NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 9, 2021

Los Angeles Chargers (4-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-5)
Line: Pick. Total: 49.
Sunday, Nov. 7, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

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SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: Justin Herbert was once considered one of the top MVP candidates, but that’s no longer the case in the wake of his two previous losses. His team was blown out versus Baltimore, and while it played the Patriots closely, Herbert imploded with two interceptions, including a pick-six.

Herbert has a much easier matchup in this contest. The Eagles will be blitzing to take advantage of Herbert’s struggles in that regard, but the Eagles have plenty of holes in their back seven that can be exploited. Their linebacking corps is particularly abysmal, so Austin Ekeler is in for a huge performance. Herbert will also have success connecting with his tight ends.

The Eagles are at least stronger against the run than the pass, so they have that going for them. Ekeler won’t get much on the ground, but he’ll be a big receiving threat.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Eagles’ scoring unit couldn’t be stopped against the Lions, which was just one week after they failed to generate any sort of offense until garbage time versus the Raiders. Given the caliber of opponent in each contest, it shouldn’t be a surprise that there was such a stark difference.

The Chargers are excellent against the pass. They just frustrated Mac Jones and figure to do the with another former Alabama quarterback. They’ll put plenty of pressure on Jalen Hurts, which will force more errant throws downfield. Hurts and Dallas Goedert would have a great matchup edge over the middle of the field if this were three weeks ago when dynamic linebacker Drue Tranquill was sidelined versus Baltimore, but Tranquill is back, so that’s no longer the case.

Unlike the Eagles, the Chargers weaker to the run than the pass, but there’s no guarantee that Philadelphia will attempt to establish its ground attack. Nick Sirianni often forgets that part of his playbook, and it’s not like he has talented runners at his disposal anyway.

RECAP: The sharps, for the fifth week in a row, are all over the Eagles, bringing this spread down from +3 to +1. The pros haven’t really gotten the Eagles right, however, at least prior to last week’s victory over the Lions. The Eagles lucked out in a cover against the Panthers via a blocked punt, and they needed a miracle back-door cover versus Tampa Bay. The Raiders then obliterated Philadelphia in Week 7.

I don’t understand why the sharps love the Eagles so much, especially in this contest. The Chargers seem like the right play to me. With the new line value we have – the advance spread was Chargers -3 – it seems like a nice time to buy low on a San Angeles team coming off two losses. Meanwhile, the Eagles seem like they’re in a sell-high position after destroying the Lions. This isn’t the first time Philadelphia clobbered a bad team on the road, destroying the Falcons in Week 1. The Eagles proceeded to lose at home to the 49ers the following week.

I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t concerned about all of this sharp money, but the Chargers seem like the correct play to me.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharp money stopped flowing in on the Eagles at +1.5. At least, for now. I still don’t get what the pros see in the Eagles.

SATURDAY NOTES: It might be possible that the sharp money came in on the Eagles because the Chargers will be missing their top two outside cornerbacks in this game, Asante Samuel Jr. and Michael Davis. Making matters worse, top reserve cornerback Tevaughn Campbell was added to the injury report on Saturday with a groin issue. Then again, Jalen Hurts is generally inept as a passer, so I don’t know if he can fully take advantage of this. I came close to changing my pick, but I’ll stick with the Chargers. I will not be betting this game.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Man, there’s so much sharp action on the Eagles. They could be wrong again like they were in the Raider and Buccaneer matchups (Philadelphia covered versus Tampa Bay, but that was the wrong side), but then again, the Chargers are missing their top three outside cornerbacks. I’m not touching this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s good news for the Chargers, as their third outside cornerback, Tevaughn Campbell, will play in this game. This has stopped the sharp money from coming in on the Eagles. The best line for the Chargers is -1 -108 at Bookmaker. I still have no interest in betting either side.

Green Bay Packers (7-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-4)
Line: Chiefs by 7. Total: 48.
Sunday, Nov. 7, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Chiefs must have the worst variance I’ve ever seen. They’ve been getting terribly unlucky with bad bounces the entire season. Coming off a humiliating loss to the Titans, I thought they would play a much cleaner game against the Giants. Instead, Patrick Mahomes threw an interception on the opening drive because a pass was tipped, and then Travis Kelce lost a fumble in field goal range. The Chiefs should’ve scored anywhere between six and 14 more points than they did. Conversely, they had a chance at a Daniel Jones pick-six, but a defender slipped.

Everything has been going against the Chiefs this year, but things have to turn around eventually. They’re much better than how they’ve looked, so perhaps this will be the week. They have an easy matchup against a Green Bay defense missing some key players, including Jaire Alexander. DeAndre Hopkins wasn’t healthy enough to take advantage of this matchup, but Tyreek Hill will be. Mahomes will get the ball to him and his other threats, as Chiefs supporters will be hoping for no unfortunate bounces this time.

Then again, maybe Mahomes won’t have to do as much. Undrafted free agent running back Derrick Gore looked great against the Giants. The Packers’ rush defense is weak, so Gore could continue to have success.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: The Packers were severely undermanned Thursday night, missing their top three receivers. Despite this, they still scored 24 points, thanks mostly to their running game. Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon trampled an Arizona defense that sorely missed J.J. Watt.

Both Packer backs figure to continue where they left off last week. The Chiefs are notoriously poor against the run, though they managed to limit Derrick Henry a couple of weeks ago. I’m not buying this sudden resurgence, as Devontae Booker ripped off a few nice runs Monday night.

Nevertheless, the Chiefs still have to worry about Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams. Their lackluster pass rush was a big problem, which is why the front office traded for Melvin Ingram on Tuesday morning. Ingram has been banged up lately, but he’ll provide a big boost to the Chiefs’ lackluster defensive line. His presence could help slow down Rodgers a bit, but I don’t expect Green Bay to punt very much.

RECAP: Can you remember the last time the Chiefs were so undervalued like this? Several weeks ago, this spread would’ve been Kansas City -4 at the very least. Even a week ago, it was -2.5. Now, it’s pick ’em!

The Chiefs have seemed broken this year, but I don’t think they’re unfixable. They keep having the unluckiest bounces. I’ve never seen anything like it. Teams have suffered this sort of misfortune for several weeks, but not two months. This has to stop at some point.

Perhaps I’m a glutton for punishment, but I’m betting the Chiefs heavily once again. I love the value we’re getting with them, as they’re basically a home underdog for the first time in Mahomes’ career. The Packers, conversely, are overrated. I haven’t been impressed with anything they’ve accomplished all year. They beat the Cardinals, but Arizona is a severely injury-ravaged team that might be in a free fall. The week before, the Redskins outplayed the Packers despite what the final score says. Green Bay won in Chicago by 10 before that in a margin that was less than the 49ers-Bears affair in Week 8. Prior to that contest, the Packers easily could’ve lost to the Bengals if it weren’t for some missed kicks.

It’s rare that we’re getting an underrated team with tremendous value versus an overrated opponent. I can’t get over that Mahomes is basically a home underdog for the first time in the NFL. No one would have thought that would be possible when the season began, yet here we are. I’m going to take advantage of this opportunity.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m doing an early Thursday Thoughts write-up because of the breaking news today. Aaron Rodgers tested positive and won’t be able to play in this contest. This spread was promptly taken off the board and opened Kansas City -7.5. Some sharp money brought it down to -7, then some more money moved it back up to -7.5.

I’m smitten with the Packers at this price. You know by now that I’m a big fan of betting good teams playing with their backup quarterbacks. The Packers obviously qualify. There’s been a huge overadjustment with this spread, so I love the value we’re getting with Green Bay as well. The Chiefs have not played well this year, so asking them to cover a big number versus a quality opponent just isn’t very feasible.

I’m such a big fan of the Packers now that I make them my November NFL Pick of the Month. I thought about locking them in now, but someone made a good point about Jordan Love perhaps eventually testing positive as well because of his proximity to Rodgers. If so, I don’t want to back a Blake Bortles-led Packer squad at +7.5. The line would certainly move to +10 or higher in that scenario.

SATURDAY NOTES: I think I got a bit carried away with my Pick of the Month talk. I love the Packers this week, but I don’t want to risk a Pick of the Month by going against Patrick Mahomes following such a bad performance. One of these weeks, things will come together for Mahomes, who will go on a tear. Plus, the only angle I like is the Packers playing with their backup quarterback in a game involving an overadjusted point spread.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Sharp money is on the Packers at +7.5, but they haven’t really been betting the +7 yet.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Nothing new to add. Once again, the sharps bet the Packers at +7.5, but not at +7. The best line is +7 -108 at Bookmaker. I’m going to bet four units on Green Bay.

Arizona Cardinals (7-1) at San Francisco 49ers (3-4)
Line: 49ers by 6. Total: 45.
Sunday, Nov. 7, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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ARIZONA OFFENSE: Kyler Murray struggled Thursday night before a crazy fourth quarter that ended with a heart-breaking interception. Murray didn’t have DeAndre Hopkins at his disposal for a big chunk of the first half, and the offensive line missing three starting blockers was a huge problem. Despite battling a secondary missing Jaire Alexander, Murray just couldn’t generate any offense until Hopkins returned.

Hopkins will have extra time to heal, which is a plus. Also, there’s a chance the Cardinals could have some reinforcements back on their offensive front. All of this is bullish for the Cardinals, obviously, and it’s not like they have a difficult matchup. San Francisco just surrendered 100-plus rushing yards to Justin Fields, so containing Murray will be a problem for a defense missing six starters.

Some of those starters, as you may know, are members of the secondary. The 49ers have a skeleton crew defensive backfield, so Murray will have passing success against it as well, assuming that Hopkins is healthier than he was versus the Packers. This is likely to be the case, though it’s not a given. Also, Murray got hurt at the end of the Green Bay game, so there’s a chance he’s not 100 percent either.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Amazingly, the 49ers didn’t punt a single time against the Bears last week. In fact, they entered the Chicago 30-yard line on every single drive. They settled for some field goals early in the game, but those eventually turned into touchdowns once Chicago’s bending defense finally broke.

The 49ers did most of their damage on the ground versus the Bears, with Elijah Mitchell picking up big chunks of yardage in the second half. San Francisco didn’t run very well versus Arizona in the first meeting this year, as Mitchell was restricted to just 43 yards. However, J.J. Watt was on the field for the Cardinals. Watt is gone, and the previously potent run defense struggled as a consequence this past Thursday.

Conversely, Jimmy Garoppolo wasn’t playing for the 49ers in that Week 5 matchup. Trey Lance made his one and only start this year, and he struggled as a passer. Garoppolo is no great quarterback, but he has experience, and he’ll be able to connect more often with Deebo Samuel than Lance did in that contest. George Kittle will also be back after failing to play in the first meeting.

RECAP: I’m really worried about the Cardinals. I bet them to win the Super Bowl, but with all of their injuries, they’re not nearly as good as the 7-0 team that previously dominated the Rams and Browns. Watt’s absence is huge, the offensive line injuries are very worrisome, and there’s a chance at least one of Murray or Hopkins won’t be 100 percent in this contest.

The 49ers, meanwhile, were very impressive last week. Granted, they were just battling the Bears, but moving inside the opponents’ 30-yard line on every single drive was encouraging. They also played very well against the Cardinals in the first meeting. If Lance had reached the end zone instead of being tackled at the 1-yard line, the 49ers would’ve lost by only three points despite Arizona having Watt in that matchup.

Despite all this, the public is betting the Cardinals. Again, I’m worried about Arizona, especially against an opponent that has revenge on its mind. I wish I was wrong, for the sake of my Super Bowl wagers, but I have a feeling the 49ers will win this game. Depending on the injury report, this might be a very big wager.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Neither Kyler Murray nor DeAndre Hopkins practiced Wednesday or Thursday, which is not a good sign. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Murray had to sit out this game. This spread is off the board at most sportsbooks, but FanDuel and DraftKings still list the 49ers at +1. This will be great value if Murray sits. If Murray plays, we’ll probably see a +2.5 posted, and it’ll feel a bit bad, but I’d still love San Francisco at that price. I thought about locking this in, but I think I’d want to bet this line up to +3 if Murray plays. From reading thoughts from various medical people, they all believe Murray will play, but that’s obviously all guesswork.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m kicking myself for not btting the 49ers at +1, but as Cam Newton once said, hindsight is 50/50. Kyler Murray easily could’ve practiced Friday, moving the spread up closer to Arizona -3. The line could still head in that direction if Murray and DeAndre Hopkins play. We’ll see what happens. This line is now -2.5 -120, as there’s some major sharp action coming in on San Francisco. I’m going to wait and see what happens with Murray. If Murray sits, the 49ers will be favored by more than a touchdown, so I’d be interested in Arizona. If Murray plays, we might get a more reasonable number.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Still no news on Kyler Murray, but it doesn’t sound like DeAndre Hopkins will play. This line is now -3.5. It’ll be interesting to see what happens with this spread if Murray is in or out. Check back around 3:30 for my final pick.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins are both out. Everyone is betting the 49ers like it’s free money. I’m going to side with Arizona at +6 -123 at Bookmaker. I like betting good teams with their backup quarterback, and San Francisco is typically a bad wager as a large favorite.

Tennessee Titans (6-2) at Los Angeles Rams (7-1)
Line: Rams by 7.5. Total: 52.5.
Sunday, Nov. 7, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Rams.

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TENNESSEE OFFENSE: All discussion of this game must begin on this side of the ball for two obvious reasons. One, Derrick Henry has been ruled out 6-10 weeks with foot surgery. This is unfortunate for Henry, who appeared as though he would be the first-ever running back to rush for consecutive 2,000-yard seasons. Henry should return for the playoffs, but in the meantime, it’ll be Adrian Peterson and Jeremy McNichols. They’ll be OK, but neither will serve as a game-changing, dynamic player that Henry was.

The second reason is that the Rams traded for Von Miller, surrendering two second-round choices to the Broncos. This was a great short-term deal for them. The Rams’ edge rush hasn’t been potent for quite some time, but that’s no longer the case. It’s going to be quite challenging for opposing offenses to block both Miller and Aaron Donald. The Titans will be the first team tasked to do so, and they’ll have to do this without their All-Pro running back.

Ryan Tannehill still has A.J. Brown and Julio Jones at his disposal, but they won’t be as scary without not having to worry about Henry. Also, Jones is banged up, while Brown will have to deal with Jalen Ramsey.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: Oh, and the Titans will need to keep pace with Matthew Stafford and the rest of the Rams’ dynamic offense. This will be problematic for them for a couple of reasons. The first is that Tennessee is missing multiple cornerbacks. Carson Wentz had success attacking downfield last week, so Stafford will definitely dominate in this regard with all of his talented wideouts.

The second issue for the Titans is that they won’t be able to rattle Stafford. They have some talent up front, and they were able to harass Patrick Mahomes a couple of weeks ago, but the Rams possess a terrific offensive line that will keep Stafford clean.

The strength of the Tennessee defense is its ability to stop the run. However, thanks to the injuries at linebacker, the Titans struggle against receiving threats out of the backfield. Darrell Henderson figures to thrive as a pass-catcher in this contest.

RECAP: The advance spread on this game was Los Angeles -4.5. The spread has ballooned to -7.5, but not only because of the Henry injury and Miller trade. Even before those two events, however, this line was -6.5. There was value on Tennessee.

That said, I’m not interested in this value. The Titans won’t be the same team without Henry, and this is the first good team they’ll be playing all year that has their full attention since Week 1 when Arizona obliterated them.

I like the Rams, but not enough to bet them. Being on the wrong side of seven stings, and I’m not seeing any other edges that would point to the host being the right side.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This line is beginning to creep up, as some -8s have appeared. At some point, this line may get too high, and we’ll have decent value on the Titans. Perhaps that’ll be at +10.

SATURDAY NOTES: Who is even playing in this game? The Titans, already down Derrick Henry, two cornerbacks, two linebackers and starting guard Nate Davis, didn’t have A.J. Brown or Taylor Lewan practicing Friday. The Rams, meanwhile, saw Matthew Stafford, Robert Woods, Von Miller and Jalen Ramsey all miss two practices during the week. Woods, Miller and Ramsey are all questionable. Stafford doesn’t have an injury designation, but it’s worrying that he missed practice time with a back ailment. Will he be 100 percent? I’ll have a better idea of what I want to do with this game once the inactives list is released Sunday evening. I may end up on Tennessee. The injury report will be crucial.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: We’re still waiting on major injury news. Check back around 7:45 for my final thoughts.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’ve decided to bet two units on the Titans. I think this line is way too much of an overreaction. Tennessee’s offense is still potent with the two receivers. Meanwhile, Matthew Stafford missed practice time with a back injury this week. We already saw one team falter by playing an injured quarterback despite being a big favorite (Cowboys), so it’s possible the Rams could have similar problems. Stafford might be 100 percent, but I think going with the Titans is a nice value play regardless. I’ve looked far and wide for a +7.5 -110, but I haven’t located one. The best line is +7.5 -115 across many sportsbooks. There’s no sharp action to report at this line.

Chicago Bears (3-5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3)
Line: Steelers by 7. Total: 39.
Monday, Nov. 8, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Pittsburgh, where the Pittsburgh Penguins take on the Chicago Cubs! Guys, I never root for the Pittsburgh Penguins because they play in the same state as my Philadelphia Eagles, and there can only be one football team in the state, and it’s my Philadelphia Eagles, the best team in the world! But I am rooting for the Penguins today because they’re taking on the Cubs, who got rid of my New Daddy a long time ago. I want the Cubs to lose every game because I love my New Daddy! Are you proud of me, New Daddy?

Jay Cutler: Meh.

Reilly: Aww, New Daddy loves me and doesn’t want to admit it.

Emmitt: Oh Il-nam, this remind me of the relationship I has with my twin cousin where he love me, but I does not love him. But I confuse. Why do they call it relationship when there are no ship anywhere? Ship are the house that drive on the ocean if you never heards of it.

Reilly: Thanks, Emmitt, but I think we all know what ships are.

Tollefson: Kevin, don’t dismiss Emmitt so quickly. When I traveled abroad to third-world countries, I found some women and told them they could get all the food and water they wanted on my ship. I heard them saying they didn’t know what a ship was in their native tongue, and they marveled at it once they saw it. Little did they know that they would receive no food or water on my ship and that they’d become slaves in my compound here in America.

Reilly: Tolly, stop bragging about how cool you are. I wish I could travel abroad and capture women slaves, but Mother won’t even let me cross the street unless she’s holding my hand.

Joe Biden: I like this idea about holding hands. I remember when I was on my last date, I went with this cute little number to the movies and I held her hand. She was the perfect age, 6 years old, and I was about to begin my campaign to run for, you know, run for the thing. The thing that’s the job that gets you into the, you know the house, the house that’s white, I forget what they call it, the house that’s white. They give me papers to sign there, and I tell them I’m not signing anything until I get some lemoncakes and choco-choco chip ice cream on the side. Reminds me of when I lured those kids into my ice cream truck, and they were never seen or heard from again.

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, did anyone hear what Creepy Joe just said!? Every week, he says something creepier and creepier, and this one takes the cake, and let me tell you, no one knows more about cake than I do, and everyone agrees. But Creepy Joe Biden, who drives an ice cream truck – and let me tell you, he is a total disgrace driving the ice cream truck, probably the biggest disgrace of an ice cream truck driver anyone has ever seen, and believe me, I’m a much better ice cream truck driver than Creepy Joe, and everyone agrees. And my ice cream – it’s the best! No one has better ice cream than I do, not even Creepy Joe Biden, who has the worst ice cream anyone has ever seen, and everyone agrees!

Wolfley: DONALD, I WOULD LIKE TO CHALLENGE YOU TO AN ICE CREAM COMPETITION. NO ONE MAKES BETTER ICE CREAM THAN ME. MY SECRET INGREDIENT IS THE SAUCE I HAVE ON MY BOYS.

Reilly: Guys, I don’t care about your stupid ice cream because Mother says my teeth will rot if I eat ice cream. What I care about is protecting New Daddy. I brought in Doug Baldwin to shoot the Bears. Shoot them, Doug, shoot them!

Doug Baldwin: I’m not Alec Baldwin, dude. I’m Doug Baldwin, and I’m my own person!

Reilly: Shut up, you idiot, shoot the Bears now! I’ll kill them all, and New Daddy will love me!

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you’re talking about animals you can shoot, Kevin. Let’s talk about deer, Kevin. What about rabbits, Kevin? Let’s not forget about birds, Kevin, and there are lots of types of birds, Kevin. How about lions, Kevin? Don’t forget about elephants, Kevin. We can discuss rhinoceros hunting, Kevin. And let’s not forget about Kevin Reilly hunting, Kevin. Shoot him, Alec, shoot him, Alec!

Alec Baldwin: BANG! BANG! BANG! I care about gun control, BANG! BANG! BANG! WAHHH I’M SO STRESSED THAT I SHOT SOMEONE, PLEASE FEEL SORRY FOR ME BECAUSE I HAVE TO GO TO THERAPY, BANG! BANG! BANG!

Reilly: AHHHHH, PLEASE STOP SHOOTING AT ME, ALEC! YOUR AGENT SAID YOU WERE BUSY SO THAT’S WHY I GOT THAT USELESS DOUG BALDWIN! We’ll be back after this!

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Steelers beat the Browns in Cleveland last week, but their offense continued to struggle. They put together only two touchdown drives, scoring 15 points in the process. This was once again an instance in which they failed to score more than 23 points in a game. They’ve done so once this year against Denver in Week 5.

This could be a second instance if the Bears don’t improve defensively. Chicago’s defense looked pitiful last week, allowing the 49ers to enter their 30-yard line on every single drive. That’s right – a Jimmy Garoppolo-led offense didn’t punt once. The Bears were horrible against the run, which doesn’t bode well in their matchup against Najee Harris.

Then again, it’s not a given that the Steelers will move the chains at will. Their offensive line is much worse than San Francisco’s, and Khalil Mack should return this week. Akiem Hicks figures to be healthier as well after playing like a shell of his former self this past Sunday.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: I wonder if Matt Nagy learned anything while recovering from his minor illness. Nagy didn’t coach last week, so it wasn’t a surprise that Justin Fields had his best game. Fields was a magician on the ground, scrambling for more than 100 yards. He also did well as a passer; he would’ve thrown two touchdowns had Cole Kmet not dropped a pass in the end zone.

Fields will need to use his legs because the Steelers will dominate the line of scrimmage. T.J. Watt is going to be a nightmare for Chicago’s putrid offensive line. If Nagy insists on having Fields serve as a pocket passer, the rookie quarterback will just be a sitting duck like he was against the Buccaneers. Conversely, if Nagy allows Fields to freelance like he did versus San Francisco, the Bears will stand a chance to have some offensive success.

Fields will need to use his legs because Khalil Herbert has a very difficult matchup. The Steelers just clamped down on Nick Chubb, so they’ll be able to handle Herbert.

RECAP: The Steelers have four wins this year. None of them have been by more than eight points. They’ve engaged in close games because their offense is so stagnant that it can’t pull away from the opposition. Even the Geno Smith-led Seahawks took the Steelers to overtime.

I’m going with the Bears. This won’t be a huge wager because I don’t trust the Bears’ offensive line to keep Fields upright, but I’d be somewhat surprised if the Steelers ended up winning this game by double digits.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m probably going to end up betting a small number of units on the Bears. I’ll be kicking myself if I’m right about the Steelers not deserving to be favored by nearly a touchdown because of their offensive ineptitude.

SATURDAY NOTES: We had some bad news on the injury report for the Bears. Not only is Khalil Mack sidelined, but the Bears will be missing Eddie Jackson as well. This is not ideal, but I still like Chicago a little bit.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Despite the Bears missing some key defensive pieces, this line hasn’t moved at all, which is rather shady.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Sharp money on the Steelers has moved this line to -7. I still like the Bears a bit because their inept offense has issues covering large spreads, as we saw when they battled Geno Smith. That said, Justin Fields could revert to being a turnover machine. This will be a two-unit bet. This line is +7 -115 in most places, though both Bookmaker and FanDuel have it at a slight discount (+7 -113 and 114, respectively).