Minnesota Vikings (6-4) at Detroit Lions (6-4) Line: Lions by 2. Total: 42.5. Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Lions -2.
Walt's Calculated Line: Lions -2.
Thursday, Nov 24, 12:30 PM
Comment on this game
The Game. Edge: Vikings.
WEEK 11 RECAP: Man, Week 11 looked like it had the potential of being an all-time best week. Following the early games, I was 5-4 (+$1,175). I hit all three of my big plays in the Vikings -1.5, Buccaneers +7 and Giants +7.5. Unfortunately, things fell apart after that, with the Rams and Packers being big losers. Unfortunately, I finished 7-7 (+$225).
I got the Rams and Packers wrong for very different reasons. Los Angeles was clearly the right side; the Dolphins, down three offensive linemen, were doing nothing the entire game. Absolutely nothing. However, the Rams self-destructed with numerous, ridiculous penalties in the five minutes, giving Miami a free victory. That was a horrible beat.
On the other hand, Packers +3 was just a ridiculously bad pick on my part. I knew that the Redskins were underrated, but yet I still went with this underachieving, struggling Green Bay squad for some reason. The only explanation I can offer up is that I'm an idiot. Seriously, I can't get over how bad that pick was. That sort of horrible selection is worth a one-week suspension, at the very least.
I'd also like to note how crazy the results were this week. There were so many games that could've gone either way. Saints-Panthers, Titans-Colts, Jaguars-Lions, Bills-Bengals, Ravens-Cowboys, Steelers-Browns, Dolphins-Rams and Texans-Raiders all could've had different spread results had those games been either two minutes shorter or longer. That's eight of the 14 games being 50-50 propositions! It just goes to show how difficult NFL handicapping can be, as there's just so much variance involved.
DETROIT OFFENSE: I didn't include the Cardinals-Vikings in that 50-50 list because Minnesota's defense was dominating the game. I don't think Carson Palmer was scoring anytime soon. Beginning in the middle of the second quarter, the stop unit figured things out and clamped down on Arizona's offense. This wasn't a surprise, as the Vikings welcomed back several players who were out of the lineup, two of whom happen to be defensive backs. Xavier Rhodes and Captain Munnerlyn returning helped out a lot, while Eric Kendricks' presence was huge as well.
The Vikings still appear to be soft up the middle because Sharrif Floyd is out, but the Lions can't exploit that because they run the ball very poorly. That's been fine for them thus far because Matthew Stafford has been terrific in most games this year. That includes the first meeting between the two teams in Week 9, when Stafford led a game-tying drive in the final seconds and then marched down the field in overtime. Stafford was 23-of-36 for 219 yards, two touchdowns and an interception in that victory.
However, it needs to be noted that Stafford wasn't going up against Kendricks or Munnerlyn. He'll have a more difficult time moving the chains with the Vikings' defense fully intact.
MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The Lions didn't have a key player in their secondary either during the first matchup between these teams. Darius Slay was out with an injury, and his presence on the field versus the Jaguars was enormous. I'm wondering, however, if he'll follow Stefon Diggs into the slot. Patrick Peterson did that, but some cornerbacks tend to stay outside.
If Slay follows Diggs around, Sam Bradford will once again have to resort to throwing to his other options. Fortunately for him, Detroit's secondary doesn't have any other dominant corners, though Nevin Lawson has done a good job this year. Bradford will pepper Adam Thielen, Cordarrelle Patterson and Kyle Rudolph with more targets. Rudolph appears to have an easy matchup against Detroit's poor tight ends.
Meanwhile, something interesting happened in the Arizona victory for the Vikings, and that was T.J. Clemmings actually being functional as a blind-side protector. Clemmings screwed up at the end on Bradford's strip-sack, but he played a solid game overall. Unfortunately for Clemmings, he has another difficult matchup going up against Ziggy Ansah, though it could be argued that Chandler Jones was a greater threat.
RECAP: There's not much of a betting opportunity in the first Thanksgiving game, unfortunately. There's just no line value. I have the Vikings marked down as being about a point better than the Lions, so I would've made this spread +2. There's not much of a difference between +2.5 and +2, however.
The revenge angle might be enough for some people. For those wondering, underdogs in same-season revenge games in the regular season are 476-407 (53.9%) against the spread, dating back to 1989. However, I hate trends, so that's not enough for me to bet this game. I will pick the Vikings for office pool purposes, however.
I'll be posting NFL Picks all day Tuesday. Follow me at @walterfootball for updates.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There was sharp action on the Vikings on Wednesday night, as this line moved down from -2.5 to -1.5. It's rebounded a bit and moved back up to -2.5 in some books Thursday morning, probably because Stefon Diggs was ruled out. However, it's dropped once again to +2. The betting action appears to be going both ways here, and I still don't find this game very appealing. I was hoping for Vikings +3. That's actually available at Bovada, but for -125, which I'm not willing to pay for a game I'm not crazy about.
FINAL THOUGHTS: You wouldn't think much would change in the hour since I posted Thursday Thoughts, but sharp money once again dropped this line to -1.5. That's good news for us Viking backers, especially with the line of +2 still being available at Bovada.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
Percentage of money on Detroit: 60% (29,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Vikings.
History: Vikings have won 26 of the last 34 meetings.
Mike Zimmer is 30-13 ATS as head coach of the Vikings.
Lions are 4-8 ATS as a Thanksgiving host since 2002.
Matthew Stafford is 6-10 ATS as a favorite following 2+ wins.
Washington Redskins (6-3-1) at Dallas Cowboys (9-1) Line: Cowboys by 5.5. Total: 52.5. Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -6.5.
Walt's Calculated Line: Cowboys -5.5.
Thursday, Nov 24, 4:30 PM
Comment on this game
The Game. Edge: Cowboys.
I posted betting trends and such in this spot over the past couple of years, but I won't be doing that as much because I'll be moving away from trends. Instead, I'll list some underrated observations that the media either isn't discussing or is misinforming the public about. I think I'll do this in conjunction with overrated and underrated teams...
Underrated NFL Teams:
San Diego Chargers: In the wake of their latest loss to the Dolphins, I can go back to calling the Chargers underrated. They've endured some horrible luck this year and could easily be 7-3, 8-2 or even 9-1 right now. That misfortune continued at Denver a couple of weeks ago, where a couple of tipped passes and bad goal-line play-calling decided the game. The Miami contest was weird; the Chargers looked like they were going to win, but Philip Rivers uncharacteristically self-destructed in the fourth quarter. San Diego's defense is much better now with Joey Bosa on the field, as he has been absolutely dominant.
Los Angeles Rams: The Rams were the better team in their matchup against the Dolphins - until the final five minutes when they began self-destructing with stupid penalties. Earlier, most people may have missed the fact that the Rams were without two of their defensive studs, Robert Quinn and Michael Brockers, against the Bills and Lions. Despite this, Los Angeles and Buffalo were tied at 16 late in the game when Case Keenum lofted a horrible pick-six. The same thing occurred against the Lions. Los Angeles was the better team against the Giants, but just killed itself with dumb mistakes. After that, the Rams outgained the Panthers in terms of yards per play, 5.1-3.9, but some blunders ended up costing them.
Indianapolis Colts: I think the Colts are trending into underrated territory for the first time all year. I don't normally like designating a team as underrated following a victory, but it doesn't seem like the public understands what happened to Indianapolis. The Colts have gotten some of its better players back from injury. This includes Mike Adams, a stellar safety, and Jack Mewhort, the team's best offensive lineman. Also, some of the Colts' young players have been playing better than some of the veteran scrubs they replaced, which includes speedy linebacker Edwin Jackson and cornerback Rashaan Melvin. The Colts have been pretty impressive ever since their blowout home loss to the Chiefs, upsetting the Packers and handling business at home versus the Titans. (Note: Ignore the Colts this week with Andrew Luck out.)
Overrated NFL Teams:
New York Giants: The Giants might just be the worst 7-3 team of all time. I don't understand how they keep lucking out like this. They would've lost to the Bears had Chicago not seen Josh Sitton, Zach Miller and Tracy Porter all get knocked out before the halfway point of the third quarter; Chicago was winning at halftime, but then the injuries happened. The Giants trailed for most of the second half against the Bengals at home. They were outgained by a whole yard per play against the Eagles, but were able to win because of Doug Pederson stupidity. They only won in London because the Rams wrecked themselves with dumb mistakes, and they probably wouldn't have prevailed against Baltimore had the Ravens not lost Jimmy Smith and Terrell Suggs in the second half. Prior to that, the Giants were not competitive against the Vikings or Packers. It would make more sense to me if they were 3-7 or 4-6 right now, as they can't block or run the ball.
Denver Broncos: The Broncos became known as a great team because of two marquee victories to begin the season. The first was against the Panthers, who started 1-5. Graham Gano whiffed on a kick, which would've given Carolina the victory. The second was at Cincinnati, a team that has been a disappointment this year as well. Plus, the Bengals had to play in four days. Since then, the Broncos won at Tampa (everyone does that), beat the Texans in a game that was 14-9 late in the third quarter prior to a Houston fumble deep in Denver territory, avenged a loss to the Chargers with the help of numerous tipped interceptions and bad goal-line play-calling, and beat the Saints in a game in which they were dominated because of fluky Michael Thomas fumbles and a blocked extra point. The Broncos are a good team because of their defense, but they were never great.
Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins were once incredibly underrated. They were 1-4, but were getting all of their talented offensive linemen back from injury. Now, at 6-4, Miami is very overrated. Branden Albert, Mike Pouncey and Laremy Tunsil are now hurt again. That's precisely why the Dolphins did absolutely nothing versus the Rams until very late when Los Angeles self-destructed with horrific personal-foul penalties. Miami won't win very many games with a banged-up blocking unit.
Atlanta Falcons: Of all the overrated NFL teams, the Falcons are the least-egregious. However, I can't get over how they were bullied in the trenches by a Philadelphia team that was stomped on by the Seahawks. Even Atlanta's victory over Tampa wasn't overly impressive, as the Buccaneers were up, 14-13, prior to losing their starting center. Prior to that, the Falcons beat the Packers in the final minute, but that's looking so much less impressive in the wake of Green Bay's struggles since that game.
WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Kirk Cousins' performance against the woeful Packers' secondary was great, but it might end up being the worst thing that has happened to the Redskins. Cousins was awesome in that game, for sure, but it was kind of hard for him not to be, given how open some of his receivers were. Ripping the ball through the wind was impressive, but he's still tied for second in should-have-been interceptions this year. Cousins is certainly going to get a huge contract now, which will destroy the depth of Washington's roster, just like it did for Baltimore's.
In the present, however, Cousins stands a good chance of beating Dallas' secondary. The Cowboys are still missing Morris Claiborne and Barry Church, so a hot Cousins figures to pass all over Dallas, especially when considering that his offensive line is likely to keep him clean. I thought Trent Williams' absence would slow down Washington's offense, but reserve Ty Nsekhe has been a solid replacement.
Cousins won't have to do all the work, as Robert Kelley figures to be able to generate some tough yards once again, as Dallas is pretty mediocre when it comes to stopping the run. I have to imagine that people who had the Packers on a tease were pissed when R. Kelly had a long run at the end of the game, but Fat Rob specializes in gaining three or four yards when there's absolutely nothing there, and I don't see why he would suddenly regress versus the Cowboys.
DALLAS OFFENSE: Of course, Kelley's running is nothing compared to Ezekiel Elliott's. The dynamic rookie was actually shut down in the first half last week, as Baltimore's terrific rush defense limited him to just 26 yards on the ground. However, the Cowboys' offensive line was awesome in the second half, and Elliott was able to wear down the Ravens, as Dallas grinded out yet another victory.
Elliott will have an even better matchup in this spot, as the Redskins have been atrocious against the run all year. The Packers couldn't expose this with James Starks, but you better believe that the Cowboys are going to exploit this weakness. Having extra motivation from playing on Thanksgiving will provide an even extra unnecessary boost for Elliott, who could conceivably eclipse the 200-yard barrier in this contest.
The Redskins have a better chance of covering the pass, as Josh Norman will be draped all over Dez Bryant. However, the Redskins happen to be weak versus tight ends - we just saw what Jared Cook did to them - so I'm expecting Jason Witten to have a big game, as Dak Prescott capitalizes on Washington's defense being so extremely focused on containing Elliott.
RECAP: If this game were being played on a normal Sunday under the same circumstances, I think I'd be picking the Redskins. This line is 1.5 points too high, in my estimation. Besides, the possibility of Cousins throwing a back-door touchdown to trim the margin to anywhere between three and six points would be very realistic.
However, I think the scheduling dynamics need to be factored in. The Redskins were absolutely screwed, having to play on a Sunday night and then being asked to travel to play at 4:15 Eastern just four days later. That's absolutely brutal. One of Bill Simmons or Cousin Sal called it unprecedented, but it actually happened to the Cowboys a couple of years ago. They were demolished by Chip Kelly's Eagles on Thanksgiving.
With that in mind, I'm going to lay the points with the Cowboys. I'm not going to bet this game, as -7 is a lot to cover against a very good Redskins squad, but Washington could be gassed, allowing Dallas to come away with an easy victory.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Here's the biggest sharp movement of the day. This spread has gone from +7.5 to +5.5 in some books (Pinnacle, 5Dimes). A two-point movement that goes through two key numbers in less than 24 hours screams Billy Walters involvement, making the Cowboys a scary selection. However, maybe the Cowboys will win by six and cover both ways. I still can't get over Washington's poor scheduling; otherwise, I would've taken them at +7.5.
FINAL THOUGHTS: What a depressing way to end the first Thanksgiving game, as Cordarrelle Patterson lining up incorrectly gave the Lions a victory. That was a 50-50 game, however, and this one might be as well, as I just don't have a strong opinion on it. The Redskins would've been the pick at +7 and +7.5 if this were on a Sunday, but they might be exhausted after playing on such short rest. Barely anyone is mentioning that, but it could really cost Washington. However, this number is too high - even at +5.5. That's what it has fallen to across the board, as sharp betting action has moved this number down two points. If you like the Redskins and still haven't bet them for some reason, +6.5 -105 is available at Bovada.
Pittsburgh Steelers (5-5) at Indianapolis Colts (5-5) Line: Steelers by 8. Total: 50. Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Steelers -3.
Walt's Calculated Line: Pick (Luck) or Steelers -9 (Tolzien).
Thursday, Nov 24, 8:30 PM
Comment on this game
The Game. Edge: Steelers.
VEGAS UPDATE: I'll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot in coming weeks. Here were the four highest-bet sides, as of Tuesday morning last week:
Those teams went 3-1 ATS, bringing the overall record this season to 20-25-1. The books were absolutely murdered this week. Not only did those top picks cash, but most teasers hit as well. We could end up seeing some shady stuff this week.
Here are the highest-bet teams in Week 12, as of Tuesday morning:
I'm listing six games here because the Steelers and Titans lines are no longer available at those prices. However, there was a ton of action on those two sides that are almost guaranteed to win because Andrew Luck and Jay Cutler are likely to miss this week. That could prompt some very strange things to happen in the other games, so be VERY careful when betting the Seahawks, Patriots, Giants and Ravens this week.
INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Speaking of Luck, he's currently in concussion protocol and is expected to miss this game. That means that Scott Tolzien will suddenly have to prepare for a tough opponent on a short week. Good luck, Scott!
Does Tolzien have any sort of chance? Quite simply, no. Indianapolis' offensive line is a mess, but Luck is capable of masking that at times by releasing the ball quickly and maneuvering around the pocket. Tolzien won't be able to do that, and given the limited preparation, I have to imagine that the Steelers will be able to confuse him quite easily. This could lead to some turnovers and many sacks.
Tolzien's presence will allow the Steelers to play closer to the line of scrimmage to limit Frank Gore. I actually liked Gore in this matchup prior to the Luck announcement because Pittsburgh no longer has Cameron Heyward available, but the Steelers will be able to place eight or even nine men in the box without any sort of repercussion.
PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Luck isn't the only prominent Colt who happens to be injured. Indianapolis has two key wounded defenders, both of whom play in the secondary. Safety Clayton Geathers, who has been stellar this year, has joined Luck in concussion protocol and is unlikely to play on a short week as well. Top cornerback Vontae Davis, meanwhile, was spotted in walking boot Monday. Davis hasn't been himself, as he's been banged up all year. He may not suit up on just three days of rest, and the Colts honestly should just hold him out and allow him to heal.
With all of this in mind, Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown have to be licking their chops. The two were limited by harsh weather this past week, but that won't be the case in Indianapolis' dome. With no pass rush to be concerned about, Roethlisberger will torch Indianapolis' skeleton-crew secondary with the greatest of ease.
Of course, Roethlisberger won't be doing all of the work, as the Steelers will continue to feed Le'Veon Bell. The Colts have improved against the run lately, as speedy inside linebacker Edwin Jackson has been a big upgrade. However, Bell will be able to do plenty of damage as a receiver out of the backfield, just like DeMarco Murray did against the Colts this past Sunday.
RECAP: There are two themes to this week's picks: one in general, and another one for my own personal selections. I'll get to the former later. The latter has to do with this game, as well as one of the early Sunday affairs.
So, what's this latter theme? It's a top pick of mine being stripped away from me because of a key injury. I absolutely LOVED the Colts at +2.5/+3. It was going to be my top pick this week and an easy choice in the Supercontest. That line was so bad. The Colts being +2.5/+3 against the Steelers, who had trouble putting away the Browns, would've translated to +8.5/+9 at Pittsburgh, which was just insane. The Steelers don't play nearly as well on the road, and getting Luck as a home underdog against a weakened defense was a gift from the heavens. This would've been a five-unit selection at the very least. Had the line crossed +3 and gone up to +3.5, it would've been my November NFL Pick of the Month.
Alas, I won't be making a wager here, as the Steelers will likely be favored by nine. I refuse to wager on such a high road favorite, but I will be picking Pittsburgh for office-pool purposes. If this game were being played on a Sunday, I'd consider selecting the Colts at +9, but I can't see Tolzien performing well with only three days to prepare.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There's sharp action here as well, with this spread dropping from +9 to +8. It's even +7.5 at Pinnacle, which is a major sign that the Colts might be the right side. I disagree because Scott Tolzien on short rest sounds like a loser. But if you like the Colts, you can get them at +9 -115 on Bovada.
FINAL THOUGHTS: Losing two games by a combined 1.5 points sucks, but I considered both of them to be 50-50 contests, so I effectively was on the 25-percent, 0-for-2 end of it. Hopefully it won't be 12.5 percent because this is a 50-50 game as well, in my opinion. The sharps were betting the Colts down from +9 and +8, but they stopped at +7.5, which is why the spread jumped back up to +8. That's what it is across the board, and I still favor the Steelers by a bit; not enough to bet them though. If you like the Colts, +9 is still available at Bovada.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
The Steelers may not try as hard if Andrew Luck out, but the Colts won't have enough time to prepare their backup.
The Vegas. Edge: Colts.
Wow, how pissed is Vegas that Andrew Luck is likely out?
Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 82% (6,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Colts.
Steelers are 19-31 ATS as road favorites since 2007.
Steelers are 8-23 ATS as road favorites coming off a win under Mike Tomlin.
Mike Tomlin is 7-18 ATS as a favorite after a win of 14+ in the regular season unless a bye is coming up.
San Diego Chargers (4-6) at Houston Texans (6-4) Line: Chargers by 3. Total: 46. Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Texans -2.
Walt's Calculated Line: Texans -2.
Sunday, Nov 27, 1:00 PM
Comment on this game
The Game. Edge: Chargers.
If you haven't seen this yet, we have a brand new weekly fantasy football contest. It's like DFS, but weekly and free, and there are cash prizes! There's no reason not to enter, and you can submit up to five lineups per week! Click the link here for our new Weekly Fantasy Football Contest - the Week 12 contest has already been posted, so good luck!
HOUSTON OFFENSE: While everyone was talking about the horrible officiating and the green laser pointer in the Mexico game, no one is mentioning how Brock Osweiler nearly had a disastrous evening. Osweiler was much better than he was at Jacksonville, but Oakland's defense dropped so many interceptions that it was difficult to keep count.
Osweiler is obviously not a very good quarterback, and I have to imagine that the excellent San Diego cornerbacks will take full advantage of any opportunities that Osweiler gives them. Osweiler wasn't even pressured frequently against the Raiders, but that won't be the case in this tilt. Joey Bosa, who has been enjoying a phenomenal rookie campaign, will have one of the easiest matchups of his career in this game. He'll be going against scrub backup Chris Clark, so he'll put heavy heat on Osweiler, who will fold under pressure.
The Texans, however, will be able to establish the run. The Chargers have been good against opposing ground attacks all year, but they lost a key member of their defense, Brandon Mebane, to a season-ending injury. Miller, as a result, will have wider running lanes than what was anticipated prior to the Mebane injury.
SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: One area that the Raiders weren't able to expose Monday night, at least before the final, clock-killing drive, was Houston's run defense. The Texans have been mediocre at stopping opposing ground attacks, but Latavius Murray isn't a good runner, so he wasn't able to exploit this weakness.
You have to believe that Melvin Gordon will. The Texans have Vince Wilfork in the middle, but the former Patriot isn't nearly as effective as he once was, and Gordon appears primed for a big game as a consequence. This will make things easier for Philip Rivers, who will undoubtedly see pressure from Houston's two dynamic edge rushers, Jadeveon Clowney and Whitney Mercilus.
The best thing the Texans do on defense, aside from rushing the passer on the edge, is stop opposing tight ends. They've been great against tight ends this year, so I wouldn't expect Rivers to have much success targeting Antonio Gates and Hunter Henry. However, it's hard to keep Rivers from moving the chains, and I expect him to do so by completing passes to Tyrell Williams, as well as Gordon leaking out of the backfield. The Texans have been known to blow a coverage or two, so Rivers will undoubtedly have a decent amount of success.
RECAP: A dream scenario of mine was seeing the Texans beat the Raiders so that they could open up -3 or higher against the Chargers, allowing me to make a very high wager on San Diego. Alas, the Mexican cartel that fixed the Monday night game prevented that from happening, and Houston is just -1 as a result.
I made this spread a pick, so there's virtually no line value. Looking at other factors, Rivers is a bizarre 2-8 against the spread off a bye, which is just perplexing. You'd think a quarterback of his caliber would take advantage of the extra time, but perhaps he's just busy with his five billion kids to focus on the next opponent. On the other hand, I don't like taking teams coming off controversial results in which the coaches and players blast the officials. I don't really blame the refs because it's possible that their lives were threatened, but Houston could be a bit too focused on those bad calls instead of this game.
I'm going to pass on a wager in this contest, but for office-pool purposes, I'll select the Chargers, as they're the better team, and Houston hasn't performed very well against great competition this year.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Chargers are now favored. I'm now considering taking the Texans as a home underdog, so I might change my pick by Saturday. There's been a lot of professional money coming in on the Chargers, however.
FRIDAY UPDATE: I've been thinking about this game a lot, and I've come to realize that this spread doesn't make any sense. The Colts were two-point favorites over the Chargers at home earlier in the year. Now, the Texans are home underdogs versus the Chargers even though Indianapolis and Houston are about even. I don't get why the Chargers are favored on the road, especially when considering Philip Rivers' struggles coming off a bye. The Texans, meanwhile, have won and covered every single game at home, beating the Chiefs and Lions. They also should've beaten the Raiders on Monday night. I'm switching my pick to the Texans, and I'm putting three units on them. This is one of my Supercontest picks.
SATURDAY NOTES: This line has moved to Chargers -2.5 in most places and -3 +100 in others, which is just baffling. So, Texans at San Diego would be Chargers -8.5 (more like -7 or -7.5)? That makes no sense. I'm hoping to get +3 at a reasonable price (-115 or better), but if I have to pay -120, so be it.
FINAL THOUGHTS: The Texans are +3 -120 at a few books. I'm holding out hope that I can get -115, or better, so I'll be monitoring this number all morning.
The Psychology. Edge: Chargers.
I wonder if the Texans will be spending too much time complaining about the officiating this week.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
Percentage of money on San Diego: 58% (21,000 bets)
Tennessee Titans (5-6) at Chicago Bears (2-8) Line: Titans by 6. Total: 42. Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Titans -1.
Walt's Calculated Line: Bears -1 (Cutler) or Titans -7.5 (Barkley).
Sunday, Nov 27, 1:00 PM
Comment on this game
The Game. Edge: Titans.
If you haven't seen this yet, we have a brand new weekly fantasy football contest. It's like DFS, but weekly and free, and there are cash prizes! There's no reason not to enter, and you can submit up to five lineups per week! Click the link here for our new Weekly Fantasy Football Contest - the Week 7 contest has already been posted, so good luck!
HATE MAIL: Despite having another (slight) winning week, I got plenty of hate mail, including this:
Hey, I made a horrible pick, and I'll definitely be held accountable for it. And yes, I'm serious abou the cack lollipop being tasty.
However, I will not apologize for taking the Rams, who were the right side:
Yeah, I think that dude, despite being right for the wrong reasons, is overstating his record just a bit!
Meanwhile, I have no idea why this guy is so mad, aside from perhaps hating his own low intelligence level:
I didn't get a response for that, unfortunately.
The same could be said here, though another reader did understand how much the hate-mailer was pwned by my response:
Wow. Would not be surprised if WaltIsDumb jumped off his roof after getting destroyed like that.
CHICAGO OFFENSE: This line opened Titans -1, and it slowly crept up Sunday evening and Monday morning, as sharp and public action was responsible for the changed spread. I expected the public to be all over the Titans, but the sharps as well? Someone knew something, and apparently, that something was Jay Cutler's shoulder injury. Cutler hs been ruled out for this game, meaning Matt Barkley will start.
This is going to be Barkley's first career start, but we've seen him in brief action before. He sucked against the Packers earlier this season when Brian Hoyer went down. He saw brief action for the Eagles in the first year of the Chip Kelly era. He played significant snaps in two games, throwing four interceptions and no touchdowns. He was brutal in a 17-3 defeat to Dallas, but wasn't so bad in the next contest, a 15-7 loss to the Giants.
The thing is, Barkley had good weapons on that 2013 Eagles squad. He has nothing to work with here, as Alshon Jeffery is suspended, while Kevin White and Zach Miller are both injured. Cameron Meredith is his No. 1 receiver. Meredith has shown some flashes in a couple of games this year, but it's just sad that he's Barkley's top option. Meanwhile, the Bears will have to get Jordan Howard involved as much as possible, as he's their only threat. The problem with that, however, is that the Titans are pretty stout against the run.
TENNESSEE OFFENSE: The Titans basically just have to avoid mistakes, and they'll win this game easily. That could be easier said than done against the Bears' defense, however. Chicago has two excellent edge rushers in Pernell McPhee and Willie Young. The Titans own a pair of great tackles in Taylor Lewan and Jack Conklin, but Lewan injured his knee last week. It's a sprain, so he could be on the field, but he may not be nearly as effective.
The Bears' pass rush makes things easier for the secondary, which has been a pleasant surprise this season. Bryce Callahan returned to action last week, and he was solid once again, playing across from the improved Tracy Porter. The Bears held Odell Beckham Jr. in check, so they'll deal with the emerging Rishard Matthews. Marcus Mariota will be able to target Delanie Walker though, and it should be noted that Walker's matchup has gotten easier with Jerrell Freeman suspended.
The Titans, of course, will attempt to establish DeMarco Murray. It was odd to see Murray not have as much success on the ground last week, and the same could occur in this contest if Eddie Goldman returns after missing last week's contest against the Giants. If, however, Goldman is out again, Murray will be able to rebound.
RECAP: This is the second game of the theme I mentioned earlier. Colts +2.5/+3 was robbed from me, and so was this game. Indianapolis was my top pick, while Chicago was my third-favorite choice this week.
The Bears were going to be a three- or four-unit selection with Cutler under center. I made the Bears my top play last week because they were underrated and happened to be getting too many points as a result. Their defense is awesome, and I figured they would be able to limit the Titans enough to pull the upset in this contest. They were home underdogs against a Tennessee team that has barely done anything on the road this season. The Titans won at Miami, but the Dolphins were preoccupied with Hurricane Matthew. They also defeated Detroit, but the injury-ravaged Lions blew a 15-3 lead in the fourth quarter. Outside of that, the Titans lost at Houston, San Diego and Indianapolis.
However, I can't stomach any sort of pick on Barkley if I'm getting less than eight or so points. He just sucks. Now, if the Titans re-open at -8.5 or greater, I'll consider Chicago, but not for any sort of wager. Check back or follow me @walterfootball for updates.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I'm confused by this spread, as I thought the Titans would be -6.5 or higher for sure. Perhaps it's only -5 because John Fox refuses to rule out Jay Cutler. If so, the Titans could be worth a nice wager.
SATURDAY NOTES: The Titans have moved to -6, which still seems kind of low considering that Matt Barkley is the opposing quarterback. However, considering the utter beating that Vegas has taken last week and on Thanksgiving, I would advise against wagering on highly backed teams this week.
FINAL THOUGHTS: Sharps typically like home underdogs, but they haven't touched the Bears - and for good reason! The public is pounding the Titans at a crazy rate.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: Bears.
Wow, how pissed is Vegas that Jay Cutler might be out?
Percentage of money on Tennessee: 85% (22,000 bets)
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-8) at Buffalo Bills (5-5) Line: Bills by 9. Total: 44. Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Bills -7.
Walt's Calculated Line: Bills -6.5.
Sunday, Nov 27, 1:00 PM
Comment on this game
The Game. Edge: Bills.
I wouldn't say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I'll keep them here. What I'm also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.
Some random NFL notes I can't put anywhere else:
This is the week of Thanksgiving, and I usually post something about how I'm going to my parents' house, which means I'm going to have to endure my uncle cheering against my picks. He doesn't actually hate me - at least, I don't think he does - but he holds a grudge against my dad, who bets my high-unit selections. My dad makes it known whom he roots for, and then my a**hole uncle starts cheering for the other team. I'm shocked my dad hasn't strangled him yet. I think he would do it if he could get away with it.
I will be going to my parents' house again this year, and just thinking about it happens to be a stark reminder of how much I was struggling last year. I went 0-3 on Thanksgiving last year, and I recall being utterly perplexed by what was happening. I then looked back into my archives, and I saw that I went on a rant in my Week 12 picks last year. Here it is:
I will say that I've done it. I've accomplished the unenviable feat of being the worst NFL handicapper on the planet. There might be some alien who's worse at picking NFL games in some distant galaxy, but here on Earth, I am the absolute worst. There's no question about that.
I just lost $2,000 in a single week. My worst week ever prior to this past one was Week 6, 2010, when I went 4-9-1, -$1,865 (amazingly, that was a winning season). Week 11, 2015 shattered all records, as I went 5-6-3, -$2,010.
I have no idea what happened to me. I didn't have a single losing season between 2003 and 2010. Not one. I used to hit 55-56 percent against the spread on a year-to-year basis. Now, I can't even reach coin-flip status. It's embarrassing. I have a female cousin who picks games just based on which cities she likes, and she's well above .500. I watch every game, know all the players, follow the injury reports, break down the matchups... but it doesn't matter. All I do is pick losers. It doesn't matter which teams I take. If I place a high-unit wager on them, I will lose. I could've placed tons of money on the Jaguars, Chiefs, Packers and Bengals, and all of those sides would've lost as well.
I'm going to continue making picks even if I'm $50,000 in the hole because this is part of my full-time job, but I will tell you right now that you should fade all of my high-unit selections no matter what. I have absolutely no read on the NFL. It's become a foreign language to me. I can't begin to explain why the Chargers were the wrong side in their 33-3 loss. They got most of their players back. All of their linemen returned - and yet they still couldn't block a stupid Chiefs team that I lost tons of units with when they suffered defeats to the Bengals and Bears earlier in the year. Like seriously, what the hell is going on here? Kansas City got blasted by the Bengals and lost straight up to the Bears, and yet demolished a team getting most of its personnel back as three-point road favorites? How the f*** does that make any sense?
And let's talk about the Bengals and Texans. I lost big with Cincinnati last Monday night. OK, so the Bengals are beginning their late-season swoon, right? So, how the hell did they cover at Arizona? You can say they didn't show up to play Houston on Monday night, so anyone telling me that motivation plays no factor in football is full of crap. The Texans piss me off more. I had a huge bet on them against the Dolphins in Week 7. They got blown out. Ever since then, they won at Cincinnati and upset the Jets, both of whom are better than Miami. The Dolphins, meanwhile, have lost by double-digits in three of four of their games following that victory over Houston.
Again, I ask you, how the f*** is anyone supposed to make sense of this? Why did the Dolphins demolish the Texans? To take a page from my cousin's handicapping book, was Miami the right side because the city is more fun than Houston? Is that how I'm supposed to handicap football games? I don't understand what the hell is going on. It feels like everything is random, but then again, if it were random, wouldn't I be picking games at a 50-percent clip? I don't get it.
I have no answers going forward. Seriously, I think I'll be down $10,000 by season's end. I don't think it's possible for me to have a legitimate winning week. Sue, I finished in the black in Weeks 8 and 9, but I was 5-8-1 in Week 8, and in Week 9, I lost my top two picks in the Dolphins (at Bills) and Eagles (at Cowboys). Yeah, the Dolphins, who beat this suddenly unstoppable Houston team, and the Eagles, who have gone on to lose to Miami and Tampa Bay. Ugh, what the hell?
If it sounds like I'm having a nervous breakdown right now, it's because I am. I don't know what the hell to do. I've stopped looking at trends, and yet I'm still down 18 units after doing so. I've transitioned to matchups, but what good are matchups when the Texans win straight up at Cincinnati, and the Packers lose outright to the Lions, only to beat a better team in Minnesota the following week?
I was a mess a year ago. After Thanksgiving weekend of 2015, however, I'm up 92.7 units. Ending my trends nonsense did end up being the right move, as I began actually factoring in how teams are performing in relation to the spread. So, this Thanksgiving, I'm going to be thankful that I was able to identify the error of my ways and get on the right track as far as my football handicapping is concerned.
JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: It's the same story every week for the Jaguars. I could just copy-paste more stuff from my archives because they're responsible for the same, dumb mistakes each week. Their defense plays extremely well, but Blake Bortles and the other players on offense and special teams ruin potential wins and covers by screwing up. It's a sad state of affairs.
There's no reason to think the blunders will stop, as Bortles no longer has his quarterback guru, Greg Olson, whom the Jaguars foolishly fired. Bortles has continued to regress, though he'll have some opportunities for big plays against a Buffalo secondary that has struggled this year. That said, the Bills' pass rush may not give Bortles much of a chance, as the vastly improved Lorenzo Alexander has a very easy matchup against he banged-up Kelvin Beachum.
I wouldn't expect much out of the Jacksonville rushing attack either. Chris Ivory is as mediocre as they come, and he has a tougher matchup than what was projected a couple of weeks ago. Marcell Dareus is finally back in the lineup, and he helped shut down the Cincinnati running backs last week.
BUFFALO OFFENSE: Both the Bengals and Bills sustained injuries to major players in last week's game, with A.J. Green and LeSean McCoy getting knocked out. McCoy needs surgery on his dislocated thumb, but will somehow be able to play this week. That's obviously very important, as the Bills' scoring unit hasn't really done much with McCoy out of the lineup.
That said, it's still going to be tough sledding for the Bills. Jacksonville's defense has improved markedly this season. The Jaguars are very good against the run, so they'll be able to limit McCoy on the ground somewhat. McCoy will still be able to get significant yardage as a pass-catcher, and he'll need to considering the difficult matchup Tyrod Taylor will have to endure.
The best part of Jacksonville's defense is the secondary. Prince Amukamara and Jalen Ramsey have been shutting down opposing cornerbacks, while John Cyprien has been one of the top safeties in the NFL this year. Taylor won't have Robert Woods at his disposal, so he'll struggle to get anything downfield unless Sammy Watkins sees significant action. Watkins could play this week, but even if he does, it's likely that he'll be limited.
RECAP: If I had ANY faith in Bortles, the Jaguars would be one of my top picks this week. Their defense has been awesome lately, and given the Bills' injury problems, they would be able to stay within a touchdown if they had even a sub-par quarterback. Like, I'd be confident in Jacksonville if Cody Kessler was its signal-caller, as Kessler would avoid mistakes.
Betting on Bortles, however, is impossible. He's an abomination. He doesn't care about football, as he's more concerned with partying instead, and he'll keep getting worse without Olson helping him. The Jaguars would've covered with Kessler last week, but Bortles ruined things with a pick-six, while the special teams surrendered a touchdown as well. Jacksonville is just poorly coached and quarterbacked, and I'll be damned if this sorry franchise gets any more of my money.
As with last week, I'm picking the Jaguars for a non-wager. Jacksonville's defense will keep things close, but whether Bortles' inevitable pick-six makes this a seven- or an eight-point margin remains to be seen.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There's no sharp money on the Jaguars just yet, which is surprising, considering how often they've been betting on them this year. Public money continues to pour in on Buffalo, while I will keep recommending staying away.
SATURDAY NOTES: It's completely shocking to me that the sharps haven't bet the Jaguars yet. Maybe that'll change Sunday morning, or maybe the pros have learned that betting on such a stupid team isn't the smartest thing.
FINAL THOUGHTS: So much for the sharp money. Vegas apparently has given up on getting the pros to bet the Jaguars because they pushed this spread up to -8.5. It's now -9 at Bovada! I actually think that's worth a small wager, so I'll put a unit on Jacksonville.
The Psychology. Edge: Jaguars.
The Bills have to battle the Raiders and Steelers after this easy game.
The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.
A slight lean on the Bills.
Percentage of money on Buffalo: 68% (19,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Bills.
Jaguars are 28-59 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.
Bills are 28-15 ATS in November home games the previous 43 contests.
True home teams are 31-22 ATS in the last 53 Bills games.
Cincinnati Bengals (3-6-1) at Baltimore Ravens (5-5) Line: Ravens by 4.5. Total: 40.5. Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Ravens -1.5.
Walt's Calculated Line: Ravens -3.
Sunday, Nov 27, 1:00 PM
Comment on this game
1. It's time to review the college football playoff rankings, which I have to believe shocked most people. Both Clemson and Michigan sustained ugly losses two weekends ago, and yet neither moved out of the top four.
I guess this is what you should point out to those who say that the college football regular season is sacred, and that adding more teams to the playoffs would make it less relevant. The argument is to move to eight, which I'd like to see. I actually think 16 would be awesome, so that we could fill out brackets. However, I have yet to hear anyone argue for six. Why not give the Nos. 1 and 2 seeds a bye, like the NFL does it? Right now, there's no difference between being the second or third seed. This would change that, and it would allow for a larger field without offending those who think that the regular season is sacred.
At any rate, I don't get why Clemson and Michigan didn't move out. I could maybe see the case for the Tigers because they were in the championship last year, and Pittsburgh is a solid team. But the Wolverines definitely should've dropped. Iowa sucks. The Hawkeyes lost at home to a 1-AA school this year, for crying out loud! They were blown out by Penn State the week before. Plus, Michigan lost its starting quarterback. I'd be fine with putting the Wolverines back in the playoff if they ended up running the table, but as for right now, they don't deserve to be in the top four.
2. I didn't touch on Louisville yet. I would've argued for them to be in the top four over Clemson. Sure, they lost to the Tigers, but that was in Death Valley. Besides, losing to Pitt is worse than losing at Clemson, so I think that should've been considered.
Unfortunately for Louisville, it was absolutely demolished at Houston, which should end its playoff aspirations entirely. It should've been apparent from the early going that the Cardinals would lose, as there was this bad omen:
Samuel L. Jackson, huh? He'll whore himself out for any product, which makes him eerily similar to Peyton Manning. What was Manning famous for? Choking in big games. Ahh, it becomes clear now: Louisville lost because the Curse of Peyton Manning!
3. Two teams that won't be involved atop the playoff rankings are Florida and Georgia. They played each other recently in a game that was once called the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party. That has since changed; the nickname was removed because PC idiots had an issue with it in response to some drunken outbursts by fans.
The thing is, alcoholic outbursts have remained. It's not like refraining from calling the game the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party has prevented people from drinking. It's literally made zero difference, outside of making PC idiots feel better about themselves. You wouldn't think that would matter, but in a world in which people protest angrily about the dumbest things, feelings have become more important than ever. Not to sane people, but to PC idiots.
I think feelings are dumb and irrelevant, so therefore, I'd like to create an initiative to once again refer to the Florida-Georgia rivalry as the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party. Let's make the Florida-Georgia games great again.
CINCINNATI OFFENSE: As noted in the previous game capsule, A.J. Green was knocked out of last week's contest with a hamstring injury. It's just a strain, fortunately, so Green could return this year. It won't matter though if the Bengals keep on losing.
If the betting action is any indication, no one seems to think that the Bengals have any sort of chance without their top play-maker. However, Andy Dalton still has some weapons at his disposal. Tyler Eifert, for instance, is one of the league's best tight ends. Eifert does have a difficult matchup in this contest, as the Ravens have defended tight ends well, but I still expect him to be productive because of his impressive talent level. Meanwhile, rookie receiver Tyler Boyd excelled last week. The Ravens have some problems in their secondary, so Boyd could have another decent performance.
At running back, Giovani Bernard is also out - he tore his ACL - but the Bengals seldom gave him more touches than Jeremy Hill. Though Bernard's pass-catching ability will be missed, Hill will be able to get some action as a receiver out of the backfield. He did log 27 receptions as a rookie. The reason his reception totals haven't been high is because Bernard was just so great in that role. Hill will pick up the slack in that regard, though he'll have trouble running against the Ravens' stalwart front.
BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Joe Flacco knows all about missing weapons on this side of the ball, as he didn't have Steve Smith or some of his top offensive linemen for stretches this year. The team is mostly healthy again, however, which doesn't bode well for the Bengals.
Cincinnati has endured major issues against the pass this year. Pacman Jones has regressed, while Reggie Nelson has been missed in the wake of his defection for Oakland. The Ravens don't have the most consistent aerial attack, but Flacco will definitely connect on some shots to Smith and Mike Wallace.
Meanwhile, the Ravens should be able to pound the rock pretty well. The Bengals have not done well against the run for the most part this season, so Terrance West and Kenneth Dixon will pick up significant chunks. It'd be better for Baltimore if Dixon shouldered most of the workload, but West continues to be way too involved.
RECAP: As I touched on earlier, there are two themes for this week's picks. The first one was injured quarterbacks ruining my top selections. The second is that previously overrated teams are finally being priced correctly. That is the case in this game.
Considering all of the public action on this game, most people think the Bengals are done. That's certainly the opinion I've heard from the talking heads. However, if the Bengals win this game, and the Steelers lose to the Giants next week, they'll be just half of a game out of the division lead, with Green due back at some point.
I think this line is too high. I made it Ravens -3, even considering the Green and Bernard injuries. The advance spread was Ravens -1.5, so a 1.5-point adjustment for Green felt appropriate. These teams aren't far apart enough for Baltimore to be laying 4.5 points. The Ravens tend to play close games, anyway. Save for the Cleveland affair, Baltimore has won by one score in all of its victories this year, and in regard to that Browns contest, it's worth noting that the Ravens were trailing 7-6 at halftime, and the reason they were able to finally separate was because Hue Jackson benched Cody Kessler.
As for the Green element, I'm sure many are wondering how the Bengals can stay within striking distance of a somewhat decent team without their star wideout. Except we just saw it. The Bengals lost by four to the Bills without Green, and had their kicker not missed two extra points, they would've been in position for a game-winning field goal at the end. Cincinnati, like Baltimore, has kept most of its games close this year, and I expect that to be the case once again.
I'm taking the Bengals for three units as long as they remain underdogs of +4 or higher. They're +4.5 right now, and it's worth noting that they were +5 Monday evening, but sharp action bet the line down to +4.5.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I'm going to lock this one in. Perhaps I'm doing so early, but with Pinnacle listing -3.5, it's a sign that the line could move down elsewhere. The Cardinals are available at +4.5 on Bovada right now.
SATURDAY NOTES: I locked this in earlier, and I still don't regret it. Nice! This line hasn't moved since Thursday, save for Bovada offering +4.5 -115 instead of -110. The Ravens won't have Jimmy Smith, so that'll help Cincinnati, which needs a boost in the wake of A.J. Green's injury.
FINAL THOUGHTS: I woke up this morning thinking I might add a fourth unit on the Bengals, but this spread has dropped to +3.5, thanks to some major sharp action on Cincinnati.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.
No A.J. Green? No problem!
Percentage of money on Baltimore: 66% (22,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: None.
History: Bengals have won the last 5 meetings.
Bengals are 32-18 ATS as underdogs since 2009.
Ravens are 22-11 ATS in November home games since 2000.
Ravens are 23-16 ATS at home as an underdog or favorite of 1-7 points with Joe Flacco.
Arizona Cardinals (4-5-1) at Atlanta Falcons (6-4) Line: Falcons by 6. Total: 49.5. Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Falcons -3.
Walt's Calculated Line: Falcons -3.
Sunday, Nov 27, 1:00 PM
Comment on this game
The Game. Edge: Cardinals.
If you've followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. Five years ago, a man named Jon Wire from the "United Bank of Africoan" promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a "lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP)." Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.
Last year, Tom Brady and his deflated footballs were involved. You can see those Spam Mails here with my responses to avoid clutter. I'll have brand new spam mail responses every week!
ARIZONA OFFENSE: Carson Palmer looked like a shell of his former self in the preseason. I was pretty sure he was done, but hesitated to make it a guarantee because Tom Brady improved following a putrid exhibition campaign back in 2015. I've actually theorized about why Brady improved, but it's clear that Palmer hasn't taken the same measures, as he just doesn't have enough juice left in his arm.
Palmer was set up to fail against the Vikings, who welcomed back three key members of their defense from injury. Atlanta's secondary obviously isn't as potent. Desmond Trufant will return to shadow Larry Fitzgerald, but Palmer has plenty of other talented weapons to throw to, and I expect that at least one of Michael Floyd, John Brown or J.J. Nelson to have a rebound performance. Of course, it'll be important for Palmer to be protected, which wasn't the case last week, as Everson Griffen and Danielle Hunter destroyed him. Vic Beasley will put some heat on him, but Adrian Clayborn isn't nearly as potent of a pass-rusher as Griffen.
Palmer naturally won't have to worry about a pass rush if his team doesn't trail. That's because he can just hand the ball off to David Johnson. It appeared as though Johnson would be a big part of the offense last week when he ripped off consecutive runs of nine, 10 and 11 yards in the opening half, but the Vikings established a lead via a pick-six and a kickoff return, so Johnson couldn't carry the ball as much after intermission. If Johnson can do that in this contest, the Falcons will be in trouble, as they proved to be very soft up the middle at Philadelphia, as the Eagles trampled them with Ryan Mathews. If Mathews could have a huge performance like that, imagine what Johnson will be able to do.
ATLANTA OFFENSE: The strength of the Falcons' team has been Matt Ryan's ability to air the ball out to Julio Jones, but that will be put to the test in this matchup.
Patrick Peterson, of course, will be smothering Jones and causing problems. Peterson is obviously one of the top cornerbacks in the NFL, and he's fully capable of locking Jones out for the most part. Thus, Ryan will have to look elsewhere, but he really doesn't have much else to work with. Austin Hooper has shown some promise, but Arizona is great against tight ends. Mohamed Sanu is around, but he's incredibly mediocre. Making things worse, Tyrann Mathieu will be back in the lineup, while Arizona's excellent edge rushers, Chandler Jones and Markus Golden, will be breathing down Ryan's neck. Chandler Jones is playing at the top of his game right now, so I think he'll be able to get by solid, but unspectacular left tackle Jake Matthews.
The Falcons will be welcoming back Tevin Coleman, so I imagine that to avoid Chandler Jones and Golden, Palmer will toss the ball to Coleman and Devonta Freeman early and often. The problem, however, is that Arizona's talented linebackers will be able to take care of business in that regard. Freeman will also have a difficult time running the ball against an excellent ground defense.
RECAP: This goes along with the second theme I mentioned earlier. The Cardinals have been priced incorrectly all year, as they were obviously overrated because Palmer has regressed. Arizona opening at pick last week was a joke. The Vikings were better than the Cardinals, and they were at home, and yet the line was pick? How in the world did that make any sense?
Here, however, the spread is off the other way. The Falcons and Vikings are about even, but Atlanta's homefield advantage, unlike Minnesota's, is very weak. Plus, the Cardinals match up better against Atlanta. Thus, I personally made this spread Falcons -3.
We're getting 4.5 points with the Cardinals, however. A difference of one-and-a-half points may not seem like all that much, but we're going through a huge key number in three and a minor one in four. Arizona's defense will make this a low-scoring game, and Johnson's matchup against Atlanta's soft interior is the greatest edge either team has in this contest. Thus, I'm willing to wager three units on Arizona. I was worried I wouldn't be able to bet on the Cardinals with Bruce Arians hospitalized, but he was fortunately released Monday night, so he'll be able to install a great game plan.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There was some weird line movement in this game Thursday morning. I watched it rise from -4 to -5.5 and then back down to -5. The best line for Arizona is currently at +5 -105 on Bovada. I'm hoping for +6, but I don't think we'll get it because that's a key number.
FRIDAY UPDATE: Guess I was wrong! The Cardinals are now +6, and the juice is -105 at Bovada, which just seems insane to me. It's sounding like Desmond Trufant will either be out or injured, so Larry Fitzgerald could have a big game after all. This number is way too high, and so I want to lock it in at +6 -105, and I'm going to increase it to four units.
SATURDAY NOTES: If you like the Cardinals, I hope you bet them at +6. The sharps have been pounding Arizona all day, perhaps because of the news that Desmond Trufant won't play. I would still take the Cardinals at +4.5, but for a lesser bet than four units.
FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have continued to pound the Cardinals, as there aren't many +4s available. This line is now +3.5 in most books. Pro bettors might be looking at Desmond Trufant's absence as a big factor.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
Bruce Arians has been released from the hospital.
The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.
Everyone is now down on Arizona.
Percentage of money on Atlanta: 66% (11,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: None.
Bruce Arians is 34-26 ATS as head coach of the Cardinals.
Falcons are 22-10 ATS following a loss of 6+ in the previous 32 instances.
San Francisco 49ers (1-9) at Miami Dolphins (6-4) Line: Dolphins by 7.5. Total: 45.5. Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Dolphins -8.
Walt's Calculated Line: Dolphins -7.
Sunday, Nov 27, 1:00 PM
Comment on this game
The Game. Edge: Dolphins.
Video of the Week: Reader Blake Bellamy has his own YouTube channel, and some of the videos on there are hilarious. Take this one for example, where Blake prank calls someone on Craig's List:
Part of me feels sorry for Rico, but then again, part of me kind of understands why he wants Rico dead.
MIAMI OFFENSE: I still can't believe the Dolphins covered at Los Angeles. They had done nothing for 56 minutes, but following a senseless Aaron Donald penalty, Miami suddenly had life and somehow found a way to win. The victory was completely inexplicable; not just because of the late-game heroics, but because of what Tannehill had endured the entire contest.
Tannehill was missing his three top offensive linemen, as Branden Albert and Mike Pouncey were declared out prior to kickoff, while Laremy Tunsil left with an injury. The entire reason the Dolphins were able to embark on their impressive winning streak was because Albert, Pouncey and Tunsil returned to the lineup after missing some action. Because they were knocked out of the Los Angeles game, 10 of Miami's first 11 drives against the Rams ended in a punt, while the outlier concluded in a Tannehill interception.
Tunsil's status is unclear, but it sounds like Albert and Pouncey will be out again. Fortunately for the Dolphins, they'll be taking on the woeful 49ers, who have the league's worst run defense. They also have a poor pass rush, while safety Eric Reid was just lost for the year. In other words, their defense is far worse than the Rams'. I don't expect the Dolphins to be consistent on this side of the ball because of their offensive line injuries, but they'll definitely have more scoring drives than they did last week, as Jay Ajayi rips through the horrible 49ers.
SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The 49ers only do one thing well on this side of the ball, and that's pound the rock with Carlos Hyde. The tough runner has a favorable matchup in this affair, as the Dolphins have been weak against the rush for most of the season. They allowed a long touchdown run to Todd Gurley last week, and Hyde will probably be able to improve upon Gurley's final numbers from last week.
The Dolphins even stacked the line of scrimmage, daring Jared Goff to beat them downfield. They could do the same for Colin Kaepernick, though they'll have to worry about Kaepernick taking off for long scrambles.
As for Kaepernick's passing ability, it's, well, pretty lacking. However, he doesn't have the most difficult matchup, and we've seen him hit some big plays this year. There's always a risk of him throwing some pick-sixes because he doesn't study enough film to know what the opposing defenses are doing. That said, the Dolphins don't have very many play-makers in their back seven, so perhaps Kaepernick's turnovers will be held to a minimum.
RECAP: I'm not going to bet on the 49ers unless I get an obscene amount of points with them against an overrated, middling team. The Dolphins are an overrated, middling team as long as their primary offensive linemen are out. Unfortunately, we're not getting an obscene amount of points.
I calculated this spread as Dolphins -7, factoring in their awful homefield advantage. I was hoping to get +10, which would've warranted a two- or three-unit wager. Instead, this line is only +7.5, which is both confusing and frustrating. Why isn't this spread higher? It's not like the public is fully aware of Miami's new offensive line woes. The Dolphins even got a bulls*** victory Sunday. Shouldn't this spread have been inflated as a result?
I'm not sure who's going to answer my questions, but regardless, I'm going to stay away from this game in terms of wagering. I do think the 49ers will cover, however.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: As with the Jaguars, the 49ers haven't gotten sharp action yet, which is surprising. However, I think we might see it later in the week. I'm also surprised that more of the public isn't betting Miami.
SATURDAY NOTES: There's been some sharp action on the 49ers on Saturday. This line has dropped to +7 in most books, but it's still +7.5 -115 at Bovada.
FINAL THOUGHTS: The same as yesterday, there is a bit of sharp money on San Francisco, but not a large amount. The 49ers are still available at +7 -115 at Bovada.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.
Slight lean on the Dolphins.
Percentage of money on Miami: 66% (19,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: 49ers.
Underdog is 72-40 ATS in the Dolphins' last 112 games.
Dolphins are 7-21 ATS as favorites of 3.5 or more since 2008.
Dolphins are 10-34 ATS at home against teams with losing records since 2003.
Los Angeles Rams (4-6) at New Orleans Saints (4-6) Line: Saints by 8. Total: 44.5. Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Saints -6.5.
Walt's Calculated Line: Saints -4.5.
Sunday, Nov 27, 1:00 PM
Comment on this game
The Game. Edge: Saints.
THE ADVENTURES OF TOM BRADY'S HAIRCUTS
I've been citing that Tom Brady has lost his "clutch" ability over the past few years, but I guess I can't do that any longer because he recently won his fourth Super Bowl. Or, can I...? Brady, after all, reached the "Big Game" with the help of his deflated footballs.
Brady was stuck on three Super Bowls for a long time before he resorted to cheating. So, what happened? The obvious answer is his wife. But more specifically, it's the haircuts that his wife forces him into getting. It's unknown to the media, but Brady's haircuts are much more than just silly fashion statements; each haircut gives Brady a new persona or tells a new story. Including this one...
Tom Brady was given a new mission from Donald Trump. He was told to visit the neighboring country and convince them to build a wall in case Trump loses to Hillary Clinton. Tom needs to do this to keep the Latin Kings out of the country. To see the story behind this one, check out the new Adventures of Tom Brady's Haircuts!
LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: I gave Jared Goff a "C" for his debut against the Rams. He did some things well, making several nice connections to Kenny Britt and scrambling for some first downs after avoiding potential sacks. However, a number of Goff's throws were errant, and his urgency at the end of the game was appalling. He was down four with 30 seconds remaining, and the clock was ticking, and yet he looked like he was taking a summer stroll through a field of daisies. I don't understand how he didn't understand the concept of time management. It's almost like he thought he was winning 14-10 instead of trailing by the same score.
To be fair, Goff was battling the elements, as there was a heavy downpour that made taking downfield shots very difficult. Goff will be much more comfortable in the dome against a poor Saints defense. New Orleans has gotten better since Sheldon Rankins entered the lineup and Craig Robertson displaced the anemic James Laurinaitis. However, there are still plenty of holes in the Saints' "stop" unit, and even Trevor Siemian was able to go 25-of-40 for 258 yards, two touchdowns and an interception in a victory in New Orleans.
The Rams, of course will attempt to establish the run with Todd Gurley. While many will expect Gurley to run well, the Saints have actually clamped down on the rush recently, thanks to Robertson and Rankins. Devontae Booker was limited to a 3.2 YPC, while Jonathan Stewart was restricted to just 31 yards on 18 carries!
NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Saints have a potent offense, but they've been guilty of lots of mistakes recently. Michael Thomas was responsible for three turnovers himself against the Broncos, while New Orleans turned the ball over on multiple occasions at Carolina as well. The Rams, fully aware of this, will attempt to feast on some more New Orleans give-aways.
A big factor as to the Saints' ability to take care of the football will be whether or not Terron Armstead suits up. Armstead has missed the past couple of games with a leg injury. He's had extra time to heal, but even if he returns to the lineup, he may not be 100 percent. This has to be music to Robert Quinn's ears. Aaron Donald and Michael Brockers, meanwhile, will create mayhem in the interior. It'll make things extremely difficult for Drew Brees, who hates interior pressure more than anything. Meanwhile, neither Mark Ingram nor Tim Hightower will find much running room.
I still expect Brees to engineer some scoring drives because he's, well, Drew Brees. However, the Saints' offense won't be nearly as consistent as it has been at times this year, and it's definitely possible that Los Angeles' stop unit will create multiple turnovers.
RECAP: I mentioned earlier that my top and third-favorite picks were nullified because of quarterback injuries. Fortunately, my No. 2 choice still remains, and that would be the Rams.
The Saints are favored by way too many points. I made this spread -4.5, so we're getting 2.5 points of value through two key numbers of six and seven. I think most people look at this game and assume that Brees can beat Goff by more than a touchdown, but that sort of thinking is why the public loses year in and year out. The Rams have arguably the best defense in the NFL, and their excellent stop unit will keep things close. Excluding the weird season opener, the Rams have lost by more than a touchdown only once this year, so why would that suddenly change?
Also, I have to give Matvei credit for this: In the past two years, the only teams the Saints have beaten by more than seven (excluding games on short work weeks) are the Jaguars and 49ers. The Rams are definitely not in that dubious caliber because of their defense. The Saints' stop unit, meanwhile, is weak, and it'll allow Los Angeles to hang around. Thus, I'm making this a four-unit wager.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I'm hoping this moves to +7.5, which is available at -120 juice on 5Dimes right now. Getting -110 juice would be much better, obviously. Of course, that won't happen if the sharps come in on the Rams, but that hasn't happened yet. The public continues to pound the Saints.
SATURDAY NOTES: It's very strange, but CRIS is listing the Rams at +8.5. It's +7.5 elsewhere. Perhaps that's a sign that this line will be moving up. Stay tuned, as it'll be great to get something above eight.
FINAL THOUGHTS: It's shocking to me that this spread has risen to -8 across the board. I'll take it though, as the Rams are getting way too many points.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: Rams.
No surprise here.
Percentage of money on New Orleans: 75% (22,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: None.
Jeff Fisher is 55-39 ATS as an underdog since 2006.
Drew Brees is 38-24 ATS after a loss with the Saints (13-5 ATS as an underdog).
New York Giants (7-3) at Cleveland Browns (0-11) Line: Giants by 7.5. Total: 45.5. Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Giants -6.5.
Walt's Calculated Line: Giants -5.5.
Sunday, Nov 27, 1:00 PM
Comment on this game
The Game. Edge: Giants.
If you're unaware of this, you can publish your own articles on this Web site and have them promoted via Twitter, Facebook and this page! Check out our Open Rant feature, where articles get promoted all the time. Some readers' articles have gotten more than 3,000 views, so if you want to get your opinion heard, here's a great way for you to do so!
NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Giants have been on the overrated list for most of the season. They're not a good team, as they've won some very fluky games. Their offense is a mess as well, as they can't block very well or run the ball effectively.
Fortunately for the Giants, the Browns don't have the edge rushers to take advantage of the poor tackles. However, Justin Pugh's absence could be a factor, as Danny Shelton, Cleveland's top presence on the defensive front by a wide margin, will have his way with Pugh's replacement. Eli Manning will be under duress again, while the running lanes won't be there very often for Rashad Jennings.
Manning will, of course, concentrate on getting the ball to Odell Beckham Jr., which proved to be difficult versus the Bears' improved secondary. The Browns have an awful defensive backfield for the most part, but they do have Joe Haden, who could limit Beckham just a bit. Unfortunately for the Browns, NFL rules state that quarterbacks are able to throw to receivers outside of the primary option, so Sterling Shepard could have his best performance yet.
CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Josh McCown will start this game for a concussed Cody Kessler. That may sound dangerous, as McCown has been a turnover machine the past two weeks, but he didn't get very many reps in practice and couldn't prepare for the opposition. He'll have all week to get ready for the Giants. That said, it still wouldn't surprise me if Landon Collins picked him off once or twice.
However, the Browns do have some edges on this side of the ball. The Giants have a great pass rush on the exterior, but tackles Joe Thomas and Austin Pasztor have been playing well. Thomas has once again been performing on a Hall of Fame level, and so I think he'll be able to keep Olivier Vernon out of the backfield for the most part. Meanwhile, Gary Barnidge figures to abuse the Giants' poor linebackers. Tight ends have enjoyed strong performances against New York all year - Zach Miller tore them apart in a half of action last week - so Barnidge could go off. The same can be said for Terrelle Pryor, who has been great all season.
It'd be nice if the Browns could run the ball well with Isaiah Crowell, but they just haven't opened up quality rushing lanes ever since losing Joel Bitonio to injury. Besides, the Giants have done a decent job of stuffing opposing ground attacks all year.
RECAP: I know I've sworn off the Browns after their Thursday debacle against the Ravens, but I'm afraid that I've fallen off the wagon. Not only is this a two-unit wager on the Browns, but I'm locking it in at +7 -105 (Bovada)!
Am I crazy? Perhaps, but this line is just way too high. Think about it this way: The Browns and 49ers are about the same, while the Dolphins and Giants are nearly identical in overall talent as well. Yet, the Dolphins are -7 at home, while the Giants are favored by the same amount on the road. How does that make any sense?
Besides, how can I pass up an opportunity to bet against New York? This team should've lost so many games it won this year. The Giants could easily be 3-7 right now. Let's say they were 5-5. Would they still be laying a touchdown on the road here? I think not. Keep in mind that the Browns had the cover in hand last week versus the Steelers, who are better than the Giants, but McCown lost a fumble that was returned for a score. Had that not occurred, Cleveland would've covered.
I absolutely love the Browns in this spot. Unfortunately, I don't trust them enough to bet three or more units on them, so I'll keep it at two. I am locking this in, however, because a huge bet was just made on Cleveland, moving the line down on Pinnacle from +7 to +6.5. Many books play "follow the leader" with Pinnacle, so this spread could drop across the board soon. Perhaps it'll pop back up, but I'm not willing to risk it.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I locked this in earlier, but the line hasn't really moved yet. I have no regrets about it. At least not yet.
SATURDAY NOTES: The Browns are available at +7.5 -115 at Bovada, which I would take over +7 -110. Nothing has changed, as the Browns seem like the obvious side over a New York team that should've lost to the Bears last week. If I trusted Cleveland more, this would be a much greater bet.
FINAL THOUGHTS: There's the sharp money I've been expecting! This spread has dropped to -6.5 in many books. However, Bovada is still offering +7.5 -120, so I'll definitely take that.
The Psychology. Edge: Browns.
The Giants have the Steelers and Cowboys after this easy game, so they'll overlook the Browns.
The Vegas. Edge: Browns.
A no-brainer to so many people.
Percentage of money on New York: 81% (33,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Browns.
Giants are 20-30 ATS as favorites of 6.5 or more the previous 50 instances.
Week 12 NFL Picks - Late Games
Seattle at Tampa Bay,
Carolina at Oakland,
Kansas City at Denver,
New England at NY Jets,
Green Bay at Philadelphia
Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted
whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.
Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.
Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 18, 2020): 1-5 (-$1,430)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 18, 2020): 0-2 (-$575)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 18, 2020): 0-2 (-$855)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 18, 2020): 2-3-1 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 18, 2020): $0
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-2, 50.0% (-$135)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 132-123-6, 52.6% (+$3,280) 2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 43-42-3, 50.6% (-$2,650) 2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515) 2020 Season Over-Under: 137-119-6, 53.5% ($0) 2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$375
1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%) 2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%) 2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%) 2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%) 2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%) 2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%) 2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%) 2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%) 2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585) 2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105) 2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235) 2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880) 2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335) 2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445) 2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825) 2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885) 2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215) 2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780) 2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300) 2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845) 2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%) 2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%) 2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%) 2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%) 2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%) 2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110) 2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510) 2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260) 2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180) 2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715) 2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130) 2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890) 2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820) 2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475) 2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395) 2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670) 2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%) 2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%) 2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%) 2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%) 2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%) 2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420) 2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055) 2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330) 2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790) 2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260) 2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650) 2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970) 2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120) 2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465) 2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595) 2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735) 2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%) 2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%) 2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%) 2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%) 2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%) 2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%) 2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900) 2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860) 2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195) 2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5) 2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135) 2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30) 2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340) 2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0) 2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95) 2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640) 2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225) 2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035 2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775 2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865 2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200 2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590 2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685 2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245 2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855 2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275 2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510 2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495 2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%) 2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400) 2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720) 2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640) 2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810) 2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870) 2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560) 2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900) 2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350) 2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100) 2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780) 2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040) 2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640) 2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,989-2,760-179, 52.0% (+$13,585) Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 953-858-49 (52.6%) Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 452-396-23 (53.3%) Career Over-Under: 2,459-2,413-66 (50.5%) Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-15-1 (61.1%) Career NFL Picks of the Month: 44-29-1 (60.3%)
My Team-by-Team ATS Record This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not
displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.