NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 2, 2009

NFL Picks (Preseason 2009): 8-7-2 (+$130)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2009): 9-7 (+$285)

NFL Picks (2009): 17-14-2 (+$415)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Sept. 21, 4:15 p.m. ET.

Go to Week 2 NFL Picks – Early Games

Seattle Seahawks (1-0) at San Francisco 49ers (1-0)
Line: 49ers by 1. Total: 39.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 1): Pick.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 1): Seahawks -1.
Sunday, 4:05 ET

The Game. Edge: Seahawks.
NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

I’ve gotten plenty of e-mails and Facebook messages from people asking me when Emmitt on the Brink will be back. It’s coming on Friday! Last year, Bill Belichick was caught cheating again, and Roger Goodell made Emmitt take over as the Patriots coach as punishment. This year, Emmitt is back as the official head coach and kicks things off against Eric Mangini’s Jets. Mangini has a game plan that will really confuse Emmitt. Find out what it is Friday.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: In case you haven’t heard, the Seahawks are back. Matt Hasselbeck and his receivers are healthy again, and the defense has improved. I know that beating the Rams 28-0 doesn’t really mean much, but Seattle’s return to prominence is something I’ve been calling for all spring and summer.

It seems like the only problem the Seahawks have is their running game. I know Julius Jones had 117 rushing yards on 19 carries Sunday, but that was against the Rams. I can’t see Seattle establishing Jones against a fierce 49ers ground defense that limited the two Arizona backs to 2.9 yards per attempt.

Without a ground game going, Hasselbeck may have to do things on his own here, which is a scary proposition. San Francisco’s defense suffocated Kurt Warner on Sunday, sacking him three times, and forcing him into two picks and a fumble.

I don’t trust the 49ers’ secondary, but I like their pass rushers going against Sean Locklear and Ray Willis. If Hasselbeck is constantly in obvious passing downs, San Francisco will collect a number of sacks.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Mike Singletary’s game plan is simple – he’s going to run the ball as much as possible, and then he’s going to run the ball some more. Frank Gore mustered less than 1.5 yards per carry Sunday, but Singletary stuck with his strategy – and it worked.

The Seahawks just surrendered 4.2 yards per rush to Steven Jackson and his abomination of an offensive line, so Gore should be able to cross the 1.5 YPC barrier. Assuming that happens, Shaun Hill will be able to orchestrate some play-action attempts against a weak secondary on the few occasions that Singletary calls for a pass play.

RECAP: The 49ers are getting no love. Both Seattle and San Francisco are 1-0, and the latter has the much more impressive victory. Yet, the host is just -1.5 and the public is backing the visitor.

I really like this San Francisco team. The players have embodied their coach; the squad is tough, it runs the ball and it plays good defense. That sort of team tends to cover often because the public likes to put its money on more flashy squads.

I love the 49ers in this spot. The Seahawks are generally terrible on the road, and they may not even be focused for this contest. After battling the Niners, who sucked last year, Seattle has to deal with Chicago and Indianapolis. I seriously doubt the Seahawks will bring their “A” game to San Francisco.

The Psychology. Edge: 49ers.

Though the 49ers are 1-0, I’m not sure the Seahawks will take them seriously with games against the Bears and Colts coming up. Seattle is in a BREATHER ALERT. Meanwhile, this is a huge game for San Francisco.

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.
Apparently, not many are believers in Mike Singletary’s 49ers yet.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 60% (105,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

History: Seahawks have won 9 of the last 12 meetings.

Seahawks are 10-16 ATS on the road since 2006.

Opening Line: Seahawks -1.

Opening Total: 40.5.

Weather: Sunny, 80 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 2 NFL Pick: 49ers 19, Seahawks 16
49ers -1 (5 Units) — Correct; +$500
Under 39 (.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
49ers 23, Seahawks 10

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-1) at Buffalo Bills (0-1)
Line: Bills by 4.5. Total: 42.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 1): Bills -3.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 1): Bills -4.5.
Sunday, 4:05 ET

The Game. Edge: Bills.
NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

The Bills have lost in so many horrific ways the past numbers of years, it’s hard to determine which one is the most painful. What I do know is that some Bills fans are blaming me for their loss to the Patriots on Monday night. Here’s one hilarious Facebook message I received from a scorned Bills fan.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: If you missed it, Terrell Owens stormed out of the Bills locker room after the game. He later said he just wanted to ~~stare at himself in the mirror~~ go to bed. It obviously had nothing to do with the fact that he caught only two catches for 46 yards. Perhaps Owens wasn’t that mad because he looked at the box score and noticed that Lee Evans had only three grabs for 25 yards.

Trent Edwards settled for all short stuff to avoid embarrassing his offensive line. Plus, the Patriots were taking Owens and Evans away, so Edwards settled for getting the ball to Fred Jackson, Derek Schouman and Shawn Nelson.

Don’t expect a repeat performance here. Tampa Bay has one of the worst defenses in the NFL, so Jackson should be able to set up Edwards with some play-action opportunities. Owens and Evans will easily get open against an anemic secondary.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: If there’s one thing the Buccaneers do well, it’s run the ball. Cadillac Williams looks like a sharp rookie again, while Derrick Ward is a solid threat out of the backfield. The Patriots were able to pound the rock against Buffalo, so that gives me confidence that Cadillac and Ward will be able to do the same.

The problem with Tampa Bay’s offense is Byron Sandwich. He can make all the throws, but he’s horribly inconsistent and his release takes years. I don’t trust him to consistently move the chains in this game, or any contest for that matter.

RECAP: The Bills gave it their best effort against the Patriots and came up short. They were huge underdogs against their arch rival, and after an excruciating loss, they have to come back as favorites against a crap Tampa Bay squad. I don’t know how they can possibly get up for this.

Buffalo is the better team, but I like the Buccaneers here. This is just an incredibly tough spot for the Bills from an emotional perspective.

The Psychology. Edge: Buccaneers.

I don’t know how the Bills can bounce back from Monday night. As huge underdogs, they put everything into that game. They had a win wrapped up, but inexplicably blew it. Now, they have to come back as favorites against an inferior foe? This is a very rough spot for Buffalo.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

People really pounded the Bucs on Friday.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 66% (91,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.

Bills are 12-3 ATS after playing the New England Patriots since 1999.

Bills are 13-4 ATS against losing teams since 2006.

Opening Line: Bills -5.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Sunny, 65 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 2 NFL Pick: Buccaneers 17, Bills 16
Buccaneers +4.5 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Under 42 (.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$55
Bills 33, Buccaneers 20

Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0) at Chicago Bears (0-1)
Line: Steelers by 3. Total: 37.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 1): Steelers -2.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 1): Steelers -3.
Sunday, 4:15 ET

The Game. Edge: Steelers.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

With the 2009 NFL Season underway, I’ll be posting my Jerks of the Week on Wednesdays because I’ll be tied up on Sundays. Jerks of the Week for Sept. 14, 2009 are up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks are: 1) Terrelle Pryor. 2) PETA. 3) Subway Patrons.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: I really hope the Steelers have learned their lesson. The team tried to establish the run Thursday night, but failed miserably. Willie Parker, Rashard Mendenhall and Mewelde Moore embarrassed themselves with a combined rushing average of 1.6 yards per carry.

The Steelers were finally able to move the chains once they got into their 2-minute offense. This really helped out Ben Roethlisberger, who was 11-of-17 for 94 yards and a pick in his normal offense, and 22-of-26 for 269 yards in the last two minutes of the first half and the entire fourth quarter.

Pittsburgh will not be able to run the ball against the Bears, so they’ll need to utilize Moore as an option out of the backfield as much as possible. Chicago will be missing Brian Urlacher, so I don’t think the Steelers will have much trouble putting up ample points on the scoreboard.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: I wouldn’t panic regarding Jay Cutler’s performance Sunday night. He was trying too hard to make a play, and his receivers betrayed him one too many times by cutting off their routes.

Unfortunately, the 3-4 that gave Cutler so much trouble will once again be seen here. Though the Steelers will be without Troy Polamalu, they’ll still be able to force Cutler into some turnovers with Dick LeBeau’s creative blitz schemes.

I think Cutler will once again feel the need to carry the team on his shoulders; Matt Forte won’t be able to run against the Steelers (no one can), so Cutler will be asked to convert long-yardage situations. He’s not on the same page as his receivers yet, so that could mean trouble.

RECAP: This is going to be billed as a tough matchup between two physical teams, but the edge has to go to Pittsburgh because of all the experience. The Steelers are just so good at going on the road into hostile environments and coming out with victories. They were able to do so against the Redskins (Monday Night Football), Patriots and Ravens last year.

I still like the Bears (less without Urlacher), but they’ve been given a tough early-season schedule with Green Bay on the road and now Pittsburgh coming in. Cutler still needs to get on the same page as his receivers, and getting that done against the Steelers is no simple task.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
Big game. No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.

Jay Cutler throws dozens of picks and Brian Urlacher is hurt. Tons of money on the Steelers.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 91% (149,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bears.

Ben Roethlisberger is 61-21 as a starter (48-33 ATS).

Bears are 14-7 ATS after losing to the Packers since 1992.

Opening Line: Steelers -3.

Opening Total: 37.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 70 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 2 NFL Pick: Steelers 24, Bears 17
Steelers -3 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Over 37.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Bears 17, Steelers 14

Baltimore Ravens (1-0) at San Diego Chargers (1-0)
Line: Chargers by 3. Total: 40.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 1): Chargers -3.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 1): Chargers -3.5.
Sunday, 4:15 ET

The Game. Edge: Ravens.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

Last year, I kept you up to date with Bo-Bo’s Fantasy Team (click the link for details). This year, I’ll keep you posted regarding how Bo-Bo and Phat Hair Bro are doing in that fantasy league. Last week, it was a fantasy miracle! Both Bo-Bo and Phat Hair Bro won, meaning they’re both on pace to go 13-0!

Bo-Bo won 85-59 with this starting lineup: Flacco/Owens/Galloway/Curtis/Turner/Gore/Cooley/Akers/Vikings. Don’t know how you can win with Joey Galloway and Kevin Curtis in your lineup, but that’s what makes Bo-Bo such a savvy fantasy player. Meanwhile, Phat Hair Bro won 84-73 with this lineup: Brady/Steve Smith/Breaston/Muhammad/Thomas Jones/Parker/Tony Gonzalez/Carney/Steelers. Again, I don’t know how someone wins with Steve Breaston (who didn’t even play), Muhsin Muhammad and Willie Parker, but a bro with phat hair can get by doing things like that.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Joe Flacco carried Bo-Bo’s team, and he’s one of the main reasons the Ravens are No. 2 in my 2009 NFL Power Rankings. Flacco has made the next step and is now one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL. The coaching staff has more confidence in him, so if you’re expecting Baltimore to be a run-heavy team this year, you’re mistaken.

That said, the Ravens could rely on their ground attack in this game. As we all saw Monday night, the Chargers once again are having major difficulty stopping the run. Even worse for them is the fact that Jamal Williams is banged up. Williams may play – Norv Turner said he’ll be a game-time decision – but even if he’s in there, Baltimore’s powerful offensive line will control the trenches and open up huge holes for Ray Rice and Willis McGahee.

With Baltimore gaining more than five yards per carry, the Chargers will have to commit more defenders to the run, as they did Monday night. This will allow Joe Flacco to beat them with his accurate deep throws. JaMarcus Russell couldn’t take advantage of this consistently, but Flacco will be able to.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: The Chargers’ offensive line is a mess, and it makes you wonder what A.J. Smith was thinking when he passed up on Michael Oher. The front line, particularly the right side, couldn’t pass protect or run block against the Raiders. Trying to keep the Baltimore defenders will be much more of a challenge, especially if center Nick Hardwick is out (also a game-time decision).

LaDainian Tomlinson is the third of a few Chargers who is questionable to play. Tomlinson tweaked his ankle against the Raiders and was absent on the team’s game-winning drive. If Tomlinson doesn’t suit up, it’s not a big deal because the Ravens will have to worry about Darren Sproles. Chris Johnson (playoffs) and Leon Washington (preseason) gave Baltimore fits, so a quicker back could have more success against this defense.

Ultimately, I don’t trust San Diego’s offensive line to protect Philip Rivers. The Raiders sacked Rivers three times and pressured him often. The Ravens should be able to do the same.

RECAP: I considered the Ravens as my September Pick of the Month. The one area that concerns me is that Baltimore is flying across the country to play this game. Some coaches excel in this type of a situation (Andy Reid), while others fail miserably (Eric Mangini). John Harbaugh has never coached a game on the West Coast.

Still, I love Baltimore; I think they’re the better team, and I’m really liking the fact that Cam Cameron used to be Philip Rivers, LaDainian Tomlinson and Antonio Gates’ offensive coordinator. Cameron coached San Diego from 2002 to 2006. As he did against his other former team (Miami), Cameron will come up with a great game plan to beat the Chargers.

The Psychology. Edge: Ravens.

Cam Cameron coached the Chargers from 2002 to 2006. He was Philip Rivers, LaDainian Tomlinson and Antonio Gates’ offensive coordinator.

The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.

The Chargers looked terrible on Monday night. The bettors are responding accordingly.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 88% (115,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Ravens.

Ravens are 7-4 ATS as an underdog under John Harbaugh.

Ravens are 8-3 ATS on the road under John Harbaugh.

Ravens are 9-20 ATS after a home game since 2005.

Opening Line: Chargers -3.5.

Opening Total: 40.5.

Weather: Sunny, 83 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 2 NFL Pick: Ravens 27, Chargers 24
Ravens +3 (5 Units) — Correct; +$500
Over 40.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Ravens 31, Chargers 26

Cleveland Browns (0-1) at Denver Broncos (1-0)
Line: Broncos by 3. Total: 38.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 1): Broncos -4.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 1): Broncos -6.

Sunday, 4:15 ET

The Game. Edge: Broncos.
NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

A few reminders:

There will be a 2010 NFL Mock Draft update on Thursday.

I’ll also have Week 2 Fantasy Weekly Rankings for you on Thursday.

And finally, there are 142 people still alive in the survivor pool. Make sure you get your picks in by noon Eastern on Sunday.

DENVER OFFENSE: The stats say that Kyle Orton was 17-of-28 for 243 yards and a touchdown last week, but 87 of those yards came on the Jail City Miracle Brandon Stokley touchdown. Take that away, and Orton had just 156 yards on 27 attempts, giving him a YPA of 5.8. Orton was also 3-of-12 on third downs.

However, I wouldn’t blame Orton for everything. For one, Brandon Marshall dropped several passes. Marshall tends to kill the Broncos with mistakes like that, so don’t expect that to change. Also, the offensive line surrendered three sacks. Luckily, Cleveland’s defense pales in comparison to Cincinnati’s vastly underrated stop unit.

Orton should have more time in the pocket because the running game will open up more opportunities for him. It’s a shame Knowshon Moreno suffered an injury in the preseason because this was the game I expected him to explode. That could still happen, but for now, Correll Buckhalter is starting. Don’t expect that to last too long.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Ugh. Brady Quinn. Ugh. I know he’s a young quarterback who doesn’t have much experience, but in four career starts, he has three interceptions and a fumble, and has been sacked six times. He also is very hesitant to go deep. A couple more poor starts, and the Browns will have to go back to Derek Anderson, who was the better signal-caller this preseason.

The good news for Cleveland is that Quinn’s only great start came against this Broncos defense. Quinn was 23-of-35 for 239 yards and two touchdowns against Denver on a Thursday night last year.

Quinn might come close to matching those numbers. Denver’s defense still stinks and will allow big gains in the running game. Jamal Lewis and James Davis should have tons of success behind the Browns’ decent offensive line.

RECAP: This is a matchup between two of the worst teams in the league. I like the Browns here because Denver is coming off that improbable emotional victory as a big underdog and now has to battle an inferior opponent as a favorite. I don’t see how the Broncos can bring all of their intensity to this contest; no one really gets up for playing the craptastic Browns, especially after a huge emotional win.

The Psychology. Edge: Browns.

The Broncos go from an underdog that came up with a miracle to a favorite expected to win. Not good. The Browns were embarrassed last week.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Almost equal action, which surprises me.

Percentage of money on Denver: 57% (78,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Browns.

Browns were 12-3 ATS after allowing 30 or more points under Romeo Crennel.

Broncos are 16-10 ATS at home when the line is -3 to +3 the previous 26 instances.

Broncos are 6-24 ATS as a favorite since 2006.

Opening Line: Broncos -3.5.

Opening Total: 39.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 74 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 2 NFL Pick: Browns 24, Broncos 20
Browns +3 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Over 38.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Broncos 27, Browns 6

New York Giants (1-0) at Dallas Cowboys (1-0)
Line: Cowboys by 3. Total: 44.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 1): Cowboys -2.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 1): Cowboys -3.
Sunday, 8:20 ET

The Game. Edge: Giants.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

NEW STADIUM: I did a lot of research Wednesday morning. The Cowboys are opening up a new stadium, so I wanted to see how teams haved fared in their stadium openers in the past. Here’s how the NFL teams opening up their new NFL stadiums have performed in full detail.

If you’re too lazy to click the link, teams playing their first game in a new stadium are 7-6 straight up and 5-8 against the spread since 1997. More interestingly, favorites in this situation are 6-4 straight up but only 3-7 against the spread. If you’ve been reading this site for a while, you know where I’m going with this.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Dallas’ rush defense picked up right where it left off at the end of the 2008 season. In their last two games, the Cowboys were embarrassed against the run, allowing 265 rushing yards to the Ravens and 137 to an Eagles squad that barely ran the ball. On Sunday, it was more of the same. Cadillac Williams and Derrick Ward garnered 159 rushing yards on only 25 carries. Imagine what they could have done with a lead.

The Cowboys are in big trouble here because the Giants are fully capable of ramming the ball down their throats. With Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw going, Eli Manning will be able to convert third downs with his underrated receivers. If you missed it, Steve Smith and Mario Manningham were both very impressive against the Redskins.

Dallas couldn’t sack Byron Leftwich last week, which really shocked me. The Buccaneers were running the ball with ease, so the Cowboys’ sack total was bound to be down. But still, they couldn’t bring down the immobile Leftwich once. I have no confidence that they’ll be able to get to Eli.

DALLAS OFFENSE: The Cowboys won big on Sunday, but struggled to move the chains until the second half, which is when Tony Romo hooked up with Patrick Crayton, Roy Williams and Miles Austin-Jones for huge plays.

However, there’s a major difference between the Buccaneers and Giants. Tampa Bay’s defense is one of the worst in the league. New York’s meanwhile, is on the other side of the spectrum, especially with Osi Umenyiora fully healthy again.

I don’t trust Dallas’ offensive line to hold up against Umenyiora, Justin Tuck and Mathias Kiwanuka. The Giants are great versus the run, so Romo will have to convert third-and-long situations. New York’s pass rush will get to Romo and could force some turnovers.

LINE OFF: Vegas set a good line here because it’s catering toward public perception. Most people believe the Giants and Cowboys are about equal (perhaps believing the former is slightly better), and because Dallas will be opening up a new stadium, that should add a point or two to the spread. A line of Dallas -3 looks right to most people.

But not to me. I’ve already proven that opening up a new stadium hurts the team doing so. With that in mind, the Cowboys being 3-point favorites implies that these squads are equal. And that’s definitely not the case. The Giants are the best team in the NFC, while Dallas is overrated because its defense stinks.

We’re getting a lot of value with the Giants. A fair line would be New York -2 or -3. The oddsmakers are catering toward the public’s ignorance, so let’s take advantage of that. PRESSURE: A new stadium (especially one with a billion-foot jumbotron) comes with big expectations. Jerry Jones is putting tons of pressure on his team to win a game in their new home on national television. As we’ve seen numerous times, the Tony Romo-led Cowboys don’t exactly thrive under pressure. Could we see Tony Aurora Snowmo rearing his ugly head three months early?

ROAD WARRIORS: I love the Giants on the road in hostile environments. They won 11 games in a row as visitors the year they won the Super Bowl. Last season, they went into Philadelphia (as 3-point underdogs), Pittsburgh (as 3-point underdogs… notice a trend?), NFC Champion Arizona (as 3-point favorites) and divisional rival Washington (as 3.5-point favorites), and were triumphant in all four contests. A new stadium with a big jumbotron isn’t going to faze them.

RECAP: This is my September NFL Pick of the Month. It was close with Baltimore over San Diego, but I think we’re getting great line value with the far superior team here. Contrary to popular opinion, the Cowboys are actually at a disadvantage opening up a new stadium; there’s going to be too much pressure and way too many distractions. I fully expect this new trend to be 3-8 by the time this game is over.

The Psychology. Edge: Giants.

It’s opening night in the new stadium, which means plenty of distractions and expectations for the Cowboys.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Close to equal action.

Percentage of money on New York: 57% (124,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Giants.

History: Cowboys have won 4 of the last 6 meetings.

Sucky Stadium: Favorites opening up a new stadium are 3-7 ATS since 1997.

Giants are 21-6 ATS on the road since 2006.

Tony Romo is 19-8 ATS as a starter before Dec. 1.

Tony Romo is 7-1 ATS as a starter in September.

Opening Line: Cowboys -3.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Retractable roof.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 2 NFL Pick: Giants 34, Cowboys 17
Giants +3 (8 Units – September NFL Pick of the Month) — Correct; +$800
Over 45 (.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Giants 33, Cowboys 31

Indianapolis Colts (1-0) at Miami Dolphins (0-1)
Line: Colts by 3. Total: 41.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 1): Colts -4.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 1): Colts -4.5.
Monday, 8:30 ET

The Game. Edge: Colts.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski and Jon Gruden were still in the booth Monday night, so I guess ESPN didn’t like my idea of using homer Kevin Reilly (Eagles Television Announcer who called Maurice Jones-Drew “Maurice Drew-Jones” and Torry Holt “Terry Holt”), Emmitt and Herm. I’m very mad about this, so let’s once again try to convince the people in Bristol to go with these three guys.

Kevin Reilly: Peyton Manning once again throws a touchdown to Randall Wayne. I’m going against him in one of my fantasy leagues, so I’m really getting screwed here, guys.

Herm: Look at the ball. Look at the ball. Look at the ball. Look at the ball. Look at the ball. Look at the ball. Look at the ball. Look at the ball. Look at the ball. Look at the ball. It’s on the… it hit… uhh…

Reilly: Looks like it might have hit the ground. Hopefully Manning’s next pass goes to Alexander Gonzalez.

Emmitt: But Kevin Rog… uhh… Kevin, Anthony Gordon is not playing on the football game. He’s banged up and on the ER, which stand for… uhh… I forget.

Reilly: That’s bad news for me, but I’d still like the Baltimore Colts to get a touchdown because they’re my ninth-favorite team.

Emmitt: Here he go!

Reilly: Touchdown Colts! I am so happy right now!

Herm: Here’s the key to the touchdown! Here’s the key! Here’s the key right now! I have the key! Here’s the key! I’ll show you the key! The key to this touchdown is… uhh… ummm… uhh…

Reilly: The extra point is good! We’ll be back after this commercial break!

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: New year. New running back. Same old story. The Colts didn’t have much success running the ball against the Jaguars, gaining just 2.7 yards per carry against their mediocre defense. The offensive line simply isn’t opening up enough holes for Joseph Addai and Donald Brown.

Of course, that doesn’t really matter as long as Peyton Manning is under center. Manning went 28-of-38 for 301 yards, a touchdown and an interception Sunday, and should be able to post similar numbers here. Miami’s secondary didn’t have much success against Matt Ryan, and I doubt they’ll be able to slow Manning down.

MIAMI OFFENSE: I don’t understand what the Dolphins are trying to do. They drafted Pat White in the second round to run the Wildcat, yet they only used that formation a few times last week. Meanwhile, Miami should have been able to exploit Atlanta’s weak ground defense. Instead, they handed the ball off to Ronnie Brown only 10 times. Brown took those 10 carries and gain 43 yards, so it’s not like he struggled or anything. It just seems like the Dolphins are out-smarting themselves.

The Colts are once again awful versus the rush, but who’s to say that Tony Sparano gives Brown more than 10 carries? Splitting attempts between Brown and Ricky Williams may have worked against last year’s terrible opponents, but it’s not going to fly against the Falcons, Colts, Chargers and the like.

Speaking of things being different, the Dolphins committed four turnovers last week. In 2008, they maintained a plus-17 turnover differential. The Colts have an opportunistic defense, a sound pass rush and an underrated secondary. I think they’ll be away to force a few take-aways in this contest.

RECAP: Shark Tank Stadium (or whatever they call that place now) will be jumping because the Dolphins haven’t hosted a Monday night game in a while. I don’t think this is a huge advantage for them like it was for the Bills in 2007 or Texans in 2008 because they were on national TV in the playoffs this past January. But still, it’s something.

If Peyton Manning and the Colts weren’t so great, I’d probably have the Dolphins winning this game. But Manning is so good at going into hostile environments and coming out as a winner. I’m expecting that to happen once again Monday night.

The Psychology. Edge: Dolphins.
The Dolphins haven’t had a Monday night game at home in a while, so the crowd will be pumped up. However, the Colts won’t be fazed by this sort of situation.

The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.

The Colts are a public team, so it’s no surprise that they’re getting all of the money.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 84% (168,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts.

Colts were 32-23 ATS on the road under Tony Dungy.

Peyton Manning is 24-18 ATS as a road favorite since 2001.

Dolphins are 30-20 SU in September since 1994.

Chad Pennington is 18-11 ATS off a loss.

Chad Pennington is 5-10 ATS as a home dog.

Opening Line: Colts -3.5.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Possible thunderstorms, 80 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 2 NFL Pick: Colts 27, Dolphins 17
Colts -3 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Over 41 (.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Colts 27, Dolphins 23

Week 2 NFL Picks – Early Games
Panthers at Falcons, Vikings at Lions, Bengals at Packers, Texans at Titans, Raiders at Chiefs, Patriots at Jets, Saints at Eagles, Rams at Redskins, Cardinals at Jaguars

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week.

Live Dog: Raiders +130 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$130

Live Dog: Texans +250 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$250

Live Dog: Bengals +360 (.5 Units) — Correct; +$180

Live Dog: Buccaneers +160 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Live Dog: Ravens +135 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$135

Game Edge Parlay: Texans +7, 49ers -1, Buccaneers +5, Ravens +3, Giants +3 (.5 Units to win 12.2) — Incorrect; -$50

2009 NFL Season Betting Props

NFL Picks - Dec. 13

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 14, 2024): 3-10 (-$2,620)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 1-3 (-$665)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 0-3 (-$1,490)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 14, 2024): 5-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 14, 2024): -$265

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 109-102-8, 51.7% (-$4,140)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 25-35-1, 40.0% (-$2,425)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 24-21, 53.3% (+$505)
2024 Season Over-Under: 101-103-4, 49.5% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$420

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)