NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 9, 2011

NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2011): 5-9-2 (-$575)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2011): 6-8-2 (-$1,030)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2011): 10-5-1 (+$610)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2011): 7-9 (-$970)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2011): 9-4 (-$270)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2011): 5-7-1 (-$1,290)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2011): 4-8-1 (-$820)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2011): 3-10 (-$1,145)

NFL Picks (2011): 60-64-7 (-$4,150)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 7, 5:20 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 9 NFL Picks – Late Games

Atlanta Falcons (4-3) at Indianapolis Colts (0-8)
Line: Falcons by 6.5. Total: 45.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 8): Falcons -7.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 8): Falcons -7.5.
Sunday, Nov. 6, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Falcons.

Week 8 Recap: Blegh. Some thoughts on my picks and handicapping in general:

1. For those wondering, this was not worst week ever. Believe it or not, I went 0-13-1 in Week 6, 2002. For some historical context, that Monday night was the Terrell Owens “Sharpie game.” I had the Seahawks +3, but the 49ers won by 7.

Coincidentally, 2002 was the last time I had a losing year before this one. The 2002 season was weird because of realignment. There were new rivalries and an expansion team, so it took me a while to figure things out. I believe the same thing is happening this year because of the lockout.

2. Everything is upside down. For example, how the hell do the Bengals win convincingly as road favorites as Seattle? I didn’t even have the Seahawks as a multi-unit pick, but the result still pisses me off. Cincinnati, a young team, did not deserve to be laying points on the road all the way across the country against an opponent with a great homefield advantage. The line opened Bengals -3 and dropped to -1 despite some action on them. It was a classic situation where the public would lose and the sharps would prevail.

Another example was Week 7’s Arizona +3.5 over Pittsburgh pick. The Cardinals were in a great spot to cover. The same Vegas dynamics were there, and Arizona’s coaching staff was really familiar with the Steelers’ personnel. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, was traveling across the country and had multiple tough matchups looming. In 2010, the Cardinals would have covered – I have no doubt about that. Instead, the Steelers slaughtered them, yet Arizona came back to cover the following week playing all the way on the East Coast in an early game.

Now, you may say, “The Steelers are better than the Ravens, that’s why that happened.” Well, what happened to Pittsburgh when it played the Jaguars, Texans and Colts? They lost to Houston, and barely beat Jacksonville and Indianapolis.

Nothing this year is making sense to me anymore.

3. Here’s another example of how everything is screwed up. Take a look at how Pacific teams have fared against the spread over the years when playing on the East Coast at 1 p.m.:

2003: 1-8
2004: 8-5
2005: 6-6
2006: 2-6
2007: 6-11
2008: 7-9
2009: 2-2
2010: 1-5
2011: 5-2

I know there’s no system that guarantees winners, but 5-2? How did these teams suddenly become good at this? Like, how in the world do the Seahawks beat the Giants straight up in the Meadowlands, but get blown out at home against Cincinnati? The spread didn’t even playing a factor in those two outcomes!

4. I’m stupid though. Last week, I talked about how highly bet teams wouldn’t cover because Vegas lost a ton of money and would “make sure” it won some money back. So, what do I go and do? I make the Ravens, Giants and Patriots three of my six highest picks. FML.

5. And here’s another reason why I’m dumb: Last week, I wrote an entire dissertation on how the bad teams were especially bad. The Dolphins, Cardinals and Rams all covered against teams I had in the top 10 of my NFL Power Rankings.

6. I stink, but it’s worth noting that 12 of the 13 special teams touchdowns in my multi-unit picks this year have gone against me. It was 1-of-12 going into Week 8, but Patrick Peterson scored against me. Once again, I’d like to apologize to the American Indian chief whose grave I accidentally urinated on this summer.

7. Despite what I wrote early Tuesday afternoon, I’m not going to give up. I’ve been talked of out it.

Anyway, I’ll be posting these NFL Picks throughout the day. Follow me at @walterfootball for updates.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: Don’t worry – the Colts still suck against the run. Chris Johnson really struggled against this defense last week, but he’s been awful all year. Javon Ringer relieved CJ20 in the fourth quarter and had much more success. Michael Turner will pick up where Ringer left off.

Turner will pile up huge chunks of yardage and make life easier for Matt Ryan, who will have the luxury of operating out of many short-yardage situations, thus nullifying Indianapolis’ defensive strength – the pass-rushing ability of Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis.

This was a good bye week for the Falcons because they’ve been able to get their receivers healthy. Roddy White has hampered by a knee injury, but he proclaimed himself fully healthy Tuesday. Julio Jones, meanwhile, returned to practice after dealing with a hamstring injury.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Colts absolutely can’t fall behind because that would completely negate Freeney and Mathis. Thus, they’ll have to find some way to move the chains, score some points and keep the ball away from Ryan.

Atlanta struggled a bit against the run going into the bye, surrendering 5.03 yards per carry in Weeks 6 and 7. If all things were even, Delone Carter and/or Joseph Addai should be able to put together a decent performance, giving Curtis Painter play-action opportunities. Unfortunately, all things aren’t even. Indianapolis’ offensive front is battered with injuries, so running the ball may not work as well as it would on paper.

The Falcons had nine sacks in the three games leading up to their week off, as Ray Edwards finally picked up the slack. Painter will definitely be feeling the heat, especially if his team falls behind early. He may have to rush for 70 yards again.

RECAP: The Colts stink. I feel like the Falcons are the right side, but I can’t recommend laying a touchdown with an above-average team. This is a 0-Unit Pick either way.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Colts.

No one’s betting the Colts? Wow!

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 88% (71,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts.

Colts are 20-13 ATS vs. the NFC since 2002.

Opening Line: Falcons -7.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: Dome.

Week 9 NFL Pick: Falcons 26, Colts 13
Falcons -6.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 45 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Falcons 31, Colts 7

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-3) at New Orleans Saints (5-3)
Line: Saints by 8.5. Total: 51.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 8): Saints -13.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 8): Saints -11.5.
Sunday, Nov. 6, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Saints.

I’ll post the Vegas recap after the hate mail. Here’s something from a Facebook “friend:”

Here’s another from Tom Bosley, who said I should change my job to “professional c**k sucker” (not cook sucker) a few weeks ago:

Here’s someone who is as racist as the jerks on ESPN who don’t acknowledge Half-Norwegian, Half-Korean Bisexual Heritage Month.

Here’s someone who was unfortunate enough to look at my picks after Saturday afternoon:

And finally, Russ L. makes his return! For those of you who don’t recall (click on the link), Mr. East is a “professional” handicapper, a.k.a. someone who gives out both sides of games to clients to make sure he can rope in 50 percent of his customers.

Vegas Recap: I thought the sportsbooks would have a huge rebound week. Not so much, though they did come out on top with the Rams, Cardinals, Dolphins, Steelers and Chiefs covering. They lost with the Texans, Bills, Lions and 49ers, but they did get a boost from New Orleans’ straight-up loss knocking off all three-team teases.

I’ll be updating the Vegas betting action all week, as usual. I’ll notify you of any updates @walterfootball.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Like the Falcons, the Buccaneers had their bye week at a good time because it allowed them to rest LeGarrette Blount. Not only will Blount make his return this Sunday; he’ll also serve as the third-down back in the wake of Earnest Graham’s injury.

Blount is coming back just in time because New Orleans’ ground defense is atrocious. The Saints have allowed four consecutive opponents to rush for at least 114 yards, including Graham. The Rams piled up 178 yards on just 29 carries on Sunday.

New Orleans is better against aerial attacks, but Josh Freeman always seems to play this defense well. He went 23-of-41, 303 yards and two touchdowns in the previous meeting.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Pass protection was a major issue for the Saints in their inexplicable loss last week. The Rams spent the entire afternoon in the backfield, sacking Drew Brees a whopping six times.

The problem for the Buccaneers is that they don’t have much of a pass rush. They have just 12 sacks on the year, including only two in the past three games. If they can’t rattle Brees, it’s going to be a long afternoon for this stop unit.

Tampa ranks 29th in pass defense (8.2 YPA). It did a good job on Brees when the two squads battled a few hours ago, but you could attribute that to Sean Payton injuring his knee and not being able to communicate with his quarterback. Things will be different this week.

RECAP: I’m taking the points. The Buccaneers always play the Saints well. Also, I don’t expect New Orleans to be at 100 percent after allowing St. Louis to win its first game in that fashion. Something is wrong.

This is a 2-unit selection, so I’m sure the Saints will kick a field goal as time expires to boost the margin from 7 to 10.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

About two-thirds of the action is on the host, which shouldn’t be a surprise.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 72% (77,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.

History: Road Team has won 4 of the last 5 meetings.

Raheem Morris is 4-1 ATS as a divisional dog of 7+.

Saints are 34-48 ATS at home since 2001 (17-12 since 2008).

Saints are 26-37 ATS as a home favorite since 2001.

Opening Line: Saints -7.5.

Opening Total: 51.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 9 NFL Pick: Saints 24, Buccaneers 20
Buccaneers +8.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Under 51 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Saints 27, Buccaneers 16

Cleveland Browns (3-4) at Houston Texans (5-3)
Line: Texans by 10.5. Total: 41.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 8): Texans -9.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 8): Texans -10.
Sunday, Nov. 6, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Texans.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. For those who didn’t hear, Rob Gronkowski issued an apology to owner Robert Kraft for posing with a porn star. Here’s a picture:

Luckily, I have Kraft’s office bugged, so I was able to record Gronkowski’s personal apology:

Robert Kraft: Son, I saw the picture of you and the porn star. What do you have to say for yourself?

Rob Gronkowski: I’m sorry, Mr. Kraft.

Robert Kraft: You better be sorry!

Rob Gronkowski: I’ll never pose with a porn star ever again, I promise.

Robert Kraft: What!? No, idiot! Next time, invite me!

Rob Gronkowski: Umm… what?

Robert Kraft: She’s hot! The next time you bang her, I want to be involved. I’m always down for some M-M-F action!

Seriously, Gronk should be ashamed of himself for not including his boss.

2. Why is it that we have to have former NFL players as analysts? Sure, they’re (sometimes) great with X’s and O’s, but barely anyone cares about that stuff. Besides, it’s not like they provide a wealth of insightful analysis otherwise. For example, Brian Billick said this a couple of weeks ago:

Tony Romo predetermines a lot of his throws. What that means is, he gets to the line of scrimmages, looks at the defense and predetermines his throws.

Blegh.

You know what that kind of reminds me of? In grade school, when they gave you a word on a vocabulary test and you had to use it in a sentence, a trick that would guarantee you a giant, red X would be: “Advocate: I advocate every week,” or “Chastise: They like to chastise after school,” or “Encroach: I like to encroach when looking at pretty girls.”

I wish my teachers were more lenient. I mean, why call my parents to tell them I encroach whenever I see hot girls in my class? There’s nothing wrong with that!

3. I’m so glad that Facebook friend Jon Z. introduced me to Emmitt Smith’s verified Twitter account (@emmittsmith22). His tweets are just as grammatically inept as his ESPN analysis. Here are some of them:

1. “Wow what’a game.”

The contraction “what’s” is short for “What is.” The contraction for “what’a” is “what a.” Apparently.

2. “Hop! a bunt.”

Sounds like a passage out of a Dr. Seuss book. I wonder if Emmitt likes green eggs and ham, Sam I am.

3. “Ya ur right! But the hole team need 2.”

Call me crazy, but a team stuck in a hole needs more than “2,” whatever the hell “2” is.

On a much lighter note, I love making fun of Emmitt’s grammar, but it’s all in good fun just to get some laughs. But it’s not like I dislike him or anything; in fact, I’ve heard great things from those who know him and met him. So, with that in mind, I recently became aware that Emmitt’s sister just had surgery for breast cancer. I hope she has a speedy recovery.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: “I can’t wait to see what this Browns team looks like when Peyton Hillis gets back on the field.” — Tom Jackson. Probably the same crappy way they looked when Hillis was playing.

The Browns have major issues sustaining drives because Colt McCoy is physically limited and he has no playmakers to work with. The closest thing is Greg Little, but he’s just a rookie. Besides, Little has to go up against stud corner Johnathan Joseph this week.

Hillis is expected to play, but there are two problems here. First, he may not be 100 percent coming off his hamstring injury. And second, the Texans have done a good job against the run lately, limiting Maurice Jones-Drew and the Jaguars to 70 yards on 21 carries. They sold out against Jones-Drew, and they’ll be able to do the same thing against Cleveland.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: The Texans have a star player of their own battling a hamstring injury. Andre Johnson’s return for Week 9 is questionable, but his team may not need him.

The Browns were gashed on the ground by Frank Gore last week; the 49ers compiled 152 rushing yards on 35 carries. There’s no reason to think that Arian Foster and Ben Tate can’t beat that total.

Pro Bowl cornerback Joe Haden will put the clamps on Schaub’s No. 1 receiver, as long as it’s not a healthy Johnson. Nevertheless, Houston will be able to move the chains consistently because Schaub will have the luxury of operating out of manageable downs.

RECAP: Despite everything I just wrote, I’m taking the Browns. I have a double-star Game Edge on Houston, but my double-star Game Edges have sucked this year. Plus, I’m going to be fading most publicly backed teams this week in hopes that Vegas recovers from all of their losses. If I’m going down, I’m taking the sportsbooks with me.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

A good lean on the host.

Percentage of money on Houston: 78% (59,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Browns.

Texans are 18-31 ATS after a win (12-15 since 2007).

Opening Line: Texans -10.5.

Opening Total: 40.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 9 NFL Pick: Texans 20, Browns 16
Browns +10.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 41 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
SURVIVOR PICK (6-2)
Texans 30, Browns 12

New York Jets (4-3) at Buffalo Bills (5-2)
Line: Bills by 2.5. Total: 45.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 8): Bills -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 8): Bills -3.
Sunday, Nov. 6, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Jets.

Five weeks ago, I showed you the following G-chat messages from someone who called himself “The Real John.” I also made fun of him:

I don’t know what’s more disturbing – the fact that TheRealJohn is “bedding” (a.k.a. having sexy time) with American futbol, or that he actually has “20K” to bet despite the fact that he doesn’t know how to spell “betting” or “Walter” or “sure.”

The Real John didn’t take too kindly to this. He replied with more incoherent messages:

I’ve since determined that The Real John is betting with Zimbabwe dollars (30,000 Zimbabwe dollars equals $1 U.S.) and that he bangs deformed Asian chicks with unibrows.

At any rate, I received an interesting e-mail from Chris S. during the week that discussed our friend from Zimbabwe:

I think I saved you from getting one more hate mail this week.

I picked all your games hoping for the rebound. I was feeling depressed on my flight back to Boston from Florida when I checked the Week 7 results, and I was watching the Ravens-Jaguars.

But the flight actually turned out to be interesting. I swear on my left nut this is true; there was this hammered Zimbabwean guy talking s*** about your picks and how he was losing $1000 bucks on the Ravens. I had to concentrate because he sounded like a mix between Ozzy Osbourne and a Dell customer service rep from India. After hearing your name and Web site, I was convinced he was talking about you.

They almost didn’t let this douche bag on the flight because he was hammered, spoke like a drunken Muslim and had a fake name. Now, I have Muslim friends and I am pretty sure Muslims don’t drink. I also don’t think “John” or “Jim” is a common Muslim name.

I asked him if he was breaking his religion by drinking and gambling. John or Jim replied to me, “Yes and so is having sexes with many woman.” His concubine smiled and nodded like this was correct; he never spoke a word but he kept his fingers on his mustache the entire flight.

Fortunately, Chis S. was able to take a snapshot of the concubine he was with. Here she is:

Ah, I didn’t know The Real John was dating Jay Leno’s daughter!

NEW YORK OFFENSE: It’s quite interesting that the Jets are just 1-point underdogs despite the perceived notion that the Bills are the better team. It sounds like the oddsmakers know something the public doesn’t.

Perhaps it’s that the Jets are a hell of a lot better with Nick Mangold back at center. With Mangold displacing the anemic Colin Baxter, they have been able to run the ball again. Shonn Greene was on a roll going into the bye, and I expect him to have a huge performance in Buffalo.

Kyle Williams’ injury didn’t have a huge impact last week because the Redskins are woefully inept, but I think it’ll be much more prevalent this Sunday. Williams is one of the top nose tackles in the game, and the Bills weren’t exactly stout versus the rush when he was in the lineup. I don’t know how they’re going to contain Greene and other running backs going forward until Williams returns.

Greene’s ability to pick up chunks of yards will make life easier for Mark Sanchez. The Bills don’t have much of a pass rush to begin with, so Sanchez could have all day to throw in his many third-and-short situations.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Jets themselves have struggled against the run. They’ve surrendered 97 rushing yards to every single opponent they’ve battled since Week 2.

That’s not a good thing with the Bills next up on the slate. Fred Jackson has been unstoppable this year, and there’s no reason to believe New York can contain him.

Buffalo will really need to rely on Jackson because of New York’s excellent aerial defense. Darrelle Revis will completely eliminate Steve Johnson, leaving Ryan Fitzpatrick with David Nelson and Scott Chandler as his top receiving options. Thus, he’ll once again have to utilize Jackson as a receiver coming out of the backfield.

RECAP: If there was a lot more action on the Bills, I’d be more concerned with picking them. But since the action is dead even, I’ll take them for a small wager. I think they’re the better team with the superior quarterback, and I feel like we’re getting good line value with this curiously low point spread.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 53% (68,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.

History: Jets have won 5 of the last 6 meetings.

Bills are 24-12 ATS in November home games the previous 36 contests.

Bills are 17-10 ATS at home after Oct. 1 when favored by fewer than 6 points since 2002.

Bills are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 home games vs. a team with a winning record.

Opening Line: Bills -1.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Sunny, 59 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.

Week 9 NFL Pick: Bills 22, Jets 19
Bills -2.5 -120 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$60
Under 45 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Jets 27, Bills 11

Miami Dolphins (0-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-3)
Line: Chiefs by 4. Total: 40.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 8): Chiefs -7.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 8): Chiefs -7.

Sunday, Nov. 6, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Chiefs.

If you’ve been following this site, you know that I make a habit of responding to my spam mails. I spent the early part of this season parading around as Mufasa Snow, the supposed bastard son of Saddam Hussein.

I’ve since gone away from that, but e-mailer Brian H. sent me the following:

They found our $6 billion!
Walt – you better go tell them that the money they found really belongs to Mufasa Snow/you! And remember you promised me 10% as a finder’s fee! Once thought lost and now found $6 billion. You know I had to post something in their comment section. I don’t know if they’re going to delete it, so if it’s not there anymore, here’s a screen shot:

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: I don’t know if I’ve ever seen such a mixed offensive performance from a team. The Chiefs looked flawless at times on Monday night, with Matt Cassel suddenly emerging as a “great quarterback,” according to Ron Jaworski. On the flip side, Todd Haley seemingly used carrier pigeons to get the plays in, leaving Cassel with no time on the clock to survey the defense from under center. And then there were the two bungled 2-minute drills at the end of each half.

I expect the Chiefs’ offense to be fairly limited Sunday as long as top Miami corner Vontae Davis is in the lineup. Davis played in Week 7, but missed last week’s contest with a hamstring injury. The Dolphins will need him with Jonathan Baldwin emerging as a dangerous No. 2 wideout across from Dwayne Bowe.

Miami ranks 10th versus the run (3.99 YPC), so even if Davis is out, Jackie Battle won’t be able to gash this stop unit. Not that he has the talent to do so anyway.

MIAMI OFFENSE: I’d like to know how Matt Moore transformed into Steve Young in the first half of the Giants game. Not only was Moore accurate on most of his passes; he was running around and scrambling for first downs.

Things fell apart for Moore in the second half, and his struggles should continue. Stud corner Brandon Flowers, bastard of Highgarden, will shut down Brandon Marshall, just as he did to Vincent Jackson on Monday night. Moore will have to look elsewhere to throw, but his other options are the underwhelming Davone Bess, Brian Hartline and Anthony Fasano.

The Dolphins should be able to run the ball though. Kansas City has struggled versus ground attacks coming off the bye, yielding 227 yards on 47 carries (4.8 YPC) in the past two weeks.

RECAP: Unload your entire sportsbook account on the Chiefs because I really love the Dolphins. Here’s why:

1. Kansas City was partying like it was 1999 following its overtime victory over San Diego. This is a short work week for the Chiefs, so they probably won’t be fully focused for the winless Dolphins.

2. Single-digit underdogs playing in their second consecutive road game off a loss have covered the spread at a 66-percent clip (102-51 ATS) over the past decade.

3. This doesn’t have nearly as great of a sample size, but I think the logic is there: Winless teams (0-4 or worse) playing a team coming off a Monday Night Football game are 11-5 ATS since 1989. It makes sense that these squads would cover since the opponent probably isn’t focused off short rest with vastly inferior competition on the horizon.

4. This spread is so shady. Everyone just watched the Chiefs slay the public Chargers on national TV, yet the line is only -5? There’s tons of action on the host, but the line hasn’t moved yet. Something’s up.

The Psychology. Edge: Dolphins.

The last game was emotional overtime victory against a divisional rival. This contest is against a winless team.

The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.

What’s up with this small spread?

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 74% (71,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.

Dolphins are 10-2 ATS on the road vs. teams with a winning record since 2007.

Tony Sparano is 6-2 ATS in his second consecutive road game as an underdog.

Tony Sparano is 19-9 ATS on the road.

Dolphins are 3-12 ATS after a loss of 6 or fewer points since 2007.

Chiefs are 13-22 ATS at home since 2007.

Opening Line: Chiefs -5.

Opening Total: 39.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 62 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.

Week 9 NFL Pick: Dolphins 16, Chiefs 13
Dolphins +4 (4 Units) — Correct; +$400
Under 40.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Dolphins 31, Chiefs 3

San Francisco 49ers (6-1) at Washington Redskins (3-4)
Line: 49ers by 5. Total: 37.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 8): 49ers -1.5.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 8): 49ers -3.
Sunday, Nov. 6, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: 49ers.

Video of the Week: I think you’ll like this video unless you’re a Bears fan. I found this hilarious and revealing Jay Cutler interview on YouTube.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: No. 1 receiver? Gone. No. 1 running back? Gone. Left tackle? Gone. Left guard? Gone. No. 2 Tight end? Gone. Starting quarterback from Week 1? Benched.

Oh, and added this week: No. 1 tight end? Ankle sprain; could be out.

I’d like to tell you how John Beck, Ryan Torain and Jabar Gaffney will move the chains against San Francisco’s sick defense, but the previous two “paragraphs” pretty much sum it up.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Can the 49ers score enough points to cover this unbelievably high point spread? It’ll be tough, but I think they can do it.

The Redskins have allowed three consecutive opponents to rush for at least 116 yards. They’re not going to be able to stop Frank Gore, so Alex Smith will have the luxury of operating out of manageable down-and-distance situations. This is extremely important because the only thing Washington has going for it is its pass rush. Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan can get to the quarterback consistently, so establishing a lead and feeding the rock to Gore consistently will nullify that.

RECAP: The 49ers can’t possibly cover this spread. This line is so shady, as everyone and their evil stepsister is betting on the visitor. Vegas is in such a hole that they’re going to fixed this game, right?

The one thing the Redskins have going for them is that West Coast favorites playing on the East Coast have a terrible history of covering the spread (10-24 ATS since 1998). But Jim Harbaugh’s squad has already defeated the Eagles and Bengals, so they shouldn’t have much of an issue with the crappy Redskins. At least in theory.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.

What kind of crazy person would bet on Washington right now?

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 87% (38,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Redskins.

West Coast favorites on the East Coast are 10-24 ATS since 1998.

Opening Line: 49ers -3.5.

Opening Total: 39.5.

Weather: Nice weather.

Week 9 NFL Pick: 49ers 21, Redskins 20
Redskins +5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Over 37 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
49ers 19, Redskins 11

Seattle Seahawks (2-5) at Dallas Cowboys (3-4)
Line: Cowboys by 11. Total: 45.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 8): Cowboys -10.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 8): Cowboys -11.5.
Sunday, Nov. 6, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Cowboys.

Bo-Bo has retired, so as promised, here’s the NFL.com Fantasy Draft – Round 3:

Rich Eisen: Welcome back to Round 3. When we left off, Matt Millen was stripped of yet another pick.

Charles Davis: Stop using foul language, mister!

Rich Eisen: What? “Stripped?” That’s not foul language. Kurt, you’re up.

Kurt Warner: You know, Charles Davis is right. There’s too much swearing going on. You’re talking about strippers and using phrases like “Jesus f***ing Christ,” and then there’s Dennis Green, who has sinned about 500 times during this draft.

Dennis Green: Make your f***ing pick Kurt, before I shove my f***ing sin up your f***ing a**.

Kurt Warner: See what I mean?

Rich Eisen: Can you please just make your pick, Kurt? We’ve been drafting for hours, and it’s only the middle of Round 3. I’m having a major headache.

Kurt Warner: The headache is the punishment for your sins. But don’t worry, Rich. I’m going to sacrifice my pick to the Gods to absolve you and Dennis Green.

Dennis Green: Who the f*** cares? Make your f***ing pick so we can get on with this s***.

Kurt Warner: To absolve you from your sins, I must begin three hours of prayer. Starting now: HMMMMM… HMMMMMMMMMM… HMMMMMMMMMMMM…

Rich Eisen: OK, I guess we can move on. Dennis, it’s your turn.

Dennis Green: About f***ing time. Give me LeSean McCoy.

Rich Eisen: Sorry, Dennis, Mooch already has LeSean McCoy. You forfeit your turn.

Dennis Green: WHAT!?!?! YOU F***ING LET STEVE MARIA**HOLE STEAL MY LARRY FITZGERALD AND NOW I’M F***ING TRYING TO STEAL ONE OF MY F***ING PLAYERS BACK AND I HAVE MY TURN FORFEITED!? I’M F***ING DONE WITH THIS S***!

Kurt Warner: Make that four hours of prayer. HMMM… HMMMMMMM… HMMMMMMMMMMMMMM…

Dennis Green: DIE, MOTHERF***ER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

*** Dennis Green strangles Kurt Warner ***

Dennis Green: HOW DO YOU LIKE THEM SINS, B***H!?

Rich Eisen: Let’s take a break while I find someone who can take over Kurt Warner’s team. Stay tuned next week for more of Round 3. This draft will never end.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Seahawks stink, but the good news is that Tarvaris Jackson will be back under center. Well, I guess that’s not good news. Maybe somewhat OK news?

Jackson has his work cut out for him. His offensive line can’t pass protect and has no prayer of keeping DeMarcus Ware out of the backfield. Jackson will either have to get the ball out really quickly or scramble for a bunch of first downs. Doing the former could be a problem because of Rob Ryan’s confusing blitz schemes. Jackson isn’t exactly an intelligent quarterback, so he could be confused throughout the afternoon.

The quarterback known as “Poop Salad” will have to do most of the work because Marshawn Lynch won’t have any running room. The Cowboys rank seventh versus the rush. Yes, LeSean McCoy just ran all over them, but that’s because they were playing everyone back in hopes that Philadelphia’s receivers wouldn’t beat them. A completely dumb game plan, if you ask me, since DeSean Jackson has barely done crap since suffering a concussion late last year.

DALLAS OFFENSE: I believe DeMarco Murray is the real deal. He couldn’t run the ball much against the Eagles because his team was in an early hole, but he looked great in his limited carries. Unfortunately for Murray, he could easily struggle against the Seahawks, who are second versus the rush (3.1 YPC).

Murray’s inability to move the chains won’t affect the Cowboys too much, however. The Seahawks have an inept secondary featuring two starting cornerbacks named Brandon Browner and Dick Sherman, though the latter played pretty well in his first career start against the Bengals.

Tony Romo and his receivers should be able to rebound. Unlike last week, Romo won’t constantly be harassed in the pocket, as Seattle has just one player who can consistently get to the quarterback (Chris Clemons).

RECAP: It’s going to be tough for the Cowboys to get up for the crappy Seahawks, given that they’re coming off a tough loss to the Eagles. They really need to win this game though, so they won’t be completely flat.

The Psychology. Edge: Seahawks.

The Cowboys could be flat after losing to the Eagles. It’s not like they have to try hard to beat the crappy Seahawks.

The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.

A huge lean on the Cowboys.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 73% (74,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

Seahawks are 14-32 ATS on the road since 2006.

Cowboys are 13-5 ATS after playing the Eagles since 2000.

Tony Romo is 7-13 ATS as a favorite of -7 or more excluding Thanksgiving (4-0 on Thanksgiving).

Opening Line: Cowboys -12.5.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 9 NFL Pick: Cowboys 23, Seahawks 17
Seahawks +11 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 45 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Cowboys 23, Seahawks 13

Week 9 NFL Picks – Late Games
Broncos at Raiders, Bengals at Titans, Packers at Chargers, Rams at Cardinals, Giants at Patriots, Ravens at Steelers, Bears at Eagles

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 9 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Dec. 11

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 14, 2024): 3-10 (-$2,620)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 1-3 (-$665)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 0-3 (-$1,490)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 14, 2024): 5-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 14, 2024): -$265

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 109-102-8, 51.7% (-$4,140)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 25-35-1, 40.0% (-$2,425)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 24-21, 53.3% (+$505)
2024 Season Over-Under: 101-103-4, 49.5% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$420

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)