NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 2, 2012

NFL Picks (Preseason 2012): 6-9-1 (-$1,440)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2012): 3-13 (-$2,250)

NFL Picks (2012): 9-22-1 (-$3,690)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Sept. 17, 6:15 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 2 NFL Picks – Early Games

Dallas Cowboys (1-0) at Seattle Seahawks (0-1)
Line: Cowboys by 3. Total: 42.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 1): Cowboys -1.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 1): Cowboys -3.
Sunday, Sept. 16, 4:05 ET
Discuss Week 2 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Cowboys.

WalterFootball.com Contest Updates:

Survivor: Get your pick in for the WalterFootball.com 2011 NFL Survivor Pool. There were nearly a number of lost entries because of the Eagles nearly losing to the Browns. About 150 people (out of the 2,637 who started) lost because of the Saints, Seahawks, Panthers and Giants.

Fantasy: I think we’ll be running FanDuel contests through the end of October (still have to check). If so, it’s free entry and there are weekly cash prizes. Go to the Fantasy Football Contest page for more details.

DALLAS OFFENSE: Tony Romo had a very impressive debut, torching the Giants mercilessly at the Meadowlands. He’ll have a much tougher test in this contest. New York was completely banged up, as it was forced to play its fifth-string cornerback. Seattle, on the other hand, is completely healthy and owns one of the top defensive backfields in the NFL.

That’s not all the Seahawks boast. They have a pretty fierce pass rush, led by Chris Clemons. I like his chances against Tyron Smith, who was pretty mediocre (even if you exclude all four penalties) in the opener. Meanwhile, the interior of the offensive line will have a difficult time blocking Brandon Mebane and Jason Jones.

The Cowboys also won’t have as much luck establishing the run, as the Seahawks consistently field one of the top ground defenses in all of football. Led by stud left end Red Bryant, Seattle limited the Cardinals to just 2.3 yards per carry last week.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: While the Seahawks’ defense held up its end of the bargain at Arizona, the offense sputtered. Russell Wilson wasn’t completely at fault, but the coaching staff forced him into a conservative game plan. The receivers, meanwhile, had trouble getting separation.

The latter will undoubtedly continue because the Cowboys now field what appears to be one of the league’s top cornerback tandems in Brandon Carr and Morris Claiborne. The good news for Wilson though is that Dallas’ safety play is a huge concern. Barry Church was simply pedestrian in the opener, while Gerald Sensabaugh appears as though he’ll be out with a concussion.

Unfortunately for Wilson, he’ll be under heavy siege. DeMarcus Ware, Anthony Spencer and Jason Hatcher all applied heavy pressure in the opener. They’ll have no issues getting Wilson, who isn’t very well protected. The right side of his offensive line is an abomination. They won’t be opening up any holes for Marshawn Lynch either; he’ll have more success than Ahmad Bradshaw, but that’s not saying much.

RECAP: This is going to be a tough, physical game. I disagree with the majority of the public that is betting the Cowboys like there’s no tomorrow. The Seahawks have a great defense and are usually dominant at home. In fact, that’s one of the reasons I’m making a small wager on them. The other, as noted below, is that teams usually struggle after slaying the defending Super Bowl champs.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.

People love the Cowboys after that Wednesday night performance.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 84% (57,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

KO the Champ: Teams coming off a win vs. the Super Bowl champion are 16-27 ATS the following week.

Tony Romo is 11-5 ATS as a starter in September.

Seahawks are 16-4 ATS in September home games since 2000.

Opening Line: Cowboys -3.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: .

Week 2 NFL Pick: Seahawks 20, Cowboys 17
Seahawks +3 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Under 42.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Seahawks 27, Cowboys 7

Washington Redskins (1-0) at St. Louis Rams (0-1)
Line: Redskins by 3.5. Total: 42.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 1): Rams -1.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 1): Redskins -3.
Sunday, Sept. 16, 4:05 ET
Discuss Week 2 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Redskins.

If you didn’t catch it, Emmitt on the Brink is back! Season 5, Episode 2 has been posted – The Saints have once again gotten into trouble. Roger Goodell finds the man whom he thinks can put an end to Bountygate II.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: So, Robert Griffin is pretty awesome. All he did in his NFL debut was go 19-of-26 for 320 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions in the Superdome, which is a very difficult place to play. If that didn’t rattle him, the Edward Jones Dome won’t be much of a bother. He’ll be able to hear a pin drop by comparison.

The Rams picked off Matthew Stafford three times last week, but that was because Jeff Fisher was so familiar with disciple Jim Schwartz’s quarterback. He obviously has far less knowledge of Griffin. The No. 2 pick in the 2012 NFL Draft will have a tougher challenge against a St. Louis stop unit with some talent, but it’s nothing that he can’t handle. It’s not like he’s going to battle the 49ers, or anything.

Griffin will once again be able to hand the ball off and watch Alfred Morris pick up big chunks of yardage on the ground. Kevin Smith ran pretty well versus St. Louis last week, thanks in part to defensive tackle Michael Brockers’ absence. Brockers is currently projected to be questionable, but even if he plays, he may not be 100 percent.

ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: Poor Sam Bradford. He just can’t catch a break. He developed David Carr Syndrome last year because his offensive line was anemic. The Rams added a dependable center in Scott Wells via free agency, but Wells just landed on injured reserve with a fractured foot. And if that’s not bad enough, left tackle Rodger Saffold is out indefinitely with a neck injury.

Bradford, who mostly settled for short junk in the opener, will have to continue to utilize that strategy. It’s not like he has a choice anyway. Trying to locate his mediocre receivers downfield would be disastrous with Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan breathing down his neck.

The Rams will have to establish Steven Jackson on the ground to have any hope of moving the chains consistently. It’s tough to envision that, however, given the injuries to the offensive front. Jackson couldn’t even run against the Lions, who struggled to defend ground attacks last year.

RECAP: This line seems low, but it’s not based on last week. Detroit was -8.5 or so versus the Rams. This spread would be -9 if it were in Washington (shift three points to neutral, then three more to the other location), so Vegas is saying that the Lions and Redskins are about equal. I can buy that.

Nevertheless, I’m taking Washington for a small wager.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

All aboard the Robert Griffin bandwagon!

Percentage of money on Washington: 80% (46,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Rams.

Redskins are 8-22 ATS after a road win since 2000.

Opening Line: Redskins -3.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Dome.

Week 2 NFL Pick: Redskins 31, Rams 17
Redskins -3.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Over 42.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Rams 31, Redskins 28

New York Jets (1-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (0-1)
Line: Steelers by 4.5. Total: 43.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 1): Steelers -7.5.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 1): Steelers -4.
Sunday, Sept. 16, 4:25 ET
Discuss Week 2 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Steelers.

Another friendly reminder that Jerks of the Week for Sept. 10, 2012 is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks are Cakes & Art, The Drowned Man and The Matchmaking Process.

If you’ve been following my 2012 Fantasy Football Rankings this summer and you’re wondering which players to start, I’ve got you covered. You can check out my Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em page (will be posted tonight) as well as my Weekly Fantasy Football Rankings.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: I told you guys that Mark Sanchez was awesome. Everyone wanted Tim Tebow to start, but oh no, I was on the QB Nacho bandwagon the entire time.

OK, maybe not. Sanchez was really impressive against the Bills, but his issue has always been consistency. Can he perform close to the same level against the Steelers? You better believe that Pittsburgh’s defense will actually show up, unlike Buffalo’s overpriced front line. James Harrison, who was out at Denver, could be back for this contest. He worked out on Monday. His return would be huge; the Steelers could barely put any pressure on Peyton Manning because he released the ball so quickly, but Sanchez doesn’t exactly do that.

Sanchez won’t have the luxury of having Shonn Greene pick up decent chunks of yardage in this contest. He nearly hit the century mark against the Bills, but certainly won’t have nearly as much running room against the Steelers, who are perennially among the league leaders in rush defense.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Poor Ben Roethlisberger didn’t have a chance against the Broncos once two of his linemen went down. He did a terrific job of converting third downs at Denver until right guard Ramon Foster and right tackle Marcus Gilbert went down with injuries. Their replacements were awful, but that could be irrelevant because they’re both expected to play Sunday. Big Ben has to be thrilled.

It’s not all good news for Roethlisberger, however. Darrelle Revis suffered a concussion against the Bills, but he’s also projected to be in the lineup. He’ll shadow Mike Wallace, so Big Ben will have to settle for shorter stuff to Antonio Brown, Emmanuel Sanders and his various tight ends.

I’d like to see the Steelers utilize Jonathan Dwyer more often. He is far and away the most talented healthy running back on the roster. C.J. Spiller just gashed the Jets for 169 yards, so Dwyer could approach 100 himself if given the opportunity. The Jets are pretty weak up the middle. Both Bart Scott and Yeremiah Bell looked done in the opener.

RECAP: This game is too close to call, so I’m not betting it. I’d give an edge to the Steelers because Mike Tomlin is 15-9 against the spread following a loss. Plus, the Jets are a publicly backed underdog because of Week 1 overreaction. I wish this spread were lower though because it seems to be in the right place.

UNIT CHANGE: I’m adding a unit on the Steelers. There’s just too much line value at -4.5; the spread was -7 prior to the Jets’ victory over Buffalo.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 59% (57,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

Mike Tomlin is 15-9 ATS after a loss.

Opening Line: Steelers -6.5.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: .

Week 2 NFL Pick: Steelers 26, Jets 17
Steelers -4.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Over 43.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Steelers 27, Jets 10

Tennessee Titans (0-1) at San Diego Chargers (1-0)
Line: Chargers by 6.5. Total: 43.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 1): Chargers -5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 1): Chargers -6.5.
Sunday, Sept. 16, 4:25 ET
Discuss Week 2 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Chargers.

It’s time for some Migelini Madness! As I wrote last week, NFL.com sucks. They no longer have their regular GameCenter chat format; they installed a Facebook chat app instead, which really blows. This means that we won’t be hearing from our favorite idiots anymore. No more pervy Aaron3619. No more stupid Migelini. No more childish Taton. No more insane Farim.

Well, I’m taking a stand against this via two methods. First, I have hundreds of unused GameCenter comments saved up, so I have enough to survive for a few more years. Second, I plan on re-creating our favorite GameCenter characters and having them troll the Facebook posters in the app. I made a Migelini account and my girlfriend, who was once harassed by Aaron3619, will be the new Aaron. Feel free to re-create other ones!

Here are some of the people I’ve trolled as Mario Migelini:

It’s reassuring to know that they are sexist pervs on Facebook in addition to GameCenter.

Oh yeah. I’m a Tebow homer in both real life and Facebook trolling.

As you’ll see, this will lead to some confusion…

There we go. People are finally responding to my intentional idocy. I also find it amusing that Joshua Prokop really thinks I’m a “managor” at Best Buy. Wouldn’t it be funny if all of these people stop going to Best Buy because of me? Being the sole reason for Best Buy going out of business would be pretty amazing.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: I was convinced there was something wrong with Philip Rivers going into the Monday night contest, and I still am. His arm strength just doesn’t seem to be quite there anymore. He did a great job of converting third downs in tough spots, but he doesn’t look like the elite quarterback he once was. It’s not helping that he seems to lack chemistry with his receivers, particularly Robert Meachem, but that should improve as the season moves along.

A huge positive to come out of the victory over Oakland was left tackle Michael Harris’ performance. The 2012 undrafted free agent, starting in place of the injured Marcus McNeill, was phenomenal against right end Matt Shaughnessy. However, he’ll have a much tougher challenge against Kamerion Wimbley, who gave Nate Solder some problems last week.

Rivers should have a decent outing regardless, though his offense still won’t be at full force because Ryan Mathews is unlikely to play. Ronnie Brown has no burst whatsoever, so don’t count on him doing much, even against a defense that just surrendered 125 rushing yards to Stevan Ridley.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: The biggest surprise in the San Diego-Oakland tilt was the performance of the visitor’s defense. The Chargers were swarming, suffocating Carson Palmer and stuffing Darren McFadden. Rookies Melvin Ingram and Kendall Reyes were monsters.

If that wasn’t a fluke, the Chargers’ front seven will have a huge mismatch in the trenches because Tennessee’s offensive line sucks. The interior is particularly anemic, as neither Leroy Harris nor fossilized Steve Hutchinson could block very well in the opener. As a consequence, Chris Johnson was really tentative, rushing for just four yards on 11 carries.

I don’t have much faith in CJ2K putting forth a good performance, but at least the Chargers won’t be able to stack the box like they did against the Raiders on Monday night. They had no respect for Carson Palmer’s arm strength. They will have to honor Jake Locker’s. Kenny Britt will be back, so that’ll make Tennessee’s aerial attack more potent.

RECAP: The Chargers are better defensively, but I still don’t trust them early in the season. They could have easily lost at Oakland if long-snapper Jon Condo hadn’t gotten hurt. I’m not a fan of the Titans either, but they should be able to play better this week.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.

No surprise that everyone is betting on the Chargers.

Percentage of money on San Diego: 75% (33,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Titans.

Chargers are 15-23 ATS in Weeks 1-8 since 2007.

Opening Line: Chargers -7.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: .

Week 2 NFL Pick: Chargers 22, Titans 19
Titans +6.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 43.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Chargers 38, Titans 10

Detroit Lions (1-0) at San Francisco 49ers (1-0)
Line: 49ers by 6.5. Total: 46.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 1): 49ers -3.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 1): 49ers -4.
Sunday, Sept. 16, 8:20 ET
Discuss Week 2 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: 49ers.

My girlfriend, Awesome Girl Who Loves Football, hasn’t made an Aaron account yet, but she sent me a conversation she had back in February with a GameCenter creeper named Jonathan Singleton. Here it is:

Jonathan Singleton: Do I know you?

Awesome Girl Who Loves Football: Hahaha no. You told me on nfl.com to add you.

Jonathan Singleton: Ok.

Jonathan Singleton: Who r u dateing?

Awesome Girl Who Loves Football: No one haha.

Jonathan Singleton: Look I don’t wont to sound creepy but can we date if you are single.

Jonathan Singleton: Look i don’t wont to sound creepy but can we date on Facebook if you are single.

Awesome Girl Who Loves Football: Date on Facebook? What do you mean? I don’t know you…

Jonathan Singleton: OK can I say I date you on Facebook cause we can’t date so I didn’t ask.

Jonathan Singleton: OK can I say I date you on Facebook cause we can’t date in real life so I didn’t ask.

Awesome Girl Who Loves Football: Uhh… I don’t know you.

Jonathan Singleton: Please.

Jonathan Singleton: Please!!!

Jonathan Singleton was found later, hanged in his room, because Awesome Girl Who Loves Football didn’t want to date him on Facebook – even though no one in the history of mankind has ever done that.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Alex Smith was unstoppable at Lambeau. He threw just six incompletions, picking apart Green Bay’s offense with ease. While he deserves tons of credit, the Packers have to shoulder an equal amount of blame for their ridiculous number of blown coverages. Smith won’t be as successful against defenses that actually cover his receivers, but the same can be said for any quarterback.

The problem for Detroit though is that its already-pedestrian secondary is banged up. Safety Louis Delmas and cornerback Chris Houston may not play, so Smith and his receivers could have another very easy matchup.

The 49ers ran the ball really well against the Packers and should enjoy similar success versus Detroit. The Lions bottled up Steven Jackson in Week 1, but they didn’t have to respect the pass as much because Sam Bradford stinks. I was way wrong about this, but Smith is much better under Jim Harbaugh’s tutelage. San Francisco should be able to move the football pretty efficiently.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The 49ers dominated the line of scrimmage at Lambeau. Aaron Rodgers was constantly under siege, which is why Green Bay’s starting offense was limited to just two touchdowns. Matthew Stafford figures to encounter similar problems Sunday night.

As everyone knows, the Lions’ offensive line is pretty questionable. The group has a really tough matchup against San Francisco’s stout front seven, so Ser Stafford will have to get rid of the ball quickly to his receivers. Fortunately for him, he has an array of talented targets at his disposal, though Rodgers could have said the same thing.

Like the Packers, Detroit doesn’t have much of a ground attack, so the 49ers should be able to limit the opposing offense for the second consecutive week.

RECAP: The 49ers played with a chip on their shoulder last week. You could see it on the field, and you could hear it when the players were interviewed after the game. They really wanted to prove that they could beat an elite team like the Packers on the road.

It’s Detroit’s turn. The Lions looked past the Rams last week because they were completely focused on a revenge matchup against the 49ers. They haven’t forgotten the confrontation between Harbaugh and Jim Schwartz. This is their chance to showcase themselves.

Another reason I like the Lions to cover is because of this overreaction spread. As forum member mdb17 wrote, “When Cantor Gaming released point spreads for every game from Week 1 through Week 16 back in early May, they posted San Francisco -3.5 for that matchup. Did what happened in Week 1 really warrant a 3-point line movement? That�s a pretty significant shift considering the revenge factor is in play here for Detroit.”

Indeed. The Week 1 overreaction gives us great value with the visitor.

UNIT CHANGE: Detroit’s entire secondary is out (Chris Houston, Louis Delmas, Dwight Bentley). Starting defensive tackle Corey Williams is doubtful. I’m moving this down to one unit because the Lions are so banged up.

PICK CHANGE: I’m changing my pick. The Detroit injuries are just too much, plus there’s the whole NPR trend. I’ll discuss that next week.

The Psychology. Edge: Lions.

Last week was San Francisco’s statement game. This will be Detroit’s. The Lions want to advenge last year’s loss and ensuing coaching fight.

The Vegas. Edge: Lions.

Who wouldn’t want to bet on the team that blew out the Packers in Lambeau?

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 79% (48,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: 49ers -6.5.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: .

Week 2 NFL Pick: 49ers 27, Lions 17
49ers -6.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 46 (0 Units) — Push; $0
49ers 27, Lions 19

Denver Broncos (1-0) at Atlanta Falcons (1-0)
Line: Falcons by 3. Total: 50.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 1): Falcons -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 1): Falcons -3.
Monday, Sept. 17, 8:30 ET
Discuss Week 2 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: None.

This week on Monday Night Football, we’re going to have Mike Tirico and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt and Matt Millen, annoying guys like Charles Davis and senile guys like Bob Greise. Here’s what it would sound like if those five clowns were calling this game:

Kevin Reilly: Welcome to Atlanta, an absolutely terrible place where people care more about college sports than professional teams. Seriously, how stupid is this city, guys? They’d rather root on kids than grown men! No one cares about college sports in the greatest city that ever was or ever will be, Philadelphia.

Emmitt: Kenny, as the old sayin’ go, it different folk for different stroke. Some people like watchin’ grown men play footballs, while some people like watchin’ grown men play football as well too.

Reilly: You just said the same thing twice, Emmitt.

Emmitt: You’ll have to excuse myselves. When you say the word kid and footballs in the same paragraph, I got reminded of the awful happenin’ at the University of Pennsylvania where Joe Pat… uhhh… Patano got under the rest for havin’ sexuals with little kids.

Reilly: Ugh, Emmitt, did you really have to bring that up with Matt Mill…

Millen: WHAT DID YOU SAY, EMMITT!? How dare you besmirch the good name of Joe Paterno? People like you make me sick. There’s no proof of anything! None! Show me one piece of clear evidence that Jerry Sandusky raped kids. You can’t! No one can! Ugh, I had a whole kielbasa date planned with Michael Turner, who’s a 100-percent USDA Man, but now I’m going to have to cancel on him because I’m so disgusted by your ignorance.

Emmitt: Mike, I am sorry you so disgusting, but if you read the Freed Report, you realize Patano rape kid while takin’ a bubble bath in the shower.

Tollefson: Wait, did you just say you read the Freeh Report, Emmitt?

Emmitt: In a manners of speaking, yes. Somebody got me the audio tape as a Christmas present on my birthday.

Tollefson: That makes sense. I love listening to audio tapes while having sex with females. Many guys don’t listen to music or books while doing this, but I say, why the hell not? It’s not like women have anything interesting to say anyway, unless they’re telling you what’s for dinner.

Millen: That’s it! I can’t take this anymore. I’m out. I can’t listen to people who hate Paterno. I’ll see you guys in Seattle next week, where I have a kielbasa party scheduled on Saturday night.

Reilly: That’s disgusting. Guys, can we talk about football, please? Bob, what do you think about Atlanta’s chances in this game?

Griese: These are… uhh… the Atlanta Braves?

Reilly: Charles Davis, what do you think about Atlanta’s chances in this game?

Davis: You have Matt Ryan, a fifth-year quarterback coming into this own. You have Michael Turner, who always has a nose for the end zone. You have Julio Jones. Many people said the Falcons were crazy for trading all of their picks for him. Well, they’re not so crazy now. You have Roddy White, who is always reliable. You have Tony Gonzalez. All he does? Catch touchdowns. You have Harry Douglas, a decent slot receiver. You have John Abraham – still a force on the defensive line. You have…

Reilly: Shut up! You’re just listing the players on the team and you’re not giving any opinion. You’re almost as bad as Herm, so shut the f*** up! We’ll be back after a word from our local sponsors!

DENVER OFFENSE: I’d start with the Falcons’ scoring attack after Charles Davis’ insightful breakdown, but the main storyline in this game is Peyton Manning. He looked mediocre in his first three drives Sunday night, but was unstoppable after that when the Broncos went into their no-huddle. We can obviously expect much more of that in this contest, as Manning figures to have a field day against an Atlanta defense that just lost cornerback Brent Grimes for the season.

Manning released the ball as quickly as ever against the Steelers, so the Falcons will have to pressure him instantly if they want a chance of stopping the future Hall-of-Famer and his impressive arsenal of weapons. I don’t think they’ll be able to do that since John Abraham seldom shows up in big games, while Kroy Biermann is just a middling talent.

The Broncos should also be able to run the ball when they need to. Willis McGahee had a tough matchup versus Pittsburgh last week, but he has to be salivating at the prospect of battling the Falcons, whose defensive tackles (Peria Jerry, Jonathan Babineaux) struggle in rush support.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: While the Falcons will have problems getting to Peyton Manning, Denver’s duo of Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil figure to apply heavy pressure on Matt Ryan. Ryan was clean last week, but only because the Chiefs were missing Tamba Hali. Left tackle Sam Baker will have a much tougher time Monday night.

With that being said, Atlanta will still generate a high point total. Champ Bailey will take away one of his stud receivers, but I don’t trust the rest of the secondary to eliminate the other wideout. The safeties are pretty pedestrian, while starting cornerback Tracy Porter can be hit-or-miss. And there’s always Tony Gonzalez, who seems to be good for a touchdown every game.

Don’t count on the Falcons running the ball, however. The matchup appears nice with Ty Warren gone for the season, but Turner has looked like he’s been running in quicksand all August and September. The Falcons really need to incorporate Jacquizz Rodgers more into the offense and abandon the plodding Turner unless they’re inside the 5-yard line.

RECAP: I hate to go zero units on Monday Night Football because it’s the only game of the day, but I honestly have no idea where to go with this one. I can make a strong argument for both teams…

For Denver: Peyton Manning as an underdog? Sounds good to me. Manning is 14-3 against the spread getting points since 2003. Betting him in this situation has pretty much been automatic. Another nice trend is that Manning is 10-4 ATS on Monday night.

For Atlanta: With all the talk about Manning, this seems like it could be a statement game for the Falcons. This is their opportunity to prove that they’re legitimate with the entire country watching them. Also, Ryan is pretty unstoppable at home.

I’m tentatively picking the Broncos because I’m tired of going against Manning in nationally televised games. I may change my mind later in the week though, so stay tuned.

The Psychology. Edge: Falcons.

This seems like it could be a statement game for Atlanta.

The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.
Peyton Manning as an underdog!?

Percentage of money on Denver: 61% (116,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

Broncos are 10-20 ATS vs. the NFC since 2003.

Peyton Manning is 14-3 ATS as an underdog since 2003.

Peyton Manning is 10-4 ATS on Monday Night Football.

Matt Ryan is 20-9 ATS at home.

Opening Line: Falcons -4.

Opening Total: 49.

Weather: Dome.

Week 2 NFL Pick: Broncos 38, Falcons 34
Broncos +3 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 50.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Falcons 27, Broncos 21

Week 2 NFL Picks – Early Games
Bears at Packers, Chiefs at Bills, Vikings at Colts, Browns at Bengals, Texans at Jaguars, Cardinals at Patriots, Raiders at Dolphins, Buccaneers at Giants, Ravens at Eagles, Saints at Panthers

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser: Giants -1, Texans -1 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200

Moneyline Underdog: Bears +195 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$50

Moneyline Underdog: Seahawks +160 (0.5 Units) — Correct; +$80

NFL Picks - Nov. 20

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)