NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 10, 2010

NFL Picks (Preseason 2010): 9-6-1 (+$680)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2010): 8-7-1 (-$15)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2010): 7-8-1 (-$170)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2010): 10-6 (+$1,430)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2010): 7-7 (+$1,075)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2010): 8-6 (+$260)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2010): 4-9-1 (-$1,865)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2010): 8-6 (+$1,080)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2010): 7-6 (+$520)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2010): 6-5-2 (+$1,050)

NFL Picks (2010): 74-66-5 (+$4,045)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 15, 4:10 p.m. ET.

Go to Week 10 NFL Picks – Early Games

Kansas City Chiefs (5-3) at Denver Broncos (2-6)
Line: Chiefs by 1. Total: 45.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 9): Chiefs -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 9): Chiefs -3.
Sunday, Nov. 14, 4:05 ET
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The Game. Edge: Chiefs.

If you’ve been following my 2010 Fantasy Football Rankings this summer and you’re wondering which players to start, I’ve got you covered. You can check out my Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em page as well as my Weekly Fantasy Football Rankings, which will be posted by Wednesday evening.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: It’s all beginning to unravel for the Chiefs. Matt Cassel has really been exposed as a liability in the previous two games even though Kansas City prevailed in one of them. The fact though is that Cassel is so limited that the Chiefs really have no chance to mount a fourth-quarter drive if they need to overcome a deficit.

Fortunately for them, that may not be a problem this Sunday. The Broncos are just epically pathetic defensively, ranking 25th and 28th against the run and the pass, respectively. Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles could both have monstrous performances, setting up easy situations for Cassel.

Cassel, by the way, won’t have to worry about being pressured if he ever has to convert a 3rd-and-9, or something; the anemic Broncos have just nine sacks on the year.

DENVER OFFENSE: The Broncos have a great offense in between the 20s, but bog down once they get into the red zone. That’s because they can’t run the ball well and Kyle Orton’s arm is nearly as limited as Cassel’s.

I wouldn’t expect Denver’s ground attack to improve here. The Chiefs are 12th against the run, limiting the opposition to 3.9 yards per carry.

Kyle Orton will do the usual – move the chains until the team settles into the red zone. Whether the Broncos score three or seven once they get there will determine the outcome of this contest.

RECAP: There are great situational systems in favor of both teams here, which makes deciding the winner extremely difficult. On one hand, Todd Haley is perfect against the spread in his second-consecutive road tilt. On the other hand, teams failing to cover the spread in four-plus games are 15-5 against the number as home dogs.

I’m taking the Chiefs – just because they’re the better team, and I feel like they have a better chance of scoring in the red zone. But this is a zero-unit selection; I really don’t have any sort of read on this game.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.

All the Chiefs need to do is win. Seems like easy money.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 75% (84,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

History: Home Team has won 14 of the last 18 meetings.

Todd Haley is 3-0 ATS on the road after a road loss.

Chiefs are 1-7 ATS as favorites since 2007.

Broncos are 20-11 ATS at home when the line is -3 to +3 the previous 31 instances.

Broncos are 5-12 ATS in November home games since 2000.

Opening Line: Chiefs -1.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: .

Week 10 NFL Pick: Chiefs 20, Broncos 16
Chiefs -1 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 45 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Broncos 49, Chiefs 29

Dallas Cowboys (1-7) at New York Giants (6-2)
Line: Giants by 12. Total: 45.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 9): Giants -9.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 9): Giants -10.
Sunday, Nov. 14, 4:15 ET
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The Game. Edge: Giants.

Two opportunities to win money, if you’re into that sort of thing:

We are running our NFL Picking Contest again on our sister site, DraftDebacled.com. It’s free to enter, and there are monthly prizes ($75 for the winner, $25 for second place), so click on the link to sign up. It’s a new month, so our Picking Contest is starting over.

Also, if you’re still alive, get your pick in for the WalterFootball.com 2010 NFL Survivor Pool. There are 155 entries remaining out of 1,972.

DALLAS OFFENSE: All will be well with the Cowboys. After all, Jason Garrett is now the head coach. Now he can start calling incredibly awesome plays with Wade Phillips out of the way.

OK, maybe not. The Cowboys still have major issues with their offensive line – they’ve allowed 15 sacks in the past five games – which is not what you want against a monstrous Giants pass rush that has the second-most sacks of any team that hasn’t been on a bye yet.

With Dallas unable to run the ball – the Giants are fourth at defending ground attacks – Jon Kitna will have to operate out of long-yardage situations. Poor Kitna may not even finish this game.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: People like to hate on Eli Manning, yet he has 12 touchdowns to just five interceptions since Week 5, and has completed at least 64 percent of his passes in all but two games this year. He’s on fire and will continue to dominate against the Cowboys.

Dallas is really struggling to stop the pass right now. The team has surrendered 855 passing yards in the past three games. Terence Newman is old and washed-up, while Mike Jenkins just doesn’t seem to give a damn. I fully expect the Cowboys to target Patrick Peterson in the 2011 NFL Draft.

As for this game, Dallas doesn’t stand a chance against New York’s offense.

RECAP: Teams that have fired their coaches mid-season on a non-bye week are 2-11 against the spread since 1996. You can check out the list here on the NFL Betting Trends: Mid-Season Coaching Fires page.

I hate laying double digits, however, so I’m going to keep this bet relatively small.

SURVIVOR PICK: I’m somehow still alive. I picked the Vikings last week, and had to sweat out a miraculous Brett Favre comeback.

This week is seemingly pretty easy. The Giants are the obvious choice with the Cowboys undergoing a coaching change.

I was asked to list six possible survivor options each week, so here they are, from best to worst: Giants, Colts, Buccaneers, Falcons, and… that’s it. I can’t come up with a fifth or sixth choice. As always, never pick a road team. Never pick a bad team. Never pick an underdog. Never save any teams. Always choose the best option.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No pyschological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Wow, people are actually betting on Dallas?

Percentage of money on New York: 54% (97,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Giants.

History: Giants have won 5 of the last 6 meetings.

Teams that fire their head coach mid-season on a non-bye week are 2-11 ATS since 1996.

Giants are 16-22 ATS as favorites of 6.5 or more the previous 38 instances.

Opening Line: Giants -13.5.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: .

Week 10 NFL Pick: Giants 37, Cowboys 10
Giants -12 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Over 45.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Survivor Pick (9-0)
Cowboys 33, Giants 20

Seattle Seahawks (4-4) at Arizona Cardinals (3-5)
Line: Cardinals by 3.5. Total: 41.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 9): Cardinals -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 9): Cardinals -3.
Sunday, Nov. 14, 4:15 ET
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The Game. Edge: Seahawks.

Another friendly reminder that Jerks of the Week for Nov. 1, 2010 are up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks are: 1) Political Ads. 2) Candy Thieves. 3) Russian Gypsy Neighbors.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: “Seattle offense” was an oxymoron last week. The team couldn’t do anything against the Giants, mustering just 162 total yards at home. It was a pathetic display that set football back about 20 years.

Fortunately for Seahawk fans, Matt Hasselbeck and left tackle Russell Okung are expected back in the lineup. This is great news for Seattle, as Charlie Whitehurst didn’t resemble anything close to an NFL quarterback, while pass protection was a major issue for both Hasselbeck and Whitehurst with Okung out.

The Cardinals have surrendered 751 passing yards in the past two games and rank 26th against the run, so Seattle’s offense shouldn’t have any problems moving the chains.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Derek Anderson didn’t make any costly errors at Minnesota, but looked completely helpless once the Vikings started bringing tons of pressure in the fourth quarter and overtime. As soon as he saw the pass-rushers coming, he ducked for cover. Perhaps he dropped his magic flask and was looking for it on the ground.

The Seahawks bring tons of pressure. They have 21 sacks on the year, including 18 in their previous six games. That does not bode well for Anderson.

What the Cardinals will need to do is establish Chris Wells. The Seahawks once had a top-five run defense, but lost Red Bryant and Colin Cole for the year. They’re now 17th versus ground attacks, having allowed a whopping 395 rushing yards in the past two weeks. However, the overrated Wells hasn’t gained more than 3.9 yards per carry against any opponent aside from the Raiders in Week 3.

RECAP: I’m taking the Seahawks for two reasons. First, we’re getting points with the better team. And second, like the Panthers, they fall under the category of teams being 75-38 against the number the week after losing the spread by 25-plus points.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.

Slight action on Arizona.

Percentage of money on Arizona: 68% (67,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

History: Cardinals have won 6 of the last 8 meetings.

Seahawks are 12-26 ATS on the road since 2006.

Cardinals are 9-5 ATS vs. the NFC West since 2008.

Cardinals are 11-2 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 under Ken Whisenhunt. ???

Opening Line: Cardinals -3.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: Dome.

Week 10 NFL Pick: Seahawks 17, Cardinals 13
Seahawks +3.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Under 41.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Seahawks 36, Cardinals 18

St. Louis Rams (4-4) at San Francisco 49ers (2-6)
Line: 49ers by 6. Total: 38.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 9): 49ers -3.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 9): 49ers -3.

Sunday, Nov. 14, 4:15 ET
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The Game. Edge: Rams.

It’s time for Notes from NFL.com GameCenter – a list of a few stupid comments I found on NFL.com’s GameCenter and my thoughts on them (thanks to David R., Rob L. and Luke A. for these):

1. “giants if your confident to win recomand this”

giants if your illiterate like this guy, recomand this, whatever the hell that means.

2. “We do not need any divas or pre Madonna’s on our team we need football players that want to play Buc ball.”

Pre Madonna. You know, like the time before Madonna made music.

3. “FARVE IS DA BEST QB 2 EVER PLAY DIS GAME. IF U DONT LIKE HIM U DONT WATCH FOOTBALL DA MAN IS A LEGEND . NUMBERS DONT LIE YA DIGG HE IS TUFF AS PITTSBURGH DEFENSE HE’LL BE BACK NEXT WEEK.O RANDY MOSS IS A G. SNAP TONIGHT . HE NEED 2 START CATCHIN SUM DAM PASSES.”

Someone should create a gangster-to-English dictionary so I can learn what “ya digg” and “G. snap” mean.

ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: Sam Bradford has been incredible for a rookie, especially considering that he really doesn’t have any proven to throw to. Danario Alexander isn’t even expected to play this weekend.

But Bradford just continues to get it done – and should continue to play well against the 49ers, who rank 23rd against the pass. San Francisco has surrendered at least 250 passing yards to all but one opponent since Week 2.

While the 49ers’ defense has disappointed this year, they remain stout against the run, ranking third in that department. They’ve restricted three of their previous four opponents to fewer than four yards per carry, so Steven Jackson will have trouble keeping Bradford out of long-yardage situations.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: While the 49ers have struggled defensively this season, the Rams have shined. They’re 21st against the run, but only because of a slow start. Since Week 4, they’ve limited the opposition to 3.9 yards per carry.

St. Louis is even better against the pass. The team is fifth versus opposing aerial attacks, as no team has thrown for more than 250 yards against them since Week 2. The key has been the pass rush, which has 23 sacks on the year, and 18 in the past five games.

The 49ers have a stagnant offense. I don’t trust Troy Smith – anyone can look good against the Broncos – so San Francisco will have trouble putting up points Sunday afternoon.

RECAP: I’m taking the Rams for three units. There is absolutely no reason why the 49ers should be favored by more than three points; let alone six. Since 2002, teams that have gone 6-10 or worse are just 19-49 against the spread when laying six or more points. Obviously, this is a difficult system to follow because it’s hard to guess which teams will be 6-10, but I think we can be pretty sure that the 49ers aren’t going to win at least seven games this season.

A quick FYI for those who like to wager on five-team parlays and/or track how I’d fare in the Hilton Super Contest: This Rams pick is my fifth-highest play of the weekend (over the Falcons -1).

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.

What a shady spread. The public is all over the Rams.

Percentage of money on St. Louis: 68% (100,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

History: 49ers have won 8 of the last 10 meetings.

Rams are 25-41 ATS in road games since 2001 (6-5 since 2009).

Rams are 16-27 ATS on grass since 2001.

Mike Singletary is 7-3 ATS against divisional opponents.

Opening Line: 49ers -6.

Opening Total: 38.5.

Weather: .

Week 10 NFL Pick: Rams 17, 49ers 16
Rams +6 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Under 38.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
49ers 23, Rams 20

New England Patriots (6-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2)
Line: Steelers by 5. Total: 45.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 9): Steelers -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 9): Steelers -4.
Sunday, Nov. 14, 8:20 ET
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The Game. Edge: Patriots.

More Notes from NFL.com GameCenter (the second and third from Wraith):

1. “LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL I think we have a better Propection plan for Eli only sacks 11 times this year”

A propection plan? Sounds like something you’d need to go to the hospital for after four hours.

2. “PLZ REGGIE WAYEN OR PIERRE GARCON GET ALOT OF PASSES THROWN TO U SO I CAN BE WORRY FREE THIS WEEK”

Poor guy. I wonder what’ll happen if “Wayen” and Garcon have poor weeks. He’ll probably lock himself in a room and urinate all over himself.

3. “oh yeah????? LMAO hehehehehehehehe When you were conceived your mom totallyfarted and blew out the entire matrenity wing or whatever it’s called”

FAIL.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: I don’t know what happened to Tom Brady on Sunday. He was awful. He completely missed wide-open receivers all afternoon. It was like he grabbed Derek Anderson’s Gatorade bottle instead of his own.

Let’s chalk that up as a mulligan. Eric Mangini knows Brady better than most coaches, and the Patriots were clearly looking ahead to their battles against the Steelers and Colts. Besides, in the three other games after the Randy Moss trade, Brady is 62-of-103, 691 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions, including a furious 10-point fourth-quarter comeback against the Ravens of all defenses. Oh, and by the way, those three teams (Ravens, Chargers, Vikings) are 14th, ninth and 13th against the pass.

Brady is one of the best quarterbacks in NFL history. He’s going to be fine. If anything, he’ll be be in F-U mode now that everyone is starting to doubt him.

The Steelers are actually just 17th versus the pass. They’re having major problems at the cornerback position, and have consequently surrendered at least 248 passing yards to every opponent they’ve faced since Week 4.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Peyton Hillis just trampled the Patriots, so Rashard Mendenhall should be in for a similar type of performance, right? I don’t think so.

First of all, as I mentioned earlier, the Patriots were not completely focused for the Browns, so their effort was a bit lacking. And second, the Steelers have injury issues up front. Left tackle Max Starks might be done for the year, while left guard Chris Kemoeatu could be a game-time decision. Even if Kemoeatu plays, he may not be 100 percent.

Without Starks and possibly Kemoeatu, Rashard Mendenhall won’t find much running room. He wasn’t even that effective against the Bengals, who are 24th against the run. The Patriots are 19th, but aside from that Hillis effort, they’ve been very effective against ground attacks since their bye. I mentioned this in another write-up, but New England limited Adrian Peterson to his season-low YPC two weeks ago despite completely focusing on Randy Moss.

The Steelers will score on occasion because Ben Roethlisberger, Hines Ward and Mike Wallace are awesome, but they’ll have trouble maintaining consistent drives with a banged-up offensive line.

RECAP: The Patriots are my November NFL Pick of the Month. I love them in this game for so many reasons, I don’t even know where to begin.

1. Let’s start with the point spread. As of Tuesday evening, the Steelers are -4.5 in most books, and as high as -5.5 in some places. I personally think this is outrageous for two reasons:

1a. As with the Colts last week, the Patriots are a great bet because we’re getting an elite quarterback as an underdog. Brady is 14-7 against the spread getting points since 2003.

1b. We’re receiving tremendous line value with New England. Remember a week ago, when everyone on ESPN was saying that the Patriots were the best team in football? So why is the “best team in football” a 4.5-point underdog? A week ago, this spread would have been Pittsburgh -3. I had the Browns last week because I knew the Patriots would be looking ahead to this contest. So in reality, we’re getting 1.5 free points.

2. Oh, and let’s not forget that both Brady and Bill Belichick have to feel pretty pissed off right now. It’s not often that New England loses by double digits.

How has Belichick responded off a loss of 10 or more? Try 12-1 straight up and 10-3 against the spread since 2003. The one straight-up outlier was at Miami last year, and Brady was hurt in that game. New England only lost by one point anyway.

3. Speaking of Belichick being pissed off, he’s 6-1 against the spread as an underdog after losing as a favorite.

4. More Belichick: The hoodie-wearing coach usually excels in the latter end of a back-to-back road swing (11-6 against the spread; 5-2 ATS as an underdog).

5. Transitioning to the other team, Brady owns the Steelers. He’s 5-1 against Pittsburgh in his career. The Steelers won the previous matchup between the two teams, but Matt Cassel was quarterbacking the Patriots in that contest.

6. Again, the Steelers are having major problems with their offensive line. These types of injuries tend to go unnoticed by the betting public, as the casual gambler simply focuses on the quarterbacks, running backs, receivers and star defensive player. I really think Pittsburgh is going to have problems maintaining consistent drives with Starks and possibly Kemoeatu out.

FINAL RECAP: These seven reasons are why I love the Patriots. I can’t imagine liking a game much more than this for the rest of the month.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
This game could decide homefield advantage in the AFC.

The Vegas. Edge: Steelers.
Slight action on the Patriots.

Percentage of money on New England: 63% (117,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

Tom Brady is 114-38 as a starter (89-60 ATS).

Tom Brady is 21-11 ATS off a loss.

Tom Brady is 13-7 ATS off a loss since 2003.

Tom Brady is 14-7 ATS as an underdog since 2003.

Bill Belichick is 11-6 ATS in his second-consecutive road game.

Bill Belichick is 6-1 ATS as an underdog after losing as a favorite.

Ben Roethlisberger is 72-29 as a starter (53-44 ATS).

Opening Line: Steelers -4.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: .

Week 10 NFL Pick: Patriots 31, Steelers 28
Patriots +5 (8 Units – November NFL Pick of the Month) — Correct; +$800
Over 45 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Patriots 39, Steelers 26 MISSING
MISSING

Philadelphia Eagles (5-3) at Washington Redskins (4-4)
Line: Eagles by 3. Total: 43.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 9): Pick.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 9): Eagles -3.
Monday, Nov. 15, 8:30 ET
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The Game. Edge: Eagles.

It’s Monday Night Football, and unfortunately, we’re going to have Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of Emmitt Smith, Herm Edwards, Bob Griese and former Philadelphia Eagles Television Network guy Kevin Reilly (a huge homer who called Maurice Jones-Drew “Maurice Drew-Jones” and Torry Holt “Terry Holt”). Here’s how it would sound like if Reilly, Emmitt, Griese and Herm were in the booth for this game:

Kevin Reilly: Welcome to Washington, the second capital of the United States, and as we all know, Philadelphia was the first. Tonight, the Eagles will destroy the Redskins. Guys, this is my big night. The Eagles can finally show everyone how great they are. I expect us to win by 50. No 100. No 200! No 500! Ha! Not even Herm Edwards can ruin this night for me!

Emmitt: Kenny, you have boggle my brain and my mind with those scoring responsibilities. How can a team winned a game by 200 point, let aloned by 500 point? This have never happen in the history of the conference of professional footballs, and it never even happened in the conference of high school, or the conference of the thing that come after high school that have lots of party.

Reilly: Emmitt, you have to realize, when my Eagles are involved, anything’s possible. Do you know how good Michael Vick is? Michael Vick is the best quarterback to ever play football. I didn’t think he was good until he came to the Eagles, but now I realize how great he is.

Herm: Michael Vick killed dogs! Michael Vick drowned dogs! Michael Vick electrocuted dogs! Michael Vick stabbed dogs! Michael Vick raped dogs! Michael Vick burnt dogs! Michael Vick turned a dog into a cat! Then he turned a cat into a rat! And a rat into a bat! And then the bat got fat! And then the fat go splat!

Reilly: Herm, you have no soul. How can you not forgive Michael Vick? He paid his dues. I don’t care if he killed dogs, cats, bats, rats or even humans. As long as he plays for the Eagles, he deserves a second chance.

Griese: Michael Vick runs real fast and throws the ball real hard! He reminds me of a guy who used to play for the Atlanta Falcons. His name was… uhh…

Reilly: That was Michael Vick, idiot. Guys, do you know how good LeSean McCoy is? Or DeSean Jackson? Or Jeremy Maclin? We have the best team ever assembled. The only reason we lost games this year is because the refs cheated. If we had fair officiating, we’d be 14-0 right now.

Emmitt: I think you gettin’ very confuse, Kenny. The Eagle play only eight game thus farly in the season. This mean that their maximuminum record can be eight winned and zero lossed.

Reilly: Emmitt, if you don’t stop dissing the Eagles, I’m going to destroy your family.

Griese: Michael Vick destroyed families when he… uhh… did… uhh…

Reilly: See, you can’t say one bad thing about Michael Vick! He is the greatest human being ever, and I would want my son to grow up to be just like him!

Herm: You’re crazy! You’re mad! You’re…

Reilly: Shut the f*** up Herm! Shut up! Stop bashing my Eagles! Just stop it or I’ll end you! You hear me!? You’ll be finished if you say another word! We’ll be back after a word from our local sponsors!

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Kevin Reilly will hate me for this, but I’ve maintained that QB Dog Killer has no place in the NFL. But he did play somewhat well last week. The Colts were helpless defending him when he scrambled or threw long bombs to DeSean Jackson. I say “somewhat” because he couldn’t get the Eagles into the end zone. Also, Indianapolis dropped two interceptions, including a potential pick-six.

Washington’s secondary has not been very good this year. The team has allowed every single opponent it has faced to throw for at least 212 yards. DeAngelo Hall has been an interception machine this season, but QB Dog Killer has so many weapons at his disposal that he doesn’t have to keep targeting his fellow Hokie.

Besides, the Redskins also have to account for both QB Dog Killer and LeSean McCoy running the football. The Redskins are 28th versus the rush; their previous five opponents have all gained more than four yards per carry.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Who knows what’s going on with Washington’s quarterbacking situation? Donovan McNabb will start, but he just hasn’t been effective this year. Even against his former team, which knows very well, McNabb went 8-of-19 for 125 yards and a touchdown. In his previous three games, McNabb has thrown more picks (5) than scores (3).

Part of the problem is that McNabb has only one reliable wide receiver at his disposal, and that would be Santana Moss. Asante Samuel, who has been superb this year, will blanket Moss, forcing McNabb to resort to throwing to Chris Cooley and the other pedestrian wideouts on the roster.

The other issue is pass protection. McNabb has taken 22 sacks this year, which does not bode well for this game because the Eagles have 23 sacks on the season.

The Redskins won’t have much success running the ball. The Eagles are seventh versus ground attacks; they’ve restricted their previous four opponents to 75 rushing yards or fewer.

RECAP: McNabb came into Philly on Oct. 3 and led his new team to a victory over his old one.

The Eagles have not forgotten this. They’ll be highly motivated to avenge that loss. And given how poorly the Redskins have played offensively recently, Philadelphia should get the job done.

The Psychology. Edge: Eagles.
I’m sure the Eagles will want to beat Donovan McNabb this time around.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.

No one wants any part of the Donovan McNabb-Rex Grossman disaster.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 80% (139,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Redskins.

History: Redskins have won 3 of the last 5 meetings.

Eagles are 66-43 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.

Andy Reid is 14-10 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 or more. ???

Redskins are 10-6 ATS as divisional underdogs since 2007.

Opening Line: Eagles -3.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: .

Week 10 NFL Pick: Eagles 27, Redskins 17
Eagles -3 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Over 43 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Eagles 59, Redskins 28

Week 10 NFL Picks – Early Games
Ravens at Falcons, Lions at Bills, Vikings at Bears, Jets at Browns, Bengals at Colts, Titans at Dolphins, Panthers at Buccaneers, Texans at Jaguars

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Moneyline Underdog: Browns +155 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Moneyline Underdog: Seahawks +155 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$155

Moneyline Underdog: Rams +220 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Moneyline Underdog: Patriots +180 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$180

Small Parlay: Bengals +7, Panthers +7, Texans +1.5, Rams +6, Patriots +4.5, Eagles -3 (.5 Units to win 23.6) — Incorrect; -$50

NFL Picks - Nov. 15

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 13

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 12

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 11, 2024): 6-7 (-$1,275)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 11, 2024): 2-2 (+$65)
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Last Week Over-Under (Week 11, 2024): 6-7-1 ($0)
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2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-2, 50.0% (-$500)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 78-79-6, 49.7% (-$4,565)
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1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,499-3,231-202, 52.0% (+$17,105)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,126-1,010-57 (52.7%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 568-502-25 (53.1%)
Career Over-Under: 2,935-2,908-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-36-1 (56.6%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 5-3	Bears: 4-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-3
Eagles: 4-5	Lions: 8-1	Falcons: 5-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 5-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 4-5
Redskins: 4-5	Vikings: 3-6	Saints: 5-5	Seahawks: 6-2

Bills: 3-7	Bengals: 2-8	Colts: 5-5	Broncos: 6-4
Dolphins: 3-6	Browns: 3-6	Jaguars: 2-7	Chargers: 5-3
Jets: 5-5	Ravens: 4-5	Texans: 4-6	Chiefs: 3-5
Patriots: 5-3	Steelers: 3-6	Titans: 5-3	Raiders: 4-5

Divisional: 18-22 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 14-13 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 30-24 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 18-27 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 30-41 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-7 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 11-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-7 (2011-23: 33-37)