NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 14, 2011

NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2011): 5-9-2 (-$575)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2011): 6-8-2 (-$1,030)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2011): 10-5-1 (+$610)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2011): 7-9 (-$970)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2011): 9-4 (-$270)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2011): 5-7-1 (-$1,290)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2011): 4-8-1 (-$820)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2011): 3-10 (-$1,145)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2011): 7-7 (+$695)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2011): 9-7 (+$490)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2011): 6-7-1 (-$1,060)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2011): 7-9 (-$435)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2011): 11-5 (+$1,000)

NFL Picks (2011): 100-99-8 (-$3,460)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Dec. 12, 6:00 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 14 NFL Picks – Early Games

San Francisco 49ers (10-2) at Arizona Cardinals (5-7)
Line: 49ers by 3.5. Total: 39.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 13): 49ers -6.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 13): 49ers -5.5.
Sunday, Dec. 11, 4:05 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: 49ers.

If you didn’t see it, Emmitt on the Brink is back! Season 4, Episode 13 has been posted – Roger Goodell has outsourced NFL disciplinary issues to a group called the Skittle Warriors. First up? Steve Johnson’s latest touchdown dance.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: The 49ers had a great defensive game plan against the Cardinals in their previous matchup. They knew John Skelton doesn’t make any reads, so they were able to intercept him a few times.

Kevin Kolb is more accurate and won’t telegraph his passes. He still has his work cut out for him though, as San Francisco’s solid pass rush (29 sacks) will put immense pressure on him. Aside from the Rams, the Cardinals have surrendered the most sacks in the NFL (41 sacks).

Chris Wells wasn’t really healthy when the teams matched up in Week 11. He figures to be shut down again on paper, as the 49ers rank first against the run. It’s worth noting though that Patrick Willis will likely be out with a hamstring injury, so maybe Wells will have some success, which will make things a lot more easier for Kolb.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The Cardinals have a pretty underrated defense. They’re 13th against the run (4.2 YPC), as they just shut down DeMarco Murray. They’ll be better versus the pass going forward; first-round rookie corner Patrick Peterson has improved his play of late. Arizona also gets to the quarterback regularly; it has 29 sacks on the year, including 16 since Week 8.

The 49ers didn’t have much success offensively when the two teams clashed in San Francisco. Frank Gore was limited to just 88 yards on 24 carries (3.7 YPC), which bogged down the offense. I see no reason why Arizona can’t put the clamps on Gore again.

Alex Smith had to do most of the work in the prior matchup. He threw for 267 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, but completed just 52.6 percent of his passes (20-of-38), which was a season-worst. Don’t be surprised if Smith has a similar performance.

RECAP: This spread is really low, so everyone is taking the 49ers. I think the Cardinals are the right side. They’re incredibly underrated, having won four of their previous five games. The 49ers, meanwhile, don’t really need a victory, and will be missing arguably the NFL’s top defensive player.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge.

The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.

All the 49ers have to do is beat the Cardinals by four? Where can I sign up?

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 87% (46,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: 49ers have won 7 of the last 9 meetings.

49ers are 12-5 ATS against divisional opponents in the past 17 instances.

Cardinals are 20-7 ATS in December home games since 2000.

Cardinals are 13-6 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 under Ken Whisenhunt.

Opening Line: 49ers -3.5.

Opening Total: 40.

Weather: Dome.

Week 14 NFL Pick: 49ers 17, Cardinals 16
Cardinals +3.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 39.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Cardinals 21, 49ers 19
MISSING

Chicago Bears (7-5) at Denver Broncos (7-5)
Line: Broncos by 3. Total: 35.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 13): Broncos -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 13): Broncos -4.5.
Sunday, Dec. 11, 4:05 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Broncos.

A friendly reminder that Jerks of the Week for Dec. 5, 2011 are up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks are: 1) Moses Man. 2) Senile Man. 3) Saladworks.

DENVER OFFENSE: No one should be surprised that Tim Tebow had a really good passing performance at Minnesota. As many ESPN analysts seem to conveniently forget, Tebow threw for 320 yards in a game last year. Minnesota’s secondary is in shambles, so Tebow had a really good matchup.

This one is going to be tougher. While the Vikings are 29th against the pass, the Bears are 10th (6.8 YPA). Lovie Smith will give Tebow looks he’s never seen before, so it’ll be up to the young quarterback to pick up what’s going on in an effort to prevent turnovers.

Of course, if Tebow doesn’t have to throw all that much, nothing I just wrote will really matter. The Bears are really good at stopping the run (3.5 YPC since their Week 8 bye), but that doesn’t mean that Tebow and Willis McGahee won’t be able to trample them. The Vikings are seventh versus the rush (3.8 YPC), and McGahee broke numerous big gains because they were afraid of Tebow’s ability to scramble.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Poor Bears. When they lost Jay Cutler, I thought everything would be OK because Matt Forte would be able to carry Caleb Hanie, who looked pretty decent in the NFC Championship.

Well, Hanie stinks and Forte is now injured. And Denver will be getting Von Miller back from thumb surgery. Not good.

I don’t know how the Bears are going to move the chains. Marion Barber won’t pose much of a threat to the Broncos, but they can focus on stopping him because Hanie is a disaster. He’s thrown three interceptions in each of his two starts, and there could be three more coming against Denver’s prolific back seven.

RECAP: I think the Broncos are going to win again with Tebow. I’m uncomfortable laying more than a field goal, however, since most of Tebow’s games come down to the very end.

There are a couple of situational angles going against Denver as well, including one system I brought up recently: Underdogs coming off a loss as -7 or more, playing a team coming off a straight-up win are 52-33 ATS in the past 20 years.

Having said that, I think you’d have to be crazy to gamble against Tebow right now. He has God on his side. Do you really want to bet against God?

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge.

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.

All aboard the Tim Tebow bandwagon! There’s still more room!

Percentage of money on Denver: 72% (35,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bears.

Bears are 8-4 ATS off back-to-back losses since 2005.

Lovie Smith is 5-2 ATS as an underdog after losing as a favorite.

Bears are 9-27 ATS in December road games the previous 36 instances.

Broncos are 22-13 ATS at home when the line is -3 to +3 the previous 35 instances.

Broncos are 10-31 ATS as a favorite since 2006.

Broncos are 10-19 ATS vs. the NFC since 2003.

Broncos are 2-15 ATS as favorites of 3.5 or more in 2008.

Opening Line: Broncos -3.5.

Opening Total: 36.5.

Weather: .

Week 14 NFL Pick: Broncos 19, Bears 13
Broncos -3 (0 Units) — Push; $0
Under 35.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Broncos 13, Bears 10

Oakland Raiders (7-5) at Green Bay Packers (12-0)
Line: Packers by 11.5. Total: 51.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 13): Packers -13.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 13): Packers -13.
Sunday, Dec. 11, 4:15 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Packers.

It’s time for Notes from NFL.com GameCenter – a list of a few stupid comments I found on NFL.com’s GameCenter and my thoughts on them.

Once again, these comments are all from some user named Migelini, who might just be the dumbest person alive:

1. “where 12th fan. we are beest gong to supergame this yeer. taptua stop his beest defenceman.”

You heard it here first – a 2006 version of Lofa Tatupu, when he was still good (and on the team) is going to use a time machine to travel to the present and stop his best “defenceman,” whatever the hell that means.

2. “why not is a catch. sid his the beest. talker on tv said his catch. seahwks gong grate and all ways come bak.”

You tell ’em, Migelini. If talker on TV, says it’s a catch, it’s a God damn catch.

3. “i take tarvis or even whithart. becuz thay are faster throwers than eeven bradey or sandchez.”

Tom “Bradey” apparently is worse than Charlie Whitehurst because he is a slower thrower. This is truly the essence of GameCenter.

By the way, I plugged this into spell-checker (along with everything else in this game preview), and almost every single word Migelini wrote lit up. It would actually be easier for me if Microsoft Word lit up the words that Migelini spelled correctly.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: It’s getting pretty boring talking about the Packer offense. All they do is score nonstop. I’m running out of ways to write about it.

I’m not really sure what the Raiders can do to stop Aaron Rodgers and all of his talented receivers. They had issues containing Matt Moore last week, for crying out loud, so the only way Rodgers won’t score into the high 30s, at the very least, is if he and his players are bored with winning and consequently shoot themselves in the foot with dumb mistakes.

As for the ground attack, it doesn’t appear as though James Starks will be able to play with an ankle injury. It won’t matter much because the Raiders are terrible against the run (30th; 5.02 YPC), so Ryan Grant and Brandon “Saddam Who” Saine (an Evil Berman-ism) should be able to pick up the slack.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: Carson Palmer took a major step backward last week. It was surprising because he had been playing so well going into the Miami contest. I’d like to give him a mulligan though. Maybe it was the early road start. Perhaps the fact that all of his receivers are injured really affected him. Or it could be that the Dolphins are just that good defensively.

Palmer should be able to rebound against an anemic Green Bay pass defense. It’ll help that Denarius Moore and Jacoby Ford are expected back in the lineup.

One other reason Palmer could have struggled was the lack of a strong ground attack. I mentioned this last week – ever since Michael Bush had that dominant performance against the Chargers on a Thursday night, he has really struggled. Check out his YPC averages the past three games: 3.6, 2.9, 1.8. Luckily for Bush, the Packers have surrendered three consecutive 100-yard rushing performances.

RECAP: I’ve been betting on Rodgers every week this season except for the opener. I’m not going to stop now because he didn’t cover last week. Rodgers is 31-16 against the spread since 2009. He’s an unstoppable force.

Unfortunately, his defense is not. I’m not going heavy here because I fear that Green Bay’s anemic stop unit will allow Palmer to hang around and perhaps complete a backdoor cover.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 83% (55,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

Raiders are 11-3 ATS as double-digit underdogs since 2008.

Aaron Rodgers is 31-16 ATS since 2009.

Packers are 16-11 ATS in December home games since 2000.

Opening Line: Packers -11.

Opening Total: 53.5.

Weather: .

Week 14 NFL Pick: Packers 38, Raiders 24
Packers -11.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Over 51.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Packers 46, Raiders 16

Buffalo Bills (5-7) at San Diego Chargers (5-7)
Line: Chargers by 7. Total: 48.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 13): Chargers -7.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 13): Chargers -7.
Sunday, Dec. 11, 4:15 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Chargers.

More Notes from NFL.com GameCenter: I’ve been posting some comments from perverted users directed at hot chicks on GameCenter, most of which came from a creeper named Aaron3619.

Aaron3619 was at it again this week, sending messages to chicks named Cowgirlsatx and Patriotsgirrl:

Why did Aaron3619 tell Cowgirlsatx to shut up? Here’s your answer:

I guess Aaron3619’s stalkerish tendencies are well known in the GameCenter community. Here’s what Patriotsgirrl said back to Cowgirlsatx, by the way:

Poor Aaron3619 is never going to get a chick to send him a “naked pic or bikini pic” at this point. But who is this cr94ever fellow? Can he get a naked pick of bikini pic?

Ah, a “nice guy,” a.k.a. an online creeper who tries to game girls he’ll never meet on message boards. GameCenter is full of nice guys, and Aaron3619’s the nicest of them all. He’s waiting for you, ladies. All you need to do is send him a naked pic or bikini pic.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: Philip Rivers looked great Monday night. As I wrote in my NFL Power Rankings page, part of that might have been Jacksonville’s defense, but the return of Malcom Floyd to the lineup certainly helped.

If Rivers’ best game of the year was the byproduct of the Jaguars simply having too many injuries, it certainly won’t have a bearing on this game since Buffalo is in the same predicament. The Bills’ defense is just a shell of the unit that started the year. They’ve struggled to stop the likes of Mark Sanchez, Matt Hasselbeck and Matt Moore, so you can only imagine what Rivers will be able to do.

Pro Bowl nose tackle Kyle Williams has really been missed, as Buffalo hasn’t been able to stop the run since he went out. Ryan Mathews figures to have a big outing, which will ease the pressure off Rivers behind a make-shift offensive line. Not like the Bills can get to the quarterback anyway.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: Like the Bills, the Chargers have major problems defensively, thanks to a plethora of injuries. I mean, they made Blaine Gabbert look functional for a half, for crying out loud.

Ryan Fitzpatrick has been up-and-down the past couple of weeks. He was brilliant against Darrelle Revis and the Jets, but struggled against Tennessee this past Sunday. I have to figure that he’ll be on again, given that San Diego is 26th against the pass (7.8 YPA) and can’t put pressure on the quarterback (four sacks in the previous four weeks).

The Chargers are also weak against the run; they’ve surrendered at least 110 rushing yards to three of their previous four opponents. You have to like C.J. Spiller’s chances here; Spiller was on his way to a big game against the Titans before Chan Gailey stopped running the ball in the wake of falling too far behind.

RECAP: Teams coming off Monday night blowout victories usually cover the spread, but there are plenty of other reasons to love the Bills:

1. The Chargers stink. They beat up on a Jacksonville team that just fired its head coach, and now we’re supposed to believe that they’re great again. I’m not buying it. This spread is too high, and it may violate the Six and Six Rule.

2. This is a poor spot for the Chargers. They believe that they still have a chance at the playoffs, so they may not take the Bills seriously because their final three games are against the Ravens, Lions and rival Raiders. This is definitely a Breather Alert.

3. A trend that may tie into San Diego looking ahead is this: Home favorites of 6.5 points or more playing a non-divisional team with a losing record are 68-101 against the spread the past 20 years if they are underdogs in their next game against a winning opponent.

The Psychology. Edge: Bills.

A breather alert: After this easy game against the Bills, San Diego has to deal with Baltimore, Detroit and Oakland.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

Tons of money on the Chargers.

Percentage of money on San Diego: 75% (26,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

Monday Magic: Teams coming off MNF wins of 17+ are 42-23 ATS since 1999.

Bills are 19-12 ATS against losing teams since 2006.

Philip Rivers is 20-11 ATS as a starter after Nov. 30.

Opening Line: Chargers -6.5.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: .

Week 14 NFL Pick: Chargers 23, Bills 20
Bills +7 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Under 48.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Chargers 37, Bills 10

New York Giants (6-6) at Dallas Cowboys (7-5)
Line: Cowboys by 4.5. Total: 50.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 13): Cowboys -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 13): Cowboys -3.
Sunday, Dec. 11, 8:20 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Giants.

If you followed my 2011 Fantasy Football Rankings this summer and you’re wondering which players to start, I’ve got you covered. You can check out my Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em page (will be posted tonight) as well as my Weekly Fantasy Football Rankings, which will be updated by Wednesday afternoon each week.

DALLAS OFFENSE: The Cowboys basically spent the entire game in Arizona territory last week and came away with only 13 points. They made mistakes – more than just icing the kicker and letting time tick away – and the offensive line had major issues pass protecting. The Cardinals mustered a whopping five sacks in that contest.

If the Cardinals can tally five sacks, why not the Giants? New York is tied for sixth with 33 sacks on the year, even managing to bring down Aaron Rodgers twice – which is obviously no easy feat.

This doesn’t mean that the Cowboys won’t be able to score though. They’ll be inconsistent, but they’ll find the end zone on a few occasions because the Giants are poor against both the run (23rd; 4.6 YPC) and the pass (24th; 7.7 YPA). It’ll be important for DeMarco Murray to establish himself on the ground because he couldn’t do that last week. That would ease some of the pressure off Tony Romo.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Giants have the same pass protection problems as the Cowboys. It’s masked because Eli Manning gets the ball out quickly and has been able to avoid mistakes, but the two tackles have really struggled this year. DeMarcus Ware has a dream matchup against David Diehl.

Having said that, Clay Matthews owned a similar edge last week. Matthews came away with a sack, a forced fumble and a pick-six, but that didn’t mean that Manning wasn’t able to torch Green Bay’s secondary. Like the Packers, Dallas isn’t equipped to handle all of Manning’s downfield options.

It’ll be interesting to see what happens with the ground attack. The Cowboys are pretty mediocre against the run (14th; 4.2 YPC), and they’ll have issues stopping Ahmad Bradshaw if he’s at full strength. Whether Bradshaw is or not remains to be seen.

RECAP: I really like the Giants here. They own their NFC East rival in Cowboys Stadium, possessing a 4-2 straight-up and spread record in Dallas in the Eli Manning-Tony Romo era. I also feel like New York is the better team; that loss to Green Bay felt a lot like the Week 17 defeat against undefeated New England back in 2007. It could propel the Giants on a great run to close out the season.

The Cowboys, meanwhile, are overrated as usual. They’re 1-5 against the spread in their previous six games. They’ve lost to the Cardinals, and barely beat the Dolphins, Redskins and Seahawks.

Also, keep this in mind: Teams that lose on the road in overtime (Cowboys) suck against the spread the following week (28-60 ATS since 1994) as long as they’re not road dogs.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge.

The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.

The Giants are a public dog.

Percentage of money on New York: 79% (43,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Giants.

History: Giants have won 5 of the last 7 meetings.

Giants are 30-17 ATS on the road since 2006.

Tony Romo is 6-15 ATS as a starter after Nov. 30 (1-5 ATS as an underdog).

Opening Line: Cowboys -3.5.

Opening Total: 49.

Weather: .

Week 14 NFL Pick: Giants 34, Cowboys 31
Giants +4.5 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Over 50.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Giants 37, Cowboys 34

St. Louis Rams (2-10) at Seattle Seahawks (5-7)
Line: Seahawks by 9.5. Total: 38.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 13): Seahawks -4.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 13): Seahawks -6.
Monday, Dec. 12, 8:30 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Seahawks.

It’s Monday Night Football, but we’re going to have Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Don Tollefson and Herm Edwards, and inept ESPN guys Emmitt and Matt Millen. Here’s what it would sound like if those five clowns were calling this game:

Kevin Reilly: Welcome to, ah, who the hell cares, guys? My Eagles lost big time to the Seahawks, and our season is over. I think it’s time for me to commit suicide. Guys, should I hang myself, slit my wrists or light myself on fire?

Emmitt: Mike, football a great game, but it is not a manner of lifeness or deathness. The Eagle strugglin’ a li-bit right now, but a new season bring new hope, and with no hope bring new season.

Reilly: I appreciate you trying to make me feel better, Emmitt, but it’s not working. DeSean Jackson’s not trying. Andy Reid’s going to be fired. Nnamdi Asomugha is playing awfully. Why won’t DeSean try, guys? Why won’t DeSean try?

Herm: Gotta pay him! Gotta pay him! Gotta pay him! Gotta pay him! Show him the money! Show him the cash! Show him the green! Show him the Benjamins! If he gets money, he’ll try! If he tries, he’ll get money! That’s like the chicken and the egg! Did the egg come first!? Did the chicken come first!? What came first!? What came last!? Chicken before egg!? Egg before chicken!? Chicken before chicken!? Egg before egg!? Chicken before… uhh…

Reilly: No one gives a f*** about your f***ing chicken or your f***ing egg, idiot! Now shut the f*** up before I shove a chicken up your a**!

Millen: Wait one second here!

Reilly: Ah, f***ing hell. Why did I have to say that? Please Millen, my Eagles are dying. Spare me, I beg you.

Millen: Spare you from what?

Reilly: Umm… never mind. So, what do you think about my Eagles? Think we can turn it around?

Millen: Here’s what you mean by turn it around. A man has a chicken. Another man has an egg. The first man turns around, and the other shoves the egg up his backside. Then, the first man turns back around and tells the second one to turn around. After that, the first one shoves the chicken up his a**, and that, my friend, is what you mean by turn it around.

Reilly: I’m going to f***ing kill you!

Tollefson: Calm down, Kevin. I know what’ll make you feel better. How about I ask one of those Seattle cheerleaders to cook you a meal with this chicken and egg you seem to have?

Reilly: I don’t have a chicken or an egg! That was Herm saying nonsense!

Emmitt: Mike, you very upsetness right now at this very moment, but that do not mean you has to yell at the Herm because you do not like to eat chickens or the eggs.

Reilly: I can’t take it anymore. I just… I just can’t take it. Eagles… Eagles, why? Please, Eagles. Please turn it around.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: By the way, it was very amusing to listen to the Kevin Reilly Show after that Eagle loss. Reilly was so sad, it sounded like he was going to break down in tears.

Philadelphia’s poor tackling, when attempting to bring down Cmdr. Marshawn “Green Skittles” Lynch in particular, really bothered Reilly. Lynch ran with so much power though, and it’s hard to imagine him not demolishing St. Louis’ front seven. Chris Wells rushed for 228 yards against the Rams two weeks ago, so the “Runny Guy” could be in for a big night.

Tarvaris Jackson probably won’t need to throw much. If he has to air it out, he should be able to beat St. Louis’ injury-ravaged secondary. It helps that second-year Golden Tate really picked up the slack in Sidney Rice’s absence.

ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: This game could be a blowout if the Rams are forced to go with Tom Brandstater as their quarterback. Sam Bradford missed last week’s game with an ankle injury. It sounds like he might be able to play Monday night, but that’s still up in the air. A.J. Feeley, meanwhile, is out with a fractured thumb. If Bradford can’t go, it’ll be up to Brandstater, a sixth-round pick in 2009 who has never seen any NFL action.

Making matters worse, St. Louis’ quarterback won’t have the support of a sound rushing attack. Steven Jackson is going to find it difficult to run the ball against a Seattle defense that limited him to 42 rushing yards on 15 carries in Week 11.

With Jackson unable to do anything, the Rams will have major issues converting first downs, even if Bradford can play. St. Louis’ offensive line stinks and won’t be able to pass protect in long-yardage situations.

RECAP: It’s a shame that the Rams suck so much because I’d love them in this spot. As mentioned earlier, road underdogs coming off an away loss cover at a 66-percent clip. I also think this spread – presumably around seven – is too large for a sub-par team like Seattle.

I’ll have an official pick later in the week when a line is available.

LINE POSTED: The Seahakws are -10 because Tom Brandstater is the likely starter for the Rams. I’m going two units on the host, but I’ll hold off the bet until Monday just in case Sam Bradford recovers enough to be under center.

TEASER HEDGE: I’ve hit two-thirds of my teaser, so I’m taking the Rams +360 for half a unit.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

A predictable big lean on the Seahawks.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 68% (72,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

History: Seahawks have won 12 of the last 13 meetings.

Rams are 29-48 ATS in road games since 2001 (9-9 since 2009).

Rams are 20-32 ATS on grass since 2001.

Seahawks are 14-5 ATS as home favorites since 2007.

Opening Line: Seahawks -10.

Opening Total: 37.

Weather: .

Week 14 NFL Pick: Seahawks 26, Rams 3
Seahawks -9.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Under 36.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Seahawks 30, Rams 13

Week 14 NFL Picks – Early Games
Browns at Steelers, Colts at Ravens, Chiefs at Jets, Vikings at Lions, Texans at Bengals, Buccaneers at Jaguars, Falcons at Panthers, Eagles at Dolphins, Saints at Titans, Patriots at Redskins

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser: Packers -1.5, Patriots +2.5, Seahawks PK (3 Units) — Correct; +$300

Teaser Hedge: Rams +360 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$50

Moneyline Underdog: Bills +280 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$50

Moneyline Underdog: Giants +200 (0.5 Units) — Correct; +$100

NFL Picks - Nov. 23

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)