NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 14, 2011

NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2011): 5-9-2 (-$575)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2011): 6-8-2 (-$1,030)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2011): 10-5-1 (+$610)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2011): 7-9 (-$970)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2011): 9-4 (-$270)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2011): 5-7-1 (-$1,290)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2011): 4-8-1 (-$820)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2011): 3-10 (-$1,145)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2011): 7-7 (+$695)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2011): 9-7 (+$490)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2011): 6-7-1 (-$1,060)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2011): 7-9 (-$435)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2011): 11-5 (+$1,000)

NFL Picks (2011): 100-99-8 (-$3,460)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Dec. 12, 6:00 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 14 NFL Picks – Late Games

Cleveland Browns (4-8) at Pittsburgh Steelers (9-3)
Line: Steelers by 14. Total: 40.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 13): Steelers -14.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 13): Steelers -14.5.
Thursday, Dec. 8, 8:20 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Steelers.

Week 13 Recap: Pretty, pretty, pretty good. Hopefully more to come. I don’t have much to rant about this week. A couple of things:

Patriots -20 over Colts: Teams laying 20 or more are now 2-8 against the spread in the past 25 years. I thought New England would cover because Indianapolis might be the worst team we’ve ever seen, but Bill Belichick benched his starters when his team was up 31-3.

To prevent a brutal backdoor cover like this in the future, I suggest that all coaches should be forced to bet a couple thousand bucks on their team to cover the spread each week. I think this is a brilliant plan; it’ll force coaches to work extra hard (sorry, Jack Del Rio and Raheem Morris) and there won’t be nearly as many people suffering heart attacks from backdoor covers.

Packers -6.5 over Giants: This is the only big play I lost. The Giants are stupid. Once the Packers crossed the 25-yard line, they should have let Green Bay score. There was no way Aaron Rodgers wasn’t going to win the game at that point, so New York should have at least given itself a chance to score again.

Meh, OK, maybe not, but I’m getting tired of Eli Manning throwing touchdowns when he’s being sacked and doing a 360 as he’s hitting the turf. Every time I gamble against him, he does this. Every time I bet on him, there are no crazy 360s. I demand more crazy 360s when I bet on you, Eli!

Anyway, I’ll be posting these NFL Picks throughout the day. Follow me at @walterfootball for updates.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: It almost seems wrong to call this an offense. The Browns can’t really do anything. Running the ball is not an option because Peyton Hillis is sluggish and nursing injuries, and the offensive line can’t open up holes. Passing is less effective. On the rare occasions in which Colt McCoy gets time in the pocket, his receivers drop passes.

The Browns mustered just 13 first downs last week, and you have to think that they’ll be in for the same type of production against Pittsburgh, especially on a short work week. The Steelers just shut down Andy Dalton and Cedric Benson, so they shouldn’t have any issues with McCoy and Hillis.

You really have to wonder if McCoy is going to survive this game. McCoy was banged up last week after taking numerous hits. Those will keep on coming, as the Steelers have a huge matchup edge against Cleveland’s pedestrian offensive line.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The issue last week was Ben Roethlisberger’s thumb. Big Ben quelled those concerns, going 15-of-23 for 176 yards and two touchdowns against a tough Cincinnati defense.

It’s not talked about much, but the Browns have a pretty tough pass defense. They’ve surrendered more than 200 passing yards just once since their Week 5 bye. The Steelers have tons of weapons though, so it’ll be interesting to see how Cleveland performs in this matchup.

The Browns can be beat on the ground, as we saw Sunday when Ray Rice and Ricky Williams totaled close to 300 rushing yards. With Pittsburgh’s offensive line playing much better than it did at the beginning of the year, the front should be able to open up enough big holes for Rashard Mendenhall. This will make Roethlisberger’s life much easier.

RECAP: I love betting quality home teams on Thursday nights. It’s just way too tough to travel on three days’ rest. Also, Roethlisberger has a habit of beating up on divisional opponents (see trends below), so the Steelers should be able to cover pretty easily. I won’t go three-plus units though because I suck at picking Pittsburgh games.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

Bet you can’t guess whom the public is betting on.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 76% (31,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

History: Steelers have won 20 of the last 22 meetings.

Steelers are 24-9 ATS in December home games since 2000.

Ben Roethlisberger is 26-14 ATS vs. the AFC North.

Opening Line: Steelers -14.

Opening Total: 39.5.

Weather: .

Week 14 NFL Pick: Steelers 27, Browns 9
Steelers -14 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Under 40 (0.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Steelers 14, Browns 3
Steelers-Browns Recap

Indianapolis Colts (0-12) at Baltimore Ravens (9-3)
Line: Ravens by 16.5. Total: 41.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 13): Ravens -19.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 13): Ravens -17.5.
Sunday, Dec. 11, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Ravens.

Vegas Recap: Vegas has been losing for most of the year, but it just had a winning weekend. Seven of the 13 highly bet teams covered (Seahawks, Chiefs, Dolphins, Texans, Colts, Cardinals, Giants). The books lost with the Jets, Broncos, Ravens, 49ers, Saints and Chargers.

The house is still down for the season, so it’ll have to find some way to fix games in its favor. It’ll help if Jake Delhomme can play for the Texans. Delhomme’s son is probably getting kidnapped as you’re reading this, so expect T.J. Yates to suffer some mysterious injury sometime soon.

Anyway, I’ll be updating the Vegas betting action all week, as usual. I’ll notify you of any updates @walterfootball.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Colts finally have a quarterback! Well, not really. Just one who can score meaningless touchdowns in garbage time to get cheap, backdoor covers. Yeah, I’m bitter about Indianapolis beating the spread. Can you tell?

It’s obviously going to be tough for this team to score when the Ravens are trying. Baltimore is surrendering 3.3 YPC this season, good for second in the NFL, so Donald Brown and Joseph Addai won’t get anything on the ground. This will mean that Dan Orlovsky will have to beat one of the NFL’s top defenses on his own, with rookie left tackle Anthony Castonzo having to block Terrell Suggs. Good luck with that, Dan.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Indianapolis doesn’t have many talented players on its stop unit. One of the skilled defenders is cornerback Jerraud Powers. Unfortunately, Powers is done for the year.

The Colts were already are poor against the pass, so Powers’ absence is going to make it even easier for Joe Flacco. The only thing Baltimore needs to worry about in terms of its aerial attack is Flacco’s consistency. Which Flacco are they going to get? The one who torched Pittsburgh’s secondary, or the one who has struggled against inferior opponents?

Of course, it may not even matter as long Cam Cameron remembers to run the football. Indianapolis’ inability to stop the run is well-documented, so Ray Rice and Ricky Williams could approach 300 total rushing yards again.

RECAP: This spread is really high, and with Orlovsky proving that he can get crap, backdoor touchdowns in the fourth quarter, I think the Colts are the right side. There’s no way in hell I’d bet on them though.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 53% (35,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Ravens.

Colts are 45-31 ATS on the road since 2002.

Ravens are 14-9 ATS vs. teams with losing records under John Harbaugh.

Ravens are 5-3 ATS as double-digit home favorites under John Harbaugh.

Opening Line: Ravens -15.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: .

Week 14 NFL Pick: Ravens 30, Colts 17
Colts +16.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 41.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Ravens 24, Colts 10

Houston Texans (9-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (7-5)
Line: Bengals by 2.5. Total: 37.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 13): Bengals -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 13): Bengals -3.
Sunday, Dec. 11, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Texans.

Here are some random NFL notes I couldn’t post anywhere else:

1. Cam Newton – well done. I’m not referring to your record-breaking rushing touchdowns; I’m talking about giving the ball to a hot chick in the stands (at least I think she was hot from the brief look I had of her). Guaranteed bangage.

Actually, now that I think about it, it was a stupid move. The chick probably would have banged Newton regardless of giving her the record ball – she was wearing a Newton shirt – so the gesture was completely unnecessary.

Come on, Cam. Get your act together.

2. Perhaps I was on drugs Monday evening, but I swear I heard Chris Berman say, “You can’t root against the Bills or the Lions, it’s like rooting against a mosquito.”

I knew it. Berman is in league with mosquitoes. Everyone hates mosquitoes, so you’d think with all our technology, we’d find a way to eliminate them. So, why hasn’t that happened yet? Well, there is obviously an evil organization that makes sure mosquitoes bite us every summer – and I truly believe that Berman is running the whole thing.

3. Speaking of Berman, you know those old Star Trek episodes where the characters from an evil parallel universe have goatees? What if there’s an evil parallel universe where Berman and Tom Jackson do NFL highlights? I can imagine it now – Berman and Jackson, sporting goatees, sitting in a dark ESPN studio…

Evil Chris Berman: And T.J. “Master” Yates “to gay porn” into the end zone!

Evil Tom Jackson: Muhahahahahahahaha!

Evil Chris Berman: Arian “has so many kids in” Foster “care” with a gain of 12 yards!

Evil Tom Jackson: Muhahahahahahahaha!

Evil Chris Berman: Andre “has too big of a” Johnson “for Jerry Sandusky” makes the catch!

Evil Tom Jackson: Muhahahahahahahaha!

I don’t know about you, but I’d like to watch something like this. I’m sure that would come at the cost of being bitten by mosquitoes, however.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: T.J. Yates was impressive in his first start. There were some mistakes and his second half wasn’t very good (2-of-7), but he was solid overall for a fifth-round rookie playing in his second game as a pro.

Unfortunately, Andre Johnson is out. I don’t need to tell you that this will bog down Houston’s aerial attack – which is a shame for them because Cincinnati is banged up and currently vulnerable in the secondary.

Still, this doesn’t mean that the Texans won’t be able to move the football. The Bengals will load the line of scrimmage to stop Arian Foster, but Houston has one of the elite offensive lines in the NFL. Foster could have a decent outing, and Yates will be protected enough to convert some first downs.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The Texans are able to keep on winning without Matt Schaub and Nick Lachey’s BFF by running the ball really well and playing great defense. They limited the favored Falcons last week to 10 points, which was pretty impressive.

I’m expecting another spirited performance. Besides, it’s not like the Bengals really have much going for them at the moment. Andy Dalton has been clutch in fourth quarters, but he has struggled against some of these elite defenses he’s played recently. His offensive line couldn’t pass protect against the Steelers, so I have to wonder how the unit will be able to block the Texans, who have the second-most sacks in the league.

Running the ball won’t work either. The last time Houston has surrendered 100-plus rushing yards was back in Week 6 at Baltimore. And Cedric Benson is no Ray Rice.

RECAP: The Bengals really got up for playing the Steelers last week, but suffered a tough defeat. I think it’s going to be difficult for them to put as much emotion into this contest, since they happen to be favored over T.J. Yates.

I’ve pounded the Texans hard the past couple of weeks, and I’m doing so again. I don’t get how they can be three-point underdogs against the Bengals. Houston is so underrated right now. Cincinnati, meanwhile, hasn’t covered the spread since Week 9.

The Psychology. Edge: Texans.

The Bengals just suffered an emotional loss to the Steelers and now have to get up for a T.J. Yates-quarterbacked, Andre Johnson-less team as a favorite.

The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.
Slight lean on the visitor.

Percentage of money on Houston: 61% (36,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Texans.

Bengals are 7-23 ATS as a favorite since 2007.

Marvin Lewis is 3-7 ATS as a favorite coming off a SU win as an underdog.

Opening Line: Bengals -3.

Opening Total: 37.5.

Weather: .

Week 14 NFL Pick: Texans 17, Bengals 13
Texans +2.5 -105 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Under 37.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Texans 20, Bengals 19

Kansas City Chiefs (5-7) at New York Jets (7-5)
Line: Jets by 10.5. Total: 35.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 13): Jets -13.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 13): Jets -10.5.
Sunday, Dec. 11, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Jets.

More random NFL notes:

1. This segment will talk about some stupid media people. The worst is some host on 610 WIP (sports-talk station in Philly). I think his name is Ethan Chandler, or something, and he’s seldom on the air. All he does is yell incoherently, which makes him mildly amusing. He also says really idiotic things, however. For example, he argued that Joe Paterno should be thrown into prison right now. He also entertained a caller’s theory that Philadelphia owner Jeffrey Lurie only wants a black quarterback to win the Super Bowl for his team.

His dumbest comment:

“I’d rather have Tony Sparano as my coach right now over Andy Reid.”

I literally fell out of my chair when I heard that. Fortunately, I’m not fragile like Jahvid Best, so I didn’t suffer a concussion.

2. As for a more well-known media entity, I was surprised that Denver-Minnesota was aired on FOX, since CBS always handles a game when an AFC team is on the road. Maybe I’ll get into trouble for saying this, but these FOX announcers sucked. Facebook friend Tim B. said it best:

Who are these numpties commentating on the Broncos-Vikings game? Gerald Allen apparently is the Vikings’ star defensive end. Going on six times now.

3. Skip Bayless is one of the most polarizing on-air personalities. People either love him or hate him. But what about Lil Skip Bayless? Who’s that, you ask? Facebook friend Steven L. introduced me to him by showing tweets from Lil Skip Bayless:

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Would you rather have Tyler Palko or an injured Kyle Orton against Rex Ryan, Darrelle Revis and the Jet defense? Yeeesh. That’s like asking someone if they’d rather bang Rosie O’Donnell or Jerry Sandusky.

I can’t imagine the Chiefs scoring in this contest, regardless of which quarterback is under center. The Jets are fifth against the pass (6.6 YPA), but they could be 25th in that department, and I still wouldn’t like Palko or Orton’s chances. Revis is going to take out Dwayne Bowe, so the two quarterbacks will either have to force it in Revis’ direction, or look toward Steve Breaston and Jonathan Baldwin.

The Chiefs will attempt to run the ball with Dexter McCluster and company. This might work on occasion because McCluster is really quick and elusive, but he’s too small to carry any sort of load.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: I don’t think the Jets will score much either. The Chiefs have covered the spread against somewhat similar teams in Pittsburgh (factoring in Ben Roethlisberger’s fractured thumb) and Chicago – two offensively challenged squads with great defenses like the Jets – by playing tough defense.

Kansas City’s cornerbacks are outstanding. They really put the clamps on the Steeler aerial attack. Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown are better than Plaxico Burress and Santonio Holmes, so New York’s offense figures to be really bogged down.

If the Jets are going to win this game, they’ll have to pound the rock with Shonn Greene early and often. The Chiefs aren’t poor against the run, but they’re ranked in the middle of the pack. Greene will have to set up Mark Sanchez in favorable down-and-distance situations because Tamba Hali and the emerging Justin Houston (3 sacks last week) will be able to pressure him on obvious passing downs.

RECAP: There really aren’t any situational angles to support this pick, but I’m taking Kansas City in what figures to be a low-scoring game. The Chiefs have played incredible defense over the past two weeks, so I figure Sanchez will be good for a turnover or two.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.

Slight lean on the host.

Percentage of money on New York: 67% (37,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

Chiefs are 23-13 ATS as a road underdog since 2007.

Chiefs are 11-4 ATS as a double-digit underdog since 2006.

Todd Haley is 5-1 ATS in his second consecutive road game.

Opening Line: Jets -9.

Opening Total: 37.

Weather: .

Week 14 NFL Pick: Jets 16, Chiefs 10
Chiefs +10.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 35.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Jets 37, Chiefs 10
MISSING

Minnesota Vikings (2-10) at Detroit Lions (7-5)
Line: Lions by 11.5. Total: 46.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 13): Lions -7.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 13): Lions -7.
Sunday, Dec. 11, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Lions.

Complete Randomness: Back in the beginning of the year, I discussed all the stupid stuff that happened during the lockout because no one had anything else to talk about. For example, Peter King said the Chiefs wouldn’t be interested in signing Peyton Manning because they have the great Matt Cassel on their roster. Oops.

It didn’t get any better when the lockout was lifted. Adam Schefter tweeted the following during the free agency frenzy:

49ers sent out a mass email this afternoon to teams around the league to try and trade safety Taylor Mays.

I couldn’t resist. I replied back (@walterfootball):

31 teams marked it as spam.

Fortunately, I was recently able to secure a copy of San Francisco’s e-mail to the league. Don’t ask me how; just read and enjoy:

DETROIT OFFENSE: How many stupid mistakes can the Lions make this week? That’s the major problem with this team. They’re way too undisciplined. They look great, but absolutely destroy themselves with dumb mental errors.

The Lions have a great matchup edge in this contest. Minnesota’s secondary is in shambles, so Matthew Stafford will easily torch the Vikings with his plethora of talented targets. Of course, whether those targets commit offensive pass interference and personal foul penalties is the issue.

Kevin Smith’s availability would really help Detroit’s cause. Smith’s emergence in the Carolina game back in Week 11 added a new dimension that the Lions have missed since Jahvid Best got hurt, but Smith has injured his ankle in the previous two weeks. His status is completely in the air at this point, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Detroit opted to bench him so that he’s 100 percent for its Week 15 battle in Oakland.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Christian Ponder makes mistakes at times, but Viking fans have to be encouraged by what they’ve seen. I mean, scoring 32 points on a stout Denver defense (albeit without Von Miller) is no easy task.

The Lions are much worse than the Broncos right now, especially considering that Ndamukong Suh will be serving the second of his two-game suspension. Detroit’s secondary, like Minnesota’s, has been ravaged by injuries, so Ponder should have another quality outing.

The Vikings will also be able to run the football to take some pressure off their rookie quarterback. The Lions use a wide-nine defense like the Eagles, which would explain why they rank 28th against the run (4.8 YPC). Even the Saints rushed for 100 yards (on 23 carries) versus Detroit, so Toby Gerhart will pick up where he left off last week.

RECAP: Minnesota should be able to cover the spread. This matchup was close last time, and that was when Detroit had Best and Suh in the lineup going up against Donovan McNabb. The Vikings have improved since, while the Lions have declined.

I feel like Detroit is pretty overrated right now; it’s just 2-5 against the spread in its previous seven games, with one of the covers coming in that crazy comeback against the Panthers, which cost me $770. And I will now slam my head against my office wall.

There’s no line on this contest yet because of Adrian Peterson’s status, so check back when a spread is posted to get my official pick.

The Psychology. Edge: Vikings.

The Lions could be flat off their loss to the Saints, but this is a divisional matchup.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Slight lean on the Lions.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 58% (17,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Vikings.

History: Vikings have won 21 of the last 24 meetings.

Lions are 8-15 ATS against losing teams the previous 21 instances.

Opening Line: .

Opening Total: .

Weather: Dome.

Week 14 NFL Pick: Lions 24, Vikings 21
Vikings +11.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 46.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Lions 34, Vikings 28

New Orleans Saints (9-3) at Tennessee Titans (7-5)
Line: Saints by 3.5. Total: 49.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 13): Saints -6.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 13): Saints -5.
Sunday, Dec. 11, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Saints.

Some random college football notes I couldn’t post anywhere else:

1. Excluding not being able to watch a playoff, do you know what the dumbest part about the LSU-Alabama rematch is? These stupid, stubborn BCS supporters keep harping that college football is great because the regular season is important. Well, clearly it doesn’t, since Alabama lost the “Game of the Century,” yet it didn’t even matter.

College football is so f***ing stupid, I just can’t take it anymore. I kept my promise about not watching it. I’m done with college football until they install a playoff system. I’m not even going to watch a single minute of this bulls*** rematch, and I encourage you all to do the same. Oh, and if this doesn’t exist, #BoycottTheBowls. I think that’s how this Twitter hash tag thing works (@walterfootball).

2. Speaking of the bowls, I definitely will not be watching Penn State-Houston despite being an alumnus of the former. So many reasons: Don’t care. Meaningless game. Winner gets nothing. Better things to do. No Joe Paterno. College football blows.

Most of all, what the f*** is the Ticket City Bowl? These bowl blowers who don’t want a playoff always talk about the tradition of these bowls. What the hell is the tradition of the Ticket City Bowl? In 20 years, can any of these players look back and tell their kids, “I played in the Ticket City Bowl?” If they do, the only response they’ll get is, “That’s great dad, can I borrow 20 bucks?”

In summary, f*** college football and f*** the Ticket City Bowl.

3. A word on Houston. I was devastated to learn that they lost to Southern Miss. I wanted to call Houston the co-national champion along with LSU, just as I did with TCU and Auburn. And yeah, Auburn and TCU were co-national champs last year by definition. The idiots who call the regular season a “playoff” have to admit so – since you become champion of a playoff if you don’t lose.

Oh, and the commissioner of Conference USA should be fired. He should have made sure Southern Miss lost on purpose because Houston not being in a meaningless BCS bowl cost his conference $17 million. Asking a team to throw a game sucks, but he lost TONS of money for his people.

That’s the worst part about this bulls*** bowl system. The higher-ups don’t give a single damn about the teams or the players. It’s all about the money. A game shouldn’t cost an entire conference $17 million, or even 10 percent of that.

College football sucks. It really, really sucks.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Drew Brees is on fire and is on pace to break Dan Marino’s single-season yardage record. However, he’s done most of his damage at home or on the road in domes. Brees is only slightly less effective outdoors, but that small disparity could make all the difference.

The Titans actually rank third against the pass (6.4 YPA), so they actually have a chance to contain Brees. A small chance. Brees has so many weapons at his disposal that it’ll be difficult. But if the Rams can bog down the visiting Saints, Tennessee might be able to as well.

Tennessee is weakest defensively against the run; the team is 17th in that department (4.3 YPC), as it has given up three consecutive 100-yard rushing performances. Mark Ingram looks like he’s emerging as a more reliable player, so New Orleans could really lean on him in this contest.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Speaking of a running back emerging, Chris Johnson appears to have returned to CJ2K form. Johnson has rushed for 343 yards and two touchdowns on 46 carries the past two weeks. Based on this matchup, he could eclipse the 200-yard barrier for the first time all year.

The Saints are dreadful versus the rush. They give up 5.1 YPC – bad enough for 31st in the NFL. Their inability to stop the run sparked the Rams’ upset back in Week 8, so the same thing could happen this Sunday.

Johnson will open things up for Matt Hasselbeck, who probably didn’t need much help in the first place, given that the Saints have allowed four consecutive quarterbacks to throw for at least 280 yards. Tennessee’s aerial attack can really struggle at times because of Kenny Britt’s absence, but you have to like Hasselbeck’s chances in this matchup.

RECAP: I love the Titans for numerous reasons:

1. This is a meaningless game for the Saints. They’re two up in the division, and the Titans are an unfamiliar non-conference foe. Tennessee, meanwhile, has some catching up to do if it wants to win the AFC South.

2. A trend that I brought up thrice last week that went 2-1: Unrested home dogs are 95-47 against the spread off a straight-up road win playing against a team coming off a home victory.

3. The Saints are in a bad spot. Road favorites coming off standard rest after two consecutive wins as home favorites are 13-41 against the spread since 1995.

4. New Orleans isn’t nearly as good in outdoor games. It’s 1-3 against the spread this year when playing outside, and that one victory came at crappy Jacksonville.

5. There’s some shady spread action here. The line opened at -4.5, and despite tons of action on the Saints, it moved in Tennessee’s direction. As mentioned earlier, Vegas needs to recoup its losses.

The Psychology. Edge: Titans.

A pretty meaningless, non-conference game for the Saints.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.

The public is all over this small spread.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 80% (50,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

Drew Brees is 27-18 ATS off back-to-back wins.

Titans are 20-6 ATS in non-conference home games.

Matt Hasselbeck is 14-22 ATS off back-to-back wins.

Opening Line: Saints -3.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: .

Week 14 NFL Pick: Titans 27, Saints 24
Titans +3.5 -115 (4 Units) — Incorrect; -$460
Over 49.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Saints 22, Titans 17

Philadelphia Eagles (4-8) at Miami Dolphins (4-8)
Line: Dolphins by 3. Total: 44.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 13): Eagles -3.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 13): Dolphins -1.
Sunday, Dec. 11, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Dolphins.

If you’ve been following this site, you know that I make a habit of responding to my spam mails. Last week, I posted an e-mail from a Richard Held, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).”

Here was my response, with a reference from my Half-Norwegian, Half-Korean Bisexual Heritage Month entry:

Richard Held,

Hello, my name is Matthew Millen Kim. I won your Facebook contest. What a great month and a half this has been. First, I got to celebrate Half-Norwegian, Half-Korean Bisexual Heritage Month, and now I won 750,000.00 GBP.

I’m going to assume GBP stands for Green Bay Packers. I would love 750,000.00 Green Bay Packers. Heck, one makes me horny.

1. FULL NAMES: _Matthew Millen Kim____ 2.ADDRESS:__2000 Brush St_____ 3.CITY:__Detroit___
4. STATE: __MI____ 5.POSTCODE___48226____ 6.COUNTRY___USA___
7. SEX: __B____ 8.AGE:____53____ 9.OCCUPATION:__Kielbasa Stuffer____
10. TELEPHONE/MOBILE NUMBERS: __(313) 262-2000___ 11.FAX:___(313) 262-2000_____

Before you enter in my information, is it OK if I only use Facebook for lewd activities like downloading pictures of 100-percent USDA Men and Photoshopping kielbasas in their rear end?

Thanks,

Matthew Millen Kim

In case you were wondering, the address and phone number I gave to them belongs to Ford Field. I wish I could see the look on the Ford Field employees when someone calls up asking for a “Matthew Millen Kim.”

At any rate, I received two responses. One was unbelievably hilarious. I need to show you a screenshot because you wouldn’t believe me otherwise:

The other e-mail asked me to fill out a form. I sent it back to them:

OK, so they wouldn’t be stupid enough to accept that form, right?

Wrong!

I received the following e-mail a day later:

Dear Online Customer; Matthew Millen Kim,

This is to confirm the receipt of your email in this bank. The details of your mail along with the personal data you sent was noted, understood and have been recorded. You are required to pay the sum of �220.00 Pounds Sterling to this bank for our administrative charge. As soon as you make this payment, endeavor to send to us your complete bank account details of the nominated account where you want us to transfer your winning funds to.

You are to follow the below instruction, to make the payment of �220.00 Pounds Sterling;

You are to contact the nearest Western Union Money Transfer Office in your location and make payment to our Chief Account Officer (Mrs. Lindsay Ryan) with the payment details below:

AMOUNT: �220.00 Pounds Sterling equivalent to $355.00 US Dollar.
NAME: Mrs. Lindsay Ryan
ADDRESS: 209, Lower Addiscombe Rd, Croydon, Surrey. CRO 6RB, United Kingdom.

Two weeks ago, I asked if anyone reading this lived in or near Croydon to send a picture of the building to me. Many people e-mailed me a Google Maps image and told me it was a bank. E-mailer John L. sent a picture and a detailed description of what happened when he walked into the building and announced himself as Matthew Millen Kim. I’ll post that later.

At any rate, I didn’t check my e-mail for a few days, so they sent me another e-mail, asking the status of my award claims. They asked if I was “experiencing too much delay from the paying bank.” They then told me to contact someone named Loon Bruce, who sounds like a character from the Harry Potter books.

I sent over an e-mail to Loon Bruce:

Hello, my name is Matthew Millen Kim, and I won your Facebook prize.

I am having too much delay from the paying bank. I had the funds recently, but I landed on Park Place with three houses and had to pay the wheelbarrow $1,100.

You do not know how much I hate the wheelbarrow right now. I was planning to pay you guys and spend the excess monies on kielbasa, so I could use it when I invite some football players to my hotel room. Now, I only have $5 remaining with a Get Out of Jail Free card.

How much longer can I have to pay your fee? I am hoping to pass Go soon.

Thank you,

Matthew Millen Kim

As promised, here’s John L’s picture:

And here’s John L’s description of what transpired when he walked in:

I went into the bank with my girlfriend, (the photographer) and just to explain about the English banks, we have automated machines in them, so there is always a host there.

When we went in, I thought I would try my luck by coming up with an elaborate story so I could get a picture of Matthew Millen Kim at a machine or a counter. Well, the host had none of it and politely told us in no uncertain terms to leave and we couldn’t take any pictures, hence taking one from across the street.

In pleading to take a picture in the bank, the story I came up with was that Matthew Millen Kim was an eccentric recluse and we were taking pictures of him all over London for a charity fundraiser. I thought, the more obscure, the more likely they would believe it.

The host said she could not allow any pictures at all. At this point I asked her if she had any kielbasa. She had no idea what I was talking about and my girlfriend said, “stop right there” (she’s heard me talk about some of the stories off of your site). The host wanted to know what kielbasa was and I told her that is what Matthew Millen Kim was famous for, but also the reason he became a recluse!

We left at that point and the host harassed us outside the bank, so we crossed the road and got you the picture I sent yesterday.

Very strange that the people in this building wouldn’t know of Matthew Millen Kim when he’s due such a huge sum of money!

Some e-mailers have suggested that I should pay the “$355.00 US Dollar” to see what happens. I think I’m going to send over $355 in Monopoly money to get their reaction. Maybe I can print out fake Millen money. Anyone want to guess what’s on the $100 bill?

I’m going to do that soon. In the meantime, John L. printed out Matthew Millen Kim’s application and went back to the bank. Here’s what happened…

As you can probably imagine, the Natwest bank were unwilling to accept 220 Green Bay Packers. (I looked to see if I had any trading cards, but made do with a picture of the 2005 team).

I printed out Matthew Millen Kim’s application and the bank told me that it was clearly a hoax and to report it to the police.

I asked what I should do with the Green Bay Packers. I was told they can’t accept them, that would be either real people or pictures of them.

I thought of a way around it though, as like I said in my previous email, there are a lot of automated machines and I took the opportunity to try and deposit the 2005 Green Bay Packers.

There wasn’t a sort code or account number on the application, so I just used 03-12-58 as the sort code, (Matthew Millen Kim’s birthday) and 54352272 as the account number, (54352272 spells kielbasa on the phone).

Not sure about what would happen next, the slot opened and said, “please make your deposit.” I quickly stuffed the 2005 Green Bay Packers into the slot and ran away like a naughty child.

I think you should use this image below as evidence that Matthew Millen Kim has now deposited his Green Bay Packers, (I’m sure Judge Judy would accept this as evidence!)

I must admit, I would like to see the look on the faces of the cashiers when the machine is emptied in the morning!

Please try e-mailing Loon Bruce with details of the deposit and ask him to go to the Natwest Bank in Croydon to collect his Green Bay Packers.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: QB Dog Killer is back, so the Eagles no longer have to worry about having a quarterback who makes poor interceptions because can’t read defenses. Oh, wait…

Vince Young is one of the dumbest human beings alive, but QB Dog Killer’s football IQ isn’t much greater. Ever since the Vikings figured him out last year, he’s been a turnover machine, mainly because he struggles diagnosing defensive schemes. Miami’s stop unit has been incredible lately, so everyone’s favorite redeemed quarterback is in for a tough matchup.

The smart thing to do would be to rely on LeSean McCoy, but that’s too easy. Andy Reid scoffs at calling simple run plays and giving his best player as many touches as possible. What kind of a dumb game plan is that? The Dolphins are actually sixth versus the run, so even if Reid doesn’t eat the rushing portion of his playbook prior to kickoff (OK, I used that joke last week), McCoy may not have much success on the ground anyway. Regardless, he’d still need to get as many receptions out of the backfield as possible.

MIAMI OFFENSE: Matt Moore’s turnaround from that brutal Monday night loss against the Jets has been incredible. Since Week 9, he’s completed 64.3 percent of his passes with eight touchdowns to just one interception.

The Eagles looked to have a stout cornerbacking corps at the beginning of the year, but Moore is catching them at the right time. Nnamdi Asomugha is playing on one leg. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is also hurt. The safeties and linebackers continue to struggle. Moore should have another solid outing, further dispelling the notion that his team needs to select one of the blue-chip quarterbacks in the 2012 NFL Draft.

Having said that, Moore won’t have to do much if the Dolphins stick to running the ball with Reggie Bush. Philadelphia’s defensive struggles versus the rush surfaced again this past Thursday night when Cmdr. Marshawn “Green Skittle” Lynch went into Beast Mode and completely debacled the Eagles’ flawed defense.

RECAP: I like betting on good teams missing their quarterback in the first game. I also like betting against those same good teams when their quarterback returns to the lineup. The Eagle players may think they won’t have to give 100 percent with QB Dog Killer back under center – which won’t be the first time they’ve slacked off this year.

I’m picking the Dolphins, but I won’t be betting on them. As I mentioned three weeks ago in the Giant game, I like Philadelphia in an underdog role. Also, away teams getting points following a road loss cover the spread at a 66-percent clip. I’m not going against that.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 54% (37,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

Andy Reid is 12-6 ATS in his second consecutive road game.

Eagles are 14-24 ATS vs. AFC opponents since 2001.

Dolphins are 11-4 ATS as a home underdog after two straight losses the previous 15 instances.

Dolphins are 5-10 ATS vs. NFC teams under Tony Sparano.

Opening Line: Dolphins -3.5.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: .

Week 14 NFL Pick: Dolphins 24, Eagles 17
Dolphins -3 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 44.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Eagles 26, Dolphins 10

New England Patriots (9-3) at Washington Redskins (4-8)
Line: Patriots by 7. Total: 47.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 13): Patriots -7.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 13): Patriots -7.
Sunday, Dec. 11, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Patriots.

Video of the Week: If you’ve been reading this site for more than a week, you know how much I hate ESPN. If you haven’t seen this yet, here’s a video proving that the idiots over at ESPN are complete hypocrites.

Some thoughts on this:

1. If I learned one thing from ESPN this past month: It’s OK not to report child rape to the authorities unless you’re an 80-year-old Italian man.

2. For those of you who were duped by ESPN during the Joe Paterno coverage, I hope you now realize that you were watching an entirely media-created news event. ESPN is supposed to report the news. Instead, they manufactured the news. They didn’t report all the facts – for instance, thanks to ESPN’s incredibly biased coverage, most people don’t know that Paterno spoke to both the proxy for the chief of police at Penn State and child services.

But no – Paterno had to fired right away because ESPN said so. There’s no way it could have been done a week or a month later after all the facts were gathered. That wouldn’t make ESPN nearly enough money.

3. Speaking of Paterno getting fired, if you still have biased-media blinders on, you may not have heard that the Penn State Board of Trustees may have violated the Sunshine Law when it fired Paterno.

Could Paterno get his job back? I don’t know, but I hope so. If he does, however, that’s just more money in ESPN’s pocket though, so it’ll be bittersweet.

4. I love the quote from Makachopping’s post in the aforementioned video:

“Come talk to me when you all know more than what was spoon-fed to you by the media. They had physical evidence of this nonsense and nothing was done. JoePa went to the head of Campus Police about this. Bet you didn’t know that. Maybe you would if you stopped watching the news networks that villified him. Do you even know the name of the man that [sic] abused those poor children. Probably not, considering he hasn’t been mentioned in weeks. “Sandusky” doesn’t sell, but “JoePa” does.

Brilliant. Once again, it’s all about money in ESPN’s pocket, yet naive people continue to think that ESPN is preaching the absolute truth. It’s a damn shame that some people are so influenced by the biased media.

Heads need to roll at ESPN. They had a taped conversation about a Syracuse basketball coach who molested a kid for eight years. How the hell can they get away with not going to the police when they were the ones who essentially fired Paterno for not doing the same thing despite the fact that unlike ESPN, Paterno had no proof?

5. For anyone not getting my point – I already received a couple e-mails about it – I’m not comparing the Penn State and Syracuse scandals. I’m comparing what Joe Paterno heard versus the taped phone conversation ESPN had in its possession. All Paterno had was hearsay, and yet he still went to the police. ESPN possessed an actual admission of child molestation, yet did nothing. For that reason, what ESPN didn’t do is so much worse than what Paterno didn’t do (even though Paterno did do some stuff).

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: If you haven’t heard, the NFL has officially suspended tight end Fred Davis and left tackle Trent Williams for the final four games of the season. That’s just what Rex Grossman needed – to lose his top target and best offensive lineman after a brutal performance.

Grossman committed only two turnovers against the Jets, but he had so many interceptions either nullified by penalty, dropped or tipped around. His pass protection will be much worse without Williams, and he won’t be able to lean on Davis. There could totally be tons of “Bad Rex” in this contest.

The Redskins will have to lean on Roy Helu, who is officially the full-time back after Mike Shanahan foolishly played games with his runners ever since Tim Hightower went down. Helu will make for a good pass-catching weapon out of the backfield in this contest, but he won’t find many lanes to scamper through, as New England is 11th versus the rush (4.1 YPC).

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: While Washington’s offense will struggle, the Patriots won’t face much of a challenge, even though the Redskins have improved defensively ever since swapping Perry Riley into the lineup in favor of the ineffective Rocky McIntosh.

Tom Brady is just too good and has way too many weapons at his disposal. I’m sure there will be a couple of punts early on, but New England’s pattern the past month or so has been to move into a no-huddle near the middle of the second quarter once Brady figures out what the defense is doing. It’s almost like a boxer taking a few jabs at his opponent early in a match so he can learn the other fighter’s tendencies.

The one thing the Redskins do especially well is get to the quarterback; they’re sixth in sacks with 33. This presents a problem, however, as Brady has been sacked just five times in the past four weeks.

RECAP: I’m not betting this high road spread, but I would take the Patriots if I had to. Brady’s on fire, and I just don’t know how the Redskins can keep up with their two best offensive players suspended.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on New England: 88% (51,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: .

Patriots are 27-15 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.

Tom Brady is 130-43 as a starter (101-68 ATS).

Opening Line: Patriots -7.5.

Opening Total: 38.

Weather: .

Week 14 NFL Pick: Patriots 34, Redskins 17
Patriots -7 (0 Units) — Push; $0
Over 48 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Patriots 34, Redskins 27

Atlanta Falcons (7-5) at Carolina Panthers (4-8)
Line: Falcons by 3. Total: 47.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 13): Falcons -2.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 13): Falcons -1.
Sunday, Dec. 11, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: None.

Bo-Bo has retired, so as promised, here’s the NFL.com Fantasy Draft – Round 4:

Rich Eisen: Welcome back to Round 4. When we left off, I screwed Dennis Green over by making him trade Larry Fitzgerald for the Tampa Bay defense if the BUccaneers don’t score 500 points in Week 1.

Dennis Green: That’s bulls**t, bulls**t!

Rich Eisen: It is, but you’re such an a**hole that I don’t care. Brian Billick, you’re on the clock!

Brian Billick: Hem, hem…

Rich Eisen: I’m not doing it, Brian. I’m not doing it.

Brian Billick: Hem, hem…

Rich Eisen: Ugh. Fine. Only because I want to have this draft finish prior to the Super Bowl. Brian Billick, the first his name, the overlord of football knowledge, the overseer of offenses and the protector of the Lombardi Trophy, you’re on the clock.

Brian Billick: Why, thank you, Richard. That’s awfully nice of you. But I will let Lady Henderson draft before me.

Rich Eisen: What?

Brian Billick: Richard, I realize that you possess 3 percent of my brainpower, but please try to keep up. I want Lady Kara Henderson to draft before me.

Kara Henderson: Why would you want me to draft before you? I don’t get it. Just pick the player.

Brian Billick: Lady Kara Henderson, you offend me. Here I am, Brian Billick, the first his name, the overlord of football knowledge, the overseer of offenses and the protector of the Lombardi Trophy, being charitable enough to let you pick before me, and what do you do but spit in my face?

Kara Henderson: I don’t need your charity. What, because I’m a woman you need to take pity on me? I will destroy you in our fantasy matchup this year, jerk!

Brian Billick: Ha! You think I’m letting you go first because you’re a woman!? I hardly noticed, for I have been too busy gazing into my magic mirror! I am letting you go because you are only 1 percent as intelligent as I, Brian Billick, the first his name, the overlord of football knowledge, the overseer of offenses and the protector of the Lombardi Trophy.

Kara Henderson: Oh yeah? If you’re so intelligent, what happened with Kyle Boller?

Brian Billick: I… umm… I… uhh…

Kara Henderson: Suck on it. I’m picking Hakeem Nicks, who is still available for unknown reason.

Brian Billick: I will take Matt Stover.

Kara Henderson: Who the hell drafts a kicker in the fourth round? The same guy who drafts Kyle Boller in the first round!

Rich Eisen: And with that pwnage, Brian Billick, you have lost all titles and lands. May God have mercy on your soul. Let’s take a break while Billick dries the tears off his face. Stay tuned next week for Round 4. This draft will never end.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: I still can’t believe that T.J. Yates outplayed Matt Ryan. Ryan completed 43 percent of his passes at Houston. He overthrew and underthrew open receivers all afternoon. He had a strip-sack nullified by a penalty. And on the rare occasions in which he put the ball right on the money, his receivers let him down with drops.

The Falcons just have major problems scoring on the road, especially when they have to play outdoors. But if they were ever going to pick things up in these conditions, it would be against the Panthers, who just suck in every aspect defensively.

Carolina is dead last versus the pass (8.3 YPA) and 26th against the run (4.8 YPC), though it’s worth noting that they limited LeGarrette Blount and the Buccaneers to 33 rushing yards on 22 carries last week. Having said that, it’s hard to believe that Blount’s struggles weren’t a fluke. Michael Turner should have a good game, which will open things up for Ryan.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: The Panthers will be able to score as well. Cam Newton had made poor decisions in losses to the Titans and Lions in Weeks 10 and 11, but hasn’t given up the football since.

This is good news because Newton had three interceptions at Atlanta back in Week 6. However, top Falcon corner Brent Grimes had one of those picks, and he’s out with a knee injury. His absence really hurt at Houston.

Newton will wreak havoc upon Atlanta’s stop unit, both on the ground and through the air. The Falcons just made a fifth-round rookie look pretty good last week, so a red-hot, confident Newton will be difficult to contain.

RECAP: There are some situational angles in the Falcons’ favor, so I don’t like Carolina very much. I am taking the Panthers though, since Atlanta is really overrated and tends to struggle outside of the Georgia Dome. This line is also out of whack; there is no way that the Falcons are six points better than Carolina on a neutral field.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.

A decent lean on the Falcons.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 72% (36,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Falcons.

History: Home Team has won 6 of the last 7 meetings.

Mike Smith is 14-5 ATS after a loss.

Mike Smith is 5-0 ATS after a loss as a favorite.

Panthers are 28-40 ATS at home since 2003.

Opening Line: Falcons -2.5.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: .

Week 14 NFL Pick: Panthers 26, Falcons 20
Panthers +3 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Under 47.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Faclons 31, Panthers 23

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-8) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-9)
Line: Buccaneers by 3. Total: 41.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 13): Jaguars -1.5.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 13): Buccaneers -1.5 (Freeman) or Jaguars -1.5 (Johnson).
Sunday, Dec. 11, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Buccaneers.

As a reminder, get your pick in for the WalterFootball.com 2011 NFL Survivor Pool. There are now only 3 entries remaining from the 2,749 that started. Three people lost last week with the horrible Bears. Lesson learned – never pick horrible quarterback who may or may not be drunk during the game.

Also, you can create your own 2012 NFL Mock Draft. If it’s good and the write-ups make factual/logical sense, it can be featured in the 2012 NFL Mock Draft Database.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: LeGarrette Blount is a stand-up guy. He blamed his poor numbers against the Panthers on Josh Johnson, citing that Carolina didn’t respect the backup quarterback enough, and that running the ball wasn’t an option when they fell behind early. A class act, that LeGarrette.

Josh Freeman’s status is unknown, which would explain why there’s no line. Freeman told the media that he believes he’ll play at Jacksonville, but that doesn’t really mean much, since most players are overconfident in that regard.

Blount may disagree, but I don’t know if it’ll matter whether Freeman or Johnson starts. Jacksonville’s defense is so decimated by injury that it can’t stop the run or the pass, or get to the quarterback.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: If Johnson gets the nod for Tampa, he’ll be the best quarterback on the field. Blaine Gabbert really sucks. He’s skittish in the pocket, he has no pocket awareness, he’s inaccurate, and he’s afraid to take shots downfield.

The Buccaneers are anemic defensively, ranking 31st against aerial attacks (8.2 YPA), but I don’t think Gabbert has the passing skills or personnel to take advantage of this. The Chargers are only slightly better (26th; 7.8 YPA), and Gabbert could barely do anything outside of two drives.

The Jaguars will find the end zone once or twice because of Maurice Jones-Drew. He’s literally carrying this offense, and he’ll once again be able to do that because Tampa Bay is 27th versus the rush (4.8 YPC). As we saw Monday night though, Jones-Drew can’t do everything by himself.

RECAP: As much as the Buccaneers have struggled since losing Gerald McCoy back in early October, the Jaguars have been worse because of Gabbert’s terrible quarterbacking and all of the defensive talent they lost to injury in the past month. Jacksonville is also in tough spot here coming off a Monday night blowout. Teams in this situation are just 19-37 against the spread since 1999.

I’ll have an official pick posted once there’s a spread on this game.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge.

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.
No surprise that people are betting on Tampa after that Monday night game.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 64% (13,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: TBA.

Monday Misery: Teams coming off MNF losses of 17+ are 19-37 ATS since 1999.

Buccaneers are 3-7 ATS as road favorites since 2004. ???

Jaguars are 6-12 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2007.

Jaguars are 12-26 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Jaguars are 4-12 ATS as home favorites since 2008. ???

Opening Line: .

Opening Total: .

Weather: .

Week 14 NFL Pick: Buccaneers 23, Jaguars 13
Buccaneers -3 +105 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100
Under 39 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Jaguars 41, Buccaneers 14

Week 14 NFL Picks – Late Games
49ers at Cardinals, Bears at Broncos, Raiders at Packers, Bills at Chargers, Giants at Cowboys, Rams at Seahawks

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 14 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Nov. 20

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

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2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)