NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 20, 2017

NFL Picks (Preseason 2017): 9-10-1 (-$110)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2017): 8-6-1 (+$135)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2017): 9-7 (+$45)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2017): 5-11 (-$425)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2017): 5-11 (+$90)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2017): 8-6 (+$1,080)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2017): 6-8 (-$640)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2017): 3-10-2 (-$2,180)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2017): 6-7 (-$1,795)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2017): 7-5-1 (+$205)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2017): 8-5-1 (+$290)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2017): 3-10-1 (-$1,595)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2017): 9-6-1 (+$420)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2017): 6-10 (-$730)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2017): 8-8 (+$350)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2017): 7-8-1 (-$460)
NFL Picks (Week 16, 2017): 13-2-1 (+$1,500)
NFL Picks (Week 17, 2017): 12-4 (+$1,120)
NFL Picks (Week 18, 2017): 3-1 (+$160)
NFL Picks (Week 19, 2017): 2-2 (+$360)

NFL Picks (2017): 130-129-9 (-$2,180)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$1,055)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-132-7 (-$1,115)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Jan. 21, 1:50 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Jacksonville Jaguars (12-6) at New England Patriots (14-3)
Line: Patriots by 7.5. Total: 46.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Patriots -13.
Sunday, Jan. 21, 3:05 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Patriots.

WEEK 19 RECAP: My picks were 2-2, but it was a winning week overall at +$360, thanks to the Jaguars +7 cashing as a five-unit wager. My two losses (Falcons -3, Vikings -5.5) were very close to covering as well, but variance was not kind this past weekend.

I’ll be posting these NFL Picks all day Tuesday. Follow me at @walterfootball for updates.

My overrated-underrated feature will continue in this spot, and I’m going to emphasize injuries (particularly those on the offensive line)…

Underrated NFL Teams:

Chicago Bears: The Bears dropped four in a row prior to beating the Bengals, but they were without Danny Trevathan or top safety Adrian Amos for all four of contests. Trevathan is not only the heart and soul of Chicago’s defense, but he also happens to be the brains of the operation. Amos, meanwhile, has been playing on a Pro Bowl level. The Bears frequently blow coverages with Trevathan being out of the lineup, so it’s no surprise that their defense has been much better with him back on the field. They lost to the Lions and Vikings recently, but they outgained Detroit and averaged more yards per play. As for the Vikings loss, well, just chalk that up to Minnesota’s dominance.

Detroit Lions: The Lions seldom had anything close to a complete roster this season. In their most crucial game of the year, they were missing three starting offensive linemen. Detroit will be better in 2018 with improved injury luck.

San Francisco 49ers: It’s amazing what a competent signal-caller can do. The 49ers have had bad (Brian Hoyer) and abysmal (C.J. Beathard) quarterbacking this year, but Jimmy Garoppolo has been great against the Bears, Texans, Titans and Jaguars. With Garoppolo, the 49ers are so much better than 6-10. They have a solid running back, two talented tackles, and several impressive play-makers in the front seven. They still have some glaring holes at receiver, center and cornerback, but had Garoppolo started all year, I get the sense that the 49ers would be 11-5 or better right now.

Overrated NFL Teams:

Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons were two kicks on national TV away from being 8-8. They also beat Dallas when the Cowboys lost Sean Lee and already didn’t have Tyron Smith or Ezekiel Elliott. Even the win over the Rams was misleading; Los Angeles made so many mistakes, and the Falcons couldn’t really do anything offensively until Michael Brockers got hurt.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Oh boy. The Jaguars beat the Steelers, and now they are awesome again. Let’s not forget that they almost lost to the Bills at home, and that they lost at Tennessee in Week 17, and that they were blown out in San Francisco the week before, and that they lost to Blaine Gabbert in Week 12, and that they were up just 10-7 at Cleveland the week before. The Pittsburgh win was nice, but the Steelers have been listed as overrated on this site for almost two months now.

Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers are definitely not the same without Ryan Shazier, as they couldn’t stop Alex Collins runs and Joe Flacco passes without him. The freaking Ravens scored 38 points against them! No one should be surprised that they lost to Jacksonville.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot.

The highest-bet sides were 42-38-4 heading into Week 19. Here were the teams getting the most bets last weekend:

Falcons -3

Patriots -13

Steelers -7.5

Those teams went 1-2, bringing the overall record to 43-40-4. There isn’t much betting action on either team for Championship Sunday at the moment.

HATE MAIL: I didn’t receive much hate mail following Week 19, but there were a few posts worth featuring:

If you’re going to post hate, at least do your research. Don’t blindly guess at figures!

Meanwhile, someone is actually upset that I won a five-unit wager:

You can’t make this stuff up. This guy wanted me to lose on the Jaguars so much that he’s actually upset that I got the pick correct. Wow.

Here’s the last one. Please help me understand this because I have no idea what the hell it means:

Frogs definitely are great. Remember Frog from Chrono Trigger? He kicked some serious a**. Thanks for the compliment, bud!

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The victory over the Steelers apparently made Blake Bortles great again. The beleaguered quarterback was getting all sorts of criticism for his woeful showing against the Bills in which he overthrew players right in front of him. Bortles was much better against Pittsburgh, no doubt, as he came up clutch during some third downs. However, there are two things to consider. The first is that Bortles still had trouble completing half of his throws, and he was fortunate to escape with no interceptions, as some of his passes deflected up into the air. The second is that Bortles accomplished this against a horrible defense.

You don’t know how many times I read “Blake Bortles will struggle against Pittsburgh’s great defense” during the week. I had to check to see if I hadn’t transitioned into a parallel universe somehow. Pittsburgh had a strong defense earlier in the year, but the unit had completely fallen apart without Ryan Shazier. Yes, Shazier is only one player, but he was the defensive quarterback of the team. Without Shazier, the Steelers failed to stop Andy Dalton and surrendered 38 points to Joe Flacco. They were 1-5 against the spread without Shazier, with their sole ATS victory coming against a completely incompetent T.J. Yates-led Texans team that was also blown out against the Jaguars. Pittsburgh was doomed to fail, and it’s why I had five units on Jacksonville last week.

Prior to battling the Steelers, Bortles took on the Bills, who have an excellent secondary. The Patriots have similar players in their defensive backfield. Those players, as well as Bill Belichick’s schemes, will give Bortles some major problems. The improved pass rush, which sacked Marcus Mariota eight times, will also be a factor. Meanwhile, Leonard Fournette won’t have as much success, as New England will surely have their run-stuffer, Alan Branch, back from injury. The Patriots just bottled up Derrick Henry, and they’ll have similar success against Fournette.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The other narrative heading into this game is that the Jaguars have the formula to beat Tom Brady. To do so, defenses need to rush only four very effectively. Jacksonville obviously has a great pass rush, and it has the talented cornerbacks to take away the outside receivers. The Giants did this in their two Super Bowl wins, and now the Jaguars even have Tom Coughlin around filling out Sudoku sheets in the owner’s box.

It seems so easy to connect the dots and determine that the Jaguars will be Brady’s downfall this year. However, Brady should be able to take advantage of Jacksonville’s one liability, which is defending tight ends and pass-catching running backs. The Jaguars haven’t battled any elite tight ends this season, but they showed a major weakness against Vance McDonald last week. Delanie Walker had 61 yards and a touchdown against them in Week 2. Still, neither is as dominant as Rob Gronkowski, and I question how the Jaguars can possibly deal with him. Remember, Gronkowski wasn’t available for Brady during some of New England’s upsets. He obviously wasn’t around for the first New York Super Bowl victory, and he also didn’t play versus Baltimore in the AFC Championship upset during the 2012 season because of an injury. The Patriots did have Gronkowski in their second Super Bowl loss to the Giants, but he was just in his second year. Plus, as Facebook friend John F. reminded me, Gronkowski was hurt in that game.

Meanwhile, the Jaguars have surrendered some big games to pass-catching running backs this year. Philip Rivers was able to use Austin Ekeler very effectively in that near upset in Jacksonville in November. Duke Johnson also thrived versus Jacksonville. And just last week, we saw Le’Veon Bell have a monstrous game as a receiving back. No team utilizes multiple running backs as receivers as effectively as the Patriots, and I imagine this is how the Patriots will primarily move the ball until the Jaguar defenders become fatigued.

RECAP: I don’t understand this spread. Let’s look at it two ways. First, the Patriots were -13 over the Titans, so this is saying that Jacksonville is four points better than Tennessee, which is just ridiculous. Those two teams are close to even, as they had similar results versus most common opponents (both lost at Arizona and San Francisco, had trouble putting away the Browns, etc.) The Titans even swept the Jaguars. So, why aren’t the Patriots -13 here?

The second way is to glance at the Pittsburgh-Jacksonville spread. That was -7. The Patriots are more than two points better than the Shazier-less Steelers. We know this because they were favored by 2.5 in Pittsburgh!

If this line had been posted last week, following Jacksonville’s ugly win versus Buffalo, I imagine it would’ve been New England -12 or -12.5, or something like that. Yet, it’s only -9 now, which seems like a great bargain, as we’re going through a semi-key number of 10 (only margins of 3, 6 and 7 have more frequent occurrences.)

I love the Patriots in this game, and I’m willing to bet four units on them. My only concern is a Bortles back-door score, but the Patriots could be up by three touchdowns at some point in the fourth quarter, as they continue their tour of crushing crappy, overrated teams from the AFC South.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There are three interesting developments in this game. The first is the Tom Brady hand injury. Brady jammed his hand in Wednesday’s practice, which might be the reason this line has dropped a bit. However, Brady practiced Thursday, so it doesn’t seem like a big deal. Second, safety Tashaun Gipson isn’t practicing. If he misses this game, the Jaguars will have to use a replacement-level player instead, and I’m sure Brady will have lots of fun picking on him. Third, Leonard Fournette has been limited in practice. This is something I forgot to mention earlier. Fournette was clearly not the same following his return from his ankle injury in the second half of the Pittsburgh game. With all that in mind, I’m sticking with the Patriots, and the number I prefer is the -9 +100 currently available at Bovada.

SATURDAY NOTES: There are conflicting reports about Tom Brady’s hand. For instance…

That’s scary. On the other hand (get it, hand?) Ian Rapoport reported that Brady threw the ball “incredibly well” during practice Friday.

I’m not sure whom to believe. I may drop this to two or three units tomorrow during my Final Thoughts. I’m hoping for a better line than -7.5, so hopefully some -7s begin showing up.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I thought about dropping my unit count in the wake of Tom Brady’s hand injury and Alan Branch’s late scratch. However, Brady is not wearing a glove, as previously reported, which gives me confidence that my New England pick will turn out to be correct. Granted, the sharps are on the Jaguars at +9 and +8, but this line is way too low. This spread should be closer to New England -13. I’m still worried about a Blake Bortles back-door touchdown, but I’m going to keep this on four units.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Slight lean on the Patriots.

Percentage of money on New England: 63% (97,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

Jaguars are 34-67 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Patriots are 38-16 ATS in December & January home games since 2000.

Tom Brady is 221-68 as a starter (164-112 ATS).

Tom Brady is 25-9 in the playoffs (17-17 ATS).

Tom Brady is 34-34 ATS as a home favorite of -9 or more (23-27 ATS since November 2007).

Bill Belichick is 17-10 ATS with extra rest.

Opening Line: Patriots -8.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: .

Week 20 NFL Pick: Patriots 31, Jaguars 17
Patriots -7.5 (4 Units) — Incorrect; -$440
Over 46 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Patriots 24, Jaguars 20

Minnesota Vikings (14-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)
Line: Vikings by 3. Total: 39.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Vikings -6.
Sunday, Jan. 7, 4:40 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Vikings.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started six years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Aaron Hernandez, Tom Brady and Walter White. I’ll have new answers to Spam Mails here, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers!

Anyway, if you’re unaware of this, you can publish your own articles on this Web site and have them promoted via Twitter, Facebook and this page! Check out our Open Rant feature, where articles get promoted all the time. Some readers’ articles have gotten more than 3,000 views, so if you want to get your opinion heard, here’s a great way for you to do so!

Some recent Open Rant articles:

Five Quarterbacks Going in the First Round

2016 NFL Re-Draft

2013 NFL Re-Draft

If you want to create NFL Mock Drafts and NBA Mock Drafts, we have you covered as well. Check out the Mock Draft Builder. Some mocks on here have gotten more than 6,000 views!

Some featured NFL Mock Drafts in the MDB:

Grizzly Mock Draft

SwaggyPeter18 Mock Draft

JohnnyPipes75 Mock Draft

Emmitt on the Brink Season 10 is now complete. Real Emmitt was trapped in the evil dimension. Could he escape and vanquish Evil Emmitt, who has been causing mayhem in the real world?

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is Crappy Italian Restaurant.

This week on FOX, we’re going to have some Joe Buck and Troy Aikman calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, and aloof people like Dan Fouts. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the great city of Philadelphia, where my Philadelphia Eagles will play the Minnesota Twins for a chance to go to the Super Game! Guys, I have something special planned for today, but first, let’s talk about how great Nick Foles is. I still have all my old Nick Foles posters and bobble heads from 2013, and I put them on display in my room for all my friends to see, and they would’ve been so jealous if they weren’t busy enough to hang out with me. What a crazy coincidence that all three of my best friends, including Natalie Portman, had to take out the trash instead of hang out with me.

Emmitt: Trash, maybe your friend live in trash like Oscars the Grouch on the TV show Sesame Seed. He real angry, he a, what the word that mean angry that begin with the number “G” and end in the number “CH?” My mindfulness not real good right now.

Herm: GROUCH! HE MEANS GROUCH! HE MEANT TO SAY GROUCH! YOU KNOW WHO’S A GROUCH!? THE MAN WHOSE BACKSIDE I TRIED TO INSERT KIELBASA INTO! THAT’S RIGHT! HERM’S INSERTING KIELBASAS! INTO 100-PERCENT USDA MEN! WAIT, WHAT!? HERM DIDN’T DO THAT! WHY’S HERM SPEAKING LIKE MILLEN!? WHY’S HERM TURNING INTO MILLEN!? WHAT’S HAPPENING TO HERM!? WHAT’S HAPPENING!? WHAT’S… uhh… umm…

Millen: Herman, what is the meaning of this? If you steal any of my 100-percent USDA Men, there will be hell to pay!

Reilly: Will you idiots shut up, already? You’re ruining this special day. Not only is it the Eagles’ turn to go to the Super Game, but it’s also my new daddy Jay Cutler’s bachelor party! New daddy, as your best man, welcome to your bachelor party! It’s the Eagles game, and we’re going to watch it together!

Jay Cutler: That’s fine, I guess.

Tollefson: Bachelor party!? Did someone say bachelor party!? Be right back!

Reilly: New daddy Jay Cutler, I know mother made me your best man, but I know this is going to be the greatest bachelor party ever because we can watch the Eagles together!

Jay Cutler: Oh, OK.

Fouts: And here’s what he means by best man. First, let’s begin with the second word. You usually don’t begin with second words because second words are second, and first words are first, but in this case, the second word is most important because we’re talking about a man. This is quite different than woman, which is the same as a man, except for the letters “W” and “O” at the beginning. Then, let’s look at the first word, which is best. This is the opposite of worst. If we were talking about worst man, we would be discussing the worst man. But we’re not talking about the worst man. We’re not talking about the fifth-best man, either. Or the eighth-best man. We’re talking about the best man, who is clearly the best.

Wolfley: DAN, WHEN I GOT MARRIED, I DIDN’T HAVE A BEST MAN. IN MY CULTURE, YOU BRING YOUR WORST MAN TO YOUR WEDDING SO THAT YOU LOOK GOOD STANDING NEXT TO HIM. I ASKED KEVIN REILLY TO BE MY WORST MAN BUT HIS MOTHER SAID IT WAS TOO DANGEROUS TO GO.

Reilly: Mother said that the event was a fire hazard and it was past my bed time! Anyway, what’s most important is new daddy Jay Cutler. New daddy Jay Cutler, are you having a great time at your bachelor party!?

Jay Cutler: I guess, I dunno.

Tollefson: I’m back, bi***es! And look what I brought with me: strippers for Jay’s bachelor party! Yeah! Only, these aren’t real strippers; they are women I had chained up in my basement, but they can strip if you command them to. Strip, women!

Reilly: No, Tolly, you’re ruining everything! New daddy Jay Cutler doesn’t like women except for mother! Isn’t that right, new daddy Jay Cutler!?

Jay Cutler: Meh.

Charles Davis: Kevin, looks like your bachelor party sucks, Kevin. Let’s talk about ways you could’ve improved your bachelor party, Kevin. Let’s… ackkkk.. Kevin… accckkkkk… pepperon… AACCCCKKKKK…

Reilly: HOW DARE YOU INSULT MY BACHELOR PARTY FOR NEW DADDY JAY CUTLER! I WILL STRANGLE YOU TO DEATH, SCUM!!! We’ll be back after this!

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: We saw two usually poor quarterbacks step up last week. Blake Bortles threw all over Pittsburgh’s horrible defense, while Nick Foles also had lots of success versus Atlanta. He made several terrible throws in the early stages of the game, but settled in and connected on some fierce checkdowns to his targets while his running game pummeled a very soft Falcon defense.

The problem for Foles here is that he’ll have to battle Minnesota instead of Atlanta. The Falcons were soft, but the Vikings won’t play that way. They have the best defense in the NFC. Sure, they had trouble in the fourth quarter this past Sunday, but they were battling one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. Foles would be worse than Brees if Brees were throwing left-handed, so I can’t see Philadelphia dissecting the Vikings aerially like the Saints did, especially with the colossal mismatch the Vikings have on the left side, as Everson Griffen will abuse beleaguered backup tackle Halapoulivaati Vaitai.

The Eagles rammed the ball down Atlanta’s throat, but doing so against Minnesota won’t work. The Vikings, unlike the Falcons, are tremendous at stopping opposing ground attacks. The Saints, who run the ball better than almost anyone, had very little success on the ground against the Vikings.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The Eagles won’t have much (or any) success scoring against the Vikings, so their defense will have to pitch a shutout. The stop unit was awesome against the Falcons, restricting Matt Ryan to just 10 points.

The Vikings obviously don’t have a quarterback as talented as Matt Ryan, or an All-Pro receiver like Julio Jones, but both Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen have been awesome this year. They’ve come up clutch in so many third-down situations, and so has tight end Kyle Rudolph. Case Keenum, meanwhile, can break down defenses by scrambling for a couple of first downs, and he has also been precise when he’s needed to be on third down. The Vikings won’t move the ball consistently against the Eagles, but I think they’ll put together enough drives to give them the win.

I actually think Minnesota would be more consistent had the team not suffered a key injury on the offensive line. Nick Eason going down in Week 16 has hurt, as it forced right tackle Mike Remmers to move to guard. New right tackle Rashod Hill has been abused, and Brandon Graham will have a tremendous performance as a result.

RECAP: The one thing I haven’t talked about yet is Minnesota’s terrific coaching. While the Falcons were coached poorly, the Vikings will devise a great game plan and execute it perfectly, just as they have all year. There’s a reason Mike Zimmer is 44-19 against the spread as head coach of the Vikings.

With that in mind, I love the Vikings at -3, even if I have to pay -120 juice (the difference between -3 and -3.5 is about 15 cents on the dollar, so -3 -125 and -3.5 would be the same.) They have big advantages in two facets of this game. Their coaching is so much better than Philadelphia’s, and their defense will disrupt anything the Eagles try to do. While their offense doesn’t match up well, I think there’s a greater disparity between their defense and Philadelphia’s scoring attack, as they at least have some play-makers on offense.

This spread is way too small, anyway. I made this Minnesota -6, personally, but I could be talked into -6.5, or even -7. First of all, the Falcons were -3 at Philadelphia, and the Vikings are much better than Atlanta. Second, there’s no way there’s just a six-point difference between the Vikings and Carson Wentz-less Eagles. Minnesota is the best team in the NFL not named the Patriots, while the Eagles are just sub par without Wentz. That’s at least a nine-point disparity. And if you don’t think the Eagles are just sub par without Wentz, recall that they barely beat the Giants and Raiders with Foles as their quarterback. The Eagles have feasted on weak opponents for most of this season, but I still considered them great because of Wentz. That’s not the case now because Foles is far worse than Wentz.

I expect Zimmer’s great game plan to force Foles into numerous turnovers, and the Vikings should win this game by 6-14 points. I love them in this spot, and if we were getting a clean -3, I’d consider them as my January NFL Pick of the Month. Still, this is good enough for five units.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I said that I’d consider the Vikings as my Pick of the Month with a clean -3, and that’s what’s available now (actually -3 -105 at 5Dimes). I think I’m going to wait a bit until making it official, but I’m thinking that this will be my January NFL Pick of the Month. I’m curious, however, if getting -2.5 is possible. Pinnacle and Westgate have the Vikings available at -3 +100, and there’s some sharp money coming in on Philadelphia. I’m not sure why, as the Vikings are clearly the better team, and it’s looking like they’ll have Andrew Sendejo back from concussion.

SATURDAY NOTES: While I’m less confident in the Patriots, I’m more confident in the Vikings. I liked them a lot at -3.5, but -3 is so much more appealing, especially at +100 juice, which is available at BetUS and the Westgate. Andrew Sendejo and Adam Thielen sound like they’re going to play, which is bad news for a Philadelphia team that has a worse offense, defense and coaching staff in this matchup. Once again, it’s not correct for the Vikings to be favored by only three points. Atlanta was a field-goal favorite in Philadelphia, and Minnesota is so much better than the Falcons. Plus, the weather is going to be in the low-to-mid 40s with barely any wind, so that won’t be a factor for the dome team. I don’t know if I’ll like a side in the Super Bowl more than this, so I’m making this my January NFL Pick of the Month.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Minnesota is still my January NFL Pick of the Month. There’s sharp money coming in on the Eagles, but I’m confident the Vikings will cover this inaccurate spread. The best line I see for U.S. citizens is Minnesota -3 -105 at BetUS and 5Dimes (Pinnacle has it at -3 +102). If you hate my January NFL Pick of the Month and like the Eagles instead, I would go with +3.5 -120 at Bovada.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 57% (74,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Vikings.

Mike Zimmer is 44-19 ATS as head coach of the Vikings.

Opening Line: Vikings -3.

Opening Total: 38.

Weather: .

Week 20 NFL Pick: Vikings 27, Eagles 13
Vikings -3 -105 (8 Units – January NFL Pick of the Month) — Incorrect; -$840
Over 39 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Eagles 38, Vikings 7

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Props to be posted here

NFL Picks - Nov. 20

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 12, 2024): 11-3 (+$2,020)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-1 (+$580)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-0 (+$1,400)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 12, 2024): 6-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 12, 2024): +$905

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 89-82-6, 52.0% (-$2,545)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 22-26-1, 45.8% (-$600)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-17, 51.4% (-$155)
2024 Season Over-Under: 82-82-2, 50.0% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$740

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)