NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 14, 2010

NFL Picks (Preseason 2010): 9-6-1 (+$680)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2010): 8-7-1 (-$15)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2010): 7-8-1 (-$170)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2010): 10-6 (+$1,430)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2010): 7-7 (+$1,075)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2010): 8-6 (+$260)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2010): 4-9-1 (-$1,865)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2010): 8-6 (+$1,080)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2010): 7-6 (+$520)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2010): 6-5-2 (+$1,050)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2010): 6-7-1 (+$780)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2010): 8-8 (-$480)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2010): 9-7 (+$1,840)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2010): 9-7 (+$1,045)

NFL Picks (2010): 106-95-6 (+$7,230)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Dec. 13, 4:15 p.m. ET.

Go to Week 14 NFL Picks – Late Games

Indianapolis Colts (6-6) at Tennessee Titans (5-7)
Line: Colts by 3. Total: 44.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 13): Colts -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 13): Colts -3.
Thursday, Dec. 9, 8:20 ET
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The Game. Edge: Colts.

It’s really inexcusable that the NFL still employs Bob Papa, Joe Theismann and Matt Millen. These three have been awful in the Thursday night games, and they keep getting worse. Last week, they referred to Duane Brown as “Jammal Brown” three separate times. Also, Mike Patterson was “Mike Peterson” and Arian Foster became “Adrian Foster.” Meanwhile, Theismann spent five minutes explaining what a 7-on-7 drill is in between making fat jokes about Millen.

So with that in mind, here’s a preview of what this Indianapolis-Tennessee game will sound like:

Bob Papa: Eli Manning back to pass, looks, fires, complete to Reggie Walters down to the Houston 6-yard line. First down!

Joe Theismann: That is a first down, Bob. And here’s what a first down means. There are four downs in football. If you get past the required yard marker, they give you a fresh set of downs to work with. Since the first down is first down, that’s why they call it a first down.

Matt Millen: You see that play? I want you to watch this. Jammal Manning had time in the pocket. Look at that time. He had 1… 2… 3 seconds. That’s because the defenders… the defenders couldn’t get past the offensive line to sack Adrian Manning.

Joe Theismann: I talked to Tony Dungy, former head coach of the Indianapolis Colts, and he said that Peyton Manning is a great NFL quarterback because he throws the ball well. That’s what makes Peyton Manning a great NFL quarterback.

Bob Papa: Eli Manning in the shotgun. Hands it off to Donald Duck on a draw. Touchdown, Pacers!

Joe Theismann: I want you to watch this, Bob! See the runner? He scored a touchdown because he carried the ball across the goal line. What a great play – perfect in every way!

Bob Papa: Wait, there’s holding on the play.

Matt Millen: You see that play? I want you to watch this. There was a penalty on the play because… because the offensive lineman held the defensive player. And what I mean by that is… the offensive player grabbed the defensive player’s jersey and held on to it. That’s what I mean by holding.

Joe Theismann: Hey Matt, I bet lots of offensive linemen held you back in the day. Because you’re fat, that’s why.

For the love of God, NFL, please don’t let us listen to these guys again.

Anyway, it’s the usual – my NFL Picks will be posted periodically throughout Tuesday afternoon and evening. You can follow me on Twitter @walterfootball to receive updates for when I post each selection.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: You really have to hand it to ESPN for playing up this “What’s wrong with Peyton Manning?” story. I think I’ve seen Trent Dilfer break down the film on Manning 20 times in the past couple of days. You don’t need film to assess what’s wrong here; quite simply, Manning’s supporting cast sucks.

I keep saying Austin Collie will be back, but the Colts have continuously ruled him out at the last second. Well, he was listed as limited in make-believe practice Monday, so that’s a good sign at least. Manning has struggled since losing Collie in the Eagles game, as he’s had to rely on Reggie Wayne, who leads the NFL in drops, the overrated Pierre Garcon and the unreliable Jacob Tamme. The offensive line sucking isn’t helping either.

The good news for Manning is that the Titans are playing horrible football right now. They’ve surrendered 420 rushing yards in the past two games, as the Texans and Jaguars just manhandled them at the line of scrimmage. Unfortunately for the Colts, they don’t have the same type of forceful running game or offensive front to take advantage of this.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: I think Kerry Collins took my Drunken Quarterback Symposium a bit too seriously against the Jaguars. Collins was awful in every way. Yes, he had a big touchdown dropped, but he also missed a completely wide-open Randy Moss for a long score in the second quarter.

The Titans haven’t been able to run the ball lately. The Colts suck at defending the rush, but that doesn’t mean that Chris Johnson will have a big game; the Jaguars, who are just 22nd against the run, limited Tennessee to 53 rushing yards on Sunday.

Johnson will have slightly more success in this contest, which should make things easier for Collins. Titans fans just better hope that he sobers up by kickoff.

RECAP: I was upset to see this line move from -2.5 to -3. At -2.5, I would have taken Indianapolis for a couple of units. Now at -3, this will be a one-unit selection, as there are offsetting spot angles.

Manning will rebound. He’s still one of the two best quarterbacks in the NFL. I believe he’ll turn his season around, starting Thursday night.

LOCKED IN: This spread my go up to -3.5 or -4 on Thursday. Make sure you get it at -3.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.

People are not giving up on Peyton Manning.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 85% (124,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts.

History: Colts have won 11 of the last 14 meetings (Titans 5-3 ATS since 2006).

Colts are 42-26 ATS on the road since 2002.

Colts are 11-3 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 since 2007.

Peyton Manning is 31-20 ATS as a road favorite since 2001.

Titans are 22-14 ATS as underdogs in the post-Steve McNair era.

Opening Line: Colts -2.5.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: .

Week 14 NFL Pick: Colts 28, Titans 24
Colts -3 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Over 44 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Colts 30, Titans 28

Colts-Titans Game Recap

Cleveland Browns (5-7) at Buffalo Bills (2-10)
Line: Bills by 1. Total: 39.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 13): Bills -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 13): Bills -2.5.
Sunday, Dec. 12, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: Browns.

Week 13 Recap: I went 9-7 for the second week in a row, this time winning $1,045, which has put me over the $7,000 mark for the year. There are only three more real weeks of the regular season, so I hope I finish well. Good luck to everyone.

By the way, I did not receive any pick-related hate mail for the first time in almost two months! Yay! I did, however, get some feedback from angry Bears/Chiefs/Falcons fans who are upset that I have their team ranked too low in my NFL Power Rankings. Oh, well. I guess you can’t please everyone.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: At least the “Ryan Fitzpatrick is the best QB evar!!!” e-mails have stopped. I hope the pro-Fitzpatrick Bills fans are starting to realize what they’ve gotten themselves into by winning too many games and consequently losing out on Andrew Luck. Fitzpatrick is a great backup in this league, but he doesn’t have the arm to lead any team deep into the playoffs.

Fitzpatrick has a tough test in this contest. The Browns are just 19th against the pass in terms of YPA, but if you exclude everything before their Week 8 bye, they would be fourth in the NFL right now in that department. Credit rookie corner Joe Haden, who is playing out of his mind.

Fortunately for Fitzpatrick, he’ll have some help from Fred Jackson this time around. The Browns have surrendered at least 97 rushing yards to their previous four opponents.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: It was weird to see Jake Delhomme play an error-free game last week. Sure, he nearly tossed a game-clinching pick-six at the very end, but Delhomme was very solid throughout even though the Dolphins stacked the line of scrimmage and dared him to throw. As I wrote in my game recaps, “Chad Henne may have volunteered to save Delhomme’s kidnapped son today.”

Miami is fifth against the rush, so it was able to contain Peyton Hillis. The Bills are 27th. They’ve surrendered 376 rushing yards the past two weeks. Hillis has been pretty unstoppable this season, so he’ll pick up where Adrian Peterson left off.

Of course, this doesn’t mean that Delhomme will refrain from committing turnovers again. Hillis ran the ball extremely well against Carolina two weeks ago, yet Delhomme had two interceptions, including a pick-six.

RECAP: The Bills are a false favorite; teams laying points after suffering two or more consecutive losses generally fare poorly against the spread.

So, am I taking the Browns for a couple of units? Hell no. First of all, the spread is only -1, so it’s not like Buffalo is a real favorite here. And second, I can’t recommend betting a significant amount of money on Delhomme. He has a kidnapped son to save.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

Why are all these people betting on Jake Delhomme?

Percentage of money on Cleveland: 81% (91,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.

Bills are 16-10 ATS at home after Oct. 1 when favored by fewer than 6 points since 2002.

Bills are 17-10 ATS against losing teams since 2006.

Opening Line: Bills -1.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Rain, 37 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.

Week 14 NFL Pick: Browns 16, Bills 13
Browns +1 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 39 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Bills 13, Browns 6

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-5) at Washington Redskins (5-7)
Line: Buccaneers by 1. Total: 41.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 13): Redskins -1.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 13): Buccaneers -1.
Sunday, Dec. 12, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: Buccaneers.

Vegas Recap: For the second time in three weeks, Vegas lost a ton of money. Of the seven highly bet teams last weekend, five covered (Packers, Seahawks, Rams, Falcons, Patriots). The books won with Cincinnati and Detroit.

Does this mean some games will be fixed this week so Vegas can recoup its losses? I don’t think so. The books have made so much money this year. There are still plenty of bettors out there who will have to buy their kids toilet paper, plastic cups and Skittles for Christmas. Not that I’d complain about that; I love Skittles NOM NOM NOM NOM.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: I’m starting with the Buccaneers’ offense because I want to talk about the Redskins’ futility. I can’t believe how pathetic they were on Sunday. They showed no interest in tackling, as the Giants pushed them around and did as they pleased. It’s almost as if New York was Ben Roethlisberger, and Washington’s defense was that poor, gold-digging tramp in that Georgia bar.

The Redskins are now dead last against the run in terms of YPC, moving below the Colts on the chart. They’re the only team surrendering more than five yards per carry, as they’ve allowed 610 rushing yards in the past four weeks. As you may guess, I like LeGarrette Blount to have a big game.

With Blount doing the dirty work, Josh Freeman will have plenty of play-action and short-yardage opportunities. Tampa’s offense should pick up where the Giants left off.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: I can understand the Redskins defense sucking, but what happened to Donovan McNabb? Remember when he was a prized trade acquisition this spring? McNabb has been awful this year.

McNabb will have the luxury of battling a banged-up Tampa secondary that just lost stud shutdown corner Aqib Talib for the rest of the season. However, McNabb has failed against poor secondaries this season, so I don’t see why this would be any different.

To be fair to McNabb, he doesn’t have the supporting cast. Santana Moss is a declining player, while Anthony Armstrong is not a legitimate No. 2 receiver. The running game is also in shambles. Tampa is 30th against the rush, but has limited its previous three opponents to just 3.5 YPC.

RECAP: This Redskins team is a mess and there may be some sort of quit factor in the wake of the Albert Haynesworth suspension. However, the Buccaneers know that their season is over after that loss to Atlanta. Like the Redskins, they’ll be flat this Sunday.

I really have no feel for this matchup. With a gun to my head, I’d side with Vegas and take the home dog, but you’d have to pay me to bet on this game.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
Both teams are coming off emotional losses as big underdogs.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.

No surprise where the money is going.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 73% (76,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Redskins.

Buccaneers are 3-7 ATS as road favorites since 2004.

Donovan McNabb is 27-15 ATS after a loss since 2001.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -2.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: Rain, 47 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

Week 14 NFL Pick: Redskins 17, Buccaneers 16
Redskins +1 (0 Units) — Push; $0
Under 41 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Buccaneers 17, Redskins 16

Atlanta Falcons (10-2) at Carolina Panthers (1-11)
Line: Falcons by 7.5. Total: 41.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 13): Falcons -7.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 13): Falcons -9.
Sunday, Dec. 12, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: Falcons.

As I wrote earlier, I received no pick-related hate mail this week. Instead, I want to show you something Frank M. sent me a couple of months ago (I’ve been saving this for a hate mail-free week.)

Frank M. took this comment off some investing message board a couple of months ago. Apparently, some guy lost a ton of money on the stock market. Take a look:

I shorted 2000 shares at $165 a few days ago and am in big trouble now. This stock has taken off like a rocket since my transaction took place. I wasnt expecting this to happen – I thought it was easy money listening to the people on this board.

Now I’m down almost $26,000.00 !!!

If someone could help me recoup some of this loss, I would be willing to allow them to spend some “quality” time with my wife on a semi-regular basis, assuming you are respectful and semi-decent looking. My wife is blonde, about 5’4″ and maybe 120lbs, with a 36C chest. Attractive, although somewhat conservative in regard to her bedroom activities, she can be convinced to participate given the amount involved and an expectation of assistance in recovering said funds. You help us with your knowledge and reap the rewards with her.

We are in the midatlantic area. Please, serious replies only from those who are knowledgeable in the stock market and trading.

I hope this guy has been reading my Web site since he posted this. If so, I can’t wait for sexy time with his wife!

ATLANTA OFFENSE: It might be a coincidence that the Panthers are following the Redskins on this picks page this week because neither team showed any sort if interest in tackling last week. Just as the Giants did to Washington, the Seahawks ran all over Carolina (30 carries, 162 yards). Some Panther defenders actually looked like they were going out of their way to avoid Marshawn Lynch and Justin Forsett in the fourth quarter. It was really pathetic (and frustrating because I had them for three units.)

Carolina has surrendered at least 145 rushing yards in four of its previous five games. Unless the team picks up its effort, Michael Turner will have a huge game, permitting Matt Ryan to do whatever he pleases.

Not that Ryan needs play-action here or anything; the Panthers have allowed an average of 253 passing yards per game in the past five weeks.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: If you watched SportsCenter on Sunday night or Monday morning, chances are you saw Jimmy Clausen’s disgraceful pick-six in the third quarter of the Carolina-Seattle game. What you didn’t see was the offensive line committing numerous penalties and failing to block for the rookie quarterback throughout the contest. Clausen has played poorly this year, but it’s not like he has any sort of chance behind an awful front.

There’s good news and bad news for Clausen. The good news is that the Falcons have accumulated just two sacks in the past three weeks. Atlanta also has a pourous secondary ranked 27th in terms of YPA.

The bad news is that Clausen won’t have much of a running game. Jonathan Stewart has been playing well, but the Falcons are 11th versus the rush. I don’t know what happened in that Tampa win, but if you exclude Sunday’s contest, Atlanta hasn’t given up more than 84 rushing yards to any opponent since Week 6.

RECAP: Atlanta over Carolina might be the most heavily bet side of the year. Barely anyone is taking the Panthers; people are lining up to lay their hard-earned money on the Falcons. It’s almost like this is Black Friday again.

But I don’t shop on Black Friday. I’m taking the Panthers for one unit, and I have two reasons for doing so.

First, John Fox generally does well as a divisional underdog of a touchdown or more. And second, the Falcons have just three wins of more than seven points this year, and one of them (20-10 over the Browns) was decided on a late Jake Delhomme pick-six. Atlanta just doesn’t blow teams out.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.

Everyone’s lining up to bet the Falcons.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 84% (137,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Panthers.

History: Home Team has won the last 4 meetings.

John Fox is 5-2 ATS as a divisional underdog of 7+.

Panthers are 24-36 ATS at home since 2003.

Opening Line: Falcons -7.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Cloudy, 43 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

Week 14 NFL Pick: Falcons 26, Panthers 20
Panthers +7.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Over 41 (0 Units) — Push; $0
Falcons 31, Panthers 10

Oakland Raiders (6-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (7-5)
Line: Jaguars by 4. Total: 42.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 13): Jaguars -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 13): Jaguars -3.
Sunday, Dec. 12, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: Raiders.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. If you haven’t checked out Audibles yet on ESPN, I highly recommend it – simply for the comedic factor. Steve Young, Herm Edwards and Keyshawn Johnson in one room? The over-under on stupid things said in an hour has to be in the thousands, right?

Keyshawn was the worst this past week. He tried reading off the teleprompter, but failed miserably. He then called Andre Johnson “Adrian Johnson.” Later that night, Bob Papa, Joe Theismann and Matt Millen referred to Arian Foster as “Adrian Foster.”

This got me thinking – if you’re a black athlete with a first name beginning with the letter A, you should probably just change your name to Adrian. If you don’t, some dope on ESPN is just going to screw it up.

2. There was an article published recently suggesting that Peyton Hillis was traded to Cleveland for Brady Quinn because Hillis hit on Josh McDaniels’ wife.

If this is all it takes to get out of Denver, I don’t know why more players didn’t try this before McDaniels was fired. Every Broncos player should have hit on McDaniels’ wife. Even you, Tim Tebow. I know you’re a goodie-two-shoes, but you should have sucked it up and just told McDaniels’ old lady that she has a nice butt.

3. I’ve been posting Bo-Bo’s fantasy results all year. Facebook friend Nate L. sent me the following message and horrifying picture:

You wanna see embarrassing? Seriously, this is necessary to post on your site. I was in the opposite position of Bo-Bo; I had an undefeated season going. Now, feast your eyes on this…

Ouch. This is like losing a real football game to a team that shows up drunk and/or high. In other words, Nate L. just lost to the Derek Anderson of fantasy football.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Where did the Jaguars get this toughness from? Where’s the team that took after their sun-bathing coach and put forth no effort against non-divisional opponents last year?

Jacksonville muscled the Titans and Giants around the past two weeks. The Raiders did just shut down Mike Tolbert, but are only two weeks removed from surrendering 182 rushing yards to the Dolphins.

I think the Jaguars will keep running the ball well. They’ll need to in order to keep Oakland honest, because believe or not, the Raiders are tied for the NFL lead with 36 sacks.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: These teams are basically mirror images of each other. The Raiders trampled the Chargers last week with their dynamic ground attack. Jacksonville, meanwhile, shut down an impressive runner on Sunday (Chris Johnson) but struggled to contain the rush the week before against the Giants.

Like the Jaguars, Oakland will have success moving the chains with their backs. The difference though is that Jacksonville doesn’t put nearly as much pressure on the quarterback. The team has 21 sacks on the year, and only 10 since Week 6.

RECAP: I’m taking the Raiders for a couple of units. The Jaguars aren’t really built to blow teams out, and Oakland is playing as an underdog in its second consecutive road tilt, which is generally a lucrative betting proposition.

SURVIVOR PICK: I lost with the Giants in Survivor four weeks ago, but I’ll continue to give advice for those who are still alive.

This is truly a horrible week for survivor. I’ve used the Steelers, Saints and Chargers already, so that leaves me with the Jaguars as my top option.

Here are my top six in order: San Diego, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Jacksonville, Atlanta and Green Bay. As always, never pick a road team. Never pick a bad team. Never pick an underdog. Never save any teams. Always choose the best option.

LOCKED IN: Don’t let this line get below +4 if you want to bet Oakland.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

Late money on the Jaguars.

Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 66% (116,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Jaguars are 8-1 ATS coming off a 2-game road trip the previous 9 instances.

Jaguars are 9-3 ATS before playing the arch rival Colts since 2004.

Jaguars are 9-19 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Jaguars are 3-10 ATS as home favorites since 2008.

Opening Line: Jaguars -5.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Cloudy, 60 degrees. Mild wind, 19 mph.

Week 14 NFL Pick: Jaguars 20, Raiders 17
Raiders +4 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Under 42.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Survivor Pick (12-1)
Jaguars 38, Raiders 31 MISSING

Green Bay Packers (8-4) at Detroit Lions (2-10)
Line: Packers by 6.5. Total: 46.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 13): Packers -7.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 13): Packers -7.
Sunday, Dec. 12, 1:00 ET
Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Packers.

Some random college football notes:

1. CBS’ Gary Danielson makes me sick. He’s so paid off by the NCAA and BCS (putting him into the same corrupt cartel as sell-outs Tim Cowlishaw and Bill Plaschke) that he’ll say anything to defend this bogus system.

Danielson’s argument about why TCU shouldn’t deserve consideration over the one-loss teams in the event that Auburn or Oregon would lose? “There is no way TCU could make it through an SEC, Big Ten or Pac 10 schedule.”

If you say so, grand master of football prognostication. Why even play any games on the football field, Gary? Why not just simulate them at the beginning of the year? That way, Alabama will beat Ohio State in the national championship.

It’s even worse when people say completely ignorant things like “There’s no way TCU could beat Auburn or Oregon.” Really? No way? Auburn and Oregon nearly lost to Mississippi State and Cal, respectively, both of whom are ranked below TCU. Cal’s 5-7 for crying out loud. So, Cal nearly defeats Oregon, but TCU has no shot? You’ve gotta be kidding me.

College football is a joke, and is more fixed than wrestling. I’m hating ~~WWE~~ NCAA Football more and more each week.

2. During the fixed Oregon-Oregon State and Auburn-South Carolina games, I made some awesome tweets (@walterfootball):

B.S. penalty allows Oregon to score game-clinching touchdown. I wonder if that official got paid off by the NCAA via cash or check

Man, I wish Penn State would have outbid Auburn (1-year deal, $200,000) for Cam Newton. He’s awesome.

Credit the NCAA for paying off South Carolina’s kicker too. They’ve got all their bases covered. Great job.

Auburn-Oregon moneyline parlay was a safer bet than U.S. -180 over England in the Revolutionary War. Thanks, corrupt NCAA!

3. If you missed the end of the Auburn-South Carolina game, you didn’t get to see one of the most unintentionally hilarious events of the year. Forum member JLash explained it best:

I hope someone else saw this.

Cam Newton is on the sidelines joking with the CBS sideline reporter. Decent-looking girl. He hands her a Gatorade bottle with something written on it.

A minute later they ask her what that was about – “He gave me a mixture, he wouldn’t tell me what it was. He calls it ‘Cammy Cam Juice’. Let me just try some.”

So he holds the bottle in front of her face and squirts a couple shots of it into her mouth. ” Not bad, but a little sweet for my taste.”

Hahaha. I turned around, and my fiancee was standing in the back of the room appalled thinking I was watching a CBS porno spoof or something. The reporter clearly didn’t understand the sexual nature of the whole thing, as Cam Newton stood a few feet away cracking up laughing as she squirted it into her mouth. I thought it was hilarious.

See, I have to disagree with JLash here. I think the reporter (Tracy Wolfson) definitely understood what was going on. She’s just a horny broad who wanted some Cammy Cam Juice in her mouth and on her face. And can you blame her? Newton is making six figures this year, after all.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: The Packers may have found the missing piece to the puzzle in their win over the 49ers. Seeing action for the first time all year because of injury, rookie running back James Starks was very impressive against San Francisco’s third-ranked rush defense.

Starks ran for 73 yards on 18 carries on Sunday. He’ll be far more effective this week because the Lions are 26th versus ground attacks. Four of Detroit’s previous five opponents have compiled at least 91 rushing yards against them.

As if Aaron Rodgers needed more help, right? Rodgers is on fire; he hasn’t thrown an interception in his past 177 attempts. Donald Driver is also looking as healthy as he’s been all year.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions put up 20 points on the Bears last week. However, all but 51 of their total yards came in the first half, as Chicago struggled to tackle before intermission.

If the Packers show up completely focused – I’ll get to that later – Detroit won’t be able to score. Running the ball won’t be an option because Green Bay is eighth against the rush (although Cullen Jenkins won’t play).

Meanwhile, Drew Stanton will do the usual – drop back 15 yards in the pocket and pray that Calvin Johnson can catch his desperate heave.

RECAP: Will Green Bay be completely sharp? I don’t think so. The Packers are in a major Breather Alert. Following what should be an easy victory over Detroit, they have the Patriots, Giants and Bears to deal with.

The Lions are a feisty team that plays their opponents close. They took Green Bay down to the wire at Lambeau earlier in the year, losing 28-26.

The Psychology. Edge: Lions.

Major Breather Alert for the Packers; this is their last “easy game;” after this, they have the Patriots, Giants and Bears.

The Vegas. Edge: Lions.

Where do you think the money is going?

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 85% (128,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

History: Packers have won the last 10 meetings.

Packers are 25-13 ATS on the road under Mike McCarthy.

Jim Schwartz is 1-5 ATS as a divisional underdog of 7+.

Opening Line: Packers -7.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Dome.

Week 14 NFL Pick: Packers 31, Lions 27
Lions +6.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Over 46.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Lions 7, Packers 3

New York Giants (8-4) vs. Minnesota Vikings (5-7)
Line: Giants by 5. Total: 43.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 13): Giants -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 13): Pick.

Time Change: Monday, Dec. 13, 7:20 ET
At Detroit
Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Vikings.

My e-mail address is published on this site, so I tend to get more spam and junk mail than the average person. Each week, I’m going to find a hilarious e-mail and post it for your entertainment.

I’m rich again. I received an e-mail from the United Bank of Afriocan informing me that I received an inheritance. Muhahahaha!

FROM UNITED BANK OF AFRIOCAN

This is to officially inform you that your contract/inheritance sum, which was pending due to discrepancies, was verified as and confirmed for onward payment as instructed by this present administration.

The sum approved for payment should be received through ATM processes. The ATM card information will be sent to you as soon as you reconfirm the following;

Your full names:
Your contact address:
Your direct telephone number:

Also a scanned copy of your ATM Card will be emailed to you in the next mail for you to confirm its authencity.

Regards,
Arthur UKA

As you can imagine, I e-mailed back the United Bank of Afriocan immediately:

Arthur UKA,

Hello, my name is Mister Compassion Chuck Norris. I am very pleased to hear that my inheritance was approved. I didn’t even know I applied for this, but I can’t say I am surprised. I’ve had bouts with short-term memory loss, so I have no idea what I did 20 minutes ago.

A little bit about my upbringing. I was abandoned by my birth mother in the woods of northern Alaska. A mother wolf found me and raised me until I was 18 years of age. Because I lived with wolves for 18 years, I’ve learned to speak their language. For example: “Ruuufff ruf ruuuffff rooooff ruuuff awwooooo” means “I can’t wait to receive my inheritance from the United Bank of Afriocan!”

Here is the information you have been looking for:

Your full names: Mister Compassion Chuck Norris
Your contact address: 123 Wolf Cave Road; Wolf Village, Alaska
Your direct telephone number: 867-5309

I cannot wait for my scanned copy of my ATM Card!!!

Mister Compassion Chuck Norris

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Giants did whatever they pleased against the Redskins last week. Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs picked up chunks of yardage on the ground, negating the fact that Eli Manning didn’t have his top receivers at his disposal.

The Vikings won’t be nearly as lethargic as Washington was last week. They’re playing hard under interim head coach Leslie Frazier. Minnesota ranks fourth in the NFL against the rush, so neither Bradshaw nor Jacobs will have much success on the ground.

Manning will have to throw the ball for a change, which is not a good thing considering the status of Hakeem Nicks and Steve Smith. Nicks has an outside chance to play in this game, but he’ll probably be back in Week 15. Smith, meanwhile, told the media that he doesn’t anticipate being an every-down player if he returns to the lineup this Sunday.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: There is no line on this game as of Tuesday evening because of Brett Favre’s status. Favre suffered a shoulder injury on Sunday, but Frazier said that he’d be surprised if Favre didn’t suit up against the Giants.

Regardless of whether Favre plays or not, the Vikings will heavily lean on Adrian Peterson, who trampled the Bills on Sunday for 107 yards and three touchdowns on just 16 carries. He looked as quick and as powerful as ever, although playing a pathetic Buffalo defense certainly helped.

Peterson should have another solid performance. The Giants are just 17th against the run in terms of YPC. Excluding the Redskins contest, New York has surrendered an average of 125 rushing yards to its previous three opponents.

RECAP: This is a really dangerous game for the Giants. They’re in a bad spot; they have the Eagles and Packers after this contest against 5-7 Minnesota, which constitutes as a Breather Alert.

And besides, the Vikings are playing really well right now. Like the Cowboys, they’ve rallied around their new coach. They’re still really good at home, so I like them to cover the spread – whatever it might be – for about three units.

LINE POSTED: The Giants opened at -1.5 and are now -2.5. I still like Minnesota for three units.

METRODOME: The roof has caved in and the Vikings-Giants will play elsewhere Monday night. I can no longer recommend this as any sort of play. Will Minnesota be focused? How will all the travel affect New York? There are too many unknowns.

PICK CHANGE: This game will be played at Detroit, making this a neutral-site contest. With that said, I don’t understand why the Giants are only -4; since they were -3 at Minnesota, this line should be -6.

At any rate, I wouldn’t bet this game, but I’d take the Giants if I had to. I can’t imagine the Vikings will be entirely focused having to travel at the last second.

The Psychology. Edge: Vikings.

This is a Breather Alert for the Giants; they have the Eagles and Packers after this game.

The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.

The public is all over the Giants.

Percentage of money on New York: 82% (72,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Giants.

Giants are 27-13 ATS on the road since 2006.

Opening Line: Giants -1.5.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Dome.

Week 14 NFL Pick: Giants 23, Vikings 17
Giants -5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 43.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Giants 21, Vikings 3

Cincinnati Bengals (2-10) at Pittsburgh Steelers (9-3)
Line: Steelers by 8.5. Total: 39.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 13): Steelers -13.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 13): Steelers -13.

Sunday, Dec. 12, 1:00 ET
Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Steelers.

The Video of the Week: I can’t wait for the official Coors Light commercials featuring Derek Anderson’s drunken post-game tirade. In the mean time, here’s an amateur Derek Anderson Coors Light commercial.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: How many more offensive linemen can the Steelers lose? With both starting tackles out already, reserve Flozell Adams suffered a high ankle sprain on Sunday night. The Steelers are just running out of bodies up front.

Even though the Bengals are dead last in the NFL with 13 sacks, Ben Roethlisberger won’t be protected well. Rookie defensive end Carlos Dunlap has been playing very well recently with 4.5 sacks in his previous four games. He should dominate the matchup against third-string tackle Trai Essex.

With that in mind, the Steelers will have to keep Big Ben out of long-yardage situations. Fortunately for them, the Bengals are 29th against the run in terms of YPC. They just surrendered 146 rushing yards on 22 carries to Chris Ivory and the Saints.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Pittsburgh really has to address the cornerback position this offseason. Bryant McFadden could possibly be the worst starting corner in the NFL. I don’t understand how the Steelers don’t have anyone better that they can use over McFadden, who embarrasses himself multiple times every week.

Carson Palmer is a shell of his former self, but performed decently enough last week to keep his team in the game. He also played relatively well on a Monday night against the Steelers earlier in the year. He could have some success this Sunday as well, especially considering that Pittsburgh has a tendency to let teams hang around in the fourth quarter.

RECAP: We’re getting absolutely no line value here. The Saints were -6.5 at the Bengals, which means they would have been -12.5 at home. I was hoping for a line of about 12-13; instead Pittsburgh is laying only 9.5.

I still like the Bengals though, as this is their Super Bowl. Teams that have lost at least three consecutive games tend to do well on the road. And even if Cincinnati is down – and it should be – Palmer has shown that he has what it takes to throw a garbage-time, backdoor touchdown.

If this line moves up to -10, I may increase this selection to three units.

And by the way, I realize that I haven’t posted a big play yet. Don’t worry. They’re coming.

The Psychology. Edge: Bengals.

This is the Bengals’ Super Bowl.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 50% (112,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bengals.

History: Road Team has won 9 of the last 12 meetings.

History: Steelers have won 6 of the last 8 meetings.

Bengals are 16-5 ATS against the Steelers if they lost to them previously the same season in the last 21 instances.

Bengals are 10-5 ATS as underdogs since 2009.

Steelers are 20-8 ATS in December home games since 2000.

Ben Roethlisberger is 21-13 ATS vs. the AFC North.

Opening Line: Steelers -9.

Opening Total: 40.5.

Weather: Rain/snow, 37 degrees. Light wind.

Week 14 NFL Pick: Steelers 23, Bengals 20
Bengals +8.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Over 39 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Steelers 23, Bengals 7

Week 14 NFL Picks – Late Games
Rams at Saints, Seahawks, 49ers, Dolphins at Jets, Broncos at Cardinals, Chiefs at Chargers, Patriots at Bears, Eagles at Cowboys, Ravens at Texans

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 14 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Dec. 11

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 14, 2024): 3-10 (-$2,620)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 1-3 (-$665)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 0-3 (-$1,490)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 14, 2024): 5-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 14, 2024): -$265

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 109-102-8, 51.7% (-$4,140)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 25-35-1, 40.0% (-$2,425)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 24-21, 53.3% (+$505)
2024 Season Over-Under: 101-103-4, 49.5% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$420

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)