NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 9, 2011

NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2011): 5-9-2 (-$575)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2011): 6-8-2 (-$1,030)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2011): 10-5-1 (+$610)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2011): 7-9 (-$970)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2011): 9-4 (-$270)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2011): 5-7-1 (-$1,290)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2011): 4-8-1 (-$820)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2011): 3-10 (-$1,145)

NFL Picks (2011): 60-64-7 (-$4,150)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 7, 5:20 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 9 NFL Picks – Early Games

Denver Broncos (2-5) at Oakland Raiders (4-3)
Line: Raiders by 7. Total: 42.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 8): Raiders -6.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 8): Raiders -9.
Sunday, Nov. 6, 4:05 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Raiders.

As a reminder, get your pick in for the WalterFootball.com 2011 NFL Survivor Pool. There are now only 62 entries remaining from the 2,749 that started. Three people lost last week because of the Saints. One dropped out when the Panthers lost. And one person picked Seattle for some strange reason. The moral of the story? Don’t smoke crack before making your survivor pick.

Also, you can create your own 2012 NFL Mock Draft. If it’s good and the write-ups make factual/logical sense, it can be featured in the 2012 NFL Mock Draft Database.

DENVER OFFENSE: Tim Tebow has no chance. Haters, from the two clowns on Sunday NFL Countdown to people who promote racism like Yahoo’s Michael Silver, were loving Tebow’s struggles against the Lions. But I think all quarterbacks would look nearly as inept if their own head coach drew up the worst game plan of all time for them.

The ironic thing is that John Fox told the media that he created a very Tebow-friendly game plan for the Detroit contest. If so, where were the running plays and the screens? Why was Tebow taking five- and seven-step drops all the time? Either Fox is completely stupid or he’s out to sabotage Tebow’s career. If you think the latter is improbable, please read my exclusive interview with Fox in my NFL Power Rankings.

As for this week, it’s hard to imagine Tebow having much success. I love the guy (no homo), but he has no help. His receivers are crap, his offensive line can’t block, and his coaching staff stinks. Willis McGahee could be out again, so Denver won’t be able to take advantage of Oakland’s 26th ranking against the run (4.8 YPC).

OAKLAND OFFENSE: The Broncos have a chance to win this game though because Carson Palmer is terrible. The Raiders traded away a first- and a second-round pick for him, but he just looked awful in relief of Kyle Boller in Week 7. Sure, he was rusty, but his passes lacked any sort of zip.

Besides, it’s not like the rust will just go away. Because the new stupid post-lockout rules, Palmer wasn’t able to practice with his receivers during the week off. Great job, NFLPA.

Making matters worse for the Raiders is that Darren McFadden could miss another game. He didn’t practice Monday because of a foot injury. Even if he plays, he could be limited. Plus, the Broncos somehow aren’t completely inept versus the run (12th; 4.1 YPC).

RECAP: Make sure you bet your mortgage on Oakland because Denver is one of my favorite plays of the week. Here’s why:

1. This line is inflated because of what happened Sunday. How quickly we forget what happened two weeks ago. I’d argue that Tebow has more of a chance to put together a solid outing because he can at least scramble. Palmer can’t do anything.

2. Speaking of last week’s results, underdogs coming off a loss of more than 28 points are 58-33 against the spread since 2002, excluding Week 17 games. As you can imagine, teams that get “blowed out” have the line heavily inflated against them, since no one wants to bet on them.

3. Yet another public fade. Like I said, if I’m going down, I’m taking Vegas with me.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.

Only a two-thirds lean on the Raiders.

Percentage of money on Oakland: 67% (55,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

History: Road Team has won 6 of the last 7 meetings (Raiders 9-2 ATS since 2006).

Raiders are 5-21 ATS at home vs. teams with losing records.

Raiders are 4-11 ATS as a favorite since 2006.

Opening Line: Raiders -7.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: Possible showers, 53 degrees. Light wind.

Week 9 NFL Pick: Raiders 16, Broncos 13
Broncos +7 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Under 42 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Broncos 38, Raiders 24
MISSING

Cincinnati Bengals (5-2) at Tennessee Titans (4-3)
Line: Titans by 2.5. Total: 41.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 8): Titans -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 8): Titans -3.
Sunday, Nov. 6, 4:05 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Bengals.

If you didn’t see it, Emmitt on the Brink is back! Season 4, Episode 8 has been posted – Terrell Owens is rejected by more teams – and not just NFL teams.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Two months ago, if you told anyone that Chris Johnson would be benched in favor of Javon Ringer, you would have been forced to room with the guy in the mental hospital who eats the “peanut butter” that comes out of his butt. CJ20 has averaged 2.8 yards per carry this year. His blocking has been terrible, but he deserves a lot of the blame as well because he’s tentative and out of shape. Ringer is a much better option.

Unfortunately for Ringer, he won’t find much running room against the Bengals, who rank fourth against the run (3.4 YPC). Thus, Matt Hasselbeck will have to do a lot of the work.

Hasselbeck had a decent outing last week, but that was against the Colts. All in all, he’s really struggled since losing Kenny Britt, and I don’t expect that to change against Cincinnati’s suffocating ninth-ranked aerial defense (6.6 YPA).

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Andy Dalton has been amazing. He’s beaten expectations and maintained a 9:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a YPA of 7-plus if you throw out a Week 3 outlier against the 49ers.

Dalton doesn’t have a good matchup on paper because Tennessee is fourth versus the pass. However, that’s a bit misleading because the Titans have played quite a few crap quarterbacks this year, including Luke McCown, Colt McCoy, Curtis Painter and Kyle Orton. Tennessee has just three sacks in its previous three games, so Dalton should have lots of time to find A.J. Green and Jerome Simpson downfield.

The Titans also haven’t been able to stop the run recently. They’ve surrendered 5.1 YPC to opposing backs dating back to Week 5. Cedric Benson, returning from suspension, could easily eclipse the century mark.

RECAP: Marvin Lewis thrives as an underdog, particularly when playing his second consecutive road tilt (7-1 ATS). The Bengals are the better team, and there’s not enough betting action on them to make me worry about this strange spread.

The one thing I’d be concerned about is motivation. Cincinnati has Pittsburgh and Baltimore looming after this contest. That’s why I can’t bet the Bengals in this spot. In fact, I’d take Tennessee if I had to. This game just doesn’t mean anything to Cincinnati.

The Psychology. Edge: Titans.

This game actually doesn’t mean much to the Bengals. They can lose this and be fine if they beat the Steelers and Ravens.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.

No surprise to see the Bengals as a public dog here.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 75% (52,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bengals.

Marvin Lewis is 7-1 ATS in his second consecutive road game as an underdog.

Bengals are 16-6 ATS as underdogs since 2009.

Opening Line: Titans -3.

Opening Total: 40.5.

Weather: Sunny, 66 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

Week 9 NFL Pick: Titans 20, Bengals 14
Titans -2.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 41.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Bengals 24, Titans 17

St. Louis Rams (1-6) at Arizona Cardinals (1-6)
Line: Cardinals by 2. Total: 41.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 8): Cardinals -4.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 8): Cardinals -1.
Sunday, Nov. 6, 4:15 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Rams.

A friendly reminder that Jerks of the Week for Oct. 24, 2011 are up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks are 1) Barbeque Boy. 2) Vegetable Indian. 3) The Hammer’s Mom.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: This could be an epic battle between John Skelton and Adam Joshua Feeley. Kevin Kolb has a turf toe injury and appears as though he won’t be able to play.

Skelton has a ton of upside. He has a huge arm and played well in a battle against the Cowboys last year. However, he’s not ready to start in this league, and he figures to struggle behind his decrepit offensive line, even against the Rams, who sacked Drew Brees six times on Sunday.

With Skelton under center, St. Louis will be able to sell out against the run. This is very fortunate for the Rams, as they rank 31st versus the rush (5.6 YPC) and need all the help they can get.

ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: Sam Bradford has a better chance of playing than Kolb. Bradford is out of his walking boot and moving around pretty well, according to reports. However, he’s not going to practice Wednesday, so his status for Sunday is still in doubt.

Regardless of who starts under center, either quarterback should have success against a putrid Arizona secondary that has surrendered 697 passing yards the past three weeks. Their top cornerbacks, including Patrick Peterson, are all getting torched this year. It doesn’t help that the pass rush is inconsistent.

Steven Jackson won’t have as big of a game as he had last week, but he could still top the century mark. The Cardinals are just a mediocre 15th versus the rush (4.2 YPC).

RECAP: I can’t give you a definitive pick yet because there’s no spread, but I’ll probably be siding with St. Louis. The Cardinals have thrown the kitchen sink against the Steelers and Ravens the past two weeks, so they could easily be flat this Sunday.

Besides, the Rams aren’t nearly as bad as their record indicates. Six of the seven teams they’ve battled thus far have been the Eagles, Giants, Ravens, Packers, Cowboys (first game without Bradford) and Saints, so they’re due to rack up a few wins against crappy opponents.

Check back later in the week when a spread is posted so you know whom to bet against.

The Psychology. Edge: Rams.

The Cardinals could be flat following their loss to the Ravens.

The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.
Slight lean on the visitor.

Percentage of money on St. Louis: 61% (35,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

History: Cardinals have won 8 of the last 9 meetings.

Rams are 28-46 ATS in road games since 2001 (9-9 since 2009).

Rams are 19-30 ATS on grass since 2001.

Opening Line: Cardinals -3.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 9 NFL Pick: Rams 27, Cardinals 17
Rams +2 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Over 41.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Cardinals 19, Rams 13

New York Giants (5-2) at New England Patriots (5-2)
Line: Patriots by 9. Total: 51.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 8): Patriots -7.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 8): Patriots -7.
Sunday, Nov. 6, 4:15 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: None.

It’s time for Notes from NFL.com GameCenter – a list of a few stupid comments I found on NFL.com’s GameCenter and my thoughts on them (the first two from Facebook friend Jay B.):

1. “LOL to funny pacers first lost will come from the VIKES!!”

No wonder I lost my four-unit bet in Week 7. The stupid Indiana Pacers were playing the Vikings.

2. “release the KACKEN! CASON PALMER”

There are so many things utterly hilarious about this epic fail of a post that I don’t even know where to begin.

3. Last week, I showed you what our friend Farim said to a female poster named Kimbrkitty (thanks to e-mailer Emily S. for pointing out who wrote it):

“wsp s.e.x.y”

I checked Farim’s profile, and here are some other things he wrote to other female posters:

Well, at least he kept it classy with Omgitzlano. Guess he plans to make an honest woman out of her.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: I can’t believe how utterly putrid New England’s defense is. They’re decent against the run, but their secondary is, as Franchize would say, “f***ing trash!” The Patriots have surrendered at least 317 passing yards to every single quarterback this year except Mark Sanchez in Week 5. They’ve gotta be on pace for some sort of record.

Eli Manning will pick up where Ben Roethlisberger left off. It appears as though he’ll have Hakeem Nicks, who injured his hamstring against the Dolphins. The only possible issue regarding New York’s aerial attack is whether Eli can avoid interceptions or not. That’s always been his Achilles’ heel.

As indicated, New York’s ground attack will not work as well, but the good news is that it appears as though a banged-up Ahmad Bradshaw is expected to play. Bradshaw figures to be more of a factor as a receiver coming out of the backfield.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Tom Brady struggled against the Steelers last week, but I’ll be shocked if he has a second consecutive pedestrian performance. This is Brady we’re talking about, after all.

Of course, it would help if Bill Belichick stopped using old men (Kevin Faulk) and complete losers (Chad Ochocinco). He has young, talented skill players like Stevan Ridley, Shane Vereen and Taylor Price. I don’t get why he’s utilizing Faulk and Ochostinko.

At any rate, the Giants will bring the heat like the Steelers did this past Sunday, but I expect Brady to adjust. He could rely on the running game more; New York’s ground defense ranks 25th (4.8 YPC).

RECAP: Tom Brady is 15-7 against the spread following a loss since 2003. Delving deeper into that trend, however, he’s just 4-4 ATS as a favorite of a touchdown or more.

I don’t have a good read on this game. It wouldn’t shock me to see Brady go into “F-U” mode and win by a couple of touchdowns, but it also wouldn’t surprise me if New York pulled the outright upset. New England’s defense is just so bad. It’s worth noting, however, that every single team the Giants have played this year, with the exception of Buffalo, is currently under .500.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
It’s shocking to see equal action here.

Percentage of money on New York: 56% (73,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

Giants are 29-15 ATS on the road since 2006.

Patriots are 26-15 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.

Tom Brady is 126-42 as a starter (98-66 ATS).

Tom Brady is 23-11 ATS off a loss (4-5 ATS as -7 or more).

Tom Brady is 15-7 ATS off a loss since 2003 (4-4 ATS as -7 or more).

Opening Line: Patriots -8.

Opening Total: 52.

Weather: Clear, 56 degrees. Light wind.

Week 9 NFL Pick: Patriots 30, Giants 20
Patriots -9 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 51.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Giants 24, Patriots 20

Green Bay Packers (7-0) at San Diego Chargers (4-3)
Line: Packers by 5.5. Total: 51.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 8): Packers -3.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 8): Packers -4.5.
Sunday, Nov. 6, 4:15 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: .

More Notes from NFL.com GameCenter: From reading these idiotic posts every week for the past three years, I think we can confirm that the people on GameCenter fall into three categories: 1) little kids. 2) brain-dead people. 3) losers who do nothing but play World of Warcraft.

What do these three demographics have in common? They don’t get laid.

So, with that in mind, what happens when a hot chick starts posting on GameCenter? If the answer isn’t obvious, I can show you.

There’s a user named Kimbrkitty. Here’s her profile picture:

Here are some of the more perverted comments sent her way:

1. “want a kiss”

I’m pretty sure this is what Ben Roethlisberger said to the girl in that Georgia bar.

2. “u r like the only good loking girl on nfl.com lol”

And you’re one of thousands of perverted losers. Congrats!

3. “can you send me a pic of you naked and in a bikini”

You want both? What a greedy douche. Just be happy with one picture.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: I don’t care what Philip Rivers and his media apologists say – there’s definitely something wrong with him. He’s sailing passes and missing open receivers he would have hit last year.

I guess it didn’t help Monday night that his offensive line was completely abused. Tamba Hali embarassed the hell out of Marcus McNeill, whose job doesn’t get any easier against Clay Matthews. The only good news for San Diego’s front is that it doesn’t have to worry about the Arrowhead crowd noise this week.

Rivers will move the chains on occasion with the help of a consistent ground attack. Green Bay struggled versus the run going into its bye, yielding at least 112 rushing yards to three of its previous four opponents. Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert figure to return.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: As I write every week, the only way the Packers don’t destroy almost every single NFL team is if they shoot themselves in the foot. No team has the personnel to contain Aaron Rodgers and all of his weapons – especially the Chargers.

San Diego just made Matt Cassel look like a “great quarterback,” according to Ron Jaworski. Jonathan Baldwin went off against them. How in the world are they going to stop Rodgers?

The Packers could have some success with their ground attack as well; the Chargers rank 16th versus the rush (4.3 YPC). James Starks had a solid outing against the Vikings prior to the bye, so he could pick up where he left off.

RECAP: Rivers has a great record as an underdog, but if you’re expecting me to take the points, you would be wrong. He’s 0-2 ATS as a dog this year, and just doesn’t look completely healthy.

I’m riding Rodgers. He’s been playing out of his mind since the end of last season, and if you bet against him, you might as well light your money on fire. I know I said I was going to avoid public plays, but this is an exception.

If you need more convincing, consider this: Road favorites coming off a bye are 30-10 against the spread since 2002.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.

The money’s all over Green Bay, as you might expect.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 75% (61,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

Packers are 31-16 ATS on the road under Mike McCarthy.

Aaron Rodgers is 28-14 ATS since 2009.

Mike McCarthy is 5-0 ATS coming off a bye.

Chargers are 13-8 ATS in November home games since 2001.

Philip Rivers is 12-6 ATS as an underdog.

Opening Line: Chargers -5.5.

Opening Total: 52.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 61 degrees. Light wind.

Week 9 NFL Pick: Packers 31, Chargers 19
Packers -5.5 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Under 51 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Packers 45, Chargers 38

Baltimore Ravens (5-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2)
Line: Steelers by 3. Total: 42.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 8): Steelers -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 8): Steelers -4.5.
Sunday, Nov. 6, 8:20 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: None.

If you’ve been following my 2011 Fantasy Football Rankings this summer and you’re wondering which players to start, I’ve got you covered. You can check out my Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em page (will be posted tonight) as well as my Weekly Fantasy Football Rankings, which will be updated by Wednesday afternoon each week.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Joe Flacco is so inconsistent, it’s maddening. He launches these beautiful bombs to Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith, yet he’ll miss a wide-open receiver for a simple first down. I don’t think I could deal with it if I were a Raven fan.

Luckily for Flacco, the Steelers figure to be without LaMarr Woodley, James Harrison and James Farrior. They survived without the latter pair against the Patriots, but that doesn’t mean history will repeat itself against Baltimore. Pittsburgh came up with a very specific game plan for the Patriots. It’s not necessarily going to work against the Ravens because Ray Rice is in the backfield. I’d say he’s a bit better than Kevin Faulk.

New England couldn’t exploit this weakness, but Pittsburgh is a mediocre 18th versus the run (4.5 YPC). Rice and the Ravens compiled 170 rushing yards in the opener, and could post a similar total this Sunday.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Roethlisberger was woeful against the Ravens in the opener (22-of-41, 280 yards, TD, 3 INTs), but I don’t expect a repeat performance. The Steeler offensive line was in shambles back then, but it has since improved.

Another difference is that Big Ben is utilizing his young receivers more frequently now. Antonio Brown has emerged as a full-time starter and a complete stud, while Emmanuel Sanders is coming off a solid performance himself.

Roethlisberger will have to do it all himself though; Baltimore’s defense ranks third against the run (3.4 YPC). Don’t expect much from Rashard Mendenhall.

RECAP: The Steelers just beat the Patriots. The Ravens, meanwhile, lost to the Jaguars and barely vanquished the Cardinals. Yet, this spread is just -3 with the public pounding the host. Don’t you find that curious?

This traditionally is a close rivalry, so it’ll probably be decided by a field goal. And I don’t think enough is being made out of Pittsburgh’s injuries at the linebacker position. Everyone assumes the Steelers will be OK because they slew the Patriots. I think Baltimore will find a way to take advantage of all the backup linebackers.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.

I can’t see I’m shocked to see people betting on the team that just knocked off the Patriots.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 73% (68,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Home Team has won 16 of the last 20 meetings (Flacco 1-6 vs. Roethlisberger).

Ravens are 27-18 ATS in November.

Ben Roethlisberger is 25-13 ATS vs. the AFC North.

Opening Line: Steelers -3.5.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 56 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.

Week 9 NFL Pick: Ravens 23, Steelers 20
Ravens +3 +105 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$105
Over 42 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Ravens 23, Steelers 20

Chicago Bears (4-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-4)
Line: Eagles by 8. Total: 47.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 8): Eagles -6.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 8): Eagles -7.
Monday, Nov. 7, 8:30 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Eagles.

It’s Monday Night Football, but we’re going to have Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Don Tollefson and Herm Edwards, and inept ESPN guys Emmitt and Matt Millen. Here’s what it would sound like if those five clowns were calling this game:

Kevin Reilly: Welcome to Philadelphia, THE GREATEST CITY IN THE WORLD, HOME OF MY PHILADELPHIA EAGLES, THE BEST TEAM ON THE ENTIRE PLANET! WE’RE GOING TO CRUSH THESE STUPID BEARS TONIGHT. WE’RE GOING TO WIN 99-0. THIS IS GOING TO BE A MASSACRE FOR THE AGES!

Emmitt: Mike, you become a sports broadcasting for your vacation. This mean that not only do you has to broadcast the sport, it mean that you has to be unbiasness, which mean you does not like one teams more than the other ones.

Reilly: BUT THE EAGLES ARE THE F***ING GREATEST TEAM EVER!!!

Herm: Not great! Not good! Above average! A bit better than mediocre! Slightly better than mediocre! Not quite mediocre! Not on the level of mediocre! But a level above mediocre! Not here! Here! Not there! There! They lost four games before the bye! Four games! Four… uhh…

Reilly: Herm, I hate your guts, and I’m going to poison your next meal. If you watched any of those games, you know that they were fixed against my Eagles. Trained ninjas and assassins invaded the field and made sure the other team beat my Eagles.

Emmitt: Ninja and assins? Mike, you bein’ paranoid, like that scary movie that just come out, Paranoid Activity 3.

Reilly: I’m definitely not paranoid, but I’m going to make sure this never happens again. With the help of Matt Millen, I secretly stuffed a stick of dynamite into the rear end of every single Bears player. Ha! There are definitely going to be fireworks tonight!

Millen: And here’s what you mean by help. I bought 53 kielbasas at the market, and then I invited every single Bears player to my hotel room, where I stuffed the kielbasas up their rear end. What they don’t know is that I inserted dynamite into the kielbasas.

Reilly: And all I have to do is press this button, and BOOM!

Tollefson: Hey guys, where did you leave those kielbasas? Was it Millen’s fridge?

Reilly: Yeah.

Tollefson: Ah, crap.

Reilly: What? Tell me you didn’t ruin my plan!

Tollefson: I thought I’d try Millen’s kielbasa trick myself. I invited all the Eagles cheerleaders to my hotel room. After they cooked and cleaned for me, I shoved the kielbasa up their rear ends, and we all had a good time. I was so happy that the next morning that I bought 53 more kielbasas to replace what I thought were Millen’s.

Reilly: YOU IDIOT!!! YOU COMPLETELY RUINED MY PLAN! NOW ALL THE EAGLES CHEERLEADERS ARE GOING TO DIE, AND THE BEARS WILL LIVE! AHHHHHHHHHH I MUST SAVE THE CHEERLEADERS!!! EMMITT, TAKE OVER!!!

Emmitt: Thanks, Mike. We’ll be back after a… uhh… a couple word from our local sportsmanships.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Dream Team is finally playing up to its name. Fully taking advantage of one of the dumbest defensive game plans I have ever seen Sunday night, LeSean McCoy piled up the yardage, while QB Dog Killer was extremely sharp in hooking up with Brent Celek and his receivers on the rare occasion that they weren’t smothered by Cowboy defensive backs.

QB Dog Killer is coming off easily his best performance of the year, but I’m not so sure he can keep that momentum going. Lovie Smith, for whatever reason, just has had Andy Reid’s number. Lovie’s defense confused the hell out of Reid’s precious quarterback last year, forcing him into two interceptions and four fumbles.

I highly doubt Smith and Rod Marinell will employ the same game plan as Rob Ryan. Why Ryan opted to take away an overrated DeSean Jackson (who has barely done crap since his concussion) and allowed McCoy to beat him is beyond me. Chicago’s defense has performed well since losing to the Lions on Monday night, and I expect the unit to play for pride as a huge underdog.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Predicting what the Bears will do is extremely difficult because it all depends on Mike Martz’s mood. If Martz decides to be smart by max protecting Cutler, the Bears tend to be successful. If, on the other hand, Martz is careless about his protection schemes, Chicago has no chance.

Considering how much pressure the Eagles bring out of their formation, I’d think that Martz would be extra careful. Who really knows though?

Philadelphia still stinks against the run because of its inept linebackers and safeties, so Matt Forte should have yet another huge game. Once again though, it all depends on how intelligent Martz’s game plan is.

RECAP: I think this spread is about two points too high. It’s inflated by what happened Sunday night. Yeah, the Eagles were awesome, but A) The Cowboys are terrible and B) Reid is awesome after a bye.

Here’s a fun fact: You know how Reid is 13-0 straight up, 10-3 against the spread after a bye? Well, he’s just 3-7 ATS two weeks after a bye. Guess sportsbooks have done too much adjusting after each of his 13 victories.

TEASER HEDGE: I hit half my teaser (Packers +0.5). I’m going to hedge by putting half a unit on the Chicago moneyline, and hope that the Eagles don’t win by one or two.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 54% (99,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

Bears are 23-14 ATS in November since 2001.

Jay Cutler is 28-47 ATS.

Lovie Smith is 1-5 ATS off a bye.

Eagles are 72-51 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.

Andy Reid is 3-7 ATS two weeks after a bye.

Opening Line: Eagles -7.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Clear, 59 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.

Week 9 NFL Pick: Eagles 24, Bears 20
Bears +8 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 47 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Bears 30, Eagles 24

Week 9 NFL Picks – Early Games
Seahawks at Cowboys, Dolphins at Chiefs, Buccaneers at Saints, 49ers at Redskins, Browns at Texans, Jets at Bills, Falcons at Colts

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser: Packers +0.5, Eagles -2 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330

Moneyline Underdog: Buccaneers +360 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$50

Moneyline Underdog: Dolphins +180 (0.5 Units) — Correct; +$90

Moneyline Underdog: Broncos +280 (0.5 Units) — Correct; +$140

Moneyline Underdog: Ravens +160 (0.5 Units) — Correct; +$80

Teaser Hedge: Bears +320 (0.5 Units) — Correct; +$160

No parlay

NFL Picks - Nov. 20

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 12, 2024): 11-3 (+$2,020)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-1 (+$580)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-0 (+$1,400)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 12, 2024): 6-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 12, 2024): +$905

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 89-82-6, 52.0% (-$2,545)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 22-26-1, 45.8% (-$600)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-17, 51.4% (-$155)
2024 Season Over-Under: 82-82-2, 50.0% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$740

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)