Fantasy Football: The Things I Learned – Week 9, 2018

By Chet Gresham – @ChetGresham
Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Below, check out my fantasy-centered recaps of key players from this week’s contests. For instance, did a player come back to earth after an aberrant breakout, or were they simply affected by something like game flow?

Falcons 38, Redskins 14
Matt Ryan’s big fantasy numbers continued this week, as he completed 26-of-38 passes for 350 yards and four touchdowns. This was a great sign for his rest-of-the-season upside, as going on the road and playing outdoors against a decent defense hasn’t been a spot for him to put up these kinds of numbers in the past.

After the Redskins had shut down some of the best running backs in the league of late, they end up allowing Tevin Coleman and Ito Smith to destroy them this week at home for 220 total yards and three touchdowns. Coleman led the way with a huge game, which is great to see, as he hadn’t quite lived up to expectations after Devonta Freeman’s injuries.

Maurice Harris was the fantasy story for Washington this week, as he caught 10-of-12 targets for 124 yards in Jamison Crowder’s slot position. The numbers aren’t sustainable, but he does get Tampa Bay next week, and if Crowder is out again, Harris has some PPR appeal.

Vernon Davis appears to be splitting work with Jordan Reed at this point, as Davis saw seven targets to Reed’s six. Davis caught five of his seven for 62 yards, while Reed caught four of his seven for 32 yards. Reed hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 1 and hasn’t topped 43 yards since Week 3. This was a good matchup against the Falcons, so I’m ready to call Reed’s 2018 a bust.

Vikings 24, Lions 9
Kirk Cousins didn’t need to do much in this game, as the Vikings had the lead throughout and he only threw 22 passes, completing 18 for 164 yards, one touchdown and one interception.

Dalvin Cook was supposed to be on a snap count, but ended up out-snapping Latavius Murray, as he rushed 10 times for 89 yards and caught all four of his targets for 20 yards, while Murray rushed 10 times for 31 yards and one touchdown, plus caught his one target for 16 more yards. Cook’s biggest play was a 70-yard run on which he got up to 22.07 mph, which was the fastest a ball-carrier has run this season according to Next Gen Stats. That’s good to see after he had been plagued with a hamstring injury for so long. He will lead the way coming out of the bye.

The Lions couldn’t get anything going against the Vikings, as Matthew Stafford threw for under 200 yards and couldn’t find the end zone. The absence of Golden Tate hurt the offense overall, as Tate’s work appeared to be taken over by Theo Riddick, who caught 7-of-8 targets, but for only 36 yards.

Kerryon Johnson still saw five targets with Riddick back, so that’d good news, but he only totaled 44 yards on 15 touches. Johnson will have better days, but he will face the Bears next week in a tough matchup.

Steelers 23, Ravens 16
Ben Roethlisberger bucked his history on the road against the Ravens, as he completed 28-of-47 passes for 270 yards and two touchdowns, plus took a goal-line plunge for touchdown to give him three on the day. It was good to see him put up a good fantasy game in this situation and bodes well for him moving forward.

James Conner rushed for over 100 yards and caught seven passes for 56 yards and a touchdown. The Ravens hadn’t allowed a 100-yard rusher in over a year. Conner is the real deal.

The Ravens couldn’t get much going against an improved Steelers defense, but Willie Snead led the way in targets, receptions and receiving yards, as he caught 7-of-8 for 58 yards. That tells you about all you need to know about the Ravens’ offense this week.

Alex Collins was held to 39 yards on 10 touches, but did find the end zone after a pass interference call set him up at the one-yard line, while Javorius Allen caught all five of his targets, but for only nine yards. Expect Ty Montgomery to be given a chance after the bye.

Chiefs 37, Browns 21
Kansas City continued its offensive explosion, as Patrick Mahomes threw for 375 yards, three touchdowns and one Hail Mary interception just before halftime, while Kareem Hunt totaled 141 yards and three touchdowns, and Travis Kelce caught seven passes for 99 yards and two touchdowns. The lack of diversity in the Chiefs’ play-makers might hurt them against the Rams and Saints, but Mahomes is playing out of this world right now and should be able to put up big numbers against all takers.

With Greg Williams now head coach in Cleveland, we saw a big improvement in Duke Johnson’s workload, as he caught all nine of his targets for 78 yards and two touchdowns. His previous reception high for the season was four. There’s no doubt this is a great sign for his PPR value, especially next week against the Falcons. If Johnson is on your waiver wire, go after him.

Baker Mayfield put together a good day, as he had his best completion percentage of the year and threw for 297 yards and two touchdowns. The expanded workload for Duke Johnson should help Mayfield moving forward, as it did Sunday.

Targets were spread pretty thin for the Browns, as Damion Ratley, Antonio Callaway, David Njoku, Breshad Perriman – what?! -, Jarvis Landry and Duke Johnson each saw four or more passes thrown their way.

Dolphins 13, Jets 6
Brock Osweiler threw for 139 yards, no touchdowns or interceptions, and Frank Gore rushed 20 times for 53 yards. That was the Miami offense, as Sam Darnold threw four interceptions, including the only touchdown of the game – on a pick-six.

Frank Gore’s usage ahead of Kenyan Drake remains a mystery, but there doesn’t seem to be any end in sight.

Elijah McGuire rushed seven times for 30 yards and caught 3-of-5 targets for 37 yards, while Isaiah Crowell rushed 13 times for 49 yards and caught one pass for 11 yards. This is likely the split we will see between these two, but I could also see McGuire earning more work quickly. He is worth an add in most leagues.

Bears 41, Bills 9
Due to two defensive touchdowns, Mitchell Trubisky only threw the ball 20 times, completing 12 for 135 yards, one touchdown and one interception. He mostly handed off to Jordan Howard and watched his defense mangle the awful Bills.

Howard led all fantasy scorers, as he rushed 14 times for 47 yards and two touchdowns. The early lead made Howard the preferred back, as Tarik Cohen only saw seven touches, with only one being a reception. Cohen needs the Bears to be in closer matchups to reach his value.

Nathan Peterman completed 31-of-49 passes for 189 yards and three interceptions, plus rushed for a one-yard touchdown in extreme garbage time, which might as well have been the title of the Buffalo offense this week.

Panthers 42, Buccaneers 28
Carolina got up to a big lead in this game, with the bulk of the points coming on the ground, so Cam Newton ended up throwing just 25 passes, but he did complete 19 of them for 247 yards and two touchdowns. He also rushed for 33 yards on 11 carries. It wasn’t the huge game many were hoping for at home against a bad Buccaneers defense, but it could have been worse if Ryan Fitzpatrick hadn’t brought Tampa Bay back to force Newton to keep pushing late in the game.

Christian McCaffrey has turned into a touchdown machine of late, as he scored two last week and two again this week, but this week, he added 157 total yards to those touchdowns. He also saw three rushing attempts inside the Bucs’ five-yard-line, and scored twice on those runs. That’s good to see, as Newton often takes those for himself.

D.J. Moore didn’t get the work I thought he would with Torrey Smith out, but instead Curtis Samuel was the preferred receiving speedster, as he caught 2-of-4 targets for 25 yards and a touchdown. He also added another touchdown on a 33-yard carry. In many ways Moore and Samuel cancel each other out, as there just aren’t enough touches for them both and it’s difficult to predict which one will break out.

Ryan Fitzpatrick continued his passing-touchdown party, as he threw for four, but he also had two bad interceptions and continues to scare his fantasy backers. There’s no doubt though that he is going to air the ball out and put up fantasy points.

The top Buccaneers receivers, Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson and Chris Godwin combined for five receptions for no touchdowns while O.J. Howard and Adam Humphries combined for 12 receptions and four touchdowns. We knew Howard’s upside, but Humphries hadn’t scored a touchdown this season. He did have seven receptions last week and eight this week, so there is some PPR value there, but there really are too many mouths to feed before him in this offense.

Chargers 25, Seahawks 17
Philip Rivers had 26 attempts against the Seahawks, and now has had 27 or fewer in four straight games, but has still managed two touchdown passes in each and two or more in every game he’s played, while throwing a total of three interceptions. He’s been efficient, but he’s going to need to play from behind for most of a game to really let his fantasy upside out.

Keenan Allen was a little disgruntled with his workload before the bye, so the Chargers seemed to make a point to get him the ball more this week, as he saw 10 targets and two rushing attempts. He totaled 152 yards but was unable to find the end zone. This was still his biggest yardage game of the year by a wide margin and a good sign for his usage to see a bump.

Russell Wilson threw the ball 39 times, which is the most he’s thrown in a game this season, but against a tough Chargers pass defense, he managed just 235 yards on 26 completions. He threw for two touchdowns and one interception, which was returned for a touchdown. The best news for Wilson and his fantasy prospects was that he rushed the ball five times for 41 yards, which doubled his previous high in rushing yards this season.

Chris Carson injured his thigh and missed most of the second half, which pushed Mike Davis into the lead role. Davis ran the ball 15 times for 62 yards and caught 7-of-8 targets for 45 yards. Those seven receptions were his career high. If Carson can’t go next week, Davis would have some appeal against the Rams.

Texans 19, Broncos 17
DeShaun Watson was efficient, completing 17-of-24 passes for 213 yards and two touchdowns, but he should have had more passing attempts, as the Texans’ running game was going nowhere and the Broncos had the lead in the third quarter. He hasn’t thrown the ball more than 25 times since Week 5, and over the last four games, he hasn’t topped 239 passing yards. His five-touchdown game was an outlier, as he only had 16 completions. It is hard not to think he is being limited due to his punctured lung and that the Texans’ bye week is coming at a perfect time despite their winning streak.

Fifty percent of Watson’s targets and 59 percent of his completions went to DeAndre Hopkins with Will Fuller on I.R. and Keke Coutee out this week. Newcomer Demaryius Thomas started quickly with a couple grabs early on, but ended up with just three targets, which he turned into 61 yards. The results from those three targets were good, and I expect the Texans will need to open up their offense a bit more after the bye, so Thomas should remain fantasy viable at least.

Alfred Blue ended up out-touching Lamar Miller in this game 15-14, but neither did anything of substance with the ball. It is disappointing to see Miller be so ineffective after two big games, but it does appear the Broncos have righted their run defense for the time being.

Tight end Jeff Heuerman led the Broncos in targets, receptions, receiving yards and fantasy points, as he caught 10-of-11 targets for 83 yards and one touchdown. His only catch last week was a touchdown, so now he has two touchdowns on the year, but this week was a huge change from his regular workload. The absence of Thomas helped boost his numbers, but I doubt he’ll consistently see big target numbers. The Broncos also have a bye next week before taking on a tough Chargers pass defense. I’d wait to grab him off waivers unless you are in a deep league in need of a tight end.

Courtland Sutton didn’t blow up in the vacuum left by Thomas, but he did catch 3-of-5 targets for 57 yards and just missed a long touchdown. There will be better days ahead for Sutton now that he is near the top of the pecking order.

Saints 45, Rams 35
The fantasy game of the week actually lived up to the billing, as these two teams combined for 970 yards and 10 touchdowns. Drew Brees led the way with four touchdown passes, as he completed 25-of-36 passes for 346 yards and will likely be the top fantasy quarterback of the week.

The largest chunk of Brees’ passing yards went to Michael Thomas, who caught 12-of-15 passes for 211 yards and a touchdown. Thomas now has four games with an average of 12.5 receptions and another four games with an average of five receptions. Those four down games were all against pretty strong pass defenses or cornerback matchups, so the discrepancy, although wide, does make sense.

Mark Ingram fumbled early on, and Alvin Kamara was playing extremely well, so Ingram’s lack of touches makes sense, as Kamara had 23 to Ingram’s 10. Kamara didn’t blow up with yardage, but did score three touchdowns, including a one-yard touchdown run, which Ingram backers would have liked for their guy. There will be better days for Ingram, but there is no doubt that Kamara is the lead back and will stay that way. A big second-half lead could push Ingram’s touches up toward Kamara’s at some point, but Kamara will get his shot first to get that lead.

Jared Goff completed 28-of-40 passes for 391 yards, three touchdowns and an interception. He had some beautiful passes in this game and continues to show he’s more than a “system quarterback.” The facts that the Saints’ stout run defense slowed Todd Gurley down and that Drew Brees and company were able to score at will, made this game perfect for Goff’s fantasy numbers. That won’t happen every week, but we undoubtedly know he has the ability.

Brandin Cooks got a little revenge on his old team, as he caught 6-of-8 targets for 114 yards and a touchdown. Cooper Kupp also found the end zone, as he caught 5-of-6 targets for 89 yards and a touchdown in his first game back from injury. Robert Woods led the Rams in targets, but couldn’t find the end zone, as he caught 5-of-9 targets for 71 yards. These three make up the best three-man wide receiver group in the league and will continue to put up numbers, but Kupp should remain the most consistent.

Patriots 31, Packers 17
Josh Gordon finally broke out, catching 5-of-10 targets for 130 yards and a touchdown. The absence of Rob Gronkowski helped, but we knew that Gordon and Tom Brady would eventually put together a big game and this was the week. Gordon tied Julian Edelman for the target lead, which is also good to see, as his target share had waned of late.

With Sony Michel out, James White and Cordarrelle Patterson split work on the ground. Patterson played well as a running back and put up better numbers than he did on a similar workload last week, as he rushed 11 times for 61 yards, including a touchdown run. Unfortunately for us fantasy players, Sony Michel should return soon and keep Patterson away from good rushing attempts.

James White continues to see big numbers, and despite just 31 yards on 12 touches, White rushed for two touchdowns. He also caught 6-of-7 targets for 72 more yards. He’s helping a lot of teams this year and should continue to do so even when Michel returns.

Aaron Jones once again ran well, as he rushed 14 times for 76 yards and caught 2-of-4 passes for 10 yards. Unfortunately, Jones had a costly fumble late in the game, which could hold his touches back somewhat. Jamaal Williams had nine touches for 54 yards, which isn’t bad, but Jones continues to outshine him every week.

Davante Adams scored another touchdown, giving him seven through eight games. He had a tough matchup this week, so it was good to see him find the end zone despite totaling just 40 yards, his lowest number of the season.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling continues to show his upside, as all three of his receptions went for chunk plays. On the night, he caught 3-of-6 passes for 101 yards. Geronimo Allison is quickly losing ground to Valdes-Scantling, and we should continue to see Valdes-Scantling get useful snaps moving forward.

For more thoughts, check out Walt’s updated NFL Power Rankings, which will be posted Tuesday morning.

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