NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 5, 2013

NFL Picks (Preseason 2013): 10-6 (+$720)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2013): 4-11-1 (-$1,290)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2013): 6-10 (+$130)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2013): 9-6-1 (+$20)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2013): 11-4 (+$870)

NFL Picks (2013): 40-37-1 (+$450)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Oct. 7, 5:20 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 5 NFL Picks – Early Games

Carolina Panthers (1-2) at Arizona Cardinals (2-2)
Line: Panthers by 2.5. Total: 42.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Panthers -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 4): Cardinals -2.
Sunday, Oct. 6, 4:05 ET
Discuss Week 5 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Panthers.

If you haven’t made your Week 4 selection in the WalterFootball.com 2013 NFL Survivor Pool, make sure you do so. There are 1,117 players still remaining out of the original 2,580. Those who took the Chiefs, Packers, Seahawks and Colts are in the lead because of margin of victory. The 144 people who didn’t listen to my Survivor Picks Advice and chose a road team (Bengals) were knocked out.

To see a report of how many teams are being picked for survivor this week, click here.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: I don’t know why Cam Newton wasn’t trying to run around to advance the chains in the first two weeks of the season, but it cost his team a couple of potential victories. Newton finally went back to using his primary strength in Week 3, scrambling seven times for 45 yards and a score on the ground. He ran circles around the Giants and will need to do the same thing versus Arizona to help his team improve to .500.

The Cardinals have a stellar defense. Patrick Peterson will erase Steve Smith, meaning Newton will only have Ted Ginn and Brandon LaFell as targets outside of Greg Olsen. Newton will also have to deal with a decent amount of pressure. The Cardinals have just seven sacks on the year, but they’ll get a big boost with Daryl Washington coming back from suspension. Washington is great in all facets, particularly blitzing. Carolina’s offensive line isn’t very good, so Arizona should be able to win the battle in the trenches.

It’s also worth noting that Arizona is fourth versus the run. DeAngelo Williams isn’t normally much of a threat coming out of the backfield, but he has been somewhat effective this year. That figures to change this week.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Poor Carson Palmer. Already shielded poorly behind a struggling offensive line, Palmer will now have to operate without left tackle Levi Brown, who was traded away to Pittsburgh (go here to see my grades for the Cardinals and Steelers in the Levi Brown trade.) Granted, Brown didn’t exactly excel in pass protection, but he was at least starting over someone. And by that, I mean he was better than his backup. Now, someone even worse will have to protect Palmer’s blind side.

It’s safe to say Palmer will see heavy pressure in this contest. The Panthers have one of the top defensive lines in football; they sacked Eli Manning a ridiculous six times in just over a quarter back in Week 3. The Giants and Cardinals have similar blocking problems, so Carolina could match that figure this Sunday.

Having said that, there will be some instances in which Palmer has time in the pocket. At those moments, he’ll be able to connect with Larry Fitzgerald and his other receivers, who will get open against a poor secondary. Unfortunately, these occurrences will be far and few between, meaning Arizona will have difficulty sustaining drives.

RECAP: I would really like the Cardinals, who should be favored in this semi-even matchup (my calculated line is Arizona -2), if it weren’t for the Panthers coming off a week of rest. Road favorites off byes tend to cover the spread at a remarkable rate.

However, I don’t want to bet trends blindly. There’s a reason for this dynamic, and it’s because good teams can use extra preparation time effectively. But are the Panthers a good team? I’m not so sure. And has Newton been using the extra seven days to study film on the Cardinals? Again, I’m not so sure.

All in all, this is a non-bet for me. There are much better games on the board. If I had to choose, I’d say the Cardinals’ good home fortunes will continue.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Still torn on this game. I’ve thought about it, but I can’t decide where to go with this.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found

The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.

Everyone’s loving the Panthers.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 78% (28,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

Ron Rivera is 0-2 ATS off a bye.

Cardinals are 19-8 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 since 2007.

Opening Line: Panthers -2.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: .

Week 5 NFL Pick: Cardinals 16, Panthers 14
Cardinals +2.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 42.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Cardinals 22, Panthers 6

San Diego Chargers (2-2) at Oakland Raiders (1-3)
Line: Chargers by 6. Total: 46.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Chargers -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 4): Raiders -1.
Sunday, Oct. 6, 11:35 ET
Discuss Week 5 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Chargers.

If you didn’t catch it, Emmitt on the Brink is back! Season 6, Episode 4 has been posted – find out what happens when Emmitt takes a job as the valet at Downton Abbey.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: The latest I have on Terrelle Pryor right now is that Dennis Allen said he “feels good” about his starting quarterback returning to the lineup. Pryor nearly played last week, but was held out at the 11th hour. Concussions are pretty unpredictable, but there’s definitely a great chance that Pryor will return to the field after a one-game absence. This is absolutely crucial for Oakland because Matt Flynn is terrible.

Unfortunately for Pryor, things won’t be the same as when he left the lineup. Darren McFadden and Marcel Reece are both out. McFadden is the team’s top play-maker, but I’d argue that Reece’s injury is more significant because he does so many things for the Raiders. He’s a tremendous pass-protector, so he’ll be severely missed in that regard. Luckily for the Raiders, the first team they battle after losing Reece happens to be one that has accumulated only eight sacks on the season – and the Chargers won’t get many more now with Dwight Freeney out for the year.

San Diego’s defense struggles in all facets, ranking in the bottom 10 in terms of sacks and rush defense. Its worst attribute is pass defense, as the team is 30th in that category (8.5 YPA). The Raiders don’t have a particularly reliable group of wideouts, but Denarius Moore, Rod Streater and the emerging Mychal Rivera can get open against the Chargers’ pedestrian secondary and linebacking corps.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: At the beginning of the year, I predicted that the Raiders not only would go 0-16; but they would lose each game by double digits. Well, it appears as though they’re not nearly as bad as I thought they would be. I figured their defense would be atrocious, but the group has done some good things. For instance, Oakland is in the middle of the pack in terms of sacks (11), thanks to Lamarr Houston, who is an absolute stud.

The Raiders should be able to pressure Philip Rivers. The immobile quarterback is shielded by an offensive line that has some injury concerns. The entire left side of the front missed last week’s contest and is questionable for this matchup. Both players weren’t on the field for Wednesday’s practice.

Having said that, Rivers still performed well despite blocking issues versus Dallas. He has been reborn with the help of Mike McCoy and Ken Whisenhunt. It also helps that Antonio Gates is actually healthy for a change. Plus, Danny Woodhead is just the weapon out of the backfield that Rivers has yearned for ever since losing Darren Sproles to New Orleans.

RECAP: I can’t say I understand this spread. Assuming Pryor plays, I would’ve made this a pick ’em or maybe San Diego -1. The Chargers being favored by four is befuddling, and I’m even more puzzled as to why the public is pounding them. If Pryor plays, I like Oakland to cover and perhaps even win. I’m setting this at two units for now, but may add a unit as the week progresses. Of course, if Pryor sits out, I’ll declare this a non-bet and may even switch over to the other side. Stay tuned.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m bumping this up to three units. Pryor is playing, yet the spread has risen in San Diego’s favor. This line is out of control. My calculated number is Raiders -1, so we’re getting six points of value.

MORE FINAL THOUGHTS: This is a super-late game, so the public will pound the Chargers to double down on their losses. If you like San Diego, bet them now. If you want to pick the Raiders, wait until minutes before kickoff.

LINE MOVEMENT: As predicted, the line has risen. San Diego is now -6. I waited for this, so if you’re in the same boat, jump on Raiders +6.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

Everyone was impressed by the Chargers’ victory over Dallas.

Percentage of money on San Diego: 84% (25,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Raiders.

History: Raiders have won 4 of the last 6 meetings (Raiders 6-2 ATS last 8).

Opening Line: Chargers -5.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: .

Week 5 NFL Pick: Chargers 24, Raiders 23
Raiders +6 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Over 46 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Raiders 27, Chargers 17

Denver Broncos (4-0) at Dallas Cowboys (2-2)
Line: Broncos by 7. Total: 55.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Broncos -3.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 4): Bronocs -9.
Sunday, Oct. 6, 4:25 ET
Discuss Week 5 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Broncos.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for Sept. 30, 2013 is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is the Philadelphia Writers’ Conference.

DENVER OFFENSE: Can I just copy-paste what I wrote last week? Seriously. I mean, I do run this Web site and I have no boss… so, what the hell?

This segment is kind of useless. Anything written about the Broncos’ scoring attack will always sound something like this: Peyton Manning’s not the same quarterback he once was in terms of arm strength, but he’s as sharp as ever mentally… Manning has way too many talented weapons to work with… the Denver running game isn’t that good, but can produce because opposing defenses pay too much attention to Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, Eric Decker and Julius Thomas… Denver will score at least 35… the end.

It’s going to be another day at the office for the Broncos. Philip Rivers just went 35-of-42 for 401 yards, three touchdowns and an interception against Dallas, for crying out loud, so imagine what Manning is going to do. The Cowboys have glaring issues in their secondary – Morris Claiborne has been so bad that he’s been benched in favor of Orlando Scandrick – and their pass rush is suddenly a concern because George Selvie is likely to miss this game with a concussion. In fact, his status is extremely bleak because he can’t even talk right now. Let’s hope he gets healthy soon.

DALLAS OFFENSE: Tony Romo will have to match Manning point for point. This means that he can’t have any turnovers or take foolish sacks or waste timeouts. He needs to have a clean game, and the same goes for all of his teammates and coaches. Given that this is the Cowboys we’re talking about, I’m not exactly optimistic that they’ll be able to do all of that.

Romo has played very well this season, maintaining an 8-to-2 touchdown-to-turnover ratio. However, there are two problems Romo will have to overcome in order to defeat Denver in a shootout. The first is the lack of a running game. DeMarco Murray, who is currently healthy for a change, has been solid this season, averaging 4.9 yards per carry. Having said that, he has done all of his damage against the Giants, Rams and Chargers – three dreadful defenses. The Broncos happen to be No. 1 overall versus ground attacks, limiting all but one opponent this season to fewer than 59 rushing yards.

The second issue is Miles Austin-Jones’ absence. Injuries have sapped Austin-Jones of his talent, but he’s still way more reliable than Terrance Williams, who fumbled at the goal line last week. With Austin-Jones likely out again and Jason Witten running in slow motion, all the Broncos really have to worry about is Dez Bryant, who inexplicably doesn’t seem to be getting enough targets.

RECAP: This is a terrible spot for the Broncos. Teams coming off multiple blowout wins at home tend to struggle against the spread. I can give you several trends that favor Dallas.

So, I’m taking the… Broncos. Yup. As I stated last week, this Denver team needs to be treated like the 2007 Patriots. They have to be favored by 20 over most teams at home and 13ish on the road. Otherwise, Vegas will keep getting burned.

It’s a shame that this spread has shot up to -7.5. I loved it at -6.5, but I only somewhat like it at -7.5.

FINAL THOUGHTS: My thoughts haven’t changed. Still two units.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.

So much money on the unstoppable Broncos.

Percentage of money on Denver: 82% (73,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

Peyton Manning is 36-22 ATS as a road favorite since 2001.

Opening Line: Broncos -5.5.

Opening Total: 54.

Weather: .

Week 5 NFL Pick: Broncos 45, Cowboys 31
Broncos -7 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Over 55.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Broncos 51, Cowboys 48

Houston Texans (2-2) at San Francisco 49ers (2-2)
Line: 49ers by 5. Total: 43.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: 49ers -6.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 4): 49ers -11.
Sunday, Oct. 6, 8:30 ET
Discuss Week 5 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: 49ers.

I used to love making fun of GameCenter comments. The people on there were such idiots. There were even perverts like Aaron3619, who always asked chicks for their pictures so that he could carry them around. I actually met my ex-girlfriend, Awesome Girl Who Loves Football, this way. We exchanged e-mails about Aaron3619 and then hit it off, ultimately meeting in July 2012.

I planned to mess with Aaron3619 as a fake user named TexasGirl1234, but NFL.com shut down its GameCenter and implemented Facebook comments instead. This enraged me, so get revenge, I made a fake Facebook account named Mario Migelini to troll people. Other readers followed suit and made fake accounts of their own.

I’ve added a second fake account this year – Vivian Williamson. This is based off of Miss Vivian, a security guard at the Philadelphia International Airport, whom I’ve written about in Jerks of the Week (click the link to read about her).

Go here to see all of the NFL.com Troll Posts from myself and other trollers.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: Texans’ fans are sure demanding, given that they didn’t have a team for a while when the Oilers left for Tennessee. After the Texans were born, they had to deal with David Carr and Dom Capers’ ineptitude. So, you’d think they’d be grateful for a competitive football team. Instead, the fans are booing crazily and burning Matt Schaub’s jersey in the parking lot.

It’s not Schaub’s fault that he’s an average quarterback. That’s all he is. Granted, the pick-six he tossed against the Seahawks was a completely moronic maneuver, but he’s done some decent things this season. He has led a pair of comeback victories against San Diego and Tennessee – two solid teams that have a combined record of 5-3.

Unfortunately for Schaub, he has a tough task ahead of him in this contest. The 49ers have a prolific defense that will be getting Patrick Willis back from injury this week. Schaub has pick-sixes in three consecutive contests, so it could easily be four once San Francisco is done with him. The 49ers excel at stopping the run – they’re seventh against it (3.5 YPC) – so without Arian Foster and Ben Tate running wildly, Schaub won’t be able to perform his patented play-action bootlegs very effectively.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The Texans also have a fierce defense ranked in the top 10 against both the run and the pass and also in terms of getting to the quarterback. They were able to smother Seattle’s offense for three quarters last week, putting immense pressure on Russell Wilson. It wasn’t until the fourth quarter until the Seahawks finally got moving.

Could Houston duplicate what it just did to Seattle in this contest? I don’t find that likely. Unlike the Seahawks, who are missing multiple starters on the offensive line, the 49ers’ front is completely intact. They do a good job of shielding Colin Kaepernick for the most part, so aside from the occasional J.J. Watt pressure, Kaepernick should have a clean pocket.

I also expect Kaepernick to continue to improve. He has struggled as of late, but having Vernon Davis back will help. Davis missed the Indianapolis contest and was pretty limited versus St. Louis, but he’s had 10 days to heal. The Texans will have to worry about both Davis and Anquan Boldin, all while paying attention to Kaepernick. Wilson ran all over Houston, so this defense could have problems with another mobile quarterback.

RECAP: The 49ers are my favorite pick of the week. I love them for so many reasons. Here’s why:

1. ESPN has brainwashed the public into thinking the 49ers aren’t that good based off the Indianapolis loss. The 49ers mailed that game in for various reasons – coming off an emotional loss, they had a divisional battle in four days, plus they were pretty banged up, so they didn’t pay much attention to a non-conference foe – so I would ignore that contest. San Francisco is very easily still a top-five team, so this spread is way off. I think the 49ers should be favored by 11. Remember, they were -10 over the Colts, who are just as good – if not better – than the Texans.

2. The 49ers will be favored by double digits next week over the Cardinals, so they’ll definitely be focused for this game. The Texans, meanwhile, will be reeling after the emotional defeat to Seattle.

3. Teams coming off Thursday games tend to cover at a high rate, especially if they play at home. Without having to travel, this 10-day lay-off acts as a bye. The 49ers are a good team, so they definitely used the extra time to prepare for this contest.

4. I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention Circadian rhythms! The 49ers are 33-16 against the spread as favorites in night games since 1989. That’s no coincidence.

5. This is obviously a big game for Houston. That’s not a good thing. The Texans always seem to choke when battling an upper-echelon opponent. I don’t see why that would change this week.

I’m going with five units for each of those five reasons. I’ll like the 49ers for that much as long as they stay under -7.5.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Looks like the 49ers stayed under 7.5! It’s now -6, so I’m still taking them for five units.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 57% (37,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

Texans are 34-16 ATS after two or more consecutive losses (8-4 ATS as favorites).

49ers are 10-5 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5+ under Jim Harbaugh.

49ers are 33-16 ATS as favorites in night games since 1989.

Opening Line: 49ers -6.5.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: .

Week 5 NFL Pick: 49ers 34, Texans 17
49ers -5 (5 Units) — Correct; +$500
Over 43 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
49ers 34, Texans 3

New York Jets (2-2) at Atlanta Falcons (1-3)
Line: Falcons by 9.5. Total: 44.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Falcons -7.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 4): Falcons -9.
Monday, Oct. 7, 8:30 ET
Discuss Week 5 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Falcons.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have Mike Tirico and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, annoying guys like Charles Davis and senile guys like Bob Greise. Here’s what it would sound like if those six clowns (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Atlanta, home of the Falcons. Tonight, we get to watch the Falcons and Jets play each other in front of a sleepy crowd that doesn’t seem to care one way or the other. Emmitt, Geno Smith is the quarterback of Atlanta. Seeing as how you two are related, do you have any insight on the Jets to share with us before I call my bookie?

Emmitt: Mario, I am very surprise to hear you say these. I do not have any inside on the Jet because I do not even know that Geno and I have relationed. I will talk to him after the games and determine that maybe we twin cousin or brother in laws.

Reilly: Twin cousins? What’s that? Ugh, what do you want, Charles Davis?

Davis: Actually, Mike, there are lots of players in the NFL with the last name of Smith. The genealogy of the last name Smith derives from the Anglo-Saxon “smitan,” to smite or strike. Smith was an occupational name for a man or woman who works with metal (smith or blacksmith). Smith is a very popular name, which would explain why there are so many Smiths in the NFL. Did you know that there have been 18 Smiths whose first names began with the letter “A” who have graced the field this century? Let’s begin with Aaron Smith, a great defensive lineman for the Steelers. How about Adam Smith, a practice-squad guard? What about Akili Smith, former quarterback of the Bengals? Let’s not forget Aldon Smith, who’s in rehab right now. Then there are two Alex Smiths, the quarterback and the tight end. What about Alfonso Smith – with an “F” – who plays running back for the Cardinals? There’s also an Alphonso Smith – with a “PH” – who used to be a defensive back. How about Alvin Smith of the Browns? Let’s not forget…

Griese: I once played with a guy named Lamar Smith. Or maybe that was after… or before…

Reilly: Welcome to the 21st century, idiot! But we’re talking about Smiths whose first names begin with “A.” Wait, why are we talking about this anyway?

Edwards: WE’RE TALKING ABOUT SMITH! GENO SMITH! QUARTERBACK FOR THE JETS! THROWS FOOTBALL FOR THE JETS! SIGNAL-CALLER FOR THE JETS! GENO SMITH! FIRST NAME GENO! LAST NAME SMITH! FIRST NAME SMITH! I MEAN FIRST NAME GENO! LAST NAME GENO! I MEAN LAST NAME SMITH! GENO SMITH! BUT FIRST NAME BEGINS WITH A “G” NOT AN “A”! NOT A “B” EITHER! NOT A “C” OR “D” TOO! NOPE, NOT AN “E”! DEFINITELY NOT AN “E” BUT THERE’S AN “E” IN THE NAME! FOUND AN “E” IN THE NAME! NOT AN “F”! NOT A “G”! DON’T BEGIN WITH AN “H” EITHER! IT… UHH… WAIT, IT BEGINS WITH A “G”! GENO BEGINS WITH A “G”! THEN THERE’S AN “E”! THEN… uhh… umm…

Reilly: F*** you, Herm. Yes, Geno Smith. We were discussing Geno Smith.

Millen: I have to tell you, Kevin, I’ve never had more fun covering a Jets’ game in my life.

Reilly: Do I even want to ask?

Millen: Geno starting means Mark Sanchez doesn’t have to study film as much during the week. This means he gets to spend more time with me and my kielbasas in my hotel room. I have to tell you, Kevin, Mark Sanchez may not have emerged as the great quarterback we expected him to be when we saw him as a young stallion, but he’s learned a lot from his playing days, including the Butt Fumble on that fateful Thanksgiving. We performed many a Butt Fumble in the hotel room last night.

Reilly: You’re disgusting, Millen.

Tollefson: Now, now, Kevin, Matt might be on to something here. Sure, us normal people prefer the company of many women over one man, but perhaps we can incorporate this butt-fumbling business into our own sexual affairs. Maybe when I kidnap two women to cook and clean for me naked, I can have the cleaning woman orchestrate a Butt Fumble into the woman who is cooking. But then the house could burn down… hmm…

Emmitt: Maybe the woman who cook can fumble the butt into the woman who clean.

Tollefson: You’re a genius, Emmitt! Now, time to kidnap two women!

Reilly: Way to incriminate yourself on the air, moron. We’ll be back after a word from our local sponsors!

NEW YORK OFFENSE: It’s unbelievable how many injuries the Falcons have on the defensive side of the ball. Asante Samuel has been banged up. Kroy Biermann’s out for the year. Akeem Dent and Paul Worrilow both exited the game last week. It’s amazing Atlanta can even field a team right now.

Having said that, I have no clue how the Jets are going to move the chains in this contest. Geno Smith has been terrible on the road thus far, and now he has to go to a loud(?) Georgia Dome to play a desperate team without his top two receivers. Santonio Holmes is out, while Stephen Hill is doubtful, so that means Smith will have to rely on the likes of Jeremy Kerley, Clyde Gates and Ryan Spadola.

The Jets will obviously attempt to establish the run, but the Falcons will be focusing in on Bilal Powell. Besides, while Atlanta is atrocious versus the pass, the team is an OK 20th against the run (4.22 YPC).

ATLANTA OFFENSE: The Falcons’ injuries extend to the offensive side of the ball. Steven Jackson is likely out again, while left tackle Sam Baker will be a huge question mark. Roddy White has been playing, but he hasn’t been 100 percent. The Jets have only one receiver to worry about, so they’ll put Antonio Cromartie on Julio Jones and pressure Matt Ryan behind his shaky offensive line. The Jets are proficient at getting to the quarterback; they’re tied for third in sacks (14).

Having said that, the Falcons will still be successful at moving the chains because Ryan, Jones and Tony Gonzalez are that good. Besides, the Jets have some holes in their defense. For instance, the Cromartie strategy won’t work as well as the Patriots’ plan to cover Jones with Aqib Talib because Cromartie has been sub par this year. The safety play has been even worse, as have the inside linebackers.

The Dolphins and Patriots have defenses comparable to the Jets. The Falcons sustained consistent drives against those teams (in particular versus Miami on the road), so I think Atlanta will score enough points to give itself a chance to cover the spread.

RECAP: I liked the Falcons a lot when they opened up at -7.5. I’m not crazy about them at -9.5. I still think they’re the right side – they are desperate for a win, while the Jets seem primed to get blown out – but there’s no line value. I’ll take Atlanta for a unit.

SURVIVOR PICK: Go here for my Survivor Pick Advice later tonight for some analysis. I’m taking Atlanta this week.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There are -9.5s available at LVH and BetUS, so go with that if you like Atlanta. Bovada has it at +10.5, so that should be your book for the Jets. I’m still going with the Falcons for one unit. This number is too high for my liking, but Atlanta should be able to win by double digits.

The Psychology. Edge: Falcons.

The Falcons are in a must-win situation.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.

This spread has been steamed up from -7.5 to -9.5/-10.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 78% (90,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Falcons.

Matt Ryan is 25-15 ATS at home.

Mike Smith is 18-8 ATS after a loss.

Mike Smith is 7-1 ATS after losing as a favorite.

Opening Line: Falcons -7.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 5 NFL Pick: Falcons 27, Jets 13
Falcons -9.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Under 44 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Survivor Pick (4-0)
Jets 30, Falcons 28

Week 5 NFL Picks – Early Games
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Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser: Ravens +8.5, Cardinals +8 (2 units) — Correct; +$200

Moneyline Underdog: Raiders +180 (0.5 Units) — Correct; +$90

NFL Picks - Dec. 11

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)