Fantasy Football: The Things I Learned – Week 1, 2018

By Chet Gresham – @ChetGresham
Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Below, check out my fantasy-centered recaps of key players from this week’s contests. For instance, did a player come back to earth after an aberrant breakout, or were they simply affected by something like game flow?

Bengals 34, Colts 23
Andy Dalton was efficient against the Colts’ poor pass defense, but didn’t have a breakout fantasy game, as he threw for 243 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. He remains a good streaming option, but isn’t someone you want to rely on week-to-week just yet.

The good news for the Bengals’ offense and for Joe Mixon’s fantasy backers was his usage and output. He saw 17 carries for 95 yards and a touchdown, plus caught 5-of-7 targets for 54 yards, while Giovani Bernard touched the ball just two times for nine yards. We have to remember Mixon was facing the Colts’ defense, but his usage over Bernard is a great sign moving forward.

John Ross scored a touchdown in this game, but only had two targets, while A.J. Green, Mixon, Tyler Boyd and Tyler Eifert all had more. Ross will have his good fantasy days, but we’ll need to see a real effort from the Bengals to up his targets before investing in him.

Andrew Luck put together a decent game after a 2-year layoff, completing a massive 39 passes on 53 attempts for 319 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. With a weak offensive line, Frank Reich implemented a quick-and-short passing game that Luck played well within. The Bengals aren’t slouches defensively, so this is a good start for his fantasy outlook.

Luck completed passes to nine different players and gave four players nine or more targets, but nobody topped 60 yards receiving. The low yardage per pass attempt was due to the quick-passing attack, but I do expect in better matchups and as Luck and company get used to the new quick-hitting offense, the yardage upside will come.

T.Y. Hilton and Jack Doyle led with 11 and 10 targets, with Hilton finding the end zone, but Ryan Grant was the receptions leader, as he caught 8-of-9 targets for 59 yards. There’s no easy takeaway here with 53 pass attempts and 39 completions, especially when you add in that Nyheim Hines pulled out 7-of-9 targets for 33 yards, but there does appear to be some PPR value with Grant and maybe Hines moving forward.

Steelers 21, Browns 21
This was an ugly game in the rain, but we saw Le’Veon Bell’s backup James Conner have a coming-out party, rushing 31 times for 135 yards and two touchdowns and catching 5-of-6 targets for 57 more yards. He did lose a critical fumble, but that was par for the course with this Steelers team in Cleveland. As long as Bell is out, Conner will have top-10 upside.

Ben Roethlisberger threw three interceptions and fumbled twice on strip sacks. It was an ugly day, but he’s had them before and come back to put up huge numbers. He remains a better start at home, and next week he gets a poor Kansas City pass defense at home, where he’ll likely be a must-start.

JuJu Smith-Schuster continues to prove that he’s a star in this league, as he caught 5-of-8 targets for 119 yards. Antonio Brown will always take precedent in the target hierarchy, but Smith-Schuster will continue to see good looks with Brown on the field, and Smith-Schuster’s ability pushes his upside higher and higher.

Tyrod Taylor completed just 15-of-40 passes for 197 yards with one touchdown and one interception, but added 77 yards and a touchdown on the ground to give him a strong fantasy day. The rain and wind didn’t help his passing, so we can give him a slight break there, and his rushing ability was exactly what we need out of him in fantasy, especially when the passing game isn’t working. Baker Mayfield isn’t going anywhere and will always be a threat to take over, but Taylor remains a good fantasy player.

Jarvis Landry proved he isn’t just a short-passing maven, as he caught 7-of-15 targets for 106 yards and was used all over the field. He was the no-doubt top target for Taylor with eight targets, which correlates with reports from this summer and preseason. Josh Gordon was eased back in this week, so we should see him start to cut into Landry’s targets a bit, but those two should be able to help each other and make for a strong fantasy tandem.

Carlos Hyde was the lead back with 22 carries for 62 yards and a touchdown with one reception for three yards on two targets, while Nick Chubb had three carries for 21 yards and Duke Johnson had five carries for 17 yards and caught just 1-of-6 targets for eight yards. We could see some movement in these workloads as the season goes along, but it looks like Hyde will be the lead back until further notice and Chubb and Johnson will hurt each other’s numbers.

Jaguars 20, Giants 15
The big news for the Jaguars is that Leonard Fournette had to leave this game with a hamstring injury. Fournette was on pace for a strong game, as he had nine carries for 41 yards, plus had caught all three of his targets for 14 yards, when he had to leave toward the end of the second quarter. T.J. Yeldon took over for him, rushing 14 times for 51 yards and catching 3-of-7 targets for 18 yards and a touchdown. Yeldon is a waiver-wire add this week, as Corey Grant only touched the ball once for three yards.

Blake Bortles wasn’t good, and he was especially bad after Fournette left. Bortles needs Fournette’s strong presence as a runner to help open up his passing game, and against the Giants, Bortles completed 18-of-33 passes for 176 yards, a touchdown and an interception. He did rush four times for 42 yards, which is a nice sign, but we’ll have to wait until he gets into one of his good stretches before he becomes a streamable quarterback again.

Dede Westbrook led all the receivers in targets and receptions, as he caught 5-of-6 for 51 yards. He appeared to be Bortles’ go-to receiver at times, but all-in-all, it wasn’t a game in which any receiver set himself apart, reminding us that the Jaguars passing game will have trouble being consistent and giving one receiver the bulk of the targets.

The good news for the Giants is that Odell Beckham Jr. is back and is as good as ever. He caught 11-of-15 targets for 111 yards and had other opportunities thwarted by Eli Manning missing him. We can’t fix Manning’s ability, but to put this kind of game on Jalen Ramsey and company shows us that there’s no team that can stop Beckham completely.

Saquon Barkley had trouble early on against the Jaguars’ stout defense, which wasn’t helped by the Giants’ subpar offensive line, but he did break out on a spectacular 68-yard touchdown run, showing that he truly is a special player. He ended up rushing 18 times for 106 yards and a touchdown and catching 2-of-6 targets for 22 more yards. It was a strong start to his career against a top defense, and there’s no reason to not be happy you drafted him this year.

Wayne Gallman had to leave the game with a knee injury, but says he will be ready to go next week. He was playing well ahead of Jonathan Stewart and would see the most work if Barkley were to be injured.

Vikings 24, 49ers 16
Kirk Cousins completed 20-of-36 passes for 244 yards and two touchdowns in his first start with the Vikings. It was a strong debut, and his play looked even better than the stats. With two top-15 wide receivers and a strong running game, he’s going to be one of the more consistent fantasy quarterbacks in the league.

Trying to choose between Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs is tough, but it appears that Thielen, at least to start this season, is Cousins’ main target, as he looked Thielen’s way 12 times to Diggs’ six. Of course, Diggs caught a touchdown and Thielen didn’t, but Cousins loves throwing to his slot receiver, and as long as Thielen continues to see a lot of work from there, I expect him to lead the way in targets.

Dalvin Cook rushed 16 times for 40 yards and caught 6-of-7 targets for 55 yards, and he showed that he is all the way back from his injury. Latavius Murray did see 11 rushing attempts for 42 yards, but Cook was the lead back and his reception numbers are something that should give fantasy players a lot of hope for a big season.

Kyle Rudolph caught a touchdown, but also only saw two targets. The 49ers’ defense was strong against tight ends last season, but two targets is not an integral part of the offense. He’s always going to be a good red-zone target, but he’ll need more usage to be a fantasy asset.

Jimmy Garoppolo completed 15-of-33 passes for 261 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions while taking his first loss as a starter. It wasn’t a good game by any stretch of the imagination, but he also had flashes in which he looked like he could live up to his hype. Playing in Minnesota against one of the best defenses in the league is also a real reason for his poor overall play. I think we can feel good about him in advantageous matchups and will need to see more from him when taking on tough defenses.

Alfred Morris led the way to start this game, but Matt Breida was more involved in the second half. That could have been because the 49ers were trailing and wanted a better receiving back, or because Morris had fumbled at the goal line, or both. Neither was able to put up great numbers against this Minnesota defense, but Breida had a better per-touch average and didn’t fumble. I expect the two will continue to split work though.

Marquise Goodwin had to leave this game due to a quad injury. He did return for a couple of series, but was then taken out again. It’s good that he was able to return, but we’ll need to keep an eye on his status for next week. While he was out, Dante Pettis took over for him and made a pretty touchdown grab and caught 2-of-5 targets for 61 yards and that touchdown. If Goodwin does end up missing any time, Pettis would be someone to check out on the waiver wire.

Patriots 27, Texans 20
Tom Brady got off to a slow start this week, but as usual, he finished with strong counting stats as he completed 26-of-39 passes for 277 yards, three touchdowns and an interception.

Rob Gronkowski was the top fantasy player for New England, as he caught 7-of-8 targets for 123 yards and a touchdown. His numbers aren’t surprising, but the fact that Chris Hogan only caught 1-of-5 targets for 11 yards was. Hogan and Gronkowski looked to be the top-2 receivers in this offense, but Hogan was out-targeted and “out-fantasy-pointed” by Phillip Dorsett, who caught all seven of his targets for 66 yards and a touchdown. Hogan is still New England’s No. 1 wide receiver, and I expect him to bounce back, but Dorsett brings some target competition into the equation.

Rex Burkhead was the lead back, rushing 18 times for 64 yards and catching 1-of-3 targets for five yards. The usage was nice, but the results weren’t. James White out-targeted him and also caught a touchdown, which pushed him up in fantasy despite 10 fewer touches. This backfield is one we need to continue reevaluating based on opponent, injuries and workload. Sony Michel will likely be a factor at some point, which could bog down our evaluation process even more.

Jeremy Hill took a helmet to his knee and was ruled out quickly. That’s not a good sign and could push Sony Michel into playing time next week.

Deshaun Watson completed 17-of-34 passes for 176 yards, one touchdown and one interception, plus rushed eight times for 40 yards. His numbers reflect how bad his offense looked. The offensive line is a sieve, and without Will Fuller or a good tight end, DeAndre Hopkins is Houston’s only play-making receiver at the moment. How worried should those who drafted Watson be? I’ll say “slightly” for now. Going into Foxborough isn’t the easiest task, especially when Belichick and company get as much time as they want to game plan. The offensive line is what I’m most concerned about, and that isn’t going to magically get better. The Texans will take on the Titans next week, who were just smoked by Kenny Stills for a big two-touchdown game. I expect a better showing.

Buccaneers 48, Saints 40
Ryan Fitzpatrick completed 21-of-28 passes for 417 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions while rushing 12 times for 36 yards and a touchdown. What in the name of Fitzmagic is going on here? This came against a New Orleans defense that, coming into the game, looked to be, at worst, above average. Fitzpatrick was amazing in this game. His throws were all on-target as the Saints defenders looked like they were just following guys around like puppies. Fitzpatrick has had games like this before, so it’s not a complete shock, but he was way too risky to bet your fantasy team on him doing it again. He’ll take on the Eagles next week and should come back to earth, or not.

DeSean Jackson and Mike Evans could do no wrong with Fitzpatrick throwing them dimes. Together, they caught 12-of-12 targets for 293 yards and three touchdowns, with Jackson getting the double-dip into the touchdown category. Evans had been shut down by Marshon Lattimore last year in both of their games, but there was nothing the Saints could do to stop these two on Sunday.

Unfortunately for Jackson, he left the game late with a concussion and was also dealing with a shoulder injury. If he has to miss any time, Chris Godwin is a strong add in fantasy. He looked good today, catching 3-of-4 targets for 41 yards and a touchdown, but the thought that he could overtake Jackson in the offense without an injury is overstated.

Drew Brees was just as good as the great Ryan Fitzpatrick in this one, completing 37-of-45 passes for 439 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. This is the Brees of old putting up huge numbers because his defense can’t stop anyone. He was due for more touchdowns this season just based on the percentages, but completing 37 passes for 439 yards and three touchdowns is something we didn’t see from him last season because he didn’t need to do it. The Saints’ defense is better than this, and I expect things will get on track, but Brees is still one of the best in the business.

Alvin Kamara remains good. He rushed eight times for 29 yards and two touchdowns, plus caught 9-of-12 target for 112 yards and another touchdown. Mike Gillislee only saw three touches, and on one of those, he fumbled and the ball was returned for a touchdown. He is nearly impossible to stop, however, and will continue to see the bulk of the running back work while Mark Ingram is out.

Michael Thomas set a franchise record with 16 receptions and did it with just 17 targets. He turned those receptions into 180 yards and a touchdown. Last season, he had bad touchdown luck, and the thought was that we’d see that change this year and so far so good. Enjoy the ride.

Ravens 47, Bills 3
Joe Flacco is healthier than last season and has a bunch of new and good receivers to throw to. It showed this week against Buffalo, as he completed 25-of-34 passes for 236 yards and three touchdowns before being rested. He completed touchdowns to each of the Ravens’ free agent-wide receiver signings: Michael Crabtree, John Brown and Willie Snead. None topped six targets or 50 yards, but they also were rested for a big chunk of the game in the blowout. I don’t expect a bunch of big games like this, but it is a good sign for Crabtree’s and Brown’s upsides this year.

Alex Collins got off to a hot start with an eight-yard touchdown run early, but then watched as Flacco threw the ball more than we expected against a pass defense that was one of the best last season. Collins also lost a fumble and rode the pine for a bit and then was rested in the blowout. Things really couldn’t have gone much more downhill for his fantasy day after his touchdown, but he’s still the lead back and the Ravens will run the ball.

The Bills mustered just 100 total yards of offense and replaced their quarterback at halftime. They won’t always play the Ravens, but there is nothing to give us hope that they’ll put up consistent fantasy numbers anytime soon. LeSean McCoy was barely used in this game, rushing seven times for 22 yards, but he’s still the best fantasy hope, as they’ll have to run the ball with their current quarterback situation.

Dolphins 27, Titans 20
Ryan Tannehill completed 20-of-28 passes for 230 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions, accumulating 75 yards on one touchdown pass to Kenny Stills. Tannehill wasn’t asked to do much in this one, but did manage to connect with Stills on both touchdowns. Tannehill’s upside remains low.

Stills only had five targets, but made those count, catching four for 106 yards and two touchdowns. Jakeem Grant and Danny Amendola had more targets with seven and six respectively, while Albert Wilson had four. Right now, Miami’s passing game doesn’t look ripe for fantasy points, as the targets are being spread out too thin and DeVante Parker could be back next week against the Jets. Stills showed what he can do on limited targets, and I expect he’ll be the best receiver on the Dolphins all season, so his targets should rise as they need to throw more.

Kenyan Drake touched the ball 17 times to Frank Gore’s nine touches, but Gore had 61 total yards to Drake’s 66. Drake will continue to see the most work, but his upside will be hurt by Gore.

Marcus Mariota had to leave this game due to an elbow injury, but before he left, he threw two interceptions. Then his backup, Blaine Gabbert, came in and threw one himself. This is a situation to monitor, but at the moment, you probably don’t want Mariota anywhere near your fantasy team.

Besides Mariota’s injury, the Titans lost Delanie Walker for the season with a dislocated ankle that you probably shouldn’t look up on the internet. His backup, Jonnu Smith, is talented and worth an add in deeper leagues.

Derrick Henry ran the ball 10 times for 26 yards. For those who don’t like the math, that isn’t good. He had rushed eight times before Dion Lewis even saw the ball, but when he did, Lewis got a lot of work and did well, as he rushed 16 times for 75 yards and a touchdown and caught 5-of-8 targets for 35 yards. The fact that Lewis could do this while the passing game was awful is a good sign, but Henry isn’t going to just be demoted now. We will see this committee fluctuate, but Lewis has taken the lead.

Chiefs 38, Chargers 28
The Patrick Mahomes era has begun and is glorious, so far. He was fun to watch, flicking the ball with ease for chunk-yardage gains and making plays with his feet. The Chargers are a good pass defense, yet he went in there and played like a veteran, completing 15-of-27 passes for 256 yards and four touchdowns, plus tacking on five rushes for 21 yards. He’s not going to complete 70 percent of his passes, but he’s going to make big plays with that arm all season.

A chunk of those big plays are going to go to Tyreek Hill, who looked unstoppable with Mahomes getting him the ball. He caught 7-of-8 targets for 169 yards and two touchdowns, plus returned a punt for a touchdown. With Mahomes’ arm and Hill’s speed, these two are going to be scary.

Philip Rivers completed 34-of-51 passes for 424 yards, three touchdowns and an interception as he tried to make up ground after getting into an early deficit. Rivers also had two touchdowns dropped by Tyrell Williams and Travis Benjamin, but these are the Chargers we are talking about, so that’s nothing new. Rivers is still good, and with Keenan Allen as the base stud and two strong receiving backs, Rivers is going to stay fantasy relevant.

Keenan Allen caught 8-of-11 targets for 108 yards and a touchdown, which is not surprising in the least. It’s good to see him get into the end zone, as last year, he led all wide receivers in red-zone targets, but finished with just six touchdowns.

Melvin Gordon rushed 15 times for 64 yards and caught 9-of-13 targets for 102 yards, and his backup, Austin Ekeler, had five carries for 39 yards and caught all five of his targets for 87 yards and a touchdown. Ekeler looked great, but Gordon looked pretty good himself. Kansas City’s linebackers are going to have trouble with receiving backs this year, so store that somewhere for later. Ekeler’s numbers look great, but he’s still just the backup and was out-touched 24-to-10. If Gordon were to go down, Ekeler would be in line for strong PPR lines, but as it is, Gordon remains the man.

Panthers 16, Cowboys 8
Cam Newton didn’t have a good passing day, as he completed 17-of-26 attempts for 161 yards and no touchdowns or interceptions, but he did lead the team in rushing with 13 carries for 58 yards and a touchdown. His rushing ability usually keeps him from having an awful fantasy day, and it appears he’s set to run as usual this season.

Christian McCaffrey didn’t get the workload we were led to believe he would from preseason, as he rushed just 10 times for 50 yards, but he did see nine targets, of which he caught six for 45 yards. He ended up leading the Panthers in targets, receptions and yards, which unfortunately isn’t saying much good about the passing game, but it does say something about his role in the passing game.

McCaffrey did likely see more targets due to Greg Olsen going down with a foot injury, which unfortunately is the same foot Olsen had the stress fracture in last season. I doubt we see him back anytime soon, and that means McCaffrey should continue to be a PPR stud, no matter his carries.

Redskins 24, Cardinals 6
Adrian Peterson lives! The old man rushed 26 times for 96 yards and a touchdown, plus made two receptions for 70 yards. He did lose a fumble, which he is wont to do, but this was a great performance overall. We’ll see how long his body can hold up, but keep riding him into Week 2 when he takes on the soft Indianapolis defense.

Peterson’s running mate Chris Thompson also had a big game, rushing five times for 65 yards and catching 6-of-7 targets for 63 yards and a touchdown. Thompson and Alvin Kamara are two of the few running backs in the NFL who you can project for 10 to 15 touches and know they’ll be worth starting.

Jordan Reed caught 4-of-5 targets for 48 yards and a touchdown. He likely would have seen more targets if Washington didn’t have such a big lead. The same can be said for Alex Smith, who had no trouble finding open receivers and completed 21-of-30 passes for 255 yards and two touchdowns. If Arizona had put up a fight, I’m guessing the receiving numbers would have been pushed way up.

Sam Bradford completed three passes for 11 yards in the first half, and despite tacking on more yardage, things didn’t get much better in the second half. Overall, he passed for 153 yards, with 76 of those going to Larry Fitzgerald. It was a sad display.

David Johnson didn’t do much either, with just nine carries for 37 yards and a late goal-line touchdown and five receptions on nine targets for 30 yards. The touchdown saved his fantasy backers, but overall, this isn’t a standard David Johnson line. He needs the offense as a whole to improve so he can get more touches, but Bradford or Josh Rosen might not be up to the task.

Broncos 27, Seahawks 24
Phillip Lindsay rushed 15 times for 71 yards and caught 2-of-3 targets for 31 yards and a touchdown. Those 15 carries are the same amount Royce Freeman had on his way to 71 rushing yards. Freeman did close out the game and appeared to be the nominal lead back, but Lindsay continues to impress, and this backfield is likely going to fluctuate until something breaks. The one thing we do know is that Devontae Booker is now the third back on the depth chart.

Case Keenum completed 25-of-39 passes for 329 yards, three touchdowns and three interceptions. He wasn’t exactly sharp in this game, but did finish it off well and gave his receivers a fighting chance, unlike recent Broncos quarterbacks.

Emmanuel Sanders was Keenum’s favorite wide receiver this summer, and that kept going into Week 1, as Sanders caught 10-of-11 targets for 135 yards and a touchdown. Demaryius Thomas only had one fewer target, but caught six for 63 yards and a touchdown. There will likely be times that Thomas outscores Sanders in fantasy this season, but overall, Sanders has the upper hand this year.

Russell Wilson completed 19-of-33 passes for 298 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions, and added just two rushing attempts for five yards. He lost his best receiver early in the game when Doug Baldwin went down with a knee injury, but Wilson still managed to put together a decent fantasy day. Wilson is going to be frustrating to watch, as he has a weak offensive line and supporting receiving crew, but he usually finds a way.

Chris Carson looked good in this game, but only touched the ball 10 times, as he rushed seven times for 51 yards and caught 3-of-5 targets for 28 yards. Rashaad Penny ended up with more touches, as he rushed seven times for eight yards and caught 4-of-5 targets for 35 yards. It looks like Seattle does care a little bit about where it drafted Penny and believes he needs to get his touches, but Carson looked like the better lead back, while Penny was more suited for third-down duties for now. But for now, we have to believe they will continue to split touches and hurt each other’s upside.

Brandon Marshall led the Seahawks in targets with six that he then turned into three receptions for 46 yards and a touchdown, and Tyler Lockett caught a 51-yard touchdown to make up the bulk of his three receptions for 59 yards on four targets. Marshall appeared to be Wilson’s favorite target, and with Baldwin’s knee injury, he is worth a pickup, but the same is true of Lockett.

Packers 24, Bears 23
Aaron Rodgers is from another planet. After getting carted off with a knee injury in the second quarter and his team getting down 17 points, he returned to lead his team back for a win, completing 20-of-30 passes for 286 yards and three touchdowns. As he picked the Bears apart, he was limping around, making for some high drama and a more-than-exciting game.

Rodgers’ game-winner went to his old receiver Randall Cobb for a 75-yard touchdown. Cobb also led the team in targets and receptions, as he caught 9-of-10 for 142 yards and the touchdown. Cobb had been rumored to be on the trade block, so this game should cement his status.

Mitchell Trubisky completed 23-of-35 passes for 171 yards and rushed seven times for 32 yards and a touchdown. The Bears got out to a fast start aided by Kahlil Mack’s interception return for a touchdown, but it did feel as if Matt Nagy’s offense was working well for Trubisky as he hit Allen Robinson early. Then, the big cheesy wave of Rodgers and his Willis Reed-like return to the game seemed to put the Bears back on their heels. Trubisky will have his moments, but he doesn’t look quite ready for primetime just yet.

Jordan Howard rushed 15 times for 82 yards and caught all five of his passes for 25 yards. He out-touched Tarik Cohen 20-7 and did enough in the passing game to keep PPR players alive. He was the focal point of the offense and will likely remain that along with Allen Robinson, who might end up being the only two fantasy players worth rostering on this team.

For more thoughts, check out Walt’s updated NFL Power Rankings, which will be posted Tuesday morning.

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