Kansas City Chiefs (9-2) at Oakland Raiders (2-9) Line: Chiefs by 14. Total: 53.5. Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -14.
Walt's Calculated Line: Chiefs -13.
Sunday, Dec 2, 4:05 PM
The Game. Edge: Chiefs.
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KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: As we saw Monday night, the only way to slow down the Chiefs is to force Patrick Mahomes into some turnovers. That, however, is easier said than done, especially for a team like the Raiders that has just 11 take-aways all year!
I can't see the Raiders doing anything to stop the Chiefs from scoring. They have liabilities all over their defense, which Mahomes will be able to exploit with ease. Their linebackers are atrocious and won't be able to cover Kareem Hunt and Travis Kelce. Their cornerbacks and safeties aren't good enough to slow down Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins. And they have no pass rush to put heat on Mahomes. This matchup is extremely lopsided.
OAKLAND OFFENSE: The Raiders will have to keep up with the Chiefs in order to have a chance at beating them covering the spread. The problem with this is that the Raiders struggle to block, and the one thing Kansas City's defense does well at the moment is put pressure on opposing quarterbacks with Justin Houston, Dee Ford and Chris Jones. I don't think Oakland will be able to keep that trio out of the backfield.
Pressure on Derek Carr has created some killer turnovers this year, and I imagine the Chiefs will get some take-aways of their own in this game. It would help Carr if he had viable targets to throw to, but he doesn't, outside of Jared Cook. His new No. 1 receiver is someone named Marcell Ateman, who was able to convert just three of his 10 targets against the Ravens.
Meanwhile, the Oakland running game won't be a factor if the team is in an early deficit. Doug Martin hasn't been bad as a replacement for the injured Marshawn Lynch, but he's not getting to do much because the Raiders are constantly way behind all the time.
RECAP: This spread is too high, right? Fifteen!? How many times have road favorites of 15-plus covered throughout the history of the NFL, you ask? Well, the database at KillerSports.com goes back to 1989, and a quick query reveals that road favorites of 15 or more are actually 7-5 against the spread since that year. Not bad! The last time we saw a road favorite of 15 or more was in 2007 when the Patriots were -16 at the Dolphins, -15.5 at the Bills and -20 at the Ravens. They covered the first two and lost the third.
Given that the Chiefs are extremely dominant offensively, and the Raiders are embarrassingly inept on both sides of the ball, I'd say this spread is warranted. Oh, and Andy Reid's pretty damn good off a bye.
Believe it or not, but I'm going to bet a couple of units on the Chiefs. Laying 15 in the NFL with a road team seems treacherous at first glance, but I've shown you that teams cover such a spread more often than not.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I'm still on the Chiefs for two units. I doubt anything is going to change my mind about this game.
SATURDAY NOTES: Kareem Hunt has been cut after the TMZ video of him hitting a woman surfaced. I think the Chiefs should be fine with Spencer Ware on paper, but the incident could serve as a distraction. I'm still going to stay on the Chiefs, but I'm dropping the unit count from two to zero.
SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The Chiefs will still probably win in a blowout, but the Kareem Hunt situation could serve as a distraction. It sucks that this ruined a nice bet.
FINAL THOUGHTS: Nothing really makes sense today, so maybe the Raiders will upset the Chiefs. Again, I'm not betting this game, and it doesn't look like the sharps are either.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.
Most people think the Chiefs will win by at least 16.
Percentage of money on Kansas City: 69% (17,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.
History: Road Team has won 14 of the last 23 meetings.
Andy Reid is 15-7 ATS on the West Coast.
Andy Reid is 13-6 ATS off a bye.
Raiders are 16-11 ATS as double-digit underdogs since 2008.
New York Jets (3-8) at Tennessee Titans (5-6) Line: Titans by 10. Total: 40.5. Westgate Advance Point Spread: No Line (Mariota).
Walt's Calculated Line: Titans -7.
Sunday, Dec 2, 4:05 PM
The Game. Edge: Titans.
Make sure you get your pick in for the WalterFootball.com 2018 NFL Survivor Pool. Of the 1,225 starting players, we are down to the final two: Pawel Kot and Johnny Football. Congrats to both of you for making it this far!
TENNESSEE OFFENSE: The Titans were a major disappointment Monday night. Their offensive line couldn't protect Marcus Mariota at all, as Mariota was pressured frequently. Both tackles struggled mightily, which was surprising because it's usually the interior which struggles.
With that in mind, it's going to be difficult for the Titans to block the Jets. While New York doesn't have a quality edge rush, it can win in the interior with Leonard Williams. I don't think the Titans will block him or Mike Pennel very well. Mariota will have to hurry some throws, all while his running game is shut down.
The Jets do some things well with their pass defense. They can defend tight ends and pass-catching running backs because of their linebacker play, so it'll be tough for Mariota to get Jonnu Smith and Dion Lewis going as receiving threats. Meanwhile, Corey Davis doesn't have the easiest matchup, though I think he could still have a decent game.
NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Titans' loss Monday night was mystifying for a number of reasons, one of which was Lamar Miller's production. Miller is not very good, and his run blocking is poor, and the Titans stop the run well. And yet, Miller had an explosive performance, which featured a 97-yard touchdown burst.
Fortunately for the Titans, the Jets don't run the ball very well. Isaiah Crowell won't be able to duplicate what Miller accomplished. Bilal Powell would have a chance to do some damage as a receiving threat out of the backfield, but he's been missed ever since he got hurt against the Vikings. The Jets' offense hasn't really been the same since he suffered that injury.
The one piece of good news for the Jets is that the Titans have a banged-up secondary. Both Malcolm Butler and Adoree Jackson left the Monday night affair with injuries, so if they both happen to be out, Josh McCown will have some success moving the chains. McCown was able to put together some scoring drives against the Patriots, and I imagine he'll be able to do the same in this game if Tennessee is down a couple of cornerbacks.
RECAP: This spread seems like it's a bit too high. I made it Tennessee -7, yet it's a couple of points higher than that. Considering that Tennessee's offense is limited by poor protection, and that the Titans have a short work week, I'm slightly surprised that this spread is above a touchdown.
I'm not going to rush to bet a McCown-backed team at the moment, but if the Titans have some serious injury issues leading up to this game, I may put a unit or two on the visitor. I'll eagerly await the injury reports.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Both Sam Darnold and Josh McCown have been limited in practice. I thought about betting the Jets, but it bothers me that neither of their quarterbacks is practicing fully. Let's see what the final injury report looks like.
SATURDAY NOTES: The Titans will have their entire starting secondary intact, which was a question mark earlier in the week. Still, I like the Jets to cover, though we still don't know who's starting at quarterback for them.
SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This spread has risen to +10 with sharp action on the Titans. I'm wondering if the pros know something about the Jets' quarterbacks as far as them playing through injuries. I'm not going to bet this game.
FINAL THOUGHTS: Professional money on Tennessee may have pushed this line to -10, but it's stopped there. If you liked the Titans, the value is gone. However, there is defintiely value with the Jets if you like them enough.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
Percentage of money on Tennessee: 52% (9,000 bets)
Minnesota Vikings (6-4-1) at New England Patriots (8-3) Line: Patriots by 5.5. Total: 49. Westgate Advance Point Spread: Patriots -6.
Walt's Calculated Line: Patriots -7.
Sunday, Dec 2, 4:25 PM
The Game. Edge: Patriots.
Emmitt on the Brink Season 11 is underway! In Episode 12, the real villain behind the Gillette Stadium murders is revealed as there is an attack during the Patriots-Raiders game.
NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Tom Brady didn't play well against the Jets. He threw some ugly ducks, especially in the red zone, where he missed a couple of touchdowns. The Patriots could have blown out the Jets, but New York was able to hang around because Brady wasn't quite himself. Brady, of course, missed Friday's practice because of a knee injury and an illness, so perhaps that's why he was uncharacteristically off the mark so often.
I expect Brady to play much better in this contest. This is a big game, and he'll be a week removed from whatever was bothering him leading up to the Jets contest. Besides, Brady will be able to exploit some extremely positive matchups in his favor. The Vikings' linebackers can't cover the middle of the field, which seems like a very dangerous proposition against Brady, given that he likes to attack defenses by throwing to Rob Gronkowski and James White. Meanwhile, the Vikings have issues at cornerback. They can't defend the slot because of Mike Hughes' injury, and now Xavier Rhodes is injured after hurting his hamstring late in the Green Bay victory. It's unclear if Rhodes will be able to play or not, but if he's hurt or hindered, that'll unlock another great matchup for Brady, as Josh Gordon will benefit. Julian Edelman, meanwhile, will be very productive.
The one chance the Vikings have of slowing Brady down is generating a heavy pass rush on him. They might be able to get to Brady on occasion, but New England's offensive line is fully intact. This was not the case against the Titans, which is why the Patriots were blown out, but the blocking group is completely healthy, which is enormous for the Patriots moving forward.
MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Bill Belichick is the master of erasing one aspect of an opposing offense, so I imagine he'll focus on stopping Adam Thielen. The dynamic slot receiver is having a big year, but Belichick will likely scheme to take him out of the game, forcing the other Vikings to beat his defense. Belichick has talented cornerbacks at his disposal, and they'll be able to carry out this game plan.
Of course, generating heavy pressure on Kirk Cousins will go a long way in keeping Thielen and Stefon Diggs from killing the Patriots. New England's pass rush isn't great as a whole, but Trey Flowers has been tremendous this year, and he'll be able to win his battles in the trenches to put some heat on Kirk Cousins, who isn't protected very well.
The Patriots are weakest in the middle of the field, as their linebackers are pretty lackluster. The Vikings should focus on this and attack New England with Kyle Rudolph and Dalvin Cook. I'm not sure Cook will do much on the ground, but he could be a great receiving option out of the backfield.
RECAP: Call me crazy, but in a big game, I trust Brady over Cousins. The current Viking quarterback always seems to come up short in important moments, and I would qualify this one as such. Meanwhile, unless Brady misses more practice time, I'm confident he'll bounce back with a strong performance in this game. I like the matchups Brady has at his disposal in this contest.
New England, in my opinion, is substantially better than Minnesota, which has some misleading victories on its slate. The Vikings haven't really beaten a quality opponent yet this year. They have wins over the 49ers, Eagles, Cardinals, Jets, Lions and Packers. None of those teams have winning records, and four of those victories have come at home. However, because the Vikings just won on national TV, that has worked to suppress this spread a bit, which should be closer to seven.
I wouldn't go crazy with this because I could see the Vikings could easily get a back-door cover, but I like the Patriots, and I'd be willing to bet a couple of units on them. I'll even consider raising the unit count if Rhodes is out.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Stefon Diggs has yet to practice this week, which moved this line up to -5.5. It sounds like Diggs will play, but will he be 100 percent? And what about Xavier Rhodes, who has yet to practice this week? I like the Patriots and may move this to three units.
SATURDAY NOTES: Stefon Diggs will reportedly play, which is one of the reasons why the spread dropped back down to +5. The other is that Xavier Rhodes will likely play, though I'm not sure if he's 100 percent. He could easily aggravate his hamstring. I still like the Patriots quite a bit.
SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Stefon Diggs woke up with swelling in his knee. That has caused the spread to jump to -5.5. If Diggs ends up being active, the line will drop, but either way, I don't expect him to be healthy.
FINAL THOUGHTS: Stefon Diggs is active, but there's no telling how healthy he'll be. The sharps aren't convinced he's 100 percent, as they've bet the Patriots up to -6. I'm still on the Patriots for two units. The best line is -5.5 -115 at Bookmaker.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.
A slight amount of action on the Patriots.
Percentage of money on New England: 64% (20,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Patriots.
Mike Zimmer is 50-24 ATS as head coach of the Vikings.
Patriots are 38-17 ATS in December & January home games since 2000.
San Francisco 49ers (2-9) at Seattle Seahawks (6-5) Line: Seahawks by 10. Total: 45.5. Westgate Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -8.5.
Walt's Calculated Line: Seahawks -12.
Sunday, Dec 2, 4:25 PM
The Game. Edge: Seahawks.
A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week's jerks entry is Battle of the Sexes.
SEATTLE OFFENSE: The 49ers looked discombobulated in the wake of Reuben Foster's arrest Sunday. The players must have been shocked by the news, and Foster's absence in the middle of the field clearly affected the defense, as San Francisco looked absolutely helpless to stop the Buccaneers' offense this past week.
Given that, I can't imagine the 49ers doing much to stop Russell Wilson, who has been very hot recently. Wilson's connecting well on deep shots to Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett, and the 49ers have only one viable cornerback in Richard Sherman. I'm sure the former Seahawk will do a good job on Baldwin, but the rest of the 49ers' secondary is an abomination. Wilson will hit his teammates with several bombs.
It'll be up to the 49ers pressuring Russell Wilson into generating turnovers. DeForest Buckner is great up front and should create some havoc in the interior, but the edge rushing isn't there, so Wilson won't have to worry about that at all.
SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Nick Mullens had a great NFL debut a few Thursdays ago, but as it turns out, battling the Raiders is a far cry from taking on legitimate NFL teams. And here's the thing: Mullens hasn't even battled a good defense yet! He's taken on the Raiders, Giants and Buccaneers in his three starts, and he's gotten progressively worse in each contest.
The Seahawks have issues defensively - their cornerbacks are terrible - but they're much better defensively than the three teams Mullens has taken on thus far, especially if K.J. Wright can return from injury. But even if he can't, Bobby Wagner will make sure George Kittle doesn't break open for long gains. Limiting Kittle will be huge because the 49ers don't really have consistent downfield options otherwise. Marquise Goodwin is the best of the bunch, but Mullens doesn't have the arm strength to hit him with long passes.
It's possible that the 49ers will be able to establish Matt Breida, especially after what Christian McCaffrey did to Seattle last week. However, the Seahawks couldn't exactly focus on McCaffrey, given that they had Cam Newton to worry about. They'll certainly be able to pay extra attention to Breida.
RECAP: This seems like a blowout. The Seahawks have played a bunch of great or mediocre teams lately, but they haven't battled an easy foe since Week 8, when they destroyed the Lions, and that was before the Golden Tate trade.
The 49ers are in worse shape than Detroit was prior to dealing Tate. Foster's absence has created a big void in the middle of the defense, while Mullens has fallen off considerably since his impressive debut. The fact that Mullens hasn't battled an opponent better than the Giants/Buccaneers would be a huge concern for me if I were thinking about taking the points.
Fortunately, I'm not. I actually love the Seahawks to cover the double digits quite easily against a horrible quarterback. This is a four-unit selection.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This just seems like an easy win. The only way the Seahawks don't dismantle the Reuben Foster-less 49ers is if they're distracted off their big win in Carolina, but that seems somewhat unlikely.
SATURDAY NOTES: The 49ers are going to be down a couple of receivers, with Marquise Goodwin and Pierre Garcon out. They won't be able to expose Seattle's defensive weakness, which is cornerback, making this even easier for Seattle.
SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I haven't bet this game yet, as I'm hoping that some -9.5s appear. That would require sharp action on the 49ers, which may not happen.
FINAL THOUGHTS: A -9.5 has appeared on 5Dimes. Nothing else has changed, so I'm still on Seattle for four units.
The Psychology. Edge: 49ers.
The Seahawks are coming off a tough win in Carolina and have the Vikings next week, but this is a divisional opponent, so it's not a clear look-ahead.
The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.
The public is leaning toward the Seahawks.
Percentage of money on Seattle: 68% (16,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.
History: Home Team has won 15 of the last 19 meetings (Seahawks won last 9).
Seahawks are 24-12 ATS in Week 11 or later since 2013.
Seahawks are 44-27 ATS as home favorites since 2007.
Los Angeles Chargers (8-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-3-1) Line: Steelers by 3. Total: 52. Westgate Advance Point Spread: Steelers -4.
Walt's Calculated Line: Steelers -4.
Sunday, Dec 2, 8:20 PM
The Game. Edge: Steelers.
I'm going to devote this section to Ross Avila. If this is your first time reading this, and you don't know who Ross is, he's a douche who harassed me on Facebook about my picks all last year. Here are some of the things he said:
He wrote this to me during the Patriots-Falcons Super Bowl, where he bragged about being right about Atlanta. Oops.
Ross constantly embarrassed himself throughout the year, including when he posted this, suggesting that he sold picks to people:
I eventually unfriended Ross. He started going after women on my Facebook page, including my then-fiancee. I warned him, and he didn't listen, so I unfriended him.
Because I was a big part of Ross' life, he sent me countless messages. I've shown you some already. Check this one out:
Wait, wait, wait, wait, wait... First of all, why does Ross need a job if he bets $5,000 per pick? Second, is he really going to ask out the girl he followed home and took pictures of? Holy hell, he's going to get his a** beat!
PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Chargers were able to dominate the Cardinals on both sides of the ball last week. Their defense took care of business because their two dynamic edge rushers, Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram, were able to put immense pressure on Josh Rosen. Arizona couldn't block because D.J. Humphries was out, so Rosen was swarmed on countless snaps.
The Chargers won't be as successful in that regard in this game. The Steelers have one of the better offensive lines in the NFL, and they'll be able to keep Ingram and Bosa at bay, provided that one of their top two right tackles is able to suit up. This will allow Ben Roethlisberger to exploit some of the liabilities the Chargers have defensively. For instance, San Angeles is down two of its best linebackers, so throwing to Vance McDonald and James Conner will work. The Chargers also are weak at cornerback outside of Casey Hayward, so JuJu Smith-Schuster should see favorable coverage.
Another weakness the Chargers have on this side of the ball is their ability to stop the run in the wake of Corey Liuget's injury. The Cardinals couldn't expose this liability because they were down by countless touchdowns by halftime, plus their offensive line sucks. The Steelers will be able to establish Conner and control the pace of the game that way.
SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The Steelers also have a key injury on defense, and that would be to Stephon Tuitt. One of the better 3-4 linemen in the NFL, Tuitt's absence has been felt the past two weeks, as the Steelers haven't been able to control the line of scrimmage without him the past two weeks. Tyson Alualu is a major downgrade from Tuitt.
The Steelers' chances of preventing Philip Rivers from lighting up their secondary hinges on their ability to pressure him. Tuitt's presence will be required to do that. If Tuitt isn't available, Rivers will expose the weaknesses in Pittsburgh's secondary, including cornerback Coty Sensabaugh and safety Terrell Edmunds. The Steelers also don't cover the middle of the field well because they never replaced Ryan Shazier. Rivers will have success throwing to his running back over the middle.
Fortunately for the Steelers, that running back won't be Melvin Gordon. I thought Gordon made a very foolish decision to play against a terrible opponent when he wasn't 100 percent entering the game. Gordon paid the price, and now he'll be out for a week or two. Austin Ekeler has done well in Gordon's absence, but make no mistake - there's a clear downgrade from Gordon to Ekeler.
RECAP: We've seen a price reduction on the Steelers based on recent results. The advance spread was Pittsburgh -4. I don't know what it would've been the week before that, but perhaps it would've been -4.5. Yet, the line has fallen to -3 -130/-3.5 because of what happened last week. The Chargers demolished an abysmal Arizona team, while the Steelers lost at a solid Denver squad that they actually happened to outgain by a wide margin.
The Steelers play much better at home, so I expect them to shake off their recent struggles and win this game. I wish we were getting -3 at a reasonable juice, but perhaps there's a reason we aren't (as was the case with the Vikings versus the Packers last week.) I'm going to bet a couple of units on Pittsburgh, and I'd be willing to increase the unit count to three if Tuitt returns from injury.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This seems like the Panthers at Steelers game from a few weeks ago. Carolina came into Pittsburgh with a great record, yet got dismantled. The Steelers play so much better at home, especially in these night games (unless they're playing the Ravens.)
SATURDAY NOTES: Stephon Tuitt is back in the lineup, which is exactly what I wanted to see. Meanwhile, the Chargers will be missing their top two interior defensive linemen and top two linebackers in addition to Gordon.
SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This spread has fallen to -3 -105, as sharp money has come in on the Chargers. There could be some great value with Pittsburgh a half hour prior to kickoff.
FINAL THOUGHTS: Sharp money bet the Chargers at +3.5, but not so much at +3. The public has come in on Pittsburgh, and I believe they'll have the right side. This line is -3 across the board, but the juice is all over the place. Bovada has the best juice at -115. I still like Pittsburgh for two units.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 59% (24,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
Philip Rivers is 24-11 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 or more. ???
Steelers are 34-17 ATS in December home games since 2000.
Ben Roethlisberger is 46-32 ATS in December and January.
Mike Tomlin is 22-12 ATS after losing as a favorite.
Washington Redskins (6-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-6) Line: Eagles by 5.5. Total: 45. Westgate Advance Point Spread: Eagles -7.
Walt's Calculated Line: Eagles -5.5.
Monday, Dec 3, 8:15 PM
The Game. Edge: Eagles.
This week on ESPN, we're going to have two people I don't know calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Dan Fouts and Jay Cutler. Here's what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:
Reilly: Welcome to the city of Philadelphia, the best place in the entire world, home of my Philadelphia Eagles! Guys, I've been waiting to call an Eagles game all year after we won the Super Bowl, and thanks to a scheduling gaffe, my Super Bowl champion Eagles didn't appear on Monday night until now. This is the reason why my Philadelphia Eagles haven't won every game this year. The league is conspiring against them. This is bulls**t!
Emmitt: Bulls**t, this not only the other reasons the Eagle strugglin' to win game this year. The Eagle do not throw good, nor do he run good, nor do he defense good.
Reilly: Did you just call me bulls**t, Emmitt? With Charles Davis gaining my favor all year, I may just have to add you to my "to kill" list that I have on a whiteboard in my basement. I... wait a second, we're getting a call. Caller, you're on the line.
Caller: Hi, Kevin Reilly, big fan of yours, and I want to say that you deserve the Blemmy that you won. This is Jimmy Haslam, owner of the Cleveland Browns. I'd like for you to interview for the head coaching job for my football team. It's down to you, Condoleezza Rice, Norv Turner and Barron Trump. What you just said about your Philadelphia Eagles was very impressive. We need someone like you in our organization to make great excuses for why our team always loses. What do you say, Kevin?
Herm: DON'T HIRE HIM! DON'T GET HIM! DON'T BRING HIM IN! DON'T DO IT! BIG MISTAKE! HUGE MISTAKE! AWFUL MISTAKE! MONSTROUS MISTAKE! ABYSMAL MISTAKE! ATROCIOUS MISTAKE! KEVIN CAN'T COACH! KEVIN CANT' DO ANYTHING! STILL LIVES WITH HIS MOM! STILL COLLECTS EAGLES POSTERS! STILL A BABY! STILL PATHETIC! HERM'S NOT EVEN GOING TO END SLOWLY DURING THIS RANT! THAT'S HOW PATHETIC KEVIN REILLY IS!
Wolfley: I WOULD HIRE CONDOLEEZZA RICE. SHE REMINDS ME OF MY FAVORITE FOOD, CONDOLEEZZA RICE, WHICH I MAKE ON SPECIAL OCCASIONS WHEN I HAVE STOP SIGNS WITH GLASSES VISITING MY HOME, WHICH, AS YOU CAN IMAGINE, IS A RARE TREAT.
Fouts: And here's what he means by treat. A treat is part of the sentence "trick or treat," which kids say when they come to your house on the holiday, Halloween. This means that if you don't give them a trick, they give you a treat. I have been waiting for kids to give me a treat for almost 50 years now, but they have not given me any candy. Instead, they've toilet papered my house and egged me door after I played a trick on them and then asked for a treat. If you're wondering if these toilet papers and eggs were treats for me, you're not alone. I've eaten the toilet paper, hoping that it's been candy toilet paper, but I've been disappointed every single time.
Tollefson: Fouts, you're an idiot. You're not supposed to give out tricks on Halloween. You're supposed to find women turning tricks and then knock them out with a lead pipe so that you can drag their bodies to your basement and then force them into cooking and cleaning naked for you.
Reilly: Won't anyone let me answer!? Mr. Haslam, I appreciate the offer, but the only team I want to coach is my Philadelphia Eagles.
Haslam: I was afraid you'd say that. I hope you'll reconsider. If you don't, something bad may happen to your precious mother. Don't take that as a threat. Take that as a compliment for how much we want you to coach our team!
Reilly: What!? You're going to hurt mother!? I don't think so! New daddy is a former football player and he is very strong and will beat anyone up who tries to hurt mother! Isn't that right, new daddy?
Cutler: Ah man, if it requires any effort, count me out.
Tollefson: No, new daddy! Please!
Haslam: Sounds like your new daddy isn't going to help, Kevin. Do we have a deal, Kevin? Will you be the Browns' new head coach?
Charles Davis: Don't answer him, Kevin. Jimmy, let's discuss some superheroes that can stop you, Jimmy, Kevin. Let's start with Superman, Jimmy, Kevin. He can shoot lasers out of his eyes, Jimmy, Kevin. Let's discuss Spiderman, Jimmy, Kevin. He can use his webs and swing all over the place to stop villains, Jimmy, Kevin. How about Batman, Jimmy, Kevin? He is rich and has great contraptions to stop bad guys, Jimmy, Kevin. What about the Incredible Hulk, Jimmy, Kevin? He is very strong, Jimmy, Kevin. Let's not forget Aqua Man, Jimmy, Kevin. He is good at, umm, I'm not sure, Jimmy, Kevin. We can talk more superheroes, Jimmy, Kevin, including Pepperoni Pizza Man, Jimmy, Kevin.
Haslam: You know Superman, Spiderman, Batman, Incredible Hulk, Aqua Man and Pepperoni Pizza Man? How can I possibly stop you? Till next time, Kevin. Till next time!
Reilly: Charles Davis, thank you for saving me from coaching the Cleveland Browns, Charles Davis! You are quickly becoming my best friend. We'll be right after this!
Charles Davis (inaudibly): Yes, Kevin, now that I am your best friend, Kevin, my plan is almost complete, Kevin, as you'll discover during the Blemmy ceremony, Kevin, muhahaha, Kevin.
WASHINGTON OFFENSE: I wrote last week that I didn't think there was much of a drop-off between Alex Smith and Colt McCoy. I was remembering McCoy's amazing Monday night victory at Dallas back in 2014. However, I went back and read my recaps of McCoy's every other start. All of them pretty much described McCoy as being "terrible." After reading this, I decided not to bet the Redskins on Thanksgiving, and that turned out to be a great decision.
McCoy really struggled against the Cowboys. Not only was his arm strength a limitation, he also committed too many mistakes, throwing three interceptions. He has an easier matchup this week, given all of the problems the Eagles have in their secondary, but I don't think he'll be able to take advantage of those liabilities.
That said, there's some hope for the Redskins. Adrian Peterson and Jordan Reed should have quality performances, based on what Saquon Barkley and Rhett Ellison did to the Eagles' injury-ravaged defense last week. The Eagles can't cover because of their cornerback injuries, as well as Jordan Hicks' absence, while their front seven isn't generating the same sort of pressure it did last year.
PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Speaking of applying pressure, the Redskins can do that with their defensive front. The "Bama Boys" are talented, while Ryan Kerrigan continues to be a great threat. The Eagles can't pass protect very well, thanks to injuries to key linemen, so Washington should be able to pressure Carson Wentz.
If Wentz still had his great mobility from last year, this wouldn't be a huge issue. However, Wentz isn't scrambling as much as he used to, as it's pretty obvious that he's still not 100 percent as a result of tearing ligaments in his knee. Wentz, however, has talented weapons at his disposal, including Zach Ertz and Alshon Jeffery, both of whom should have strong performances. Golden Tate is a different story, as he and Wentz haven't clicked yet.
Meanwhile, the Eagles have been running the ball more effectively with Josh Adams, but I'm not sure that'll continue to work this week. The Redskins can contain the run pretty well because of their defensive line, which should be able to win the battle in the trenches.
RECAP: This is a tough one. On one hand, I don't want to pick McCoy. On the other hand, the Eagles have won one game by more than seven points this year. They've been a huge disappointment, and they have countless defensive injuries. Expecting them to win by a touchdown or more against a team with a good defense is a tall order.
For me, it comes down to whether I want to back McCoy or not, and I don't. He sucks. I'm picking the Eagles, but I'm not betting on this game.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It's looking like Chris Thompson will play, which is a nice boost for the Redskins. If Alex Smith were starting, I'd definitely be on Washington, but I don't want to be on the same side as Colt McCoy again.
SATURDAY NOTES: The Eagles are still down a bunch of cornerbacks. The Redskins are still down multiple starting offensive linemen. Neither team will be able to exploit those liabilities, though the Eagles have a better chance of doing so.
SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: It now sounds like the Eagles' cornerback situation is much better than expected. That's not going to make me bet them, but they're at least a more-confident zero-unit pick.
MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: As mentioned, the Eagles' cornerback situation is better than expected. Still, two of the top three corners (Ronald Darby, Jalen Mills) are out. I don't think Colt McCoy can fully take advantage of this because of his limitations. That said, he'll be able to attack a Philadelphia linebacking corps missing Jordan Hicks by throwing to Jordan Reed and Chris Thompson, who finally returns from injury this week. If I trusted McCoy, I'd pick the Redskins, but I'm sure he'll find a way to blow this game, as well as the cover.
FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread has dropped to -5.5 at Bookmaker and CRIS. There's definitely sharp action on the Redskins. However, the last time the sharps bet the Redskins on a Monday night, Washington got blown out in New Orleans. I'm still zero on Philadelphia.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 56% (44,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Eagles.
History: Redskins have won 5 of the last 7 meetings.
Redskins are 1-16 ATS in Monday Night Football home games since 1998.
Jay Gruden is 1-4 ATS in his second consecutive road game.
Week 13 NFL Picks - Early Games
New Orleans at Dallas,
Baltimore at Atlanta,
Denver at Cincinnati,
LA Rams at Detroit,
Arizona at Green Bay,
Buffalo at Miami,
Chicago at NY Giants,
Carolina at Tampa Bay,
Indianapolis at Jacksonville,
Cleveland at Houston
Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted
whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.
I don't see a teaser I like. The Ravens +8.5 would make one great leg, but there's no other team to pair them with.
Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.
Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 18, 2020): 1-5 (-$1,430)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 18, 2020): 0-2 (-$575)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 18, 2020): 0-2 (-$855)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 18, 2020): 2-3-1 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 18, 2020): $0
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-2, 50.0% (-$135)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 132-123-6, 52.6% (+$3,280) 2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 43-42-3, 50.6% (-$2,650) 2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515) 2020 Season Over-Under: 137-119-6, 53.5% ($0) 2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$375
1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%) 2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%) 2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%) 2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%) 2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%) 2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%) 2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%) 2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%) 2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585) 2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105) 2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235) 2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880) 2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335) 2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445) 2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825) 2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885) 2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215) 2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780) 2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300) 2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845) 2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%) 2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%) 2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%) 2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%) 2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%) 2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110) 2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510) 2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260) 2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180) 2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715) 2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130) 2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890) 2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820) 2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475) 2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395) 2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670) 2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%) 2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%) 2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%) 2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%) 2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%) 2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420) 2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055) 2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330) 2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790) 2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260) 2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650) 2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970) 2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120) 2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465) 2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595) 2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735) 2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%) 2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%) 2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%) 2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%) 2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%) 2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%) 2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900) 2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860) 2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195) 2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5) 2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135) 2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30) 2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340) 2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0) 2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95) 2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640) 2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225) 2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035 2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775 2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865 2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200 2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590 2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685 2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245 2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855 2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275 2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510 2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495 2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%) 2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400) 2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720) 2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640) 2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810) 2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870) 2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560) 2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900) 2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350) 2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100) 2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780) 2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040) 2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640) 2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,989-2,760-179, 52.0% (+$13,585) Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 953-858-49 (52.6%) Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 452-396-23 (53.3%) Career Over-Under: 2,459-2,413-66 (50.5%) Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-15-1 (61.1%) Career NFL Picks of the Month: 44-29-1 (60.3%)
My Team-by-Team ATS Record This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not
displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.