NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 11, 2012

NFL Picks (Preseason 2012): 6-9-1 (-$1,440)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2012): 3-13 (-$2,250)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2012): 8-7-1 (+$430)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2012): 7-9 (+$70)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2012): 7-8 (+$640)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2012): 7-7 (-$340)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2012): 9-5 (+$1,670)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2012): 7-5-1 (+$420)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2012): 6-8 (-$450)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2012): 8-6 (+$240)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2012): 8-6 (+$730)

NFL Picks (2012): 76-83-3 (-$280)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 18, 11:59 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 11 NFL Picks – Late Games

Miami Dolphins (4-5) at Buffalo Bills (3-6)
Line: Bills by 2.5. Total: 45.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Dolphins -1.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 10): Dolphins -1.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 10): Dolphins -1.
Thursday, Nov. 15, 8:20 ET
Discuss Week 11 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: None.

Week 11 NFL Picks will be posted all day Wednesday, per the new schedule. I’ve received mix reaction to this, so voice your opinion via e-mail or in the comment box below. Follow me @walterfootball for updates.

WEEK 10 RECAP: A pretty solid week overall. I went 8-6 at +$730. I lost a trio of two-unit picks, so I’d like to discuss them to see where I went wrong:

Raiders +7.5 over Ravens (2 units): I can be so stupid sometimes. Upon hearing that Oakland defensive line coach Terrell Williams lost his 4-year-old son, I moved this from zero to two units because I thought the Raiders would play hard for him. Wait… Oakland playing hard for a good purpose? Seriously, how dumb is that on my part? The Raiders are a disgrace.

Panthers +3.5 over Broncos (2 units): I’m going to have to use the F-word for this one. Fixed. This game was fixed. At least it appeared that way when the replay officials didn’t bother to review a blatant drop of the ball on Trindon Holliday’s touchdown return. The score gave the Broncos a double-digit lead and changed the dynamics of the game. Maybe Denver still would have covered, but when something as obvious as that isn’t even looked at, it makes me think that someone wanted to make sure the Broncos beat the spread.

Eagles +2 over Cowboys (2 units): I’m going to let e-mailer Rashaun P. handle this one:

Hey Walt I got two words for you, f*** Reid. The play on the Eagles was smart money to begin with, especially being 2 point underdogs at home!! It was a close game but then only naturally the backup QB Foles comes in and makes rookie mistakes (only natural like I said). But let’s get to the real point. Vick has a concussion!!? Are you kidding me, from what?? But OK lets say he has a concussion, Reid puts in Foles and he is doing decent. Then Foles f***s up major and costs his team a touchdown in a tight game. OK, I can deal with it with some time left in the game, but tell me this, why does Reid come down the the 2 minute warning in the 4th quarter and have the most conservative game plan for Foles??? I mean Jesus yeah it’s his first action but come on what do you have to lose??

This is my conspiracy theory… Reid takes out Vick on some bulls*** “concussion call” to try out Foles, if Foles f***s up, hey it’s Foles’ fault, Reid keeps his job and justifies Vick as his QB. If Foles does good and wins the game, then hey Reid does a “great job” with drafting and has his new QB. Either way Foles came in and did not live up to expectations, Reid calls a conservative game plan for him (not to mention they already barely ran Mccoy), they try to run Mccoy but the Cowboys know what’s coming and thus prepare for the fact.

Reid was trying to save his job and did a great job of doing it like the scumbag he his, instead of trying to win the game. So hey Walt, all I’m saying is I’m on the same side as you, the Eagles were the right play and the Cowboys were NOT the reason they f***ed up, but their own team, Andy F***ing Reid.

As a man who loves conspiracy theories, I’m a fan of what Rashaun wrote – and Rashaun even forgot senile Walt Coleman’s determination that Dez Bryant caught that touchdown pass, which was a blatant drop, as determined by FOX’s Mike Pereira.

Now, it’s time to review what the media overreacted to last week:

1. I still think what was said about the Broncos still applies. One of the NFL Network analysts said that Denver will finish with the No. 1 seed.

2. A lot was made of the Chargers’ Thursday night win, but they didn’t exactly outplay the Chiefs.

3. Bill Simmons said he wouldn’t want to face the Colts in the first round of the playoffs. He’s scared of Andrew Luck, but completely ignored the terrible defense.

Fading the media went 4-0 back in Week 6, but it was only 1-2 this past weekend, though I still think it applies to Indianapolis. That Jacksonville game was ridiculous.

Here’s what the media is overreacting to this time:

1. Everyone is back on the Saints’ bandwagon. Eric Mangini said that they are the most dangerous team in the NFL.

2. The Giants are done, apparently.

3. From last week: Bill Simmons said he wouldn’t want to face the Colts in the first round of the playoffs. He’s scared of Andrew Luck, but completely ignored the terrible defense.

4. Simmons also denounced the Patriots in a rant on one of his recent podcasts. I’ve always believed it’s good to bet on a team when its homers give up on it.

I’ll be posting these NFL Picks throughout the day. Follow me at @walterfootball for updates.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: You have to love the ineptitude of the Bills. They spent the entire week harping about how they have to get C.J. Spiller more touches after giving him the ball just 11 times at Houston. So, what do they do? They give him just 13 touches at New England. Seriously, how can a team be so stupid? Why would you ever leave your best offensive player on the bench?

Chan Gailey won’t have a choice but to use Spiller because Fred Jackson is likely to be out. This is bad news for the Dolphins, who have struggled mightily against the run recently. They’ve surrendered 4.7 YPC to the opposition in their previous four games. Spiller has proven that he can go nuts if given the opportunity, so I’d expect a big game out of him.

With Spiller picking up big chunks of yardage, Ryan Fitzpatrick will have plenty of opportunities to dissect a Miami secondary that is just two weeks removed from allowing Andrew Luck to throw for a record-setting 433 yards.

MIAMI OFFENSE: There’s Buffalo and Spiller. The Jets and Tim Tebow. And the Dolphins and Reggie Bush. All three of these moronic AFC East teams keep their best offensive player on the bench. No wonder the Patriots win this division every single year. Bill Belichick has to be looking at these idiot teams and laughing his a** off.

Bush saw just five touches against the Titans, which is inexcusable. Yes, it was because he lost a fumble in the first quarter, but that’s not a reason to go completely away from him. He’s still Miami’s best chance of scoring – and by a wide margin because Daniel Thomas sucks. Bush promised to correct his fumbling issue, so if he can stay on the field, he should be able to abuse a Buffalo defense that ranks dead last versus the rush (5.23 YPC).

The Bills also struggle to get to the quarterback and stop the pass, so Ryan Tannehill should be able to rebound off a miserable performance. Tannehill has been overhyped by ESPN – Trent Dilfer recently showed a “great” highlight reel of his in which Tannehill threw mostly checkdowns – but he’s not as bad as he looked versus Tennessee. With loads of time in the pocket, Tannehill should be able to move the chains effectively.

RECAP: I really suck with these Thursday night contests. I’ve only gotten one right all year – Titans over Steelers – and that was a zero-unit selection. I like the Dolphins because everyone is overreacting to what happened last week, but there’s no way in hell I’m betting on them.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still would take the Dolphins, but even though this spread has risen to 2.5, I’m not betting on it because I need to figure out how to handicap Thursday night games first.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.

I can’t remember the last time the public bet on the Bills like this.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 69% (27,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.

History: Dolphins have won 6 of the last 8 meetings.

Bills are 13-8 ATS after playing the New England Patriots since 1999.

Bills are 24-13 ATS in November home games the previous 37 contests.

Bills are 21-15 ATS against losing teams since 2006.

Opening Line: Bills -1.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: .

Week 11 NFL Pick: Dolphins 20, Bills 16
Dolphins +2.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 45 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Bills 19, Dolphins 14
Recap of this game

Philadelphia Eagles (3-6) at Washington Redskins (3-6)
Line: Redskins by 3.5. Total: 44.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Redskins -1.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 10): Redskins -2.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 10): Redskins -2.5.
Sunday, Nov. 18, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 11 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Redskins.

VEGAS RECAP: The sportsbooks lost a record amount of money last week when all seven highly bet teams covered. Once again, there were seven highly bet teams. They went 3-4 against the spread, so Vegas recouped some of its losses. One decent weekend for them may not be enough after that Week 10 blood bath, however.

I’ll be updating the Vegas betting action all week, as usual. I’ll notify you of any updates @walterfootball.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: It’s the end of one era and the beginning of another in Philadelphia. Nick Foles will start against the Redskins, and I doubt he’ll relinquish the job unless he’s completely awful. He did some nice things against the Cowboys, but some of his throws were completely inaccurate. The decision-making wasn’t very good either, but I’ll cut him some slack; it was his first NFL action, and he was playing a solid defense with no reps or preparation during the week.

Foles will be in a much better position at Washington. The Redskins’ secondary is an abomination, ranking 27th in the NFL (7.7 YPA). Safety Brandon Meriweather figures to be back in the lineup, which will help, but it’s not like he’s a Pro Bowl talent or anything. Also, Washington barely puts any pressure on the quarterback. Thanks to Brian Orakpo’s injury, the team has the fewest sacks in the NFL since Week 3 if you exclude the Raiders and Jaguars. It’s well documented how atrocious Philadelphia’s offensive line is, but it could have success blocking the Redskins – especially considering that the Eagles now have a quarterback who can actually read the blitz.

I’d discuss Philadelphia’s ability to run the ball against a Washington stop unit that has surrendered 4.5 YPC in its previous four games, but Andy Reid doesn’t believe in giving LeSean McCoy the appropriate amount of carries, so I won’t even bother.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Given the amount of high-profile names the Eagles have on defense, it’s amazing how inept they are when it comes to stopping the opposition. The Philadelphia defenders miss a ridiculous amount of tackles each week. Nate Allen and Kurt Coleman are the only safety tandem in the NFL that each has double-digit missed tackles. It’s a disgrace.

Robert Griffin has been awesome for the most part in his young NFL career. The Eagles, who have just as many sacks as the Redskins (14), won’t be able to apply any pressure on the rookie signal-caller, who will undoubtedly torch their underachieving secondary. Of course, Griffin’s receivers have to actually catch the football; they dropped a whopping 10 passes against the Steelers back in Week 8.

The Eagles can’t stop the run either, so maybe this will help the Redskins convert in the red zone, where they’ve struggled recently. However, the one thing Philadelphia’s defense does well is put the clamps on the opposition inside the red zone, ranking a surprising sixth in that regard. If the Redskins keep coming away with threes instead of sevens, the Eagles will have a chance to spring the upset.

RECAP: And I think the Eagles will pull the upset. This is a terrible spot for the Redskins. Here’s why:

1. Favorites are 1-9 against the spread prior to Thursday games this year. Playing on just three days’ rest is just too taxing, so teams have to save their energy. Favorites apparently think they can get away with it.

2. Washington was in a poor position anyway because it will be an underdog in a divisional matchup next week against Dallas. Do you think the Redskins will be more focused on the crappy Eagles or arch-rival Cowboys?

3. The Eagles will be completely focused for this game. All they have next week is a battle against the Panthers at home. This is essentially do or die for them; six losses can still get you into the playoffs. Seven is game over.

4. The public is pounding Washington. Remember, Vegas needs to recoup its losses.

5. We’re getting good line value with the Eagles. The Redskins were -1.5 a week ago, but now they’re -3.5 because of the quarterback change? Please. Foles’ predecessor was one of the most overrated players in the NFL.

6. I don’t like the Redskins in the role of a favorite yet. They’re 0-3 against the spread in that dynamic this season. Remember, they lost to the garbage Panthers at home. They do not deserve to be laying more than a field goal against anyone except for the Jaguars.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still love the Eagles.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.

Robert Griffin versus Nick Foles? Come on.

Percentage of money on Washington: 74% (40,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

History: Eagles have won 5 of the last 6 meetings.

New Thursday Schedule: Favorites are 1-9 ATS prior to Thursday games this year.

Mike Shanahan is 9-5 ATS coming off a bye (0-1 with Redskins).

Opening Line: Redskins -3.5.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: .

Week 11 NFL Pick: Eagles 26, Redskins 23
Eagles +3.5 (4 Units) — Incorrect; -$440
Over 44.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Redskins 31, Eagles 6

Green Bay Packers (6-3) at Detroit Lions (4-5)
Line: Packers by 3. Total: 52.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Packers -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 10): Packers -1.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 10): Packers -3.
Sunday, Nov. 18, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 11 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Packers.

HATE MAIL: Another week, another stack of hate mails. I have only four this week:

(Twitter) why did u have them covering tonight you moron. RT No way can #Jaguars expect fans to buy tickets in 2013 if Blaine Gabbert’s still QB.

Uhh… obviously because I’m an idiot who likes to pick terrible teams to cover. Duh.

i felt alot better about this picks before walter gave them out, he is a mess in nba . #waltersucks

To tell you the truth, I also felt better about them before I posted them on this site. #yesireallydosuck

i almost wanna bet against every one of walters early picks .. he makes no sense

And you no longer have any cents. Get it? Sense, cents? Ha!

cOLTS ARE F#CKING RANKED 21?! ARE YOU RETARDED WALT? DID YOUR MOM DROP YOU ON THE HEAD AND FEED YOU A GALLON OF STUPID JUICE AS A BABY???? THEYRE THE WILDCARD TEAM RIGHT NOW! ANDREW LUCK IS THE NEXT JOHN ELWAY!!!!!!! YOUR IGNORANCE IS OFFENSIVE! THE DALLAS FREAKING COWBOYS WITH THEIR STUPID OVER RATED RECIEVERS AND TONY HOMO ARE RANKED HIGHER AND THE MINNESOTA FREAKING VIKINGS WITH CHRISTIAN POOPER ARE HIGHER! YOURE AN @SS HOLE WALT.

Hey, hey, hey, my mom did not feed me a gallon of stupid juice. That juice was definitely not stupid. She said it was smart juice and that it would make me very intelligent, so shut up!

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Aaron Rodgers is awesome enough on his own, but the Lions are making it very easy for him with all of these injuries. Detroit’s secondary is completely battered right now. Stud safety Louis Delmas is expected to be out again, as is fellow safety Amari Spievey. Meanwhile, top corner Chris Houston suffered an ankle malady against the Vikings. Even if he plays, he may not be 100 percent. Detroit was already without starting corner Bullet Bill Bentley, who is out for the year.

Rodgers won’t have any issues dissecting Detroit’s secondary, especially with Jordy Nelson expected back in the lineup. Nelson practiced both Monday and Wednesday coming off a hamstring, so this is obviously a great sign for Green Bay.

The Packers may also find some success running the ball. The Lions have surrendered a league-second-worst 5.4 YPC over the previous four weeks. James Starks and Alex Green both stink, but they should be able to get enough on the ground so that Rodgers doesn’t have to do everything on his own.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions aren’t the only ones with injuries on defense. Charles Woodson is out for a while. Linebacker D.J. Smith was recently placed on injured reserve. And most significantly, Clay Matthews is likely out with a hamstring.

Without Matthews, the Packers won’t have a prayer of placing pressure on Matthew Stafford, who can be erratic at times. Stafford has these occasional funky throws that get intercepted, and he’s developed a habit of piling up most of his stats in garbage time. If he’s not rattled, however, he’ll be able to locate Calvin Johnson downfield consistently.

Green Bay will at least clamp down on Mikel Leshoure; the team has restricted its previous four opponents to 3.7 YPC. Stafford will have to pretty much do everything on his own.

RECAP: I love the Packers because they’ve had two weeks to prepare for the Lions. They’ve had Detroit’s number anyway, but Mike McCarthy, who is 6-0 against the spread with a week off, will have an even better game plan against the Lions than usual. The only thing preventing me from making this a four- or even a five-unit selection is that the public is pounding the road favorite.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still love the Packers.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Lions.

No surprise about this.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 84% (86,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

History: Packers have won 12 of the last 13 meetings.

Aaron Rodgers is 37-21 ATS since 2009.

Mike McCarthy is 6-0 ATS coming off a bye.

Lions are 1-6 ATS before their Thanksgiving game since 2005.

Opening Line: Packers -3.

Opening Total: 51.

Weather: .

Week 11 NFL Pick: Packers 38, Lions 27
Packers -3 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Over 52 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Packers 24, Lions 20

Arizona Cardinals (4-5) at Atlanta Falcons (8-1)
Line: Falcons by 9.5. Total: 44.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Falcons -9.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 10): Falcons -12.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 10): Falcons -11.5.
Sunday, Nov. 18, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 11 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Falcons.

I half-joked last week about Bill Simmons and ESPN’s Greg Garber copying me when they wrote and/or said something very similar to what I’ve written on this Web site. I wasn’t totally serious about it, but I am about this instance of someone copying me that I discussed in Jerks of the Week:

If you’re Facebook friends with me, you know exactly what this is about. If not, our own Charlie Campbell broke a story about Jon Gruden coming back to coaching. We posted this at 2:40 Thursday morning, as you can see by this tweet:

When I made the arduous 10-second walk to my office the following morning, I quickly discovered that NFL.com and several radio stations, including the two local Philadelphia ones, picked this story up. Pretty cool, I thought. I was hoping that ProFootballTalk.com and Rotoworld.com would have linked to us as well, but they didn’t mention anything. Oh well. They either didn’t hear about it or deem it worthy enough to write about. I got dressed and walked to Bottom Dollar to pick up some essential food items like milk, orange juice and Cocoa Pebbles.

I came back to my house about 20 minutes later. I reloaded my computer and began working on Jerks of the Week when I received a text from a friend who told me that ProFootballTalk.com finally mentioned the Gruden story – except that they gave credit to someone else.

Apparently, Howard Eskin of WIP and FOX 29 broke the story himself 11 hours later, as seen here:

Here’s what ProFootballTalk.com’s page look like:

This really pissed me off. I mean, I figured ProFootballTalk didn’t see it from me, and it’s my fault for not e-mailing them about it beforehand, but my anger focused on Eskin. Did he really just hijack our story like that? It’s ridiculous. Charlie put a lot of work into breaking it, so it was unfair that he wasn’t getting the proper credit for it. Imagine if you worked hard on something and then someone else reaped the rewards. How would you feel?

Now, I won’t dismiss the possibility that Eskin came across this story on his own, but how would he possibly avoid listening to either of the two Philadelphia sports-talk stations – one of which he works for – or seeing the story on NFL.com for 11 hours? Perhaps his “sources” were WalterFootball.com.

I called my lawyer to see if anything could be done about this. I also contacted a highly trafficked journalism ethics Web site. I then e-mailed my college journalism professors, and I even spoke with a prominent Philadelphia sports analyst via e-mail, asking him for advice, and he had this to say about Eskin:

So, that’s essentially what I’m doing here. I considered trolling Eskin relentlessly – perhaps tweeting at him and congratulating him for breaking every single major story in every sport – but ProFootballTalk.com and Rotoworld.com have now both given Charlie the proper credit, so I’m not nearly as pissed as I was on Thursday and Friday.

I still may troll Eskin though. It sounds like fun. And maybe he’ll go to another Web site for his “sources” next time.

Anyway, I wrote that in Jerks of the Week. I’m thinking about ways to troll Eskin, and I’m open to suggestions. I’m thinking about creating real-sounding fake stories like “Andy Reid adopts Chinese children” and tweeting, “@Howardeskin reporting Andy Reid adopts 5 Chinese children so he can get a discount at the local Chinese restaurant.” Hey, that definitely sounds like something Reid would pull.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: Once upon a time, back in September, the Cardinals had a defensive unit ranked in the top 10 in terms of stopping the run. Unfortunately, disaster struck, and stud lineman Darnell Dockett suffered a hamstring injury. Dockett hardly missed any time, but he wasn’t even close to 100 percent because he was playing through it. The wise move would have been to sit out and heal the malady, but player arrogance interfered with logic yet again, causing the injury to fester.

I’d say the bye week probably helped. Dockett should be completely healthy now. Of course, it may not even matter because the Falcons can’t run the ball anyway. Michael Turner pathetically rushed for 15 yards on 13 carries at New Orleans, which makes you wonder what the coaching staff is thinking. Jacquizz Rodgers should have more touches going forward, but that was fairly evident months ago.

The Falcons can still score because of Matt Ryan and his arsenal of weapons. I don’t see the Cardinals having the personnel to contain Julio Jones, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez, though they have a good enough of a pass rush (27 sacks) to at least force some punts. Atlanta will move the chains successfully for most of the afternoon, but the offense will likely once again falter in the red zone. The Falcons have sputtered recently deep in opposing territory, and the Cardinals are actually No. 9 in red-zone defense this year.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: The Falcons have defensive line issues of their own. They cut end Ray Edwards earlier this week because he was overpaid and underperforming. Atlanta as a whole hasn’t been good at pressuring the quarterback this year. John Abraham is the only one who has consistently done so, but he seems to have worn down in the past couple of weeks.

This is great news for the Cardinals because they can’t block. They’ve turned to seventh-round rookie Nate Potter to protect John Skelton’s blind side. That makes it sound like Arizona has no chance, but Potter was at least competent in his only action against the Packers. Besides, the man he’s replacing, D’Anthony Batiste, was a complete abomination. Seriously, I’ve been watching football for a long time, and I don’t think I’ve ever seen a worse tackle than Batiste. How is it possible to surrender 12 sacks in just eight starts?

Potter is an upgrade by default, but it won’t matter because Skelton will constantly be pressured, causing him to toss at least one interception to the Falcons because that’s what he always does. He’ll struggle early, but once his team is behind, he’ll generate some scoring drives and put his team in position for a backdoor cover.

RECAP: I don’t get why this spread is just -9.5. Think about it – the Falcons were -2 at the Saints last week, which would translate to -8 at Atlanta (three points to neutral; three points to home). This means that the Saints are just 1.5 points better than the Cardinals, which doesn’t seem right.

I wish we were getting more points so I could bet on Arizona. The Falcons have three divisional matchups and then the Giants after this contest. It’s essentially meaningless for them, and the Cardinals, who often find some way to squeak inside the number as big underdogs, are in a must-win situation.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This is too close to call for me. It’s basically a coin flip.

The Psychology. Edge: Cardinals.

Major breather alert for the Falcons – they have three divisional matchups and then the Giants after this contest.

The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.

I’m surprised there’s not even more action on the Falcons.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 74% (59,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Falcons.

Matt Ryan is 22-11 ATS at home.

Mike Smith is 6-0 ATS after a loss as a favorite.

Mike Smith is 16-5 ATS after a loss.

Opening Line: Falcons -10.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: .

Week 11 NFL Pick: Falcons 26, Cardinals 20
Cardinals +9.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 44 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Falcons 23, Cardinals 19

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-4) at Carolina Panthers (2-7)
Line: Pick. Total: 48.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Panthers -1.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 10): Panthers -1.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 10): Buccaneers -1.
Sunday, Nov. 18, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 11 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Buccaneers.

The most illiterate sports bettor in the world is a man named the Real John Moss. He loves to e-mail me and talk to me on G-chat. He didn’t update his Web site, https://sites.google.com/site/realjohnmossfootball/ this past week, but I was able to find an e-mail from him that he sent in September:

The Real John Moss is sleeping with a Hutu and a Tutsi? I was able to hack into his computer and obtain pictures of these girls:

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: I don’t know what Greg Schiano did during his bye week, but perhaps teams should hire him as a consultant when he leaves Tampa Bay in the distant future. Josh Freeman has thrown 13 touchdowns and just one interception in the five games since the week off. He’s on fire, so how can the Panthers possibly stop him?

Well, there are a couple of things. First, the Panthers can put tons of pressure on him. They have 11 sacks in their previous three games – two of which were against Peyton Manning and the elusive Robert Griffin – as defensive ends Charles Johnson and Greg Hardy have been phenomenal. Also, Carolina has done a terrific job of clamping down against the run ever since Luke Kuechly has moved into the middle linebacker position. With Doug Martin stymied, Freeman will have to do everything by himself amid a fierce pass rush.

Having said that, the Buccaneers should still have success scoring points. Carolina’s Chris Gamble-less secondary is an abomination, so Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams should be able to get open all afternoon.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Speaking of awful secondaries, the Buccaneers traded away Aqib Talib a couple of weeks ago, so they don’t have the personnel to cover anyone. Danario Alexander looked like an All-Pro wideout against them last week, for crying out loud.

Cam Newton struggled to do anything versus Denver last week, but that’s because Champ Bailey completely eliminated Steve Smith, holding him to just one catch. The veteran wideout will be able to rebound, so Newton will sustain drives. It’ll help that unlike the Broncos, the Buccaneers don’t have a consistent pass rush; they’ve recorded just 15 sacks on the year, which makes them tied with the lowly Chiefs for 26th in that department.

As with Tampa Bay, the Panthers won’t be able to run the football unless the quarterback is doing it. Newton will likely lead the team in rushing yardage, as Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams are overrated players running behind a pedestrian offensive line. The Buccaneers are fourth versus the rush anyway (3.69 YPC).

RECAP: The Panthers seem like a nice bet this week. The Buccaneers, who don’t really seem worthy of being road favorites just yet, have to deal with the Falcons and Broncos following this “easy” contest. I like fading the public, and I also like betting on home underdogs coming off losses as home underdogs.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m thinking about moving this to three units, as there is so much betting action on the visitor. I may make the move Sunday morning if this spread moves in Tampa’s direction.

FINAL THOUGHTS II: Ugh, so much for the spread moving up. It’s now a pick in most places or Panthers -1 on Pinnacle. I liked getting Carolina as an underdog, but that’s not the case anymore. I’m dropping this to one unit.

The Psychology. Edge: Panthers.

I don’t know if the Buccaneers will look past a divisional foe, but they might because they have the Falcons and Broncos after this.

The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.

All the Buccaneers need to do is win by two? Easy money!

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 79% (63,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Buccaneers have won 3 the last 5 meetings.

Buccaneers are 9-16 ATS off back-to-back wins since 2003.

Buccaneers are 3-7 ATS as road favorites since 2004.

Panthers are 30-45 ATS at home since 2003.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -1.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: .

Week 11 NFL Pick: Panthers 27, Buccaneers 24
Panthers +1 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Over 48.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Buccaneers 27, Panthers 21

Cleveland Browns (2-7) at Dallas Cowboys (4-5)
Line: Cowboys by 7.5. Total: 43.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -7.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 10): Cowboys -7.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 10): Cowboys -9.
Sunday, Nov. 18, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 11 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Cowboys.

Random College Football Notes:

1. I tweeted (@walterfootball) this after Texas A&M’s upset over Alabama: “What a shame we don’t have an 8-team playoff. Texas A&M would make a hell of a 6 or 7 seed.”

Ugh. Seriously, why can’t we have a playoff now? Why do we have to wait two years for a four-team playoff when eight teams would be so much better? College football could be so great, but the idiots in charge either drag their feet or don’t listen to reason.

2. Oh, and I guess Alabama beating the Jaguars is out of the question now. One of the first tweets about this that I saw came from @schultz_travis:

Remember when ppl talked about Alabama being able to beat multiple NFL teams? Yeahh \

Meanwhile, @shawnintheflesh had something more amusing to say:

CAN TEXAS A&M BEAT THE JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS??????

Let the debate begin!

3. Of course, I have to mention something about the Penn State loss. The Nittany Lion player was clearly in the end zone. There’s no doubt about that. It should be clear that the officials, who were still clearly butt hurt (perhaps literally) about the whole Jerry Sandusky scandal, ruled it as a non-touchdown because they hate Penn State and wanted the team to lose.

I never understood the hatred for this particular Penn State team. When I gave the Nittany Lions out as one of my College Football Picks several weeks ago, someone commented, “LMAO! Still rooting for the locker slamming child rapist eh Walt? Ohio St is going to mop the floor with these pedos. They shouldve shut that hellhole down.”

Right, because the players and coaches on this team had so much to do with Sandusky and his child raping. I mean, guys like Bill O’Brien and Michael Mauti actually kidnapped those kids and took them to Sandusky’s house, right? Give me a break.

Speaking of which, watch out for our Penn State Sex Scandal Mafia game after this season in our Mafia section.

DALLAS OFFENSE: The Cowboys crack me up sometimes. Following a win over the Eagles, Tony Romo told the media that Dez Bryant has “come 180 degrees.” Umm… based on what? A dropped touchdown that a senile Walt Coleman ruled complete? I have zero faith in Bryant. Zero. He’s going to continue to drop passes, run incorrect routes and do other stupid things – because he’s a member of the Cowboys, and that’s just what the Cowboys do.

I don’t see Bryant doing much because of Joe Haden, so Tony Romo will have to look elsewhere to move the chains. Miles Austin-Jones and Jason Witten are quality options, so the Cowboys will have success in terms of keeping drives alive. What happens in the red zone, however, is a different story. They’re one of the worst teams in the NFL when it comes to converting touchdowns in that area.

Part of the problem is that the Cowboys don’t run the ball well. Felix Jones looked good against Philadelphia, but that’s because the Eagles can’t tackle. The Browns have a solid ground defense that has limited its previous four opponents to a respectable 4.1 YPC (Eagles are at 4.7), thanks to the defense actually being healthy, which was hardly the case earlier in the season.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: While the Browns have gotten healthy on defense, the opposite has occurred for Dallas lately. Sean Lee is out for the year. Linebacker Dan Connor, who was supposed to replace Lee, has been out. Jay Ratliff and Brandon Carr are laboring through injuries. Rotational lineman Kenyon Coleman is also unavailable. The Cowboys used to be pretty forceful against the run, but all of these injuries have sapped their effectiveness in that area. As a consequence, they’ve given up 4.4 YPC the past two weeks.

Trent Richardson has to love the sound of that. Richardson has gotten past an injury-plagued slow start and is coming off back-to-back 100-yard rushing performances. He could easily make it three in a row, which will be a huge help to Brandon Weeden, who has been inconsistent thus far. Weeden should have some success though, as the Cowboys are known to bust some coverages from time to time.

Like Dallas, the Browns won’t have much success in the red zone once they get there. They happen to be even worse than Dallas in that regard, so they’re fortunate that Phil Dawson hasn’t missed all year. As long as Dawson continues to be reliable, Cleveland should be able to hang around.

RECAP: The Browns are my favorite play of the week. Here’s why:

1. The Cowboys are coming off an emotional victory against one of their most hated rivals. They won’t be focused, especially with two divisional games coming up, including one in just four days.

2. Speaking of which, favorites are just 1-9 against the spread prior to Thursday games this year. You’d think the Cowboys would be used to this because they play on Thanksgiving every year, but Romo has covered only once the weekend before Thanksgiving when laying points (1-3 against the spread).

3. Oh, and laying points reminds me – Dallas is terrible at home as a favorite; the team is 7-14 ATS as a home favorite in Cowboys Stadium (excluding Thanksgiving).

4. The Browns, who will be focused coming off a bye, have been a reliable team in terms of beating the spread as big underdogs. They failed to do so just once – that bogus loss against the Giants in which they blew a huge lead.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still love the Browns.

The Psychology. Edge: Browns.

The Cowboys are coming off a big win and have to battle the Redskins (on a short week) and Eagles after this.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 57% (75,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Browns.

New Thursday Schedule: Favorites are 1-9 ATS prior to Thursday night games this year.

Cowboys are 13-7 ATS after playing the Eagles since 2000.

Cowboys are 7-14 ATS as home favorites in Cowboys Stadium (excluding Thanksgiving).

Opening Line: Cowboys -8.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: .

Week 11 NFL Pick: Cowboys 20, Browns 19
Browns +7.5 (4 Units) — Correct; +$400
Under 43.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Cowboys 23, Browns 20

New York Jets (3-6) at St. Louis Rams (3-5-1)
Line: Rams by 3.5. Total: 39.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Rams -2.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 10): Rams -2.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 10): Rams -3.
Sunday, Nov. 18, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 11 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Rams.

If you’ve been reading this Web site for a while, you know that I love to respond to mess with spammers. It’s fun writing material, and besides, if they’re busy with me, they’re not conning someone else – so I consider myself a good samaritan for doing this.

I currently have a long entry with this woman Mulyana running. It’s taking up too much space, so I’ve given it its own page. Click here for the Steve Urkel Spam Mail.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The report about the anonymous Jet players calling Tim Tebow “terrible” amuses me. It amuses me because the Jets are a bunch of arrogant idiots who have no concept of winning. Tebow is not “terrible” in the slightest; in fact, he’s the best player the Jets have on offense (excluding a couple of the linemen) – and they’re not even utilizing him! And people wonder why they’re 3-6.

If the Jets want to continue to lose, they can keep trotting out the incredibly inept Mark Sanchez. I’m sure he’ll have success against the Rams with his awesome accuracy and poise in the pocket. The Rams only have one of the premier pass rushes in the NFL, so Sanchez can use his terrific scrambling ability to avoid Chris Long and Robert Quinn. And Cortland Finnegan taking away one side of the field? Not an issue whatsoever.

Oh, and let’s not forget about Shonn Greene. He’s such a dynamic runner even though he can’t move laterally. That’s overrated anyway. Backs who can only go north and south are highly coveted by NFL front offices for a reason. The Rams, 15th in the NFL in rushing (4.23 YPC), have no shot of slowing Greene down.

ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: OK, enough Sarcastaball for today. Unlike the Jets, the Rams should be able to move the chains consistently. Steven Jackson ran like a man possessed against the 49ers, and if he brings the same energy to this contest, he’ll easily trample New York’s No. 25 rush defense (4.45 YPC). Jackson, who received most of the workload last week, is playing for a new contract – his final big one – so there’s no reason to think that he’ll slow down.

Jackson’s ability to pick up big chunks of yardage will once again be a huge help for Sam Bradford, who looked like a different quarterback with Danny Amendola back in the lineup. Amendola is one of the best slot receivers in the NFL, and the 49ers had no answer for him. It’ll be interesting to see if the Jets use Antonio Cromartie to cover him.

The Rams will move the ball into the red zone quite frequently in this contest, but the real intrigue is what will happen once they get there. They’ve struggled deep in opposing territory all year, but there is some hope because the Jets’ red-zone defense is an atrocious 29th in the NFL. Plus, New York doesn’t have a consistent pass rush to rattle Bradford.

RECAP: Despite everything negative I said about the Jets, I like them for a couple of units because they’re in a good spot. They’ve been blown out twice in a row, and teams very rarely have that happen a third time. Also, road underdogs tend to cover at a 67-percent clip following a loss on the road.

As for the Rams, I don’t like them in the role of a favorite. This is the first time they’re laying points all year, so it’s a completely different dynamic than what they’re used to. Also, St. Louis has two divisional battles coming up after this contest, so there could be a bit of a look-ahead situation.

Oh, and last thing – I researched how teams fare coming off ties. They’re 3-7 against the spread in the past 23 years following a draw – 2-6 ATS if it’s a non-divisional matchup.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I considered moving this to three units, but I don’t like how the Jets have three days of rest before playing the Patriots.

The Psychology. Edge: Jets.

The Jets have the Patriots in four days, but this is a must-win. The Rams, meanwhile, have two divisional matchups after this contest.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.

No surprise that most people don’t want any part of the Jets.

Percentage of money on St. Louis: 74% (46,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Rams -3.

Opening Total: 38.

Weather: Dome.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Rams 24, Jets 23
Jets +3.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Over 39 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Jets 27, Rams 13

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8) at Houston Texans (8-1)
Line: Texans by 15. Total: 41.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Texans -14.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 10): Texans -13.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 10): Texans -14.5.
Sunday, Nov. 18, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 11 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Texans.

THE ADVENTURES OF TOM BRADY’S HAIRCUTS

Remember when Tom Brady used to be the most clutch quarterback in the NFL? He had that epic drive against the Rams in the Super Bowl. He then engineered numerous other fourth-quarter comebacks, including one to defeat the Panthers two years later to claim his second Lombardi trophy. After he earned his third, there was a wide-spread belief that he would pass both Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw and eventually earn five or more total rings.

Well, Brady’s been stuck on three. He’s no longer clutch; in fact, he often melts down in the fourth quarters of big matchups. He seems to really care about some games – especially those involving Tim Tebow – but then he’s so lackadaisical in others.

So, what happened? The obvious answer is his wife. But more specifically, it’s the haircuts that his wife forces him into getting. It’s unknown to the media, but Brady’s haircuts are much more than just silly fashion statements; each haircut gives Brady a new persona.

For instance, the following exchange took place yesterday during film session.

Matt Patricia: Hey defense, we have a tough matchup against Andrew Luck this week. Let’s watch some film on him.

Jerod Mayo: We don’t need to watch film on Andrew Luck. He’s just a rookie and he sucks anyway! We’ll kick his a**!

Matt Patricia: Now, now, calm down, yes Andrew Luck is just a mere rookie but…

Tom Brady: Did someone just say that Andrew Luck is a mere rookie?

Jerod Mayo: Oh no…

Matt Patricia: Tom, what are you doing here? This is a defensive players’ meeting. Now, take your crappy haircut and get out of here.

Tom Brady: Now this is where you’re wrong, Matt and Jerod. I’ve been scouting players for more than three decades, and Andrew Luck is the best pure passer I’ve seen in my career.

Matt Patricia: Better than yourself?

Tom Brady: I had Tom Brady as a third-round prospect. Higher than where he went in the 2000 NFL Draft, but not high enough. Everyone makes mistakes, Todd. But I will put my neck on the line and say that Andrew Luck will have a Hall of Fame career.

Jerod Mayo: Todd? Who’s Todd?

Tom Brady: Andrew Luck comes from a pro-style offense at Stanford. Was coached by Jim Harbaugh from two years. Remember that Jim Harbaugh was once a quarterback in the National Football League. Andrew Luck already has experience, and he’s coming into the league with all of the tools to be a perennial Pro Bowler.

Matt Patricia: Ugh. You think you’re Mel Kiper, don’t you? I should have known, with that goofy haircut.

Tom Brady: He measured in at 6-4, 234 at the Combine, Todd. Ran a 4.67 40. I had him running in the 4.7s. He ran in the 4.67. Not a huge difference, but you can see that the athleticism is there. He had a 36-inch vertical, once again showing off his athleticism, Todd.

Matt Patricia: Todd McShay’s not here. Go away, Tom.

Tom Brady: Todd, you just don’t understand the value of the quarterback position. In 2009, I said that Matthew Stafford had to be the first-overall pick. You said either Jason Smith or Aaron Curry. The quarterback position has so much value in the National Football League, Todd.

Matt Patricia: Hey guys, I’ll give $100 to the first person who sneaks into Tom’s house and shaves off his hair in his sleep.

Jerod Mayo: Shave off his hair for $100? I’ll do it for free, Coach!

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Ugh. How are the Jaguars going to score? Blaine Gabbert is a train wreck. He was abysmal in the previous matchup against Houston, going 7-of-19 for 53 yards and a touchdown, but even those pedestrian stats were inflated because he was just 3-of-10 for seven yards around halftime. In the third quarter, he had as many pass attempts (13) and passing yards. Can you say, sunk cost?

The Texans no longer have Brian Cushing in the middle of their defense, but that is offset by the loss of Maurice Jones-Drew. Rashad Jennings has proven to be a terrible runner, so you really have to wonder how Jacksonville will move the chains in this contest. I’d give you more insight about this side of the football, but it’s a complete mismatch.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: The Jaguars, meanwhile, won’t be able to stop the rush. They’re ranked 20th in that department (4.4 YPC) and have given up 278 yards on the ground in the past two weeks. In fact, Houston trampled them for a ridiculous 219 rushing yards back in Week 2.

Matt Schaub operates best when he can utilize his patented play-action bootlegs. He’ll be working that to death in this matchup, as the Jaguars will have to put extra defenders in the box to stop Arian Foster.

Schaub will be able to convert all of his short-yardage situations. He should also be effective in the rare occasions in which he has to move the chains in long yardage. The Jaguars have a banged-up secondary that may miss top cover safety Dwight Lowery again. Cornerback Rashean Mathis is also hurt. Meanwhile, Jacksonville has the fewest sacks in the NFL (10), so Schaub will have a clean pocket the entire afternoon.

RECAP: I think this is way too many points, especially for a divisional matchup. Also, the Texans have to worry about playing in just four days; favorites are just 1-9 against the spread prior to Thursday games.

Having said that, I can’t bring myself to bet more than a unit on Gabbert against one of the NFL’s elite teams.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I think the Jaguars are the right side, but there’s no way in hell I’m betting more than one unit on them.

The Psychology. Edge: Jaguars.

The Texans play in four days. They may overlook the pathetic Jaguars.

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.
Close to equal action.

Percentage of money on Houston: 62% (16,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jaguars.

History: Texans have won the last 4 meetings.

New Thursday Schedule: Favorites are 1-7 ATS prior to Thursday games this year.

Opening Line: Texans -15.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Dome.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Texans 27, Jaguars 13
Jaguars +15 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 41 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Texans 43, Jaguars 37

Cincinnati Bengals (4-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-8)
Line: Bengals by 3. Total: 43.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Bengals -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 10): Bengals -2.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 10): Bengals -3.
Sunday, Nov. 18, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 11 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Bengals.

WalterFootball.com Contest Updates:

Survivor: Get your pick in for the WalterFootball.com 2012 NFL Survivor Pool. There are 88 people remaining. Fifteen were knocked out because the 49ers tied. You have to pick a winner each week, so ties are losses.

Picking Contest: We’re also running an NFL Picking Contest. It’s free entry, and the winner gets $75 each month.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: I have to think that Romeo Crennel lost some credibility with his team. Crennel threatened to bench the first player who committed a turnover Monday night. The Chiefs were clean in that regard until overtime when Matt Cassel threw a horrible interception. Despite this, Crennel named Cassel the starter for this contest. Shouldn’t he be benched? If Dexter McCluster or Peyton Hillis fumbled in the same situation, would they be playing in this game? I think not.

Cassel is the best quarterbacking option in terms of winning this game, but you have to wonder if Kansas City will start giving the ball away again now that Crennel’s threat is seen as empty. The Bengals are tied for 12th in take-aways this season, so they’ll be able to capitalize on any mistakes the Chiefs make throughout this contest.

The Bengals have a soft run defense, ranked 27th in the NFL (4.56 YPC). Their secondary can also be picked up apart because of their dubious safety situation. This sounds good for the Chiefs, but will Jamaal Charles hang on to the football? Will Dwayne Bowe stop dropping passes? Will replacement center Ryan Lilja get every snap off? This is what you’ll be wondering if you pick Kansas City to cover.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The Chiefs also match up pretty well with the Bengals on this side of the ball. Cincinnati scores primarily by having Andy Dalton airing it out to A.J. Green. Kansas City, however, has one of the elite cornerbacks in the NFL in Brandon Flowers, who just shut down Mike Wallace. Green is a better receiver who can’t be stopped, but Flowers will do his best to contain him.

The weakness of the Chiefs’ defense happens to be stopping the run, though they just limited the Steelers to only 81 rushing yards on 28 carries. Cincinnati won’t be able to take advantage of this because BenJarvus Green-Ellis is terrible. The Law Firm is averaging just 3.4 yards per carry this season. The Bengals would bench him, but they don’t have anyone else to turn to.

Dalton will have to do everything on his own, which will prove to be difficult with Tamba Hali and Justin Houston breathing down his neck in long-yardage situations. Dalton will continue to force it to Green, but he’ll have far less success because Flowers will be draped all over his preferred wideout. Dalton will, however, have success throwing the ball to Jermaine Gresham, Mohamed Sanu and Andrew Hawkins; with the Chiefs’ recent release of Stanford Routt, they have very little depth in the secondary.

RECAP: The Bengals are coming off a big victory against the defending champs, but that’s not a good thing for this matchup, as underdogs who beat the reigning Super Bowl winners often struggle the following week. The Bengals are also typically sluggish when favored, especially when coming off a victory.

There are a couple of other reasons I like the Chiefs. The public is pounding Cincinnati. Also, the Bengals are playing on the road after three straight home games, which is typically a bad situation.

I’m not going to bet the Chiefs though. Although they’re underdogs, there’s always the possibility that they could be flat following their Monday night loss to the Steelers, especially considering that it was in overtime. Also, a potential distraction is the “Black Out” that @SaveOurChiefs and the fans are orchestrating. That’s right – if you’re going to this game, make sure you wear black to let ownership know how you feel about the current regime.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m switching my pick to the Bengals. I think coming off that overtime loss is really going to hurt the Chiefs.

FINAL THOUGHTS II: I feel like a teenage girl deciding what to wear. I’m going back to the Chiefs. Still zero units. Meh.

The Psychology. Edge: Bengals.

The Chiefs are underdogs, but they still could be reeling from that Monday night loss.

The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.

All the Bengals need to do is win by a field goal? Easy money.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 84% (45,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

KO’ing the Champ: Teams coming off victories against defending Super Bowl champions are 7-15 ATS on the road.

Bengals are 8-26 ATS as a favorite since 2007.

Bengals are 4-14 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 or more since 2007. ???

Marvin Lewis is 3-8 ATS as a favorite coming off a SU win as an underdog.

Chiefs are 16-28 ATS at home since 2007.

Opening Line: Bengals -3.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: .

Week 11 NFL Pick: Bengals 24, Chiefs 23
Chiefs +3 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 43.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Bengals 28, Chiefs 6

Week 11 NFL Picks – Late Games
Saints at Raiders, Colts at Patriots, Chargers at Broncos, Ravens at Steelers, Bears at 49ers

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 11 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Nov. 20

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

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2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)