NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 12, 2016

NFL Picks (Preseason 2016): 12-7-1 (+$1,290)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2016): 13-3 (+$1,735) full review
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2016): 9-7 (-$430) full review
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2016): 7-7-2 (+$880) full review
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2016): 7-8 (-$70) full review
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2016): 6-7-1 (+$115) full review
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2016): 7-7-1 (+$515) full review
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2016): 11-4 (+$1,560) full review
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2016): 8-4-1 (-$60) full review
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2016): 5-6-2 (-$1,170) full review
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2016): 9-4-1 (+$80) full review
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2016): 7-7 (+$225)

NFL Picks (2016): 101-71-9 (+$4,670)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 28, 6:40 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 12 NFL Picks – Early Games

Seattle Seahawks (7-2-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-5)
Line: Seahawks by 5. Total: 46.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -6.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Seahawks -5.5.
Sunday, Nov 27, 4:05 PM
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The Game. Edge: Seahawks.

This is a reminder to make your pick for the WalterFootball.com 2016 NFL Survivor Pool if you’re still alive! We had 2,430 entries to start, with 412 entering Week 7. We’re now down to 140, as we only lost seven players last week, thanks to the Chiefs.

Make sure to check out our Fantasy Football Who to Start Weekly Rankings for weekly fantasy start-sit advice.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: I bet the Buccaneers wish that they could’ve taken on this Seattle squad earlier in the year when it was struggling. Russell Wilson was a shell of his former self against the Cardinals, for instance. Now, he’s completely healthy, and the Seahawks seem utterly unstoppable.

Wilson has a very easy matchup in this contest against Tampa’s woeful secondary. The Buccaneers have the worst safeties in the NFL, as they’ve been torched in most games this year. That didn’t happen last week, but only because Alex Smith is very limited and cannot connect downfield on a consistent basis. Wilson most certainly can, and he can also run around now. His rushing numbers didn’t stand out last week, but he caught a touchdown on a trick play. Thus, he’ll be very difficult to bring down, despite the continued poor play of his offensive line.

One area in which the Buccaneers will be able to excel on this side of the ball is in the ground game, as they happen to stop the rush well. C.J. Prosise has been knocked out for the remainder of the regular season, and while I expect Thomas Rawls to enjoy some nice performances down the stretch, I don’t think he’ll have one in Tampa.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Seahawks blew lots of coverages when Kam Chancellor was out of the lineup earlier in the year. Things improved upon his return, but Seattle now will be missing Earl Thomas for a game or two. Chancellor is the better of the two safeties, but Thomas will be missed. Cornerback Deshawn Shead could also be out with a hamstring injury.

However, it remains to be seen if Jameis Winston can take advantage of Thomas’ absence. We’ve seen Winston struggle when opposing defenses have taken away Mike Evans, and that’s precisely what the Seahawks will do. Richard Sherman will be able to blanket Evans, forcing Winston to look elsewhere. He’ll try to get the ball to Cameron Brate, but the Seahawks defend tight ends extremely well.

Running the ball won’t be much of an option either. Doug Martin looked very healthy against the Chiefs last week, but only as a pass-catcher. He was limited to just 2.6 yards per carry, and I have to imagine that the Seahawks will have similar success against him.

RECAP: The Buccaneers have battled two teams with elite No. 1 cornerbacks this year in the Cardinals and Broncos. They were blown out in both games, and I fear as though this may follow the same pattern. Winston has endured his worst games when he hasn’t been able to connect with Evans, and the Seahawks will make sure he’ll struggle to do so.

The Seahawks are just too hot to fade, anyway. They’ve begun one of their annual second-half spurts, so I wouldn’t recommend fading them unless the line happens to be incredibly high. Seattle, after all, is 18-3 against the spread in Week 11 or later since Wilson’s second year. That’s just insane. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, have a poor homefield advantage and have covered only once as hosts this year.

I’m not going to place any units on this contest because there’s no line value, but the Seahawks appear to be the right side.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This line continues to rise without any sharp money coming in on Tampa Bay. This is one large underdog I don’t expect to see professional action, as Seattle is just way too good to fade right now.

SATURDAY NOTES: A reader asked why I’m not betting the Seahawks after making such a great case for them. First of all, like I said, I’d be wary of betting publicly backed sides this week after the blood bath Vegas has endured last week and on Thanksgiving. Second, Seattle has lots of injuries, as Michael Bennett and Earl Thomas are out, while Justin Britt could also be missing. Third, this seems like a setup for a back-door Jameis Winston touchdown. I’m still picking the Seahawks, but I don’t want to bet on them this week.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s been sharp money on the Buccaneers on Sunday morning. This line has dropped to -5, which makes the Seahawks more appealing. However, like I said, I would be reluctant to bet highly backed teams this week.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

A no-brainer to most people.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 76% (23,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

Seahawks are 18-3 ATS in Week 11 or later since 2013.

Road Team is 73-41 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Seahawks are 32-41 ATS on the road since 2006 if they’re not coming off an away loss.

Buccaneers are 17-41 ATS at home in the previous 58 instances.

Buccaneers are 7-21 ATS as a home underdog since 2009.

Opening Line: Seahawks -5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: .

Week 12 NFL Pick: Seahawks 30, Buccaneers 17
Seahawks -5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 45 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Buccaneers 14, Seahawks 5

Carolina Panthers (4-6) at Oakland Raiders (8-2)
Line: Raiders by 3.5. Total: 49.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Raiders -3.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Raiders -4.
Sunday, Nov 27, 4:25 PM
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The Game. Edge: Raiders.

Emmitt on the Brink is back for Season 9! Season 8 saw Emmitt going to North Korea to stop Kim Jong-un from destroying the world. It featured a mind-blowing twist at the very end that you absolutely need to check out if you haven’t already.

Season 9 will deal with election stuff, and it begins with something strange happening to Emmitt while he’s stuck in traffic at a protest rally. In the 11th chapter, Can Emmitt escape from the college idiots who want to kill him for the comments he made? Will Emmitt locate the Mirror of Ra to reveal Hillary Clinton’s true identity?

OAKLAND OFFENSE: It’s sometimes easy to identify which team has a matchup edge. That was the case in the previous capsule, with Russell Wilson going against Tampa’s safeties. Here, Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper will have the luxury of battling one of the league’s worst group of cornerbacks.

Derek Carr got off to a bit of a slow start Monday night, but only because his players dropped four passes, one of which would’ve been a deep touchdown. With the Mexico distraction in the rear-view mirror, perhaps the Raiders will play a cleaner game of football, and if so, Carr will be able to torch Carolina’s poor secondary mercilessly. The Panthers will need to counter this by generating as much pressure on him as possible, but Carr happens to be protected by one of the top offensive lines in the NFL.

It also needs to be noted that Luke Kuechly is out with a concussion. It’s kind of silly that I waited this long to mention it, given how important Kuechly is to the defense. With Kuechly out of the lineup, it’s difficult to imagine the Panthers slowing the Raiders down at all.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: The Panthers also have a major injury concern on this side of the ball, and that would be to Ryan Kalil, who aggravated an injury Thursday night. Kalil has enjoyed extra time to heal, so in a must-win game, it’s difficult to imagine him not suiting up. However, will he be 100 percent? Can he remain in the game for 60 minutes this time? That all remains to be seen.

Even if Kalil plays, the Panthers will still have problems on the edge. That has been a recurring trend all year. Carolina was extremely fortunate to avoid teams with strong pass rushes last year until the Super Bowl. The 2016 campaign has proven to be much different, and this week, it’ll be Khalil Mack and Bruce Irvin’s turn to abuse Carolina’s poor tackles. This will make life difficult for Cam Newton, who will have trouble connecting with Kelvin Benjamin, as the No. 1 wideout will be dealing with one of Oakland’s excellent cornerbacks. Greg Olsen figures to have a big game, however.

I don’t think the Panthers will have much success running the ball with Jonathan Stewart either. I know Lamar Miller just had a great outing, but Oakland has been better versus the rush with Perry Riley now on the field. I do, however, expect Newton to pick up chunks of yardage with some scrambles.

RECAP: Remember the one theme I discussed earlier, where some disappointing teams (Bengals, Cardinals) have finally been priced correctly? Well, that’s still not the case with the Panthers.

I made this spread Raiders -4, factoring in Oakland’s poor homefield advantage. However, the Panthers are either +3.5 or +3, as they’re still getting way too much respect from the public. Casual bettors don’t want to accept the fact that Carolina just isn’t very good. The Raiders, on the other hand, are very good, and they should be able to win this game by four or more points.

I’m not betting this game because the line value isn’t there, plus the Panthers are way more desperate than the Raiders right now. In an ideal world, Carolina would’ve been +6, as public bettors would’ve been excited to bet the 8-2 Raiders. Alas, that is not the case, so this will be yet another zero-unit selection.

SportsLine’s Micah Roberts is 22-6 in college football Over-Under picks this season (+1534 profit). He’s also won his last 5 NFL Over-Under picks. You can get all of his plays by visiting SportsLine.com.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps bet down the Panthers earlier in the week, but they’re not taking Carolina at +3. In fact, there’s some take-back on the Raiders, as the juice has moved to -115 or -120. I still don’t have a strong feeling on this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: I can see the case for the Panthers, even though they’ll be missing Luke Kuechly, Ryan Kalil and Michael Oher. The Raiders won a game they shouldn’t have, so they could take this contest for granted. The Panthers, meanwhile, are absolutely desperate, as a seventh loss would end things.

FINAL THOUGHTS: While many sharps bet the Panthers earlier in the week, there’s been other professional money on the Raiders on Sunday morning, moving this line to -3.5. Either way, I don’t like this game.

The Psychology. Edge: Panthers.

This is a must-win for the Panthers, while the Raiders may not be fully focused after what happened Monday night.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 51% (26,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Panthers.

Raiders are 9-33 ATS at home vs. teams with losing records.

Raiders are 15-28 ATS after a win since 2009.

Raiders are 6-24 ATS as home favorites since November 2005.

Opening Line: Raiders -4.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: .

Week 12 NFL Pick: Raiders 24, Panthers 20
Raiders -3 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 49 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Raiders 35, Panthers 32

New England Patriots (8-2) at New York Jets (3-7)
Line: Patriots by 8. Total: 47.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Patriots -8.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Patriots -7 (Fitzpatrick) or Patriots -9.5 (Petty).
Sunday, Nov 27, 4:25 PM
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The Game. Edge: Patriots.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is Cobb Salads and Gym Desk Workers Who Hate Me.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: When Rob Gronkowski was ruled out ahead of the 49ers matchup, many assumed that the Patriots would be able to score at will versus San Francisco’s sorry defense regardless. That didn’t happen, as New England was stuck on 13 points well into the third quarter. The Patriots finally began clicking toward the end of the game, prevailing and covering without their top play-maker.

However, Gronkowski will need to be on the field for the Patriots to distance themselves late in the game against the Jets. New York’s secondary sucks, but the Patriots don’t really have the deep passing attack to take full advantage of this. Brady makes smart, intermediate throws, while power runs with LeGarrette Blount are mixed in. The Jets will struggle a bit versus the intermediate passes because of poor play from the linebackers and slot cornerback. David Harris is solid, but New York has nothing else at linebacker.

Fortunately for the Jets, they do stop the run extremely well, while their defensive front does a good job of hounding opposing passers. The interior of the Patriots’ offensive line isn’t all that great, so Brady will have to release the ball quickly to avoid pressure.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Going back to Ryan Fitzpatrick isn’t the best for the Jets’ long-term plans – they really need to see what they have in Christian Hackenberg – but Todd Bowles told the media that he would lose the support of the locker room if Fitzpatrick weren’t named the starting quarterback. The players have decided that Fitzpatrick gives them their best chance of winning. While they’re right, a victory would be detrimental in the long run, as it would worsen draft positioning. Plus, the Jets won’t learn anything about their younger quarterbacks. It’s very foolish to go back to Fitzpatrick, as Bowles is effectively allowing the inmates to run the asylum.

Having said all of that, Fitzpatrick does have a promising outlook versus the Patriots. A major reason why Fitzpatrick has sucked this year is poor offensive line play, but that won’t be as much of a factor, given that the Patriots have absolutely no pass rush. They couldn’t even get to Russell Wilson, as Bill Belichick has foolishly traded away two extremely talented front-seven players for almost nothing. Fitzpatrick figures to have a decent amount of time in the pocket, though it’ll really help matters if Nick Mangold returns from injury. Mangold has enjoyed an entire week to heal, but it still doesn’t sound like he’s completely healthy.

Nevertheless, New York should be able to run the ball well against the Patriots, who lost monstrous nose tackle Alan Branch to a suspension. Matt Forte will have a huge performance, making life even easier for Fitzpatrick.

RECAP: I like the Jets a bit. I made this line -7, as the Patriots have gotten weaker after losing Branch and Jamie Collins. They’re on the cusp of making my overrated list. Brady is still great, but the defense can’t rush the passer, and now it won’t be able to stop the run without Branch. Most of the Patriots’ victories ever since Brady returned to the lineup have been pretty underwhelming. The Jets, meanwhile, have been competitive in most games with Fitzpatrick at the helm. This is also their Super Bowl, so I expect their energy level to be much higher than New England’s.

I’m hoping this line goes up, so maybe I can place a third unit on the Jets. The unit count may change anyway, depending on what happens with the Gronkowski and Mangold injuries. Right now, this pick assumes that Grokowski will suit up, while Mangold will sit. If anything changes, I’ll make the appropriate adjustments.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It sounds like Gronkowski will sit. That’s good news, so I’ll lock in the Jets at +8 for two units. That line is currently available at Bovada. It has fallen to +7 -105 at some other books.

SATURDAY NOTES: Nick Mangold could be out, while the Patriots may have Alan Branch and Jabaal Sheard, as the former is appealing his suspension. I’d actually drop this to one unit if I could, but I’ve locked this in already.

FINAL THOUGHTS: In addition to Branch and Sheard, Rob Gronkowski and Martellus Bennett are going to play. I regret locking this pick in. I’d move this to one or even zero units if I could.

The Psychology. Edge: Jets.

This is the Jets’ Super Bowl.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.

A no-brainer to most people.

Percentage of money on New England: 80% (30,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

History: Patriots have won 21 of the last 27 meetings.

History: Home Team has won 12 of the last 15 meetings.

Tom Brady is 192-65 as a starter (146-106 ATS).

Bill Belichick is 18-7 ATS in his second-consecutive road game.

Patriots are 47-36 ATS vs. AFC East opponents since 2001.

Patriots are 8-12 ATS as road favorites since 2013.

Jets are 10-5 ATS as underdogs of 7+ since 2010.

Opening Line: Patriots -8.5.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: .

Week 12 NFL Pick: Patriots 26, Jets 23
Jets +8 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Over 47 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Patriots 22, Jets 17

Kansas City Chiefs (7-3) at Denver Broncos (7-3)
Line: Broncos by 3.5. Total: 40.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Broncos -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Broncos -3.
Sunday, Nov 27, 8:30 PM
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The Game. Edge: Chiefs.

Trolling will continue. I can’t attack the NFL.com or ESPN boards because the fascist scum working at Facebook prevented me from making posts that others besides my friends can see. They’ve also been penalizing the other trolls. However, I have been hitting up the team pages on Facebook.

The Seahawks had a big win over the Patriots lately, which gave me an opportunity to talk some trash:

I don’t think Hooked on Phonics could even save Mario Migelini right now. He’s just a lost cause.

Here’s something from Seattle’s page:

Thanks for the correction, David. And way to go, William, for agreeing with Mario. I guess William has seen Mario’s illiterate posts before and has grown used to them.

DENVER OFFENSE: Many were shocked that the Chiefs lost to the Buccaneers, but they would have prevailed if Alex Smith hadn’t thrown that horrible interception into the end zone. Tampa was able to hang around because Marcus Peters was out of the lineup, which was absolutely huge because the Chiefs had no one capable of covering Mike Evans.

Fortunately for Kansas City, Peters is projected to be back on the field. Given that the Broncos possess two dynamic receivers, having Peters available is crucial for the Chiefs, as Peters will be able to erase one from the game plan. Unfortunately for Kansas City, it doesn’t have another talented cornerback in the wake of Sean Smith’s departure, so Denver’s other wideout, presumably Emmanuel Sanders, could go off.

The Broncos will need a big game from Sanders, as well as Trevor Siemian, because they won’t be able to run the ball very effectively, thanks to Kansas City’s stellar rush defense. This could pose a problem for Siemian, as Tamba Hali and Justin Houston project to have great matchups against Denver’s tackles. Russell Okung has just been sub par this year, while Donald Stephenson has been one of the worst edge blockers in the NFL.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Broncos obviously have one of the top defenses in the NFL, while he Chiefs have just a middling offense that is hindered by Alex Smith’s mediocrity. However, as odd as it sounds, it seems as though Kansas City has a major edge against the Broncos on this side of the ball.

There are two things the Chiefs do very well offensively. The first is pounding the rock with Spencer Ware. The Broncos have been surprisingly susceptible to power running attacks this season. We saw it in the Oakland game – the Raiders were able to trample the Broncos quite easily. Ware figures to be in for a big evening. The second strong aspect of Kansas City’s scoring attack is working the middle with Travis Kelce. The Broncos have given up lots of big plays to tight ends this year, so I like Kelce’s chances of going off.

Meanwhile, Denver’s defensive strengths will be minimized. The Broncos have two elite edge rushers, but Smith releases the ball quickly and tends to pick up chunks of yardage on the ground. Denver also has a pair of All-Pro cornerbacks, but the Chiefs have proven that they can win without going to their receivers.

RECAP: I liked the Chiefs a good bit at +3.5 when this spread opened, but the line has fallen to +3, which is the number I came up with. I didn’t anticipate the spread dropping so quickly like that, but the sharps apparently believe that Kansas City is the right side.

It’s unfortunate we’re getting no line value – this would trend into November NFL Pick of the Month territory at +6 or higher – but I still think the Chiefs are a good pick because of how well they match up with the Broncos. So, despite the mediocre spread, I’m willing to go two units on Kansas City.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Broncos moved to -3.5 on Thursday morning. I’m actually not so sure I’m going to keep two units on this contest, so I’m going to think some more about this and perhaps make an adjustment on Saturday.

FRIDAY UPDATE: I’m dropping this to zero units. The Chiefs are just so banged up. Dee Ford and Jeremy Maclin are out, while Marcus Peters and Derrick Johnson are questionable and may not be 100 percent. Meanwhile, this is the healthiest the Broncos have been for a long time. I’d still favor the Chiefs at +3.5, but not enough to wager on them.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m actually going to change my pick. The Chiefs have even more injuries than I originally thought. Steven Nelson is out, so I have no idea how the Chiefs will Denver’s elite receivers. Jaye Howard is out. In addition to Peters and Johnson, Dontari Poe is also hobbled. The Broncos, meanwhile, will have Derek Wolfe and Aqib Talib back. With that in mind, Denver seems like the right side.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Today was an absolute disaster. It was the Murphy’s Law of NFL weeks, as everything that could’ve gone wrong in the 1 p.m. games did go wrong. I noted that two of my top three picks were taken away from me when Andrew Luck and Jay Cutler were ruled out, so that led me talking myself into games I didn’t like very much (i.e. Texans). Dumb. Just dumb. Anyway, this is going to be a zero-unit pick on the Broncos, as the Chiefs just have way too many injuries. If the Chiefs were healthy, I’d like them for a unit or two, but the Broncos are finally healthy and should be able to take advantage of that.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Denver: 59% (62,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

History: Broncos have won 8 of the last 9 meetings.

Opening Line: Broncos -3.5.

Opening Total: 39.5.

Weather: .

Week 12 NFL Pick: Broncos 17, Chiefs 13
Broncos -3.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 39.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Chiefs 30, Broncos 27

Green Bay Packers (4-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-5)
Line: Eagles by 4. Total: 47.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Eagles -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Eagles -2.5.
Monday, Nov 28, 8:30 PM
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The Game. Edge: None.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have some bald dude and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, and aloof people like Dan Fouts. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the great city of Philadelphia! Tonight, my Philadelphia Eagles take on the Green Bay Packers. Guys, I don’t know if you heard, but it was recently the 20-year anniversary of my second-favorite movie ever, Space Jam, right behind Little Giants because I always had a crush on Ice Box. Space Jam exposed Shawn Bradley for the fraud he really is. F***ing a**hole ruined my Philadelphia 76ers. Anyway, remembering that movie made me realize that if they could steal the powers of basketball players, then I can steal the powers of players like Aaron Rodgers and give them to Carson Wentz!

Emmitt: Mugsy, the alien in that movie use a golden balls to steal the electricity of the basketball player, but you do not have golden ball that I can see, unless you hiding a regular ball and you going to paint it with the color to make it gold … I forgetted already what color paint make the color gold.

Herm: GOLD MAKE THE COLOR GOLD! GOLD PAINT MAKES THE COLOR GOLD! GET SOME GOLD PAINT! SPLISH SPLASH WITH THE BRUSH! START PAINTING! GET THE GOLD COLOR! THAT’S HOW YOU GET THE GOLD! UNELSS YOU’RE IN THE OLYMPICS! THEN YOU GET GOLD BY WINNING A GOLD MEDAL! HOW DO YOU GET THE GOLD!? BY WINNING FIRST PLACE! NOT SECOND PLACE! SECOND GET THE SILVER! FIRST GET THE GOLD! KEVIN GOTTA GO TO THE OLYMPICS AND GET THE GOLD! NOT THE SILVER! SILVER MEANS SECOND PLACE! CAN’T GET SECOND PLACE! GOTTA GET FIRST PLACE! BECAUSE FIRST IS THE WORST! SECOND IS THE BEST! THIRD IS THE ONE WITH THE HAIRY CHEST! FOURTH IS… uhh… Herm forgot what fourth is… umm…

Millen: Herman, third is not the one with the hairy chest. When I’m with a 100-percent USDA Man, if he has a hairy chest, I stop everything and take him into the bathroom. Then, I shave his chest hair, unless there’s no razor, and in that case, I take my teeth and bite down on the hair and rip it out. Either way, I save the hair and roll a kielbasa in it, and then I have the 100-percent USDA Man ram that kielbasa up my backside, making him punish me for my bad behavior.

Reilly: I don’t care about your gay tactics, Millen. And Emmitt, I have no golden ball. But it’s funny that you should mention balls because I plan to remove Aaron Rodgers’ balls with this hatchet and then present them to my Carson Wentz so that he can use Aaron Rodgers’ power.

Tollefson: Kevin, may I offer a suggestion? After you cut Aaron Rodgers’ balls off, how about you give them to me so I can sell them? I can get at least $50,000 for them on eBay, but I’m thinking they could fetch $75,000 on the black market. We can split it 50-50. You can trust me, I’m completely honest.

Fouts: And here’s what he means by black market. Black market is another name for African American market. Because black and African American are synonyms, so they mean the same thing. Let’s try another example. If I say white market, you can also call it Caucasian market. If there’s a yellow market, you can call it Asian market. If there’s a red market, you can call it Indian market. If there’s a blue market, you can call it French market. If there’s a bull market, you can call it Snake market. If there’s a bear market, you can call it Russian market. Because of Russian bears. They are bears, who are Russian.

Wolfley: I LOVE RUSSIAN BEARS, BUT I ALSO LOVE AUSTRALIAN BEARS AND EVEN INDIAN BEARS. KEVIN, LOOK IT’S AARON RODGERS, TIME TO CUT OFF HIS NUTS!

Millen: No, wait! Aaron! Aaron! They’re going to cut off your balls!

Aaron Rodgers: What? Why?

Millen: Because they are mean! Hey, since I saved your life, I mean your balls’ life, how about you come back to my hotel so I can ram a kielbasa up your 100-percent USDA backside?

Aaron Rodgers: Get away from me, sicko!

Reilly: Haha that was great! Millen, you got pwned! Nothing could make me upset right now!

Charles Davis’ Voice: Hey, Kevin, let’s discuss presidential candidates who lost the election, Kevin. Let’s begin with Donald Trump, Kevin. He’s sure to lose the election, Kevin. That’s because Hillary Clinton is incredible, Kevin. Let’s talk about John Kerry, Kevin. Not as good as Hillary Clinton, Kevin. Why not discuss John McCain, Kevin? He’s way inferior to Hillary Clinton, Kevin. Let’s try Al Gore, Kevin? He said he invented the Internet, Kevin. But Hillary Clinton really invented the Internet, Kevin. Hillary Clinton is incredible, Kevin. Let’s name another losing candidate, Kevin. I’ll give lots of guesses, oh you are foolish for saying Carson Wentz, Kevin. Wrong guess, Kevin. The answer is Richard Nixon, Kevin. Much dumber than Hillary Clinton, Kevin.

Reilly: WHERE’S CHARLES DAVIS’ VOICE COMING FROM!? I’M GOING TO USE MY HATCHET TO RIP HIS NUTS OFF BECAUSE EVEN IN DEATH, HE’S PISSING ME OFF! We’ll be back after this!

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Someone appeared to have stolen Aaron Rodgers’ mojo when the Packer quarterback went three-and-out on the first three drives of the Sunday night game last week, but the wind played a big factor. Rodgers was able to get into a groove going with the wind in the second and fourth quarters, and he was able to finish 26-of-41 for 351 yards and three touchdowns.

The wind isn’t expected to be as much of a factor in this contest, but T.J. Lang’s absence could be. It’s unclear if Lang will be able to play, but the Packers will need him on the field to block Fletcher Cox. Tackles David Bakhtiari and Bryan Bulaga should be able to handle Vinny Curry and Brandon Graham, but Don Barclay would be the major liability if Lang couldn’t go.

That said, the Packers do have some things going in their favor in this matchup. One would be Philadelphia’s secondary. The cornerback situation is a mess, especially with Leodis McKelvin possibly out. McKelvin isn’t very good, yet he’s the best cornerback the Eagles have, and he could be out with a concussion. Also, the Packers might actually have a running game for once. They claimed Christine Michael off waivers, and they’ve been getting him ready for this game.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Green Bay’s issues in the secondary have been well-documented. The cornerback play has been even worse than Philadelphia’s, and most teams have taken advantage of it this year. However, I’m not sure if the Eagles will be able to capitalize on deep shots like the Redskins were able to Sunday night. Philadelphia’s wideouts are incredibly pedestrian. Jordan Matthews is fine, but he drops his share of passes. Elsewhere… umm… Dorial Green-Beckham has been OK at times? Paul Turner had a strong preseason?

I do expect Carson Wentz to have a solid showing, but I don’t think he’ll be overly dominant. The offensive line is a concern, as it won’t be nearly as dominant as Washington’s was. Wentz will have most of his success connecting with Zach Ertz, who has been coming on the past several weeks. The Packers are woeful when it comes to defending tight ends, so I expect Ertz to go off.

Meanwhile, there are some concerns about the Philadelphia running backs. Ryan Mathews might be a game-time decision, while Darren Sproles is also banged up. Wendell Smallwood may have to start, and he could have some success. The Packers have been stellar against the run for most of the year, but their ground support will be weaker in the wake of Blake Martinez’s knee injury.

RECAP: Maybe I’m a glutton for punishment, but despite the brutal beating I took with the Packers last Sunday night, I’m wagering on them again.

The narrative is that the Packers are done, but at 4-6, they still have a chance to win the division. They absolutely have to win this game, or they’re finished, and I expect them to play that way. I know they’ve been awful the past two weeks, but they overlooked the Titans and then lost to the Redskins, but I think that latter loss was more about the Redskins being great than the Packers being terrible. I don’t think Green Bay is terrible at all; the team nearly won in Atlanta in a few weeks ago, and I consider the Eagles and Falcons to be on about the same level.

I think the Eagles and Packers are about on the same level as well. Both seem like 8-8-caliber squads, and remember that the Packers looked like they were going to push at the superior Redskins prior to Jared Cook’s fumble.

Also, we’re getting some line value with the Packers. I made this spread -2.5, factoring in that Philadelphia doesn’t deserve a full three points for being at home. The Packers being at +3.5 compared to +2.5 is only a difference of a point, but going through +3 is a huge deal.

With that in mind, I’m kicking myself. The Packers were +4 early Tuesday, but I didn’t jump on that line. The sharps bet that down rather quickly, as this spread is now +3.5 across the board. I still like the Packers for three units, but I’ll increase the unit count if a +4 pops up again.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This line has risen to -4 across the board, so I’m going to lock it in at three units. Maybe this line keeps going up, and if so, I’ll feel stupid. However, I feel safer getting +4, and there’s not much of a difference between +4 and +5 or so. I don’t see this going to +6.

SATURDAY NOTES: The sharps have begun betting the Packers, dropping this line from +4 to +3.5. You can still get +4 -115 at Bovada. I like Green Bay a lot, as Jake Ryan and Damarious Randall will be returning. I’m considering placing a fourth unit on the Packers.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I was disappointed to hear that Jake Ryan won’t be healthy tonight. Damarious Randall will be returning, but I was really hoping for Ryan. However, the Eagles now have the injury concerns, as guard Brandon Brooks was hospitalized. No one on ESPN is talking about it – all the talking heads have been discussing is “What’s wrong with the Packers?” for the past two hours – but Brooks missing is a huge deal. The Eagles already had offensive line issues, and Brooks has been Philadelphia’s best blocker after losing Lane Johnson. Not having Brooks is going to be a problem, especially with little time to prepare for his absence. Also, the sharps took the Packers at +4.5 this evening. With all of that in mind, I’m going to increase my unit count to four. The media is making things out like the sky is falling in Green Bay, and yet, the Packers were a Jared Cook fumble away from pushing against the Redskins last week – and Washington is certainly better than Philadelphia.

The Psychology. Edge: Packers.

The Packers will be looking to bounce back from a completely embarrassing loss on national TV.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 52% (51,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

Aaron Rodgers is 72-47 ATS since 2009.

Aaron Rodgers is 32-24 ATS on the road as long as he’s not favored by 6.5 or more points.

Aaron Rodgers is 22-10 ATS after a loss.

Aaron Rodgers is 14-12 ATS as an underdog.

Eagles are 21-33 ATS at home since 2010.

Favorites after playing the Seahawks are 12-27 ATS.

Opening Line: Packers -3.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: .

Week 12 NFL Pick: Eagles 28, Packers 27
Packers +4 (4 Units) — Correct; +$400
Over 47.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Packers 27, Eagles 13

Week 12 NFL Picks – Early Games
Washington at Dallas, Pittsburgh at Indianapolis, Minnesota at Detroit, NY Giants at Cleveland, Arizona at Atlanta, Cincinnati at Baltimore, Los Angeles at New Orleans, San Diego at Houston, Jacksonville at Buffalo, Tennessee at Chicago, San Francisco at Miami

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser: Texans +8.5, Patriots -2 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100

Moneyline: Texans +125 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$50

Moneyline: Bengals +155 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$50

Moneyline: Cardinals +165 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$50

Moneyline: Rams +310 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$50

Moneyline: Packers +160 (0.5 Units) — Correct; +$80

NFL Picks - Nov. 17

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 13

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 12

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

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2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,499-3,231-202, 52.0% (+$17,105)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,126-1,010-57 (52.7%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 568-502-25 (53.1%)
Career Over-Under: 2,935-2,908-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-36-1 (56.6%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 5-3	Bears: 4-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-3
Eagles: 4-5	Lions: 8-1	Falcons: 5-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 5-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 4-5
Redskins: 4-5	Vikings: 3-6	Saints: 5-5	Seahawks: 6-2

Bills: 3-7	Bengals: 2-8	Colts: 5-5	Broncos: 6-4
Dolphins: 3-6	Browns: 3-6	Jaguars: 2-7	Chargers: 5-3
Jets: 5-5	Ravens: 4-5	Texans: 4-6	Chiefs: 3-5
Patriots: 5-3	Steelers: 3-6	Titans: 5-3	Raiders: 4-5

Divisional: 18-22 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 14-13 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 30-24 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 18-27 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 30-41 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-7 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 11-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-7 (2011-23: 33-37)