Fantasy Football: The Things I Learned – Week 4, 2018

By Chet Gresham – @ChetGresham
Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Below, check out my fantasy-centered recaps of key players from this week’s contests. For instance, did a player come back to earth after an aberrant breakout, or were they simply affected by something like game flow?

Bears 48, Buccaneers 10
Mitch Trubisky went medieval on the Buccaneers, throwing for 354 yards and six touchdowns on just 19 completions from 26 attempts. Only 13 completions didn’t go for touchdowns! But, what do we learn from this game other than the Buccaneers are genuinely an awful pass defense? Well, hopefully, it shows us that Trubisky is getting Matt Nagy’s offense better as the season develops, and with a bye coming up, the Bears will have some extra time to work on the playbook, so we could see Trubisky with an even better handle on the offense. I don’t think I can buy into him as a starter in fantasy just yet, but I don’t see why he can’t work his way there this year.

The most significant change in the Chicago offense this week was Tarik Cohen leading the team in targets and carries, while Jordan Howard couldn’t get much going, even with a considerable lead. This development could mean Matt Nagy will be more flexible when attacking a defense by getting Cohen more involved against weak pass defenses while Howard would get more chances against weak run defenses, but there’s also a chance that Cohen is just a better fit for the way Nagy wants the offense to run. Either way, Cohen’s big game today should help him see more work moving forward, and we should remain concerned about Howard’s usage.

Taylor Gabriel has now caught four or more passes in all four games and six and seven in the last two. This week, he exploded by catching all seven of his targets for 104 yards and two touchdowns. We can’t expect big numbers from him, but if this offense can get going and his target share remains near the top of the team, he’ll continue to have value.

The Bears’ defense played well once again, as they sacked the quarterback three times and had three interceptions. Ryan Fitzpatrick couldn’t get anything done with the Bears out to a quick lead and Khalil Mack and friends bearing down on him. Jameis Winston replaced him, but with his team down by 35 points at the half. Winston played okay for the circumstances and will be the starter in Week 6 against Atlanta when the Bucs return from the bye week. With the Falcons’ pass defense in the garbage and also on fire, Winston will have some fantasy appeal in his first start back.

Cowboys 26, Lions 24
Ezekiel Elliott was the story for the Cowboys in this one, as he ran the ball 25 times for 152 yards and caught all four of his targets for an additional 88 yards and a touchdown. Playing Detroit’s awful run defense helps, but it’s good to see him put up huge numbers with very little pass game to help take the heat off him.

Four receivers saw five targets to lead the Cowboys, and nobody topped 53 receiving yards. Without a No. 1 receiver to funnel targets to, there is no reason to play any Dallas wideout in fantasy.

Matthew Stafford had a good game, passing for over 300 yards and completing two touchdowns, both to Golden Tate, who had a big game, catching all eight of his targets for 132 yards and his two touchdowns. Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay were contributors, but playing Dallas is always a slow-down in plays, and with Tate getting such a large share of the yardage and touchdowns, there just wasn’t much to go around. Both Jones and Golladay remain top plays in fantasy.

Kerryon Johnson started the game with a 30-plus yard run, but still shared work with LeGarrette Blount, who couldn’t get anything going, as he ran seven times for 12 yards, while Johnson ran nine times for 55 yards and a touchdown. Johnson’s short touchdown run had him showing off his ability near the end zone, as he destroyed a defender on his way for six points. I don’t know what will happen moving forward, but Johnson better start seeing a more significant percentage of work, because his superiority is all too apparent.

Patriots 38, Dolphins 7
Tom Brady had a nice bounce-back game this week, throwing for 274 yards and three touchdowns. His stats were hurt by two interceptions, which he shouldn’t have thrown, but compared to his last two games, this was a breath of fresh air, and with Julian Edelman returning next week, Brady will get his safety blanket back.

The biggest fantasy news ended up coming from the Patriots’ last two remaining running backs, as both James White and Sony Michel had strong fantasy outings. Michel was the no-doubt early-down back, as he rushed 25 times for 112 yards and a touchdown, while White rushed eight times for 44 yards and a touchdown, plus caught 8-of-10 targets for 68 yards and another score. This situation is helpful to fantasy players, as there really are only two running backs to choose from, and in this offense, two running backs can continue to put up good numbers in the same game. The addition of Edelman could hurt White’s numbers somewhat, but Brady loves White, and he will remain a key component to the offense.

Rob Gronkowski left this game with an ankle injury and didn’t return. The Patriots were up big at the time, so there was no reason to risk injuring him further, but they do have a quick turnaround since they play the Thursday night game. He will likely be a game-time decision.

The Dolphins ran into a team that was more prepared and hungrier for the win at home. Miami didn’t put up a fight, and it was apparent in the fantasy numbers. There really is nothing to learn from this massacre.

Bengals 37, Falcons 36
Andy Dalton continues to put up good numbers, as he’s yet to throw for fewer than two touchdowns in a game and has topped 337 yards passing in his last two. This week, he threw for 337 yards and three touchdowns with one interception against the depleted Falcons pass defense, but did lose a key player in Tyler Eifert, who broke his ankle and will be out for the season. Dalton also gets a great schedule coming up with Miami at home, Pittsburgh at home, at Kansas City, and then back home to face the Bucs. Miami is the only defense there that can even put up a fight.

Tyler Boyd continues to put up good numbers, as this week he caught 11-of-15 targets for 100 yards. And with Eifert out, he’s going to keep seeing good target numbers moving forward.

Atlanta’s defensive woes should continue to push Matt Ryan and his receivers into good usage, and so far that has led to big numbers, as Ryan threw for 419 yards and three touchdowns this week and has now topped 29 fantasy points in each of his last three games. Matchups with Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay in the next two weeks will likely push those numbers up.

Calvin Ridley once again caught two touchdowns to give him four over the last two games, while Julio Jones has three over his previous 20 games. But, we know that Jones will get his, even if he can’t get into the end zone regularly, as seen this week with 9-of-12 receptions for 173 yards, which gave him more fantasy points in PPR than Ridley, who caught the two touchdowns.

Packers 22, Bills 0
Aaron Rodgers looked more mobile this week, but the offense wasn’t clicking, and against the Bills, it really didn’t need to be. If this game were closer, I expect we would have seen more stats out of Rodgers, but there’s no doubt that the Packers need to get their offense on track for when they play better teams.

Aaron Jones again outplayed Jamaal Williams, putting up 82 yards and a touchdown on 12 touches to Williams’ 27 yards on 11 touches. Williams continues to see work, as he’s the better pass blocker, but Green Bay will be hard-pressed to keep Jones’ touches this low with his incredible upside.

Geronimo Allison saw more work this week due to Randall Cobb’s absence due to a hamstring injury. He caught 6-of-11 targets for 80 yards, but had multiple drops and then was forced from the game with a concussion.

Josh Allen was awful in this game, as he took seven sacks, lost a fumble and threw two terrible interceptions. The offense never even had a chance to get going, and as usual, you don’t want anything to do with the Bills in fantasy.

Titans 26, Eagles 23
Marcus Mariota lives! After last week, I didn’t think I’d see Mariota throw the ball more than 15 times, let alone the 43 attempts he took against the Eagles, and I sure didn’t expect him to complete 30 for 344 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. He also made 10 rushing attempts for 46 yards and a touchdown. This healthy Mariota was a fantasy force.

This was also Corey Davis’ coming-out party, as he caught 9-of-15 targets for 161 yards and a touchdown. He had been getting the targets to be useful in fantasy but didn’t have a healthy quarterback throwing him the ball. Now that he does, he should be able to continue to put up good numbers.

Carson Wentz completed 33-of-50 passes for 348 yards and two touchdowns and looked good doing so. The return of Alshon Jeffery helped, but Wentz seemed to be entirely back to his old self and should be a fantasy start in any matchup moving forward.

Zach Ertz has yet to score a touchdown, but has 31 receptions through his first four games! This team will throw the ball a ton, and Ertz is the No. 1 target so far. If you can pry him away from someone who isn’t happy with his zero touchdowns, do it because he’ll get into the end zone.

Alshon Jeffery’s return was a productive one, as he caught 8-of-9 targets for 105 yards and a touchdown. Wentz isn’t afraid to throw him the ball in traffic, because he knows he has the advantage whenever it looks like a 50/50 ball.

Texans 37, Colts 34
Deshaun Watson completed 29-of-42 passes for 375 yards, two touchdowns and one interception, plus made six rushing attempts for 41 yards and another score. With so many huge games this week, that has him at just sixth overall in quarterback scoring with Patrick Mahomes yet to play, but it was still a huge fantasy game and his best of the season. The addition of a healthy Keke Coutee didn’t hurt either.

Will Fuller had to leave this game with yet another hamstring injury, but he, of course, caught a touchdown before leaving! But unlike other games without Fuller, Watson didn’t have to focus entirely on DeAndre Hopkins because he had rookie Coutee to throw to. Watson took that option a lot, as Coutee caught 11-of-15 targets for 109 yards. Hopkins went off as well, but the fact that this offense got a third receiver going is excellent news. Now, we’ll have to wait to see when Fuller can return, but until then, Coutee should be a definite add in fantasy.

Andrew Luck completed 40-of-62 passes for 464 yards and four touchdowns, setting career highs for attempts and yards in a game. This is the Colts offense, which can’t run the ball, and it worked well, as they put up 34 points in the loss. Luck’s arm strength may not be quite what it was, but we did see him open it up today and help T.Y, Hilton with two deep receptions. It was an excellent sign for Luck’s fantasy value moving forward.

Hilton caught 4-of-6 passes for 115 yards, but he had to leave in the fourth quarter with a hamstring injury. That pushed Chester Rogers and Nyheim Hines up as the target leaders with 11 each, but Hines was the red-zone star, as he caught two touchdowns and looked good doing so. He’ll have ups and downs in this offense, but with Hilton and Jack Doyle hurting, and a Thursday night game against the Patriots coming up, Hines will likely see a lot of targets and be worth a PPR add.

Jaguars 31, Jets 12
Blake Bortles completed 29-of-38 passes for 388 yards with two touchdowns and an interception, looking much better than he did last week. When he’s on, he can sling the ball, and when he’s off, he makes too many bad decisions. The trouble in fantasy is that he’s hard to count on, and in this offense, we can’t rely on a single receiver to see the bulk of the targets no matter how well Bortles is playing. This week, Dede Westbrook led the way in targets and receptions, catching 9-of-13 for 130 yards, while Donte Moncrief was second with just five targets, although a 67-yard touchdown elevated him in fantasy. And Keelan Cole, who has shown tremendous ability, caught 2-of-3 targets for 15 yards. I don’t want to even mess with these guys in fantasy.

Leonard Fournette was a workhorse early, as he saw 11 carries and one reception before he had to leave in the second quarter after reaggravating his hamstring injury. He was able to return, but the game was so out of hand that Jacksonville gave him the rest. Hopefully, that is true, but it’s going to be tough to feel confident about Fournette until we see him last a full game.

T.J. Yeldon took over for Fournette and scored two touchdowns while racking up 100 yards on 21 touches. If Fournette misses any time, Yeldon will get a good matchup with Kansas City next week.

Sam Darnold completed 17-of-34 passes for 167 yards and a touchdown, and never could get anything going against the stout Jaguars defense. This was about what we can expect out of him in tough matchups right now, and that means the whole offense will have trouble putting up any fantasy numbers like they did this week.

Raiders 45, Browns 42
This was the definition of a barnburner, as these two teams combined for over 900 yards and nine touchdowns. Derek Carr put up his best fantasy numbers of the season, as he threw for 437 yards and four touchdowns while adding two interceptions. It was a good sign, as he hadn’t thrown for multiple touchdowns in a game this season.

Amari Cooper did his Jekyll-and-Hyde bit this week and caught eight passes for 128 yards and a touchdown after catching two passes for 17 yards last week in Miami. In Weeks 1 and 3, he totaled three receptions for 26 yards and no touchdowns, and in Weeks 2 and 4, he totaled 18 receptions for 244 yards and a touchdown. So, I guess we sit him against the Chargers next week and then play him against the Seahawks in Week 6!

Jared Cook went off for eight receptions on 13 targets for 110 yards and two touchdowns. He is finally looking like he could have some consistency, at least tight end consistency.

Baker Mayfield didn’t have a good fantasy day, but he did look the part of a fantasy quarterback. A couple of fumbles and two not-really-his-fault interceptions killed his shot at okay fantasy numbers, but so did multiple drops by his receivers. The good news is that he gets the ball downfield and makes things happen. Unfortunately, the Ravens come to town next week.

Carlos Hyde was the workhorse, rushing 22 times for 82 yards and a touchdown, while Nick Chubb rushed three times for 105 yards and two touchdowns. I doubt we see Chubb cut into Hyde’s work anytime soon, but there’s no doubt that Chubb is a player who could break out if given the shot.

Seahawks 20, Cardinals 17
Russell Wilson completed 19-of-26 passes for 172 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions. You can’t say he had a bad game, but he was very much a game-manager and did nothing in fantasy. He rushed four times for 21 yards, but that is his highest rushing output on the season. Hopefully Doug Baldwin will help out, but until we see Wilson pushing to run more or topping 300 yards passing again, he has to be downgraded.

Mike Davis got the start with Chris Carson a late scratch, and he rushed 21 times for 101 yards and two touchdowns while adding four receptions for 23 yards. Rashaad Penny was still the backup, and despite a decent game with 49 rushing yards on nine carries, he’s behind Davis and Carson.

Josh Rosen completed 15-of-27 passes for 180 yards and one touchdown, looking pretty good while doing so. He had a Chad Williams touchdown overturned due to his foot being out of bounds, and J.J. Nelson and Larry Fitzgerald both dropped touchdowns. Rosen is not going to be asked to throw a ton if the team can help it, so his upside will remain low, but this was a good start for the rookie.

David Johnson rushed 21 times for 71 yards and a touchdown, plus caught 3-of-4 targets for 41 yards. The per-carry numbers are not good, but the usage is much better than it has been. In this offense, his upside will remain capped, but the Cardinals are trying to get him the ball more, and he’s managed three touchdowns over four games. He’s no longer on par with the Todd Gurleys of the world, but he should continue to be useful in fantasy, and if Josh Rosen can get this offense going or at least take a step or two toward going, Johnson’s ceiling should get higher.

Saints 33, Giants 18
This was not the best Drew Brees fantasy game you’ll see, as he completed 18-of-32 passes for 217 yards, no touchdowns and no interceptions. On the day, the Saints produced 389 total yards, which 181 of were through Alvin Kamara, who rushed in all three of their touchdowns. Kamara was his usual fantastic self, just on the ground more than through the air this week. He now has six touchdowns on the season, and amazingly, he has two games without a touchdown.

Eli Manning completed 31-of-41 passes for 255 yards and one touchdown, as he again was the check-down king. Sterling Shepard led the Giants in receptions and yards by catching all 10 of his targets for 77 yards and a touchdown. That’s an easy yards per reception to figure out, yep, move the decimal and that’s 7.7 yards per reception. That’s not going to cut it, as well as Odell Beckham Jr.’s seven receptions for 60 yards. This New Orleans defense had been getting gashed through the air, especially deep, but Manning doesn’t want to test defenses deep, even with one of the best receivers on earth.

Chargers 29, 49ers 27
Philip Rivers completed 25-of-39 passes for 250 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. It was a strong game, but if Patrick Mahomes and/or Case Keenum can pass him, he won’t even be in the top-12 for quarterback scoring. This has been a crazy week and first month for passing statistics in the NFL.

The big fantasy game once again came from Melvin Gordon, who rushed 15 times for 104 yards and caught 7-of-10 targets for 55 yards and a touchdown. He’s been a fantasy beast so far this year due to his receiving ability, but it was good to see him top 100 yards rushing. Next week, he gets another great matchup at home against Oakland.

Mike Williams fell back to earth this week, as he only saw three targets and caught just one for 15 yards. It seems that after Gordon and Keenan Allen, we can’t trust in any consistent usage.

C.J. Beathard completed 23-of-37 passes for 298 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. He never really tested the Chargers’ defense deep, and that will likely be a common theme moving forward. His primary target was George Kittle, who saw eight passes and caught six for 125 yards and a touchdown. The touchdown was an 82-yard catch-and-run, and something we can’t count on happening again with Beathard’s dink-and-dunk ways, but it does appear that Kittle will still be a top target with Beathard at quarterback.

Marquise Goodwin and Dante Pettis both had to leave this game with injuries, which helped Pierre Garcon see the second-most targets with seven, which he caught four of for 52 yards. There isn’t much upside for any of these guys with Beathard’s inability to stretch the field and play the sidelines.

Ravens 26, Steelers 14
Joe Flacco completed 28-of-42 passes for 363 yards and two touchdowns, as he ended with his most fantasy points in a game this season. It helped that he was playing Pittsburgh’s pitiful pass defense, but there’s no doubt the addition of John Brown has helped take the lid off this offense and should continue to let Flacco have a higher floor than he has had in his career.

Brown only caught three passes on seven targets, but he made them count, totaling 116 yards and a touchdown. Michael Crabtree saw one more target, and while he also only caught three, his totaled just 29 yards and no touchdowns. Brown has established himself as the No. 1 receiver.

Alex Collins caught a three-yard touchdown early in the game, but then lost a goal-line fumble, his second of the year. He was in Harbaugh’s doghouse after that, and I expect we’ll see Javorius Allen continue to handle goal-line work more often than not.

The Steelers couldn’t do anything on the ground, and Ben Roethlisberger appeared off most of the night except on his lone touchdown throw to Antonio Brown.

Vance McDonald continued to play well, catching all five of his targets for 62 yards, tying Brown for the team lead in yards, which shows you how well this Baltimore defense was playing.

For more thoughts, check out Walt’s updated NFL Power Rankings, which will be posted Tuesday morning.

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Fantasy Football: The Things I Learned – Week 4, 2018

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