NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 11, 2019

NFL Picks (Preseason 2019): 14-6 (+$1,535)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2019): 5-10-1 (-$515)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2019): 10-6 (+$140)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2019): 10-6 (+$1,365)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2019): 12-3 (+$1,240)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2019): 8-7 (+$1,665)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2019): 9-5 (+$2,505)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2019): 8-6 (+$1,130)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2019): 8-7 (+$435)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2019): 3-9-1 (-$770)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2019): 8-5 (+$1,460)

NFL Picks (2019): 95-70-2 (+$10,190)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

---

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 17, 11:30 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 11 NFL Picks – Late Games







Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4) at Cleveland Browns (3-6)
Line: Browns by 3. Total: 41.5.
Thursday, Nov. 14, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

Week 10 Recap: Week 10 ended poorly, thanks to Jason Garrett’s incompetence and Emmanuel Sanders’ injury. Nevertheless, we finished 8-5 (+$1,460), meaning we’ve crossed five figures for the first time in this Web site’s history! We’re now 95-70-2 (+$10,190) for the year, which is awesome. Let’s keep it rolling in Week 11!

By the way, if you want to support this site, check out my new book!



You can buy A Safety and a Field Goal here.

In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: It’ll be fun to watch the Browns once they get a real football coach. Freddie Kitchens is utterly atrocious, as evidenced by his team’s inability to punch the ball into the end zone on a dozen opportunities at the goal line versus the Bills. Everything was either a Nick Chubb run or a fade to Odell Beckham Jr. It was if Kitchens had just two options in his playbook.

Granted, this came against a stout Buffalo defense, but the Steelers are even better on this side of the ball. Like the Bills, the Steelers defend the pass well, but they also stop the run much better than Buffalo does. Chubb did well in between the 20s last week, but he’ll have issues finding running room versus Pittsburgh’s excellent defensive front.

Meanwhile, the Steelers have a terrific pass rush, as T.J. Watt and Bud Dupree have an excellent mismatch against Cleveland’s poor tackles. Baker Mayfield really struggles when faced with lots of pressure, and he won’t have much success targeting Beckham because of Joe Haden’s coverage.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Steelers won’t have much success moving the chains either. The Browns are solid against the run, and they’ve gotten all of their secondary players back from injury. Of course, none of that would matter all that much if Pittsburgh had stellar quarterback play; not the struggling Mason Rudolph.

It’s helped Rudolph that he’s been well protected, but because of an injury at left guard, the Steelers had to move Matt Feiler to that spot and start Chukwama Okorafor at right tackle last week. Okorafor is in for a world of trouble if he has to start this Thursday because he’ll be going up against Myles Garrett. Rudolph is used to having lots of time in the pocket, that will change if the Steelers have to use this formation again.

Meanwhile, it’ll be difficult for the Pittsburgh receivers to get open, as the Browns have both of their talented cornerbacks on the field. The Steelers will have to establish the run, so it’s a good thing that James Conner is due back this week.

RECAP: I’ve been betting on the Steelers heavily, as I’ve been listed them as underrated ever since Week 3. Things have changed now that they’re above .500. People put way too much stock into teams’ records, so a 5-4 Pittsburgh squad is now considered good by simpleton ESPN viewers. That would explain all of the public action on the Steelers, as casual bettors are ignoring the fact that almost all of Pittsburgh’s success has come at home. Did you know that the Steelers have played just one road game since Week 3, and that was at the Chargers, where there were more Pittsburgh fans in the stands than Charger supporters? I bet casual bettors are not aware of that.

Because the Steelers are a public dog, the Browns look like a solid play. These teams are two wins apart, but they’re effectively the same-caliber squad. I rate the Steelers and Browns evenly, which means this line should be Cleveland -3. That’s exactly what the advance spread was, yet it has moved down to -2.5 because the Steelers are now 5-4.

The most likely result of this game is the Browns winning by three, so I’m inclined to bet the host, especially given that we’re able to fade a public dog. If the wager percentage on Pittsburgh increases, I’ll bump this up from two to three units.

Our Week 11 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: James Conner will play, and yet the sharp money is still on the Browns. The public, conversely, likes the Steelers. I still think Cleveland is a nice play, as the most likely result is the Browns winning by three. Unfortunately, this line has moved to -3 because of professional money. As a result, I’m most likely going to be on the Browns for two units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I was waiting for this spread to get to -2.5 -110 – it was always -2.5 -115 or -120 – but it never got there. Instead, the sharps bet the Browns up to -3. I still like the Browns, but -3 is far less appealing than -2.5. I’m going to drop the unit count to two because of the spread change. The best spread available is Cleveland -3 +100 at Bovada.




The Motivation. Edge: Browns.
The Steelers are a massive public dog.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Browns -3.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Browns -3.
Computer Model: Steelers -1.
DVOA Spread: Pick.


The Vegas. Edge: Browns.
No surprise that people are all over the Steelers.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 65% (25,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

History: Steelers have won 33 of the last 37 meetings excluding a 2018 tie.

Opening Line: Browns -2.5.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: .

Week 11 NFL Pick: Browns 20, Steelers 13
Browns -3 +100 (2 Units) – Bovada — Correct; +$200
Under 41.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Browns 21, Steelers 7

---

Dallas Cowboys (5-4) at Detroit Lions (3-5-1)
Line: Cowboys by 7. Total: 46.5.
Sunday, Nov. 17, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Cowboys.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

DETROIT OFFENSE: There’s no spread posted yet because Matthew Stafford’s status is unknown. It’s sounding like Stafford won’t play this week, but things can obviously change.

Assuming Stafford sits out, I don’t see how the Lions will move the chains with any sort of consistency. Jeff Dreadful, I mean, Jeff Driskel stinks, and the Cowboys will be able to take away one of his receivers – presumably Kenny Golladay – with Byron Jones. Driskel will be under heavy pressure if right tackle Ricky Wagner, who suffered an injury versus the Bears, isn’t around to block DeMarcus Lawrence.

The Cowboys showed a weakness to the run last week, as they were incapable of stopping Dalvin Cook. The Lions don’t run the ball nearly as well, as there’s quite the difference between Cook and J.D. McKissic. I can’t see McKissic doing much on the ground, though he’ll pick up some receiving yardage to help his PPR owners.

DALLAS OFFENSE: Jason Garrett is a buffoon. He cost his team a victory over the Vikings by running the ball deep in Minnesota territory when Dak Prescott had the Vikings’ horrible secondary on its heels. Minnesota puts the clamps on the run very well and has a pass-funnel defense, so any smart coach would have kept the ball in Prescott’s hands. Garrett had other plans, as Ezekiel Elliott was stuffed on consecutive plays.

Garrett will be faced with the same decision against the Lions, though this game probably won’t be close if Driskel starts. The Lions also have a pass-funnel defense, as their secondary is atrocious. They have some injuries, while the trade of a talented safety hasn’t helped matters. They also struggle to apply pressure on the quarterback, which will be a major problem in this matchup because Dak Prescott is well protected.

Prescott should be able to shred the Lions with ease. He’ll need to, as Elliott won’t have great success on the ground. His matchup is a bit better than it was Sunday night, but this should once again be a Prescott game.

RECAP: I’m making this pick with the assumption that Stafford will be sidelined once again. In that case, I expect the Cowboys to be favored by six or so.

I like Dallas at that price, but I’m not sure I’ll be placing a wager on it. Driskel is terrible and should be faded, but the Cowboys have to battle the Patriots next week, so their focus could be lacking.

I’ll have a definitive pick when the spread is posted. Check back, or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s still no spread available, though the Supercontest lists Dallas -6.5. That assumes Matthew Stafford won’t play, and he didn’t practice Wednesday or Thursday.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Cowboys have opened as 6.5-point road favorites, and the line has since moved to -7. I’d be interested in betting them if I didn’t think there was a chance they’d be looking past this game with New England on the horizon. Also, the Cowboys could be down two starting offensive linemen with Connor Williams out and La’el Collins questionable after barely practicing all week. I’ll pick Dallas, but I’ll pass on betting this contest.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I kind of wish I had bet the Cowboys for a small amount when this spread was lower than -7. It’s now -7.5 in some books, as the public is pounding Dallas with no pushback from the sharps. I wouldn’t bet Dallas at this number because the team could be flat as it looks ahead to New England. It’s worth noting that the Cowboys will be down just one offensive lineman, so that’s not a concern.


The Motivation. Edge: Lions.
The Cowbous have to battle the Patriots next.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cowboys -6.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -3.
Computer Model: Cowboys -5.
DVOA Spread: Cowboys -2.5.


The Vegas. Edge: Lions.
No one wants to bet on Jeff Dreadful.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 83% (15,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: None.

The underdog is 89-60 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.

Lions are 6-16 ATS as underdogs of 6 or more since 2011.

Opening Line: Cowboys -6.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: .

Week 11 NFL Pick: Cowboys 27, Lions 17
Cowboys -7 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 46.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Cowboys 35, Lions 27

---

New Orleans Saints (7-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-6)
Line: Saints by 6. Total: 50.5.
Sunday, Nov. 17, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Buccaneers.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 38-44-3 last season, a year that was pretty painful for the books. Perhaps the pendulum will swing the other way…

Here were the teams getting the most bets this week:

Chiefs -6

Bills +2.5

Giants -2.5

Chargers -1

Rams -4

The books absolutely destroyed the public in Weeks 9 and 10. All of the public sides failed to cover in Week 10. I guess many bettors won’t be buying their kids Christmas presents this year – unless they’ve been reading WalterFootball.com! Lopsided bets are now 20-27 ATS on the year.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Patriots -3.5

Cardinals +13.5

Raiders -10.5

Chiefs -4

Steelers +2.5

Ravens -4

None of these are a surprise, except for the Cardinals. I’m not sure what that’s all about.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: There’s something wrong with Drew Brees. He had a dream matchup against one of the worst pass defenses in the league, at home, and yet produced nine points. I initially chalked this up to overall team lethargy, but that was before I watched the Saints-Falcons game a second time. That’s when I caught this:



Brees was wincing as he was grabbing his ribs in apparent pain in the second quarter. This occurred at the 10:20 mark of the second frame, for those of you who want to see it for yourselves. Perhaps this is nothing, and Brees is fine, but when is the last time Brees scored just nine points at home against one of the worst defenses in the NFL?

If Brees is hindered by this injury, the Saints are going to have major problems moving the chains. There’s no way the Saints are going to be able to run the ball. Not only is Alvin Kamara’s workload limited; he’ll be battling the league’s top run defense. The Buccaneers have stymied Christian McCaffrey twice, thanks to Vita Vea and Ndamukong Suh, so Brees will have to do all of the work if Kamara and Latavius Murray are repeatedly stuffed at the line of scrimmage. Tampa’s secondary stinks, but does it matter if Brees is hurt and can’t take advantage of it?

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Saints’ injury issues don’t end with just the offense. Top cornerback Marshon Lattimore got hurt as well last week, and it sounds like he’ll miss this game. That’s huge news, as the Saints were able to erase Mike Evans with Lattimore’s great coverage during the first meeting between these teams. The Saints were already poor against No. 2 receivers, so that means Evans should go off if Lattimore is absent.

This will spell trouble for New Orleans, considering that Chris Godwin was dominant in the first meeting against the Saints, catching seven passes for 125 yards and two touchdowns. The Saints will once again have issues defending an elite slot receiver, and they’ll also have to worry about Ronald Jones leaking out of the backfield as a receiving back. The Buccaneers used Jones in that role last week, and it worked rather well, so they should continue to utilize him in that regard.

Speaking of Jones, I don’t expect him to run all that well. The Saints are one of the most dominant teams at stopping the rush, so he’ll need to do his damage as a receiver out of the backfield.

RECAP: If I knew for a fact that Brees wouldn’t be himself because of his apparent rib injury, I’d consider the Buccaneers as my November NFL Pick of the Month, as they satisfy all of the elements I analyze when handicapping games…

Matchup: This favors the Buccaneers heavily if Brees has a rib injury. Fading hobbled quarterbacks has been a very lucrative strategy, as the spread doesn’t factor in that they are not 100 percent. I also mentioned Lattimore’s injury, which is huge.

Motivation: The Buccaneers could treat this game as if it were their Super Bowl. Meanwhile, the Saints have already beaten Tampa and are high road favorites with a battle against the Panthers on the horizon. I’ve mentioned before that I love betting on elite quarterbacks coming off a loss, but that doesn’t apply here because A) Brees is probably hurt, and B) the Saints are a large road favorite. The last time Brees came off a loss like this and was a big road favorite was last year at this very same location. The Saints won by 14, but trailed at halftime and looked pretty sluggish overall.

Spread: I’ve downgraded the Saints in the wake of their Atlanta defeat. They lost to the Falcons at home by the score of 26-9. Something is wrong. Had the Saints just overlooked Atlanta, the score would have been 26-23, or something. Scoring just nine points against the Falcons in the Superdome signals a red flag. With that in mind, my projected spread is Pick, so we’re getting tons of value with the home dog.

Vegas: As you might suspect, the public is pounding the Saints. Meanwhile, this spread has dropped from +6 to +5.5 in most books. Pinnacle, the sharpest book online, has +5 posted.

I’m going to lock this in now, just in case we lose +6 permanently. Six is a very important number in the NFL, so it’s important that we get it. If this spread ends up rising, so be it. I’d rather be safe than sorry. You can currently find Tampa Bay +6 at 5Dimes and Bovada.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I locked this in at +6 on Tuesday. That spread wasn’t available for a while, but some +6 -115s have popped up. I’m wondering if this has anything to do with Marshon Lattimore’s status, but I can’t find anything.

SATURDAY NOTES: The +6 -115s I referenced on Thursday are gone. That’s probably because Marshon Lattimore has been ruled out. I still love Tampa.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have continued to bet the Saints, who are now down to +5 in most books. There are still some +5.5s available (Bookmaker, Bovada). I’m happy with the +6 we got back on Tuesday.


The Motivation. Edge: Buccaneers.
The Saints are a veteran team, playing as a high favorite over an opponent they’ve already beaten. They have a tougher game next week versus Carolina. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, will treat this like their Super Bowl.


The Spread. Edge: Buccaneers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Pick.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Saints -4.5.
Computer Model: Saints -9.
DVOA Spread: Saints -1.


The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.
The public will be on the Saints, but not by as much as I thought they’d be.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 65% (20,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Saints.

History: Saints have won 12 of the last 16 meetings.

Road Team is 94-59 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Drew Brees is 43-28 ATS after a loss with the Saints.

Saints are 10-16 ATS as road favorites of 4 or more since 2010.

Buccaneers are 24-53 ATS at home in the previous 77 instances.

Buccaneers are 9-26 ATS as a home underdog since 2009.

Opening Line: Saints -6.

Opening Total: 51.

Weather: Sunny, 67 degrees. Light wind.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Buccaneers 24, Saints 21
Buccaneers +6 (5 Units) – 5Dimes/Bovada — Incorrect; -$550
Buccaneers +200 (0.5 Units) – BetUS — Incorrect; -$50
Under 50.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Saints 34, Buccaneers 17

---

Atlanta Falcons (2-7) at Carolina Panthers (5-4)
Line: Panthers by 4. Total: 48.
Sunday, Nov. 17, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Panthers.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. Here’s some hate mail from last week:



I didn’t even have to respond to this because the Hmmm reply was perfect. Way to call out people as pathetic, all while posting on the same comment board as everyone else! What an idiot.

Here’s someone who addressed just me:



I don’t know what to make of this. He calls me Fat Walter, which I consider a compliment because I’m obese. He then says “Giants over cowgirls,” which was a correct side that just didn’t hit. I’m not sure what this guy is thinking, but at least he’s not as much of a moron as the first guy.

There is some hate in the NFL Power Rankings:



Speaking of idiots, this guy didn’t bother to do research before posting what he thought were facts when trying to defend his team. Dude, it’s called Google. All you have to do is type.

This guy might be the most pathetic of all:



What a hero this guy is. He’s known for 20 years that I have no knowledge of the sport, yet he’s been tracking me over these past couple of decades. I appreciate your dedication!

ATLANTA OFFENSE: The Falcons did a great job of sitting on the ball and winning the time-of-possession battle against the Saints. It helped that Drew Brees was nursing an apparent rib injury, but Atlanta had a surprising performance overall from its scoring unit.

This could prove to be a very difficult matchup for the Falcons, however. The Panthers are excellent against the pass, as they apply tons of pressure on the quarterback and defend well in the secondary, as long as cornerback James Bradberry is healthy. The Falcons, conversely, don’t block well and will likely be down two of their better weapons. Both Devonta Freeman and Austin Hooper suffered injuries at New Orleans, which is a big deal because they’re Matt Ryan’s most trusted intermediate targets. Ryan has had to throw to Freeman and Hooper frequently this year because his poor offensive line hasn’t helped up very well. I can’t imagine it doing so versus the Panthers.

Freeman’s absence will also adversely impact the ground attack. The Panthers have a run-funnel defense, as they’ve struggled versus the rush since losing Kawann Short. Freeman’s absence, however, means that the Falcons will have to turn to third-string runner Brian Hill, which isn’t ideal.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: While the Falcons will attempt to establish Hill on the ground, their defense will be trying to figure out how to contain Christian McCaffrey. The Falcons actually defend the run well, but stopping McCaffrey is a different animal, especially when considering that McCaffrey is such a massive threat as a receiver out of the backfield.

The Falcons have major issues stopping the pass in general. This wasn’t the case last week when they limited Drew Brees to just nine points, but as discussed above, Brees was dealing with a rib injury that clearly hindered him. Kyle Allen has played well in positive matchups this year, and he should have no problem connecting with D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel and Greg Olsen for considerable gains. Moore has especially emerged as a potent threat.

Atlanta will need to pressure Allen heavily to ease pressure off its horrific, injury-ravaged secondary. It sacked Brees six times last week, but I’m not sure if that will happen again unless Allen also gets hurt.

RECAP: This is a difficult game to handicap. On one hand, Atlanta’s victory in New Orleans has created some good line value on the Panthers. This spread was Carolina -6.5 on the advance line, and I made it -8. Yet, this spread dropped to -5.5, moving across the key number of six, which is a big deal.

On the other hand, we’re getting more than a field goal with one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL. It’s no coincidence that Ryan has a high covering rate when getting lots of points against non-elite quarterbacks.

As we saw Monday night, it’s best to just not overthink things and pick a terrific quarterback when he’s an underdog of more than a field goal. Thus, I’m going to side with the Falcons, but the poor line value will keep me from betting this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Falcons will be without Devonta Freeman and Austin Hooper, which might lower their chance of getting a back-door touchdown. I’d still be worried about Matt Ryan scoring to cover at the very end. Also, it looks like the sharps are pounding Atlanta, which is the reason for this spread dropping. I may end up betting a little on the Falcons.

SATURDAY NOTES: The focus is on Devonta Freeman and Austin Hooper being out, but the Panthers have some injury concerns in their secondary. Ross Cockrell is out, while Donte Jackson and James Bradberry are banged up, though they are expected to play. I wonder if that’s the reason why the sharps bet the Falcons down at the end of the week. I’m going to bet a unit or two on the Falcons.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have been on the Falcons all week, and that hasn’t changed Sunday morning. There’s still been professional betting action on Atlanta +4, as the number is down to +3.5 in some books. The Falcons are still +4 -110 at BetUS, so I’ll bet them for two units at that price.


The Motivation. Edge: None.
The Panthers are going up against the Saints next week, but the Falcons are coming off their Super Bowl win.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Panthers -8.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Panthers -6.5.
Computer Model: Panthers -10.
DVOA Spread: Panthers -6.5.


The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.
Equal action early, but the money has been coming in on the Panthers lately.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 63% (17,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Falcons.

History: Falcons have won 7 of the last 10 meetings.

Matt Ryan is 12-7 ATS as an underdog of 6+ since his second season.

Opening Line: Panthers -7.

Opening Total: 54.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 51 degrees. Light wind.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Panthers 30, Falcons 27
Falcons +4 (2 Units) – BetUS — Correct; +$200
Over 48 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Falcns 29, Panthers 3

---

Jacksonville Jaguars (4-5) at Indianapolis Colts (5-4)
Line: Colts by 2.5. Total: 42.5.
Sunday, Nov. 17, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

Contest Announcement time!

Our weekly fantasy football contest has returned. It’s like DFS, but weekly and free, and there are cash prizes! There’s no reason not to enter, and you can submit up to five lineups per week! Click the link here for our new Weekly Fantasy Football Contest!

Our Survivor Contest has returned as well. It’s free to enter, and you can win $350!

We’re partnered with Draft Kings this year. Sign up at Draft Kings and use promo code “Walterfootball” for a bonus with your first deposit. Seriously, it’s free money – go sign up!

And finally, here’s our NFL Picks Contest, which is free and contains cash prizes.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Nick Foles is finally back from his Week 1 injury. He’ll be an upgrade over Gardner Minshew as far as taking care of the ball is concerned. Minshew made some highlight-reel plays, but was very sloppy with the football, especially in regard to fumbling. He crushed his team with horrible mistakes against the Texans in London.

Minshew, however, had mobility, which was important, considering the state of Jacksonville’s offensive line. The Jaguars don’t block well, which will be a problem against Indianapolis’ pass rush. Justin Houston, in particular, will have success against inept left tackle Cam Robinson. Thus, Foles may not have the time he needs to exploit the liabilities the Colts have in their secondary.

The Jaguars will need to establish Leonard Fournette to take pressure off Foles. The problem in that regard is that the Colts have improved markedly against the run ever since getting back Darius Leonard from injury. Leonard is one of the top linebackers in the NFL, so his presence has made all the difference in the world.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Most sportsbooks don’t have a spread posted on this game because Jacoby Brissett’s status is up in the air. A week ago, the sportsbooks didn’t seem to care about this because Brian Hoyer played very well against a stellar Pittsburgh defense. However, Hoyer was exposed this past week against the dreadful Dolphins. He single-handedly gave the game away with numerous mistakes.

It would be difficult to trust Hoyer in a more-difficult matchup. Brissett, on the other hand, would give the Colts a chance, assuming he’s healthy. That, of course, is far from a guarantee. It also hurts that Brissett might be down his top two receivers again, as T.Y. Hilton is unlikely to play. There’s a chance Devin Funchess could return, as he’s set to practice this week for the first time during the regular season. Funchess’ presence would be a huge boon to Indianapolis’ offense, though it’s unclear if he’ll be 100 percent.

With downgraded pass-catching options, the Colts are seeing teams focus more on Marlon Mack, which has caused the talented back to be limited in recent weeks. That figures to be the case again, as the Jaguars have played better versus ground attacks since being steamrolled by Christian McCaffrey earlier in the season.

RECAP: It’s difficult to post a pick on this game because we don’t know who will start for the Colts. Also, most sportsbooks don’t have a spread listed. There are some Indianapolis -3 lines out there, including on 5Dimes.

I’m inclined to take the Jaguars at +3. I hate their offensive line, but they’ll at least have a healthy, viable NFL quarterback under center. Conversely, Hoyer can’t be trusted, while Brissett may not be quite himself. Depending on what happens with Indianapolis’ quarterbacking situation, I may end up betting the Jaguars if Hilton and Funchess are both sidelined again.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Jacoby Brissett will start Week 11. The Colts have opened as three-point favorites, which is odd. Would they be home dogs with Brian Hoyer? I feel as though this spread should be higher, but then again, we don’t know if Brissett will be 100 percent, so I probably won’t be betting this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: I can’t make much sense of this game. I can make strong arguments for either team. It’s so close that I was going with the Jaguars at +3, but with the spread dropping half of a point, I’m going to side with Indianapolis at -2.5 because the most likely result of this contest is the Colts winning by three.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m still not betting this game. The sharps wagered on the Jaguars at +3, but haven’t touched them at +2.5. Once again, I think the most likely result of this game is Indianapolis winning by three, so I’d take the Colts at -2.5.


The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Colts -4.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Colts -3.5.
Computer Model: Colts -3.
DVOA Spread: Colts -2.5.


The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 53% (13,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: None.

History: 21 of the last 33 meetings decided by 8 points or fewer (Colts 8-4 SU, 6-6 ATS last 12).

Opening Line: Colts -3.5.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Dome.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Colts 23, Jaguars 20
Colts -2.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 42.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Colts 33, Jaguars 13

---

Denver Broncos (3-6) at Minnesota Vikings (7-3)
Line: Vikings by 10. Total: 40.5.
Sunday, Nov. 17, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Vikings.

I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. There’s been talk about which NFL coach would be fired next, and it seems as though the consensus is Dan Quinn. I would agree with that, though I’m not with the consensus that it’ll happen before the season is complete.

I saw that some people were shocked that Quinn wasn’t fired during the bye week, but I was confused about why that would happen so soon. What’s the point in firing Quinn now? He took the Falcons to a Super Bowl and had other successful seasons. His team has been ravaged by injuries over the past couple of seasons, so it’s not entirely his fault that Atlanta has regressed. I’m all for finding a better solution, but that’s not going to occur now. It’ll happen at the end of the year when good coaches will be available for hire, so there’s really no benefit in canning him now.

I’m glad owner Arthur Blank is allowing Quinn to play out the season. It shows respect to a man who has brought success to his franchise, and Quinn deserves to finish the year out with dignity.

2. Staying in the NFC South, I’ve been asked where I see Teddy Bridgewater playing next year. My favorite destination for him is Chicago. The Bears desperately need to upgrade Mitchell Trubisky, but they don’t have a first-round pick as a result of the Khalil Mack trade (I guess that deal wasn’t so lopsided after all.) Thus, they’ll have to pursue a veteran and perhaps use a second-day selection on a long-term solution.

Plenty of teams need quarterbacks, but Bridgewater stands out to me because he torched Chicago in a blowout victory earlier in the year. The Bears may have been overly impressed with this performance and thus could be more likely to pursue the current Saint backup.

With that in mind, I wouldn’t be very bullish about Bridgewater’s outlook in Chicago. I wouldn’t hate the fit or anything, but it needs to be noted that Bridgewater won’t be arriving with Sean Payton. He’s been coached up greatly by Payton in New Orleans, so it’s reasonable to expect that he won’t perform as well without the future Hall of Fame coach getting the most out of him.

3. I’ve mentioned my dad here the past few entries. Four weeks ago, my dad gave his thoughts on who happens to be the most-hated player in football right now:

Dad: Ezekiel Elliott is the most hated guy in football right now!

Me: Why?

Dad: Because he’s disgusting!

The following week, my dad offered a hot take on Andy Reid during the Chiefs-Broncos game.

Dad: I hate Andy Reid. Everyone hates Andy Reid!

Me: Why?

Dad: Because he looks like a pig.

My dad has now offered his opinions on football-related commercials, namely this one, where Baker Mayfield retrieves lemonade for his girlfriend:



As soon as she asked, “Straw?” my dad got very tilted:

“Oh, you want a straw? How about you put my dick in your mouth!?”

So, I mentioned this last week. I watch Thursday Night Football with my dad at my parents’ house. When I arrived, my mom chided me: “Walt, how could you write that!? You made your father look bad!”

Whoops. Should I not have written that? My mom brought it up to my dad when he got home from work. Rather than being upset, he beamed.

“GOOD!” he exclaimed. “Did anyone react to my comment!? Please tell me someone said something about it!”

Does anyone have any thoughts on my dad’s reaction to the Mayfield commercial? He wants feedback!

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The Vikings looked great Sunday night against the Cowboys. They were able to pound Dalvin Cook down Dallas’ throat, allowing them to get a victory. This prompted many in the media to proclaim that Kirk Cousins was able to win against a good team in primetime, even though he barely had anything to do with the victory.

Cook won’t have as much success running against the Broncos. Denver has played much better versus the run ever since getting gashed by Leonard Fournette earlier in the season, as the team welcomed back some injured players back on the defensive line. It’s hard to imagine Denver completely erasing Cook, given how talented he is, but I don’t see Cook absolutely steamrolling the Broncos like he did to the Cowboys.

As a result, Cousins will actually have to throw this week. Luckily for him, this is not a choking situation, though it isn’t the easiest matchup. Chris Harris Jr. will erase Cousins’ top receiving option, though Cousins should have time in the pocket, as his tackles have protected well this year.

DENVER OFFENSE: Brandon Allen may start again, but there’s a chance second-round rookie Drew Lock could get the nod. Lock will practice this week, so it remains to be seen if he’ll be ready to play.

Either way, it seems unlikely that the Broncos will be able to take advantage of Minnesota’s greatest liability on this side of the ball, which is the secondary. The Vikings’ cornerbacks are abysmal and had no chance of covering any of Dallas’ receivers. I can’t see Minnesota staying with Courtland Sutton, but will either Allen or Lock be able to deliver the ball to him consistently?

The Broncos would love to take the ball out of the hands of Allen or Lock, but that will prove difficult against Minnesota’s stout front. The Vikings are terrific against the run, as we just saw when they stymied Ezekiel Elliott. They won’t have much of an issue stopping Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman.

RECAP: The outcome of this game will be determined by Minnesota’s focus. If the Vikings are fully prepared to battle the Broncos, so they should be able to defeat them easily. Denver won’t be able to take advantage of Minnesota’s lone liability on defense, so this seems like it could be a one-sided affair.

However, the Vikings could be distracted. They might be “smelling themselves – as @FantasyJabber likes to say – because they just beat the Cowboys on national TV. I’d ordinarily consider this an emotionally down spot for the Vikings, but they have a bye coming up, so they could be more focused than usual.

We’ve seen what happens to the Vikings when they’re not fully prepared to play, as they lost outright at home to the Bills in Week 3 last year despite being 16-point favorites. I’m leaning toward them being aloof, so I’m going to side with the Broncos. I don’t think I’ll be betting this game, however, because of Denver’s poor quarterbacking.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Drew Lock or Brandon Allen versus Mike Zimmer seems like such a mismatch. I was thinking about switching my pick to the Vikings. This could get ugly if Minnesota is focused, though that’s not guaranteed to be the case.

SATURDAY NOTES: I thought about changing my pick, but I’m going to stick with the Broncos. With Adam Thielen and Linval Joseph out, perhaps the Broncos will keep this close – though it ultimately will come down to how focused Minnesota will be.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Broncos at +10.5, but not +10. I’m not betting Denver either. I’m not thrilled with Ja’Wuan James being out of the lineup, but that’s not enough to get me to change to Minnesota either.


The Motivation. Edge: None.
The Vikings are coming off a big win at Dallas on national TV, but then again, they have a bye coming up, so they could be focused for this game.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Vikings -13.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Vikings -10.
Computer Model: Vikings -10.
DVOA Spread: Vikings -8.


The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.
It’s surprising that the public isn’t betting the Vikings more after their national TV win.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 69% (13,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Vikings.

Mike Zimmer is 58-30 ATS as head coach of the Vikings.

Vikings are 31-13 ATS at home since 2014.

Opening Line: Vikings -10.5.

Opening Total: 38.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Vikings 24, Broncos 17
Broncos +10 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 40.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Vikins 27, Broncos 23

---

New York Jets (2-7) at Washington Redskins (1-8)
Line: Redskins by 2. Total: 38.
Sunday, Nov. 17, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Redskins.

As with the random NFL notes, I’m going to have all of my Random College Football Notes on one page as well. Oh, and you can find my College Football Picks here.

Random College Football Notes:

1. LSU beat Alabama in a thrilling game, but something that people need to remember is that Tua Tagovailoa was not 100 percent. He was clearly hobbled, as he refrained from running in some usual scrambling situations.

Assuming the Crimson Tide don’t lose another game, I think excluding them from the college football playoff would be a huge mistake. The case could still be made for them to be the best team in college football once Tagovailoa will be completely healthy, which I assume will happen by January. In fact, I think Alabama would beat LSU in a rematch with a 100-percent Tagovailoa.

2. Speaking of LSU, I’ve been asked about Joe Burrow’s outlook for the 2020 NFL Draft. I’ve also seen Burrow being projected first overall in some of our Reader NFL Mock Drafts (where you can make your own mock drafts.)

Burrow is actually not considered a first-round prospect. Charlie Campbell reported that NFL Teams See a Day 2 Ceiling for Joe Burrow. You can check out why via the link. It’s a good read.

Having said that, because teams think Burrow is a second-round prospect, that probably means he’ll be chosen in the mid-first-round range. Teddy Bridgewater, Deshaun Watson and Lamar Jackson are quarterbacks who received second-round grades, yet ended up going in the opening frame because of how desperate teams are for quarterbacks. So, if I were to guess, I’d say Burrow goes on Thursday night, but after Tagovailoa and perhaps even Justin Herbert.

3. Someone in the comments below remakred that my college football notes have been boring lately.

“You need to include more pictures of hot girls,” they said.

If you’re wondering what college football and hot girls have to do with each other, you’ve never lived on a college campus. The thing I miss most about living at Penn State was being surrounded with 30,000 girls my age, many of whom were attractive. I lived on campus for six glorious years, and yet that wasn’t nearly enough.

That said, I don’t know why this individual couldn’t just go elsewhere for pictures of hot girls. If I google “hot Penn State girls,” these are two of the first images that are found:





There you have it. Hot college in the college football section. This could have been avoided by just googling it, but I’m sort of happy I looked it up myself, as it allowed me to re-live my days of being rejected by hot chicks like these.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Sam Darnold must have nabbed some power pellets last week because he gobbled up his ghosts in a victory over the Giants. Of course, this was to be expected, as the Giants have a non-existent pass rush and one of the worst secondaries in the NFL.

The Redskins’ defensive backfield isn’t much better, but they can at least apply pressure on the quarterback via Ryan Kerrigan, Montez Sweat and their talented defensive line. The Jets welcomed back left tackle Kelvin Beachum last week, and he provided a big boost, but New York still has plenty of concerns up front because two starters are out of the lineup. This should give the Redskins a big advantage in the trenches on this side of the ball.

The Redskins also happen to be very difficult to run against because of their excellent front. It’s difficult to see Le’Veon Bell doing much, although it’s not like the Jets utilize him correctly anyway.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The Redskins won’t have much luck running the ball either. They’ll be welcoming Derrius Guice back from injury this week, but not even Saquon Barkley had success against the Jets. New York limited Barkley to just ONE rushing yard in Week 10, which was truly remarkable.

Given that the Jets can take away the thing the Redskins do best offensively, you’d think that this would give them a huge advantage. You’d be right if the Jets’ linebacking corps and secondary weren’t so bad. Thanks to a massive number of injuries in these areas, the Jets have been completely inept at playing the pass. Daniel Jones just had a great game against them, and he didn’t even have a dangerous downfield threat at his disposal like Dwayne Haskins has with Terry McLaurin.

Haskins, meanwhile, won’t see much pressure. The Jets can’t apply heat on the quarterback, so Haskins should have all day to scan the field behind an offensive line that isn’t nearly as bad as it was when Haskins made an appearance against a different New York squad. The Redskins have played much better ever since center Chase Roullier and right guard Brandon Scherff have returned from injury, yet no one has really noticed.

RECAP: A week ago, everyone was so down on the Jets that they were willing to lay three points with the “road favorite” Giants. Now, because they saw the Jets defeat a team they foolishly bet on, they’re willing to wager on the Jets to win outright on the road. OK.

The public is very stupid, if you haven’t realized. Something I’ve learned this year is that you can really take advantage of the public via the injury report, but not just in terms of the players who are hurt. I’m referring to players who will be returning from injury. Everyone remembers the Redskin team that was destroyed by the Bears, Giants and Patriots, but Washington was missing several offensive linemen in those games. The Redskins have been way more competitive since Roullier and Scherff have returned.

This misconception has created great value with the Redskins. Both my projections and the computer model say this line should be Washington -3. Yet, it’s -1, and the public is pounding the hell out of the Jets.

I love the Redskins this week. We’re getting great value by fading a public dog, which is just music to my ears. This should be a four-unit wager at the very least.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Jets are still a major public dog, so the Redskins look very appealing. It seems as though the spread is rising as a result of some sharp money, but nothing too crazy.

SATURDAY NOTES: It’s staggering how many people are betting on the Jets without even getting +3. The Redskins seem like a great play this week.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This is a sharps/public dichotomy, where the public has pounded the Jets, and yet the line has risen because of professional action on the Redskins. This line is -2.5 in all books right now, though the juice on that number is -105 at BetUS and 5Dimes. Bovada, meanwhile, has -2 -105 available.


The Motivation. Edge: Redskins.
The Jets are a massive public underdog.


The Spread. Edge: Redskins.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Redskins -3.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Redskins -1.5.
Computer Model: Redskins -2.
DVOA Spread: Redskins -3.5.


The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.
The Jets are a massive public dog.

Percentage of money on New York: 72% (17,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Redskins -2.

Opening Total: 37.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 40 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Redskins 20, Jets 13
Redskins -2 -105 (4 Units) – Bovada — Incorrect; -$420
Under 38 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Jets 34, Redskins 17

---

Buffalo Bills (6-3) at Miami Dolphins (2-7)
Line: Bills by 7. Total: 41.
Sunday, Nov. 17, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started seven years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Tom Brady, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have brand new Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week!

MIAMI OFFENSE: I have no idea how the Dolphins are winning. They have the worst offensive line in the NFL. It’s so bad, in fact, that two of their starters – the left tackle and left guard – wouldn’t even be on most 53-man rosters. The Dolphins have no viable receiving threats besides DeVante Parker, and their running back is Kalen Ballage. Kalen f**king Ballage. He’s so bad that I didn’t want to play him at $3,800 on DraftKings last week!

This charade has to end at some point, right? I’m going to lose my mind if the worst team in NFL history keeps winning and covering. The Bills absolutely can’t let this happen, especially after nearly losing to Miami at home. The Bills’ excellent secondary will easily erase Parker and perhaps force Ryan Fitzpatrick into numerous turnovers. Fitzpatrick is due for one of those games. It’ll come, but it’s a matter of when.

The Bills have a run-funnel defense, as they’ve been exposed by rushing attacks lately. The Dolphins won’t be able to take advantage of this, as Ballage is the worst starting running back in the NFL, and it’s not even close.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Dolphins are also dreadful on this side of the ball. By my count, they have two starting defensive linemen, two starting cornerbacks and a starting safety who aren’t good enough to make most 53-man rosters. Their safety, by the way, is named Jomal Wiltz. He can’t even spell his first name right!

I don’t see why the Bills wouldn’t be able to move the chains with ease against the Dolphins. Josh Allen won’t face any resistance against the worst secondary in the NFL, and his offensive line should be able to protect him against a non-existent pass rush. John Brown figures to have a big game.

Allen will also pick up rushing yardage, as will Devin Singletary, who has finally become a larger part of the offense in recent weeks. Singletary is very talented, and he could have a great game against Miami’s inept linebackers.

RECAP: It’s time for the Dolphins to go back to losing in glorious fashion. They have zero healthy talent on their roster, and they need to lose games anyway. They’ve already lost out on Tua Tagovailoa to the Bengals, and now they’ll risk missing on Justin Herbert or even Joe Burrow.

The Bills should be able to win this game easily. They have the matchup edge, and I’d say they even have the motivational edge because it’s very likely that they’ll have more fans in the stands than the Dolphins will.

So, we have the matchup and motivational angles favoring the Bills. The spread points toward Buffalo as well. The advance line on this game was Buffalo -7.5. It has dropped two points because Brian Hoyer had a truly horrible game against the Dolphins. The Bills provide great value at -5.5, as the computer model and I say this spread should be -7 and -8, respectively.

I see no reason not to bet the Bills heavily. This will be another four-unit wager.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread has risen to -6.5 in most books. I don’t like the Bills as much at that number. I’d bet the Bills at -6 for three units, but -6.5 removes a key number from even pushing, so this is now a two-unit play.

SATURDAY NOTES: I thought there might have been an injury reason for why the Bills moved up to -6.5, but I can’t find one. In fact, the Dolphins will be getting back Reshad Jones from injury, which will allow them to displace one of their practice squad-level players. I still like the Bills, but I’m most definitely not going above two units now.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I didn’t even like the Bills for more than two units at -6.5. Now, the line is -7, thanks to sharp money on the visitor. Heritage has slightly better juice (-108) than the other books.


The Motivation. Edge: Bills.
There could be more Bills fans at this game than Miami supporters.


The Spread. Edge: Bills.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -8.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Bills -7.5.
Computer Model: Bills -7.
DVOA Spread: Bills -5.


The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.
Slight lean on the Bills.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 60% (15,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Bills have won 9 of the last 13 meetings.

Opening Line: Bills -7.5.

Opening Total: 39.

Weather: Sunny, 71 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Bills 24, Dolphins 6
Bills -7 -108 (2 Units) – Heritage — Correct; +$200
Under 41 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Bills 37, Dolphins 20

---

Houston Texans (6-3) at Baltimore Ravens (7-2)
Line: Ravens by 4.5. Total: 51.5.
Sunday, Nov. 17, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Texans.

Video of the Week: Here’s another prank call video, which got extremely violent:



Wow, that dude was ready to rumble! But seriously though, who the hell gets newspapers delivered to them anymore?

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Lamar Jackson had a great game against the Bengals. All everyone could talk about was his touchdown run that featured a crazy spin move. That was fun to watch, but there shouldn’t have been any hype about it. Everyone knows Jackson can run well, and that’s not something that’s viable for the long term. What’s most important is Jackson’s ability to throw well, and he had a terrific aerial performance at Cincinnati. That should have been the focus; not the spin run.

Jackson would’ve had a great matchup against Houston’s defense prior to the bye. The Texans’ secondary was in shambles then because of numerous injuries. However, they’ll be getting some reinforcements back after the idle week. Bradley Roby and Johnathan Joseph are expected to play following multi-week absences, which is huge because they’ve been Houston’s best corners when healthy. There’s also Gareon Conley, who should have used the bye week to get more integrated into Romeo Crennel’s defense.

I still don’t trust the Texans to be great against the pass, but they’ll at least improve in that regard. They’re already terrific against the run. Houston stuffs ground attacks just as well as anyone in the NFL, so it’ll have a chance to contain Jackson and Mark Ingram.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: The Texans have a big mismatch edge on this side of the ball. Because the Ravens lost Za’Darius Smith and Terrell Suggs in free agency this offseason, they have no viable pass rushers. They’ve had to compensate for this by blitzing heavily. No team in the NFL blitzes more than Baltimore, which resulted in Bengals quarterback Ryan Finley getting frazzled last week. He committed two turnovers that were returned for touchdowns as a result.

You know who’s not frazzled by the blitz? Deshaun Watson. In fact, Watson is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL against the blitz. Watson tends to struggle when his pedestrian offensive line can’t protect against four-man pass rushes, but he eats blitzes for breakfast. I expect him to have a huge performance as a result.

Houston won’t run the ball because the Ravens are terrific against the rush, but Watson will more than make up for that with his arm and his legs. Watson might even get Will Fuller back this week, but that’s just an unnecessary bonus, given how great of a matchup this is for him.

RECAP: We won eight units last week with the Buccaneers on what was my belated October NFL Pick of the Month. Houston is my November NFL Pick of the Month.

Let’s break down why I love the Texans by delving into the four elements I use when handicapping games in my new approach:

Matchup: I already wrote why this favors the Texans. For the tl;dr crowd, Houston is terrific against the run, while Watson is one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL against the blitz, which is something the Ravens do more than any other defense in the NFL.

Motivation: The Ravens are coming off victories against the Patriots and rival Bengals. They have to battle the Rams on national TV next week. They’re being overhyped by the media and are now healthy favorites over the Texans as a result. Everyone is saying that Jackson is one of the top MVP candidates, but Watson will want to prove that he’s more worthy of that distinction.

Spread: This number is too high for a couple of reasons. First, I rate these teams almost evenly, so when factoring in that the Texans are coming off a bye, I initially made this line Baltimore -3. But then I came to realize that might even be too high if the Ravens and Texans are truly equal, which is almost certainly the case. The correct line might just be Baltimore -2.5.

Also, Watson getting more than a field goal against a non-elite quarterback is a gift. Watson is 6-1 against the spread as an underdog of 3.5 or more, and his one loss was a seven-point defeat against Tom Brady as a 6.5-point underdog. Watson is one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL, and as we learned Monday night, these stellar signal-callers are almost automatic bets when getting lots of points, especially when they’re not going up against elite signal-callers like Brady.

Vegas: The public, as you might have suspected, is pounding the Ravens. They’ve been hearing ESPN hype up Baltimore to ridiculous levels. I’m eternally grateful to ESPN for pumping out such stupid content and catering toward imbeciles who judge everything based on what teams’ records are. The Ravens might be 7-2, but they’ve been blown out by the Browns at home, and they were destroyed by the Chiefs in Arrowhead before Kansas City allowed some garbage scores late in regulation to make the score look closer than it really was.

Speaking of Arrowhead, the Texans went there and dominated the Chiefs when Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill were playing together. The Ravens, conversely, were blown out at Arrowhead when Hill wasn’t on the field. I loved Houston in that game, and this seems like an even better spot. I expect the Texans to win outright, and I’ll be wagering eight units on them to do so.

I’m also going to lock this in now. I don’t think we’re waiting on any significant injuries, outside of Roby, who should play. Thus, I’d rather not risk losing out on the +4.5 -115 available at Bovada. The sharps have been pounding the Texans, causing this spread to drop from +5 to +4 in most books. There’s always a chance this line pops back up to +6, but I think it’s more likely that we’ll see +3.5 appear.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread dropped due to sharp action earlier in the week, but the line hasn’t moved lately. There’s a chance that could still happen. Nothing has changed for me regarding this game. I’d like to point out that the best line currently available is +4 -105 at Bovada.

SATURDAY NOTES: This spread was falling all week due to sharp action, but some pros bet Baltimore -4, which is why the line is now -4.5. This is a bummer, but I wonder if they did that because Marquise Brown was limited in Friday’s practice after missing practice all week. I’d obviously prefer Brown to be out, but I love the Texans regardless. Deshaun Watson getting anything more than a field goal is a gift.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Ugh, Bradley Roby is out. It seemed as though he would play, but apparently not. This sucks, but I still love the Texans. It’ll be shocking if Deshaun Watson doesn’t keep this game close and perhaps even win outright.


The Motivation. Edge: Texans.
The Ravens are coming off a big win over the Patriots recently and are being hyped up by the media. They have a Monday night affair versus the Rams next week.


The Spread. Edge: Texans.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Ravens -2.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Ravens -4.
Computer Model: Ravens -6.
DVOA Spread: Ravens -4.


The Vegas. Edge: None.
The public was all over the Ravens, but it’s evened out.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 55% (25,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Texans.

Deshaun Watson is 6-1 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 or more.

Opening Line: Ravens -5.

Opening Total: 50.

Weather: Cloudy, 42 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Texans 27, Ravens 20
Texans +4.5 -115 (8 Units – November NFL Pick of the Month) – Bovada — Incorrect; -$920
Texans +190 (0.5 Units) – BetUS — Incorrect; -$50
Under 51.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Ravens 41, Texans 7

---

Week 11 NFL Picks – Late Games
Cardinals at 49ers, Bengals at Raiders, Patriots at Eagles, Bears at Rams, Chiefs at Chargers




Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 11 NFL Picks – Late Games



NFL Picks - Nov. 20


2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20


NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19


Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4




SUB MENU






My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3
Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5
Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)