NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 11, 2016



NFL Picks (Preseason 2016): 12-7-1 (+$1,290)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2016): 13-3 (+$1,735) full review
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2016): 9-7 (-$430) full review
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2016): 7-7-2 (+$880) full review
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2016): 7-8 (-$70) full review
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2016): 6-7-1 (+$115) full review
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2016): 7-7-1 (+$515) full review
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2016): 11-4 (+$1,560) full review
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2016): 8-4-1 (-$60) full review
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2016): 5-6-2 (-$1,170) full review
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2016): 9-4-1 (+$80)

NFL Picks (2016): 94-64-9 (+$4,445)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 21, 6:45 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 11 NFL Picks - Early Games







Miami Dolphins (5-4) at Los Angeles Rams (4-5)
Line: Dolphins by 1.5. Total: 39.5.

Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Rams -1.5.
Walt's Calculated Line: Rams -2.
Sunday, Nov 20, 4:05 PM
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: None.

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Also, a reminder to make your pick for the WalterFootball.com 2016 NFL Survivor Pool if you're still alive! We had 2,430 entries to start, with 412 entering Week 7. We're now down to 147, thanks to the Vikings' epic stink bomb a few Monday nights ago. Eleven people lost last week because of the Chargers and Packers.

Make sure to check out our Fantasy Football Who to Start Weekly Rankings for weekly fantasy start-sit advice.

Also, this is not an ad because I'm not getting paid for it, but I wanted to share this Somerdan's Hobbies Web site here because my good friend Dan started this hobby site. If you like sports cards, action figures, comics, etc. check it out. I ordered something from the Walking Dead off of there, and the product came quickly.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: The Rams have finally done it. They've announced that Jared Goff will start his first game as a pro. This was the right move, without a doubt. Case Keenum had some strong moments earlier in the season, but his play had fallen off, and he was guilty of some horrible mistakes in the Rams' recent losses. Goff can't possibly be much worse, can he?

The Rams also did a good job of making sure that Goff had a manageable first opponent. Miami's secondary is not very good. Byron Maxwell has struggled often this year, and yet he's somehow the team's top cornerback. Reshad Jones, meanwhile, has been long gone because of an injury. Goff should be able to have success airing the ball out to Kenny Britt, who would've enjoyed a monster performance last week had Los Angeles stuck with the game plan of feeding the ball to him in the second half.

Instead, the Rams went into a shell and tried to run out the clock with Todd Gurley. It worked, so it's difficult to criticize them too much. Besides, Gurley could have even more success in this matchup. The Dolphins are pretty weak at stopping opposing ground attacks, so Gurley could finally have the sort of huge outing his fantasy owners were hoping for when they selected him with their first-round pick.

MIAMI OFFENSE: The Dolphins, of course, will attempt to establish the rush as well. Jay Ajayi has enjoyed a terrific streak lately. He's not gaining 200 yards on the ground anymore, but he's been very effective, and his presence has made things much easier for Ryan Tannehill.

Ajayi could have issues finding running room in this contest, however. The Rams are excellent against the run, so they should be able to do a decent job containing Ajayi, forcing Tannehill to beat them downfield.

The issue with that is Tannehill will have to deal with the Rams' ferocious pass rush, as well as stellar cornerback Trumaine Johnson. However, this assumes that Robert Quinn will play. Quinn was hospitalized for some unknown illness Monday, but he was released from the hospital, and Jeff Fisher said the outlook is positive on Quinn, who, according to Fisher, was just "undergoing some tests." Quinn's absence would completely change the dynamics of this game, as Branden Albert is incapable of blocking him, but it sounds like he'll be on the field Sunday.

RECAP: This line is off by 3.5 points. I think the Rams should be favored by two, as these teams are pretty close to even. Instead, the Dolphins are favored by 1.5 as a result of last week's victory at San Diego.

Miami has been great during its four-game winning streak; don't get me wrong. However, the Dolphins were able to win last week because Philip Rivers self-destructed and threw some uncharacteristic interceptions in what was a 50-50 contest. Before that, they needed a kick return to defeat the Jets. The Dolphins have stayed out on the West Coast for an entire week, so I don't think that bodes well for them against a very physical Los Angeles team that could have a much better record than its 4-5 mark.

I also like the Goff decision, as it could inject some life into this offense, which has been horrible to watch. The Dolphins have no film on Goff, so that could provide an advantage for the Rams, assuming that Goff isn't absolutely horrible.

I like the Rams enough to bet three units on them. I'll lower my wager if Quinn is out, but assuming he plays, I think they have a good chance of pulling the upset against the heavily publicly backed Dolphins.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: A major reason why the Dolphins have enjoyed a four-game winning streak is that they've had a healthy offensive line. That's not the case anymore because Branden Albert is out. That means a backup or rookie left tackle will have to block Robert Quinn. Good luck with that! The Rams are definitely the play for me. This line moved to +2, but quickly was sent back down to +1.5, thanks to sharp money.

SATURDAY NOTES: I've gotten more comments about this game than anyone, as everyone is saying that the Rams will lose because of Jared Goff. I don't see what Goff has to do with this game. The Dolphins will be missing two of their best offensive linemen, which is what happened when they got off to their 1-4 start. The Rams' defensive line will dominate the trenches, so Los Angeles should be able to win a close, grindy game. Four of the top five players in the Supercontest have picked the Rams, while the public is all over Miami, which is not a surprise, considering the comments I've gotten. I'm going to increase this to four units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have been taking the Rams on Sunday morning. The line is even Rams -1 at Pinnacle! It's still +1.5 at Bovada. I like the reports that Jared Goff has been insisting for extra player-only practices.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: Rams.
The public is loving the Dolphins all of a sudden.
  • Percentage of money on Miami: 77% (27,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Rams.
  • Underdog is 72-39 ATS in the Dolphins' last 111 games.
  • Dolphins are 20-7 ATS as a road underdog of less than 5 since 2008. ???
  • Dolphins are 4-10 ATS as a favorite coming off a SU win as an underdog since 2007.
  • Jeff Fisher is 54-38 ATS as an underdog since 2006.
  • Opening Line: Rams -1.
  • Opening Total: 41.
  • Weather: Rain, 64 degrees. Light wind.


    Week 11 NFL Pick: Rams 16, Dolphins 13
    Rams +1.5 (4 Units) -- Incorrect; -$440
    Under 39.5 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Dolphins 14, Rams 10




    New England Patriots (7-2) at San Francisco 49ers (1-8)
    Line: Patriots by 11.5. Total: 51.5.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Patriots -14.5.
    Walt's Calculated Line: Patriots -13.
    Sunday, Nov 20, 4:25 PM
    Comment on this game

    The Game. Edge: Patriots.

    Emmitt on the Brink is back for Season 9! Season 8 saw Emmitt going to North Korea to stop Kim Jong-un from destroying the world. It featured a mind-blowing twist at the very end that you absolutely need to check out if you haven't already.

    Season 9 will deal with election stuff, and it begins with something strange happening to Emmitt while he's stuck in traffic at a protest rally. In the 10th chapter, Emmitt and his friends meet with Donald Trump, who might be their only hope of taking down the League of Failed General Managers.

    NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Ian Rapoport reported Monday evening that Rob Gronkowski suffered a punctured lung at the end of the Seattle contest and that he would miss at least one game. Adam Schefter disputed the report later that night, tweeting that it was just a "not overly serious" chest injury. It's unclear who's right as of this moment, but I suppose we'll find out soon enough.

    Regardless, it's safe to say that the Patriots won't need Gronkowski on the field to defeat the lowly 49ers. San Francisco's defense is a train wreck. The pass rush can't put any sort of pressure on the quarterback, so Tom Brady will have all the time he needs to find his targets. This includes Martellus Bennett, who figures to have a big game if Gronkowski is out of the lineup.

    Brady may not need to do anything anyway, as LeGarrette Blount figures to trample San Francisco. It's been well publicized how bad the 49ers' run defense is, so Blount will be very difficult for the host to bring down. Unlike the Cardinals, the Patriots don't have any major holes on the offensive line as a result of injury, so Blount probably won't disappoint like David Johnson did.

    SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Much like the 49ers, the Patriots don't have any semblence of a pass rush. Jabaal Sheard is OK, but that's about it. I'm still unclear as to why Bill Belichick opted to trade away Chandler Jones and Jamie Collins. The foolish Logan Mankins deal ended up costing the Patriots a Super Bowl last year, and it appears as though the Jones and Collins trades will end up hurting the Patriots this upcoming January (or February).

    Having said that, I'm not sure how much the pass rush will matter in this contest, given that Colin Kaepernick is fully capable of scampering out of trouble. However, I'm sure Belichick will have some chaotic schemes to confuse Kaepernick, which will lead to some turnovers. Kaepernick doesn't care to study film, so he won't see what's coming.

    Belichick is great at taking away one aspect of an opponent's offense, and I have to imagine Belichick will focus on erasing Carlos Hyde, given that Hyde is the only skill-position player on the 49ers that would start for more than a couple of other NFL teams.

    RECAP: I have no interest in betting this game. For picking-pool purposes, however, I have a rule when it comes to obscenely large spreads like this: If an elite team is battling one of the worst teams in the league, lay the points. Otherwise, go with the underdog. The 49ers covered last week because the Cardinals most certainly are not an elite team, and as a consequence, had trouble beating the spread. The Patriots are definitely an elite team, with or without Gronkowski. Thus, I think they're the right side, but I'm not going to run up to the betting window to lay nearly two touchdowns on the road because of possible back-door opportunities for the 49ers.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I'm definitely not betting this game, but the Patriots still seem like the right side. The sharps haven't touched this.

    SATURDAY NOTES: The spread dropped to -11.5 in the wake of the Rob Gronkowski news. It doesn't matter if Gronkowski plays or not; the Patriots are just way better than the 49ers, who probably won't be able to be competitive.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: I still have no interest in this game, even though it's down to -11. There's been some sharp (possibly shrap?) action on the 49ers. I wouldn't advise betting the worst team in the NFL.

    SportsLine's Micah Roberts is 22-6 in college football Over-Under picks this season (+1534 profit). He's also won his last 5 NFL Over-Under picks. You can get all of his plays by visiting SportsLine.com.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.
    There won't be many people betting San Francisco.
  • Percentage of money on New England: 88% (28,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: 49ers.
  • Patriots are 20-11 ATS on the road vs. NFC opponents since 2001.
  • Tom Brady is 191-65 as a starter (145-106 ATS).
  • Tom Brady is 34-16 ATS off a loss (4-10 ATS as -7 or more).
  • Tom Brady is 26-12 ATS off a loss since 2003 (4-9 ATS as -7 or more).
  • Patriots are 7-12 ATS as road favorites since 2013.
  • Favorites after playing the Seahawks are 11-27 ATS.
  • Opening Line: Patriots -13.5.
  • Opening Total: 51.5.
  • Weather: Light rain, 61 degrees. Light wind.


    Week 11 NFL Pick: Patriots 38, 49ers 17
    Patriots -11 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Over 51.5 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Patriots 30, 49ers 17






    Philadelphia Eagles (5-4) at Seattle Seahawks (6-2-1)
    Line: Seahawks by 7. Total: 43.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -5.5.
    Walt's Calculated Line: Seahawks -6.5.
    Sunday, Nov 20, 4:25 PM
    Comment on this game

    The Game. Edge: Seahawks.

    A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week's jerks entry is about Halloween and the Election.

    SEATTLE OFFENSE: There were signs that the Seahawks were capable of an offensive explosion against the Bills, but it was a bit unclear how potent they would be at New England, considering that Buffalo's secondary is a mess. Russell Wilson was even better against the Patriots, throwing for 348 yards and three touchdowns despite not being completely healthy enough to pick up chunks of yardage with his legs.

    The Seahawks had a terrific offensive performance, but the offensive line is still a concern. The Patriots can't pressure the quarterback, so they couldn't hound Wilson. The Eagles will be able to with Brandon Graham, Connor Barwin and Fletcher Cox. Graham and Cox have especially been great this season, and they both have lopsided matchups in this contest. They'll need to put an incredible amount of heat on Wilson because Philadelphia's secondary won't be able to hold up, as there are bound to be blown coverages once again.

    The Eagles will have to worry about C.J. Prosise as well, as the dynamic running back has added a new element to Seattle's offense. He's a matchup nightmare, as the Patriots quickly realized, so he'll surely be a big factor in this contest. However, the Eagles should be able to stop the run well with Bennie Logan back in the lineup.

    PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: I'm interested to see how Carson Wentz performs in this sort of environment. Wentz played at a Division 1-AA school, so he's never taken the field in a place like Seattle. Veteran quarterbacks have trouble dealing with the loud noise that all of the 12s provide, so Wentz needs to be prepared.

    It's unfortunate for Wentz that he's not getting the Seahawks of a few weeks ago. That version of Seattle was missing Kam Chancellor and blowing coverages as a result. Chancellor is back, and it's safe to say that he had an impact against the Patriots. Wentz, who has sailed several high passes in some of his recent games, will definitely be picked off on numerous occasions if he releases high throws again.

    Wentz will also have to deal with pressure on his right side, as Lane Johnson's absence will be felt as Cliff Avril is breathing down his neck. The Eagles can counter this by establishing a strong rushing attack again, but the Seahawks don't have a soft defense up the middle like the Falcons possess. Thus, I'll be shocked if Ryan Mathews comes close to matching what he did last week.

    RECAP: There was a bit of line value with the Seahawks on the advance spread, which was -5.5. As for -6.5, not so much. That's exactly what I made the line, so there's no value one way or another.

    I've gone back and forth on this game, actually, as it's a tough one to call. The Seahawks are going to be very strong down the stretch once again, but I'm concerned about their ability to pass protect in this contest. They're also coming off an emotional victory against the Patriots. With tons of public money coming in on Seattle, I'll take the Eagles, but I'll need a much better number to consider placing an actual bet on them.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Nothing has been happening here, which is strange, considering all of the public money on the Seahawks. The books appear scared to move this to +7 because of a sharp backlash. I'd consider a small wager on the Eagles +7 as well.

    SATURDAY NOTES: This line is still -6.5 in most places. However, Eagles +7 -115 is available at Bovada, which is enticing for a small wager. I'm going to think it over and perhaps place a unit on Philadelphia on Sunday morning.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: A line of +7 -115 is still available at Bovada. I've been deciding between a non-bet and a one-unit wager, so why not a half-unit pick? Seattle is such a hot team right now, but it could be flat against a Philadelphia team that could give them trouble with its pass rush.





    The Psychology. Edge: Eagles.
    The Seahawks are coming off an emotional victory. They're well ahead of the teams in their division, so they may not be focused for Philadelphia.


    The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.
    There's a high volume of bets on the Seahawks.
  • Percentage of money on Seattle: 68% (22,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.
  • Eagles are 26-15 ATS as road underdogs since 2005.
  • Seahawks are 37-19 ATS as home favorites since 2007.
  • Opening Line: Seahawks -6.
  • Opening Total: 46.
  • Weather: Light rain, 53 degrees. Mild wind, 15 mph.


    Week 11 NFL Pick: Seahawks 24, Eagles 19
    Eagles +7 -115 (0.5 Units) -- Incorrect; -$60
    Under 43 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Seahawks 26, Eagles 15






    Green Bay Packers (4-5) at Washington Redskins (5-3-1)
    Line: Redskins by 3. Total: 49.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Redskins -1.5.
    Walt's Calculated Line: Redskins -1.5.
    Sunday, Nov 20, 8:30 PM
    Comment on this game

    The Game. Edge: None.

    Trolling will continue. I can't attack the NFL.com or ESPN boards because the fascist scum working at Facebook prevented me from making posts that others besides my friends can see. They've also been penalizing the other trolls. However, I have been hitting up the team pages on Facebook.

    The Seahawks battled the Patriots last week, so that gave me an opportunity to troll New England fans and bring up the fact that Bill Belichick and Tom Brady both endorsed Donald Trump:



    Unfortunately, no one brought up the political things I mentioned, focusing instead of my horrible spelling. And by the way, what's wrong with liking your own comments? Why can't you like what you post?

    Here's something from Seattle's page:



    I honestly didn't know what to type next in that post, so I just decided to stop writing. I was hoping someone would pick up on that, but alas, that was not the case. I do like Cynthia's suggestion to spell check. It's almost as if she thinks Mario is capable of doing something like that.

    GREEN BAY OFFENSE: As if the Packers weren't wounded nearly enough, they may now be without left tackle David Bakhtiari and right guard T.J. Lang for the next game or two. Both sustained injuries against the Titans and are questionable at best heading into this contest.

    That's definitely not good news. Lang's absence won't hurt very much because Washington's defensive interior happens to be pretty weak, but Bakhtiari being out would help Preston Smith put pressure on Aaron Rodgers. Fortunately for Rodgers, he appears to have a quality matchup regardless. The Vikings were able to throw on the Redskins pretty easily despite their offensive line woes, as Washington's secondary is pretty pedestrian, excluding Josh Norman. I know that's a big name to exclude, but Rodgers has a multitude of weapons to work with, and both Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb will be a weak healthier, so Rodgers doesn't have to focus on throwing to one side.

    The Packers will once again struggle to run the ball, but they'll at least have a real running back in the backfield, as James Starks will be capable of playing more this week. Besides, the Vikings had success with their passing game with Matt Asiata lining up in the backfield.

    WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The Redskins will be able to throw all over the Packers as well. Of course, this goes without saying, as everyone has been able to do this in 2016. The Packers simply have too many injuries in their secondary and linebacking corps to deal with opposing passing attacks.

    If you're looking for one specific player to make Green Bay's evening a living hell, I'd look at Jordan Reed. The dynamic tight end didn't do much last week in a tough matchup, but considering Delanie Walker just ate up the Packer linebackers, I imagine Reed will be able to pick up where Walker left off.

    I think the question is whether or not Robert Kelley will be able to run all over the Packers like DeMarco Murray did last week. Kelley is a strong runner who doesn't take losses, but he's no Murray. The Packers still have some strong players on the defensive line that could prevent Kelley from churning out big gains.

    RECAP: You have to love public overreactions. A week ago, the Packers were three-point favorites at Tennessee. Now, they're three-point underdogs at Washington (-120 at Bovada and BetUS). The public doesn't have much love for the Titans or Redskins, so a six-point swing is pretty crazy, albeit predictable.

    Can I say something controversial? Wait, why am I asking, I don't care. The Packers are not as bad as people think they are. I think they were caught off-guard by how good Tennessee was. The week before, they probably beat the Colts if it wasn't for an opening kickoff return, as they outplayed Indianapolis for most of the afternoon. Prior to that, the Packers had the lead at Atlanta before Matt Ryan led the Falcons on a game-winning drive at the very end. What if Green Bay held on to the lead at Atlanta and managed to defeat Indianapolis? They'd be 6-3 as a result, and no one would be saying anything bad about them.

    Sure, the Packers' defense has its problems, but they can still score in bunches, as the Falcons learned. The Redskins, meanwhile, have issues of their own in the secondary, and they'll once again be without their top offensive player, Trent Williams. Also, it needs to be noted that Washington has to play Dallas on Thanksgiving, just four days after this late Sunday night affair. The Redskins can't possibly be completely focused, especially if they're buying into the public notion that the Packers are horrible.

    This is one of my top plays of the week. I'm taking the Packers for four units, and it might be five if I can get +3 -110. I love the prospect of getting Rodgers as an underdog, especially since he's in a situation where everyone is telling him how bad he and his teammates are.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There were some weird things happening with the juice on this game at Pinnacle. All of the books now have Redskins -3 +100 listed (+105 at Bovada). Pinnacle had a line of -3 -103, then they quickly moved to -3 +103 and then -3 +111 minutes after that. This tells me that some substantial money came in on the Packers. I'm still holding out hope for +3 -110. Oh, and by the way, our podcast this week is going to have some dubious numbers on Kirk Cousins, so stay tuned for that.

    SATURDAY NOTES: I'm going to my best friend's wedding - I'm actually typing this in the car right now - but I wanted to post this before the lines disappear. I'm not even sure if they will, but I'd rather be safe than sorry. I want to lock in the Packers +3 for five units (unit change). The Packers should be the right side. They'll only be missing one lineman, and I have to believe we'll get their best effort following a blowout. Remember, they nearly won in Atlanta. Meanwhile, the Redskins have to play in four days against the hated Cowboys. They once again will be missing Trent Williams, while Kirk Cousins leads the NFL in should-be interceptions, according to Kenny from our podcast.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: I still can't believe what happened in that Rams-Dolphins game. What a disgusting ending. Hopefully we'll have better luck in this game. I locked the Packers in at +3 for five units on Saturday ngiht. That number is still available, albeit at -115 on 5Dimes. I still like +3 -115 for five units. The Packers will bounce back after being humiliated last week, as they just might be able to capitalize on Kirk Cousins' sloppy throws. They'll at least pressure Cousins heavily, as Cousins once again won't have Trent Williams. There's not much sharp action on this game.


    The Psychology. Edge: Packers.
    The Redskins have to play in just four days against the Cowboys, yet the NFL stuck them on Sunday Night Football. Great work, Roger Goodell! The Packers will be desperate.


    The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.
    Slight lean on the visitor.
  • Percentage of money on Green Bay: 62% (57,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Packers.
  • Aaron Rodgers is 72-46 ATS since 2009.
  • Aaron Rodgers is 32-23 ATS on the road as long as he's not favored by 6.5 or more points.
  • Aaron Rodgers is 22-8 ATS after a loss.
  • Aaron Rodgers is 14-11 ATS as an underdog.
  • Mike McCarthy is 6-0 ATS as an underdog following a loss as a favorite.
  • Opening Line: Redskins -2.
  • Opening Total: 51.
  • Weather: Clear, 39 degrees. HEAVY WINDS, 20 mph.


    Week 11 NFL Pick: Packers 24, Redskins 21
    Packers +3 (5 Units) -- Incorrect; -$550
    Under 49 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Redskins 42, Packers 24






    Houston Texans (6-3) vs. Oakland Raiders (7-2)
    Line: Raiders by 6.5. Total: 46.5.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Raiders -3.
    Walt's Calculated Line: Raiders -6.5.
    Monday, Nov 21, 8:30 PM
    At Mexico
    Comment on this game

    The Game. Edge: Raiders.

    This week on ESPN, we're going to have some bald dude and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, and aloof people like Dan Fouts. Here's what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

    Reilly: Welcome to the city of Mexico, where tonight, the Houston Texas play the Oakland Raiders. Or, should I say, Rrrrrraiddeerrrrs? I invented that one, and that Chris Berman dick stole it from me. Guys, I don't know why we're in Mexico. I've always considered it to be a fifth-world country, so I don't know why it's allowed to be in America. If I were the president of the United States, I would banish Mexico from America and then I'd shoot people who tried to cross the border with a machine gun!

    Emmitt: Pablo, I has two issue with what you just say. First of all, Mexico not a city of the United State in American. Mexico are a state. He right next to the state of Arizonus and the Texas, which nickname the Long State. The second thing I have issue with are when you say you gonna shoot the Mexicus with a machine gun. If the gun a machine, why do you has to shoot itself when the machine usually a thing that do thing all by itselves?

    Herm: MEXICO IS NOT A CITY! MEXICO IS NOT A STATE! MEXICO IS NOT A COUNTY! MEXICO IS NOT A VILLAGE! MEXICO IS NOT A TOWN! MEXICO IS NOT A HAMLET! AND HAMLET WAS A PLAY! IT WAS ABOUT A GUY NAMED HAMLET! BUT HAMLET NOT FROM MEXICO! NOT NEAR MEXICO! NOT CLOSE TO MEXICO! MEXICO IS NOT A COUNTRY EITHER! WHOOPS, HERM MADE A MISTAKE! HERM MADE AN ERROR! HERM MADE A BLUNDER! PLEASE FORGIVE HERM! HERM ASKING FOR FORGIVENESS! HERM ASKING FOR AN APOLOGY! WILL YOU PLEASE ACCEPT!? WILL YOU PLEASE FORGIVE!? HERM NEEDS TO BE FORGIVEN! HERM'S BEGGING TO BE FORGIVEN! FORGIVEN FOR WHAT!? HERM'S NOT SURE! HERM ALREADY FORGOT! HERM TRYING TO REMEMBER! HERM... uhh... umm...

    Reilly: Herm, no one is going to forgive you because you suck. Guys, I'm not feeling safe. I feel like Mexicans are going to steal my precious. I paid $20 of my allowance money for this Carson Wentz bobblehead and I've seen some Mexicans eying it. Help me, guys! Help keep my precious safe!

    Tollefson: Kevin, you need to calm the f*** down. Mexicans won't steal stuff because they're too lazy. This is why I haven't kidnapped any Mexican women yet. They can walk around my apartment naked, but will they cook and clean for me? I think not, so they're only halfway useful.

    Millen: Guys, can we cut down on the racism and begin focusing on more important stuff? I looked forward to inserting kielbasas into Mexican 100-percent USDA backsides, but there are no kielbasas in this country! I showed up to the sort of bar where 100-percent USDA Men find each other to insert kielbasas into backsides, and after flirting with some of them, I went back to one of their apartments. I asked where his kielbasas were, and he didn't know what I was talking about. Then, he gave me some taco ground beef and asked me to insert that into his backside. Gentlemen, I was absolutely horrified. I ran out of the apartment and cried on the way home.

    Wolfley: I LOVE STICKING GROUND BEEF INTO MY OWN BACKSIDE AND THEN EATING IT. THEN, I TAKE PEANUT BUTTER AND DO THE SAME THING. AT LEAST I THINK IT'S PEANUT BUTTER.

    Millen: I've done that as well, many times!

    Fouts: And here's what they mean by sticking ground beef into their backside. You take some ground beef. And here's what I mean by ground beef. It's beef that has grown out of the ground, kind of like a plant. There are beef plants that grow out of the ground, and then farmers pick them and sell them to supermarkets. This is not to be confused with air beef, which is what I enjoy putting into tacos. Once you have ground beef, you grab some with your own hand. Then, you stick it into your backside. This is not to be confused with your front side. It's hard to stick stuff into your front side because there's not much of an opening.

    Millen: Don't estimate the hole on the front side, Daniel!

    Reilly: Guys, will you shut up already!? The Mexicans will hear that I bought a Carson Wentz bobblehead with my allowance! Uh oh, ugh, now it's time for Charles Davis to talk. Wait a second, I almost forgot that Charles Davis was taken away by Hillary Clinton's security team for talking about her scandals, hahaha!

    Charles Davis: Now it's time to talk about a random topic, Kevin.

    Reilly: What? Where's that voice coming from!?

    Charles Davis' Voice: Let's talk about some Boy Meets World characters, Kevin. There's Cory Matthews, Kevin.

    Tollefson: There's a tape recorder somewhere!

    Charles Davis' Voice: How about Shawn Hunter, Kevin? What about Topanga Lawrence, Kevin? Let's discuss Eric Matthews, Kevin. Let's not forget Stuart Minkus, Kevin. Why not talk about Mr. Feeny, Kevin? Let's try one more, Kevin. Who was Cory's bully in high school, Kevin? I'll give you 716,000 guesses, Kevin. Oh, you guessed Jaime Lannister, Kevin? That's wrong, Kevin. Not a good guess, Kevin. It was Harley Keiner, Kevin.

    Reilly: F***ING CHARLES DAVIS, EVEN IN DEATH HE ANNOYS THE HELL OUT OF ME! WELL, I'M GIVING THIS TAPE RECORDER TO THE MEXICANS ONCE I FIND IT SO THEY CAN STEAL IT! HAHAHAHA! We'll be back after this!

    HOUSTON OFFENSE: Ninety-nine yards. That's all the Texans got out of Brock Osweiler last week against the Jaguars - a measly 99 yards. How embarrassing is it that he couldn't even get 100? I know Jacksonville's defense has gotten better, but come on! I can't imagine the Texans imagined this when spending $72 million on Osweiler this past offseason.

    Osweiler's inability to get the ball to DeAndre Hopkins is very discouraging, especially when considering that Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallett and Ryan Fitzpatrick were all capable of doing so prior to this season. Things will be especially difficult for Osweiler in that regard in this contest, given that Hopkins will be matched up against David Amerson, who has been spectacular at cornerback this year. Meanwhile, Sean Smith sounds like he may return this week, so he should be able to handle the banged-up Will Fuller.

    The Texans would be able to run the ball if this game had occurred about a month ago, but I don't give Lamar Miller much of a chance to be a big factor. That's because the Raiders' rush defense has improved tremendously ever since they plugged Perry Riley into the lineup. Riley, who once thrived for the Redskins when they ran a 4-3, struggled for a couple of years in a 3-4, but he's back to playing well in the appropriate system.

    OAKLAND OFFENSE: The Texans had an elite defense heading into the season, but they lost several players to injury. J.J. Watt is the big name, but they also sustained injuries to some skilled players in the secondary. As a result, Houston has struggled to defend the pass since the early going. That's obviously not good news heading into this sort of matchup.

    Derek Carr was on fire prior to the bye, so there's no reason to think why he would suddenly regress, especially when considering that the Texans have defensive issues. What Houston does well on this side of the ball is pressure the quarterback with Whitney Mercilus and Jadeveon Clowney. That won't be possible, however, given that the Raiders have a tremendous offensive line. If Oakland could deal with DeMarcus Ware and Ambassador Von Miller, it can surely keep Mercilus and Clowney out of the backfield.

    Great protection will allow Derek Carr to light up Houston's secondary, especially if top cornerback A.J. Bouye is out. I don't know how Bouye has done it, but he has made great strides this season. He was out last week with a sprained ankle. It sounded like he was close to playing, however, so he might be able to return. Still, stopping the Raiders' aerial attack is difficult, considering that they have two stud wideouts.

    RECAP: The Raiders have transformed into a public team of sorts, so it was surprising to me that this line came out short. I made Oakland -6.5, yet the spread opened -5. It has since been bet up by the public to -5.5 or -6.

    I'm going to take the Raiders for a unit. They should be able to handle the Texans, who have been blown out against every great team they've played this year. I don't see why this contest would be any different.

    Having this game played in Mexico City is a wild card, however. According to Mexican e-mailer Luis A., there are lots of Raider fans in his country, so this could be a home game of sorts for Oakland. Then again, as Matvei pointed out to me, the extremely high altitude of this location could supress scoring, which would favor the underdog.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread moved from -5.5 to -6.5 because of public action, and this prompted to sharps to snap up +6.5. This line is now down to +6. I still like the Raiders a bit at -6, but wasn't planning to bet them at -6.5.

    SATURDAY NOTES: Nothing has changed here. I still think the Raiders should be able to win by 10-14 points or so, as the Texans haven't been competitive against top-level competition this year. However, the Mexico City dynamic is an unknown, so I wouldn't risk a big wager on this game.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: There is no sharp action on this game, as the public has moved this line up without any resistance. It's -7 in some places, though -6.5 -105 at CRIS and -6.5 -107 at Pinnacle (if you're out of the country). The reason the sharps don't want the Texans is because Houston sucks. The Texans could easily be 4-5 or maybe even 3-6 right now, and every good team they've battled has blown them out. The sharps don't want the Raiders because the line is right where it should be. I think Oakland is still worth a one-unit wager, but not anything more. One last thing: I'm going to pick half of a unit on the under, as Matvei suggested that the scoring could be suppressed because of the altitude.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: Texans.
    No surprise that everyone is betting on the Raiders.
  • Percentage of money on Oakland: 77% (66,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Opening Line: Raiders -5.5.
  • Opening Total: 46.5.
  • Weather: .


    Week 11 NFL Pick: Raiders 24, Texans 16
    Raiders -6.5 -105 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Under 46.5 (0.5 Units) -- Incorrect; -$55
    Raiders 27, Texans 20





    Week 11 NFL Picks - Early Games
    New Orleans at Carolina, Tampa Bay at Kansas City, Baltimore at Dallas, Pittsburgh at Cleveland, Jacksonville at Detroit, Tennessee at Indianapolis, Chicago at NY Giants, Buffalo at Cincinnati, Arizona at Minnesota


    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.


  • Teaser: Titans +8.5, Rams +8 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
  • First-Half Line: Browns +5.5 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
  • Moneyline: Buccaneers +250 (0.5 Units) -- Correct; +$125
  • Moneyline: Bears +255 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$100
  • Moneyline: Packers +130 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$100


    LOADING COMMENTS...



    NFL Picks - Jan. 16


    2021 NFL Mock Draft - Jan. 13


    Fantasy Football Rankings - Jan. 11


    2022 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 15


    NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 14


    2020 College Football Recruiting Rankings - April 14


    2020 NBA Mock Draft - Sept. 27




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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 11-5 (2014-19: 47-50)
    Bears: 6-11 (2014-19: 45-48)
    Bucs: 7-9 (2014-19: 44-45)
    49ers: 8-8 (2014-19: 53-44)
    Eagles: 8-8 (2014-19: 55-46)
    Lions: 9-6 (2014-19: 53-42)
    Falcons: 9-7 (2014-19: 55-45)
    Cardinals: 10-6 (2014-19: 45-50)
    Giants: 3-13 (2014-19: 52-41)
    Packers: 12-4 (2014-19: 54-46)
    Panthers: 13-3 (2014-19: 47-52)
    Rams: 5-12 (2014-19: 53-41)
    Redskins: 7-8 (2014-19: 47-48)
    Vikings: 9-7 (2014-19: 51-45)
    Saints: 7-10 (2014-19: 49-50)
    Seahawks: 8-9 (2014-19: 43-56)
    Bills: 10-7 (2014-19: 52-42)
    Bengals: 9-5 (2014-19: 42-52)
    Colts: 8-7 (2014-19: 50-45)
    Broncos: 9-7 (2014-19: 45-48)
    Dolphins: 12-4 (2014-19: 47-46)
    Browns: 7-9 (2014-19: 46-44)
    Jaguars: 4-11 (2014-19: 41-55)
    Chargers: 8-6 (2014-19: 46-49)
    Jets: 8-8 (2014-19: 50-40)
    Ravens: 5-11 (2014-19: 48-47)
    Texans: 10-5 (2014-19: 48-47)
    Chiefs: 12-4 (2014-19: 56-50)
    Patriots: 6-10 (2014-19: 55-53)
    Steelers: 7-10 (2014-19: 56-43)
    Titans: 10-7 (2014-19: 49-47)
    Raiders: 7-9 (2014-19: 43-52)
    Divisional: 43-47 (2011-19: 405-394)
    2x Game Edge: 63-60 (2011-19: 213-210)
    2x Motivation Edge: 45-30 (2011-19: 347-288)
    2x Spread Edge: 42-33 (2011-19: 61-55)
    2x Vegas Edge: 25-22 (2011-19: 320-335)
    2x Trend Edge: 18-13 (2011-19: 250-228)
    Double Edge: 27-21 (2011-19: 122-107)
    Triple Edge: 5-4 (2011-19: 21-18)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
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