Fantasy Football: The Things I Learned – Week 11, 2018

By Chet Gresham – @ChetGresham
Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Below, check out my fantasy-centered recaps of key players from this week’s contests. For instance, did a player come back to earth after an aberrant breakout, or were they simply affected by something like game flow?

Ravens 24, Bengals 21
Lamar Jackson started at quarterback with Joe Flacco out and ran the ball an amazing 27 times for 117 yards. He also completed 13-of-19 passes for 150 yards, no touchdowns and one interception. It was unconventional, but the game plan worked for the win. It doesn’t look great for Flacco to be able to go next week against the Raiders, which is another strong matchup. If Jackson had notched a touchdown or two with Sunday’s stats, and he would have had a huge game, so I’m on board against Oakland’s awful defense.

Alex Collins started the game as Baltimore’s lead back and scored on a seven-yard run early, but was ineffective and replaced by Gus Edwards, who ended up running the ball 17 times for 115 yards and a touchdown. Edwards will be a must-pick-up off of waivers this week, as the Ravens have a good schedule for running backs, but we can’t be overly surprised if Collins happens to get the “hot hand” and out-touch Edwards at some point moving forward.

Andy Dalton misses A.J. Green, who could be back next week, but it was good to see the Bengals put up some offense on the Ravens in Baltimore, even though it wasn’t much. Dalton hit John Ross for Ross’ second touchdown in two games, but Ross was also held to 2-of-7 receptions for 27 yards. Tyler Boyd led the Bengals in targets with 11, catching four for 71 yards.

Joe Mixon was stuffed on the ground, rushing 12 times for 14 yards, but he did get into the end zone on one of those carries and caught all three of his targets for 38 yards. He needs more targets in games like this, but I don’t see it happening.

Steelers 20, Jaguars 16
Ben Roethlisberger completed 27-of-47 passes for 314 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions. He also old-man rushed for a one-yard touchdown. At one point late in the third quarter, he had three interceptions and no touchdowns, so I think you need to be thanking whatever deity you ascribe to that he finished as one of the better fantasy plays this week. He heads to Denver next week, and now that he has managed to defy his home/away splits for the most part this season, I think we can feel good about his prospects.

James Conner had one of his worst games of the year, which was capped off by a dropped pass that would have gone for a sure touchdown late in the game. But he did still manage six receptions for his PPR followers. His 49 total yards and no touchdowns hurt though. He should get back on track against Denver next week.

Leonard Fournette must be healthy, as he again had a big workload and ran strongly, putting up 95 yards and a touchdown on 28 carries. He also caught his two targets for 46 more yards. Fournette was used at the end of the game to kill the clock with a lead, but the lack of passing game hurt his chances, as he ran 11 times for just 18 yards in the Jaguars’ last four possessions.

Texans 23, Redskins 21
Deshaun Watson completed 16-of-24 passes for 208 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. This was a bad sign for Watson, who I hoped would come out throwing more after the bye week. His chest injury could easily still be a problem for him and causing the Texans to limit his workload. Or they feel their defense is the strength of the team. Either way, I think we have to lower Watson’s projections until we see him really air it out.

Keke Coutee led the team in targets with nine after returning this week from his hamstring injury. He caught five passes for 77 yards and appears to be ahead of Demaryius Thomas, who only saw one target, which he didn’t catch. The Texans’ schedule is conducive to wide receivers, meaning Coutee should be rostered in all leagues.

The biggest news for Washington was the broken leg of Alex Smith, which weirdly occurred 33 years to the date of Joe Theismann’s broken leg, both grossing out the world by their horribleness. Besides being on the same date, the game also had the same score. None of that matters of course, as Smith’s gruesome injury happened today and wasn’t brought on by any supernatural devices … or was it?

Smith was replaced by Colt McCoy, who completed 6-of-12 passes for 54 yards and a touchdown, plus rushed five times for 35 yards. The touchdown was Jordan Reed’s first since Week 1, but all-in-all, McCoy was his usual dink-and-dunk self, who, like Smith, won’t be able to open up this offense.

Giants 38, Buccaneers 35
Eli Manning threw just one incompletion, completing 17-of-18 passes for 231 yards and two touchdowns. That’s going to hurt that already awful completion rate the Buccaneers allow. Despite the strong line, it’s still an odd amount of passes for a 38-point game, but Ryan Fitzpatrick did throw three interceptions in the first half, including a pick-six, which helped the Giants’ offense get to a lead and into good field position. Manning is still mostly not good and yards after the catch helped his numbers quite a bit. If Tampa Bay had pushed him to throw more, I expect those efficiency stats would have taken a nose dive.

Saquon Barkley was the engine for this offense, rushing an incredible 27 times for 142 yards and two touchdowns and catching two of his three targets for 10 yards and another touchdown. That’s 10 total touchdowns for the rookie to go along with 1,268 total yards. I think we can engrave that Rookie of the Year trophy.

As you might have read two paragraphs ago, Ryan Fitzpatrick threw three interceptions, including a pick-six in the first half, so the Buccaneers replaced him with Jameis Winston in the second half. Winston completed 12-of-16 passes for 199 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. The interception ended the game unfortunately for Tampa Bay, but Winston is likely going to hold onto the job for next week, when he’ll face the 49ers at home in a good matchup.

Peyton Barber rushed 18 times for 106 yards and a touchdown, plus caught two passes for four yards. He has now been a worthwhile fantasy start in three out of 10 games. It is not all Barber’s fault of course, but his numbers aren’t helping many fantasy players, because it is impossible to just start him when he has a good game.

Colts 38, Titans 10
Andrew Luck has now thrown for three or more touchdowns in seven straight games. He will need four more to beat Tom Brady’s record of 10 straight, but at this point, I don’t doubt he can do it after facing the tough defenses of the Bills, the Jaguars and the Titans in three of his last four games. At this point, Luck truly is matchup proof.

T.Y. Hilton went off this week, as he caught all nine of his targets for 155 yards and two touchdowns. The Titans had no answer for him. He had been marginalized a bit since returning from his hamstring injury and appeared to lose some targets to the diverse offense the Colts ran, but it appears the Colts wanted to get him going, and that they did.

Eric Ebron came back to earth this week, as he saw zero targets. His limited time on the field since Jack Doyle’s return was a cause for concern, and that concern proved to be useful if you sat him this week. Ebron will likely score more touchdowns, but he will also likely have duds like this.

Marcus Mariota was forced from this game with an elbow injury, which could be a reoccurrence of his earlier injury. It is difficult to know if he could have come back in a closer game, so we will need to wait on that news. Blaine Gabbert played the second half and could get nothing going. The Titans need Mariota in there if they are going to have a chance to win games.

The offense went nowhere, so there isn’t much good information to garner, but it was interesting to see tight end Jonnu Smith lead the team in targets, receptions and yards, as he caught 6-of-8 for 44 yards. There might be some value in grabbing Smith, but probably not.

Lions 20, Panthers 19
Matthew Stafford continued his unusable fantasy statistics by thowing for 220 yards and one touchdown. But with no healthy pass catchers other than Kenny Golladay to throw to, we got to see what Golladay could be as the clear No. 1 receiver, and it was good. He caught 8-of-14 targets for 113 yards and a touchdown, and despite not always being on the same page as Stafford, Golladay was able to make some spectacular grabs and show what could be in store in the near future.

Kerryon Johnson put up good numbers once again, rushing 15 times for 87 yards and a touchdown, plus catching both his targets for 10 yards, but he had to leave the game with a knee sprain according to Ian Rapoport. At this point, it looks like he could miss a couple games, but we will need to learn more before making any fantasy decisions. Thankfully it wasn’t a season-ender. LeGarrette Blount will likely get the early-down work with Johnson out. Blount ran the ball seven times for one yard on Sunday.

Cowboys 22, Falcons 19
Dak Prescott completed 22-of-32 passes for 208 yards and no touchdowns. He did find the end zone once again on the ground, giving him four rushing touchdowns in his last five games, but unfortunately that matches his passing touchdowns over the last four games. The Cowboys had a lead or were within three points for the whole game, so they went full Ezekiel Elliott instead of opening up the passing game.

Elliott touched the ball 30 times for 201 yards and a touchdown, while the rest of the team scraped together 122 yards.

Matt Ryan completed 24-of-34 passes for 291 yards, one touchdown and one interception. The interception wasn’t on him, but it was the first time he went under 300 yards since Week 5. This Dallas defense has some players.

The only Falcons player to do anything for your fantasy teams was Julio Jones, who has now scored three touchdowns in a row after not getting one for something like three years. This week, he caught 6-of-9 passes for 118 yards and that now not-so-rare touchdown. He has also topped 100 yards in each of his last five games and in seven out of 10 on the year. He is now on pace for 1,852 yards, which crazily would be his second-highest total in a season.

Saints 48, Eagles 7
I’m starting to wonder if Drew Brees will need to finish a game the rest of the season. He sure didn’t need to this week and probably could have sat early in the third quarter, but thankfully for his fantasy backers, he put the throttle down and destroyed the Eagles, as he completed 22-of-30 passes for 363 yards and four touchdowns. He will face the Falcons at home on Thanksgiving Day, and if things go normally, he should easily put up astronomical numbers.

This is what we should call the Tre’Quan Smith game, as he saw 13 targets and after that it was Keith Kirkwood with five, Josh Hill with four and Michael Thomas with four. Smith caught 10 of those for 157 yards and a touchdown, while Thomas was his usual uber-efficient self, catching all four of his targets for 92 yards and a touchdown. I think the Saints wanted to prove that sure, take Michael Thomas out of the game, see how well that works for you.

Carson Wentz completed 19-of-33 passes for 156 yards, zero touchdowns and three interceptions in what was a dominating effort by the Saints on offense and defense. The only noteworthy game came from rookie running back Josh Adams, who rushed seven times for 53 yards and a touchdown, plus caught 3-of-6 passes for 19 yards. The receiving stats weren’t great, but he was second in targets on the team, while Corey Clement saw two targets and Wendell Smallwood none. If that kind of breakdown continues for Adams, his upside is much better than being just the early-down back in a three-headed committee.

Broncos 23, Chargers 22
Case Keenum completed 19-of-32 passes for 205 yards. That’s it. He did well to get his team into field goal range to win it, but as far as fantasy goes, he has only topped 15 points in two games this season.

Phillip Lindsay was the Broncos’ star this week, as he rushed 11 times for 79 yards and two touchdowns and caught 4-of-5 passes for 27 yards. Royce Freeman stole seven rushing attempts from Lindsay, gaining 23 yards and scoring on a short touchdown run. Lindsay might not be a 20-rushing-attempts-per-game guy, but he needs to get 20 touches a game when you consider receptions. I don’t think he will though.

Philip Rivers completed 28-of-43 passes for 401 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. This was his highest yardage game since Week 1 and the first time he threw more than one interception in a game all season. We finally got a game where Rivers was forced to throw the ball, which helped push his fantasy stats up, but the interceptions kept him from a top-five type of day. He likely won’t need to do much next week against Arizona.

Antonio Gates is alive! After 13 receptions for 141 yards and a touchdown through nine games, Gates caught 5-of-7 targets for 80 yards and a touchdown against the Broncos. The 43 pass attempts by Rivers had something to do with Gates’ breakout game, but the Chargers do have a pretty nice tight end schedule to finish the season. I don’t think I can bet on the old man, but he is on the radar again.

Raiders 23, Cardinals 21
Derek Carr completed 19-of-31 passes for 192 yards and two touchdowns as two awful teams played awfully.

Brandon LaFell hurt his Achilles and will be out for the rest of the season. The Raiders are now running out wide receivers whose parents have forgotten their names. Don’t play any Raiders wide receivers unless you hate yourself.

Doug Martin had a decent game going, as he rushed 10 times for 52 yards and caught one pass for six, but he either hurt his ankle or was benched at halftime. I’m going to go with the ankle injury, because the benching seems too weird, even for Gruden.

Josh Rosen completed 9-of-20 passes for 136 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions. So, three of his nine completions went for touchdowns and two of his 11 incompletions were picked off. That’s not good, but it’s also good. Ultimately, it was a poor showing by Rosen despite the three touchdowns and you shouldn’t look at them as a sign of good things to come, at least for this season.

David Johnson saw big-time usage again, as he rushed 25 times for 137 yards and caught 1-of-3 targets for 17 yards. He had a long touchdown run negated by a holding penalty as well. There’s no doubt now that the Cardinals are going to focus their offense around Johnson, and no matter how bad the offense is as a whole, he’s going to put together good statistics.

Bears 25, Vikings 20
Mitchell Trubisky completed 20-of-31 passes for 165 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions. He also ran the ball 10 times for 43 yards. Those 43 yards were the difference between an awful fantasy game and a mediocre one, and against the Vikings, I think we will take mediocre from Trubisky. He doesn’t have much time to get ready for the Lions on Thanksgiving, but he’ll have a much easier matchup.

Taylor Gabriel led the team with nine targets, catching seven for 52 yards, while Anthony Miller was the only offensive player to find the end zone, as he caught 2-of-3 targets for 25 yards and the touchdown. Allen Robinson was second in targets with seven, but Xavier Rhodes is a tough matchup and Robinson only caught three of his targets for 37 yards. The Vikings are a good defense, so these numbers aren’t that significant for, say this Thursday when Chicago plays Detroit, but it does remind us that Chicago spreads the ball out pretty well, making it tough to count on one specific player.

Kirk Cousins completed 30-of-46 passes for 262 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. One of those interceptions was returned for a touchdown, and one of his touchdowns was in garbage time. Overall, it was a poor game for Cousins, who is now 4-12 during primetime games. He is what he is, but in good matchups, he’s going to put up good fantasy stats with two great receivers at his disposal.

Dalvin Cook had nowhere to run in this game and totaled 10 yards on 12 touches, plus lost a fumble. I think we can give him a mulligan this week against the Bears with a deficit all game, but he will need to do something against the Packers next week to help regain some fantasy trust.

For more thoughts, check out Walt’s updated NFL Power Rankings, which will be posted Tuesday morning.

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Fantasy Football: The Things I Learned – Week 11, 2018

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