NFL Picks Against the Spread: Super Bowl LII

NFL Picks (Preseason 2017): 9-10-1 (-$110)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2017): 8-6-1 (+$135)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2017): 9-7 (+$45)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2017): 5-11 (-$425)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2017): 5-11 (+$90)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2017): 8-6 (+$1,080)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2017): 6-8 (-$640)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2017): 3-10-2 (-$2,180)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2017): 6-7 (-$1,795)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2017): 7-5-1 (+$205)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2017): 8-5-1 (+$290)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2017): 3-10-1 (-$1,595)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2017): 9-6-1 (+$420)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2017): 6-10 (-$730)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2017): 8-8 (+$350)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2017): 7-8-1 (-$460)
NFL Picks (Week 16, 2017): 13-2-1 (+$1,500)
NFL Picks (Week 17, 2017): 12-4 (+$1,120)
NFL Picks (Week 18, 2017): 3-1 (+$160)
NFL Picks (Week 19, 2017): 2-2 (+$360)
NFL Picks (Week 20, 2017): 0-2 (-$1,280)

NFL Picks (2017): 130-131-9 (-$3,460)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$1,055)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-132-7 (-$1,115)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Feb. 1, 5:50 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Philadelphia Eagles (15-3) vs. New England Patriots (15-3)
Line: Patriots by 4. Total: 49.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Patriots -6.5.
Sunday, Feb. 4, 6:30 ET
Super Bowl LII at Minnesota
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: None.

WEEK 20 RECAP: I won in the first two weeks of the playoffs, but Championship Sunday proved to be brutal. I lost two huge plays on the Vikings and Patriots. The Minnesota selection was a dumb one, as I should’ve seen that the Vikings would be flat following their last-second victory against the Saints. That’s exactly what they were; they missed tackles and blew coverages despite not doing that all year. It was pathetic.

I don’t have a problem with my Patriots pick. New England played a bad game and Jacksonville played at its best, and yet the Patriots were still four points away from covering. I think New England beats the Jaguars by double digits more often than not.

HATE MAIL: I received some hate mail for what happened in Week 20:

Yes, Ross was banned. I warned him about saying bad things about women who weren’t around to defend themselves, but the scumbag couldn’t resist himself. So, he got the ban.

This hasn’t stopped Ross from trying to contact me. He even asked for a job! No joke. I’ll show you proof on a later date.

Anyway, I had to get one last piece of hate mail from a salty Jags fan:

First of all, I’m glad he thinks I’m great and powerful. It’s about time someone recognized that. Second, this is a lot of bark from a fan whose team nearly lost to the freaking Bills.

Apparently, an Eagles fan thinks I hate his team, too:

Yes. I hate the Eagles. Except I bet them to win the Super Bowl, and I picked them almost every single week during the regular season. Derp!

Here’s something from Facebook:

Hey, I know it’s cool to be progressive now, but I still wouldn’t go around claiming I’m friends with huge anuses, though I suspect Matt Millen would be proud of something like that.

Last one:

I am the great and powerful Walter Brutal Cherepinsky!

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Emmitt on the Brink Season 10 is now complete. Real Emmitt was trapped in the evil dimension. Could he escape and vanquish Evil Emmitt, who has been causing mayhem in the real world?

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is Smart Barista, Dumb Comast Worker and Best Friends. The previous week, I talked about Johnny Manziel’s cousin!

This week on NBC, we’re going to have some Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, and aloof people like Dan Fouts. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the bitter cold city of Minnesota, where we’re having a great Super Game between my Philadelphia Eagles, the greatest team in the world, and the cheating, no-good, stupid Patriots. I’m not sure why the Super Game is in this stupid city, especially after we just crushed the Vikings’ hopes and dreams. The Super Game should be in Philadelphia, where heroes are made, like Rocky, Nick Foles and yours truly, Kevin Reilly. Guys, everyone is focused on Justin Timberland doing the halftime show, but the pre-game ceremony will be the wedding between Mother and Jay Cutler. Let’s begin the proceedings!

Emmitt: Timberland, I real confuse. I thought Jake Cutler was marry to a women name Christian Cavaliers. Now, he gettin’ married to Timberland mother. Are Jake Cutler are a religious called Morgan, which mean he can have two or more wife?

Reilly: I don’t know who you’re talking about with Christian Cavaliers, Emmitt, but as the best man of this wedding, I advise you to shut up. OK, let’s begin. Here comes a groomsman, Tolly, and mother’s Bingo partner Anne.

Tollefson: Yo, d**khead, why did you stick me with this old hag? How am I ever going to get her drunk, kidnap her and have her cook and clean naked for me when I don’t want to see her naked? Way to be selfish, you f***ing prick!

Reilly: I’m sorry, Tolly! Please don’t yell at me. You’re my best friend, and I need support right now because my girlfriend Natalie Portman said she couldn’t come because she was washing her hair and mowing the lawn. OK, up next, Wolfley and mother’s favorite bank teller, Sharon.

Wolfley: ON MY PLANET OF ORIGIN, THERE ARE NO BANKS. YOU SIMPLY PRESS CHECKS YOU RECEIVE AGAINST YOUR FOREHEAD, AND THEN YOU AUTOMATICALLY GET THE MONEY DESPOSITED INTO YOUR BANK ACCOUNT. IT’S ODD THAT THERE’S A BANK ACCOUNT WITH NO BANKS, BUT THIS IS HOW THINGS ARE ON MY HOME WORLD.

Reilly: No one cares. Next up, we have Millen and mother’s dental technician, Mary.

Millen: I can’t wait for this to be over, Kevin. Not to rush things, but I already spoke to the usher, and he agreed to meet me in my hotel room, where I will ride him like a stallion all night long.

Reilly: Shut up, sicko. And finally, here’s Fouts and mother’s favorite UPS delivery woman, Alexa.

Fouts: And here’s what he means by delivery woman. There’s a woman, which is the same thing as a man, except for the numbers “w” and “o” at the beginning of the phrase, and she delivers, which would be why there’s an adjective “delivery” prior to the phrase “woman.” This means that the woman delivers something, which is not to be confused with undelivery woman, who is a woman who does not deliver something.

Reilly: Shut up, you’re ruining the wedding and Super Game! Anyway, where’s the officiant? Officiant? Where are you?

Charles Davis: Kevin, looks like I’ll be your officiant, Kevin. I’m licensed in the state of Minnesota, Kevin, so I can be the officiant, Kevin.

Reilly: NOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!

Charles Davis: Kevin, it sounds like you’re happy that I’m your officiant, Kevin. I’m overjoyed, Kevin. Anyway, Kevin, let’s begin, Kevin. Dearly beloved and Kevin, we, and Kevin, are here today to join this man and this woman, and Kevin, in holy matrimony, Kevin. Let’s begin, Kevin, with an exchanging of vows between Jay Cutler and Kevin’s mother, Kevin. You first, Kevin’s mother, Kevin.

Mother: Kevy-poo, don’t slouch. I am glad to have met such a great man like Jay Cutler. He has been a great lover and a positive role model for my son, Kevy-poo. Jay Cutler has tried to teach Kevy-poo how to play catch, but Kevy-poo proved to be too incompetent to catch anything. Perhaps one day Jay Cutler will teach Kevy-poo about the birds and the bees, but at 66, he’s too young to hear about that. I also couldn’t believe that Kevy-poo has a girlfriend named Natalie Portman. Kevy-poo is too young to talk to girls, so I made sure Natalie Portman wouldn’t come. I asked Jay Cutler to sneak into her house and pour acid into her hair and then salt her land so she wouldn’t have viable soil to grow crops.

Reilly: But moooooommmmm!!!

Mother: Zip it, Kevy-poo. Or I’ll order you to bed right now. It’s already past your bed time! You should be so lucky to have a loving mother like myself who will protect you from heathens like Natalie Portman!

Charles Davis: Wow, Kevin, that’s pathetic, Kevin. Kevin, I’m almost willing to stop tricking you with pepperoni pizza answers, Kevin, but that’s too much fun for me, Kevin. Now, Jay Cutler, it is time for you to say your vows, Jay Cutler.

Jay Cutler: Meh.

Charles Davis: Jay Cutler, you don’t have anything to say to your lovely bride, Jay Cutler?

Jay Cutler: I guess, I dunno. Meh.

Charles Davis: Let’s just move on. Now, if any of you present know of any reason that this couple, Kevin, should not be joined in holy matrimony, speak now or forever hold your peace.

Herm: I HAVE SOMETHING TO SAY! HERM HAS SOMETHING TO SAY! HERM MUST SAY SOMETHING! HERM MUST SPEAK! HERM CAN’T HOLD HIS PEACE! HERM CAN’T HOLD THE PEACE! HERM’S HAVING TROUBLE HOLDING THE PIECE! HERM CAN’T HOLD! HERM’S NOT GONNA HOLD! HERM’S NOT GETTING FLAGGED FOR A 10-YARD PENALTY! NO 10 YARDS FOR HERM! NO 10 YARDS NOW! NO 10 YARDS! NO 10 YARDS HERE! NO 10 YARDS THERE! NO 10 YARDS ANYWHERE! TEN YARDS… TEN… uhh… umm…

Reilly: Shut up, Herm! You’re ruining the best wedding ever! Isn’t that right, new daddy Jay Cutler!? Beat up Herm for me one last time before he goes to coach Arizona!

Jay Cutler: Meh.

Charles Davis: Kevin, by the authority vested in me by the State of Minnesota, Jay Cutler and Kevin’s mother, I now pronounce you husband and wife. You may now kiss the bride, Jay Cutler!

Jay Cutler: Meh.

Reilly: Finally, new daddy is my real daddy! And now, it’s time for my Philadelphia Eagles to win the Super Game! The only way this day could be better is if Charles Davis fell into a volcano and then got eaten by a fire shark! Ha! Motherf***er!

Mother: That’s it, Kevy-poo! I warned you about foul language. You’re grounded, and you won’t be getting your allowance this week. Oh, and forget about calling the Super Bowl! You have to go home now and sit in your room without using the Internet or playing with your Nick Foles bobble-head dolls!

Reilly: Waaahhhhhh!!! Stupid Charles Davis ruined the Super Game for me wahhhhhhh!!! We’ll be back after this waaaahhhhhhh!

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: I never thought the Eagles would get here with Nick Foles. And no, I don’t hate the Eagles, as the one commenter above pointed out. I placed a wager on them to win the Super Bowl back in July because I believed in their offensive line, defense, and most of all, Carson Wentz. When Wentz went down, I would’ve sold my 35:1 ticket for half of its original price. That’s how down in the dumps I was about Foles, and my concerns were validated when he struggled to complete a forward pass against the Raiders and Cowboys in the final two weeks of the regular season.

Foles wasn’t great versus Atlanta in the divisional round. He sailed some passes, and most of his completions were checkdowns. To be fair, the wind was a factor, as Matt Ryan was nearly intercepted on a careless downfield shot as well. Everything changed, however, in the NFC Championship. With the Eagles using the run-pass option – even though Foles is no threat to run? – Foles delivered downfield strikes with confidence. He absolutely torched the hapless Vikings, who uncharacteristically missed tackles and blew coverages. Minnesota was so sound defensively all year, but the defense didn’t show up, perhaps because of the manner in which the team won in the divisional round against the Saints. Foles completed 26-of-33 passes for 352 yards and three touchdowns.

Call me a Foles hater all you want, but I don’t think we’re going to see this sort of performance again. Bill Belichick has had two weeks to prepare for Foles, and I imagine he’ll have a great game plan prepared for the upstart quarterback. Belichick is the master of taking away an opposing offense’s best threat, and that would be tight end Zach Ertz. Foles will have to look elsewhere, which will be problematic because New England’s secondary is excellent. I don’t like Patrick Chung, but the Patriots have two shutdown cornerbacks who will be able to erase Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor.

The Eagles, of course, will attempt to run the ball. The Jaguars did this effectively against the Patriots because Alan Branch was out. Branch, New England’s monstrous run-stuffer, practiced all week leading up to the AFC Championship, but was a surprise inactive for both playoff games thus far. With two extra weeks to heal, I imagine Branch will be able to suit up. He’s listed as probable on one site, though the official injury reports haven’t been released yet. Branch’s return will be a huge boon for the Patriots, as they won’t have to commit extra defenders to the box to stop Jay Ajayi, LeGarrette Blount and Corey Clement.

The one thing the Eagles have going for them on this side of the ball is pass protection. Save for left tackle, Philadelphia has an elite offensive line, while the Patriots don’t have much of a pass rush. Trey Flowers is their only defender who can consistently get to the quarterback, and he’ll be matched up against Lane Johnson, the best right tackle in the NFL.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Branch’s availability is a big deal, but it doesn’t compare to Rob Gronkowski’s. Gronkowski, of course, suffered a concussion in the AFC Championship. The Patriots rallied without him, coming back from down 10 with nine minutes remaining in regulation, but he’ll be needed against the Eagles.

It sounds like Gronkowski will play. He practiced Saturday and Sunday, and reports indicate that he will clear concussion protocol. If so, he’ll obviously be problematic for Philadelphia to deal with. The Eagles have an excellent defense, but they haven’t been great against tight ends. Kyle Rudolph beat them for a touchdown during the opening drive in the NFC Championship, and Gronkowski could similarly find the end zone on a couple of occasions in the Super Bowl.

Tom Brady will naturally spread the ball around, but he’ll need to be protected. The formula for beating him over the years has been to pressure him with four players, dropping the remaining seven back in coverage. Blitzing him is basically signing your death warrant. The Giants just sent four rushers against him during the two occasions in which they met in the Super Bowl, and they beat him both times. The Eagles can just apply pressure with four very effectively. They have the best defensive line in the NFL, and they’re extremely deep. Brandon Graham, Vinny Curry, Derek Barnett and Chris Long can all generate tons of heat on the edge, while Fletcher Cox, Timmy Jernigan and Graham (when moved inside on passing downs) all thrive at causing disruption in the interior.

New England’s offensive line will have to be up to the challenge. I trust the interior blocking, but the same can’t be said for the tackles. Blind-side protector Nate Solder hasn’t been himself this year because he’s been banged up, while right tackle has been a revolving door because of injuries. Cameron Fleming, the third-string right tackle, played in the AFC Championship. He actually wasn’t that bad, but I can’t say I trust him to hold up versus the Eagles.

While this certainly has been the formula for beating Brady, I imagine that Brady and Belichick have been humbled by this and will make the appropriate adjustments. It won’t be like 2007 when Brady would have to wait for Randy Moss to run downfield. Brady will release his passes quickly to his plethora of weapons. Danny Amendola and Brandin Cooks will be covered well, but Brady should be able to use Dion Lewis and James White effectively as pass-catchers out of the backfield. And don’t forget about Gronkowski, of course.

RECAP: The Eagles have the better overall team when compared to the Patriots. They have the superior running game. The receiving corps are about equal. Philadelphia has the better offensive line, and the front seven isn’t even close. The secondaries are about the same. The Eagles are even or better everywhere … except for the two spots that count the most: quarterback and head coach.

I like Doug Pederson, but Belichick is arguably the greatest coach of all time. He’s even better with extra time to prepare. Meanwhile, this is one of the greatest quarterback disparities we may have ever had in Super Bowl history. Well, OK, maybe it’s not as vast as Peyton Manning over Rex Grossman in February 2007, but it’s close! That game, by the way, did not end well for the team with the inferior signal-caller.

That, however, has been a rare outcome. Check out how superior quarterbacks have done in the big game this millennium:

2000 – Kerry Collins over Trent Dilfer: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2001 – Kurt Warner over Tom Brady: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2002 – Rich Gannon over Brad Johnson: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2003 – Tom Brady over Jake Delhomme: Win SU, Loss ATS
2004 – Tom Brady over Donovan McNabb: Win SU, Loss ATS
2005 – (Ben Roethlisberger in second year and Matt Hasselbeck considered even)
2006 – Peyton Manning over Rex Grossman: Win SU, Win ATS
2007 – Tom Brady over Eli Manning: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2008 – (Ben Roethlisberger and Kurt Warner considered even)
2009 – Peyton Manning over Drew Brees: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2010 – Aaron Rodgers over Ben Roethlisberger: Win SU, Win ATS
2011 – Tom Brady over Eli Manning: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2012 – Colin Kaepernick over Joe Flacco: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2013 – Peyton Manning over Russell Wilson: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2014 – Tom Brady over Russell Wilson: Win SU, Win ATS
2015 – Cam Newton over Peyton Manning: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2016 – (Tom Brady and Matt Ryan considered even)

Does that mean Foles will beat, or at least cover against Brady? It could. It really depends on how Foles plays, and given how erratic he’s been, it’s tough to determine how he’ll perform. That’s what makes it so difficult to predict this game. If we get the Foles that we saw versus Minnesota, the Eagles will win the Super Bowl. However, if we see the Foles who struggled against Oakland and Dallas, the Patriots will win by multiple scores.

I think it’s more likely than not that we’ll get the latter Foles. As mentioned earlier, the Vikings were incredibly flat in the NFC Championship. They beat the Saints on a miraculous play, and everyone expected them to win in Philadelphia. They thought they could just show up and prevail, and that didn’t happen. Their defense, which had been so stout all year, whiffed on tackles and blew coverages. Mike Zimmer’s stop unit hadn’t done that all season, but it saved its worst performance for the very end.

Belichick’s squad won’t be flat and unprepared. The Patriots have been here a billion times before, and they’ll have a great game plan in place for Foles. Thus, I expect Foles to struggle at times, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he turned the ball over on a couple of occasions as a consequence.

The public, however, doesn’t see it that way. There’s public money on the Eagles, which is saying something because the Patriots are usually receiving action from the Joes. Philadelphia now has that distinction, as casual bettors were overly impressed by what they saw in the NFC Championship. “The Eagles won 38-7, and the Pats almost lost to the Jags, so the Eagles are gonna cover this game!” That’s the mentality of most bettors. Yet, if you set this spread prior to Championship Weekend, the Patriots would’ve been favored by at least 6.5, maybe even 7.5!

This is an overreaction to two games, and the public seems to be falling for it, hook, line and sinker. The spread has dropped from +6 to now +4. There was sharp money on Philadelphia +6, but the public has been responsible for moving the line since. I imagine there will be professional bets placed on the Patriots at some point. The sharps are just waiting for the best number, perhaps a -3.5.

At -4, I like the Patriots for two units. I’m not in love with this bet because the Eagles are the better team overall, but given that this is a Manning-over-Grossman type of quarterback disparity, there’s also a chance that New England wins this contest by multiple touchdowns. In the end, I believe that somehow, some way, the Patriots will prevail by a margin between three and seven points. They’ve won by three thrice in their five Super Bowl victories, so -4 is a bit scary for that reason. However, I think a mix of -4 and the moneyline (-180 at Bovada) is the right way to go. And if you have a prop on the Eagles to win the Super Bowl like I do, the -180 makes even more sense!

I’ll post my favorite Super Bowl props later today. Check back, or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

PROPS: I’m not a big fan of prop betting, but occasionally I’ll come across a few things I’ll like. For example, I found the best prop of all time nine years ago:

Will Matt Millen pick the correct team to win Super Bowl XLIII during the Pre-Game Show? Yes -225; No +185.

This was brilliant – if I do say so myself – because if you bet no and he picked the Cardinals, you were basically getting the Steelers moneyline at +185. And if he picked the Steelers, you were essentially getting a solid wager with Arizona moneyline. I ended up making $90 on the prop. There’s nothing like capitalizing on Millen’s incompetence (as long as there are no 100-percent USDA Men or kielbasas involved, of course).

Unfortunately, we missed out on a lock earlier. One commenter pointed out that the Patriots were -175 at Bovada and the Eagles were +180 in some books, which would’ve been guaranteed money or break even. Unfortunately, those numbers are now -180 and +170.

Here are some props I like:

1. Will both teams make a field goal of 33 yards or more in the game – No +125 (Bovada): Believe it or not, both participants have made a field goal of 33-plus in only 12 of the 51 Super Bowls.

2. New England wins by 1-6 points +300; Philadelphia wins by 1-6 points +425 (Bovada): I like this scheme because there’s a good chance we’ll get one of these two right. Most of the recent Super Bowls have been close, and the Patriots’ victories in their big games have been by 3, 3, 3, 4 and 6.

3. Points Scored in 2nd Half + OT PK -145 (Bovada): In the previous 31 Super Bowls, the second half is 20-10-1 versus the first half in terms of more points scored. So, in a sense, we’re getting a prop that hits about two out of three times at just -145.

4. Patriots Moneyline – -180 (Bovada): This is mostly for me as a hedge, but I still recommend it. There’s a decent chance the Patriots win by three, but regardless, it’s hard to imagine Tom Brady not winning somehow.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Rob Gronkowski has cleared concussion protocol, so he’ll be on the field Sunday. It’ll be interesting to see if the other questionable/probable Patriots are able to suit up as well, as I’m interested in seeing Alan Branch’s status. This spread hasn’t moved in the past two days, as there was very little action coming in on either side since I posted this pick. That will certainly change this weekend.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m heading out to the bar right now, as I mentioned in the Super Bowl LII Live Blog. I still like the Patriots, and I’m even going to increase this unit count a bit in the wake of the news that the flu bug circulated throughout the Eagles’ locker room. I don’t know if that’ll have an impact, but if it does, it won’t be good. I can’t forget that the Buccaneers, who had the same issue in Week 3, were blown out in Minnesota despite being favored by one. This spread is -4.5 in most books, but 5Dimes still has -4 listed, so I’m going to put three units on that. As for sharp action, there was pro money on the Eagles +6 and Patriots -4, so it’s mixed. That’s not surprising, as this is a difficult game to predict because of the Nick Foles uncertainty.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Sharp money coming in on the Eagles.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 55% (248,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

Tom Brady is 222-68 as a starter (164-113 ATS).

Tom Brady is 26-9 in the playoffs (17-18 ATS).

Tom Brady is 13-6 ATS in domes.

Bill Belichick is 17-10 ATS with extra rest.

Opening Line: Patriots -6.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: .

Super Bowl LII NFL Pick: Patriots 30, Eagles 24
Patriots -4 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Over 48 (0 Units) — Correct; $0

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Will both teams make a field goal of 33 yards or more in the game – No +125 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$200

New England wins by 1-6 points +300 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$200

Philadelphia wins by 1-6 points +425 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$200

Points Scored in 2nd Half + OT PK -145 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100

Moneyline: Patriots -180 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$360

NFL Picks - Nov. 20

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
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2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
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2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
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2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)