Week 13 NFL Picks

NFL Picks (Week 1, 2008): 11-5 (+$1,470)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2008): 7-7-1 (-$100)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2008): 10-6 (+$860)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2008): 6-7 (-$350)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2008): 8-6 (+$230)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2008): 9-5 (+$2,260)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2008): 4-10 (-$770)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2008): 9-4-1 (+$1,620)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2008): 6-8 (-$980)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2008): 4-10 (-$2,690)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2008): 9-7 (-$170)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2008): 6-9-1 (-$1,090)

NFL Picks (Reg Season 2008): 89-84-3 (+$290)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Dec. 1, 4:50 p.m. ET.


NFL Picks Week 13 – Early Games
Titans at Lions, Seahawks at Cowboys, Cardinals at Eagles, Dolphins at Rams, Ravens at Bengals, 49ers at Bills, Saints at Buccaneers, Giants at Redskins, Colts at Browns, Panthers at Packers

NFL Picks Week 13 – Late Games
Falcons at Chargers, Broncos at Jets, Steelers at Patriots, Chiefs at Raiders, Bears at Vikings, Jaguars at Texans


Why the split?

Starting Week 2, 2008, I’ll be splitting my NFL Picks into two separate pages. There were complaints that a page comprised of 16 detailed selections took too long to load. A page as long as that also ate up a ton of bandwith. I apologize for any inconvenience this may cause, but I feel as though it’ll make things better and help the site operate smoother in the long run.

Also, check out the new feature below. It’ll allow you to pick games against me and everyone else. Registering takes just one second. Keep in mind that this registration IS DIFFERENT than the forum.





Overrated NFL Teams:
A good handicapper is always aware of which teams are overrated and underrated by the public. I’ll attempt to list the teams I think are the most overrated and underrated each week.

1. Washington Redskins – I know the Redskins just lost to the talented Cowboys and Steelers, and that’s nothing to be ashamed of. However, they were horrible the three games prior to those defeats. They lost to the Rams. They needed a missed field goal from Phil Dawson to beat the Browns. They had to manage a second-half comeback to knock off the Lions. And they beat the Seahawks by only three points. The team that upset Dallas and Philadelphia in consecutive road games is long gone.

2. Carolina Panthers – Carolina’s performance the past two weeks is eerily similar to Washington’s mid-season struggles versus its aforementioned inferior opponents. The Panthers had trouble shaking off the Raiders and Lions since their bye. All the momentum they had from beating the Saints and Cardinals is history.

3. Denver Broncos – I’ll give the Broncos respect for winning two tough games on the road. But those victories may have made people forget just how awful their defense is. The loss to Oakland was not a fluke.

4. Buffalo Bills – The Bills took advantage of five turnovers in a blowout victory at Kansas City. The Chiefs are 1-10. Bettors may quickly forget that Buffalo lost to the Dolphins, Jets, Patriots and Browns in consecutive weeks.



Underrated NFL Teams:
A good handicapper is always aware of which teams are overrated and underrated by the public. I’ll attempt to list the teams I think are the most overrated and underrated each week.

1. Philadelphia Eagles – The tie. The Donovan McNabb benching. The third-and-one ineptitude. Everyone is down on the Eagles now, and rightfully so. However, Philadelphia is a talented team with a lot of proud veterans. I’ll be shocked if they don’t rebound.

2. San Diego Chargers – I’ve had the Chargers on my overrated list this year, and deservedly so, but the public is now really down on 4-7 San Diego. Looking closely at the results, they’ve lost all but one of their games by a touchdown. Three of those defeats came by two points or less! With a bit of luck, the Chargers could be 8-3 right now. They should be able to finish the year with a winning ATS record, especially as underdogs.

3. Baltimore Ravens – Great defense + efficient offense = underrated team. That’s why the Ravens have covered five of six games since Oct. 12.

4. Green Bay Packers – I know they were just debacled on Monday Night Football, but don’t forget that the Packers clobbered the Bears and nearly knocked off the Titans. They just had a bad game.















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My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5
Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6
Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)