Fantasy Football: The Things I Learned – Week 17, 2018

By Chet Gresham – @ChetGresham
Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Below, check out my fantasy-centered recaps of key players from this week’s contests. For instance, did a player come back to earth after an aberrant breakout, or were they simply affected by something like game flow?

Texans 20, Jaguars 3
DeAndre Hopkins led the team with 16 targets, catching 12 for 147 yards, while DeShaun Watson completed 25-of-35 passes for 234 yards and rushed 13 times for 66 yards and a touchdown. Without Will Fuller, Demaryius Thomas and Keke Coutee, Hopkins was really the only receiver worth targets, and he proved up to the task as usual.

Going into next season, Hopkins will remain a stud fantasy receiver, and Watson’s upside is extremely high. If Watson and his receivers can stay healthy, there’s nothing holding him back from being a top-three fantasy quarterback next year.

The Jaguars led by Blake Bortles in a meaningless game, fared about as well as you would expect. Jacksonville will likely let Bortles go a year too late, and next season will likely be ugly again, with a rookie or retread quarterback at the helm.

Falcons 34, Buccaneers 32
Matt Ryan and Julio Jones did their usual, as Ryan threw for 378 yards and two touchdowns, and Jones caught 9-oof-13 passes for 138 yards and one touchdown. Calvin Ridley ended the season with 10 touchdowns, as he caught his second in the last two weeks. Jones is still the fantasy start in this offense, but Ridley should be able to pass Mohammed Sanu next season by enough targets to be a more consistent presence each week in fantasy. Matt Ryan will continue to put up good numbers with his strong set of receivers.

Jameis Winston ended his roller coaster 2018 on a high note, as he completed 22-of-35 passes for 345 yards, four touchdowns and an interception. Most of those yards and touchdowns went to his two best receivers, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Godwin was able to show his ability with DeSean Jackson in and out of the lineup, but should have been given the No. 2 job from the get-go.

It looks the Bucs are going to pick up Winston’s contract, which might mean they never make it to the playoffs, but should be enough to keep these two receivers as top fantasy plays next season. Godwin should be on everyone’s fantasy radar next year.

Cowboys 36, Giants 35
Amazingly, the Cowboys played all their starters this week for the duration of the game besides Ezekiel Elliott and two offensive linemen, who were rested. Unfortunately for those playing DFS or Week 17 championships, it was too risky to do the same.

Dak Prescott went off for 387 passing yards and four touchdowns, the most he’s ever thrown for in a game, and his best target was no other than Blake Jarwin, who caught his first NFL touchdown plus two more on his way to a monster fantasy day. I doubt this game is the beginning of Jarwin becoming a top tight end in the league, but he has played well to finish the season and will likely get a chance to win the job outright next season.

Eli Manning completed 24-of-41 passes for 301 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, looking like bad Eli. The Giants aren’t going to win with him as their quarterback and should try to move on, but who knows what they’ll end up doing.

Saquon Barkley ended the season on a strong note, as he rushed 17 times for 109 yards and a touchdown and caught 4-of-8 targets for 33 yards. He may not be able to take over games like star running backs could do before the NFL became a passing league, but he’s going to be a top-five fantasy pick next year no matter who is the Giants’ quarterback.

Panthers 33, Saints 14
Kyle Allen, the Panthers third-string quarterback, was happy to get his chance this week against the resting Saints, as he threw for 228 yards and two touchdowns and rush five times for 19 yards and another touchdown. It was a valiant effort and one that probably earned him a spot on the roster.

D.J. Moore caught four passes for 81 yards; Curtis Samuel caught two passes for 72 yards and a touchdown; and Ian Thomas caught five passes for 61 yards and a touchdown. When you add in Christian McCaffrey’s big year to those other targets, the Panthers have some nice young players to build around, as they will mercifully let Devin Funchess walk in free agency.

The Saints rested their starters, and Teddy Bridgewater didn’t look good, completing 14-of-22 passes for 118 yards, one touchdown and one interception. It’s not the game he wanted to put on tape for free agency, but there will still be plenty of suitors.

Patriots 38, Jets 3
Tom Brady showed up big to finish out the season, as he threw for 250 yards and four touchdowns against the Jets. It was his first four-touchdown game of the year, as he spread the ball around well, giving four different players touchdowns. It’s a good sign for the Patriots going into the playoffs.

Rob Gronkowski wasn’t one of those players who found the end zone though, as he saw only two targets, ranking him fifth on the team. This win gave the Patriots a bye, so Gronkowski will have had some rest for the playoffs, but this season, he has been nowhere close to the player he once was.

The Jets could do nothing against the Patriots, as Sam Darnold was sacked four times and threw for just 167 yards, with no touchdowns or interceptions. It was an up-and-down season for Darnold, but he finished strong overall and is a piece the Jets can build around. He’ll need some more play-makers on board to become a top-12 fantasy quarterback, but if he can get those pieces, he has the room to get there.

Lions 31, Packers 0
The Lions started the season with one of the best receiving groups in the league, but Marvin Jones was injured and they traded away Golden Tate and then in Week 17 Kenny Golladay was out, so your receiving leaders this week were Andy Jones, T.J. Jones, Brandon Powell and Levine Toilolo. Of that group, Powell is my pick to move up into the starting spot with Golladay and Jones next season. Add in a healthy Kerryon Johnson and an average Matthew Stafford, and there should at least be some fantasy points to mine, but Matt Patricia would be smart to open up his offense more.

Aaron Rodgers left this game early with a concussion, and that was all she wrote for the Packers’ offense. They’ll get a new head coach this offseason and do have key positions filled, with Aaron Jones playing well this season and Davante Adams dominating all year. And despite an early injury and poor offensive scheme by Mike McCarthy, Rodgers is still an elite quarterback. It shouldn’t take much to move this team back into contention and highlight the Packers’ fantasy stars in the process.

Bills 42, Dolphins 17
Josh Allen seems made for fantasy football, as he has an unbelievable arm and can run the ball with the best running quarterbacks in the league. He crushed this week, throwing for 224 yards and three touchdowns and running nine times for 95 yards and two more touchdowns on the way to a rout. Will Allen ever become a top real-life football player? I can’t say, but he’s got the ability to make things happen and keep a game interesting every week. They also may have found a solid play-maker in UDFA Robert Foster, while second-year receiver Zay Jones recovered from an awful rookie season to flash on more than one occasion this year. The Bills aren’t going to be contenders for the Super Bowl soon, but they could carry some strong fantasy players next year.

The Dolphins don’t have as much hope as the Bills, as Ryan Tannehill continues to be mediocre and was quite mediocre in Buffalo, as he completed 18-of-31 passes for 147 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions. He did catch a touchdown pass, but unless he’s looking to switch positions, it looks like he’s destined to be a backup or a spot starter if the Dolphins smartly move on from him. This team should look much different next year.

Chargers 23, Broncos 9
Philip Rivers is slumping at the wrong time, i.e. the fantasy playoffs! He has now thrown three touchdowns to six interceptions over his last three games, which did not look possible just a month ago. This offense is one of the best in the league, so the Chargers can strike at any time, but they were mediocre in Denver on Sunday. Thankfully, they got to face Case Keenum.

As for next season, there will again be plenty of fantasy players to target, as Melvin Gordon and Keenan Allen continue to dominate; Mike Williams took a step forward this year; and Hunter Henry will be healthy.

Case Keenum threw for 292 yards, one touchdown and an interception and continued his race to the middle. He’s an average quarterback, and that showed with 20 total touchdowns to 16 interceptions this year. The Broncos may stick with him, but they better find some real competition at the position if they want to improve at some point.

The big find for the Broncos this year was UDFA Phillip Lindsay, who was consistently awesome all year and should have seen more work early on, but Royce Freeman and Devontae Booker were ahead of him from the start due to draft capital. They will likely continue a committee of some sort, but Lindsay has won the lead job for next season.

Chiefs 35, Raiders 3
Kansas City easily crushed the Raiders, which left Patrick Mahomes sitting on the bench in the fourth quarter, much to the consternation of my DFS teams. Before he left, he threw for 281 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. He’ll finish the regular season with 5,097 yards and 50 touchdowns in his second year and first season as a starter. I could go on, but you know he’s a special player and will continue to make those around him fantasy assets for years to come.

Derrek Carr, on the other hand, does not make the players around him better and shrinks under pressure. When at home with a clean pocket, he can pick a defense apart, but so can a lot of quarterbacks in the league. He has yet to prove that he can carry a team and you need that from your quarterback, even if it is just for a quarter here and there.

Rams 48, 49ers 32
After a couple scarily poor games from Jared Goff, he has turned things around over his last two. This week, he cruised to 199 passing yards for four touchdowns before taking a fourth-quarter siesta. There’s no doubt that he has shown signs of elite ability this year, but he’s still a work in progress against a menacing pass rush. On the other hand, he has one of the best supporting casts in the league and should continue to be a good fantasy player with upside with this current team.

From the “Running Backs Don’t Matter” crowd, we once again saw C.J. Anderson, who was on his couch two weeks ago, put up big numbers. This time, he rushed 23 times for 132 yards and one touchdown and caught three passes for 22 more yards. Todd Gurley should return for the playoffs, but mark this down as another win for those who don’t want to waste big cap space on a running back.

Nick Mullens had one of your better awful football performances, as threw for 282 yards, three touchdowns and three interceptions, with most of the positive numbers coming in extreme garbage time. He has played well enough to be considered in that Case Keenum/Ryan Tannehill group, but Kyle Shanahan’s offense raises all the ships and if Mullens sails away from San Francisco, he’ll likely get lost.

George Kittle now owns the record for most receiving yards by a tight end, which Travis Kelce owned for a few minutes. Kittle also had sub-par quarterbacks all season, so there’s really no reason for a big letdown next year when Jimmy Garoppolo takes back the reins.

Bears 24, Vikings 10
Mitchell Trubisky threw for 163 yards and didn’t turn the ball over, which was all he needed to do, as the Vikings couldn’t do anything against the Bears’ stout defense. Trubisky had a few huge fantasy days, and that upside is there, but with the Bears defense, they aren’t going to ask him to do much. Until he really needs to put up numbers on a consistent basis, we may not find out if he can.

Jordan Howard made up the bulk of Chicago’s offense, as he rushed 21 times for 109 yards and two touchdowns. He continues to be game-script dependent, but with the Bears’ defense dominating, the game scripts have often been in his favor.

Kirk Cousins once again came up small in a big game, as he threw for just 132 yards and one touchdown. Overall, he put up good numbers, as he has two great receivers and they don’t always play the Bears, so he remains a viable fantasy quarterback going into next year.

Steelers 16, Bengals 13
The loss of Antonio Brown for this game hurt the Steelers’ offense, as they could not sustain drives with JuJu Smith-Schuster as their only play-making receiver. Or, the Steelers just played down to their opponent once again. It’s probably both.

Ben Roethlisberger threw for 287 yards, one touchdown and an interception that was returned for a touchdown. It got the job done, but the matchup should have led to bigger fantasy numbers. Roethlisberger did top 5,000 yards for the first time in his career and is going to end up in the top-three for quarterback fantasy scoring in this, his 15th season. He plans on coming back next season, and with Brown and Smith-Schuster, he could again be a fantasy asset.

The Bengals were down to ball boys running routes, so not much came out of this game worthwhile, but we did see Joe Mixon put up good numbers, as he rushed 13 times for 105 yards and caught his one target for two yards. I say it in this space more often than not, but I’ll say it again, give the ball to Mixon! Jeff Driskel was doing nothing. The Bengals had a lead for much of the game, yet 13 carries? Mixon is good and needs to be the engine to this offense, which means more work as a receiver and when you’re down your starting quarterback and two best receivers, you can give him the ball more than 13 times.

Seahawks 27, Cardinals 24
Russell Wilson completed just 12-of-21 passes for 152 yards, one touchdown and one interception at home against a Cardinals team who had given up a while ago. If Wilson isn’t hitting beautiful deep touchdown passes, this is the kind of line you end up with on a run-first team.

Chris Carson was a fantasy asset once again, as he rushed 19 times for 122 yards and a touchdown. He has now had three 100-yard games in a row and we no longer talk about Seattle’s offensive line. The run-first approach seems to be working for Seattle, and Carson looks like he’s locked in as the starter for next season.

Josh Rosen finished off his rookie season completing 18-of-34 passes for 149 yards and one touchdown. He didn’t have the best situation to judge his first year, as he was constantly under pressure due to a weak offensive line and his best receiver is close to retirement. Arizona’s troubles aren’t going to be fixed quickly, so Rosen will likely remain a project, but there’s no reason to write him off just yet.

David Johnson was a disappointment even though he’ll finish ninth overall in PPR scoring for running backs. He was used poorly for much of the year, and it likely is one of the reasons Steve Wilks is on the verge of being one and done. There’s still talent there, and it can be highlighted with better coaching.

Eagles 24, Redskins 0
Nick Foles completed 28-of-33 passes for 221 yards, two touchdowns and an interception before leaving with bruised ribs. It appears like he’ll be able to play through the injury next week against the Bears. He has won himself a starting job somewhere next year.

The Eagles continue to spread the ball around, which makes picking fantasy plays tough. Alshon Jeffery is a bit of an exception, as he continues to see decent usage, but even he only had five targets this week, on his way to five receptions for 59 yards and a touchdown.

Ravens 26, Browns 24
Lamar Jackson threw for 179 yards and ran the ball 20 times for 90 yards and two touchdowns. It looked like he was finally going to have that huge fantasy day we all expect he’ll get sooner or later, but he fumbled at the goal line on what could have easily been his third touchdown run of the day and had another touchdown called back. He has one of the solidest fantasy floors in the league with his rushing ability, but there is still room for him to push those numbers up.

The Ravens ran roughshod over the Browns for most of the game, as Jackson, Gus Edwards and Kenneth Dixon all ran well. Dixon led in yardage, as he rushed 12 times for 117 yards while Edwards also had 12 carries, but for 76 yards. This game was a good sign for Dixon, as he appears healthy and elusive, and on a run-first Ravens team, he could have value in a committee.

Baker Mayfield threw for 376 yards with three touchdowns and three interceptions in Baltimore and broke the rookie record with 27 touchdown passes, despite not getting a chance to win the starting job in preseason and not starting until Week 4. The Browns finally have a quarterback.

Colts 33, Titans 17
Andrew Luck threw for 285 yards, three touchdowns and one interception and ran seven times for 17 yards, leading the Colts into the playoffs with a win over the Titans. After the possibility of Luck never playing again, this season was great to see. Luck was lucky to get Frank Reich as his head coach, but there’s no doubt that Luck is a great quarterback and appears to have a long career still ahead.

Marlon Mack was a workhorse against a tough Titans run defense, as he rushed 25 times for 119 yards and a touchdown. Injuries kept him down early in the season, but he came on strong and easily won the lead-back role. He’s not the next Todd Gurley or Melvin Gordon, but he’s in a good offense with a good offensive line and should remain the lead back next year.

Blaine Gabbert proved once again that he isn’t a good quarterback, as he completed 18-of-29 passes for 165 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions and never gave his team a chance to win. Marcus Mariota might not be injury prone, but he has had a bunch of injuries and it’s tough to think of him playing a 16-game season right now. The Titans at least need a better backup.

Derrick Henry rushed 16 times for 93 yards and caught one pass for 13 more yards. He hadn’t topped 58 yards rushing in any game before his huge blowup against the Jaguars in Week 14, but he backed up that game with another huge rushing day and then a couple good rushing days to finish up the season. It will be interesting to see where he goes in fantasy drafts next year. I expect he’ll go higher than he should, but he also gets a strong line to run behind and I expect the Titans to commit to him more as the lead back next season. His lack of receiving chops will keep him out of the elite running back circle, but he scored 12 touchdowns in his last 10 games and there’s no doubt he’ll remain the goal-line back.

For more thoughts, check out Walt’s updated NFL Power Rankings, which will be posted Tuesday morning.

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