NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 4, 2013

NFL Picks (Preseason 2013): 10-6 (+$720)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2013): 4-11-1 (-$1,290)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2013): 6-10 (+$130)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2013): 9-6-1 (+$20)

NFL Picks (2013): 29-33-1 (-$420)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Sept. 30, 4:20 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 4 NFL Picks – Early Games

New York Jets (2-1) at Tennessee Titans (2-1)
Line: Titans by 3.5. Total: 41.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Titans -5.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 3): Titans -4.
Sunday, Sept. 29, 4:05 ET
Discuss Week 4 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Titans.

This summer, I ran a Mafia game on the Web site called Penn State Sex Scandal Mafia. You can click the link to read the introduction and see the list of players. I’ll add to this page throughout the season, listing roles and talking about funny things that happened during the game.

Why am I doing this? Well, I wanted to post this on the main section of this Web site so that the mainstream media people who have sand in their vages will pick up on this and complain that I’m being insensitive.

Oh, and by the way, we have other Mafia games going on right now in the Mafia Forum. Mafia is a blast, so come and join the fun.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Stats can be deceiving sometimes. Geno Smith went 16-of-29 for 331 yards and two touchdowns against the Bills this past Sunday. While he did have a few great downfield throws, some of his passes were all over the place. He was picked off twice, but could’ve easily tossed 4-5 interceptions. He simply had the luxury of torching a Buffalo defense missing Mario Williams, Marcell Dareus, Jairus Byrd, Stephon Gilmore and Leodis McKelvin. With Gilmore and McKelvin out, Justin Rogers, perhaps the worst cornerback the NFL has ever seen, was forced onto the field.

Smith did a good job of taking advantage of this, so I don’t want to take much away from him. However, I’d like to see him sustain similar success against tougher defenses. He was terrible in a Week 2 loss at New England, and he could be in for a similar outing versus a much-improved Tennessee defense.

The Titans currently rank 10th against the pass (6.41 YPA) thanks to nine sacks on the year, which fittingly has them tied for ninth in that category. Cornerbacks Jason McCourty and Alterraun Verner have played well, so Santonio Holmes and Stephen Hill won’t have as much luck getting open this week. The Jets will have to rely on Bilal Powell again, who should have some success against Tennesee’s 26th-ranked ground defense. The Titan linebackers have underachieved thus far this season.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Like the Jets, the Titans have to hope their inconsistent quarterback has a positive outing. Jake Locker was extremely sharp versus San Diego, going 23-of-37 for 299 yards and a touchdown to go along with 68 rushing yards and a second score. However, he did this against a San Diego defense with no talent outside of Eric Weddle in its secondary. As a consequence, the Chargers are 31st versus aerial attacks (9.09 YPA) despite not battling any elite passers yet. The Jets, on the other hand, are second (5.7 YPA) while having already played Tom Brady.

Locker is going to find it extremely difficult to match last week’s numbers, especially considering that New York brings a decent pass rush to the table. Thanks mostly to the dominant Muhammad Wilkerson, the Jets are tied for third with 12 sacks. That number is a bit skewed, given that they brought down E.J. Manuel eight times this past week, but the team should still be able to rattle Locker.

Establishing Chris Johnson would certainly help Locker’s cause, but that will prove to be difficult; the Jets currently rank fifth against the run (3.08 YPC). A pair of young talents – Sheldon Richardson and Snacks Harrison – have been prolific in this regard. It’ll be interesting to see how they match up against Tennessee’s fierce, run-blocking front.

RECAP: I’m pretty frustrated by this spread. I was hoping Tennessee would be around -6 so I could make a big play on the Jets. The Titans, whom I don’t like in the role of a favorite, are in a tough spot because they’re coming off an emotional, final-second win over the Chargers.

Unfortunately, whatever spread value we had has been destroyed by the sharps, who jumped all over Jets +5 or +5.5 Sunday night. It has since dropped to +3.5. I still feel like New York is the right side, but I’m not going to make a big play here because we’re not getting a very good number.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Here’s another game where we’re not getting enough value with the road underdog in a good spot. I’m sticking with one unit on the Jets.

The Psychology. Edge: Jets.

The Titans pulled off an emotional, last-second victory against the Chargers.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on New York: 51% (32,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jets.

Mike Munchak is 4-9 ATS playing a team with a winning record.

Mike Munchak is 4-7 ATS as a favorite.

Opening Line: Titans -5.

Opening Total: 38.5.

Weather: .

Week 4 NFL Pick: Titans 17, Jets 16
Jets +3.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Under 41 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Titans 38, Jets 13

Dallas Cowboys (2-1) at San Diego Chargers (1-2)
Line: Cowboys by 2. Total: 46.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Chargers -1.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 3): Chargers -1.5.
Sunday, Sept. 29, 4:25 ET
Discuss Week 4 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Cowboys.

If you haven’t made your Week 4 selection in the WalterFootball.com 2013 NFL Survivor Pool, make sure you do so. There are 1,352 players still remaining out of the original 2,580. Those who took the Chiefs, Packers and Seahawks are in the lead because of margin of victory. The 198 people who didn’t listen to my Survivor Picks Advice and chose the Vikings were knocked out.

To see a report of how many teams are being picked for survivor this week, click here.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: The Chargers have actually been the team that has knocked out the most players in survivor because of their upset victory over the Eagles in Week 2. Philip Rivers has played better than expected this season, thanks to an improved offensive line, a healthy Antonio Gates and Ken Whisenhunt’s presence on the sidelines.

Unfortunately for Rivers, his blocking won’t be as good this week. Both King Dunlap and Chad Rinehart exited last Sunday’s contest with injuries, and they’re both currently listed as doubtful. Rookie right tackle D.J. Fluker is questionable. Not having at least two of these linemen could be disastrous for Rivers, especially considering that the Cowboys have more sacks (13) than anyone except the Chiefs this season.

Dallas’ back seven has performed extremely well as a consequence. Safety Barry Church in particular has been a revelation. With limited time in the pocket, Rivers won’t be able to buy time enough for his middling receivers to get open. Remember that he’s still missing Maclom Floyd, so outside of Gates, Eddie Royal is pretty much his only viable downfield option. Danny Woodhead can be used as a pass-catcher out of the backfield, but the sure-tackling Cowboys will be able to limit him.

DALLAS OFFENSE: I discussed San Diego’s pathetic defense in the previous game capsule. To summarize, the secondary, outside of Eric Weddle, is a disgrace. I suppose Derek Cox isn’t too bad – he’ll be injured soon though – but it’s a sad state of affairs when a team has to list Johnny Patrick as a starter. The Saints, who had a terrible pass defense last season, cut Patrick back in February. How is he starting for anyone at this point?

Tony Romo should have a field day throwing against these bums. He’ll have plenty of time to locate Dez Bryant, Miles Austin-Jones and Jason Witten, as San Diego has mustered only five sacks on the season thus far. That’s pretty pathetic.

The Chargers are better at defending the run, but only by default. DeMarco Murray, who bulldozed the equally anemic Rams, should once again be able to eclipse the century mark.

RECAP: There is some spread value with the Chargers. My calculated line is San Diego -1.5 (this game means nothing for Dallas). The Las Vegas Hilton advance number (i.e. the spread they posted last week) was also -1.5. So, why’d it jump to +2? Dallas did just blow a team out, but the Rams stink!

Having said that, I’m very hesitant to bet the home dog for three reasons: 1) I’m 0-3 picking Dallas games this year. 2) San Diego could have three starting linemen on the sidelines. 3) The Chargers always find some way to blow a potential victory. If they were +3.5, I’d gladly bet them because they could lead the entire way and ultimately lose by a field goal. However, I’m just too scarred from everything that happened last year (4th-and-29, UGH!) as well as this past Sunday’s result. I’m staying off this game for the sake of my sanity.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Sharp money is on the Chargers. I’m sure San Diego will lead throughout and find some way to lose at the end. This would be a much bigger play if I could get +3.

The Psychology. Edge: Chargers.

This non-conference tilt has more meaning for San Diego.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 58% (35,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Cowboys -2.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: .

Week 4 NFL Pick: Cowboys 28, Chargers 27
Chargers +2 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 46.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Chargers 30, Cowboys 21

Washington Redskins (0-3) at Oakland Raiders (1-2)
Line: Redskins by 3.5. Total: 45.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Redskins -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 3): Raiders -1.
Sunday, Sept. 29, 4:25 ET
Discuss Week 4 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: None.

If you didn’t catch it, Emmitt on the Brink is back! Season 6, Episode 3 has been posted – the Browns send shockwaves through the NFL with another crazy trade!

OAKLAND OFFENSE: The Redskins were favored by 2.5 last week, per the Las Vegas Hilton advance spread. Washington lost, while Oakland didn’t look too terrible Monday night despite the 16-point defeat. Yet, the line has risen in Washington’s favor. Before getting to this game, I assumed that Terrelle Pryor’s concussion was a severe one, and that he’d be unlikely to play on a short week. However, the most recent report says that Pryor has been cleared for physical activity, which is an indication that he’ll be ready by Sunday.

Pryor’s presence on the field will be huge for Oakland. I’ve been very skeptical of him in the past, but I’m now sold that he perhaps could at least be a competent starter in the NFL. He has turned the ball over really just once through three weeks, and he’s completing 65.4 percent of his passes. He’s also a threat as a runner.

The Redskins have the worst defense in the NFL, so they have to be praying for Matt Flynn to start over Pryor. The Redskins are 30th against the rush (4.96 YPC) and dead last versus the pass (9.8 YPA). And if those numbers aren’t bad enough, think about it this way: When Pryor rolls out of the pocket and scrambles downfield, do you really think that the geriatric London Fletcher has a chance of even coming close to running him down?

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Robert Griffin has struggled immensely through two-and-a-half weeks. Something seemed to click in the second half of Sunday’s contest, however. Griffin played well toward the end and seemed to regain his confidence. As I mentioned in the Thursday night capsule on the previous page, the Redskins would’ve defeated the Lions had Griffin not committed an unforced fumble and had Aldrick Robinson not dropped a touchdown in the end zone.

Oakland’s defense is even worse than Detroit’s, so this could be the game in which Griffin finally snaps out of his funk. The Raiders will be missing two starting defensive backs – safety Tyvon Branch and cornerback Tracy Porter – so Griffin will be able to torch their skeleton-crew secondary. He’ll also scramble a bit, which he did more of this past week.

Griffin will be able to lean on Alfred Morris as well. The Raiders just surrendered 166 rushing yards to the unspectacular trio of Knowshon Moreno, Ronnie Hillman and Montee Ball. Morris is much more talented than any of those three runners, so I like his chances of approaching 150 yards on the ground.

RECAP: Both teams are about even, so I’m kind of confused why the Redskins are favored by three. I would’ve made Oakland a one-point favorite.

There’s something shady going on. Maybe Vegas knows Pryor won’t be ready, or something. Or perhaps they’re just catering to an incorrect public perception that the Redskins are much better than the Raiders. I’ll think about it and may add units later in the week. For now, this is a non-bet on the home dog.

Oh, and last thing… remember in the Bears-Lions capsule where I discussed how undefeated underdogs fare somewhat well against the spread? How about the inverse? I looked it up, and winless road favorites (0-3 or worse) are just 2-6 against the spread since 1989. It’s a very small sample size, but something to consider nonetheless.

FINAL THOUGHTS TBA: I’ll have final thoughts once Terrelle Pryor’s status is known.

PICK CHANGE: I wrote last week that I don’t like to make a late pick change, but I kind of have to given that Matt Flynn will start over Terrelle Pryor. Flynn is garbage, so Washington has to be the play.

The Psychology. Edge: Redskins.
The Redskins are desperate for a win, but the Raiders have to feel insulted that they’re underdogs to a winless squad.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.
People expect Robert Griffin to snap out of it.

Percentage of money on Washington: 62% (22,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Redskins.

Raiders are 7-27 ATS at home vs. teams with losing records.

Opening Line: Redskins -3.5.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: .

Week 4 NFL Pick: Redskins 27, Raiders 23
Redskins -3.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 43.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Redskins 24, Raiders 14

Philadelphia Eagles (1-2) at Denver Broncos (3-0)
Line: Broncos by 10. Total: 57.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Broncos -9.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 3): Broncos -13.5.
Sunday, Sept. 29, 4:25 ET
Discuss Week 4 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Broncos.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for Sept. 23, 2013 is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is the third part of the Best Buy Trilogy: Return of Soulless-Eye Lady.

DENVER OFFENSE: This segment is kind of useless. Anything written about the Broncos’ scoring attack will always sound something like this: Peyton Manning’s not the same quarterback he once was in terms of arm strength, but he’s as sharp as ever mentally… Manning has way too many talented weapons to work with… the Denver running game isn’t that good, but can produce because opposing defenses pay too much attention to Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, Eric Decker and Julius Thomas… Denver will score at least 35… the end.

The Ravens weren’t even able to contain the Broncos for half of their matchup, so how can the Eagles possibly do this? Philadelphia may have an even worse defense than the Raiders, who could barely force Denver into punts. Had it not been for two holding penalties in the first quarter, the Broncos may have posted 50 on Monday night. The Eagles don’t stand a chance on this side of the football, so they’ll have to engage Denver in a shootout…

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: …Which means things aren’t going to end well for the Eagles. There will be some big plays from this unit, as usual. The Broncos surrendered some long passes to the Raiders. They also had some issues with Terrelle Pryor scrambles, so QBDK could have some nice gains on the ground.

The problem. however, is that QBDK is a turnover machine. He was clean in the first two games because the Redskins and Chargers have two of the worst defenses in the NFL, but he gave the ball away three times against the Chiefs. This is only a sign of things to come; I expect way more turnovers from the Eagles going forward. Their offensive line was exposed by Kansas City, and I expect Denver to flood the backfield as well. It won’t be as often as the Chiefs did it, but Denver should have success on the right side, where both Lane Johnson and Todd Herremans are struggling.

I also anticipate Philadelphia’s offense working way too quickly, causing the team’s defense to wear out because it’ll be on the field too much, especially in altitude. This will make Manning even more dangerous than he already is.

RECAP: I think the 2013 Broncos need to be treated like the 2007 Patriots. Their offense is so awesome that they’re going to keep covering the spread until Vegas adjusts and sets the line closer to -20. I think we’ll look back in two months and ask ourselves why this spread wasn’t around -17. I’m going with Denver for two units.

SURVIVOR PICK: Go here for my Survivor Pick Advice later tonight for some analysis. I’m taking Denver this week.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Again, treat the Broncos like the 2007 Patriots. This may seem like a ton of points, but it won’t be when the Broncos are up 14-3 at the end of the first quarter.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.

No surprise where the public is going with this.

Percentage of money on Denver: 74% (46,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Peyton Manning is 3-6 ATS as a non-divisional home favorite of 12+. ???

Opening Line: Broncos -11.

Opening Total: 55.

Weather: .

Week 4 NFL Pick: Broncos 44, Eagles 27
Broncos -10 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Over 57 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Survivor Pick (3-0)
Broncos 52, Eagles 20

New England Patriots (3-0) at Atlanta Falcons (1-2)
Line: Falcons by 2.5. Total: 49.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Falcons -1.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 3): Pick.
Sunday, Sept. 29, 8:30 ET
Discuss Week 4 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Patriots.

I used to love making fun of GameCenter comments. The people on there were such idiots. There were even perverts like Aaron3619, who always asked chicks for their pictures so that he could carry them around. I actually met my ex-girlfriend, Awesome Girl Who Loves Football, this way. We exchanged e-mails about Aaron3619 and then hit it off, ultimately meeting in July 2012.

I planned to mess with Aaron3619 as a fake user named TexasGirl1234, but NFL.com shut down its GameCenter and implemented Facebook comments instead. This enraged me, so get revenge, I made a fake Facebook account named Mario Migelini to troll people. Other readers followed suit and made fake accounts of their own.

I’ve added a second fake account this year – Vivian Williamson. This is based off of Miss Vivian, a security guard at the Philadelphia International Airport, whom I’ve written about in Jerks of the Week (click the link to read about her).

Go here to see all of the NFL.com Troll Posts from myself and other trollers.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The Patriots have had their offensive struggles this season, but things are about to change for two reasons. Danny Amendola and Rob Gronkowski will be back soon. It’s sounding as if both will be game-time decisions. Even if they both sit out yet another week, New England’s scoring attack will improve because it’s not battling a tough defense for the first two in weeks. Both the Jets and Buccaneers had the personnel to bottle up the Patriots. The Falcons are too banged up to do that.

Atlanta is missing starting linebackers Sean Weatherspoon and Kroy Biermann. This forced Akeem Dent and someone named Joplo Bartu to play extensively at Miami this past Sunday. Another unknown named Paul Worrilow (wasn’t he the bad guy from this past season of True Blood?) had to play a third of the snaps. The results were disastrous, as Ryan Tannehill and Lamar Miller had their way with Atlanta’s defense.

Tom Brady is obviously better than Tannehill. His supporting cast isn’t as good – though it’s improving – so I figure the two will cancel out if Amendola and Gronkowski are sidelined again.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: The Falcons’ injuries extend to this side of the ball. Steven Jackson will be out again, while left tackle Sam Baker and Roddy White are both iffy. The former is questionable, while the latter hasn’t been anything more than a decoy thus far.

All three players will have a huge impact on this game. Jackson’s absence will force the Falcons to go with a committee of Jacquizz Rodgers and Jason Snelling again. This worked at Miami, but the Dolphins lost several players to injury during the contest. The Patriots are a decent 15th versus the rush (3.91 YPC), so they should be able to keep Rodgers and Snelling in check.

Baker will obviously be needed to block Chandler Jones, who has three sacks in the past two weeks. White, meanwhile, would give New England’s secondary, currently ranked fourth versus aerial attacks (5.83 YPA), something to worry about. As it stands now, the only major threat in the Falcon receiving corps is Julio Jones. The Patriots’ defensive backfield should be able to handle one stud and other pedestrian players.

RECAP: The Patriots will be an ascending team going forward, so they’re appealing to me in this matchup. I also love getting Brady as an underdog; he’s 16-7 against the spread since 2003 when getting points.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’ll add a unit if we can get +3 (it might climb to that spread inthe late evening). I love Brady in an underdog role.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge.

The Vegas. Edge: Patriots.

The public is betting the Falcons.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 71% (47,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

Patriots are 16-8 ATS on the road vs. NFC opponents since 2001.

Tom Brady is 150-49 as a starter (114-80 ATS).

Tom Brady is 9-4 ATS in domes.

Tom Brady is 16-7 ATS as an underdog since 2003.

Matt Ryan is 25-14 ATS at home.

Mike Smith is 18-7 ATS after a loss.

Opening Line: Falcons -1.5.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Dome.

Week 4 NFL Pick: Patriots 24, Falcons 20
Patriots +2.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Under 50 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Patriots 30, Falcons 23

Miami Dolphins (3-0) at New Orleans Saints (3-0)
Line: Saints by 7. Total: 49.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Saints -6.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 3): Saints -8.
Monday, Sept. 30, 8:30 ET
Discuss Week 4 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Saints.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have Mike Tirico and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, annoying guys like Charles Davis and senile guys like Bob Greise. Here’s what it would sound like if those six clowns (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of New Orleans, home of the Saints. Tonight, the Saints play the Dolphins in a game I don’t care about because my Eagles sucked on Thursday night. Besides, I’m looking at this Miami roster, guys, and I don’t know any of these people. Ryan Tannehill? Never heard of him. Lamar Miller? Probably sucks. Mike Wallace? There’s a Mike Wallace on the Steelers, so this guy is the worse version of him. Guys, can we all agree that my Eagles should be playing every Monday night?

Emmitt: Morton, the Steeler actually traded for Mike Williams in the free agent periods during the offseason. But this beg the question: If the offseason call the offseason, why do the regular season not call the onseason?

Reilly: I’m trying to wrap my head around this, Emmitt. You’re saying Mike Wallace was traded to the Dolphins? I must have missed that one. No wonder it says “Mike Wallace, MIA” on my fantasy roster. I thought ESPN made a mistake.

Millen: Someone say fantasy football? I don’t get fantasy football with all of these drafts and cheat sheets. In my world, all you need for fantasy football are some juicy kielbasas, a couple of 100-percent USDA Men and a nice, quiet hotel room, and you’re good to go.

Davis: Actually, Matt, there are many different types of fantasy football leagues. There’s the standard version, but you can have eight, 10, 12, 14, 16, 18 or 20 teams. Then you can have PPR and two-quarterback leagues. There are three-receiver formats as well. I’m even in a two-tight end league with my friend Olga. Then there are standard snake drafts and auctions. Some leagues re-draft positions every two rounds. And let’s not forget the keeper and the dynasty leagues! Keepers differ from dynasty in that you can only keep a certain amount of players. You can also mix these formats. For instance, there are auction, PPR keeper leagues out there!

Millen: Charles, I didn’t hear anything you said except “two tight ends.” This has piqued my interest. How can I get involved?

Edwards: HE MEANS TWO TIGHT END PLAYERS… NOT TWO TIGHT END A**ES… TWO TIGHT END PLAYERS! PLAYERS! PLAYERS! NOT A**ES! NOT BEHINDS! NOT BUTTS! NOT A**ES! PLAYERS! PLAYERS! THE POSITION ON THE FIELD! THE POSITION THAT BLOCKS! THE POSITION THAT CATCHES! THE POSITION THAT GRONKOWSKI PLAYS! THE POSITION THAT GRAHAM PLAYS! NOT THE PART OF THE BODY! NOT WHERE THE KIELBASAS GO! UNLESS THE TIGHT ENDS EAT THE KIELBASAS! THEN IT’S RIGHT! THE POSITION IS RIGHT! THE POSITION GOTTA BE RIGHT! GOTTA BE RIGHT! GOTTA… uhh… umm…

Reilly: Shut up, Herm, no one cares. What is it, Bob? Why do you keep nudging me?

Griese: I used to play for the Dolphins.

Reilly: That’s all you have to offer? Great, just great.

Tollefson: Now, now, Kevin, Bob brings up something important. The Miami Dolphins’ cheerleaders are renowned for being the hottest. Perhaps Bob can introduce some to me so I can have them cook and clean while walking around naked. This is only natural for women, so they’d be more than pleased to do this for me. All I have to do is be introduced to them.

Griese: You want me to introduce you to them? But how? I never played for the Dolphins. Maybe I will once I graduate from Purdue.

Reilly: Great, the senile, old man thinks it’s 1960 again. These next three hours are really going to suck. We’ll be back after a word from our local sponsors!

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Drew Brees struggled at Tampa back in Week 2, throwing a terrible pick in the red zone that gave the Buccaneers a highly undeserved cover. However, it was obvious he’d bounce back last week because he was back in the Superdome, where’s unstoppable.

Brees should be able to continue to light up the scoreboard. The Dolphins ordinarily have a solid defense, but they’re just too banged up. The most prominent injured player, Cameron Wake, might be able to play, but he’ll certainly be limited. Several other defenders – linebacker Koa Misi, cornerback Dimitri Patterson and nose tackle Paul Soliai – all of whom are starters – are listed as questionable. Defenses need to have all hands on deck to slow down Brees and his weapons, but Miami just doesn’t have the healthy personnel to do that right now.

MIAMI OFFENSE: Ryan Tannehill and the Saints’ defense. Both are legitimate. First, Tannehill: He had some erratic passes last week, but he came through in the clutch. The Falcons dominated the game and probably deserved to win, but Tannehill somehow willed his team to victory. It was quite impressive.

The Saints’ defense will make that difficult, however. I never thought I’d say that but New Orleans is playing well on this side of the football. Its pass rush is the key; John Jenkins, Junior Galette and especially Cameron Jordan have all wreaked havoc upon opposing passers. That should continue in this game because Miami’s offensive line has been brutal. The team surrendered a ridiculous five sacks to the Falcons last week despite the fact that Atlanta had just two sacks through the first couple of weeks. Only Jacksonville has allowed more sacks than the Dolphins thus far (14).

Miami will have to take pressure off Tannehill by establishing the run. It should have success in this regard. While the Saints have improved against the pass, they still struggle at defending the rush; they’re dead last in that department, yielding 5.36 yards per carry.

RECAP: The Saints are awesome at home, and they’re especially potent at night, owning a 9-3 spread record in the Superdome during the Brees era. It’s going to be a madhouse on Monday. The Dolphins, who are unfamiliar with playing in that sort of crowd noise, won’t know what hit them.

I’ll bet two units on the Saints this time, as the spread is a tad lower than what it should be. I feel like the dumb media has brainwashed the public into thinking the Dolphins are awesome because of their 3-0 record. Don’t get me wrong; Miami is a talented squad, but it’s not the type that should be 3-0. The Dolphins had trouble putting the Browns away and were dominated at home by the Falcons. They won in Indianapolis, but that Colt team was more of the one that nearly lost to Oakland rather than the one that beat up San Francisco (pre-Trent Richardson trade).

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still like the Saints for two units even though the spread has risen to -7. Cameron Wake is out, which is huge.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge.

The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.

A big lean on the host.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 73% (76,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

Dolphins are 16-5 ATS on the road vs. teams with a winning record since 2007.

Dolphins are 7-13 ATS vs. NFC teams since 2008.

Underdog is 41-19 ATS in the Dolphins’ last 60 games.

Saints are 28-13 ATS as a home favorite since 2007.

Saints are 9-3 ATS in night home games in the Drew Brees era.

Drew Brees is 34-21 ATS off back-to-back wins.

Opening Line: Saints -5.5.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Dome.

Week 4 NFL Pick: Saints 27, Dolphins 17
Saints -7 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Under 49 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Saints 38, Dolphins 17

Week 4 NFL Picks – Early Games
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Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Moneyline Underdog: Jets +160 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$50

Teaser: Cardinals +8.5, Chargers +8 (2 units) — Correct; +$200

NFL Picks - Nov. 20

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 12, 2024): 11-3 (+$2,020)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-1 (+$580)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-0 (+$1,400)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 12, 2024): 6-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 12, 2024): +$905

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 89-82-6, 52.0% (-$2,545)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 22-26-1, 45.8% (-$600)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-17, 51.4% (-$155)
2024 Season Over-Under: 82-82-2, 50.0% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$740

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)