NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 7, 2014

NFL Picks (Preseason 2014): 8-7-1 (-$20)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2014): 8-8 (+$110)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2014): 7-9 (-$1,150)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2014): 6-9-1 (+$130)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2014): 6-7 (+$640)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2014): 9-4-2 (+$255)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2014): 5-9-1 (-$1,230)

NFL Picks (2014): 49-53-5 (-$1,265)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Oct. 20, 5:30 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 7 NFL Picks – Early Games

Kansas City Chiefs (2-3) at San Diego Chargers (5-1)
Line: Chargers by 3. Total: 46.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Chargers -5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Chargers -6.
Sunday, Oct. 19, 4:05 ET
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The Game. Edge: Chargers.

This is a reminder to get your pick in for the Survivor Pool. Of the 3,289 entries that began the year, only 799 remained last week. The survivor page will be updated soon.

Also, check out our Fantasy Football Who to Start Weekly Rankings for weekly fantasy start-sit advice.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: How happy are the Chargers that Ryan Mathews, Danny Woodhead and Donald Brown all suffered injuries? Well, maybe they aren’t exactly thrilled that three of their players have gotten hurt, but it has allowed them to find Branden Oliver, who has been a revelation. Despite playing in his fourth game this past Sunday, Oliver operated as the every-down back and succeeded. He’s Darren Sproles with more power, and he’s made San Diego’s offense so much better.

The Chargers will definitely utilize Oliver extensively against the Chiefs, who struggle to stop the run, ranking 30th in that department. Kansas City has yielded at least 120 rushing yards in three of its five games thus far, which is not good news considering that they’ll have to contain a talent like Oliver.

The Chiefs won’t even be able to focus on Oliver because Philip Rivers is playing at an MVP level. Kansas City can at least contain the pass, thanks to its ability to get to the quarterback, but Rivers is capable of releasing the ball quickly, which is why the Chargers have surrendered just eight sacks all year.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Chiefs, conversely, don’t pass protect as well. They’ve allowed 13 sacks themselves, which doesn’t sound much more significant than eight until you factor in that San Diego has played one fewer game. The Chargers didn’t show it against Oakland, but they can get after the quarterback pretty effectively.

The Chiefs’ sack figure of 13 would be much higher if Alex Smith didn’t break free of pressure and scramble around. Smith bursts for decent gains on the ground numerous times per contest, and it’s definitely an important part of what Kansas City does offensively. Smith has also begun looking for Travis Kelce on a more-frequent basis. The Chargers haven’t battled against a team with an athletic tight end like Kelce thus far, so it’ll be interesting to see what the emerging intermediate threat does.

Of course, the Chiefs’ offense begins with Jamaal Charles, who didn’t get enough touches in the San Francisco game prior to the bye. Andy Reid has undoubtedly heard about that for two weeks, so he’ll almost certainly get Charles involved early and often. San Diego is just a mediocre 18th against the rush (4.18 YPC).

RECAP: I’m pretty split on this game. On one hand, the Chargers are in a bad spot. They’re home favorites prior to playing on Thursday, and they have a big game against the Broncos coming up. Also, home favorites coming off a short road victory tend to struggle. And I don’t want to forget that Reid is coming off a bye, which has been a great situation for him, historically.

On the other hand, this spread seems to have been adjusted for all of San Diego’s issues. My calculated spread is +6, so we’re not getting good value at +4. The books, for whatever reason, haven’t respected the Chargers despite Mike McCoy’s coaching brilliance.

I’m going to take the Chiefs in what should be a close game, but I’m not happy about the lack of value we’re getting.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are betting the Chiefs. They’ve taken the spread down to +3.5 in most places. It’s still available at +4 -115 on Bovada if you’re interested, but I’m not betting on this game.

SUNDAY NOTES: It’s crazy how much the sharps have bet down the Chiefs. I even considered switching my pick to the Chargers because the spread is only three. I’ve had bad luck switching picks late in the week, so I’ll stick with Kansas City.

The Psychology. Edge: Chiefs.

The Chargers have the Broncos next week, so they could be looking ahead.

The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.
Slight lean on the Chiefs.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 64% (25,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

History: Home Team has won 22 of the last 32 meetings (Chargers have won 11 of the last 13).

Chiefs are 27-14 ATS in October since 2002.

Andy Reid is 10-5 ATS off a bye.

Mike McCoy is 16-6 ATS.

Opening Line: Chargers -5.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: .

Week 7 NFL Pick: Chargers 22, Chiefs 20
Chiefs +3 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 46 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Chiefs 23, Chargers 20

New York Giants (3-3) at Dallas Cowboys (5-1)
Line: Cowboys by 5. Total: 47.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Cowboys -3.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Cowboys -3.
Sunday, Oct. 19, 4:25 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Cowboys.

Emmitt on the Brink is back for Season 7! Emmitt and his friends arrive in Tampa, but find themselves in the middle of a gang war.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: For every negative sentence I write about the Cowboys, I get about 10 hate mails from crazed Dallas fans. It’s fine though; I enjoy it because hearing them rant nonsensically amuses me. They’ve recently criticized me for not giving the Cowboys’ defense much credit, but how can I? After all, Dallas is tied for 29th in terms of yards per play surrendered. Only the Falcons are worse.

The Cowboys are definitely better than I thought they’d be – Rolando McClain has been a stud, while having Orlando Scandrick back has helped immensely – but there are still plenty of holes on this unit. Its main issue is stopping the run. It shocked me that the Seahawks didn’t even bother to take advantage of this, giving Marshawn Lynch just two carries in the first half. The Giants have shown that they’ll stubbornly stick with the rush, and it’ll pay off here, as no team is worse at stopping ground attacks than Dallas is.

Having said that, the Giants will need the run to work well; otherwise Eli Manning will get crushed once again. The Cowboys have generated a quality pass rush through six weeks, thanks to the resurgent Henry Melton and emerging Tyrone Crawford. We’ve seen what happens when Manning is constantly under siege, so keeping him in short yardage will be especially key for New York.

DALLAS OFFENSE: Keeping Tony Romo clean will also be paramount, especially in the wake of Doug Free’s injury. The right tackle is out for this matchup, which will help the New York pass rushers tee off on the opposing quarterback as well. The Giants didn’t really show it Sunday night because of a glaring lack of effort, but they have a plethora of players who can apply pressure on signal-callers.

The Cowboys can nullify Jason Pierre-Paul, Johnathan Hankins and company by establishing DeMarco Murray once again. Murray is just the second running back in NFL history (Jim Brown) to open a season with six consecutive 100-yard rushing performances, and despite Free’s absence, you have to like his chances against a defense that finally allowed LeSean McCoy to get back into a groove.

Clearly, Dallas has an edge on this side of the ball – and I haven’t even discussed Dez Bryant yet – but its major challenge will be refraining from committing mistakes. They did a good job of this for the most part against the Seahawks, but that wasn’t nearly the case the previous week against Houston. Murray put the ball on the ground; receivers dropped passes; Romo committed a turnover … these sort of things tend to happen to the Cowboys more often than not, especially when they’re favored.

RECAP: The Giants are one of my top picks this week. Here’s why:

1. This spread is way too high because of public overreaction. The Cowboys were just -3.5 a week ago, and now they’re -6.5, which is crazy. A line movement of three points should not occur in a week, barring a major injury.

2. Speaking of the spread, Dallas has often faltered as large home favorites. This is especially true after a win; the Cowboys are just 3-15 against the spread when favored after a victory since 2010. It’s why the underdog is 47-19 ATS in Dallas games in that same span.

3. The public is pounding the Cowboys like it’s easy money. This is going to be one of the most highly bet games in Week 7. Vegas lost so much money last weekend that it would not be wise to make many square plays this week. Bob Scucci already said the ticket count on this game is 16:1 in favor of Dallas. That’s insane!

4. The Giants are in a great spot as a road team playing in its second-consecutive away contest as an underdog. Teams in this situation – think Chicago last week – cover at a two-thirds clip because Vegas doesn’t adjust the spread accordingly for this situation.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The pros are all over the Giants. I’d love to get +7, but it doesn’t appear as though that’ll happen. I’m still going to hold out hope.

SUNDAY NOTES: Ugh, so much for that +7. The +6 and +6.5 spreads are long gone. You can still get +5 at Bovada and some other books. I still love the Giants though, and so do the sharps.

The Psychology. Edge: Giants.

The Cowboys are coming off a huge victory as an underdog in Seattle, yet now they’re favored.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action all of a sudden.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 52% (54,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Giants.

History: Giants have won 8 of the last 12 meetings.

Giants are 39-21 ATS on the road since 2006 as long as they’re not favored by 3.5 or more.

Eli Manning is 31-20 ATS as an underdog since 2007.

The underdog is 47-19 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.

Cowboys are 10-20 ATS as home favorites in Cowboys Stadium (excluding Thanksgiving).

Cowboys are 3-15 ATS when favored after a win since 2010.

Opening Line: Giants -4.5.

Opening Total: 48.5

Weather: Dome.

Week 7 NFL Pick: Cowboys 22, Giants 20
Giants +5 (4 Units) — Incorrect; -$440
Under 47 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Cowboys 31, Giants 21

Arizona Cardinals (4-1) at Oakland Raiders (0-5)
Line: Cardinals by 4. Total: 46.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : No Line (Palmer & Stanton).
Walt’s Calculated Line: Cardinals -3.
Sunday, Oct. 19, 4:25 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Cardinals.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is about why telling the truth is not a good thing.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: Derek Carr has been very inconsistent thus far, but I suppose that’s to be expected from a rookie. He was solid against the Patriots back in Week 3, absolutely dreadful the following Sunday in London and then pretty competent against the Chargers this past weekend – until he wilted in the final few minutes, that is.

Carr has proven to be unpredictable, but I don’t see why he would regress all of a sudden. He’d have a good chance of doing so if the Cardinals still had Calais Campbell in the lineup, but the All-Pro five-technique is out. Arizona had issues putting pressure on Kirk Cousins last week as a consequence, which was not a good sign because the Redskins have struggled to block other opponents. Meanwhile, Patrick Peterson and rookie safety Deone Bucannon both struggled, which bodes well for the speedy Andre Holmes, who is finally seeing playing time in the wake of Dennis Allen’s firing.

The Raiders may also establish some semblance of a running attack. That may not seem like a possibility at first glance, considering that Arizona is No. 2 versus the rush (3.11 YPC), but with Campbell out, the Redskins did a decent job of churning out yardage on the ground, though they couldn’t really establish the run because they trailed for most of the contest.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: The Cardinals, meanwhile, have to be thrilled that they don’t have to utilize their own rookie signal-caller. The only way Logan Thomas will see the field is if disaster strikes; Carson Palmer is back, and while he’s not 100 percent, he was the one who finally got Larry Fitzgerald going last week.

The Raiders can’t like the sound of that, as they’ve had some issues covering this year. They also don’t have much of a pass rush, as St. Louis is the only team in the NFL with fewer sacks. Perhaps that’ll change, given Palmer’s lacking mobility, but the odds are against that happening.

Oakland isn’t any better when it comes to defending the run. The team has gotten better in that department recently after a very rough start, but I still expect Andre Ellington to have a big game, both as a rusher and a receiver out of the backfield.

RECAP: The Cardinals are in an awful spot. They have a pair of battles against 5-1 teams coming up (Eagles, Cowboys), and I can’t imagine they’ll be focused for the Raiders, who have shown some enthusiasm playing for Tony Sparano. That won’t last, but it’s here now, and it could allow Oakland to win a game or two. It must also be noted that there’s a ton of public money on Arizona.

I think the Raiders are the right side. The sharps do as well, as they’ve driven the spread down. However, Oakland is poisonous, and I don’t trust them enough to bet on them.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s tons of money on Arizona, yet there’s sharp play on the Raiders. The Cardinals are not nearly as good as their record indicates, as their defense has been lackluster in the wake of their injuries. Still though, I don’t trust Oakland enough to bet them.

SUNDAY NOTES: This spread has dropped because the professional money is on Oakland. You can still get the Raiders at +4 on Bovada, and I’m even going to bet them for one unit. The Cardinals are very overrated because, as I learned from some of the comments below, people still think their defense is good. It’s not – and Oakland is desperate.

The Psychology. Edge: Raiders.

The Cardinals might be in a breather alert, as they have a pair of 5-1 teams (Eagles, Cowboys) coming up after this game. The Raiders are desperate for a win.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

No one’s buying Oakland.

Percentage of money on Arizona: 82% (35,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: .

Raiders are 18-27 ATS in October since 2001.

Opening Line: Cardinals -3.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: .

Week 7 NFL Pick: Cardinals 16, Raiders 14
Raiders +4 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Under 46 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Cardinals 24, Raiders 13

San Francisco 49ers (4-2) at Denver Broncos (4-1)
Line: Broncos by 7. Total: 48.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Broncos -6.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Broncos -5.
Sunday, Oct. 19, 8:30 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Broncos.

I used to love making fun of GameCenter comments. The people on there were such idiots. There were even perverts like Aaron3619, who always asked chicks for their pictures so that he could carry them around.

I planned to mess with Aaron3619 as a fake user named TexasGirl1234, but NFL.com shut down its GameCenter and implemented Facebook comments instead. This enraged me, so get revenge, I made a fake Facebook account named Mario Migelini to troll people. Other readers followed suit and made fake accounts of their own.

Go here to see all of the NFL.com Troll Posts from myself and other trollers.

DENVER OFFENSE: How thrilled is NBC that it gets to broadcast this game? Peyton Manning will be looking to break Brett Favre’s career touchdown record, and he’ll be doing so against a team with one of the largest fan bases in the country. Everyone is going to be watching this game.

Can Manning throw three touchdowns to eclipse Favre? It’s a tough question because on one hand, the 49ers have a great defense and will undoubtedly show enough pride because they won’t want to go down in history for a dubious reason. On the other hand, it’s Peyton Manning. San Francisco’s secondary has been playing better of late, as it now ranks first in terms of stopping the pass (5.94 YPA). However, there are still several missing pieces on the defense, including Patrick Willis, who is unlikely to play with a sprained toe.

You can bet that Manning will look to exploit Willis’ backup, Chris Borland. The 49ers, of course, know that they’ll have to work extra hard to get to him, and they’ll be able to pressure him consistently with their three-man front, which Manning has struggled against in his career. Winning that battle will be the key to this victory because blitzing Manning will be suicide.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: It’s strange, but the Broncos’ defense has outplayed the offense thus far. DeMarcus Ware has made a huge difference, as he and Von Miller, along with a cast of others, have frequently gotten to the quarterback. That doesn’t bode well for the 49ers, as their offensive line has underperformed, thanks in part to Anthony Davis’ injury. Davis’ replacement, Jonathan Martin, has seen better moments while getting stuffed into a Miami locker, as he’s been somewhat of a turnstile.

Kaepernick won’t be able to lean on his running game either. The Broncos have a top-three ground defense, which has yielded 3.15 YPC to opposing running backs. Denver’s previous two opponents have combined for just 62 rushing yards. Frank Gore and Carlos Hyde struggled to find any lanes on Monday night, and that will be the case once again.

What the Broncos won’t be able to account for are Kaepernick’s legs. We’ve seen Denver’s stop unit struggle to defend Russell Wilson when he was on the move, and Kaepernick should have similar success while scrambling. Kaepernick doesn’t run much in meaningless games, but he’ll take off frequently in big contests. I’d say this qualifies as one.

RECAP: I hate going against Manning in national TV games, but this spread is just too large. The 49ers and Broncos are about equal, and there’s a decent amount of action coming in on the host. The public will be looking to win back its losses or double up with Denver.

Here are two more things to consider: First, the Broncos have to play the Chargers in just four days. Home favorites tend to look past the opposition prior to playing on Thursday. Second, the only game in which Denver has legitimately covered this year was when Logan Thomas played quarterback. The Broncos beat the number against the Jets, but needed a miraculous pick-six to do so.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The 49ers seem like the right side, especially at +7. The sharps agree. Remember, the public will be pounding the Broncos prior to kickoff.

SUNDAY NOTES: Happy with today’s results, save for the Cowboys-Giants game. Larry Donnell must have had money on Dallas. Ugh. Anyway, I still like the 49ers for two units. You can get them at +7 at Bovada. That’s what the sharps are betting.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 56% (35,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Jim Harbaugh is 4-0 ATS after Monday Night Football.

Peyton Manning is 13-9 ATS on Sunday Night Football since 2004.

Opening Line: Broncos -6.5.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: .

Week 7 NFL Pick: Broncos 30, 49ers 26
49ers +7 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Over 48 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Broncos 42, 49ers 17

Houston Texans (3-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-3)
Line: Steelers by 3. Total: 44.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Steelers -4.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Steelers -4.5.
Monday, Oct. 20, 8:30 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: None.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have Mike Tirico and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, complete morons like Ron Zappolo, and mindless automatons like Dan Fouts. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven clowns (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to Eastern Pennsylvania to the city of Pittsburgh, where tonight, the Pittsburgh Steelers take on the Houston Oilers. Guys, this is a stupid game no one cares about. Can we agree on that? Why would the network make us cover this game? I’d rather talk about something near and dear to my heart. Adrian Peterson: He’s not coming back because he hit his kid and then smoked weed on top of that. What do you guys think?

Emmitt: Marcel, I always been a big fan of Adrian P… Peters. He a good runnin’ back who run good. But he commit serious crimes that is serious and deserve to be in prism for a long time. Maybe while he in prism he going to get sexualed in the behind, then he gonna learned his lesson.

Millen: Emmitt, I can tell you for a fact that you are stereotyping. Prison isn’t like that. Trust me, I’ve been arrested on purpose so I could find out. I looked my cutest and even said, “Teehee, I dropped my soap” in the shower, but no one inserted their kielbasas into my backside. I was highly disappointed. There were plenty of 100-percent USDA Men in there too, so it was a crushing experience for me.

Reilly: Millen, no one wants to hear about your perverted ways. We’re talking about Adrian Peterson here. I think he should be released from prison. I drafted him to be my fantasy running back, but my team is 2-4 right now. I need a win, so Peterson should be able to hit all of the kids he wants.

Edwards: CAN’T HIT KIDS! SHOULDN’T HIT KIDS! NO ONE SHOULD HIT KIDS! NOT YOU! NOT YOU! NOT YOU! NOT ME! NO ONE! CAN’T DO IT! SHOULDN’T DO IT! YOU’LL GO TO JAIL IF YOU DO IT! YOU’LL GO TO PRISON IF YOU DO IT! YOU’LL GO TO PRISM IF YOU DO IT! DON’T HIT THEM WITH A SWITCH! DON’T HIT THEM WITH A BAT! DON’T HIT THEM WITH A TOASTER! DON’T HIT THEM WITH A CABLE BOX! DON’T HIT THEM WITH A LAPTOP! DON’T HIT THEM WITH A REMOTE CONTROL! DON’T HIT THEM WITH A SHOE! DON’T HIT THEM WITH A SOCK! DON’T HIT THEM WITH A BELT! DON’T HIT THEM WITH PANTS! DON’T HIT THEM WITH A HAT! DON’T HIT THEM WITH A COAT! DON’T HIT THEM WITH A SPADE! DON’T HIT THEM WITH A CLUB! DON’T HIT THEM WITH A DIAMOND! DON’T HIT THEM WITH A HEART! HERM JUST LISTED ALL OF THE CARD TYPES! WHY DID HERM LIST ALL OF THE CARD TYPES!? CAN’T HIT SOMEONE WITH A HEART! JUST NOT POSSIBLE! CAN’T DO IT! IMPOSSIBLE TO DO IT! ESPECIALLY IF YOU DON’T HAVE A HEART! AND IF YOU DON’T HAVE A HEART, YOU… you’re… uhh… umm…

Reilly: How do you hit someone with a heart? You’re an idiot as always, Herm!

Fouts: Here’s how you hit someone with a heart, Kevin. You take a knife. A knife is something that can be found in a kitchen, and it can also be found in a hunting store. It doesn’t matter where you find the knife, just make sure you secure one. Now, take the knife and start cutting on the left side of your chest. Make sure you don’t do it on the right side because your heart isn’t there. Your heart is located on the left side of your body, unless you’re from a mirror universe, and then your heart might be on the right side. I once met someone from a mirror universe, but I didn’t ask him where his heart was. Once you cut open your skin, grab your heart. It’s the thing that’s beating. Grab it, and then hit someone with it.

Tollefson: That’s a good idea, Danny boy. Some of the women I’ve kidnapped to cook and clean for me have been acting up lately. For instance, one of the things they made for me was undercooked. I need to hit them with something, and the heart sounds like a good option.

Reilly: GUYS WE’RE SUPPOSED TO BE TALKING ABOUT MY FANTASY TEAM! Ron, will you talk about my fantasy team with me? Ron, where did you go?

Charles Davis: No more Ron Zappolo, Kevin. It was actually me the entire time, Kevin.

Reilly: NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO NOT CHARLES DAVIS!!!!!!!!!!!!

Davis: I put on a Ron Zappolo disguise, Kevin. Did you know that there are occasions in which you wear disguises other than Halloween, Kevin? Mardi Gras, for instance, Kevin. You wear disguises there, Kevin. How about a masquerade party, Kevin? You have to wear a costume there, Kevin. What about when you rob a bank, Kevin? Bank robbers typically wear disguises, Kevin. How about you try, Kevin. Try naming an instance in which you wear a disguise, Kevin!

Reilly: Make it stop! Someone make it stop!!! AHHHHH!!! We’ll be back after this!

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Jadeveon Clowney has been targeting this game for his return. That’s no guarantee he’ll suit up, but the extra time off could allow him to play. If so, that’s horrible news for Ben Roethlisberger. The Steeler quarterback has dealt with poor protection and mistakes from his receiving corps this year, and now he’ll have to worry about Clowney in addition to J.J. Watt.

Roethlisberger has taken 11 sacks in the past three weeks, which does not bode well for this matchup. His chemistry issues with Markus Wheaton don’t either. Roethlisberger keeps trying to force the issue to Wheaton, who always seems to find a new, creative way to screw up. I’d say Pittsburgh should bench Wheaton, but the team doesn’t have anyone else to insert into the lineup. Lance Moore is the No. 3 wideout, for crying out loud. With Antonio Brown as the sole downfield weapon, the Steeler scoring attack figures to struggle once more.

Meanwhile, the Steelers have been doing a poor job of feeding the ball to Le’Veon Bell lately. Bell only rushed the ball 18 times against the Browns, and it’s not like he didn’t have success because he registered 82 yards on the ground. In the previous contest, Bell had just 15 carries. It makes no sense why Pittsburgh refuses to lean on its second-best offensive weapon. Bell will have a chance to gash Houston’s mediocre ground defense, but will he get much of an opportunity?

HOUSTON OFFENSE: The Texans, on the other hand, are smart enough to feed their main running back. Foster has carried the ball 43 times in the previous two weeks despite losing both contests, and he’s now averaging 4.8 yards per attempt on the year.

Foster has to be licking his chops in anticipation of this matchup. The Steelers are just 26th against the rush, surrendering 4.57 YPC They couldn’t even come close to containing the Browns (36 carries, 155 yards), as Cleveland was able to pound the ball and control possession throughout the afternoon.

Brian Hoyer was an efficient game-manager who hit several big plays throughout the contest. Ryan Fitzpatrick can function similarly as long as he’s not being asked to win the game. Besides, it’s not like Fitzpatrick has to deal with the Steel Curtain of old; this Pittsburgh defense is a leaky unit missing several starters. The pass rush has just three sacks during the previous three weeks, so Fitzpatrick won’t have to worry about being under siege at all.

RECAP: I really have no idea where to go with this game. The one thing I have is the potential to go against the public. Regular bettors are pounding the Texans, and it’s hard to see Vegas dropping three big Monday night losses in a row.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Vegas needs this game, as it stands to lose tons of money if the Texans cover. For instance, MGM reported that as of Sunday afternoon, they had taken nearly half a million in bets on the Texans, while only $3,000 on the Steelers. That’s insane. The sharps and the public are both pounding Houston. I’m sticking with the Steelers, but I just can’t bet on them even though the Clete Blakeman Rule is in effect.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Steelers.

The Texans are a massive public dog.

Percentage of money on Houston: 72% (60,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Texans are 37-23 ATS after two or more consecutive losses (8-6 ATS as favorites).

Steelers are 9-5 ATS at home on Monday Night Football the previous 14 instances.

Opening Line: Steelers -4.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: .

Week 7 NFL Pick: Steelers 27, Texans 21
Steelers -3 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 44.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Steelers 30, Texans 23

Week 7 NFL Picks – Early Games
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Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

NFL Picks - Nov. 20

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)