NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 8, 2020

Los Angeles Chargers (1-4) at Denver Broncos (2-3)
Line: Chargers by 3. Total: 44.5.
Sunday, Nov. 1, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Broncos.

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SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: I’ve written this a couple of times, but if the 2020 NFL Draft were re-done today, Justin Herbert would be a top-two selection. The Bengals would still pick Joe Burrow, but there’s no doubt that the Redskins would opt for Herbert. The Oregon product has been incredible since taking over for Tyrod Taylor in Week 2. He just won his first game, but he nearly defeated Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady and Drew Brees in three of his first four starts.

Beating Drew Lock should be a cinch, right? Maybe, but only if Herbert gets back some of his injured offensive linemen. He’s been without three starting blockers for a while now, which makes his high level of play even more impressive. I thought there was a good chance we’d see Trai Turner and Bryan Bulaga return off a bye, but that didn’t happen. Herbert didn’t need them against the Jaguars’ lackluster pass rush, but he’ll certainly require them to block a ferocious Denver front that had success against Patrick Mahomes last week.

The Broncos were able to get A.J. Bouye back from injury in the previous game, so he and Bryce Callahan give the Broncos a good chance to cover Herbert’s excellent receivers. Hunter Henry, on the other hand, is a different story. The Broncos struggle against tight ends, so Henry figures to have a strong performance.

DENVER OFFENSE: The Broncos played very well defensively against Mahomes, sacking him thrice and limiting him to 200 passing yards on 15-of-23 passing. They were still blown out, however, because of Drew Lock, Melvin Gordon and the special teams. Lock threw a pick-six, and then the defense allowed a kickoff returned for a touchdown. Suddenly, a 10-6 deficit turned into a 24-9 blowout, and Gordon didn’t help matters by fumbling a flea-flicker after that.

Lock has been a turnover machine lately, so I can’t say I have the most confidence in him thriving in this spot. The Chargers have Melvin Ingram back from injury, so he and Joey Bosa will make life difficult for Lock, whose receivers will be smothered by some talented corners.

Gordon, meanwhile, will be out for revenge. I’m not sure he’ll get it though against a tough run defense. Besides, the Chargers could be angry with him after he sat out some games last year.

RECAP: I’m not sure where I’m going with this pick yet. If the Chargers get back Turner and Bulaga, I’ll be backing them, as Herbert will have enough protection against Denver’s strong defense. Conversely, if the Chargers are missing three offensive linemen again, the Broncos will look appealing.

I know, I know, it’s hard to wager on the Broncos after that ugly showing in Week 7, but that’s exactly why you should be betting them. Buy low, sell high. They won at New England, so why can’t they prevail at home against the Chargers?

I’ll have updates later in the week once we know the statuses of Turner and Bulaga. For now, I’ll pencil in a non-wager on the Chargers.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’s too early in the week to know what the fates of Turner and Bulaga will be. The Saturday notes will be very telling for how this game might go.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Chargers once again will be missing multiple offensive linemen. Mike Pouncey and Trai Turner continue to be sidelined, while right tackle Bryan Bulaga is questionable. Bulaga’s backup, Trey Pipkins, is out with a minor illness. This is all bad news against Denver’s dominant front, which gave Patrick Mahomes and Cam Newton lots of problems over the past couple of weeks. The Broncos, meanwhile, had a scare for their offensive line with Graham Glasgow coming down with a minor illness, but those in close contact with him, Demar Dotson and Austin Schlottmann, tested negatively. With that in mind, I like the Broncos quite a bit. Justin Herbbert hasn’t faced a focused defense like this yet, so the throws across his body that he’s gotten away with could suddenly turn into pick-sixes.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps bet the Broncos down to +3. I wonder if that means that they know Bryan Bulaga won’t play in this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: It’s a major bummer that Bryan Bulaga is active, so I’m going to drop the unit count to three. Still, the Chargers are missing two offensive linemen, so I like the Broncos’ chances. The sharps, recognizing this, bet the Broncos at +3.5. The best line now is +3 -102 at FanDuel, followed by +3 -103 at Bookmaker.

New Orleans Saints (4-2) at Chicago Bears (5-2)
Line: Saints by 5.5. Total: 41.
Sunday, Nov. 1, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Saints.

Emmitt on the Brink Season 13 is underway! DeAndre Baker and Quinton Dunbar sneak into NFL headquarters and are caught off guard by what they see there.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Nick Foles and the rest of the Bears’ “scoring” unit didn’t have the best showing on a national stage this past Monday night. Foles missed several open receivers, as he was betrayed by an offensive line that couldn’t block Aaron Donald and Leonard Floyd. The result was just three points scored, with the other seven from the 24-10 loss coming off Robert Woods’ fumble returned for a touchdown.

The Bears’ offensive line took a hit when guard James Daniels suffered an injury, forcing the inept Rashaad Coward into the lineup. As we all know, Cowards can’t block Warriors, so it was only natural that Chicago struggled to protect Foles against the Rams, especially after center Cody Whitehair got banged up. All indications are that Whitehair is fine, but we won’t know for sure until the injury report is released.

I don’t trust the Bears to block the Saints very well. New Orleans has a great defensive line that should be able to disrupt whatever the Bears try to do, especially if Whitehair is absent or hurt. This includes the lackluster running game; the Saints thrive against the rush.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Saints got some unpleasant news prior to the Carolina game regarding Michael Thomas’ health. Thomas was supposed to return following a lengthy absence, but he got hurt again, forcing him to miss the Carolina contest. He’s not expected to play this game either. Meanwhile, we don’t know about the statuses of Emmanuel Sanders or Marquez Callaway. Sanders is nursing a minor illness, while the upstart Callaway got hurt at the end of the Week 7 affair.

It could be tough for the Saints to move the chains consistently against the Bears if several receivers are sidelined. However, if it’s just Thomas who happens to be out, I’ll have confidence in New Orleans, especially given that Alvin Kamara has a great matchup against the Chicago linebackers. This is a position of weakness for the Bears, as evidenced by their struggles against Darrell Henderson, Malcolm Brown and Gerald Everett on Monday night. Given that, imagine what Kamara and Jared Cook will do.

The Bears’ only chances of disrupting this are to pressure Drew Brees heavily. Brees, however, is very well protected, so even though he’s not the same quarterback he once was, he should be able to have a decent performance in this contest, provided all of his receivers aren’t sidelined.

RECAP: I like the Saints to cover this spread, though my unit count will depend on how many receivers are injured. Whitehair’s status will also play a factor in determining how heavy my wager is.

I think this spread could be completely incorrect. Think about it this way: The Bears are clearly overrated at 5-2. They’ve gotten lucky in some wins against bad teams like the Lions and Giants. They’re four plays away from being 1-6. If they, as a 1-6 team, were hosting the Saints, what would this spread be? I’d think New Orleans would be favored by a touchdown, or perhaps as many as 10 points!

Also, something to keep in mind is that the Bears are coming off a blowout loss on Monday night. Teams that suffer defeats like this have a difficult task bouncing back because there’s not enough time to make adjustments. The Bears are in desperate need of more time to bolster things, but they won’t have that luxury versus a tough foe.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: None of the Saints receivers practiced Wednesday. That’s not good news, but it’s so early in the week that things may change.

SATURDAY NOTES: I was hoping for the Saints to have one of their receivers back from injury/minor illness, but their top three players at the position will be sidelined in this game. That would give the Bears a big advantage, except Chicago has some major injury issues as well. They’ll be missing two offensive linemen, Cody Whitehair and James Daniels, against the Saints’ stellar defensive front. The Saints should win this game easily with the Bears coming off a blowout loss on short rest, though it’s a bummer that Allen Robinson has cleared concussion protocol and will play after being listed as doubtful. He is why the line moved from +4.5 to +4 on Saturday afternoon.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: There was some question about Khalil Mack playing, but he will suit up. There’s actually been a bit of sharp money on the Saints, but it could be possible that they’re just trying to get a great number on the Bears (though not very likely.)

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Saints are down their top three receivers, as expected. The Bears are down two offensive linemen, as expected. There’s some sharp money betting up the Saints, though I’d be surprised if we saw any +6s. The best -5.5 I see comes with -108 vig at Bookmaker.

San Francisco 49ers (4-3) at Seattle Seahawks (5-1)
Line: Pick. Total: 54.
Sunday, Nov. 1, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The 49ers were missing their starting center and top two running backs, but you wouldn’t have known that by just watching the game last week. San Francisco pounded the ball successfully with Jeff Wilson Jr. and then JaMycal Hasty when Wilson suffered an injury. They did this against Bill Belichick’s stop unit, of all defenses.

The 49ers block extremely well, and their offensive line has a great mismatch against Seattle’s poor defensive front. The Seahawks needed to make adjustments to their defensive line this past offseason, but failed to do so. This has limited their ability to stop the run and also get pressure on the quarterback.

With that in mind, Jimmy Garoppolo will have a clean pocket to find George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk for decent chunks against Seatte’s anemic pass defense. The one thing that will save the Seahawks from this horrible fate is if Jamal Adams returns from injury. The Seahawks’ pass defense has been far worse ever since losing Adams in the Week 3 Dallas game. It was discouraging that Adams didn’t return following the bye, so I’m not overly optimistic that he’ll be able to play in this contest.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: The 49er team we’ve seen over the past couple of weeks is a far cry from the squad we saw get blown out against the Dolphins in Week 5. San Francisco was down four cornerbacks in that game, and as a result, it couldn’t do anything to stop Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing to DeVante Parker and his other receivers. That has obviously changed since, as some healthy cornerbacks plus Jason Verrett have combined to greatly bolster the aerial defense.

While the better cornerbacks give the 49ers some hope against the Seahaws, I ultimately don’t think it’ll matter. Russell Wilson, D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are just too good to stop. Stephon Gilmore couldn’t even do anything to prevent Metcalf from producing! I’m sure Metcalf will be hungry after doing nothing statistically against the Cardinals on Sunday night, thanks in part to being robbed of the game-winning touchdown by offensive pass interference.

There’s one caveat regarding Wilson’s success, and that would be the offensive line. Seattle’s blocking has been much better this year, but there’s a chance the team could be down two offensive linemen Sunday. Mike Iupati has missed the past two games, while impressive rookie guard Damien Lewis got hurt versus the Cardinals. Being down two blockers versus the Cardinals slowed down the Seattle offense this past Sunday night, and it’ll hinder the unit in this contest as well.

RECAP: The Seahawks have a ton of injury question marks at this time, which make it difficult predict this game. Will Adams finally return to help the pass defense? How many offensive linemen will the Seahawks miss in this contest? What about Chris Carson; will he be healthy?

We’ll have a better idea of the Seahawks look better in the week. If they continue to be injury-ravaged, the 49ers may seem like a good play. They’re trending upward, while the Seahawks barely survived the Vikings and then lost to the Cardinals.

That said, betting on Wilson off a loss is way too tempting. Since his second season, Wilson is 22-10 against the spread following a defeat. That’s amazing. I love siding with great quarterbacks following a defeat. We were able to do this last week with Aaron Rodgers, and now Wilson has given us this opportunity.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: We’re eagerly awaiting the Jamal Adams news. His return would be tremendous for the Seahawks’ pathetic pass defense.

SATURDAY NOTES: Here’s another game that has severe injury questions on both sides. The 49ers, like always, will be down numerous defensive starters as well as their center and No. 1 receiver. The Seahawks, conversely, will be down two cornerbacks (Shaq Griffin, Ugo Amadi) and potentially Jamal Adams. The All-Pro safety practiced Friday, but if I were to guess, I don’t think he’ll suit up. Still, it’s hard not to like the Seahawks with Russell Wilson coming off a loss.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Some sharp money brought this line down to -1. It’s disappointing, but the pros have been anti-Seattle since Week 4. I’m still confident in Russell Wilson off a bye.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have continued to bet the 49ers. This line is now a pick ’em! Jamal Adams, Ugo Amadi, Shaq Griffin, Mike Iupati and Chris Carson are all sidelined, so I can understand why the pros are betting San Francisco. However, I’m staying with the Seahawks for four units. All Russell Wilson has to do is win? Sign me up! The best line I see is PK -108 at Bookmaker.

Dallas Cowboys (2-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-4-1)
Line: Eagles by 10.5. Total: 42.5.
Sunday, Nov. 1, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

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DALLAS OFFENSE: I’m beginning with the Cowboys because their quarterback situation is the reason there’s no line on this game. Andy Dalton took a vicious hit from Jon Bostic this past Sunday, resulting in a horrible-looking concussion. It’s highly doubtful Dalton will play in this game, but you never know.

Dalton wouldn’t even give the Cowboys much of a chance to win this game. Dallas’ offensive line is in shambles and won’t be able to block the Eagles’ front. The Eagles will put lots of pressure on Dalton or Ben DiNucci, just like the Redskins did last week, forcing more errant throws.

The Eagles are better versus the run than the pass, so this obviously doesn’t bode well for Ezekiel Elliott. At some point, Elliott will stop committing fumbles and interceptions as a result of dropped passes, but this won’t be the game where he adds much to his rushing total.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Carson Wentz engineered a nice comeback against the Giants last week, but he should’ve never had to do so. Wentz’s poor play in the first three quarters created the deficit in the first place. The Eagles should have destroyed the Giants, but Wentz’s poor passes and decision-making nearly sabotaged the victory.

I’d like to declare that Wentz will play better against a terrible Dallas defense, but it’s not like he had much of a challenge against the Giants. The only thing I’ll say is that there’s a chance Wentz improves as a result of having extra time to prepare for this game; the mini-bye following the Thursday night affair could have given Wentz some time to make needed adjustments.

It won’t help that Wentz will continue to miss key weapons like Zach Ertz, Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson. Miles Sanders is another Eagle who will be sidelined this week. However, Boston Scott is a fine substitute, and it’s not like the Cowboys stop the run well. They just allowed Antonio Gibson to rush for 120 yards!

RECAP: There’s no spread on this game at the moment, so I can’t issue a pick yet. I’ll probably be on the Eagles, but it really depends on what the line is, and who will be playing quarterback for Dallas.

Check back later, or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread opened at -8.5 and has since risen to -9, so this line assumes Andy Dalton will be sidelined. Thw Cowboys will likely be getting back Zack Martin. That’s nice, but Dallas has no chance of competing with Ben DiNucci.

SATURDAY NOTES: The good news for the Cowboys is that Zack Martin and Joe Looney will return this week to bolster the offensive line, while Chidobe Awuzie will play for the first time since Week 2 to help the secondary. The bad news for the Cowboys is that Andy Dalton is doubtful, so Ben DiNucci will get the nod behind a front still missing two starters. Making things worse for Dallas, it sounds like the Eagles will have their two tackles protecting Carson Wentz for the third time all year. That’s huge, given that Dallas’ edge rush is the only good part of the team’s defense. Also, Dallas Goedert will play, giving Wentz a much-needed weapon. The Cowboys lost at the Redskins last week, 25-3, showing no signs of life and no fight when Jon Bostic laid out Dalton. This tells me the Cowboys are just going through the motions, so I don’t see why they would fight for DiNucci.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps got in on the Eagles back when this line was -7.5 through -9.5. They haven’t bet the Eagles as much above -10, but Philadelphia should still be the right side.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The inactives list is very disappointing. I was hoping for both Eagle tackles to be active, with Jason Peters returning. Peters is active, but Lane Johnson is not. That sucks, and it’s why the sharps jumped on the Cowboys late to bring this line down to +10. The pros initially bet the Eagles up from -7.5, but other smart money is on Dallas. I’m going to remain on the Eagles for three units. Bovada has the best vig (-110).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-2) at New York Giants (1-6)
Line: Buccaneers by 13. Total: 45.
Monday, Nov. 2, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Buccaneers.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Dan Fouts and Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Tampa Bay, where the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a team my Philadelphia Eagles always used to dominate, take on the New York Vigiants! Guys, no one cares about this stupid game, so let’s discuss some news that broke recently. Guys, the Philadelphia Post is reporting that my laptop was found in some store and there are compromising e-mails on it. I hope no one believes what that newspaper is saying about me.

Emmitt: Michael, I do not belief a second of it. Everybody keep talking about this laptop and it hard to belief. I take my computer and I take the giant rectangle thing and put it on my lap and then I take the TV and put it on my lap and then I take the keystroke pad and put it on my lap, and I try to make it works, but it fall off my lap and get brokened. Anybody who say a computer can be on your lap is a bald face liar!

Reilly: Emmitt, it sounds like you had a desktop and not a laptop. But guys, this is serious. The Philadelphia Post is saying that I was flown to Chinatown in downtown Philadelphia and that I abused my position to make deals so that Mother and I could make money.

Tollefson: Kevin, I like going to Chinatown. The women there are easy. The Chinese women are used to being concubines, so kidnapping them and having them service me is a breeze. It’s the American women that provide the challenge. What doofus told them they could have careers, aspirations and even basic rights? What an idiot!

Reilly: Tolly, this is serious! What am I going to do about these e-mails?

Jason Witten: Hello, my name is Jason Witten and I just came out of retirement. Guys, I’ve heard that we’re talking about e-mails. Now, e-mails are the same as regular mails, except they have the numer “e” before each of them. No one really knows what this means. No one knows what the number “e” stands for. But it’s clear that if you have regular mails, there are no number “e” before them, but if you have an e-mail, you have the number “e” before them. You also have a dash. I don’t know what the dash stands for, but the number “e” is always followed by the number dash, but if you have regular mails, there are no number “e” and there are no number dash. Because if you look at it, the e-mail has the number “e” and the number dash and the regular mails don’t have the number “e” or the number dash either.

Reilly: Shut up, Jason Whitlock, no one cares! Guys, these e-mails have me referring to Mother as the Big Guy. What if they find out!?

Fouts: I- wait- your mother is the Big Guy!? Buhahahahaa!

Wolfley: DAN, THIS IS NOT FUNNY. MY MOTHER MAY NOT BE A BIG GUY, BUT SHE IS A RED FIRE TRUCK WITH THREE EYEBALLS AND A TOOTHPICK STICKING OUT THE BACK WITH SAUCE ON ALL THE BOYS. BUT MY BEST FRIEND MELVIS’ MOTHER IS ALSO A BIG GUY, AND SHE ALWAYS ORDERED FRIED CEREAL FROM THE LOCAL FRIED CEREAL JOINT FOR US WHEN WE’D SLEEP OVER.

Reilly: Thanks, Wolfley! Nothing wrong with Mother having the nickname the Big Guy, right, New Daddy?

Cutler: That’s kinda weird man, the one hour per week I’m not stoned and I’m banging your mom, she calls me “The Big Guy” too, so we’re both the Big Guy? I need to evaluate things.

Reilly: Nooo, New Daddy! You can both be the Big Guy! Please! Someone help keep my family together and not in jail!

Alyssa Milano: I’d like to say that I find this sexist! Why is there so much talk about the big guy!? Why can’t we talk about big ladies!? Big ladies!? Who said big ladies!? That’s body shaming! Someone call 9-1-1! I hate the police, ahhhh!!!

Reilly: Please, someone do something before I go to jail! I’ll be passed around in jail and bad guys will have fun with my butt! I need a lawyer to keep me out of jail!

Charles Davis: Kevin, looks like you’ll need a lawyer to keep you out of jail, Kevin. Let’s talk about some famous lawyers you can hire, Kevin. Let’s begin with Saul Goodman, Kevin. What a great lawyer, Kevin. How about Marshall Eriksen, Kevin? Let’s discuss Clair Huxtable, Kevin. Why not delve into Ben Matlock, Kevin? We can have lunch and chat about Gomez Adams, Kevin. Let’s not forget about Perry Mason, Kevin. What do you think of Bob Loblaw, Kevin? Tell me your thoughts on Lionel Hutz, Kevin. How about one more for the road, Kevin. How about Gerald Broflovski, Kevin?

Reilly: Yes, I need all their numbers! Please give me their numbers!

Charles Davis: Kevin, I can’t, Kevin, because they’re all fictional, Kevin!

Reilly: WHAT THE F**K, WHY WOULD YOU WASTE MY TIME WITH THEM THEN!? I’M GOING TO JAIL FOR SURE, AND MY BUTT WILL BE VIOLATED, AHHHH!!! We’ll be back after this!

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Buccaneers won’t get Antonio Brown to play for them yet this week, but it wouldn’t matter under normal circumstances. However, news broke today that Chris Godwin will miss this game. New York has a stellar cornerback in James Bradberry, who should do a good job on Mike Evans. Still, Tom Brady is hot right now, and Rob Gronkowski and Leonard Fournette will prove to be too much for the Giants.

The Giants of old, of course, could have disrupted all of this with incredible pressure. The Giants of 2020 – and also of the past couple of seasons – haven’t been able to generate a pass rush since losing Jason Pierre-Paul. Brady struggles when defenses can harass him with just four pass-rushers while dropping everyone else into coverage. The Giants can’t generate any sort of pressure on anyone.

While the Giants are anemic versus the pass, they’re at least decent against the run. However, Fournette should be able to generate some good receiving yardage against the New York linebackers.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: This game is a severe mismatch between the two teams. Looking closer, there’s an even larger disparity between two elements of the two squads; one that gives the Giants no chance to prevail. The Giants have the worst offensive line in the NFL, while the Buccaneers have the best defensive line in the league.

With that in mind, how will Daniel Jones possibly survive this game? The Giants’ blocking is anemic – Andrew Thomas has been terrible thus far – so the Buccaneers will easily win this matchup in the trenches. Jones will take many sacks, and given that he’s so sloppy with the football, he’ll commit countless turnovers.

Forget about the running game, too, by the way. The Buccaneers just erased Josh Jacobs and Aaron Jones the past two weeks, so how is Wayne Gallman going to do anything?

RECAP: This line is very high, but I just don’t see how the Giants can be competitive in this game. There’s always a chance for a back-door cover, or a very fluky series of turnovers that cause the Buccaneers to win by eight or so, but it’s more likely than not that the Buccaneers will cover this spread.

I’ll likely be betting a few units on this game. I wouldn’t go nuts because weird things can happen when the betting action is so lopsided, but the Buccaneers should be able to win by double digits.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I didn’t mention this earlier, but the Buccaneers may be looking ahead to playing the Saints on Sunday night next week. However, given that this is the first night game for the Buccaneers, not counting the Thursday night contest against the Bears, they may want to show off and make a statemenet on a national stage.

SATURDAY NOTES: We haven’t learned anything from the injury report. I still like the Buccaneers for a couple of units. The concern is that the Buccaneers might be looking ahead to next week’s game against the Saints, but because this is a Monday night affair, they might be up for the Giants. There’s also the possibility of a back-door cover.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Will the sharps jump on the big home dog? I don’t think so, unless this goes to +14. Even then, the Giants may not be that appealing.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m still on the Buccaneers for two units. The only thesis behind the Giants is either A) The Buccaneers will be looking ahead to the Saints, or B) There will be weird turnovers or special-teams plays that keep this close. This game will be a blowout otherwise. I was hoping for the sharps to bet this down, but that never happened. This line is -13, and the best vig available is at BetUS (+100).