NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 11, 2021

Cincinnati Bengals (5-4) at Las Vegas Raiders (5-4)
Line: Bengals by 3. Total: 50.5.
Sunday, Nov. 21, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Bengals.

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CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The Bengals moved the chains well against the Browns despite losing 41-16 in their previous game. They nearly outgained the Browns with 348 net yards compared to the Browns’ 361, but they suffered such a horrible defeat because they killed themselves with sloppy mistakes. For example, Joe Burrow threw a pick-six on the Cleveland goal line during the opening drive, and then Ja’Marr Chase lost a fumble to set up another Cleveland score.

I expect the Bengals will be more careful with the ball coming off such an ugly defeat. I don’t think they’ll have issues moving the chains either. The Raiders looked helpless trying to defend a previously struggling Chiefs offense this past Sunday night. They have so many holes on their defense that Patrick Mahomes was able to exploit, so I expect Burrow to do the same thing with his many weapons.

Joe Mixon should also perform well. Devontae Booker and Darrel Williams are coming off positive performances versus the Raiders, and Mixon is way more talented than both of them.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: The Raiders have looked like a completely different offense without Henry Ruggs. It wasn’t like Ruggs was posting monstrous numbers or anything, but he served as a huge distraction with his downfield play-making ability. With Ruggs gone, teams aren’t concerned with the deep ball. That’s right, teams are just not that worried about Zay Jones and a decrepit Desean Jackson.

The Bengals, like the Giants and Chiefs, can play closer to the line of scrimmage and take away Darren Waller. Derek Carr will still connect with Hunter Renfrow, but the drives will be sporadic because the Raiders can’t pass protect very well. Cincinnati will dominate up front.

The Raiders’ only hope is establishing Josh Jacobs. There’s some opportunity for that to happen – Nick Chubb rushed for 137 yards against the Bengals in Week 9 – but there’s no doubt that Cleveland’s offensive line is much better than Las Vegas’ front.

RECAP: The Raiders are a team that thrives on emotion, but I don’t know how they’ll bounce back from last week’s loss to the Chiefs. On one hand, they’re coming off an embarrassing defeat, so if they’re a good team, they’ll be able to rebound nicely. On the other hand, the Raiders put so much into that battle against their arch rival, yet they were outplayed by a wide margin. Given everything the Raiders have endured this season, it all may have just been too much. The Raiders are prone to late-season collapses, and this might be the beginning of another one.

I have more faith in the Bengals playing harder and better in this game. They, too, are coming off a humiliating defeat, but their loss to the Browns was more about them committing dumb errors like the pick-six at the goal line or the Chase fumble. I like Cincinnati to cover, but with some uncertainty, I’m not going to bet this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I have nothing new to add here at this time. I don’t really know what to expect from the Raiders from a motivational standpoint because it seems as though their season might be in a tailspin. Then again, perhaps they’ll rebound from an ugly defeat.

SATURDAY NOTES: Still nothing, as the injury report didn’t unearth anything. I could make good cases for either side, and the sharps haven’t bet either team yet. I’m almost tempted to switch to the Raiders to fade all of this absurd public action.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This line is beginning to creep up, so the sharps don’t seem high on the Raiders. I’m not touching this game, barring some major injury surprise.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m going to make a small bet on the Raiders just to fade this public action. There are many FOMO bets coming in on the Bengals, and some viable +3s have appeared. You can get +3 -127 at Bookmaker, which is not bad. The sharps haven’t touched this game, but I think there’s some value with the +3 -127, given that this spread was a pick ’em on the advance line.

Arizona Cardinals (8-2) at Seattle Seahawks (3-6)
Line: Seahawks by 3. Total: 45.5.
Sunday, Nov. 21, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Seahawks.

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ARIZONA OFFENSE: It’s currently unclear if Kyler Murray will play in this game. The latest update is Kliff Kingsbury saying that “it’s going to be close” if Murray can take the field this Sunday.

Based on those words, it doesn’t sound like Murray will be 100 percent. Perhaps it’s all a ruse, but Murray hasn’t really been close to playing in each of the past two weeks. If Murray is limited, it’ll really hurt the offense because he won’t be able to escape pressure, which he’ll have to do if the Cardinals are missing offensive linemen once again. The Seahawks have done a better job of getting to the quarterback lately, so Murray’s potential lack of mobility will be a huge deal.

The Seahawks also have improved their run defense after beginning slowly in that regard to start the season. They stuffed Alvin Kamara when he was a runner a few Monday nights ago, for example. They tend to struggle, however, when defending receiving backs, so perhaps James Conner will be able to contribute that way.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: There are health concerns with Seattle’s quarterback as well. Russell Wilson looked nowhere near 100 percent in his premature return from a broken finger. The result was the first shutout loss of his career.

Wilson will be healthier this week, but it remains to be seen if there will be a drastic improvement. If not, the Seahawks will obviously be inconsistent offensively. If so, then Wilson will be able to make numerous deep connections with his talented receivers.

The Seahawks’ best shot at moving the chains is via the ground attack. Chris Carson will be back this week, and he’ll find himself in a plus matchup. The Cardinals were once stout against the rush, but that has changed ever since losing J.J. Watt.

RECAP: If you were to tell me Wilson will be 100 percent for this game, I’d place a huge bet on the Seahawks. I love betting elite quarterbacks coming off a loss, and Wilson has a great track record when bouncing back following a defeat. However, Wilson doesn’t appear to be healthy, and there’s nothing worse than backing a banged-up signal-caller.

Speaking of banged-up signal-callers, Murray may not be 100 percent either. He’s had ample time to recover, but the fact that the Cardinals haven’t been quick to rule him in for this game tells me that he might be playing hurt as well.

This game, as a result, is a complete debacle. I won’t be betting it with all the question marks. I’ll side with the Seahawks for the value only; they were -1 on the advance line, and now they’re +2.5 (you can bet it up to +3 to get the key number.)

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s good news for both teams. Russell Wilson was a full participant in practice Wednesday, while Kyler Murray also practiced, albeit on a limited basis. I was hoping for something more lopsided. I’m leaning toward betting Seattle with Wilson practicing fully.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m betting the Seahawks. Russell Wilson practiced fully all week. Perhaps he’s not 100 percent yet, but he’ll be much better this week. Coming off a loss in a must-win, Wilson will play well, in all likelihood. Meanwhile, Kyler Murray was limited all week. He may start, but he might not be able to use his legs, which will be a problem without DeAndre Hopkins and Justin Pugh. Also, I didn’t mention this, but this game will be the fourth time all year the Seahawks will have their entire offensive line intact. Two of the three games were blowout wins over the Colts and Jaguars. The third was last week’s shutout loss to Green Bay, but Wilson was not himself. I expect him to be this week after practicing fully thrice.

TEASER ADDED: I’m teasing the Seahawks +7.5 and Cowboys +8.5. Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott are great quarterbacks, so they should be able to keep these games close.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m glad I teased this game because the Seahawks are now favored by three. I feel foolish for not locking in the regular bet. I loved the Seahawks at +2.5, but not as much at -3.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m going to get to this one first because this spread is moving to -3.5 in some sportsbooks. That’s because both Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins are out; not to mention Justin Pugh. The best -3 I can see right now is for -130 vig at BetUS. I’m not in love with this game, as good teams tend to play better with their backup quarterbacks (except Baltimore, apparently). However, given that the Seahawks are coming off a shutout loss and desperately need to win this game, I think they’re the right side. I’ll bet two units on them. The sharps were on Seattle earlier in the week.

Dallas Cowboys (7-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-4)
Line: Chiefs by 2. Total: 55.5.
Sunday, Nov. 21, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Are the Chiefs back? This is something we’ll learn soon, but it certainly looked like most of their problems were fixed against the Raiders. They posted 41 points, as Patrick Mahomes accumulated more than 400 passing yards for the first time all year.

Mahomes will be able to exploit some of the liabilities on the Cowboys’ defense if he’s truly back to normal. Dallas struggles to defend tight ends, so Mahomes will be able to connect with Travis Kelce early and often. Also, while Trevon Diggs has been a turnover machine this year, he can still be beaten in coverage because of all the gambles he takes, which will end badly against Tyreek Hill.

The Cowboys are at their weakest against the run. They were gashed by the two Denver backs a couple of weeks ago, so we may see another AFC West team ram the ball down their throats. It’s always difficult to trust Andy Reid to stick to the ground game, but the Chiefs ran the ball adequately against the Raiders, so perhaps this is the beginning of a trend.

DALLAS OFFENSE: Both Mahomes and Dak Prescott did well to rebound last week. Prescott had to bounce back from just one game, but did so masterfully after his horrendous performance against Denver. Prescott was banged up in that contest, so it was apparent that he was much healthier versus the Falcons.

Prescott, like Mahomes, will be able to exploit some weaknesses in the opposing defense. The Chiefs have allowed tons of passing yardage this year. They’ve improved in that regard lately, thanks to an improved pass rush and a new scheme, but Prescott is protected very well. He’ll have ample time to shred the Kansas City secondary.

The Chiefs have also improved versus the run lately, thanks to Chris Jones moving inside. I expect this to hold up, as Ezekiel Elliott may not have the strong performance many are expecting.

RECAP: If you could tell me for sure that the Chiefs are back to their former selves, I would bet them. If they’re the same, dominant team we expected them to be entering the year, then this spread is too small. The Cowboys are a great team, but Kansas City has the potential to be No. 1 in all power rankings.

I’m not going to bet this game, but I’ll be picking the Chiefs to cover. If they are back to their dominant selves then they’ll be able to win this game by more than a field goal. Conversely, if they revert the turnover-prone team that struggled to beat Daniel Jones and No Cookie Jordan Love, they’ll definitely lose to Dallas. The sharps have been betting the Chiefs thus far, so we know where they stand.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I doubt I’ll be betting this game. I need to see if the Chiefs’ performance last week was a fluke. I’m also interested to see if their defense can keep up their improved play after beating up on a regressing Derek Carr, Daniel Jones and No Cookie Jordan Love.

SATURDAY NOTES: Amari Cooper won’t play because of a cold, but that won’t affect my pick. I’m still going with a slight lean on the Chiefs.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Tyron Smith is sidelined, so there might be some sharp money coming in on the Chiefs, so if you plan on betting them, I’d do it now.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s some sharp money coming in on the Cowboys even though Tyron Smith was ruled out. If you like the Chiefs, you can get them for -2 -109 at Bookmaker.

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3-1) at Los Angeles Chargers (5-4)
Line: Chargers by 6. Total: 47.5.
Sunday, Nov. 21, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

Here’s the Top Stocks to Buy page, where I told you about GameStop last year. It will be updated once per week, or sooner if there is any emergency news.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: It’s still unclear if Ben Roethlisberger will survive his current ailment, but those of us who are optimistic about his recovery expect him to be on the field this Sunday night. If so, the Steelers will have a huge upgrade at quarterback. As bad as Roethlisberger has been this year, he’s so much better than Mason Rudolph, who was a total disaster in his tie game against the Lions.

Roethlisberger’s presence will be important, if only as a distraction. As long as Roethlisberger is under center, the Chargers will have to respect the pass, especially with Pat Freiermuth emerging as a potent weapon over the middle of the field. The Chargers struggle against tight ends, so defending Freiermuth will be a problem.

Roethlisberger serving as a distraction will allow the Steelers to have more success running the ball. The Chargers have a woeful ground defense that won’t have a chance against Najee Harris unless they completely sell out against the run, which they won’t be able to do if Roethlisberger is under center.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: Remember that crazy Chargers-Browns game that was a 47-42 win in favor of the former? The Chargers haven’t been very explosive since that game, save for their win over the Eagles, who played right into their hands with an ineffective defensive scheme against Justin Herbert.

Excluding the victory over the Eagles, the Chargers haven’t tallied more than 24 points in any game since beating Cleveland. There’s been a change since that game, which would be the health of Mike Williams. The talented wideout has been dealing with a knee issue since that contest, which is why he hasn’t been very productive recently. Williams was on a tear to start the season, so it’s understandable why the Chargers haven’t produced as many points with him hurt.

The weakness of the Steelers’ defense is the cornerback position, which the Chargers won’t be able to fully exploit because of Williams’ ineffectiveness. Keenan Allen should still have a strong performance, and Austin Ekeler will have some nice gains, but the Chargers won’t score very often against Pittsburgh’s stalwart defense.

RECAP: The Steelers automatically have to be considered the side, given that the Chargers play nothing but close games. Seven of their nine games this year have been decided by seven or fewer points. Five were by five or fewer points. It’s likely that this contest will be decided by one score, which points to the six-point underdog by itself.

There’s more to support a pick on the Steelers. We’re getting great line value with them – the advance spread was Pittsburgh -3 – and the Steelers will have way more fans in the crowd. Also, the Chargers being limited offensively by Williams’ injury is a real factor. He’ll be healthier at some point, but until he recovers fully, it’ll be difficult to trust the Chargers as a favorite of more than a field goal.

This spread is currently off the board in many sportsbooks, but you can currently get +6 at FanDuel. There are questions about Roethlisberger’s availability, but if you’re confident that he will play – he’s medicated, after all – then it would be worth locking in the +6 right now because the line will drop to the +4/+4.5 range if he’s declared the starter. If he is, I’ll be betting the Steelers.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I saw a report saying Mason Rudolph is preparing to start, which makes sense because Ben Roethlisberger’s immune system is diminished. I normally like backing No. 2 quarterbacks on good teams, but Rudolph might be an exception because he’s terrible. I’m also unsure if the Steelers are even a good team because their offensive line is a total disaster, while their defense is not elite like it was in recent years.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Steelers will be down T.J. Watt, Joe Haden and Kevin Dotson, plus there’s no telling if Minkah Fitzpatrick will play because he’s on the illness list. The Chargers, meanwhile, have three players on this list, including Joey Bosa and Drue Tranquill. Ben Roethlisberger was cleared to play, which, at first instinct, made me think about betting the Steelers. However, Roethlisberger had symptoms throughout the week, so he might be winded in this game. That could hurt the Steelers, so I’m switching my pick to the Chargers. My unit count will be determined by who’s available to play.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Joey Bosa and Drue Tranquill will play, which might be why this line increased to six. The sharps have been on the Chargers thus far.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Chargers at -5.5 and -6. This line is now -6.5 in sharper sportsbooks, but you can still get -6 -115 at BetUS and Bovada. I’m not going to bet this game at this inflated number.

New York Giants (3-6) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3)
Line: Buccaneers by 11. Total: 49.5.
Monday, Nov. 22, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Buccaneers.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Tampa Bay, where tonight the New York Vagiants take on the Tampa Bay Schmuckaneers. Guys, I don’t care about this game at all, and we don’t have to talk about it because we have a special guest here tonight. I guess this special guest heard about how cool I am, so they wanted to be on the broadcast with me!

Emmitt: Ji-yeong, I real scare of guest. Guest are the guy who dress in white sheet and they die and they scare me so bad I make poop in my underpants. This is why I hate the holiday Halloween. A lot of tiny guest comed to my house to eat candy. I throw candy at him’s face and then shut the door before he can hunt me.

Reilly: Emmitt, I think you mean ghosts; not guests. I’m scared of ghosts, too. Mother says they’re not real, but I still make pee-pee in my bed when I think the ghosts are haunting me. But anyway, let’s introduce our guest, he’s a guy who works for ESPN, Adam Schefter!

Schefter: I’ve been suspended from ESPN, so it’s great to be with you guys! I’ve taken 716 virus tests, and I have tested negative for each of them, and I’m reporting that my 717th test just came back negative, so we’re ready to go!

Tollefson: Schefter, I can appreciate all the negative tests. I make my female slaves take the virus tests whenever I load them onto my slave ships. I run a very professional operation, so I separate the female slaves who test positive in the cargo hold of the ship.

Reilly: Tolly, you’re such a smart businessman. But Schefter is here to report some news. Schefter, what do you have for us?

Schefter: Thanks, Kevin. According to my sources, and I’ve received the green light from Ozzie Newsome, Matt Millen and Vinny Cerrato to report this, the woman killed by Henry Ruggs in the drunk driving incident a couple of weeks ago was plotting to kill Henry Ruggs while drinking and driving, too. My sources also tell me that my 718th virus test will come back negative, Kevin.

Joe Biden: That’s good that you’re testing all the time, young man, it reminds me of this young Swedish man, a Swedish baseball player named, you know, you the guy. He was in the Swedish Baseball League before coming to the Major League Baseball, a lot like Bjorn Robinson. I remind me of that guy. He was a great man and a lady’s man at that. I’m a lady’s man, too. My ladies are not available during the work week because they’re currently taking arts-and-crafts classes at Meadowbrook Preschool, but we go on dates to the drive-in movie theater and sometimes stay home and listen to the television, I mean the record player.

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, did anyone just hear what Sleepy, Creepy Joe just said!? He compared himself to the great Bjorn Robinson. Great man that Bjorn Robinson! Almost as great as me, but he’s not that great, but almost as great, but not as great as me! But he’s much greater than Computer Mouse Forehead Derek Carr. Got a forehead like a computer mouse, that Computer Mouse Forehead Derek Carr! But Sleepy, Creepy Joe compared himself to the great Bjorn Robinson! I compared myself to the great Abraham Lincoln, and the corrupt mainstream media said that I was racist and delusional, but Creepy Joe can compare himself to Bjorn Robinson, and he can get away with it. Look at all the cameras! They’re turning off all the cameras! The mainstream media is trying to cover up their lies, and all they do is lie about me!

Wolfley: DONALD, PLEASE STOP TALKING ABOUT LIGHTS. I WAS ONCE KIDNAPPED AND TIED IN A CHAIR, AND MY CAPTOR MADE ME TELL HIM HOW MANY LIGHTS THERE WERE. THERE WERE FOUR LIGHTS, BUT HE KEPT TRYING TO CONVINCE ME THAT THERE WERE FIVE LIGHTS.

Reilly: Shut up, Wolf, no one cares about that. Why are we glossing over this breaking news? If reporters can make guilty people into victims, maybe I can use this to deflect on everything in my e-mails. New Daddy, can you please ask Adam Schefter to make me into a victim?

Jay Cutler: Hey Adam, can you tell that kid to shut the hell up?

Schefter: According to my sources, there’s a man here who will shut people up as we await the results of my 719th virus test. That man is Alec Baldwin, Jay.

Alec Baldwin: BANG! BANG! BANG! I’m not shooting you on purpose even though I’m pointing the gun right at you and pulling the trigger! BANG! BANG! BANG! This is totally an accident! BANG! BANG! BANG!

Reilly: Please stop shooting me! All I wanted was to be the victim!

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you’re talking about victims, Kevin. Let’s talk about other victims, Kevin. Let’s begin with Maureen Presoctt, Kevin. How about Steven Orth, Kevin? What do you think about Case Becker, Kevin? Let’s have a chat about Arthur Himbry, Kevin. Care to issue an opinion on Tatum Riley, Kevin? Thoughts on Kenny Jones, Kevin? Maybe Kevin Reilly is next, Kevin!

Reilly: YES! THAT’S EXACTLY WHAT I WANT TO BE! A VICTIM SO THAT I’M VINDICATED FROM MY E-MAILS, WHICH WE’LL GET TO ONE OF THESE WEEKS, I SWEAR! We’ll be back after this!

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The sky is falling in Tampa Bay, apparently, as the entire national media has been asking what’s wrong with the Buccaneers. Most of that is directed at the defense, but the offense scored just 19 points against a disappointing Redskin defense this past Sunday.

Those 19 points were misleading. Early drives were disrupted by fluky interceptions, and the Buccaneers didn’t get to keep possession late in the afternoon because the Redskins engineered drives that lasted forever. New England had the ball for only 21 minutes. That won’t happen again, so there will automatically be more points scored, even without factoring in the matchup.

This is a good matchup for the Buccaneers. The Giants have some excellent players in the secondary, but they blitz at the 10th-highest rate in the NFL, and elite quarterbacks like Brady eat up the blitz. Brady will also exploit some of the liabilities, namely at linebacker, as the Giants sorely miss Blake Martinez.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Tampa’s defense hasn’t been on par this year, but there’s some cause for optimism. That’s because one of the team’s primary cornerbacks, Sean Murphy-Bunting, who has been out since the season opener, is likely to return for this contest. The secondary has been torched by almost everyone this year, so Murphy-Bunting’s return will be a huge boon.

This is obviously poor news for Daniel Jones, who didn’t have a good matchup in the first place. The Buccaneers blitz at the second-highest rate in the NFL, and Jones is woeful versus the blitz. Check out the numbers: When not blitzed this year, Jones has a 66.8 completion percentage and an 8:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. When blitzed, Jones completes 59.5 percent of his passes, and he has no touchdowns compared to two picks.

Jones’ problems will be magnified by his team’s inability to run the ball. Saquon Barkley figures to return from injury, but the Buccaneers have an elite ground defense that will be able to clamp down on the talented back.

RECAP: The public is down on the Buccaneers, as evidenced by their reluctance to bet on them at a high rate in this game. This line is “only” -11 as a result when it was -12.5 per the advance figure. We’re getting some value, though not really a substantial amount.

What I like the most is the matchup. The Buccaneers’ front will be able to overwhelm the Giants’ offensive line, and Jones, who is weak to the blitz, could self-destruct with multiple turnovers. Meanwhile, Brady will be focused coming off two consecutive losses. I think the Buccaneers are a solid wager for those reasons.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Richard Sherman was placed on injured reserve, which won’t be a big deal if Sean Murphy-Bunting can make his return from injury.

SATURDAY NOTES: Vita Vea won’t play, but Sean Murphy-Bunting may return this week. This is a big boost to Tampa Bay’s ailing secondary. Meanwhile, the Giants have some good news and bad news as well. The bad news is that Logan Ryan was ruled out, which will hurt against Tampa’s terrific receiving corps. The good news is that Andrew Thomas will return, so the Giants’ offensive line won’t be a total train wreck. Still, Daniel Jones is very weak to the blitz, so I still like the Buccaneers as a small play.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: No sharp movement on this game yet, so stay tuned to see if that changes.

FINAL THOUGHTS: No injury surprises; Rob Gronkowski and Saquon Barkley will play, as expected. I still like the Buccaneers, and the sharps are on them as well. The line has moved to -11.5 in most sportsbooks, with Bookmaker having the best vig at -108.

FINAL THOUGHTS II: It appears as though the previously mentioned sharp action may have been phantom movement because a surge of pro money has come in on the Giants, dragging this line down to -10 (at Bookmaker).