE HERM’S THE ONE WHO’S DEMENTED! MAYBE… demented… uhh… umm…

Reilly: How could I forget!? Herm’s on my “to kill” list, too! But don’t worry, producers, I won’t do it in the booth. I’m against school shootings, and I’m also against NFL studio shootings!

Wolfley: IT’S A GOOD THING YOU SAID YOU’RE AGAINST SCHOOL SHOOTINGS, KEVIN. IF YOU DIDN’T SAY THAT, I WOULD’VE ASSUMED THAT YOU WERE PRO SCHOOL SHOOTINGS. DO YOU KNOW WHO’S PRO SCHOOL SHOOTINGS? FRENCH FRIES WHO HAVE RED, LIQUID BEARDS.

Tollefson: What the hell is a French fry with a red, liquid beard? Do you mean ketchup? Talk about crazy, sick and demented. Anyway, Reilly, you’re not nuts. I personally don’t think there’s anything wrong with having a “to kill” list either. For example, one of my neighbors tried telling the police that I had naked women locked in my cellar. So, I clubbed him over the head with a lead pipe and buried him in the desert. Nothing wrong with that at all.

Fouts: And here’s what he means by clubbing someone in the head with a lead pipe in the desert. There are several weapons you can club someone over the head with. You can club someone over the head with a candlestick. You can club someone over the head with a wrench. You can club someone over the head with a rope. You can do it in the ballroom. You can do it in the lounge. You can do it in the library. Or, you can even do it in the desert. So, my guess is Don Tollefson with the lead pipe in the desert.

Tollefson: Fouts, you’re an idiot. We’re not playing Clue. And even if we were, we wouldn’t let a dork like Reilly play with us.

Reilly: What!? Why not!? New daddy, make the cool kids play with me! Bribe them if you have to like you did the other day!

Cutler: No thanks. That exerted all of my effort for the week. Now, leave me alone as I sit here, staring into space with my mouth agape.

Tollefson: No, new daddy! Please! Make them play with me!

Charles Davis: It’s OK, Kevin, we’ll play Clue while the game is going on, Kevin, even though you like sticking to football talk, apparently, Kevin. Let’s begin, Kevin. Oh, you guessed Ms. White, Kevin, with the knife, Kevin, in the desert, Kevin? Wow, Kevin, you’re so good at this game, Kevin. You’ve already won, Kevin. You are the best Clue player of all time, Kevin.

Tollefson: That’s bulls**t! You just let him win!

Reilly: Shut up, Tolly! Charles Davis is right. We can talk about how great of a Clue player I am after the break. We’ll be back after this!

Charles Davis (inaudibly): Yes, Kevin, I will convince you that you’re not only great at Clue, Kevin, but that you’re great at Monopoly, Sorry! and Chutes and Ladders, Kevin, and then, during the Blemmy ceremony, you will learn that you are not, Kevin, muhahaha, Kevin.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: I would’ve had a different take on this matchup heading into the season. The Vikings have a stellar defensive line, while the Seahawks were seen as having a poor blocking unit. This would’ve been a huge advantage early in the season, but things look different now.

The Vikings still have the edge in the trenches, but that’s not as lopsided as it once appeared to be. The Seahawks have protected Russell Wilson better than expected, though the loss of guard D.J. Fluker could hurt. Still, Wilson will have opportunities to expose the weaknesses in Minnesota’s defense, and there definitely are some. Thanks to injuries, the cornerbacks aren’t in good shape. Xavier Rhodes is still able to shut down an opposing receiver, but that’s pretty much it. The Vikings have liabilities elsewhere at cornerback, and Wilson has three potent downfield threats in Doug Baldwin, Tyler Lockett and David Moore.

The Vikings also have some linebackers who can’t cover. The Seahawks don’t have a tight end who can take advantage of this weakness, but Rashaad Penny could as a receiver out of the backfield. Chris Carson got hurt at the end of last week’s game, which could be a blessing in disguise because it could allow the more-talented Penny to see a greater workload.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The Vikings, like the Seahawks, had some major offensive line issues heading into the season. Except for Minnesota, it still seems like a massive problem. The Seahawks were able to put heavy pressure on Nick Mullens last week, and I expect them to have similar success hounding Kirk Cousins in this contest.

Cousins struggled last week against the Patriots, as Bill Belichick was able to use his incredible football brain power to eliminate Adam Thielen from the game plan. Stefon Diggs being banged up didn’t help matters. Fortunately for the Vikings, the Seahawks don’t have good cornerbacks, so they can’t eliminate Thielen without constantly double teaming him, and if they do that, they’ll have to worry about Diggs, who will be healthier this week. Still, it’s not like Cousins will be able to consistently shred the Seahawks because he’ll be under duress quite a bit.

The Vikings will be able to help Cousins by keeping the ball on the ground. Dalvin Cook is 100 percent now, and he has a good matchup against a Seattle run defense that is 20th in DVOA. Thus, it’ll be crucial for Minnesota’s defense to slow down the Seahawks a bit to allow Cook to get more carries this week.

RECAP: The Seahawks are a much better team than the Vikings. They’ve been on a tear recently, as Wilson has caught fire. The Vikings, meanwhile, have only beaten teams with losing or .500 records this season. Their victories have come against the 49ers, Eagles, Cardinals, Jets, Lions and Packers. Whenever they’ve battled a good team, they’ve folded. Their toughest competition this season has been against the Rams, Saints, Bears and Patriots. All four games were losses.

The Seahawks aren’t as good as those four teams, but they’re close. They’re also great at home in night games. And yet, despite this, they’re only three-point favorites. I made this line -6, and a computer model that I’m subscribed to also made this spread Seattle -6. I’ll be on the host for three units.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m going to lock this in now. I hate paying above -110 juice, but there’s a good chance this spread will hit -3.5 soon. The best of the -3s available is at Bookmaker, at -115.

SATURDAY NOTES: Ugh, so much for locking this in at -3 -115. There are some -3 -110s available now. I imagine that’s because Doug Baldwin is now a game-time decision. I still like the Seahawks if Baldwin sits, as the Vikings will be without two of their top three cornerbacks.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Pete Carroll is usually optimistic about injuries, but he hasn’t sounded that way regarding Doug Baldwin. I still like the Seahawks without Baldwin.

MONDAY AFTERNOON NOTES: I was a bit premature in locking in -3 -115, but it wasn’t a bad move because some books have moved to -3.5 -105. There are still some that have -3 -115 listed (Bookmaker, BetUS), but it seems like this spread is headed for -3.5. If you like the Seahawks, I’d lock in -3 -115 because -3.5 is a lot less desirable.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This line never moved to -3.5 because Doug Baldwin has been ruled out. I still like the Seahawks though. Most books still have -3 -115 listed, but 5Dimes has -3 -110 available.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.
Money coming in on the Seahawks.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 63% (49,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

Mike Zimmer is 50-25 ATS as head coach of the Vikings.

Seahawks are 45-27 ATS as home favorites since 2007.

Russell Wilson is 16-6 ATS in night games.

Opening Line: Seahawks -3.5.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: .

Week 14 NFL Pick: Seahawks 27, Vikings 21
Seahawks -3 -115 (3 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$300
Over 45.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Seahawks 21, Vikings 7

Week 14 NFL Picks – Early Games
Jacksonville at Tennessee, NY Jets at Buffalo, Carolina at Cleveland, Atlanta at Green Bay, Baltimore at Kansas City, New England at Miami, New Orleans at Tampa Bay, NY Giants at Washington, Indianapolis at Houston

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser: Patriots -1.5, Bears +8.5 (2 Units) — WTF, how did this lose!?!? — Incorrect; -$220

The Patriots should beat a Miami team missing its top cornerback. The Bears, meanwhile, have a good chance to beat the Rams outright, so getting four key numbers out of the deal seems like a winner.

NFL Picks - Nov. 20

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 12, 2024): 11-3 (+$2,020)
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Last Week Over-Under (Week 12, 2024): 6-8 ($0)
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2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 89-82-6, 52.0% (-$2,545)
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1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
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2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
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2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)